Arda Cup Football 2013

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Tar-Eldar Network Television takes a look at various teams’ financial and tactical situations before assessing what moves they would make based on those two factors.

AC Beleriand

Financial situation:
AC Beleriand would be hard-pressed to keep the Eöl/Beren/Fingolfin trio while adding talent to their squad. Which of those stars they would let go depends partly on how they would reshape their squad. Alternatively, they could stand pat and give their current squad one more run at the cup.

Tactical situation:
AC Beleriand missed last year’s Arda Cup final due to a combination of two things: an inspired Arien performance and the failure of their plan B against Real Valinor. While Fëanor argued, ‘We don't really need a plan B; we just need to execute plan A perfectly,’ the fact is things don't always go according to plan on the pitch. Teams always need a plan on how to cope with going behind.

AC Beleriand’s largely-successful philosophy hinges on possession, even sacrificing attacking width to pack the middle of the pitch with four players to increase ball retention. Fëanor counted on Beren, Fingolfin, and Ecthelion’s impressive work rate to give his team attacking options down the flanks, despite the fact that they also had other duties. Against Real Valinor in the semifinals, the only time AC Beleriand had to come from behind, it was a common sight to see Fingolfin and Ecthelion so close to the Real penalty box, crossing for Beren and Fëanor as well as cutting in from the flanks to take shots themselves. But Nienna and Tilion intelligently bypassed the AC Beleriand pressing game by hoofing the ball towards Arien, Míriel, and Nerdanel whenever they recovered possession, leaving those formidable forwards with a three-on-two opportunity against the AC Beleriand centre-backs.

So what if Fëanor could find a wide midfielder who can both hug the touchline and help with the midfield battle, giving them a plan B that won’t include sending the full-backs forward? And what if he can find two of them?

Conclusion:
Fingolfin still has a year left on his contract, and Eöl has signed a new deal worth the same as last year’s. Beren, on the other hand, still hasn’t committed to the deal on the table (reportedly worth 13 million). Fëanor has shown no sign of improving his offer and is rumoured to be deep in talks with a pair of wide midfielders from the house of Finarfin. It seems that despite his talk of not needing a plan B, Fëanor has seen the wisdom of adding variety to their already-formidable attacking threats.

Nargothrond

Financial situation:
Nargothrond have already taken heavy losses last year, yet they still need to spend to improve their squad. They could let Glaurung walk, banking on Finrod and Gwindor to carry the scoring load, then use the savings on improving their defence. Unfortunately no team have made offers to Glaurung. Meanwhile, Gwindor has picked up the one-year option on his contract.

Tactical situation:
Nargothrond’s defence has famously allowed five goals against AC Beleriand, as well as four against Doriath. Bëor is a sieve at goal—he was never the best, and he got worse as time went on. The defenders in front of him were woefully disorganised, often uncoordinated in setting their offside traps and failing to cover for each other. The very first thing Nargothrond need is a vocal backline leader, either a goalkeeper or a defender, who can organise the four other defensive players.

Their midfielders, belying the results, have actually played well. Unfortunately, they have been asked to do too much, sitting in front of defence while linking up with the attack. The latter should have been Finrod’s job, but with Glaurung’s lack of form, he took up higher and more central positions to provide an additional goalscoring threat in the box—he scored half of Nargothrond’s six goals.

In short, Nargothrond is a poorly constructed team, and only the talent of Finrod, Gwindor, and the midfielders kept them within a distant shout of qualifying last year.

Conclusion:
It all starts with improving Nargothrond’s defence. A better backline would give their midfielders freedom to help on the attack, giving them goalscoring chances even if they retain an out-of-form Glaurung as centre forward. (Coincidentally, dropping Glaurung from the squad would give them cap freedom to overhaul their defence.)

Gondolin

Financial situation:
Gondolin took a minor hit last year, but not enough to force them to cut wages. However, they can't hold on to both Maeglin and Gothmog at their current price (20 million each) while improving their squad, though Gothmog is expected to leave the club anyway, perhaps returning to Angband or playing for Anfauglith. They can replace him with the wealth of talent that once called the hidden kingdom home, like Glorfindel, Tuor, or Eärendil.

Tactical situation:
Like Nargothrond, they need a backline leader to organise their poor defence. (Rog, even at his best, was never a vocal player.) They also need a better holding midfield pair than Salgant and Meleth. Salgant is a good scrapper, but he doesn't have the positional discipline to sit in front of his defence. Against Eriador he chased Arveleg all over the pitch, leaving Arassuil too much space to create Glorfindel's opener. Against AC Beleriand, he drew two yellow cards after committing cynical fouls to stop counterattacks, being out of position to contain AC Beleriand's midfield runs. And Meleth is a deep-lying playmaker, not a defensive midfielder. She lacks pace and gets overawed with direct attacks through the centre of the pitch.

Their attack is well-balanced, with Duilin providing the midfield runs, Elemmakil the width, Gothmog the powerful presence up front, and Maeglin the running into space to drag defenders out of position.

Conclusion:
There is little that needs to be changed to improve Gondolin—a backline leader and a good defensive midfielder would probably be enough to make them a possible quarterfinalist. Their major problem is finding those players. A minor problem would be dealing with the possible departure of Gothmog. Tuor, Eärendil, or even Húrin could take his place as a penalty box presence—although according to MESPN, Eärendil has already signed a new contract with the Havens.

Inter Beleriand

Financial situation:
Inter Beleriand lost 10 million last year, not a huge amount for the team’s financial backers, but still a concern. They were expected at the very least to advance from their group, which would have made them 10 million richer instead of poorer. If they wish to improve their squad, their wage bill would grow—most of their players are already on low wages, and their highly-paid players didn’t underperform enough to take huge pay cuts.

Tactical situation:
If we count Himring as their predecessor, Inter have been eliminated two years in a row on goal difference. The two situations have been eerily similar—they were beaten by the group favourite (Doriath/Eriador), drew against their rivals for qualification (Tirion/Gondolin), and defeated the weakest team in their group (SBU/Arnor) by a smaller goal difference than their rivals’. Inter’s defence has been fine, though not particularly impressive, limiting Gondolin and Eriador to two goals, so their problem might be more on the other end. It is possible that Fingon and Maedhros could not carry the scoring load on their own; they need a third goalscorer.

Conclusion:
Rumours abound that Fingon is deep in contract talks with a talented and versatile attacking midfielder looking to be reunited with his father’s old teammates. And there are whispers that along with him would join an equally versatile wide player who could play as a winger or an attacking full-back. If these rumours were true, and if they could keep Turgon and the Balrog, then they would upgrade both their offence and defence in one move, moving them from Round of Sixteen contenders to long-shot cup contenders.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Tar-Eldar Network Television takes a look at various teams’ financial and tactical situations before assessing what moves they would make based on those two factors.

Tirion

Financial situation:
A team funded partly by their supporters, Tirion cannot afford to go on a spending spree to improve their squad. They need to know exactly which part (or parts) needs an upgrade. (As an added cost-cutting measure, Thorondor is expected to be cut loose, or at least take a severe pay cut.)

Tactical situation:
But it can be argued that, since they were eliminated more by the toughness of their group than by their lack of quality, it would be hard to judge their squad’s weakness. Their attack might be fine, judging by the two goals they scored against Huan and FC Valinor’s defence (although that was a game that no longer mattered, with FC Valinor already assured of advancing and Tirion already eliminated.) Finwë was the top performers in last year’s round of friendlies, scoring seven goals and creating two in four games; some believed that this was confirmation how much better Tirion would have done had they not been in the ‘group of death’.

Their more obvious weakness was the defence, having conceded seven goals in three games. Pundits said that they paid for their tactical naïveté, fielding a back three against established strike partnerships (FC Valinor’s Celegorm/Curufin, Real Valinor’s Arien/Míriel/Nerdanel, and Armenelos’s Ar-Pharazôn/Ar-Adûnakhôr) when a back four would have given them more security. But their choice of personnel may have been the bigger culprit there—none of Irimë, Elenwë, or Thorondor had any experience playing in a back three, and they were unsure how to coordinate their movements with wingbacks Findis and Anairë, leaving them covering too much ground.

Conclusion:
Aside from Thorondor, the other question mark on their squad is Eönwë—will he stay or would he leave, perhaps going to Valimar (a team in dire need of goalscoring)? They would most likely make changes to their defence, but knowing how drastic the changes would be, as well as whether they would also make changes to the other parts of their squad, is at best an exercise in guesswork.

Dwarves United

Financial situation:
Aside from Aulë, the financial supporters of Dwarves United probably consider the team a side project, and they might be keener to avoid a loss than giving them a chance at a good run. However, last year’s results might have given them some push to open the purse strings a little bit more to improve the squad.

Tactical situation:
So what do Dwarves United need? The three goals they scored in four games say that they need another goalscorer, or a striker who can hold the ball up, preferably both, much preferably in one player. Legolas’s goalscoring form last year was poor, and his hold-up play was terrible (which was explainable because he played more as a second striker for his other clubs). His offensive contribution was reduced to occupying the opposition centre-backs, while Gamil Zirak and Telchar occupied the full-backs and Dwarves United left-back Celebrimbor advanced to take up goalscoring positions. Anduin and Wilderland didn’t punish them for pushing Celebrimbor and Aulë higher up the pitch; their attackers were more concerned with helping their defence than exploiting Dwarves United’s undermanned defence. But Rohan weren’t so naïve; they kept Eorl and Helm high up the pitch leaving them with a two-on-two situation during counterattacks.

Their defence was fine. They conceded a little over a goal per game, and goalkeeper Bombur had a save rate of 78.3% (same as Huan’s). Aulë and Azaghâl formed a fine central defensive partnership, and Celebrimbor proved his pedigree by being one of the best attacking full-backs in the game, like his father before him. Durin was more conservative at right-back, slotting smoothly into the centre whenever Aulë advanced to offer an additional crossing target up front.

Conclusion:
The signing of Galadriel from Wilderland has been widely rumoured even before last year’s Arda Cup ended. Considering her solid form as an attacking midfielder, as well as Dwarves United’s lack of reliable goalscorers other than Celebrimbor, she would be expected to take up Gimli’s spot as central attacking midfielder. If that is indeed the case, then they have a good chance of qualifying for the knockout stage again this year.

The Sea

Financial situation:
The Sea’s main financial backers have deep pockets, making it unlikely that they would be forced to cut wages for any purpose other than squad improvement. They went out to an on-form Real Valinor in the Round of Sixteen, not a totally embarrassing loss. But a team with a nine-digit wage bill should be fighting for at least a semifinal slot, not squeaking past their group through penalties and then getting eliminated in the first knockout round.

Tactical situation:
The Sea’s defence looked fine, at least on paper. Ulmo and Ossë formed an established centre back partnership, both powerful and dominant in the air. The Vala was more comfortable marking and tackling forwards, while the Maia’s job was to sit on the edge of the box, make headed clearances and get last-ditch blocks in. Out wide, Salmar and Uinen had the pace to match wingers and the clever positioning to check their runs. In the actual games, however, they conceded seven goals in four games. The problem lay with the one on goal; Voronwë had an atrocious save rate of 63.16%, the fifth worst last year.

Their attack also looked fine on paper, with forward Tar-Minastir, wingers Tar-Meneldur and Tar-Aldarion, and attacking midfielder Vëantur, but they scored only five goals in four games (Ancalagon of Angband managed as much as an individual). The problem with it was that their build-up play was too ponderous, with their attackers spending too much time playing in front of the defence. This was due to playing two holding midfielders Tar-Ciryatan and Eriol, both of whom were better at recovering the ball than distributing it; they needed an extra touch or two to control the ball, and then needed to look up at their target then down at the ball before passing. The seconds they spent doing so gave defences time to get behind the ball. They need a deep-lying playmaker who can quickly identify the killer pass and execute it in one move.

Conclusion:
The Sea need two things to make their talents mesh: a goalkeeper behind their solid back four and a playmaker behind their talented front four. There are rumours that Ulmo is close to signing a goalkeeper of Númenórean descent who performed well in the last Arda Cup. If these rumours are true, then the Sea would be one more signing away from being a possible force in the competition.

Minas Tirith

Financial situation:
Minas Tirith are unique in that they have a socialist wage structure—all of their players agreed to take the same salary (8 million). This move helped foster the team solidarity that was the key to their fairy-tale advance, although it may have discouraged star talents from signing with them.

Tactical situation:
But the cohesion of Minas Tirith was refreshing for neutrals to see. Everyone defended, and everyone contributed to the attacking build-up. They fielded a compact 4-4-1-1 shape (with Faramir just behind lone forward Boromir I) that was difficult to break down and advanced as a unit when they pressed. But they simply didn’t park the bus, as underdogs were expected to do; they broke forward quickly and purposefully, with wide midfielders Mardil and Eärnur storming up the pitch to combine with Boromir I and Faramir, overrunning defences before they can get back into shape.

But they themselves had problems against teams sitting deep, a situation that often happened whenever they went behind. Organised defences simply didn’t give Minas Tirith’s attackers too much respect; they kept their formation and didn’t go out of their way to give any of them special attention. (Compare that to, say, Fëanor, who is familiar with situations like this.) Teams that were built on the cohesion of their personnel, like 2009 Mirkwood and 2012 Doriath, still had players who commanded a little more respect from the defence. If Minas Tirith wished to advance further into the tournament, they would do well to sign an Arda-class talent, unless they choose to bank on one of their players suddenly turning into one (like Anarion for Gondor).

Conclusion:
Signing a star player might upset Minas Tirith’s wage structure and do damage to the team solidarity that they fostered, but unless they count heavily on luck (that one of their players would become Arda-class, or that they would get lucky draws and/or lucky bounces in four knockout games), there is no other choice for this team to improve on their previous achievement.

[the phantom]

Pre-Tournament Tidbits From Eru
by Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

At a brief press conference last night, Eru gave a thumbs-up to this year's cup, and announced the new financials.

"The Downs team and Tol-In-Gaurhoth seem to be taking their roster demands in stride, and it looks like all the expensive squads are a bit more reasonably priced," said Eru, putting forth that the new team min & max and luxury tax rules have nudged the teams towards greater competitive balance.

When asked if he was happy with the amount of roster turnover, Eru said it was "just right", pointing out several stars or pairings that were staying put and then comparing it to previous years. "Arda Cup shouldn't just be a display of talent- or a trophy up for sale. This way there is more consistency and flavor to it all, and gives people everywhere a bigger reason to watch."

And looking at last year's numbers, overall attendance and viewership was indeed up, and thanks in part to the new viewing and stadium contracts Eru announced that Arda Cup would be paying out 75 million more this year- which brings the total award money to 2.56 billion. This change was a result of bringing the 1st place award money down to 135 million, in concert with raising the minimum award to 65 million. Eru felt this change was in keeping with the salary cap and competitive balance.

The mood at the press conference was cheery and celebratory, and one brave reporter *ahem* even had the cheek to ask Eru for a tournament prediction.

[Galadriel55]

As the team rosters are filling up, Morgoth was accused of letting too many cats on his team. “Telvido we can understand,” allowed the indignant voices, “he’s been around for a while and he sometimes even deserves his 9 million. But what about that sidekick Oikeroi?” The indignant voices snorted. “That cat doesn’t do anything, he just hangs around admiring Telvido and distracting everyone around him.”

Yet this is not all – recently a rumour came out that Umuiyan the cat will be completing the catty trio in the Angband team. The indignant voices became outraged. “I used to actually like this team,” and outraged indignant voice proclaimed, “but now it’s all catty! I have a feeling that there’s something cooking in that team. Next year,” he pronounced ominously, “Morgoth will not captain this team. If we do not do something about it, next year’s captain will be Telvido!”

However, some people are not as upset about the cat trio in the team. They predict that the trio will be on par with the (in)famous pairs of Nerdanel and Miriel, and of Celegorm and Curufin. They don’t care if the team is taken over by cats if it wins the Cup.

There is another accusation thrown at Umuiyan. The addition of this cat into the team makes the stats as follows: almost half the players’ names start with U! “It is udiculous!” the indignant voices continues whining indignantly. “Nobody allows so many players with the same initial on a team!” Umuriyan wished to respond to such unfair criticism. When the mic was brought to him, he launched unto a tirade that sounded like “mearrraw” repeated fourty-six and a half times.

Also, Oikeroi was caught eating cactuses.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

• It's official: AC Bel's Beren and Doriath's Lúthien have signed with Inter Beleriand for a currently undisclosed fee. Said team captain Maedhros: 'Beren will give our team an extra scoring punch and bring energy to our midfield, and Lúthien will give added solidity to our team's back line.' She is expected to slot in one of the full-back positions, left empty after Maedhros confirmed the departure of Balrog #5.
  
  
• AC Beleriand might have let go of the Man who gave them five goals and an assist, but Fëanor seems not to have batted an eyelash and signed Havens wide midfielders Angrod and Aegnor. The AC Bel captain refused to answer the media's questions after the announcement, but Angrod commented: 'It would be hard to fill in for a player like Beren, but uncle told us that we won't be expected to play as he did. He told us to play our way, our style.' The 'AC Bel needs a Plan B' debate might have been put to rest with these signings.
  
  
• Another husband-and-wife pair signs for the same team: FC Valinor midfielder Idril and Havens forward Tuor return to Gondolin, confirms team captain Maeglin. He also confirms that Gothmog has left the team, our second Balrog departure of this round-up. But let us digest this first: Maeglin and Tuor fielded as a strike partnership? Is this the magic of football?
  
  
• And now back to brothers: Valimar centre-back pairing Amrod and Amras, as well as Cup-winning centre-back Caranthir, who played a blinder in the finals (he should have made our 2nd All-Tournament Team instead of Nazgûl #6--our apologies), join their grandfather Finwë's Tirion squad. Finally, the team upon Túna has a real backbone to its defence. But are they playing three at the back again? Said Caranthir: 'I can play full-back; so can any of my brothers. Our parents taught us to be proficient in all aspects of the game.'
  
  
• Hithlum's Nienor has confirmed her tranfer to Finrod's Nargothrond--but without her brother, Túrin, it seems. Is Turambar's nemesis Glaurung still playing for the Cave Elves, then?
  
  
• The rest of the round-up: Finrod's sister Galadriel confirms that she had joined Dwarves United, returning to her original role as a goalkeeper. So, who will Dwarves United's signing-to-improve-their-offence be? / Gondor's Hyarmendacil passed a medical and completes his transfer to the Sea. Ulmo hopes that his signing would help improve their defence from last year. The previous goalkeeper Voronwë has moved to the midfield--could he be the playmaker the Sea needs? / Minas Tirith captain Denethor II confirms that his son Faramir has exercised his opt-out option and left the team. In his place as attacking midfielder is Rohan's Éomer. 'Our ancient allies have heeded our call,' the last ruling Steward said to the press. 'The same, sadly, cannot be said of my sons.'