WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.

No, you're probably right– I just freaked, rather, when I saw that last post.

But just from his recent posting, I'd say Menel stands a pretty good chance of being the third wolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, you're probably right– I just freaked, rather, when I saw that last post.

But just from his recent posting, I'd say Menel stands a pretty good chance of being the third wolf.

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?

Well, to get her trust, I suppose... it's true this isn't the greatest time to use that kind of ploy, as it would leave him fewer options for the next Day– but then whatever Menel is, I don't think his naivete about tactics is necessarily an act.

[Nerwen]

And look at #271. A lupine "counting-slip"? You know what I mean: wolves sometimes accidentally subtract themselves from the total number of baddies left.

I don't say that's proof– innocents can make "wolf-slips" too– as we've seen all too recently– but it is another reason for Menel to be looking a lot worse to me all of a sudden.

EDIT:X'd with Menel.

[Kath]

I have no idea toDay. Nog, Shasta, Menel, Nerwen.

Day 4:
Nog - states no one tried to save sally and thought this was odd. Then responds to Agan's post about Legate possibly being a wolf who had to vote early. Says if Menel was the last wolf it would make sense that sally was left alone to die - I didn't follow this yesterDay. Can you explain further Nog? Says Shasta had both gone against sally and spoken of Legate as being suspicious - so perhaps not the third wolf.

Shasta - despite being pretty determined about Legate, suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves. Would like to see his opinion on this toDay now we know Legate is a wolf. Arguing more against Menel being a wolf. Points out we have slightly been assuming Menel innocent based on the feeling Inzil might have dreamt him.

Menel - thinks Nog and Shasta aren't wolves as their votes put sally in the lead. Thinks Nerwen's late vote for sally could be wolf-on-wolf - fair enough, weren't many options by that point. Votes Legate following the general reasoning of yesterDay. All these possibility/elimination posts are a bit off. He did seem to discount everyone but Legate at one point, leaving no third wolf. Then almost re-did it and came up with Nerwen and Shasta as other options. I mean, I agree, I just think it was oddly done. Votes Legate.

Nerwen - points out that sally nearly was saved and Nog nearly died instead. It was only the exact last minute votes of Shasta, Nog and Nerwen that stopped it and it seems they pretty much all cross posted. Was the rule that whoever hit the most votes first was lynched? Nog voting for sally to put them at a draw could have been an attempt to limit the damage from sally's POV the next day if both were wolves. Shasta and Nerwen's simply throwing a wolf under the bus because they believed the other innocent was going for sally. Asks if the last wolves are Kath and Menel, thus ignoring Legate. Can't believe this would be deliberate but might just not have thought about it. Takes back idea but thinks Menel could be the last wolf. A 'lupine counting slip' in 271 - well, potentially.

To me, Nerwen or Menel feel more likely. Menel is perhaps getting a little overwhelmed with last wolf duties. Legate wasn't around yesterDay to give any guidance or give Menel something to go with. I think Nerwen's sudden 'Menel and Kath' thing was a bit like her earlier Day's 'so and so is suspicious - go' thing. Poking for reaction and seeing whether she can run with it.

This is where I am right now. There is another hour before I have to vote. If anyone else could talk in the meantime that would be fab.

[Kath]

Seems that was a vain hope then.

++NERWEN

There felt to have been a bit of a forced push for a Menel-wagon, largely led by Nerwen and Shasta. I had seen more to worry me in Nerwen thus the vote.

[Nogrod]

Oh my... after a busy day I have spent the evening both watching football and writing Arda Cup match-ups - and totally forgotten about this.

Soo, we have the first vote (one out of five) already. And no one else posting but Kath thus far, and she is voting early again... Bad. (yes RL is nasty with some deadlines, but still)

I need to take at least some time now to try and give my two cents on this - even if the Arda Cup match I'm writing is in a really tight situation...


Hoping to hear from you others as well!

[Nogrod]

Kath - probably isn't a wolf. For mainly two reasons.

First she didn't follow Legate's vote on me on D3 when she had a chance - and the wolves were so close to winning the game at that point that she should have tried it were she a wolf. Now I think it was Shasta who asked whether she had suspected me earlier aka. would that have been a too hard a turnaround from her to suddenly vote me. But I think there were enough reasons to vote me on D3 as I had been one of the leading forces lynching two innocents in a row: so I don't think it would have been too risky for her to say "Yeah, Nog looks so bad now that I'm going with him as I'm short on time"...

Secondly she voted Legate quite early (again) yesterDay, but there was already a vote on Legate by Agan and at least I had voiced suspicion on him. So if she is a wolf, she would have wilfully aided with the downfall of her only mate - and on that Day she had actually made a more or less full analysis of us people left in the game, so she could have picked any other line of reasoning if she needed to help her comrade and willing not to be left alone...


Menel - I do find quite suspicious. At times I'm kind of feeling he's just a bit out of touch (see his discussion with Nerwen yesterDay) but there are things making me suspect him - apart from the general suspicion he seems to gather now as he did then years ago...

First, him having time-zone changing problems when Sally was lynched would fit nicely into the question why was Sally not helped (or why Sally possibly looked forwards to someone saving her at the last minutes - as she didn't know about the problems Menel was having?), as he didn't vote at all on D3 when Sally was lynched.

Secondly this little quote from yesterDay spotted by Aganzir really makes all my radars go red (if she hit it right, I will bow to her for that, helping us from beyond the grave):

Originally Posted by Menel

If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Just how on earth could anyone but a wolf-fellow of Legate say something like that?

Actually it looks so bad I'm almost ready to vote Menel now... (didn't know it when I started this post intending to make a few checks on all of you)

Well, I'll try to check Nerwen and Shasta for a few points I have in mind as well, but Menel looks pretty bad, I must say.