WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Shastanis Althreduin]

After re-reading the thread, I found something of interest.

If the wolf is Kath, then Sally's vote the day she died doesn't make sense - she would have known that she was the last wolf voting, therefore she couldn't have expected any last-minute help to lynch Nogrod, so why would she vote him? This scenario makes more sense if Sally was hoping for some help from Nerwolf.

However, the counterpoint to that is, Nog was also one of the last to vote, and obviously wasn't going to vote himself - and was pretty obviously going to vote Sally - so on the surface it doesn't look like there was much point in Sally voting Nog either way. It's possible she was just going for the misdirection factor, though I don't know how likely it is she voted specifically to implicate Nerwen. Probably not too likely.

This game makes my head hurt.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, this is a slow day. I have to go to work, but I'll be back in a few hours.

[Kath]

Shasta:
Day 1 - thinks it unlikely Menel would ask questions he could have got answered by wolf-mates during the Night. Thinks the wolves would benefit from keeping attention off the Cobbler - this was continuing the earlier debate. Was suspicious of Pitch for questioning the conversation around the Cobbler. Says G55 was the third to throw suspicion at Menel - well technically yes but as she cross posted with Nerwen they were joint second really and so equally pingy for that. Didn't like Agan's hypocritical attitude toward talking about the Cobbler. Wonders why Inzil wasn't hounded for captain obvious statements. Good point about voting Pitch despite saying his vote was reasonable. Bad point about backing off Menel - based on assumption entirely from Shasta.
Vote: G55

Day 2 - points out that sally blew G55's 'savage blow' comment into something much bigger. sally is in no danger at this point so a Shasta-wolf has nothing to lose by point this out. Thinks G55 looks innocent. Questions my stupid Pitch moment. You were following my train of thought I'm afraid - thought could be wolf buddies, then thought that it was unlikely because G55 had voted for him ... then realised he was dead ... Questions about Nog, Menel and Lommy. Suspicious of sally. This could begin a build up to later throwing sally to the lynch mob. At the end of the post before the list post he has G55 down as being innocent. In the next post he says after Nog catching the last slip she now looks suspicious. But there is no mention of cross posting and Nog had not posted in between. This is odd.
Vote: G55

Day 3 - points out that sally fits Menel's wolf description. Continuing build up of suspicion to avoid it himself? Good forward planning if so! Points out he voted for G55 the Day before as well so he actually had wanted to lynch G55. Points out that either Legate or Kath must have been a wolf for the wolves not to jump on an early vote. Correct as it turns out. Despite earlier point sally out himself is now reluctant to agree that she is suspicious given she has been around so little. Seriously stalled at the end. I know he gave an explanation but he pushed and pushed that deadline with 'ooh but wait' comments.
Vote: sally (cross-posting with Nog on the deadline)

Day 4 - explains that he'd suddenly thought sally was the Ranger. Suspicion of Menel as he may have been coasting under the radar and because he appeared to leave himself as the third wolf in his post.
Vote: Legate

Day 5 - thinks Menel is picking on him because he wasn't around to defend himself. Shasta says I can't be considered innocent just because I didn't follow Legate's vote. I entirely disagree here. Had I been a wolf and knew we could have won the game this Day I would have.
Vote: Menel (looks like I would have been second choice)

Nerwen:
Day 1 - second person who says Menel is stating the obvious but perhaps this is due to not having played in a while. Explains Agan's use of 'her' to G55. Points out to Inzil that G55 had cross posted with her - thus two consecutive complaints about Menel. Mentions Menel again, saying he repeated his statements and so got more attention for it than Inzil. Still questions G55's confusion about Agan.
No vote.

Day 2 - So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss. Not a fan of this comment as previously mentioned. Asks why G55 doesn't think the wolves saw Inzil as the Seer. Questions G55 a lot over a comment which looks fairly clear. G55 thought the wolves hadn't definitely determined that Inzil was the Seer, but rather thought he'd be a good kill who might happen to be the Seer. Catches G55 saying 'Galwolf'. This did look pretty damning at the time, though Nerwen is still leaving an out. Says Nog is high on her list of wolf suspects toDay - despite saying nothing about him since that first comment. Reluctantly says sally could be the Cobbler, or Lommy might be.
Vote: G55

Day 3: Can't figure out why we're 'doomed'. If a wolf ought to have a good grasp of the numbers so makes sense. Points out sally has misunderstood Nog. Didn't like Shasta or G55's 'remove the distraction' theory. I kind of agree but at the same time we'd have had another full Day of it if G55 hadn't been lynched. Questions Nog - without giving an opinion. Pooh-poohs Agan's sally suspicion. Defends herself against me. Now explains Nog suspicion - basically that he explained himself too many times. At the time, maybe, but Nog is particularly verbose and circular. Questions Menel for not thinking about wolf-on-wolf votes. Says Shasta, Legate and sally could be the wolves as they hadn't wanted to vote G55 until sally was an option. Totally spot on or giving two out of three?
Votes: sally (cross posted with Shasta - not Nog - knew she was lynching sally with this vote)

Day 4 - rescinds idea that Shasta hadn't wanted to vote G55, after Nog says he'll look at it. Points out the sally lynch wasn't a sure-fire thing. Says Legate being a wolf does not rule Kath out. Says Menel just repeats other people's points. Attacks Menel for not thinking about wolf-on-wolf votes.
Vote: Legate (with massive caveat)

Day 5 - dealt with all that jazz. Still opposes Menel's wolf-on-wolf/not wolf-on-wolf voting system thing. Wonders if Legate's massive defense of Menel makes him a wolf. No. I mean we know that now, but no anyway. Twisty turny Menel round in circles. He said he thought it was interesting that Shasta had remained suspicious to him the whole time, at this point only one person can be a wolf, he thinks then that it is Shasta, putting Nerwen in the clear. Why is this a problem to Nerwen? Aaah, am now understanding problems from yesterDay - didn't collate my end suspicions into 'not my brain' format. 'Largely led by Nerwen and Shasta' did not mean I thought both were wolves - indeed, how could they be? It should be been followed by 'and of the two I think Nerwen is the wolf doing this and Shasta less likely to be'.
Vote: Menel (again with the caveat)

Posting. Reading.

[Kath]

Nerwen has ripped into those lynchees who were innocent. Those who were wolves got off pretty lightly in comparison. G55 and Menel got hounded. sally and Legate didn't.

[Kath]

Don't like Shasta's wavering around sally at the last minute. Suddenly realised she could be saved but had to hold off other votes? Too risky really, and he'd shown no 'ready to vote' suspicion of Nog so couldn't go down that route. Would have been less suspicious really to have just voted and have done with it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Checking in from phone.

Kath, don't you think it's a little odd that I'd spend all that time being suspicious of Sally, as a wolf, only to turn around and try to save her at the last second? This is one of those "if I were a wolf" moments, but I like to think I wouldn't be that obvious.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

If the wolf is Kath, then Sally's vote the day she died doesn't make sense - she would have known that she was the last wolf voting, therefore she couldn't have expected any last-minute help to lynch Nogrod, so why would she vote him? This scenario makes more sense if Sally was hoping for some help from Nerwolf.

However, the counterpoint to that is, Nog was also one of the last to vote, and obviously wasn't going to vote himself - and was pretty obviously going to vote Sally - so on the surface it doesn't look like there was much point in Sally voting Nog either way. It's possible she was just going for the misdirection factor, though I don't know how likely it is she voted specifically to implicate Nerwen. Probably not too likely.

Yes– Sally's last post makes more sense if there was a wolf left to vote– I've said that myself. But you see: from my point of view I can easily substitute "Shasta" for "Nerwen" in the above, can't I? Only if you're the last wolf, why would you throw the lynch like that? All you'd have had to do was follow Sally's vote on Nogrod– with the tiebreaker rule, that would have been almost certain death for him. After that, he could have been saved only if he and I had voted for Sally *and* Menel had turned up at the last minute and followed suit. But then, if you don't realise that now, my dearest, I don't suppose you realised that then...

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Checking in from phone.

Kath, don't you think it's a little odd that I'd spend all that time being suspicious of Sally, as a wolf, only to turn around and try to save her at the last second? This is one of those "if I were a wolf" moments, but I like to think I wouldn't be that obvious.

Thing is, my heart– it's now clear that the wolves did *something* darned odd on Day 3.

Which is actually re-stating the puzzle we've had before us ever since: theoretically, the wolves could have won on Day 3, with a co-ordinated effort– but no such effort was made. Why not? Menel's being furry would have provided a simple answer– but we now know he wasn't.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes– Sally's last post makes more sense if there was a wolf left to vote– I've said that myself. But you see: from my point of view I can easily substitute "Shasta" for "Nerwen" in the above, can't I? Only if you're the last wolf, why would you throw the lynch like that? All you'd have had to do was follow Sally's vote on Nogrod– with the tiebreaker rule, that would have been almost certain death for him. After that, he could have been saved only if he and I had voted for Sally *and* Menel had turned up at the last minute and followed suit. But then, if you don't realise that now, my dearest, I don't suppose you realised that then...



Thing is, my heart– it's now clear that the wolves did *something* darned odd on Day 3.

Which is actually re-stating the puzzle we've had before us ever since: theoretically, the wolves could have won on Day 3, with a co-ordinated effort– but no such effort was made. Why not? Menel's being furry would have provided a simple answer– but we now know he wasn't.

Which is something I still disagree on with Kath -

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta says I can't be considered innocent just because I didn't follow Legate's vote. I entirely disagree here. Had I been a wolf and knew we could have won the game this Day I would have.

Much like things my pearl and I have said today, this is an 'if I were a wolf, this is how I'd act' statement. Which may be true, but isn't something provable.

I think I'm beginning to see the answer to that puzzle, though, bright shining moon. It may simply lie in the fact that the remaining wolf wasn't willing to link herself to Legate and Sally irreparably with a vote for Nogrod (obvious, I know - but no one could have foreseen the fact that Menel would forget to vote entirely.)

[Kitanna]

I had hoped to write longer death narrations, but the day the game started was the day my co-worker decided she needed surgery and so I got extra stress piled on. Then of course when she deems she's healthy enough to come back the game ends. Oh well, no more excuses I do hope you all enjoyed the short narrations.

I'm happy with the way this game turned out well. Congratulations to everyone for a game well played.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen has ripped into those lynchees who were innocent. Those who were wolves got off pretty lightly in comparison. G55 and Menel got hounded. sally and Legate didn't.

I didn't "rip into" G55, in my opinion. I did "rip into" Menel– because he was behaving horribly suspiciously and couldn't give a decent account of himself– and I was the only one around for much of that time.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and "factually incorrect", Kath– well, for a start, that we all x-posted at the Day 3 deadline. I had already explained that this was not the case, and that therefore *as far as I knew*, I was casting the kill-vote on Sally.

I'm sorry if I was rude, but frankly I was getting quite fed-up by that kind of thing from you, Kath, and as I said I had to get it off my chest in the hope of not being prejudiced against you later on.

EDIT:word left out