Arda Cup Football 2013

[Boromir88]

Four friendly matches remained before all the media experts and analysts come out offering predictions and guides for the tournament. The stage was set for Arda Cup 2013 as teams got in their final tune up before the big lights were turned on.

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Some matches even had the feel of a tournament atmosphere, as was the case today between Angband and Tirion. There was little love between the players on these teams. It was a case where the end score doesn't really tell the full story.

Both offenses really went for the attack, as the action was often in the final thirds of the field and near each side's penalty box. But the defenses did a good job snuffing out passes and limitting quality shots, as most went harmlessly off target. The first half ended scoreless as the defenses were playing extremely rough with the opposing forwards. Caranthir was given a yellow for harsh tackle on Telvildo that sent the cat flying. And on the other end, while Morgoth kept his hands clean there was little doubt (in the minds of Tirion fans) that the harrassing and hacking Finwe was taking, was at Morgoth's command.

In the 2nd half, Tirion changed formations to a 4-5-1. In large part, probably fearing Morgoth had a sinister plot to severely injure Finwe just before the tournament. So Finwe dropped to the midfield, leaving Aredhel as the lone striker, but she was also a bit quicker and thus able to avoid Angband's defensive strategy of banging up Tirion's forwards.

This ended up working to Tirion's advantage as Aredhel got in close, after Caranthir led her into the box with a nice pass. Carcharoth decided too late to leave his line to snatch up the ball, and Aredhel had an easy task of sliding it passed the Angband-wolf.

But Angband had the tactics for another late game equalizer. Ancalagon and Morgoth were not easy foes to bang up and so they simply bullied their way through Caranthir and Tirion's defense to end the match 1-1.

Angband 1-1 Tirion
on target 3-4
tot shots 14-13
GOALS:
*59, 0-1 Aredhel (Caranthir)
*81, 1-1 Ancalagon (Morgoth)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Angband- Umuiyan, Uldor, Ulwarth
*Tirion- Amrod, Caranthir

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After a lackluster first round friendly Barad-Dur came into this with a little more fire, or at least their offense looked more on the same page. It paid off in goals too as Sauron made his presense known assisting Beruthiel on the game opening goal, and then scoring the game winner in the 74th minute.

Misty Mountains showed some good offensive capability as well though and they even out shot Barad-Dur. The Blue Wizards had a difficult time suppressing Durin's Bane, Azog and Narvi. But Sauron seems to have made a wise move by dumping the Mumakil keeper from last year and replacing it with Grishnakh. The long-limbed orc has shown he can swat away shots that threaten his goal.

Barad-Dur 2-1 Misty Mts
on target 6-6
tot shots 14-17
GOALS:
*31, 1-0 Beruthiel (Sauron)
*52, 1-1 Azog (DBane)
*74, 2-1 Sauron (Castamir)
YELLOW CARDS:
*BDur- Pallando, Herumor, Fellbeast#1
*MMts- William, Watcher, Rumil, Caradhras

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One of the games that truly seemed like a friendly as there is much brotherhood between the two teams on the field. That doesn't mean the crowd saw a boring game by any means. There were four good goals and they got to witness some promising idividuals shine. For Minas Tirith, Mardil scored both goals. This was not so surprising to the all-Gondorian crowd as the Good Steward has been scoring goals playing for his home city for years. More surprising was Meneldil for Gondor, who has always played as a defender or a defending midfielder. This year it seems Meneldil wants to have a larger role in the offense, or it could be Minas Tirith's defenders were too focused on halting the dangerous Eldacar and Anarion they were leaving too much space for Meneldil. But he made the most of that space.

Despite having more goals, the game just did not have the same feel as the Angband-Tirion game. Since those teams seriously did not like eachother, they had battled to the end and the tension never left. In this one, after Gondor brought the game level in 64th minute, both sides seemed to reach a gentlemen's agreement to pull back the offenses and knock the ball around until the final whistle, happy with the fair result and final work out before group rounds.

Gondor 2-2 Minas Tirith
on target 4-6
tot shots 14-13
GOALS:
*24, 0-1 Mardil (Tarandor)
*30, 1-1 Eldacar (Meneldil)
*38, 1-2 Mardil (Eomer)
*64, 2-2 Meneldil (Anarion)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Gondor- Ciryandil
*MTirith- Earnur, Tarandor

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After coming off a dominating 3-0 win over Doriath, the TIG faithful were more confident than ever, feeling they would devour yet another sissy Elven side, led by Olwe. I mean they made mincemeat of Elwe, and therefore believed Elwe's brother didn't stand a chance.

However, this Elven team also had some proud Numenorean defenders who were not going to be intimidated by this fearsome TIG team. Plus Olwe's teams have a pedigree of being technical masters in the passing game. If TIG was proud with how they controlled possession against Doriath, the Havens showed the wolves and wights what it truly meant to control the ball. The Havens had a string of 22 consecutive passes before Earendil finally hammered the ball in for a 1-0 lead.

The Havens would carry that lead to the half-time. The TIG fans were glad to only be down 1 goal (since it could have definitely been worse) but were perplexed to just how their team was going to be able to score when they couldn't hold posession long enough to even get a sniff at The Havens goal.

TIG was determined to equalise as quickly as possible and they got the goal when not even two full minutes elapsed in the 2nd. Thuringwethil batted in a close range shot off of LegateWight's cross. The Elven team was surprised at the speed and quickness this TIG side could score. But deserved or not, the game was tied.

The Havens went back to their quick passing game to try to reclaim the lead, but Shastawolf made some very nice saves to keep it tied. Spiritted on by Shastawolf's effort (and howling to tighten up) the defense-wolves did a better job shutting down the passing lanes and winning the ball.

Olwe's side was not backing down, but in this half The Havens was getting a good dose of their own medicine, as the TIG midfield began showing their own skill in the passing game. The Havens defenders had a difficult time winning the ball back and thus working it to their proven hammer upfront, Earendil. TIG came in one well calculated wave of attack after another, and finally got what would end up as the game-winner off the paws of Inzilwolf.

After TIG's 2nd half performance it was hard to argue with the result and the Elven side graciously accepted the defeat. In an unusual display of respect for the wolves, Cirdan approached the TIG bench to congratulate them. It appeared he went to scratch Nilpwolf behind the ears, but after the wolf stepped back, snarling, the Elf-lord decided a polite bow would be wiser.

The Havens 1-2 Tol In Gaurhoth
on target 5-6
tot shots 14-15
GOALS:
*31, 1-0 Earendil (Falastur)
*47, 1-1 Thuringwethil (LegateWight)
*69, 1-2 InzilWolf (NerWight)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Havens- Imrazor, ArZimrathan
*TIG- GaladriWight, NerWight, BoroWolf

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Power Rank:



The Power Ranking is based on the aggregate of offensive and defensive ranking--the lower the aggregate, the higher the rank. Ties are broken by a) win-draw-loss-record; b) goal differential; and c) goals scored.

The offensive ranking is based on the goals scored throughout the friendly matches. Ties are broken by a) greater number of shots made on target; and b) greater number of shots made.

The defensive ranking is based on the goals allowed throughout the friendly matches. Ties are broken by a) least number of shots allowed on target; and b) least amount of shots allowed.

Please note that the above ranking is based on the two rounds of friendly matches played by the teams, and does not reflect actual tournament performance.

Top Individual Performers:

GOALS + ASSISTS

3+0
Eärendil (The Havens)
Smaug (Erebor)
Mardil (Minas Tirith)

2+1
Maedhros (Inter Beleriand)
Gandalf (Shire-Bree United)
Eldacar (Gondor)
Glorfindel (Eriador)
Gwindor (Nargothrond)

2+0
Ar-Pharazôn (Armenelos)
Elros (Armenelos)
Aegnor (AC Beleriand)
Hador (Hithlum)
Tilion (Real Valinor)
Azog (Misty Mts)
Aredhel (Tirion)
Ancalagon (Angband)
Gothmog (Anfauglith)
Elladan (Imladris)
Thuringwethil (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
InzilWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)

1+2
Meneldil (Gondor)
Nienor (Nargothrond)

1+1
Eöl (AC Beleriand)
Angrod (AC Beleriand)
Fingon (Inter Beleriand)
Nerdanel (Real Valinor)
Nessa (Real Valinor)
Sauron (Barad-dûr)
Rómendacil (Gondor)
Saruman (Isengard)
Isildur (Eriador)
Orophin (Misty Mts)
Morgoth (Angband)
PhantomWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)

0+3
Túrin (Hithlum)

GOALKEEPING

1. 6/6 (100.0%) – Hyarmendacil (The Sea)
2. 5/5 (100.0%) – Elrond (Eriador)
3. 5/5 (100.0%) – Galadriel (Dwarves United)
4. 8/9 (88.89%) – Grishnákh (Barad-dûr)
5. 7/8 (87.50%) – Beorn (Erebor)

YELLOW CARDS

2
Ar-Gimilzôr (Armenelos)
Ulrad (AC Beleriand)
Galdor (Gondolin)
Balrog #5 (Hithlum)
Nahar (Real Valinor)

Herumor (Barad-dûr)
Mauhur (Isengard)
Lurtz (Isengard)
Brand (Erebor)
NogWight (Eriador)

Great Goblin (Misty Mts)
William (Misty Mts)
Rúmil (Misty Mts)
Caradhras (Misty Mts)
Tarondor (Minas Tirith)

Arminas (Nargothrond)
Caranthir (Tirion)
Ulwarth (Angband)
Gelmir (Anfauglith)
Haldir (Anfauglith)

Balrog #2 (Anfauglith)
BoroWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
Gorbag (Mordor)
Brytta (Rohan)

[the phantom]

Handicapping the Groups
A MESPN Football Round Table Report

GROUP A

Armenelos (95)
GK Tar Atanamir (10)
DF Tar Calmacil (7)
DF Tar Palantir (7)
DF Tar Telperien (7)
MF Ar Gimilzor (7)
MF Tar Telemmaite (7)
MF Tar Miriel (7)
MF Tar Ancalimon (7)
MF *Elros (12)
FW Ar Adunakhor (12)
FW Ar Pharazon (12)

MESPN Take: Per usual, the squad from Numenor has no weakness to speak of. While their top talent is not as flashy as others, they’re tall, strong, fast, efficient, and intelligent. The only way the other teams in their group score well on them is if Bombadil, Earendil, or Arien have an epic game, which of course they are capable of. That means Armenelos must be prepared to put up 3 in one of their games if they want to win them all. Their front three are all capable of putting the ball in the net, but in particular the defense of Valimar won’t make it easy.

The Barrow-Downs (50)
GK Alien (2)
DF Lumpkin (2)
DF GwathWight (3)
DF River Woman (3)
DF Barrow-Wight (11)
MF WilWight (3)
MF Lalwende MP (3)
MF Goldberry (3)
MF Hookbill (6)
FW Saucepan Man (6)
FW *Bombadil (8)

MESPN Take: This team is nicely improved from previous years. River Woman and Goldberry have nice touch, and Bombadil is always a threat to beat any defense. BWight will lead the defense, but with some of the attackers featured in this group The Downs will likely need to score 2 to win or more likely draw. SPM and Hookbill have both shown promise, so they need to show up and work with Bombadil (who needs to show up consistently as well).

The Havens (79)
GK Amandil (6)
DF Annael (5)
DF Imrazor (5)
DF Ar Zimrathan (8)
DF Olwe (10)
MF Eriol (5)
MF Mithrellas (3)
MF Earwen (3)
MF Falastur (9)
MF Cirdan (10)
FW *Earendil (15)

MESPN Take: They advanced out of a tough group last year, so they certainly have a shot this year. Their defense is intelligent and solid, but they can’t be asked to entirely contain Arien or Bombadil. Earendil, Cirdan and friends must match goals at their end, and they’re athletic enough to do so in head-to-head matchups with the defenders in this group.

Valimar (102)
GK *Manwe (14)
DF Amarie (4)
DF Este (8)
DF Vana (8)
DF *Namo (14)
MF Elenwe (3)
MF Ilmare (8)
MF Vaire (8)
MF Irmo (9)
MF Ingwe (11)
FW *Arien (15)

MESPN Take: Most football publications will likely list Valimar as the slim favorites in Group A, thanks to a proven scorer arriving to balance out their defensive commitment. If Manwe can use Arien, Ingwe and Irmo intelligently without sacrificing their effective defense then they’ll be tough to beat, though Earendil and Bombadil may require too much attention to turn the offense loose.

The MESPN Forecast: Valimar perhaps has the greatest upside if they can get firing on all cylinders, but singular talents will test their back line, while their middle (Elenwe, Ilmare, Vaire) might get outdone by Armenelos. Armenelos is probably the most dependable squad- they never go down easily, so they might be the safest bet. The Havens gets edged out in overall pedigree most likely, but if they outplay the opposition by a bit, or teams don’t handle their attack with enough care, that could easily flip the scales. The Barrow-Downs remains the longest shot, but with a flashing performance by Bombadil it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that they’ll advance this year.

Armenelos- 70%
Valimar- 60%
Havens- 50%
Barrow-Downs- 20%

GROUP B

AC Beleriand (108)
GK Marach (9)
DF Imlach (4)
DF Rochallor (4)
DF Balrog #4 (12)
DF *Fingolfin (15)
MF Denethor (3)
MF Ulrad (5)
MF Angrod (10)
MF Aegnor (10)
FW Eol (15)
FW **Feanor (21)

MESPN Take: Last year’s semifinalist will likely be the popular pick to advance first. Feanor-led offenses always do well, and working with Eol, Angrod and Aegnor this year should be no different. Perhaps only the athletes and defensive commitment of Dwarves United can slow their offense in this group. AC is very solid at the rear too, but they’ll have to bring their best against Inter and Gondolin, which both feature elite attacks.

Inter Beleriand (81)
GK Turgon (11)
DF Haldad (2)
DF Gorlim (2)
DF Baragund (3)
DF Luthien (13)
MF Forweg (2)
MF Hunthor (2)
MF Haleth (7)
MF *Beren (13)
FW Fingon (13)
FW *Maedhros (13)

MESPN Take: Inter will perpetually be looking to feed it to their dangerous attack, but the athletes on AC and Dwarves United will provide a stiff challenge to the scorers. At the back they have Turgon in goal and Luthien defending, so they can hamstring at least one opposing scorer and save a good shot every game, but AC and Gondolin have enough weapons to demand more of a defense.

Dwarves United (86)
GK Galadriel (14)
DF Azaghal (5)
DF Durin (6)
DF Aule (16)
DF *Celebrimbor (18)
MF Fili (2)
MF Kili (2)
MF Gamil Zirak (4)
MF Telchar (4)
MF Gimli (5)
FW Legolas (10)

MESPN Take: Now with Galadriel behind Aule and Celebrimbor their defense is able to handle nearly anyone so long as they’re committed to it. The crafty Telchar and Zirak will need to create offense, and Legolas will need to be a sharp-shooter when he gets his opportunities. Celebrimbor and Aule are dangerous scorers on set plays and PKs etc. , but if they have to take too big a hand in the offense, the defense will suffer.

Gondolin (84)
GK Rog (8)
DF Penlod (7)
DF Aranwe (3)
DF Galdor (5)
DF Egalmoth (7)
MF Salgant (4)
MF Elemmakil (4)
MF Duilin (8)
MF Idril (10)
FW Tuor (10)
FW *Maeglin (18)

MESPN Take: The “keen-boot” Maeglin has proven himself as a top-scorer, and he has a quality supporting cast this year which means only a complete defensive commitment or multiple elite defenders can keep them off the scoreboard. At the back they’re not elite, but at least they don’t have weak links in front of Rog. Inter and AC can throw multiple high-scorers at them, so they’ll probably have to outscore them.

The MESPN Forecast: AC will be the popular pick to finish first, and if talent alone wins out then they will. But with Maedhros/Fingon/Beren and Maeglin/Tuor/Idril in the group, there’s the potential to get nipped in a high-scoring contest if the breaks don’t go their way. And as Dwarves United proved last year, they can’t be written off, and if they win themselves an early lead they can muddy the game up with the best of them. Between Gondolin and Inter it may just be a toss up, as these two look remarkably similar.

ACBeleriand- 85%
InterBeleriand- 45%
Gondolin- 45%
Dwarves United- 25%

GROUP C

Doriath (70)
GK Dior (7)
DF Galathil (2)
DF Nimloth (2)
DF Elwing (6)
DF *Melian (14)
MF Galadhon (2)
MF Nellas (3)
MF Saeros (3)
MF Daeron (7)
MF *Elwe (14)
FW Mablung (10)

MESPN Take: As always Melian will lead the defense, and her girdle ups everyone’s performance. But with the sheer attacking power of Hithlum and the skill of the defending champs Real, Melian will need some help. Mablung proved himself at the forward last year, and Elwe’s height and power will give defenses a worry, but their ultimate success will depend on the rest of the midfield getting them chances. All three opponents have good athletes at the back.

Hithlum (101)
GK Huor (8)
DF Galdor (5)
DF Arroch (2)
DF Gundor (5)
DF Balrog #5 (13)
MF Aradan (3)
MF Morwen (6)
MF Hador (12)
MF *Beleg (13)
FW Hurin (14)
FW **Turin (20)

MESPN Take: A Balrog and Arroch in front of Huor gives the defense more bite this year, but the focal point remains the offense, with four different players that know how to put the ball in the net. Shire-Bree can try to blunt it somewhat with a Nazgul/Gildor/Fellbeast/Shadowfax, and Real has Nienna/Ingwion/Tilion/Nahar (and even Tulkas behind them), so Hithlum can’t just trample this group with scoring.

Shire-Bree United (68)
GK Halbarad (5)
DF Fellbeast (2)
DF Nazgul #4 (8)
DF Gildor (7)
DF *Shadowfax (5)
MF Butterbur (2)
MF Bandobras (4)
MF Ferny (2)
MF Nazgul #6 (8)
MF *Gandalf (14)
FW Khamul (11)

MESPN Take: They have a solid defense with diverse skill-sets, so they’ll be well equipped to stop scoring when they commit to it. It’ll be tougher to get on the board with BWight, Aragorn and Bombadil gone, but Gandalf adds some threat back. More than likely he’ll see a lot of extra attention from Hithlum’s Balrog, Doriath’s Melian, and Ingwion of Real, so the surrounding Nazgul will have to come through and make defenses respect the whole offense.

Real Valinor (101)
GK *Tulkas (12)
DF Nienna (10)
DF Nahar (5)
DF Ingwion (5)
DF *Tilion (12)
MF Quennar (3)
MF Enerdhil (4)
MF Nessa (10)
FW Nerdanel (12)
FW *Miriel (14)
FW Orome (14)

MESPN Take: The defending champs are hoping Orome is a good swap out with Arien, and he should provide a good target for Miriel and Nerdanel. Their fast-moving precision passing game may work best against the defenses in this group. They’re solid at the rear in all positions, but Hithlum particularly has a plethora at talent to run at them, so they can’t just focus on one or two threats as with Shire-Bree and Doriath.

The MESPN Forecast: It’s difficult not to pick the defending champs- they’re a proven commodity, and they don’t appear to have gotten worse in the offseason (or if they have- not much). They just look solid up and down, accented by excellent individual talents. With the goal-scoring threat that they are Hithlum will likely be the popular pick to finish second, but Shire-Bree advanced last year, and if their defense can pitch a good game and they convert on set plays and the like, they could definitely pull an upset. Doriath advanced last year as well, and though Beleg has gone over to Hithlum, they have Elwe to replace his scoring. So similar to Shire-Bree, they are capable of knocking off a favorite.

Real Valinor- 75%
Hithlum- 65%
Shire-Bree United- 30%
Doriath- 30%

GROUP D

Barad-Dur (74)
GK Grishnakh (5)
DF Fellbeast #1 (3)
DF Fellbeast #2 (3)
DF Pallando (11)
DF Alatar (11)
MF Sangahyando (3)
MF Herumor (3)
MF Angamaite (3)
MF Beruthiel (5)
FW Castamir (7)
FW *Sauron (20)

MESPN Take: Sauron has brought up the defense this year. Against the in-group competition the Blue Wizards should perform well and Fellbeasts can be handy for getting back quickly, but they might be more useful against dragons than an offense like FC. At the front Sauron is enough to make any offense a threat, but FC has Eonwe and Maglor at the back to provide respectable matchups for him, so the rest of the offense must support well and help him gain a mismatch.

Gondor (70)
GK Imrahil (5)
DF Galadil (4)
DF Earnil I (6)
DF Eldarion (5)
MF Calimehtar (5)
MF Ciryandil (5)
MF Turambar (6)
MF Meneldil (6)
MF Romendacil (7)
MF *Anarion (12)
FW Eldacar (9)

MESPN Take: Some refer to Gondor as “Armenelos Lite”, and there is perhaps justification. Similar to their forefathers, their strength lies in their across the board consistency, size, and strength, and sound fundamentals. Anarion was a standout scorer last year, and Eldacar as an athlete is a cut above many of his teammates, so with even support behind them they will threaten Barad-Dur and Isengard. With FC’s defenders however they’ll have to take some risks. At the back their team strategy and soundness may be able to shut down BDur and Isen, as they both feature a singular focus (Sauron and Saruman), but again FC will be problematic.

Isengard (66)
GK Ugluk (5)
DF Mauhur (3)
DF Beechbone (3)
DF Treebeard (10)
MF Lurtz (3)
MF Wulf (2)
MF Lugdush (3)
MF Nazgul #5 (8)
MF Wormtongue (4)
MF *Saruman (15)
FW Quickbeam (10)

MESPN Take: Saruman is a danger both to score and to be crafty and create for others, and he’s got a big target in Quickbeam. The newly added Nazgul will add a solid supporter for the offense, and Wormtongue too is a sneaky distributor. Against Gondor and BDur they won’t be straight up overmatched, but they cannot make mistakes. FC will take a very special effort. At the back their ents will be nice for defending corners and the like, but in the open field they’ll be susceptible to FC, and Sauron. Their midfield will have to get back quick, or just stay back in some situations.

FC Valinor (107)
GK *Huan (15)
DF Thorondor (13)
DF Indis (7)
DF Maglor (10)
DF *Eonwe (12)
MF Elemmire (4)
MF Findis (4)
MF Argon (7)
MF *Yavanna (10)
FW Celegorm (11)
FW *Curufin (14)

MESPN Take: Huan is the best keeper in the group, and the four in front of him is also the most talented, so barring a lapse they will be tough to score on. In some groups shutouts might be easier to come by, but a shutout of Sauron or Saruman can’t be guaranteed. On offense their front four is the same as last year- and we know they can score- but with Irmo and Indis gone from the midfield solid squads like Gondor might have a better chance at denying Curufin and pals possession. On breakaways they’ll be able to straight up outrun most of Isen and Gondor but not BDur.

The MESPN Forecast: Well yes, if FC plays up to potential they’re the favorite here. For the other spot Gondor and BDur have an edge over Isengard, but if Saruman gets hot or if the opposition gets carded they are capable of getting in. Between Gondor and BDur it may be a tossup, and perhaps their margins of victory/loss against the others will be the tiebreaker, in which case BDur has the edge because of Sauron’s scoring touch- plus can he really be eliminated early consecutively?

FC Valinor- 90%
Barad-Dur- 45%
Gondor- 40%
Isengard- 25%

(groups E through H to follow)

[the phantom]

(special report continued...)

GROUP E

Erebor (94)
GK *Beorn (12)
DF Thorin (5)
DF Meneldor (8)
DF Landroval (8)
DF Girion (8)
MF Dain (5)
MF Brand (3)
MF Bolg (9)
FW Bard (8)
FW Nazgul #7 (10)
FW *Smaug (18)

MESPN Take: A winged dragon provides a matchup problem for many teams, but Misty Mts has a natural stopper in Gwaihir. Eriador and Wilderland on the other hand have a couple good tools on defense, but they’ll have to depend more on stopping Smaug’s feeders, which Wilderland might struggle to do without extra defensive commitment. With twin eagles on their defense, defensive teams aren’t going to be able to beat Erebor on a dash forward, but Eriador will be able to build slowly with precise passing, and the Elves and Narvi in the middle for Misty will do that as well. Having Beorn at the back, who has at times looked very good, may make the difference.

Eriador (103)
GK *Elrond (20)
DF Asfaloth (4)
DF Arwen (10)
DF Aragorn (10)
DF *Gil-galad (13)
MF Araphant (5)
MF Arador (4)
MF NogWight (6)
MF Arveleg (8)
MF *Glorfindel (13)
FW Isildur (10)

MESPN Take: With the defenders they have in front of Elrond they threaten to shut out anyone, but they’re in a group where each team has as primary striker a dragon or a balrog, so it’ll be a test without a bona fide beast-stopper (though Asfaloth will be quite helpful in some instances). Eriador will likely control possession more than any of their opponents, and is the least error-prone, and they have the most consistent goal-keeper in the tournament, so the main focus will be keeping the ball off the scales of the dragons (and balrog).

Misty Mts (76)
GK Chief Wolf (3)
DF Caradhras (7)
DF William (4)
DF Watcher (5)
DF *Gwaihir (11)
MF Great Goblin (5)
MF Orophin (6)
MF Rumil (6)
MF Narvi (6)
MF Azog (8)
FW *Durin’s Bane (15)

MESPN Take: Durin’s Bane is a big, fast threat up front, and with the power of Azog also a scoring threat and the Elves and craftsdwarf supporting them it will be difficult to keep them from scoring. At the rear they’ve got some bruisers, one of which (Gwaihir) is lightning fast getting back and forth, but that won’t serve them quite as well against an attack like Eriador.

Wilderland (75)
GK Great Warg (5)
DF Finglas (3)
DF Skinbark (3)
DF Oropher (5)
DF Radagast (11)
MF Fimbrethil (3)
MF Iminye (4)
MF Imin (5)
MF Nazgul #3 (8)
FW Thranduil (14)
FW *Scatha (14)

MESPN Take: A dragon is always useful, but ground-bound as he is Scatha will be more manageable than Smaug for Misty Mts (who have some big bodies to put on Scatha). But he’ll still be a problem at times for Eriador, and maybe for Erebor, as on the ground their eagles can get out-muscled. Against Misty they’ll be dependent upon Thranduil and their Nazgul to outmaneuver the defense. Smaug and Durin’s Bane will give them some trouble, but the presence of two Ents at the back will keep them from being bowled over, while Oropher and Radagast will provide good possession support and help with more standard attackers.

The MESPN Forecast: After their runner-up performance it’s tough to leave Eriador out, and they are solid across the field and accentuated with talents like Glorfindel and Elrond. The other three are somewhat similar, in that they all have a large dangerous attacker to be targeted on crosses and convert free kicks, and they all have somewhat diverse defenses, which perhaps makes them better suited to play one another. It’s tempting to just go with Erebor for the second slot since they made the semifinals last year, but the departure of Thranduil to Wilderland makes their support of Smaug less dominant. Wilderland has the benefit of Radagast spear-heading defensive efforts, while Misty now perhaps has the most solid midfield. But Smaug probably remains the biggest goal-scoring threat, while Glorfindel is the best all-around offensive tool. And then there’s the possibility of Scatha, Smaug, or Durin’s Bane having a dominant game and edging out Eriador. It’s a tough group to call.

Eriador: 65%
Erebor: 50%
Misty Mts: 45%
Wilderland: 40%

GROUP F

Minas Tirith (76)
GK Denethor II (7)
DF Earnur (7)
DF Ecthelion II (7)
DF Firefoot (3)
DF Cirion (7)
MF Earnil II (7)
MF Tarandor (7)
MF Telumehtar (7)
MF Mardil (7)
MF *Eomer (10)
FW Boromir I (7)

MESPN Take: The White City has a solid midfield and defense that excels in working in harmony together and flowing seamlessly from attack to defense, but it won’t be an advantage against The Sea, as they are similar only with a couple of greater talents to punctuate their effectiveness. It will be more of a plus against Tirion, but then Tirion has the speed and precision up front to force Minas Tirith into greater defensive commitment. Firefoot will probably be useful against Glaurung, and MT is good enough on offense to force Nargothrond to give help at the back, whereas if their attackers were turned loose MT might have problems.

Nargothrond (89)
GK Orodreth (10)
DF Guillen (4)
DF Baran (3)
DF Arminas (4)
DF Barahir (7)
MF Beor (7)
MF Nienor (6)
MF Finduilas (9)
FW Gwindor (10)
FW Finrod (14)
FW *Glaurung (15)

MESPN Take: With a solid array of forwards and midfielders Nargothrond has an attack to make anyone feel nervous. Glaurung is a nice weapon to have up front, but The Sea should be well prepared, as Osse and Ulmo both have the size and strength to not be entirely overpowered, and goodness knows they don’t fear fire. And Firefoot of MT will blunt his effectiveness as well, not to mention MT’s team defense denying him touches. Their defense doesn’t exactly scare anyone, so they’ll have to rely on owning the ball, not to mention the other team’s fear of letting Nargothrond loose on a counter. The trio of Finwe-Aredhel-Mahtan will be particularly difficult to contain without help.

The Sea (100)
GK Hyarmendacil (8)
DF Osse (9)
DF Salmar (9)
DF Uinen (9)
DF *Ulmo (17)
MF Tar Cirytan (7)
MF Voronwe (7)
MF Tar Meneldur (7)
MF Veantur (7)
MF Tar Aldarion (8)
FW Tar Minastir (12)

MESPN Take: Similar to team Armenelos (where five of their players hail from), much of the strength of The Sea rests in their lack of weak links, and their habit of offering no tactical or personal mistakes to capitalize on. The quickness and grace of the Nargothrond and Tirion attackers will likely force The Sea to be more conservative. They should be able to hold possession decently against MT and Nargothrond, but the forwards of Tirion pressure the ball a lot, and Feanor’s three sons on defense aren’t exactly passive either, so they’ll need to try a long pass forward more often.

Tirion (83)
GK Finarfin (8)
DF Irime (3)
DF Amrod (9)
DF Amras (9)
DF *Caranthir (11)
MF Anaire (3)
MF Eldalote (2)
MF Rumil (4)
MF Mahtan (9)
FW Aredhel (12)
FW Finwe (13)

MESPN Take: The high talent level and defensive-mindedness of The Sea might frustrate the Tirion offense, but it’s unlikely to be overly shackled against anyone else. Minas Tirith will try to limit them with their own possession and by owning the middle of the field, as will Nargothrond. Tirion’s defenders and Finarfin in goal should be a match for the attack of Minas Tirith, and perhaps The Sea if they’re overly defensive, but Nargothrond has enough weapons that Tirion might have to stay more honest at the back and leave the ball-pressure more to the attackers, though that might slow down the offense.

The MESPN Forecast: If we call it how it is, Minas Tirith appears to be a weaker version of The Sea. Nargothrond perhaps has the most dangerous overall attack, while maybe Tirion’s front three is the most threatening against the specific defenses in this group. Defensively The Sea is probably the most solid overall and can limit Glaurung the most, while Tirion is perhaps best equipped to stop MT and Sea, with the drawback that their midfield can be overcome. Once again, this isn’t an easy group to handicap.

The Sea- 65%
Tirion- 55%
Nargothrond- 50%
Minas Tirith- 30%

GROUP G

Angband (91)
GK *Carcharoth (9)
DF Ulwarth (4)
DF Umuiyan (5)
DF Balrog #1 (12)
DF *Morgoth (20)
MF Uldor (4)
MF Ulfast (4)
MF Ulfang (5)
MF Oikeroi (5)
FW Telvildo (9)
FW *Ancalagon (14)

MESPN Take: Angband is nicely flexible at both ends, with a couple cat-quick attackers supporting the size and power of Ancalagon, who can also get downfield in a hurry. At the back they have another feline, plus the size and power of Morgoth and a Balrog. The only team in the group that on paper looks to pose defensive problems is TIG, as the two Werewolves and Thuringwethil are faster than Ulwarth and Morgoth, perhaps a smidgeon more agile than the Balrog, and stronger than Umuiyan and Ulwarth. As far as teams stopping their attack, Angfauglith has the means to stop Ancalagon with twin Balrogs, and TIG’s Werewolves will give the feline attackers grief, though they can’t do the same to Ancalagon.

Angfauglith (87)
GK *Ungoliant (16)
DF Borlach (3)
DF Gelmir (3)
DF Balrog #2 (12)
DF *Balrog #3 (12)
MF Gorgol (3)
MF Haldir (4)
MF Rian (3)
MF Bor (3)
FW Ecthelion (10)
FW *Gothmog (18)

MESPN Take: Their double Balrogs plus Ungoliant at the back leave them set to handle for the most part any threat thrown at them, while Gothmog-Ecthelion will cause problems at the other end. Imladris doesn’t look likely to stop them, while Angband can throw a Balrog at Gothmog but he won’t best his lord. TIG looks perhaps best equipped on account of Drauglin and the other Werewolves, but individually they can’t match the size and strength, and Gothmog is just as fast. The problem for Angfauglith will be delivering the ball to the forwards, as their midfield is not dominant.

Imladris (69)
GK Valandil (6)
DF Celebrian (5)
DF Galdor (4)
DF Erestor (9)
DF *Varda (14)
MF Gilraen (2)
MF Figwit (2)
MF Lindir (2)
MF Arahael (5)
FW Elladan (10)
FW Elrohir (10)

MESPN Take: The defenses they’ll face in this group will make for tough sledding, but the Elves up front may be able to make some headway against Angband, which only has one defender that can match their quick directional changes and ball movement. Similarly Angfauglith may have a bit of trouble defending them if they keep things moving quickly and accurately, front to back side to side. But holding possession will be key, and the forwards for the opposition are known to be aggressive when on defense. They can’t just pass back and expect the opposition to wait on them. If they choose to play it that way, Varda should be able to take away an attacker from the opposition (though not Ancalagon or Gothmog).

Tol In Gaurhoth (84)
GK *ShastaWolf (10)
DF Drauglin (8)
DF GaladriWight (3)
DF BoroWolf (8)
DF *NilpWolf (10)
MF LegateWight (3)
MF SallyWight (4)
MF NerWight (5)
MF *PhantomWolf (10)
FW Thuringwethil (13)
FW *InzilWolf (10)

MESPN Take: TIG is clearly the fastest squad overall, as only Gothmog and Ancalagon in full flight can beat their Werewolves or Thuringwethil across the field. To match their strength and athleticism Angband has Morgoth, balrog, dragon, and Catbeasts, and Angfauglith has three balrogs, so the Wights might need to make the difference by beating the other squad’s role-players. Against Imladris their priority will be staying in control and tactically sound, as the Elves will aim to frustrate them and wait for mistakes.

The MESPN Forecast: The diverse skill-sets and presence of Morgoth makes Angband the favorite here, and TIG looks to be ahead of Angfauglith in the pecking order for second place, leaving Imladris as the squad gunning for the upset. In other groups a mention of keepers would be more appropriate, as Carcharoth, ShastaWolf, and Ungoliant are all excellent, but here they rather cancel each other out. In the end Ancalagon is the toughest matchup and Morgoth organizes the best defense, so they get the nod over TIG, who has the greatest depth of superior athletes.

Angband- 70%
Tol-In-Gaurhoth- 60%
Angfauglith- 45%
Imladris- 25%

GROUP H

Anduin (83)
GK Amroth (4)
DF Minalcar (5)
DF Felarof (5)
DF Celeborn (10)
DF *Fram (10)
MF Lenwe (2)
MF Leod (5)
MF Haldir (8)
MF Boromir II (10)
FW Eorl (14)
FW Grimbeorn (10)

MESPN Take: A solid and diverse team here, Anduin looks well equipped to please the home fans. Minalcar, Celeborn and Fram can handle most of the athletes they see, and they have the added speed and weight of Felarof to bother Shelob. Grimbeorn is tough up front, but the three in this group have something to throw at him. His three running-mates- Eorl, Boromir and Haldir though will give him room to operate, as no one has four individual athletes that can match what the quad can do- but then no one expects any of these teams to leave their defense out to dry.

Arnor (68)
GK Arvedui (8)
DF Earendur (3)
DF Valandur (3)
DF Malbeth (8)
DF *Elendil (10)
MF Malvegil (3)
MF Argeleb (4)
MF Arassuil (4)
MF Arantar (5)
FW Araphor (7)
FW *Witch King (13)

MESPN Take: Arnor has the best shot at containing the Anduin attack, as they don’t have glaring weak links and have Elendil and Malbeth in front of Arvedui. In addition, Arnor is the most solid through the middle and should own the ball better than anyone. The Witch King won’t be an easy matchup for anyone- he’s too wily and skilled for horses to handle, and men are generally outmatched in size and strength (particularly if they’re suffering from his fear-inducing aura). Celeborn will probably have the best shot at taking him man-to-man (or wraith-to-elf, as it is), but Rohan and Mordor will doubtless give WK extra attention, meaning it will be up to Araphor and others to make them pay.

Mordor (51)
GK Silent Watcher (1)
DF Fellbeast #3 (3)
DF Mumakil (1)
DF Fellbeast #4 (3)
DF Gothmog II (5)
MF Gorbag (3)
MF Shagrat (3)
MF Nazgul #1 (7)
MF Nazgul #2 (7)
MF *Mouth (8)
FW Shelob (10)

MESPN Take: With Fellbeasts and the Mumakil at the rear Mordor is fairly well equipped to face dragons or other large bruisers, but unfortunately they weren’t grouped with many of those (just Grimbeorn really). Given that they will need the offense to score a few. The size of Shelob should bother Arnor, but the steeds of Rohan and Anduin will force The Mouth and his Nazgul buddies to step up. At times the presence of the Nazgul can dishearten mortals, so they’ll need to take advantage of anyone that succumbs.

Rohan (66)
GK Theoden (7)
DF Windfola (3)
DF Snowmane (3)
DF Hama (3)
DF Erkenbrand (3)
MF Aldor (6)
MF King Dead (10)
MF Eowyn (9)
MF Brytta (5)
MF *Faramir (9)
FW Helm (8)

MESPN Take: Rohan will be defense-first, and while double-horses can ensure they don’t get beat on a long-ball, none of the opposition prefers to do that anyway. Arnor might give them some trouble, with their precision positioning and cautious prodding ball-movement. As far as goal-scoring, it will be up to Faramir and friends to beat the opposition with a couple nice passes/moves on the counter, which they hope the more aggressive defenders will be susceptible to in particular.

The MESPN Forecast: Anduin has the most dangerous front four and back four, so it’s difficult not to see them as the favorites. Arnor has the depth up and down and perhaps the greatest chance of upsetting them, hence they have the second-best shot at qualifying. With the Nazgul and Shelob up front Mordor has the best puncher’s chance of scoring past the favorites, while Rohan has the best shot of holding a lead if they grab it early. This could be a very competitive group.

Anduin- 65%
Arnor- 55%
Mordor- 45%
Rohan- 35%

----------------------
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Round Table Contributors-
Philip McPhantom (MESPN lead football coordinator), Ruharg the Red (Monster Magazine lead sports editor), Ar-Tar-Aradil (Westernesse Weekly sports writer, NAAF president), Adanel (Football wise-woman for Dor-Lomin Athletic Digest), Finwanoro (Football columnist for The Tirion Times and MESPN)

[Boromir88]

By Boro88

After Tol in Gaurhoth's strong showing in the friendlies I was able to sit down with several of the team's werewolves to discuss the approaching tournament. I figured coming off of two victories, now would be about the only chance to speak with the players and make it out alive.

Tol-in-Gaurhoth is trying to put a disappointing 2012 behind them, since it was the only year the team did not make it out of the group round. Although some factors were not in TIG's control, since after taking silver in 2011, the team was hit with some heavy sanctions, which put restrictions on their roster and limitted the kind of game they like playing. But TIG bit the bullet, played by the rules, and adjusted their make-up that even Iluvatar was content and had the sanctions lifted.

Now the wolves, wights, and other beasties are starting to find their form, and at a good time too!

TTN: After being eliminated in the group round last year, how do you think you'll fare this year in a tough Group G?
Many of them are carrying the positive start into their round 1 games...

GaladWight: "We'll kick some butt... I mean ball."

NilpWolf: "We're rolling in the friendlies, winning both games. If we keep this focus, and if Anfauglith continue to struggle, we'd advance from our group this year."

NerWight: "I’m quite hopeful, actually – we’ve got a good line-up this year too, you know."

phantomWolf called last year a "fluke" pointing out they actually played better than their group opponents but by either some rotten luck or having wolves sent off only managed 3 draws: "If you think about it- no one beat us last year, did they? So what we've done is added Thuringwethil and Drauglin to an undefeated team. So long as we don't shoot ourselves in the foot I'm not particularly worried about our prospects."

BoroWolf sounded a bit more cautious: "To be honest, Doriath and The Havens are teams we should beat. Don't get me wrong, it's a nice sign we're winning those games when last year we would have found some way to blow it and only get a point. But, it's fair to say we haven't been tested yet, and the teams in our group bring different challenges over the teams we beat in the friendlies."

TTN: Toughest challenge: Angband, Anfauglith, or Imladris?

We can't set up the teams in Group G much better than phantomWolf:

"Angband.

Despite their tactical and technical proficiency, Imladris just doesn't have the power and athleticism to defend Thuringwethil and two Werewolves on one end and score against Drauglin and a pair of Werewolves at the other.

Angfauglith has three Balrogs, so that negates some of our advantage, but we're better than them all through the middle. Gothmog and Ecthelion can't get themselves the ball and dribble up the entire pitch, nor can two Balrog defenders stop our entire attack when we overmatch everyone else.

Angband though- Ancalagon is always a big challenge, then they have Morgoth and a Balrog at the back, but they supplement that with the quick Catbeasts- two up front and one in back. So athletically they have more to make us stay honest, and to take advantage of positional slip-ups and the like. We'll need to play tough and sharp against them."

And it was pretty much unanimous for Angband, as NilpWolf added Angband should be angry from last year's (like TIG) loss to Minas Tirith. However, it appears the key will be against Anfauglith, and the aura of uncertainty surrounding the team (in large part from an uninspiring friendly performance, but they've got the defense and talent if they can put it all together before the tournament) is a different kind of challenge:

NerWight: "The other two, though, are a bit... thought provoking. I think Angfauglith might look even more sc– I mean thought-provoking than Angband. But then they haven’t done so well in the friendlies, so it’s hard to say."

GaladWight talked to herself in circles (also literally...she was responding while spinning around), but we'll publish her response as well:

""imladris omg elfs omg figwit omg!" is what fangurl43 told me yesterday about the topic (and I did not hear a single capital letter in her sentence). I don't know if she's a fan of our awesome team or a fan of Figwit. I have a feeling that it's the second, because these fans have a hobbit - I mean habit - of adding "OMG" to everything they say. Our team really is awesome, though. So awesome that it should be called Team Awesome. Anyways, as I was saying... Wait, what was the question?"


TTN: Thoughts on Nogrod defecting to play for the 2012 silver-medalist Eriador?

At this NerWight wasn't interested in the past "Nog who?" and GaladWight yelled "Ditcher!"

The striker replacing NogWolf this year believes he will regret the choice...

InzilWolf: "I think it'll bite him. They've got Elrond and Glorfindel too, and that's a couple of prima donnas who don't like sharing the spotlight."

Those who profess to know their former teammate better (but could not foresee his departure) have a slightly different tone.

BoroWolf: "I think we'll miss his height, because the FinnWight was a header-specialist, and he often kept his head for that matter. But then again, with the defenses we're up against this year, their backlines are not dimunitive so I think going with more quickness and agility with InzilWolf and Thuringwethil is good for us. Plus, when clearing out his wolf den I found he had a lifetime subscription to AKM. Inconceivable."

Phantomwolf: "I'm a bit surprised really. Not that he left- I mean, I figured he would. Wights and Werewolves like us are pretty well always restricted to playing on one squad or two, so being granted an opportunity to test the free agent waters is too good to pass up.

But his choice of Eriador surprised me. I figured he'd want to play as a Werewolf for Sauron, or feed the ball to Feanor on AC Beleriand- but I guess not everyone has the same dreams I do. I suppose it makes sense- NogWight has always been a bit more... thoughtful and rational, and less distracted by the superfluous glamor and fame some players seek. So he's probably at home with the talented but humble squad from Eriador. There's enough stars and bright lights there to satisfy most anyone, but Elrond doesn't try to play it up and just wants results."

TTN: And to end this interview on a lighter note...Who would you most want as a teammate? (not including current teammates)

Nilpwolf: "Oh, Finrod, no question. He was once a 'visitor' to our island, and he's an excellent player. He'd fit the 'whole is greater than the sum of its parts' thing that we're proud of."

Phantomwolf: "Ha, well, I sort of gave away my answer in the last question. Sauron, obviously. As the Lord of Werewolves, he really gets me. Specifically, he gets me goals and assists, heh. The guy is just so good at using what he has. He's so flexible with his strategies and even his own playstyle. If you stop him he just comes back in another form. I've played with him before and I know it's a winning recipe, so that's my choice. But as far as a pipe-dream...

...There's Feanor. I'm not sure if I think enough like a First Age Elf for me to thrive in an offense with him- he kind of expects everyone around him to be "where they ought to be" at all times depending upon what he sees from the defense, and then he delivers it perfectly to the spot you should be moving to or takes it himself as he deems appropriate. It isn't necessarily easy to fit into his fast-pace perfection.... But boy would I like to try. Because if Feanor and I could ever get on the same page, the result would be nothing short of the greatest glory and beauty I'd ever experienced. And I dated Kate Beckinsale."

NerWight: "That’s another hard call... maybe Arien."

GaladWight: "Turin. I mean, who wouldn't want such an awesome character for a teammate? I bet every single wight here would agree with me - ouch! Who just elbowed me?"

InzilWolf: "That's a tough one. Maybe GwathWolf. He has a tendency to hang back in the shadows and snatch a victory when you aren't looking."

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

AC Beleriand


(Expected formation)

Last year
Two things were strongly associated with the 2012 AC Beleriand squad: aggressive pressing and a commitment to possession. Fëanor’s squad kept the ball well not only because they fielded four central midfielders (most teams field only two or three, allowing AC Beleriand to pass around them) but also because they went for the ball immediately after losing it. Ulrad and Beren were icons of this high-energy style of play, but even Fëanor, Eöl, and Denethor often harried opposing defenders and defensive midfielders to recover possession.

Playing four central midfielders, however, came at a cost—AC Beleriand lacked width in attack, forcing full-backs Fingolfin and Ecthelion to cover a lot of ground going forward as well as defending. Most teams were unable to exploit this weakness, simply because they couldn’t get the ball long enough to do something with it, but Real Valinor in the semi-finals managed to bypass AC Beleriand’s pressing by sending long balls from the defence straight to Arien, Míriel, and Nerdanel. And even a downgraded Doriath squad managed to stifle their attack by preventing the full-backs from advancing and packing the middle of the pitch, forcing AC Beleriand to beat them on the flanks (which they never did). It’s no coincidence that those two teams who exploited AC Beleriand’s aggressive pressing and lack of width well were the only teams they didn't beat.

Changes
Beren must have been agitating for a move in the offseason, since Fëanor allowed his second-highest goalscorer to walk away too easily. Contract negotiations with holding midfielder Bregolas also fell apart, so two roster spots opened up for AC Beleriand; Fëanor signed Havens wide midfielders Aegnor and Angrod to be their replacements.

Midfield
With Ulrad and Denethor still in the squad, Fëanor retained four ball-playing midfielders who can help keep possession, but his two new signings naturally attack from the wings, giving his side natural width without having to push their full-backs (Fingolfin and Balrog #4, who replaced Ecthelion) forward. In their friendly games the two spent far more time with the back line than with the forwards, making their side more secure against counterattacks. This is particularly helpful when you consider that the ‘2’ in AC Beleriand’s 4-2-3-1, Ulrad and Denethor, were once fielded higher up the field, and are still learning the ropes of the holding midfielder trade. Denethor is more positionally disciplined of the two; Ulrad is a high-energy tackler who would chase opposing midfielders around and harry them in possession.

Attack
The tip of their 4-2-3-1 is, surprisingly, not Fëanor, but Eöl. This has caused opposing defences a ton of problems—the Dark Boot’s tendency is to move from wing to wing, even back to the midfield, to look for space. This often forced a centre-back out of position to mark; otherwise he would be left free to play the ball to AC Beleriand’s other attackers or take a shot himself. Fëanor, on the other hand, is too far away from the line of defenders to be marked by a centre-back, forcing a midfielder to track him. The Fiery Boot can outrun and overpower most midfielders, as Ar-Gimilzôr and Tar-Míriel found out. And Aegnor and Angrod have exploited the focus defences pay on the two forwards by making goalward runs from the wings; Fëanor and Eöl’s passes have often left them with only a defender and the goalkeeper to beat.

Defence
Imlach and Rochallor renew their effective central defensive partnership. Fingolfin remains the leader of their back line, and Balrog #4 is an adequate replacement for Ecthelion, having plied his trade with Anfauglith in the same position last year. The two full-backs would still be required to move forward every now and then, but not as much as they did last year. Marach is a decent goalkeeper who fits well with AC Beleriand’s system; he plays like a sweeper behind the defenders’ high line, clearing crosses and long balls that are played behind the back four.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Fëanor
FORMATION: 4-2-3-1
PLAYING STYLE: possession, pressing
STRENGTH: Attackers, pressing as a unit.
WEAKNESS: Holding midfield duo.
KEY PLAYER: Fëanor
QUESTION: Are Angrod and Aegnor the answer to AC Beleriand’s weaknesses last year?
__________

Inter Beleriand


(Expected formation)

Last year
For a second year in a row, a team led by Maedhros and Fingon failed to advance from their group by the slimmest of margins. Last year, Gondolin’s more convincing 4-0 defeat of Arnor meant that, despite conceding one less goal to Eriador, Inter Beleriand putting just two goals past Arvedui led them to be eliminated on goal difference. And the year before that, Himring were eliminated on goals scored—Tirion scored one more goal against Shire-Bree United than they did.

Maedhros and Fingon were already carrying a huge scoring load, and, while Haleth’s pace is useful on the attack, especially in the counterattacking style Inter prefer, he’s not a goal threat. They need to find goalscorer who will not compromise their defensive solidity.

Changes
Inter Beleriand got what is arguably the coup of the preseason, acquiring all-around midfielder Beren for $13 million. (The only acquisition that could possibly top this is Arien’s transfer to Valimar, although we believe that Caranthir’s move to Tirion is severely underrated.) This signing has improved both their offence and defence—Beren has not only scored five goals and created one for AC Beleriand, he has also often shut down the opposing squad’s most dangerous midfielder.

Inter have also acquired wing player Lúthien, fielding her as a left-back in place of the departing Balrog #5. She is another two-way signing—the former Doriath winger is defensively solid, yet can also contribute to the attack with her pace and well-delivered crosses.

Attack
As a counterattacking side, Inter focus on pace and quick forward delivery of the ball after winning possession. Their specialty is countering off opposition corner kicks—see their second goal against Gondolin last year and their goal vs Doriath in this year’s friendly match.

Beren is fielded as a left-sided midfielder, but he cuts inside whenever Inter is in possession, giving them a third central midfielder and allowing Lúthien to bomb forward. In the impressive AC Beleriand side, he was at his most effective when he was part of dangerous passing triangles with left-back Fingolfin and roaming forward Eöl; Lúthien and Fingon can replicate those roles for Inter. On the right, Haleth is a more traditional wide midfielder, running down the touchline to deliver crosses to the Noldor upfront.

Maedhros and Fingon form a traditional target man/quick man tandem, with Maedhros a target of long balls and a finisher of crosses, while Fingon's pace with the ball allows him to attack defences before they get back into shape. But Maedhros is more than a simple target man—he can hold the ball up while waiting for runners, but he can also turn around and make a run at goal himself.

Midfield and defence
Inter retained their central midfield pairing of Hunthor and Forweg. They’re defensively solid but generally unimaginative with the ball, preferring to play short passes to the wings. Their back four consists of Lúthien and Baragund on the left and the right, respectively (both are converted wide midfielders/wingers) with Haldad and Gorlim as centre-backs. The pair is decent against strong centre forwards, but vulnerable to forwards with pace and technique (which this group is full of). Behind them is Turgon, a fine shotstopper (ninth best save rate last year), a vocal back line leader, and an excellent deliverer of accurate long balls to the forwards.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Maedhros
FORMATION: 4-4-2
PLAYING STYLE: counterattacking
STRENGTH: Attacking trio, pace.
WEAKNESS: Defence.
KEY PLAYER: Beren
QUESTION: Can they score more against Dwarves United than Gondolin? (This is probably the key to their advance—unless they can beat Gondolin.)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Dwarves United


(Expected formation)

Last year
Dwarves United surprisingly advanced to the knockout stages ahead of an offensively stacked Wilderland squad and a solid Anduin team. They did it in the way of most footballing underdogs, by being very difficult to break down and nicking a few goals on the break.

Legolas seemed to be the perfect forward for their team—he passed their strict squad selection qualification (being a Dwarf-friend) and he is a speedy forward who excels in rushing at disorganised defences. However, all they got from their lone forward is a goal in four games, a poor rate of return considering he offers little else to the Dwarven offence: he’s poor at holding the ball up and his crossing ability is useless when the targets are often less than four feet tall.

Changes
Which is why it’s surprising that their major acquisition during the preseason transfer window, former Wilderland attacking midfielder Galadriel, is being fielded as a goalkeeper. This is especially bewildering considering their former keeper Bombur boasted a save rate that was tied for seventh best last year. That they would choose an incremental increase in defensive solidity over a two- or even threefold increase in offensive ability is perhaps deeply rooted in Dwarven philosophy. It is certainly a decision many football analysts struggle to understand.

Defence
Ahead of Galadriel is a solid back four: Azaghâl and Aulë are the centre-backs, with the Dwarf from Belegost doing the tackling and interceptions while the Vala stayed behind to make clearances and win headers. On the flanks are the attacking left-back Celebrimbor and the more defensive-minded right-back Durin.

Midfield
In front of them are Dwarves United’s other preseason signings, midfielders Fíli and Kíli. We disagree with AKM when they said that their ‘only merit is that they will play for the team with half the price.’ The sons of Dís are an improvement over Thror and Thorin; while the elder two are more combative tacklers (unfortunately leading to yellow cards), the latter are quicker and more capable of occupying space and cutting off passing options for opposing attackers. They are also excellent in short one-touch passing, as they demonstrated in their friendly vs Rohan—their quick switch of play from one flank to the other led to Celebrimbor setting up Gimli to create Telchar’s winner.

Attack
Just behind Legolas are the more attacking trio of midfielders. Gamil Zirak and Telchar start out wide and dribble past opponents, while Gimli drifts into space to create overloads on either wing. One of the trio will receive a short pass from Fíli and Kíli while the others dash forward to support Legolas. Last year, Celebrimbor often arrived late in the box when defences have paid them too much attention to the four attackers, and his Fëanorean ball skills were enough to give him space to shoot. But, during the friendlies, teams have begun to man-mark him, even double-marking him when he crosses the halfway line (as in the game against Rohan). His decision-making must be spot on so he can exploit potential openings, as he did vs the Rohirrim when, as Háma and Snowmane double-teamed him, he passed to the open Gimli who immediately assisted a cutting Telchar.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Aulë
FORMATION: 4-5-1
PLAYING STYLE: defensive, counterattacking
STRENGTH: Defensively solid.
WEAKNESS: Lack of goalscoring.
KEY PLAYER: Celebrimbor
QUESTION: Can they get goals out of Legolas?
__________

Gondolin


(Expected formation)

Last year
Gondolin scored seven goals in four tournament games, with forwards Gothmog and Maeglin accounting for all but one goal. Their offence was ranked ninth in the tournament, putting up 16.5 shots per game (better than even AC Beleriand’s 16.14). More than half of the goals they scored, however, came against Arnor. They scored only once against some of the tournament’s top defences (one vs second-ranked Eriador and none vs third-ranked AC Beleriand).

Changes
In the offseason Gothmog transferred to Anfauglith; in his place as Gondolin’s line leader was Tuor from the Havens. Pengolodh was released and Penlod from FC Valinor was brought in to strengthen the defence. Also from FC Valinor was wide midfielder Idril, brought in to replace a retiring Meleth. Having two legitimate wide players means that Gondolin would field a normal 4-4-2 instead of their asymmetrical 4-2-2-2.

Midfield
There is a problem, though: Salgant and Duilin, Gondolin’s two central midfielders, are incompatible with the Hidden Kingdom’s defensive style. In fact, they just don’t fit well together. A traditional central midfield duo consists of one disciplined player with a more forward-thinking one (either a passer or a runner). But Salgant drifts around the pitch too much to play the more disciplined role. Duilin isn’t suited for it, either; he is an energetic box-to-box player, excellent at moving forward to link midfield and attack, supplying passes to the forwards, and making late runs to the penalty box against distracted defenders, but he is poor at tackling and even poorer at defensive positioning. As a result, Gondolin, even with their two banks of four, look surprisingly open to attacks through the middle. During their friendly against Hithlum, Hador found a surprising amount of space to run in and finish Túrin’s chipped ball past the defence—Salgant had been chasing Túrin around whenever the forward dropped deep, while Duilin was dragged away by Morwen’s movement to the flanks.

Attack
Out wide beside Duilin and Salgant are Idril on the right and Elemmakil on the left. They are both better on attack than defence, which compounds the problem of protecting their defence. Elemmakil is a traditional winger, hugging the touchline before delivering crosses to the forwards, while Idril drifted inside to act as a third central midfielder when she played for FC Valinor; however, in Gondolin’s more direct counterattacking system, she’s been asked to replicate Elemmakil’s movements.

The game against Tirion highlighted Meleth’s underrated importance to Gondolin’s attack—she was their ‘quarterback’, playing accurate balls out of the defence directly to the attackers in dangerous positions, something Rog or the defenders could not do. Creating too few chances against Tirion’s second-worst defence (whose personnel, however, were completely revamped during the offseason trade window) illustrated the difficulty Gondolin had connecting defence and attack when their wingers are marked tightly. (During their second friendly against Hithlum Idril and Elemmakil were given more space, and they had more influence in the game.)

Up front, Tuor is the target man, able to lead the line with force as well as score goals. Maeglin plays just behind him, linking midfield and attack as well as drifting laterally into channels.

Defence
Penlod is a step above Pengolodh as a defender, adding toughness and positional discipline to their backline. The rest of the back four are vulnerable to crafty forwards and midfield runners. Their full-backs offer little going forward, but with Idril and Elemmakil already providing the attacking width, there is little need for them to do so. And goalkeeper Rog has yet to regain his 2010 form, although his save rate during friendlies (73%) is a step above his 2012 rate (68%). (Iorithil of QN Sport wrote an article surmising that his performance with Vinyamar might be credited more to the Ulmo-organised defence than his own talent.)

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Maeglin
FORMATION: 4-4-1-1/4-4-2
PLAYING STYLE: counterattacking
STRENGTH: Attackers, pace down the flanks.
WEAKNESS: Defence and central midfield.
KEY PLAYER: Maeglin
QUESTION: Who will link the defence and attack when their wingers are marked out of the game? (All the teams in their group have defensively solid wide players)
__________

Group B’s expected finish:

1. AC Beleriand
2. Inter Beleriand
3. Gondolin
4. Dwarves United

[the phantom]

Scenarios: Best Case and Worst Case
MESPN Football Round Table

We here at MESPN asked some of our Football round table contributors to come up with best and worst-case scenarios for each team in the field. In the best-case scenarios the rule-of-thumb for the playoffs is that a squad is allowed to pull one reasonable upset, one other team is allowed to pull an upset (allowing them to face the weaker squad), and the group opposite them is allowed to have one squad finish out of position (again, allowing for a weaker opponent). Essentially this guarantees the best-case somewhat probable scenario.

And just because one squad has a higher “BEST” does not mean that squad is superior head-to-head. It may just indicate a combination of a tough group and a likely tough playoff draw.

With worst-case it’s a bit more art than science, as technically anyone can be left out in the cold after the group stage. But to add a bit of diversity in answers, we’re going with more conventional logic and not assuming multiple upsets.

So anyway, not true best/worsts here, but rather with likelihood factored in.

GROUP A

Armenelos
BEST- runner up
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Barrow-Downs
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Havens
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Valimar
BEST- runner up
WORST- eliminated in-group

Any team from group A can make the playoffs, but it won’t be easy for anyone. Once there they’ll be meeting a Group H team, which means it’s likely a matchup they won’t be entirely overmatched in. The key is the following round, where they will meet whichever squad emerges from the B-G matchup. If it’s AC Beleriand, Angband or TIG then obviously it’ll be a heck of a challenge, but if there’s an upset inside one of those groups that yields an Angfauglith vs Gondolin matchup or something like that, while those teams aren’t pushovers they are generally preferable to playing Feanor or Morgoth.

Once in the semis, they can’t count on a Cinderella to be waiting for them, so they’ll need to really be on it to advance, and it’s the same story in the finals. We rated Valimar and Armenelos as runner-up because we think three games in a row against Angband/Real/AC/etc. is too much to expect (not that they can’t- it’s just not probable). We can’t just take every team with enough talent to win a title and declare their best scenario as “champ”- we must separate them somehow.

GROUP B

AC Beleriand
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

Inter Beleriand
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Dwarves United
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Gondolin
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

AC Bel is one of the few teams we put in the playoffs under worst-case. The group isn’t easy, but as no one on the panel could leave them lower than 2nd we declared them a “lock” to advance. We almost moved everyone in the group back a spot in the best-case due to the likelihood of facing a strong team in the first round of the playoffs, but whether they finish 1st or 2nd in-group they will have a winnable quarterfinal match if they can but get through the first game.

It’s true that Valimar, Armenelos, or Anduin are likely strong opponents there, but those squads aren’t known for playing in a scary and exploitive style, if you follow. If a team is having some weakness at the back someone like FC Valinor will lick their lips and try to bury them, whereas Valimar and Armenelos are more controlled and defensive and thus the game has a higher probability of remaining tight, which gives teams with fine attacks (like Gondolin and Inter) a puncher’s chance.

The lowest best-case in the group is Dwarves United on account of their lack of scoring, but it’s still impressive that the worst team can make the quarters. Their defensive talents and focus is good enough (it proved it last year) to advance out of the group, and they would have a shot at frustrating a team like Angband or Angfauglith and forcing PKs.

GROUP C

Doriath
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

Hithlum
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

Shire-Bree United
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Real Valinor
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

As you can see we ran into some trouble here, as Hithlum and Real have both come out as “locks” to make the playoffs, which should technically keep Doriath and Shire-Bree from having a best-case scenario. Yes, it’s clear there are flaws in our system here- a lot of grey area of overlap.

We don’t see much difference between Doriath and Shire-Bree, but felt that SBree’s defensive tools gave them a slight chance of upsetting the team they face from Group F, such as attack-heavy Nargothrond. And doubtless you noticed that there are two potential champs in this group- a rare feature indeed (shared only by Group G).

Between Hithlum and Real, it is tough to say who has the better odds. Real is stronger defensively, but Hithlum’s firepower is possibly the best in the tournament. In the end it could very well come down to head-to-head for determining who wins the group.

GROUP D

Barad-Dur
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Gondor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Isengard
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

FC Valinor
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

It’s tough indeed to see FC getting ousted before the playoffs, but once in the playoffs they could certainly run into trouble, such as a matchup with Eriador. But as one of the best teams in the tournament and no one team clearly better than the rest, they could certainly string together victories to win a title (as they appeared to be on their way to last year).

Isengard would be doing well indeed to make it out of this group, but more realistically it’s between Barad-Dur and Gondor. Either would have a chance of winning their first round match (Barad-Dur looks well-equipped to handle most of Group E while Gondor appears built well to attempt an upset of Group E’s strongest squad, Eriador).

Once in the quarters Gondor could not count on another upset, and the teams they’d possibly face there (Tirion, Real, etc.) would likely be favored. Barad-Dur however has dual dragon-stoppers should they end up against Nargothrond, and they couldn’t hold Sauron scoreless, and the Blue Wizards might give them a slightly better shot than Gondor against Tirion.

GROUP E

Erebor
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Eriador
BEST- runner-up
WORST- eliminated in-group

Misty Mts
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Wilderland
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

With their dependability, cohesion and talent it seems odd not putting “champ” for Eriador’s best, but we felt that it was too much to expect them to win too many games 1-0, as shutting out elite offenses is darn tough, while winning three games 2-1 against teams with elite defenses might be too much to hope for, and we worry a bit about Eriador’s offensive punch against the best squads.

Erebor, Misty and Wilderland felt slightly similar, all with the ability to play a bruising style, and with big powerful scorers up front capable of powering the team to an upset win. In the end we only went quarterfinals for Misty and Wilderland, because while Durin’s Bane and Scatha might prove tough matchups for the defenses of Nargothrond or Tirion, the quick offenses of Narg & Tirion might also prove problematic, while Hithlum and Real both have big stoppers (Balrog#5, Tilion, Nahar). But we put Erebor through to the semis for best-case because frankly they proved it last year.

GROUP F

Minas Tirith
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

Nargothrond
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Sea
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in-group

Tirion
BEST- runner-up
WORST- eliminated in-group

The major concern for advancement here is the chance of facing Turin and Hithlum or defending champ Real in the first round of the playoffs. We didn’t give Minas Tirith a chance to advance in the playoffs because we thought it was too much to expect them to beat out all of these three other teams for first in the group, and finishing second they’d pretty well be guaranteed a team they don’t match up against well.

The other three we said might win the group, thus finishing first it’s possible one of the Group C heavies will be bumped to third leaving an easier matchup for the Group F winner. We passed all three through the quarters either because a team was likely to be there that they matched up well against, or simply because we believed in a one-game scenario they could pull an upset anyway.

Tirion we advanced one spot beyond Nargothrond on account of their defense. They aren’t overly large and diverse, but with Caranthir, Amrod and Amras back there in front of Finarfin they would match up decently against squads that don’t feature a dragon or similar large striker. The Sea on the other hand we felt had the teeth on defense to slow anyone down, and then good enough scorers backed by one of the most solid midfields around, thus they can win it all.

GROUP G

Angband
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in group

Angfauglith
BEST- seminfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Imladris
BEST- eliminated in group
WORST- eliminated in group

Tol-In-Gaurhoth
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in group

This was a tough group to handicap. We were tempted to say that Angband or TIG’s worst would be the first round of the playoffs, but Angfauglith just seemed too dangerous. If Gothmog shoots lights out and the Balrogs at the back play smart and Ungoliant has a great effort, they could certainly upset Angband or TIG.

As far as guaranteeing Imladris for an early exit, it sort of went hand in hand. The other three squads are just all too scary to count on Imladris pulling out a victory more than once, particularly playing away from home (all three other squads will feel at home in the two host stadiums- Anfauglith and Tol In Gaurhoth).

Once out of the group, their playoff fortunes may depend on where they finish and where the Group B teams finish. If at all possible they probably want to avoid a contest with AC Beleriand to start the playoffs. Angband and TIG are both capable of winning that game if they play their very best and AC doesn’t, but no one ever bets on Feanor exiting before the quarterfinals. If they avoid that matchup however, suddenly their chances of a run go up.

GROUP H

Anduin
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Arnor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Mordor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Rohan
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in group

We felt that any of these teams was capable of a one-time upset of one of the other four, thus anyone has a risk of being left in groups. Once in the playoffs we didn’t like the way Rohan matched up with the likely Group A winners. Mordor seems ill-suited to face the power and majesty of Valimar (they’d probably arouse their righteous anger), but we give them a puncher’s chance against Armenelos, as the Nazgul would have a slight chance of creeping the mortals off their game, and Shelob might be tough to contest headers with.

We gave Arnor the quarters as best-case as well. Armenelos will play a style familiar to them, but do it better than Arnor- but in a single game anything can happen (unless the disparity is huge of course). And against Valimar, as we saw a couple years ago, the Arnorians know how to keep the Valar dispassionate.

For Anduin we decided to hop them an extra round, as they have the weapons to better take on their first round opponents, and have a better shot at upsetting a heavy-hitter should they meet them in the quarters. The speed and range of Felarof at the back alongside Fram, a natural beast-stopper, gives them better legs to stand on.

---------------------------------------------------
Contributors- Philip McPhantom (MESPN lead football coordinator), Ruharg the Red (Monster Magazine lead sports editor), Ar-Tar-Aradil (Westernesse Weekly sports writer, NAAF president), Adanel (Football wise-woman for Dor-Lomin Athletic Digest), Finwanoro (Football columnist for The Tirion Times and MESPN)

[Boromir88]

Our tireless team of statisticians, analysts and experts always attempt to find new ways to break down the stats, analyze and then come up with a projection. For 2013 the new wave hitting TTN is "Wins Above Replacement" (or "WAR" for short).

Over the past several Arda Cups we've looked at total production (position-by-position) in order to come up with the averages at each position. Then we looked at the player production to determine the value of that player.

For example, Ar-Pharazon's WAR is +4.9, which means if we were to theoretically replace an average FW with Ar-Pharazon on the roster, than that team would have won almost 5 more games. Or on the flipside Fatty Lumpkin's -1.7 WAR, means replace an average DF with Fatty Lumpkin and that team would lose almost 2 more games.

Some more important notes: Over the years many players have changed positions, and many others are making either their tournament debut or debut at a new position. So there simply might be less data and history to look at and compare. Ar-Pharazon's WAR is quite high because his entire career he has been a FW (but it also means he's been an extremely good FW). Where someone like Elros has spent years as a GK or MF. Since Elros is a mid-fielder this year, we took his previous tournaments as as a MF and didn't factor in the years he was a GK.

GROUP A

Armenelos
FRIENDLIES:
-Nargothrond (D3-3)
-AC Beleriand (L1-2)

Probably not the friendly results Armenelos was hoping to have but nothing to be alarmed or discouraged about. A draw with a playoff quality team and 1-goal loss to a serious title contender this year.

Tar-Atanamir is a quality keeper and while his best year was clearly when Armenelos won the title in 2009, and there was a drop in his numbers after 2009, the drop wasn't too severe and it has levelled off. Manwe is definitely the best GK in the group, but the other pair of safe hands is Tar-Atanamir.

The most troublesome part for Armenelos is their defense. Tar Telperien has a high WAR (+3.9) but most of that comes from excellent 2008 and 2009 campaigns. Her drop in production coincided with the departures of Ar-Zimrathon and Tar-Cirytan from the defense, which I think just goes to prove Armenelos defensive strength comes from the combined team effort and cohesion, not individual stars. When paired with an average and relatively inexperienced defender, Tar Palantir (+0.2) and a very poor Tar-Calmacil (-0.8), the defense will struggle. On the positive side the other teams in this group only have 1 legitimate scoring threat each, and so the team defense should be good enough against the teams in this group. But when facing a team with multiple weapons, I think you'll see the same results as the friendlies...Armenelos vulnerable to giving up goals.

Armenelos' greatest advantage comes in the FWs and attacking MFs. I've already discussed Ar Pharazon in the opening, but it's worth mentioning even when he's handicapped on a roster that is defensively oriented he produced goals and won games. The king is a pro and he has won many games off his golden boots for his homeland. Then not to mention Ar Adunakhor who is a consisten complimentary player and Elros who is historically a better goalie, but is also a proven field commander in making sure his scorers upfront get quality passes. It's worth mentioning Tar Ancalimon and Tar Miriel as well. Because as primary scorers they are completely outclassed, but they fit nicely into the supportive role and 4th and 5th scoring threat on Armenelos.

Barrow-Downs
FRIENDLIES:
-Shire Bree Utd (L1-2)
-Eriador (L0-3)

Low budget aside, the team is trying out way too many players in new positions, leaving way too many question marks before the tournament. It's risky just to have 1 unknown going into group play. Don't get me wrong there is talent on the team. GwathWight's numbers as a defender (albeit is only based on 2 years) are solid (+0.9). But with the unknowns at the back (Alien and the Barrow-wight) plus the rest which is quite frankly garbage, (Lumpkin's -1.7, River Woman -0.6) I don't see how their defense can hold up.

At the front Bombadil is always capable of going off on a highlight performance but his focus is way too fleeting to be relied upon from match-to-match.

The Havens
FRIENDLIES:
-Inter Beleriand (D3-3)
-Tol In Gaurhoth (L1-2)

The other team that might have hoped for better results in the friendlies, but nothing to be alarmed about. They played good competition and statistically came out similar to Armenelos.

Their defense is conventional, they'll play you straight up but ultimately it is beatable. Ar Zimrathon is their best defender (+0.7) but that is exclusively from 2009 as Ar Zimrathon's numbers have evened out over the other seasons. Their defense relies more on their possession game (which they are definitely very good at).

The trouble with The Haven's midfield is, yes they are experts in the quick passing game and controlling possession. But they struggle turning that possession advantage into goals. Their midfielders all have a negative WAR (excluding Falastur...but he's basically the epitome of average with a +0.1) because they just don't produce goals. Cirdan's height is an advantage when going up against orcs...but he will get no such advantage with the defenses he'll be facing in this group. It should be relatively easy for Armenelos and Valimar to neutralize Cirdan.

I guess that's why they have Earendil, because he is the lad that will produce goals. And with the Havens passing game he'll definitely get a lot of opportunities, but he's just not enough. Earendil's best position is in the MF and when he players like Tilion and Eonwe around him in 2008, or Gil Galad and Glorfindel in 2009. As an attacking mid-fielder his WAR is great (2 years as MF, +1.8)...as a FW it's good, but not anything outstanding (3 years as a FW, +1.1).

Valimar
FRIENDLIES:
-The Sea (L0-1)
-Real Valinor (L1-3)

Even if Valinor played a more rigorous friendly schedule than the rest of the teams in the group, there is some reason for concern. To be fair, The Sea and Real Valinor are legit title contenders this year, but I think the friendly results just goes to show that Valimar is not. Question is, are they still good enough to make it out of this group? Yes.

Defensively they've got the talent to win it. Also, defensively they're all in their proper positions. Ever since Manwe swapped positions with Namo it was a most wise decision by the Valar. With the entire field in front of him, Manwe is much better at setting up his defensive alignments, while Namo is better at noticing where a team is planning to build their attack seconds before they're actually able to do it. But not just those two, the other defenders are in their most natural and comfortable positions which only helps them succeed more.

Similar to The Havens, the real problems come in the mid-field. Another team that loves to control possession (and are experts at doing so) in the mid-field, but again it's a mid-field that just doesn't produce the goals. Ingwe's bounced around from being a DF, to a GK, to a MF. He'll now have to be the elf who tries to get some pressure off Arien, but it's unknown whether he's capable of that. And as much as I praised Manwe for positioning his defenders for success...everyone in the MF just seems out of position. Irmo and Ilmare should be swapped. Statistics show Ilmare is better at feeding balls to the FWs than Irmo.

So, it will come down to how effective Arien can be in this situation. It won't be so much Manwe's conservative style that hold's Arien back. I think it will be lack of another viable threat. I mean you're going to excel when you're with the likes of Miriel and Nerdanel. But even in 2010 Arien had Varda and Eonwe as a supporting cast...Who does she have here...Ingwe? Irmo?

With that being said, since The Havens and Valimar appear very similar, and they appear to have the same strengths and weaknesses, I'll give the slight favor to Valimar based on a tougher defense.

Projected Standings:
1. Armenelos
2. Valimar
3. The Havens
4. Barrow-Downs

[Boromir88]

GROUP B

AC Beleriand
FRIENDLIES:
-Anfauglith (W2-1)
-Armenelos (W2-1)

Two wins against playoff caliber teams and they should be able to handle this group comfortably. An interesting fact, Feanor's teams have never been eliminated before the quarterfinals. Even in 2011 when he was quite limitted playing with 3rd Age teammates in Galadriel's conservative style, Feanor saw Lothlorien into the quarter-finals. I suppose there has to be a first time for everything, but this team has top class at all the key positions.

Marach's a decent GK, it's rightfully asked whether he is an Arda Cup winning one though. Last year he was clearly the week point of a very good defense, led by Fingolfin who has quickly risen as a top notch defender. Rochallor and Imlach are in their proper positions and there is no loss when in the offseason AC Beleriand exchanged Ecthelion for a Balrog.

Their loss is going to be in the MF, with the hopes Angrod and Aegnor can make up Beren's production. History and WAR tells us they can not (Beren's +1.9) Angrod and Aegnor combined (-0.5). Now it's true those two have not played with FWs as great of a combo as Feanor and Eol before and it's also true Beren's best year was last year...playing with Feanor and Eol. But still, even when Beren's had to carry the offense on his shoulder (2010 for Gelion) he was out producing Angrod and Aegnor combined.

This isn't going to hurt AC Beleriand making it out of Group B, but it will hurt them in the playoffs unless the brothers can suddenly find the skill to make up for Beren's departure.

Inter Beleriand
FRIENDLIES:
-Havens (D3-3)
-Doriath (W1-0)

We're not sure why the other networks seem so assure of Inter Beleriand's advancement as they quickly dismiss Dwarves United and don't give too much credit to Gondolin. This team is extremely susceptible in the back.

Turgon is naturally a leader of a defense, but as a GK, he really leaves a lot to be desired. He's great at setting up walls and arranging the defense in front of him, when the opponents have set pieces (free kicks, or corner kicks). However, he simply doesn't pocess the reaction of say Galadriel or Carcharoth. And you really need to have that quick reaction skill, particularly when facing the FWs Inter Beleriand will be up against in this group.

Defensively they're even more shaky. Luthien is an adequate DF (but still only a WAR o +0.4 at that position). Luthien is not a great matchup against big powerful FWs. (2008 against Ar-Pharazon, 2009 against TIG, and 2010 against Ancalagon) Luthien was eventually worn down by all of them as her team was eliminated. Maeglin, Tuor, Feanor and Eol are probably not going to viciously bang up Luthien like all those other FWs mentioned, but they will definitely use their size and power to wear her down.

The rest of the defense is in even worse shape. The WAR stat that gives someone the most negative points is a red card. When you're sent off the field, you are really handicapping your team. Yellow cards aren't too much of a negative, because sometimes you need that aggressive, hard play to stop a scoring threat. Caranthir and Morgoth have, for example, have mastered the skil of knowing when to be aggressive and take a yellow, and when to pull back knowing they can't be sent off the field. Gorlim hasn't and is just a morale killer.

A lot is going to depend on Beren who had his break out season last year. That was with Feanor and Eol (+9.8 and +5.4 respectively) however. Maedhros and Fingon are good, but they're several notches below (+4.9 and +3.1). But they should all be able to complement eachother well. It'll be a tough 3-way battle for 2nd.

Dwarves United
FRIENDLIES:
-Wilderland (D0-0)
-Rohan (W1-0)

Now it seems to me that no one is giving Dwarves United much of a chance. They forget defensively this team just has it all. It's true last year they probably benefitted from a group of 3rd Age heroes and now they'll be up against sturdier competition. But you also can't forget Celebrimbor, Aule and Galadriel are all legends of the 1st Age too...with Durin the Deathless and Azaghal in support as well. We'll agree with TENT too that Fili and Kili are quality defensive mid-fielders, the brothers are intune with eachother and they're a good pair playing together.

Having said that, there is no denying what the rest of the medias all say...their offensive players can't score goals. Even with the high-powered Mirkwood offense from '08 to '09, Legolas was below average (-0.2)...and this is with Scatha and Thranduil as teammates! When factoring in the other tournaments -0.9 (excludes 2011 because he was a MF...with the aid of Feanor and Boromir II). Legolas is a one tool threat, and that is long distance projectiles. One of his trademark snipes going in might be all that is needed however, because the only team we'd place money on scoring on Dwarves United is AC Beleriand.

Gondolin
FRIENDLIES:
-Tirion (L0-2)
-Hithlum (D2-2)

Played 2 playoff quality teams in the friendlies, the 0-2 loss to Tirion is troubling but draw with Hithlum makes up for some of the troubled thoughts.

Rog had one fantastic year at GK (2010)...take out that year and he's well...bad, to put it kindly. So, understandably everyone is right in saying Rog greatly benefitted from playing with Ulmo and his loyal vassals shut-down defense in 2010. But as mentioned earlier, Turgon for Inter Beleriand is nothing to brag about either.

We keep catching ourselves comparing Gondolin and Inter Beleriand because they are very similar in team make-up. Inter Beleriand might be slightly more athletic defensively, but Gondolin plays smarter. They don't have a player that runs the risk of being red-carded, like Gorlim...so in TTN's mind, this negates whatever advantage Inter has with Luthien.

At the MF, history and productions shows Duilin and Idril are in their most natural positions. Idril and Duilin are great at getting the balls to their FWs (and unlike Angrod and Aegnor for AC Bel), they actually make up for Beren's production, combined WAR +2.5

Then at the front Maeglin and Tuor are comparable to Maedhros and Fingon. Maeglin's playoff pedigree is better as the "Sharp-Boot" is just clutch under the playoff lights (but he's sometimes not present in the group rounds). Tuor is great at using his height. Maeglin and Idril are good at attracting the attention of the better defenders (Fingolfin, Luthien, Celebrimbor), so it should leave Tuor good chances on some of the more dimunitive defenders (the dwarves, Gorlim...etc)

Projected Standings:
1. AC Beleriand
2. Gondolin
3. Inter Beleriand
4. Dwarves United

[Boromir88]

GROUP C

Doriath
FRIENDLIES:
-Tol In Gaurhoth (L0-3)
-Inter Beleriand (L0-1)

Doriath is in for a cruel awakening this year. It's not that they don't have good talent, but they just lack the depth and stamina in too many positions. And the fact they didn't score a goal in the friendlies (while surrending 4) says all you need to know about Doriath this year.

Dior is a capable GK (+0.8)...even behind a weak defense. Melian will definitely help keep pressure off Dior, but the other 3 defenders are bad (combined -3.1).

The MF is also weak...Thingol is an ok passer but not much of a goal-scorer. Then the rest of the MF...Daeron? Saeros? They've done virtually nothing and it's far too easy for opponents to get under Saeros' skin.

Then Mablung, who is also just..."eh." He's nothing that will catch your attention with how dazzling the attacks of Hithlum and Real Valinor will be. Sure he got a hat-trick last year against Nargothrond, but he did absolutely nothing else in all the rest of Doriath's games (including friendlies) last year.

Hithlum
FRIENDLIES:
-Angband (D2-2)
-Gondolin (D2-2)

They were probably hoping (and if they are expected to contend for the cup) to beat Gondolin. But scoring 2 goals against Angband is a positive. And both of them are definitely playoff caliber teams.

Huor is needing this year to bounce back after a horrid 2011. From 2008-2010, he was a dependable, championship GK (silver-medalist, quarter finalist, and champion in that 3 year span)...then 2011 just a nightmare, and it might have been he didn't feel comfortable in Anfauglith in that year. Returning in 2013 and playing with family might just be what Huor needs to have a bounceback year.

A lot of problems still with the defense, but the Balrog is in his natural position. Galdor and Gundor are not shut-down defenders, but whatever the case they have experience as defenders and history shows they are an improvement over Gethron and Grithnir. It's one of those defenses that is just good enough to get some key stops and move the ball quickly upfront to their amazing talent of scorers.

I don't need to say much about the quality of the quartet of attackers other than: Turin (+9.1), Hurin (+7.8) Beleg (+4.5) and Hador (+1.4). TTN will call it the most prolific offense in 2013. If Real Valinor still had Arien, it would be debatable.

Shire-Bree United
FRIENDLIES:
-Barrow Downs (W2-1)
-Anduin (D1-1)

Their friendly opponents don't compare in strength when looking at the other teams in the group. But you can't say anything bad about the results of winning the Barrow-Downs and drawing Anduin.

Shire-Bree has moved from a strong attacking team to a defensively oriented one. Their defense is under-rated because they've got some legs at their downstairs. What we mean is, Shadowfax, Gildor, and a Nazgul they can all run and won't tire out. Which they'll certainly need in this group, as their defenders will have to do a lot of chasing because...

Shire-Bree's midfield is quite poor. Gandalf and another Nazgul are going to be more focused on the offense, and it leaves Ferny, Bandobras, and Butterbur to try to get the ball away from Turin, Hurin, Beleg and Miriel, Nerdanel, Orome? Heh...riiight.

Their offense isn't too bad (we'll certainly put it more dangerous than Doriath's), but it is a few steps backwards from where they were at last year. Gandalf is better suited as a defender, but seeing as they needed a lot of help revamping their offense, he's needed most in the mid-field. Also, if Gandalf ever really had a place he could call "home," it would be here, in the Shire. Khamul's skills are better suited for a MF because he is very good from set pieces and delivering crosses to past teammates like the Witch-King or Sauron. As the lone striker he could be out of position, but with Nazgul #6 in the MF they should be intune to eachother's minds.

Real Valinor
FRIENDLIES:
-FC Valinor (D2-2)
-Valimar (W3-1)

A tough friendly schedule that they handled quite well this looks like a team ready for the playoffs already. In all groups you would put them as one of the favorites to advance, but they won't repeat as champions. They've simply lost too much on defense with Caranthir leaving, and then on offense with Arien.

Tulkas had quite an awful performance in last year's group play (allowing 5 goals in 3 games), but then he just shut it down in the playoffs (allowing only 2 in 4 games, and those 2 were against AC Beleriand). So, we'll have to see if he can be inspired to give the same effort in the group round.

Tilion is better when he's in the MF. A lot usually depends on his mood, but when he's in the right one he can put together an impressive string of games scoring several goals. Then he's prone to disappearing for a few games when he's in a bad mood. As a defender you can't afford to be off your game, I mean this is the Arda Cup! It's why Real Valinor will miss Caranthir the most. We hate to keep beating on this point, because Caranthir isn't the best defender, but he's a strong one, aggressive, and what you like most is he gives max effort all the time. Tilion's effort tends to come and go.

The MF is the weakest part of the team, their job isn't going to be much more than get the ball, and don't keep it for long, pass it up to the FWs as quickly as possible. Which they should be able to do, at least in this group and their FWs are extremely good at holding the ball in the attacking third and putting opposing defenses under constant stress.

As mentioned, Nerdanel, Miriel, and Orome are not only great goal-scorers, but they're very good at holding onto the ball, constantly makes the defenses work. Defenses will need a lot of stamina when facing this team. The issue is it looks like a team that is vulnerable on the counter...because when a defenses can finally steal the ball away, with the small 3-person midfield and moodiness of Tilion it's a recipe for quick counter attacks.

Projected Standings
1. Hithlum
2. Real Valinor
3. Shire-Bree
4. Doriath

GROUP D

Barad-Dur
FRIENDLIES:
-Arnor (D0-0)
-Misty Mountains (W2-1)

It's interesting how Barad-Dur's 2 friendly opponents are actually quite similar (in terms of gameplay) to 2 of their group opponents...Gondor and Isengard. Like Arnor, Gondor is not going to make mistakes and Isengard relies on a mix of cunning and brute strength. We were rather disappointed with Barad-Dur's friendly performance. I beating the Misty Mts is not bad, but neither Arnor nor Misty Mts look like teams that can go on a deep run in the playoffs.

Grishnakh is making his debut at goalie and so far he has performed well as his long limbs gives the orc good goal coverage. Alatar and Pallando are good improvements to their weak defense last year (the Blue Wizards with a +1.6 WAR...each).

The MF is very crafty with a Numenorean, some pirates, and the agile Beruthiel. The Queen of Cats history shows that she knows well the tactics and secrets of breaking down Gondor, which Sauron will most surely use to his advantage.

Sauron is not a pure "goal-scorer," that is he's not a FW like Turin, Feanor, Miriel, Ar Pharazon...etc their jobs are to score goals and they all do it well. Sauron is more a premiere passer who can put it in goal on occassion. History reveals in 5 Arda Cups (and total of 25 games played) Sauron only has 15 goals, but he's got 19 assists. Sauron loves drawing up set pieces and deceiving defenses on free kicks...so he'll probably try to target the tall form of Castamir in those situations.

Gondor
FRIENDLIES:
-Mordor (W3-1)
-Minas Tirith (D2-2)

Like Barad-Dur dind't have a difficult friendly schedule, but also there were no alarming losses.

Gondor is more vulnerable at the back than Barad-Dur, and maybe even more vulnerable than Isengard. Imrahil is coming in as an unknown factor making his debut at GK. And the three defenders don't offer much to get you excited about their ability to shut down a team. I mean, they surrendered 3 goals to Mordor and Minas Tirith, which means they'll likely give up goals to Barad-Dur and Isengard, not to even mention FC Valinor.

The key to the team will be the mid-field, they are very good at holding possession, but unlike other teams we mentioned in our guides, they're also good at turning that possession into goals. Eldacar is not flashing, but he is consistant and it's difficult for any team to keep him off the stat sheet. And Anarion, well he's just seemed to hit a new vigor and life to to his game after not really doing much from '08-'11.

Isengard
FRIENDLIES:
-Rohan (L1-2)
-Wilderland (L1-2)

Not embarrassing defeats, but defeats nonetheless, and to teams who don't seem like favorites to make the playoffs, and if they do, are probably going out in the 1st round anyways. So, that should really tell you the quality of Isengard this year. They could rattle the cages of Barad-Dur and Gondor for sure, and play spoiler their chances of going through are very small.

The Ent defenders are deadly when they're worked up in a rage (which they might get to when playing Barad-Dur). And it's not that they're slow, but they really don't change direction well. Against Gondor it shouldn't be a problem, because their attack is more methodical and through the center. But crikey, Celegrom and Curufin are going to be able to run circles around this team...with Treebeards WAR at -1.5, and it only gets worse from there...

Saruman's bounceback began in 2010 then he had an even better 2011 season. With support from Wormtongue and a Nazgul, their MF has some bite to it and should be able to hold their own against Barad-Dur's and Gondor's midfield. Their deeper midfielders (Lurtz, Wulf and Lugdush) are seriously going to have to help out the defense though.

Then we get to Quickbeam, who played FW in 2009 (went goalless in 3 games) and last year (1 goal in 3 games). If we combine his two years as an attacking MF...in a ground total of 12 games...Quickbeam's production is 2+2. That's atrocious. The Ent's only threat is on set pieces when Isengard can target him for a header, he's got absolutely no close-control or ability to hold the ball upfront. And considering FC Valinor has an eagle, and Barad-Dur has two fellbeasts, those defenses should be able to contain Quickbeam when Isengard tries to target him for a header.

FC Valinor
FRIENDLIES:
-Real Valinor (D2-2)
-The Sea (D0-0)

If they don't confidantly clear this group, then there is some serious unforeseen flaw in this team...I'm not going to go into too much detail, but here is the deal...

The best GK in the group, easily is Huan.

The best defense in the group, FC Valinor...easily. Eonwe is unknown but joined by Maglor, Indis, and Thorondor it's no question. Thorondor is in a more suitable position this year, he's not meant to be a leader on defense. Even if Eonwe is an unknown factor, what is not questionable is his leadership ability.

Best MF is slightly closer/more debatable but Yavanna and Argon excelled last year. Gondor's might be better as a unit and they don't make mistakes, but athletically FC Valinor's is superior.

Best FWs...no question Celegorm and Curufin.

The only question is whether this team will care to give a full effort, but even just going half-heartedly going through the motions there's no reason they shouldn't dominate this group.

Projected Standings
1. FC Valinor
2. Barad-Dur
3. Gondor
4. Isengard

[Boromir88]

GROUP E

Erebor
FRIENDLIES:
-Minas Tirith (W2-1)
-Mordor (W1-0)

Two wins against inferior teams in the friendlies doesn't say much about Erebor, other than what we already knew. They'll be tough to beat for any of the teams in this group at least.

Their glaring weak link in the back is Thorin. His hot temper has seen him sent off the field too many times. He's not as much of a morale killer as Gorlim, but still it's all the same being red-carded makes your team play a man short. Interestingly enough in 2010, it was Thorin (playing for Rivendell then) being red-carded in the match against the Misty Mountains that allowed Misty Mountains to battle back and get the draw (keeping Rivendell out of the playoffs that year too). Girion's a solid defender that should be able to keep the other offenses in check, but if he can't keep his dwarf under control, Erebor could very well have an early exit. Beorn was nothing short of amazing last year, it seems he's found his true niche on the team.

A lot is going to depend on if Bolg can command the mid-field as he's capable of doing, but he's been up-and-down his whole career. But if the ball gets to the trio of attackers up front, any one of them are capable goal-scorers. Smaug had his best year last year, but even in the years when the dragon's teams got eliminated in their groups Smaug is hard to keep off the scoreboard. Smaug's history shows he's not a FW who is likely to give you a dominating single game performance. He's more a consistant, 1goal/per game type of scorer.


Eriador
FRIENDLIES:
-Anduin (W1-0)
-Barrow Downs (W3-0)

Their competition wasn't any better than Erebor's, but somehow the way they didn't allow a goal as well as still scoring more than any of the other teams in Group E, shows that Eriador is the class of the group.

Elrond's skill and mastery speaks for itself. Hands down the best GK in the tournament. It'll be interesting to see how the defense does compared to last year with two new players on defense (Aragorn and Arwen). Athletically I don't see why they wouldn't do well, and there won't be any problems fitting in with Elrond's system of team and unity first. It doesn't seem like they have anyone that can hold down the aerial threats of Smaug and Scatha though. That task will fall upon Gil-Galad being one of the Noldor though, he should be able to handle the beasties (including Durin's Bane).

As I had to point out to AKM last year, Eriador's MF did their jobs well last year. They're not flashy, they're not going to score a brace of goals, but the rangers work great together. The addition of NogWight won't hurt them either, since he's of like mind...the whole we're stronger together thing Elrond preaches.

Isildur is a noticeable step down from the Witch-King and that will probably hurt Eriador when they're up against tougher competition in the playoffs. Isildur's career is marked by mediocrity (-0.6). We're rather kind saying mediocre but last year really was his worst year, but even before that he was mediocre. He should improve under this team with the stronger mid-field and Glorfindel is top class, but his peak seems to be a few assists and 1 or 2 goals. Speaking of Glorfindel though, he's sort of comparable to Earendil, a well rounded attacking MF/FW...plus he's got an Arda Cup title when playing for Gondolin in 2010.

Misty Mts
FRIENDLIES:
-Imladris (D2-2)
-Barad Dur (L1-2)

Here's a team it appears no one in the media is giving much of a chance too, and we don't understand why...

Their defenses aren't as bad as they might appear in the friendlies. The sons of Elrond still bitter over their mother's capture and torture were clearly playing in a ramped-up revenge mood. And Barad-Dur is a quality offense. Now you're probably saying "wait a second...what about Wilderland and Erebor...both contain dragons!?" But aren't dragons cold-blooded? Anyone else seeing a match-up nightmare with Gwaihir the "Windlord" and Caradhras capable of blasting strong gusts of wind and ice, on the Misty Mts? Well...TTN is predicting one.

The bigger question will come on how many goals they'll be able to score. Probably not good enough to score on Eriador (but the same applies to Wilderland and Erebor). Durin's Bane was called the most over-rated player in 2009, but his game has improved since making the switch to FW. Durin's Bane mind is always on the attack, and it's definitely tough to contain the Balrog. However, when Durin's Bane is contained, it's always easy to frustrate him where he'll recklessly throw away possession. As a MF this is bad, because you've got to back track and play defense, this is less important as a FW and so he's really in the most suitable position.

Azog and Narvi are decent enough, but the rest of the MF is lacking. Seeing as the Misty Mts were not kept off the board in either of their friendlies (and that against a still tough Imladris defense, plus an improved Barad-dur defense) they shouldn't have problems getting chances against Erebor and Wilderland. Those will of course be the key games and as mentioned they already have the evil tactics to get Thorin sent off the field. Durin's Bane may be reckless, but Thorin's recklessness is more costly because he's a DF for Erebor.

Wilderland
FRIENDLIES:
-Dwarves Utd (D0-0)
-Isengard (W2-1)

The defense is not as strong as it appeared in the friendlies. It doesn't take much to keep Dwarves United off the scoreboard, and with Saruman directly calling Radagast a coward, Radagast was inspired to prove his meddle. Truth of the matter is though, from Gandalf's own words, Radagast doesn't have much courage and he'll need it if Wilderland hopes to stop Smaug and Nazgul #7. Then there's Durin's Bane who's just ruthless enough to send elves and armies of dwarves flee in fear (and even Gandalf nervous). The rest of the defense is entirely wooden and Oropher's shown reckless stupidity when his leadership comes under question.

There are many question marks in the mid-field...we'll just have to way and see what the first-born can do. They are prone to wander off the straight road though we'll see if that's applicable on the pitch. Having a Nazgul only ever helps a team, they're all around dependable players. But the wraith will be expected to lend its effort to the attack, which is clearly the strength of the team.

Scatha and Thranduil are reunited and they worked well together playing for Mirkwood back in 2008-09. Their WAR for those two seasons, Scatha +1.9, Thranduil +1.2. They'll have to get back to that old form playing together once again. That's more of questionmark we place on Thranduil, because of all the dragons, Scatha has consistantly performed the best.

Projected Standings:
1. Eriador
2. Misty Mountains
3. Erebor
4. Wilderland

GROUP F

Minas Tirith
FRIENDLIES:
-Erebor (L1-2)
-Gondor (D2-2)

AKM will have you believe that last year they were a team that only advanced to the playoffs because they played in a crummy group. Their group was weak, but the facts are also once in the playoffs...they went INTO Angband, and came out with a victory. Let's take a brief tour of our Arda Cup history and 1st round playoff games hosted by Angband:

2008. Fornost loses 0-2.
2009. Romenna loses 0-2 (and Morgoth wasn't even on that Angband roster, as he was playing for Valimar that year)
2010. Gelion loses 0-2.
2011. Tol Eressea loses 0-1. (Not even the mighty Valar Ulmo could go into Angband and beat Morgoth)

2012, was the first year a team went to Angband, for the 1st round playoff, and beat Morgoth's team...and that was Minas Tirith. The White City was not a fluke last year, nor the product of benefitting from a bad group. And they will not be an easy snack for any team in this group.

Having said all that, gearing up to play 1 match against superior talent is a lot different than trying to sustain that adrenaline and energy against 3 teams...all with superior talent. Plus they play a much different game than Angband. Tirion and Nargothrond will just plain wear down and out run your defenses. Tol Eressea plays a very similar style to Minas Tirith, but they just do a better job at it. So it's a cruel reality for us in the White City, Minas Tirith doesn't have talent to advance from this group...but don't underestimate them. Nor underestimate their ability to give an amazing single game performance that can shuffle the cards in this group and impact which 2 of the 3 others go through.

Nargothrond
FRIENDLIES:
-Armenelos (D3-3)
-Anfauglith (W2-1)

Nargothrond, by appearances, looks to be in better form this year than last. Even if their defenses will still leak big time and Orodreth is not a shut-down GK...WAR tells us he was still a better keeper than Nargothrond attempting to shuffle Beor and Barahir into the position.

It's all going to rest on how well can the FWs hold the ball in their opponents half, and keep up the pressure, because Nargothrond's own mid-field and defense won't be able to do much. This will be a brutal fight to see which 2 can make it out of this group. Nargothrond's style is better against Tirion's who appears to have switched to a more balanced game then their straight out offense when Miriel and Nerdanel were with the team. It's not a good style to play against The Sea or Minas Tirith...because they will defend, defend, defend,..defend with all 11 behind the ball...and defend some more...then hit you with a counter, which Nargothrond's defense will be completely incapable of stopping. So, it will depend on if Orodreth can get a few stops.

The Sea
FRIENDLIES:
-Valimar (W1-0)
-FC Valinor (D0-0)

The Sea's game is simple...they're not going to change it ever and it's a strategy that works fantastic in group rounds, but not extremely successful in the playoffs. We should clarify, not successful because of the way the current roster is built.

Bottomline with this team is, they will always have 11 players defending and it's going to frustrate offenses like no other defense can (I mean they quelched Arien's fire and then not even FC Valinor's forwards could put one in). And unlike Dwarves Utd, Tar Minastir is a much better, more proven forward, than Legolas. Tar Minastir is capable of scoring 2-3 goals a match (maybe not in this system, but point is, the chances he scores at least 1 goal in a game are very high.) He performs better in the group and tends to shrink in the playoffs, however.

Taking a look back at the make up of Vinyamar's 2010 team...you might ask, well how can Ulmo's style not be successful in the playoffs? They were silver-medalists! Yes, but they had Tuor, Penlod, Duilin, and Idril as well. All good at keeping possession but also scoring goals. And there's the problem with this Sea team, only Tar Minastir can be a reliable scorer. The rest of the midfield, great at keeping possession...can't turn that possession into goals.

Tirion
FRIENDLIES:
-Gondolin (W2-0)
-Angband (D1-1)

We are making the picks in this group with very little conviction or confidence...because as much as we look at Nargothrond and think they have a better style against Tirion...we look at Tirion and see their balanced approach is much better against The Sea and Minas Tirith. So, it's just going to be fascinating seeing how this all turns out.

Defensively we (yes) still love the pick up of Caranthir, and that should only benefit Amrod and Amras...who weren't ever able to lead defenses on their own, but should get along fine with Caranthir.

The real question for Tirion is, just how is Tirion going to be able to get the ball up to their FWs...consistantly. Without sacrificing their defensive effort by having to bring Caranthir up, or sacrificing their offense by moving Finwe back to the MF. Mahtan's got a powerful strike, but he's not a possession guy. And well the other mid-fielders are questionmarks. There's no doubt Finwe and Aredhel can score (and also hold the ball up to get Mahtan, Rumil and Caranthir - when necessary - involved), but we can see this being a problem for Tirion.


Projected Standings
1. The Sea
2. Nargothrond
3. Tirion
4. Minas Tirith

[Boromir88]

GROUP G

Angband
FRIENDLIES:
-Hithlum (D2-2)
-Tirion (D1-1)

Angband's got skilled players at key positions, so lets start with Carcharoth. Carcharoth's a solid goalie, the wolf had one terrible season (2010) when Thangorodrim was kept out of the playoffs. However, I attribute this to Thangorodrim's hyper-aggressive constant attack approach often left Carcharoth alone and vulnerable. The wolf will take bad angles and is prone to making poor decisions but its reaction and athleticism is great, and can make up for those poor decisions (most of the time). When protected by Morgoth's more defense-first scheme, the wolf performs much better (around 75% saves).

Moving to the defense, Morgoth is actually probably a better mid-fielder, but when he's had the mind to move to defense he's quality there too. His Balrog defender is just a classy defender, and model of consistency, accumulating a WAR of +2.9 over his 5 year span at the position. Uimuiyan is clearly the unknown, but the cat's quickness and agility should match up well against other quick FWs.

The Easterlings always play hard for Morgoth, but they are prone to making big (and quite costly) mistakes. The mid-field is going to struggle, because they'll have spurts of playing well and making sure passes get up to Telvildo and Ancalagon, but then they'll just have a bad turnover or foolish penalty...forcing Morgoth, the Balrog and Carcharoth to try to make up for the mistake. Which they are of course able to do, but not all the time.

Ancalagon and Telvildo are an interesting combo of power and speed which should really be a pain for a lot of defenses. Telvildo's more of a passer, but the cat can tunnel its way beneath defenders legs (and many have tried to protests that when catbeasts intentionally trip up defenders by running underneath a player, it should be called a foul) and get close range goals. Ancalagon, like Smaug is pretty much a goal-scorer only. Although the dragon's got a couple different ways to get them, tough to contain in the air but can also blast in long range power shots with its tail.

Angfauglith
FRIENDLIES:
-AC Beleriand (L1-2)
-Nargothrond (L1-2)

They lost to 1 title contender and 1 playoff quality team...so not awful, but there's something that just wasn't clicking with this team during the friendlies. Their defenses were facing 2 of the top attacks in the league this year, but still surrending 4 goals on Ungoliant and some Balrog defenders, and they won't face offenses that deadly in their group, but it's still telling us something isn't working with the way the team was built.

The MF is pretty weak, although they likely won't make any major gaffes like Angband's mid-field, are they good enough to work the ball through TIG's, Imladris' (and even Angband's MF) to their pair of star strikers? They'll have to if they want to advance, but that's the problem we see with this team.

Of course when Gothmog and Ecthelion do get the ball they're going to put up goals, but only 2 goals in 2 games for Angfauglith means they're not seeing enough of the ball because of a weak mid-field unable to give them enough chances.

Imladris
FRIENDLIES:
-Misty Mts (D2-2)
-Arnor (D1-1)

The competition they've played in the friendlies is not nearly the level their opponents played, so they've had 2 good results but it doesn't show they'll be able to contend with the 3 other teams in the group.

Varda is good enough to shut down the best scorer on any team, particularly the one's with evil hearts will flee from her bright, shining power, but she can't defend everyone by herself. And the other defenders are ok, but definitely beatable...particularly seeing they'll have to try to stop Ancalagon, Telvildo and Gothmog, Ecthelion, and then a bunch of wolves, vampires and wights. Maybe if they would just shout "Elbereth!" that will be enough to get into the heads of the baddies, but that seems to only work on the Nazgul.

The mid-field is more solid than Angband's and Angfauglith's, Arahael and Lindir are capable of feeding passes to Elladan and Elrohir, and scoring by themselves on occassion. The insane raving of Figwit fans seems to be on the minds of some, much to their annoyance, but Imladris is the displaced team in this group, going well away from their protected Vale and into hostile territory, so they likely won't get any crowd advantage (even though the Figwit fans are notoriously loud)

Elladan and Elrohir just aren't worth their caps. I mean their numbers are comparable to Tar-Miriel or Morwen, who are perfect when they're in a system as the 4th or 5th offensive option, but not as the attackers expected to carry an offense. Elladan and Elrohir will have to carry the load but it's a burden too big for them.

Tol-In-Gaurhoth
FRIENDLIES:
-Doriath (W3-0)
-Havens (W2-1)

If we hailed Angband as having great talent at key positions, TIGs talent looks even better. ShastaWolf back between the posts has been a solid keeper for the Isle of Wolves for several years running now. A pack of wolves in defense, phantomwolf one of the best assist-wolves in the game...then InzilWolf and Thuringwethil up front? Phew...where is the weakness?

It's going to be if this team is capable of not shooting themselves in the foot. Their friendly performance suggests they have been able to player smarter without losing any confidence in their own inate skill. I won't be a true believer (that is put them to win Group G) until I see it when the games matter more and pressure rises. I think they'll play with enough anger and vengeance from last year's disappointment (and missing the playoffs for the first time) to advance (and also be an extremely tough out in the playoffs)...but I just can't put them over Angband.

Arrr...this group is driving me crazy because TIG has it all to be a championship team this year, yet still might not make it out of their group if they revert to old habits.

Projected Standings:
1. Angband
2. Tol In Gaurhoth
3. Angfauglith
4. Imladris

GROUP H

Anduin
FRIENDLIES:
-Eriador (L0-1)
-Shire-Bree Utd (D1-1)

This is another group that's driving me crazy. Anduin appears to have everything to win this group easily, but going through our WAR numbers there are a lot of holes that can be exploited by the other teams in this group. And if they couldn't be Shire-Bree in the friendlies, then you can rightfully ask can they beat anyone in this group?

Let's start with defense, now Celeborn is a solid defender, and you can actually look to take him over Fram if you're so inclined. Fram's numbers as a defender are average where Celeborn has a little more experience and playing with Rivendell's defenses in 2008 and Lothlorien's in 2011 turned out to be the best Elven defenses (and therefore one of the top defenses in those respective years). Felarof had a good year in 2009, playing for Rohan but his numbers have steadily declines and they're even worse when he's not playing in his home environment. Leaving Minalcar as the weakest link and he's quite a weak link (-0.8 WAR, over 2 years).

Some may shout this is hometown player bias but the fact is, Boromir is in his best position. As an attacking MF Boromir II has had his best years, when he's been in offenses that look for Glorfindel, Aragorn, or Feanor to take up the scoring. When it's just Boromir he comes up way short, but he's done well in the MF when there's other viable options. (We'll make note that Haldir is flat out horrible in the position he's in (-2.2 WAR)...Leod is decent, primarily his good numbers come from one explosive performance in 2011, but taking out that single game he's pretty average).

The team's success will depend on if Grimbeorn and Eorl can get the job done. Eorl, like Felarof is a dynamite performer when he plays for Rohan. But his 1-season away from home (2011) he was a shell of himself and played with no heart. He'll have to find someway to play with the passion he has in Rohan, otherwise Anduin will be left behind in this group.

Arnor
FRIENDLIES:
-Barad-Dur (D0-0)
-Imladris (D1-1)

The low budget squad has still managed to put together a competitive team. 2 draws against teams with larger budgets and probably tougher competition than what they'll face in this group.

Arvedui at goal is decent, he's had some very good games going against Angband and the Valar, but also some stinkers. So his performances are quite varied, which means he's not championship quality, but he's good enough to make sure Arnor doesn't lose many matches.

Arnor just looks reliable and a safe pair of hands (or rather feet) up and down the roster. A mid-field that doesn't make mistakes with defenders like Elendil and Malbeth (both had a good year at that position with Westernesse in 2011). Then the Witch-King and Araphor up front? They're no pushovers, especially when it comes to late game heroics and comebacks.

Mordor
FRIENDLIES:
-Gondor (L1-3)
-Erebor (L0-1)

It appears, on the surface this looks like one of the lousiest teams in the tournament. A 2-goal loss to Gondor is bad, a 1-goal loss to Erebor is less shaming, but still a loss. Then you see 1 goal in 2 games, while giving up 4. I wouldn't count out this low budget team just yet either though.

Remember Mordor nearly advanced in (admittedly a weak Group H) last year. Had Barad-Dur not scored a late, and rather unlucky goal, Mordor would have advanced instead of Minas Tirith last year. So despite having a low budget last year too, this team knows how to compete.

Their success (or failure) will depend on the mid-field, it's actually got more playoff experience than Anduin and Rohan's mid-field, plus the Mouth supported by 2 of his Nazgul will definitely work in unison. Shelob's a fearsome presense as a FW (has been improved in that position than as a GK).

Is the defense good enough? That's going to be an uncertainty, but none of the teams in this group have been lighting up the scoreboard. (granted they played tough defenses, but so did Mordor. They allowed 3 against Gondor, but you'll also see inflated scoring in heated rivalries when the teams are amped up).

Rohan
FRIENDLIES:
-Isengard (W2-1)
-Dwarves Utd (L0-1)

And then where does all this leave Rohan? Because a 1 goal loss to Dwarves Utd is not bad when looking at the competitiveness they'll face in this group. And a 2-1 win over Isengard is a positive.

Theoden's stellar goal tending year was when he was protected by his pair of tireless horses and a pair of Rohanian royalty (plus being in a lousy offensive group featuring Taniquetil, The Shire, and Dorthonion...controversial color-analyst called those teams "Taniqantscore, Borethonion, and not even good enough to come up with a cheesy name Shirelings" that year.")

The defense is also questionable, because Windfola and Snowmane...not only are they not Felarof and Shadowfax, but they pick up way more cards than a lot of defenders. The defense and Theoden may be protected this year though by a ball-controlilng midfield that should work well together and be hard for the teams in this group to get through). King Dead and Aldor are stout defensive mid-fielders then you've got Eowyn, Brytta and Faramir in the attack who are all not not alien to scoring some goals.

It'll have to be those 3 though because Helm is out of position. Helm is more naturally a mid-fielder with a wickedly powerful shot. The "Hammerfoot" can put in some tremendous long distance rockets, but he doesn't have the skills to be a FW. His career in the FW position is 1 goal and like 5 yellow cards.

Projected Standings:
1. Arnor
2. Mordor
3. Anduin
4. Rohan

[Boromir88]

Round 1 Matches
-Boro88

We wouldn't be TTN if we didn't have our match predictions. Here's the Round 1 games, with our predictions:

GROUP A

1. Armenelos vs The Havens -

This is looking like a very even back-and-forth affair. The Havens likes to control the midfield, but that's a tough bill against this Numenorean squad which likes to do the same. The Havens still has enough weapons to trouble Armenelos, in the end though, the defense is not strong enough to stop them. *Armenelos wins 3-2


2. The Barrow-Downs vs Valimar -

Valimar will have an easy time with this one. After last year's ban on games being played in Valinor was lifted, Valimar will want to prove they are wise and gracious hosts, but also give their home fans some exciting football many couldn't witness last year. *Valimar wins 2-0.

GROUP B

1. Inter Beleriand vs Dwarves United -

This one is setting up to be a draw. Dwarves Utd's defense is too good to give up more than one goal, while Inter Beleriand has a lot of questionmarks on the defensive side of the ball (Luthien aside). The only question is willl this game be 0-0 or 1-1? We'll say *Draw 1-1.

2. AC Beleriand vs Gondolin -

AC Beleriand should be able to get whatever they want with Rog and Gondolin's defense. Will this be a blowout, or does Gondolin show some offensive spirit too? *AC Beleriand wins 3-1.

GROUP C

1. Hithlum vs Real Valinor -

A high-scoring slugfest for the ages (and a defensive nightmare if you're the coaches). This could be a semi final battle of these teams weren't in the same group, but it's also great having a matchup like this early on. *Draw 3-3.

2. Shire-Bree United vs Doriath -

If the first match ends in a tie than the Halflings will at least enjoy a few days at the top of the group..befre Hithlum and Real Valinor come to put them in their proper place. *Shire-Bree wins 1-0.

GROUP D

1. Isengard vs FC Valinor -

Saruman would not have been happy with FC Valinor in their group, but at least they get the hardest one out of the way early and then have the last 2 rounds with better chances against Barad-Dur and Gondor. *FC Valinor wins 3-0

2. Barad-Dur vs Gondor -

This will more than likely end in a draw. We don't like picking draws in rivalry games, since usually there is extra inspiration to eliminate your rivals. But with both teams looking evenly matched, and with it being a game in round 1, neither will want to play too risky and start with a loss. *Draw 2-2.

GROUP E

1. Eriador vs Misty Mts -

We'll see if the Misty Mountains can keep this one close. Eriador won't score many goals, but their defense will allow even less. If this is a 1-goal loss, then we really start liking the risk in taking Misty Mts to advance...if anything more than well it becomes a tough climb. *Eriador wins 1-0.

2. Erebor vs Wilderland -

Even with dragon slayers on their team, Wilderland's going to be tough for this Erebor defense to keep off the board. With that being said Erebor's trio of forwards should also have their way with Wilderland's defense. Beorn will be the bigger reason Erebor wins though. *Erebor wins 2-1.

GROUP F

1. Nargothrond vs Minas Tirith -

Closer than the experts think. As our Group F preview explained, Minas Tirith plays a game that can give Nargothrond's defense fits. Especially since statistically, you'll see Nargothrond dominating possession, total shots, shots on target, but the scoreline won't reflect Nargothrond's dominance. *Nargothrond wins 3-2.

2. Tirion vs The Sea -

This is one of the marquee games of round 1. It's hard to see Tirion being kept off the scoreboard, but if any defense is capable of that it's Ulmo's. They already kept Arien scoreless in the friendlies, then Celegorm and Curufin as well. But Tirion's got just enough for a late equalizer. *Draw 1-1.

GROUP G

1. Angfauglith vs Imladris -

Angfauglith had a disappointing performance in the friendlies, but holding AC Beleriand and Nargothrond to 2 goals each is still pretty impressive. Imladris won't score...it'll be up to Gothmog and Ecthelion though to work some flashing teamwork and get a goal against Varda's Imladris. *Angfauglith wins 1-0.

2. Angband vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth -

Another marquee match. Angband usually has a difficult time being ready to go in round 1. So has TIG, for that matter, but they look to be in much sharper form already. The wolves will be playing aggressive and hard to show off in front of Morgoth...but Carcharoth will also be wanting to show off to old wolf buddies playing for TIG. We almost called this a 2-2 draw, but will say...*Angband wins 2-1.

GROUP H

1. Mordor vs Rohan -

This will be another game I'm interested in seeing. Now it may not suit the fancy and attraction of majestic Valar, or powerful Noldor, or the regal Numenoreans but I feel Mordor's low payroll will grab some attention from fans. *Mordor wins 2-1.

2. Anduin vs Arnor -

It comes down to whether the best team on paper can beat the grizzled team of veterans from the North. Anduin's got some better players, but the better and now re-unified kingdom of men will play better as a unit. *Draw 2-2.

[Nogrod]

Group E

The Arkenstone Arena, Erebor


First of all the AKM wishes to make sincere apologies, mainly to the Erebor Craftsmen Union, for suggesting that the dwarves would have been greedy to cash in most of the nice revenue they made last year with Mr. Moneybags’ happy acceptance. But seeing the renovated stadium inside the Lonely Mountain just dazzles the wiever – and it is easy to see immediately that it has not been a cheap venture to build something like that.

Happily the Erebor Craftsmen Union won last year by themselves about 6 million, and if you added what they “saved” by cutting the costs this year, around 5 mil (on their part of the lowered budget), then you get 11 million for investment in total just for the new arena – only from the dwarven investment house. Judging by the commercial-banners flying around the field itself one could notice that the Celduin Corporation (Dale-based group of investors) and Moneybags Monetary Management (investment house residing in Laketown) had been involved in the renovations with considerable sums as well.

So the King under the Mountain was rebuilding the "Stadium under the Mountain" and renaming it into the "Arkenstone Arena" for the greater glory of Erebor – but as wise bussines-dwarf had made it as safe an investment possible using the money pouring in from the football-related investment groups. That means, that if the kingdom of Erebor itself invested, let’s say five million, they got a twenty million renovation for five million investment of their own.

Dwarves are great engineers, but they seem to have sense for bussiness as well.

From the skills and tradition of engineering seems to follow an eye for overall beauty and proportion as well as awe-inspiring sense for imagery and detail. And the jaw-dripping creativity.

The centerpiece of the stadium is a huge “replica” of the Arkenstone itself – only some hundred times bigger from the original – hanging from the center of the roof, from the focal point of the four arches climbing towards it from the corners of the arena. With an ingenious system of narrow tunnels and mirrors the dwarven engineers have been able to direct the light from outside in hundreds of beams that are focused on the “Arkenstone” – which then spreads the light all over the arena in the weird but beautiful set of different shades of light from pure white, silmaril, silver and gold to hints of all emerald, turqoise, ruby and topaz.

And if that was not already breath-taking, the “Arkenstone” turns slowly around it’s axis making the general mood of the lightning to change all the time, but slowly enough that it isn’t disturbing (like the mirrored Disco-balls are) but rather creating a mood of intense expectation – and tension.

What is even more remarkable is their system for late-games when there is not enough sunlight from outside to light the "Arkenstone". Burning different metals like natrium and magnesium added with more standard sources of light like burning coal, wood, oil and different gases in their light-tunnels and focusing them to the “Arkenstone” they are able to produce even more intense lightning fit for stronger feelings in comparison to the quite mellow shades of light during daytime.

All that engineering is of course out of the sight of a spectator and all s/he can see is the marvellous light reflecting and being distributed by the huge “Arkenstone” hanging from the ceiling.

Some players had complained about Erebor’s “plastic pitch” after last year’s tournament – and the hosts had accepted the criticism as valid. Sadly without the magic of the Ainur – or elves having close relations to them – there was no way the dwarves could make grass grow under the mountain (of which they envy Menegroth). But they had put their brightest engineers to the task and had produced a revolutionary artificial turf made from synthetic materials created in their labs with infills of sand and rubber.

The players have been surprisingly pleased with it if one considers how fake-grass is generally despised. Even those who disliked it openly held it to be superior to any “Astro Turf” they had played on before. But the spectator is even more taken by it’s slightly emerald-green and ruby-red colour-combination which makes the whole game look somewhat different – and has an impact on the general athmosphere in the closed space of the Arkenstone Arena – even if you could still say it is green.


Group C

Menegroth Stadium, Doriath


A lot of ink has been spilled – as well as I’s and 0’s run through electric data-systems – to hail the great Stadium of Menegroth which has seen a lot of games during it’s history – including some memorable ones from Arda Cup as well; the 2008 finals as probably the most unforgettable event played there ever.

The stadium was built into Menegroth already when the Thousand Caves were given birth, hewn from the rock by the toughest dwarven and elven builders and supervised by the most learned and crafted masters of both races – only to be decorated into a huge single piece of art by the greatest artits of their time.

The AKM called Menegroth “the fairest dwelling of any king that has ever been east of the sea” and sees no reason to change its verdict a pitifully short five years later. And the exquisitiveness of the place still holds: the tickets cost a lot more than to many other venues – you still get the excellent wine and luxurious snacks for free as much as you want by showing the ticket. That actually makes the ticket worth a lot more than they are, but doesn’t in turn help the poorer football fans who are totally outpriced from any games played in Menegroth.

But even with the high prices it has never been a problem for the Doriath hosts to fill the stadium up to the last bench in the upper-rows. The real fans save money for a year or a few to experience just one evening’s games in there – and feel it is worth it.

And the AKM agrees: if you haven’t experienced Menegroth and a game in it’s Stadium you’ve not lived. Drinking the best wines around the fountains of silver and having a culinary piece of art as a snack beside the marble basins with all the fine folks and celebrities around, surrounded by the statues and woven hangings by the greatest artists from the time immemorial just sends you into a different plane of existence. Many people would feel they’re in heaven for just that – but then there are the games as well!

And the stadium is just marvellous. The ancient dwarven and elven craftsmanship is seen from the minutest detail (like the unique etchings on every seat, or the functional perfection and beauty of even the doorknobs to the lavatories) to the general athmosphere (like the acoustic panels which cut the highest pitches that normally make your ears suffer, and an add to the bass making even lesser roar of the crowds feel as a tremble in your guts). But that’s not all there is.

The field, or pitch, itself is a miracle. A grass-field blossoming a deep but light green, like the green of spring just awakening yet strong and enchanting, deep under the rock! It feels, well plain otherworldly.

Neither Thingol nor Melian have been willing to disclose the secret of it but it is easy to see Melian has something to do with that.

Be that as it is, the players love to play in Menegroth because they feel they get energy from the grass under their feet. Although some of the more poetic souls sometimes complain they have lapses of concentration to the game because it is so beautiful all around. That is of course the reverse with some evil players whom the athmosphere makes too annoyed and thusly distracts them in the worst case. So in the end the latter effect is also equal.

[the phantom]

Arda Cup Football Returns to the Blessed Realm
Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

There's so much football tradition in Valinor- so many great players, venues, and of course fans. What a shame it was that a ban had to be instituted last season, during which no Arda Cup games were played in Valinor.

But there was a good reason for the ban to be instituted- the mistreatment of foreign fans. Various Valinor security task forces were disbanded and investigated, but when brought to trial no one was ultimately held responsible. Higher-ups insisted that their orders were interpreted wrongly, or at the least carried out with too much enthusiasm. The boots on the ground and wings in the air, however, insisted they were acting appropriately given the information they had received from their superiors and the reactions of the would-be visitors.

The sinking of Dwarf-bearing ships bound for the Blessed Realm was determined to have been an accident. Conspiracy theories still abound, but the Dwarves were mollified for the most part following a very thorough investigation led by Ulmo. The Vala of the Sea apologized to the Dwarves and promised them that from then on he would have a small task force dedicated to ensuring the safety of all Arda-Cup related sea voyages, provided the ships worked with him on departure dates and destination.

But Orcs, Trolls, and other creatures of the night remain angry to this day, saying that the ban wasn't a serious enough punishment. "Here they are one year later, forgiven as if nothing happened," said Morgoth in an interview last month. "Yeah, yeah, they lost some revenue and their fans didn't get to watch football live, but there were deaths. Deaths! How could no one have been imprisoned?"

The most serious occurrence was of course the deaths of a couple dragons and eagles of Thorondor after an intense aerial battle. Morgoth and the families of the dragons insisted that the dragons had tickets and were flying into Valinor to give support, but they were denied entry and attacked by a squadron of eagles.

The eagles involved in the attack, however, state that the dragons were using the games as cover to launch a damaging attack upon Valinor, and that they were ordered to intercept them, discover if they had tickets in claw, and then escort them to a secure area to await the games (if in fact they had tickets). The eagles say that the dragons opened hostilities before they had even communicated their orders to them.

The surviving dragons insist that this is not true, but say that the eagles swooped on them aggressively and shrieked at them and did not announce any sort of diplomatic mission. The eagles fired back that they had attempted to fly up beside the dragons initially, but that the dragons had immediately dropped in elevation and rolled onto their backs in midair, baring their claws and teeth in a clearly hostile way.

There was a lot of back and forth, but in the end it was ruled that the entire thing was an unfortunate misunderstanding. The dragons were faulted for their readiness to behave in a hostile manner, and the eagles were faulted for being too quick to give up on the diplomatic portion of their mission.

Thus in the end it was decided that strict punishments might do more harm than good, and entrench both sides. Rather Eru insisted on a break from hosting, and that the in-between time would be used to reevaluate their methods and attitudes. He also insisted that various eagles and dragons fly together, so that they could perhaps come to appreciate their brothers in the air and not see them as merely a mortal enemy. The sessions were private and no one was allowed to speak to the public about them, but as no further deaths occurred it is hoped that this endeavor was somewhat successful.

But even if attempts are being made to change the culture that exists, the Cup Committee must have assumed it would be too much to ask if in the first year back they sent a team that would bring a lot of Orc or Dragon fans behind them. Instead it was Armenelos, The Havens, and The Barrow-Downs that was due to visit, and it appeared things might go off without a hitch.

The Numenoreans could be a bit proud, and small groups of them (probably drunk) made disparaging remarks towards their hosts- joking that the Valar wanted to sink their ships, but couldn't because Numenoreans are far too good at sailing. But the Elves of the various havens and most of the Numenoreans have been excellent guests, and the Valinoreans have treated them quite well.

The Barrow-Downs on the other hand- their Wight fans look to be the biggest threat to tranquility, but they have yet to descend upon the Blessed Realm. The new liberal reforms have the customs officials and such under orders to allow any and all Wights in to support their team. Many are obviously uncomfortable with the orders, but say they will comply with them in an effort to show that they are serious about preventing bad feelings and additional tragedy.

To make their citizens feel more secure, Manwe announced a law to prohibit weapons from being within a block of the arena, and a law that would strictly punish anyone guilty of fighting within the arena. Some greeted the new laws as positive steps towards creating a safe environment, but others pointed out that it was already illegal to have a naked blade within the arena. "You could have a weapon, but it had to be secured and sheathed," says Tulkas. "But now everyone has to leave them at home, so if some unruly Wights sneak in knives and go on a rampage, we'll be defenseless."

When informed of Tulkas' sentiment, Manwe said: "The Wights will be a miniscule minority in a huge arena. Surely we can overcome them even without swords, and surely they will be aware of this." But the next day Tulkas fired back: "No, we can't stop them, because your last law prohibited fighting in the arena. If we grapple with them, we'll be guilty of breaking the law, because the law doesn't have any provisions for fighting even if it is to defend life. Those laws were passed just to make people feel like there was progress. Never mind how ineffective and counter-productive they are."

Manwe has not yet given an official response to Tulkas' most recent comment.

[Boromir88]

GROUP D @ Dol Amroth

The 2013 Arda Cup was finally ready to kick off. Up first was the Group D matchup between FC Valinor and Isengard. FC Valinor come in as strong favorites to contend for the cup this year, and were expected to sweep their group without breaking a sweat, against 3 low budget Middle-earth squads. Although, expectations are quite different from performance when the real games begin.

In the pre-game conference, Saruman was in confident spirits despite what many in the media were calling Isengard as the first sacrificial lamb to FC Valinor's sublime skill. Saruman feels the side he put together this year is a strong one, and will be able to handle the "weak and idle" team from the West. Several even left convinced Isengard would not only win their group but could win the whole tournament.

---

But when the game began under the sweltering afternoon sun, the spell Saruman placed on the media during the pre-game conference was broken. And even though it took over 30 minutes before FC Valinor scored the opening goal, the mirage had lifted.

FC Valinor opened the game with their testing phase, working the ball in Isengard's half and around the penalty area. Isengard did well defending at the opening, but they simply couldn't win the ball and when they did cut off one of FC Valinor's passes, it wasn't long before Curufin easily stole it back from the treeish Isengard defenders.

In the 31st minute what felt like a long over-due occurance, Yavanna scored the opening goal. After that, the flood gates opened and Isengard unravelled. 3 minutes after Yavanna's goal, Maglor boomed a pass from mid-circle, and Curufin easily won the ball from Mauhur, sprinted by the Ents and scored. Then 5 minutes after that FC Valinor had a free kick and Curufin put hit such a wicked curve that his father would be proud of, it was 3-0 FC Valinor within a span of 10 minutes.

Isengard's spirits were broken and the 2nd half seemed more like a formality, as Isengard still couldn't win possession, but FC Valinor wasn't trying to push for more goals and they kicked it around the mid-field. Despite the slow pace there was still time for another FC Valinor score. Curufin was pushing for a hat-trick and rocketed a shot but it hit off the top post and Argon cleaned up the rebound.

Isengard began the game actually with a crowd advantage, not only because their fans outnumbered FC Valinor's, but the neutral Gondorians in attendance, even if awed by the great Elves, Valar, and hound Huan didn't feel any real connection towards those players. Where they knew the Isengard team and whatever happened in the past, Saruman had been regarded as a friend. But by the 2nd half, most Isengarders left humiliated, and the neutrals remained in the stands now partying with FC Valinor's fans for the sheer greatness they witnessed today.

Isengard 0-4 FC Valinor
on target 1-7
tot shots 7-14
GOALS:
*31, 0-1 Yavanna (Elemmire)
*34, 0-2 Curufin (Maglor)
*39, 0-3 Curufin
*61, 0-4 Argon (Curufin)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Isengard- Wulf, Lugdush, Wormtongue, Lurtz
*FCVal-

----

Seaside Financial Field was packed to the brim for the 2nd match between Barad-Dur and Gondor. FC Valinor had dismantled Isengard so both felt if they could get a win today they could be in control of their own fates. A draw would be most unfortunate because then they'd have to rely on outside factors like goal differential and not trying to lose as badly to FC Valinor as Isengard did. And of course, you always want to defeat your bitter rivals. The crowd was split pretty much evenly, most Gondorians came to Dol Amroth to cheer for their home team, because the other Gondorian team, Minas Tirith, were playing over seas in the Group F of death. However, Sauron bought up thousands of tickets (then re-sold them at a bargain price in Mordor) as soon as sales opened, to assure a large party loyal to Barad-Dur would be in attendance. Hundreds of Isengarders returned to cheer for Barad-dur and hoping to see a much better team than their own). There were very few neutrals in the crowd, and they were likely only Curufin, Eonwe, Huan and Celegorm who came to the game to scout their future opponents.

For as excited and tense as the emotions were in the stadium, the game began rather flat. Everything from the passing to the players running appeared in slow-motion and of lesser quality after many had just witnessed FC Valinor's performance. But that didn't stop the crowd from exploding in the 25th minute. Anarion has become a difficult player to pin down. Meneldil sent a cross into the box, Alatar was challenging Anarion, but Anarion managed to win the header, heading it backwards to the open Turambar, who was running in towards goal and rifled it to the top of the net.

Gondor switched to their defensive plan of bogging down the mid-field and halting any Barad-dur's attacks before they could seriously threaten the defense. Still Barad-dur was pushing hard for an equalizer before the halftime whistle, but Gondor's lead held.

Crowd emotions were amping up now, after brewing up during the break (and the crowd could stop to get pints refilled). Gondorians were hoping for some more breathing room and therefor Anarion would get slightly more aggressive to push for the 2-goal lead. But the Orcs, Easterlings, Pirates and other baddies were beating their drums and stomping their feet hoping to spirit their team into an equalizer.

To the dissatisfaction of the Gondorians, it was Barad-dur who came out more aggressively. Sauron was working ever harder for an equalizer and as you often see when teams turn conservative to protect 1-goal leads, the lead will fail eventually. The problem playing to protect a lead is you can't afford making a mistake, you have to play nearly flawless defense. While Barad-dur was finding it exceptionally difficult to get through Gondor's mid-field, Castamir managed to provoke Earnil, and the ref decided to award Barad-dur a free-kick (plus book Earnil) after Earnil pushed Castamir in the back.

Sauron wanting to seize the opportunity commanded Alatar to come up and take the kick and get more bodies in the box. Alatar expertly hooked the ball over Gondor's defensive wall, and how Sauron managed to slip past Eldarion for an open header, in front of the keeper, Imrahil, no one knows. But it happened and the game was tied. You could hear groans and curses come out of half the stadium, but they were soon drowned out by the other half which began cheering wildly.

If the game started rather flat, it picked up in the middle, but the end fell even flatter than it began. The crowd was wanting to see great performances from their heroes. Performances worthy of the record books that would win it for their team, as well as break the back of their rivals. Yet, sadly, the crowd did not get what they yearned. Both teams desired to start with a win and 3 points, but appeared more afraid of losing than desiring a victory. Barad-dur and Gondor would play the remainder completely unrisky, and rather uninventive football. Thus Group D ends their round 1 games in a 1-1 draw.

Barad-Dur 1-1 Gondor
on target 6-4
tot shots 14-13
GOALS:
*25, 0-1 Turambar (Anarion)
*72, 1-1 Sauron (Alatar)
YELLOW CARDS:
*BDur- Alatar, Fellbeast#1
*Gondor- Earnil I, Eldarion

Standings (after Round 1):
FC Valinor, 3 pts, +4
Barad-dur, 1 pts, 0
Gondor, 1 pts, 0
Isengard, 0 pts, -4

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nargothrond vs Minas Tirith, Pelargir Park

Minas Tirith supporters comprised barely more than half the stadium. With the proximity of another Arda Cup host site, some of the locals have chosen to watch Gondor in Dol Amroth (some of them believe that Gondor have a better chance of qualifying for the bracket stage). Of those who chose to go to Pelargir, some ten thousand Gondorians bought tickets for the game between Tirion and the Sea instead. While it was possible to watch both matches live (Minas Tirith vs Nargothrond ended twenty to thirty minutes before the kick-off of the Sea vs Tirion), it would be a tricky proposition, considering the distance between the two stadiums and the traffic jams that came with an Arda Cup matchday. Besides, the price of a ticket for Tol Eressëa’s mobile stadium almost was twice the cost of a ticket of the same class for Pelargir Park, and only a few could afford tickets to both games.

The other half of the stadium was composed of various Nargothrond fan groups. There were the Noldor from the House of Finarfin, who either travelled by land or aboard the floating isle (aside from the stadium, Tol Eressëa Mobile also carried lodgings for guests as well as restaurants and tourist shops.) A small band from Angband who made the journey to Pelargir to cheer Glaurung on were looked upon with suspicion, while a larger party of Bëorians who were there to support Barahir, Baran, and their founder, were treated with much respect by the Third Age Edain.

On the pitch, the players of Minas Tirith showed similar respect to their forefathers. Bëor’s hand was heartily shaken by all eleven players, and Telumehtar Umbardacil managed to secure Barahir’s promise to exchange shirts with him once the game was over.



Now, the game: the first twenty minutes was a midfield battle for possession, with the two teams hardly creating any scoring chance. With Glaurung dropping deeper to become a fourth central midfielder, Nargothrond outnumbered the Stewards in the centre of the pitch; they saw more of the ball and kept it for longer periods of time. After twenty minutes of chasing after the ball in vain, Minas Tirith conceded the midfield and formed two banks of four in front of their penalty area. They hoped to use Nargothrond’s high defensive line to their advantage, playing long passes behind the defence that Boromir I could run on to.

But Nargothrond were successful with pressing from the front, recovering the ball quickly after conceding possession. Minas Tirith gained just a few chances to test Nargothrond’s high line. Whenever Minas Tirith got a ball behind Baran and Arminas, Orodreth rushed out of his box to claim most of them. The best Minas Tirith chance of the half came during the thirty-third minute, when Boromir I got a foot in a long ball from Ecthelion II, but hit his shot directly at Orodreth’s face.

As for Nargothrond’s chances, the right flank looked promising. Cirion, like all Men of pure-blooded Númenórean descent, was athletically fit, beyond that of normal Men, but Gwindor made him look like a turtle, driving past him at will and forcing Ecthelion II to cover for him. This left Eärnur all alone to deal with Finrod and the threat of Glaurung, Nienor, and Finduilas running past him. Thankfully, the midfield protection offered by Tarondor and Eärnil II held fast.

Shortly before half time, Gwindor went on another flank run, easily beating Cirion again and forcing Tarondor to get between him and the goal. Gwindor played a short pass to Glaurung, who turned on Eärnil II. Tarondor recovered too late, and he was booked for tugging at the dragon’s tail to stop his charge. Glaurung laughed mightily at the Man’s cheek and shared a fist bump with him as the half-time whistle was blown.

During the second half, with Tarondor more reserved due to fear of a second yellow card, Glaurung became a bigger threat on the attack. His turn and tailer barely a minute after restart was blocked by Eärnur and kicked clear by his father. The clearance fell only as far as Finduilas, who fired a lateral pass to Barahir, charging from Nargothrond’s back line. With Finrod at the near post, Gwindor at the far post, and Glaurung romping through the middle, the Minas Tirith defenders were unsure who to guard. Who will he cross for? A simple shoulder turn by Glaurung caught the eye of the defence—was he angling for a piledriving tailer? But Barahir’s low cross only went as far as Finrod—the King of Nargothrond stabbed it in past a distracted Denethor II.

A goal down, Minas Tirith could no longer afford to sit deep and wait for counterattacking opportunities. They were forced to go forward, giving Glaurung even more space between the lines. He became the focal point of Nargothrond’s offence, the way it was meant to be last year. He snouted in a Gwindor cross around the hour mark, then pounded in a Finduilas through ball in the seventy-third minute. Half of Pelargir Park were silenced by the dragon’s rampage, and Nargothrond played keep ball the rest of the way. Minas Tirith no longer had the energy to chase after the ball, and contented themselves with taking it easy in preparation for their next two games. Their remaining opponents didn’t feature a speedster and a ferocious beast, after all, and they might have a better chance against them. At least, that’s what they believed that day.

Minas Tirith 0-3 Nargothrond
GOALS:
52, 0-1 Finrod (Barahir)
59, 0-2 Glaurung (Gwindor)
73, 0-3 Glaurung (Finduilas)

Total Shots
12-25
Shots On Target
4-10

YELLOW CARDS:
1-0
MTI: Tarondor
NGR: -

Tirion vs The Sea, Tol Eressëa Mobile Stadium

And now all eyes were on the River Anduin. The silhouette of the moving island was illuminated by fireworks and the light of buildings of Avallónë. Those who stood upon the shores of the river could hear a roar from the stadium, a scream of celebration, a cry of awe. No one who saw the mobile stadium remained unmoved by it.

Inside the arena, the ten thousand Gondorians who bought tickets for the game were praising Eru that they did. Tol Eressëa didn’t have the affluence of Menegroth, nor the grandness of Armenelos, but . . . the history. The grass that covered the pitch has been the same one upon which the first international game of football was played. It never grew too tall, nor did it wither even during the darkest hour of the Blessed Realm. The soil beneath it never got chipped; it never got too dry, or too muddy. It was just right for football. Football was meant to be played upon it.

Then the players of Tirion and the Sea walked into the pitch, and even the most callous Gondorian was moved to reverence. There was the Vala Ulmo, one of the Powers of the World, and with him were his Maiar and some of the greatest among the Men of the West. And on the other side, Finwë, High-King of the Noldor, and with him were some of the most famous names of the Eldar. Football was meant to be played here, and they were meant to play football here. At least, that’s what they thought.



The game, of course, was meant to start. Tirion moved forward with intent, and the Sea defended resolutely. The ball moved quickly, from Rúmil to Aredhel to Mahtan, testing, probing the defence of Ulmo and looking for a foothold, a patch of space from which to start things. But the two holding midfielders, Voronwë and Tar-Ciryatan, were smart to occupy those spaces. Time and time again, Tirion’s advance was rebuffed, and the ball went back to their midfielders, and the dance began anew.

Mahtan, Tirion’s left midfielder, preferred to play through the centre, so to offset this loss of width the left-back Caranthir moved forward to provide attacking options. But in one sequence of play, he was caught too high up the pitch when Mahtan misplaced a pass to Aredhel. Voronwë took possession, scanned the pitch, and found Tar-Minastir making a run behind Caranthir. The Elf from Gondolin sent a long diagonal towards him. Caranthir tried to run back, and Amras closed in on Tar-Minastir. But with his first touch Tar-Minastir sent a cross-field pass to a running Tar-Aldarion on the opposite wing. Easily beating Irimë to the byline, he sent a cross into the box; his grandfather Vëantur, charging from the midfield, beat Amrod and met it with a thundering header for the opener.

The Tirion faithful groaned, while the supporters of the Sea let out a thunderous cheer. Ulmo’s defence was enough to keep even FC Valinor scoreless; surely, a one-goal lead would be enough for them to win.

Finwë, however, was not fazed. He whispered a few words to Aredhel and dropped back closer to the midfield; Tirion returned to the formation they used against Angband.

There were doubts as to the efficacy of Finwë’s strategy among the more tactically astute sections of the crowd. Tirion were already enjoying a considerable possession advantage over the Sea (54-46), so what was he improving by being further away from goal?

It was space. Football was a battle for space: which part of the pitch would you give your opponents? Which part of the pitch is the opposition giving you? Can you create chances from that space?

Aredhel was left alone to battle with Ulmo and Ossë, but now Finwë had a little more space to win headers and play penetrative passes to Aredhel and Mahtan from the midfield. Neither Voronwë nor Tar-Ciryatan could do anything, as he simply outleaped them to headers and outmuscled them on the turn. After Mahtan came close to bagging the equaliser with a stunning volley of a Finwë flick-on (requiring a superb reaction save from Hyarmendacil), Ulmo himself stepped up from the defence to mark Finwë. This turned out to be a mistake—Finwë flicked on another Rúmil cross for Aredhel. The White Lady of the Noldor had too much space to pick her shot, and she sent a peach of a curler past Hyarmendacil. The Sea’s defences were finally breached, and Tirion got their equaliser with a little over half the game left to play.

But Tirion did not press their advantage. After the break, both teams played more conservatively: Caranthir no longer moved forward to join in on the attack, and concentrated on his defensive duties, and Ulmo left Finwë alone in the midfield, concentrating on shutting down Aredhel and Mahtan’s runs from the midfield. Both teams still managed to create chances, but they were long prayers or tame shots easily snuffed by the goalkeepers. Neither team changed gears, seemingly happy with a draw at this point.

The Sea 1-1 Tirion
GOALS:
24, 1-0 Vëantur (Tar-Aldarion)
42, 1-1 Aredhel (Finwë)

Total Shots
12-13
Shots On Target
4-4

YELLOW CARDS:
1-1
SEA: Tar Meneldur
TIR: Amras

------------ W-D-L Pts GD
Nargothrond  1-0-0  3  +3
The Sea      0-1-0  1  0
Tirion       0-1-0  1  0
Minas Tirith 0-0-1  0  -3

W-D-L: win-draw-loss
GD: goal difference

[Nogrod]

Group C @ Doriath


If one would have to name the hottest game of the first round there would be perhaps two or three candidates; perhaps Erebor vs. Wilderland in Group E with the full weight of the importance of the game and the flare of the both attacking sides, or maybe Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth in Group G with two extremely tough teams fighting it out. But the AKM would choose the game between Hithlum and Real Valinor even if one could argue that the two teams are favourites to qualify from their group anyway so it’s not that much a game of death as such.

Real Valinor are the champions from the last season and they have shown in the friendlies that even without Arien they are serious contenders to renew their title. Let’s remind our readers for just one single fact: last season Real Valinor lost to FC Valinor twice with no uncertain terms but went on to claim the championship with some confidence. This year they draw with FC Valinor in the friendlies – so one could say that they are a better team this year than the last year… and they were already champions last season. Go figure that.

Hithlum on the other hand has put in all their financial resources to fight seriously for the Cup this year and their offence with Túrin and Beleg looks the most intimidating – especially with Hador rising to his level in the friendlies (2+0 in two games) and the ever-dangerous Húrin parked in the middle of the offence. With a Balrog and Hador’s sons in the defence it should not be up to their defence either. Although many hold Huor to be a questionmark at the goal as he skipped the last season. But with a man like him you know that even his performance on a bad day would be a great achievement to a lesser one.

And it is clear neither team is prepared to lose a single game – even if some analysts hold Hithlum’s two draws in the friendlies a discouraging omen telling they are not up to the task this year either – while Real Valinor’s beating of Valimar confidently 3-1 is to many a sign of the sheer brilliance of the team. But the difference between the teams would be soon found out.

“The Cave” was full already for the afternoon game as everyone wanted to see the two teams included in the short list of the “most talked” teams of the tournament (add to them AC Beleriand, T-I-G and FC Valinor and there we kind of have it). Tulkas and Hador led their teams to the field showing great respect to each other following the fair play theme Menegroth had created for this year’s tournament. The Breelanders in the audience stood in awe for the nobility and both inner and visible strength radiating from the men of old while the elves recognized their partners of the days gone by with accepting embrace, but with the entrance of the Valar, Maiar and the noblest Noldor everyone just held their breath. The spectators knew they were witnessing something out of ordinary indeed.



The game itself was just as intense and high-quality everyone had hoped for. Both offences created beautiful combinations and chances at scoring but to counter that both defences played superbly forcing the shots from difficult angles allowing minimum reaction time to the strikers. During the first half an hour Real Valinor had probably a little more of the possession but Hithlum had probably an inch better chances at scoring – when Miriel suddenly exploded the stadium with a beautiful cross-run sweeping in Nerdanel’s inch-accurate pass from the air past Huor – leaving him standing in awe to the exact finishing of the great striker.

Many people seem to have forgotten that Nerdanel and Miriel had their dynamic duo already before Arien joined them – and now they showed why they are so feared by the opposite defences all over Arda. That was just fantastic.
After the goal allowed Hithlum put in a new gear and you could see the seriousness of their effort from Túrin’s game – he, and all Hithlum players, were chasing every ball, fighting for every possession to the end – and his eyes, which were shining steel and determination. And the sudden flame of Hithlum forced even a team like Real Valinor to draw back a bit to better contain the massive attack Hithlum was bringing forth.

Real Valinor managed to keep Hithulm at bay most of the time, even quite comfortably at times. Nienna was superb cutting passes into the box while Nahar and Ingwinion took care of Túrin and Beleg – and even Tilion worked hard in the defence running after anyone who was looking dangerous. But the sheer determination and number of chances Hithlum created led to the inevitable result.

Hithlum scored the game even just one minute before the half-time!

Hador gave a pass diagonally backwards from the edge of the box and while the defenders were busy closing any further passing-lines Húrin ran for the ball and booted such a swerving boomer into the upper-left corner of the goal even Tulkas had no chance of picking it.

Whether Hithlum had just exhausted themselves with the dynamic rage of the last fifteen minutes of the first half and never recovered or whether they were too happy to draw or whether it was something else no one will probably ever know. But the second half was just a Real Valinor show.

It was a different game on the second half. Real Valinor was in the driver’s seat commanding both the tempo and where the game was played. Moving the ball quick from player to player exhausted the Hithlum squad who were always running a bit late after it.

So if it was determination that decided the latter part of the first half it was confidence that decided the second half.

Balrog #5 was forced to take a yellow card when Oromë was breaking through into the box with the ball and the giant was just late. From the ensuing free-kick just inches behind the edge of the box Oromë himself made one of the greatest goals of the first round sure to end up in most of the YouTube compilations. He booted a cannon of a shot that swereved around the wall put up by Hithlum and before Huor realised it was not going wide after all it was too late for him to react as the ball went in hitting the post first.

Real Valinor was not finished with claiming the lead once more but continued dominating the field leaving little or no room for any counterplay ti Hithlum – even if they had a few controlled attacks and Túrin’s one fiery shot missed the post only about half a meter. But Real was the team calling the shots now – and it was no wonder they actually scored yet one more time about ten minutes before the end.

This time they just saw the defences open with criss-crossing passes finally leaving Nessa to just move the ball into the empty net from one meter’s distance. And many were just amazed of the energy Tilion had rushing to the last pass – it seemed to be true he flourishes immediately when he’s not just following Arien everywhere.

Sad for team Hithlum but in the last ten minutes of the game Real Valinor was actually closer of making it 4-1 than Hithlum was to cut the lead into 2-3. It had been an unexpectedly uneven game – even if some reporters were nodding their faces knowledgeably with the “what did I say” –look. Happily those few would be soo very wrong in their next predictions that no one cared.

Hithlum 1-3 Real Valinor
on target 5-9
tot shots 14-22
GOALS:
*29, 0-1 Miriel (Nerdanel)
*44, 1-1 Hurin (Hador)
*61, 1-2 Orome
*79, 1-3 Nessa (Tilion)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Hithlum- Arroch, Balrog#5
*RealV- Nienna



If the team Hithlum can be called a kind of an family-affair the same could be said of Doriath as well with Elwë and Melian and then their grandchild Dior with Elwing – and their forefathers and daughter – form the core of the team aided by a few of Elwë’s trusted elves. But talking about quality and family: many missed Beren and Lúthien.

Shire-Bree on the other hand looked more like a mötley crew of vagabonds and strangers walking into the bright lights of the Menegroth Stadium: a wizard, a great white horse, three Nazgûl, a beast, a couple of hobbits and men (of which one didn’t look exactly sporty)…

So when the hometeam took the reins into their hands with their organized play, most of the homeside-fans relaxed and cheered approvingly for a nice evening of football. But not everyone was happy with the seeming grip Doriath had on the game – for Gandalf was tricksy and with the two Nazgûl up front (and that odd but sturdy hobbit Bandobras Took) they were actually able to sneak in chances of scoring every now and then – and even if Doriath held the ball most of the time Shire-Bree did actually produce the better chances. And as the first half went on it became quite evident even to the blindest home-fans: these oddballs were challenging Doriath seriously – and that instead of a walk in the park they faced a serious struggle to win the game.

Towards the end of the first half the Shire Bree was actually calling the shots while the hometeam just tried to keep the ball out from the scoring-distance. It had so turned over that it was the Doriath fans and players who were relieved with the half-time whistle.

But Doriath-team had done some serious soul-searching during the half-time and came to the second period with a totally new energy. They were confident but not over-confident, playing now with a full 100% concentration. And they scored a goal in three minutes with Elwë sliding in a perfect pass by Mablung! And the crowds regained their confidence once again.

And it was obvious the second half was a much better football than the first as now both teams were playing seriously – and to the astonishment of the homecrowds it was an even game indeed. At times Doriath was able to press the game down to the Shire-Bree side but then on another the quests took the initiative and forced the game to the other end.

But the farther the clock ticked the more careful or unrisky game Doriath started to play to save their lead – and the more they left room for Shire-Bree to manouver. With Khamûl hitting the post less than ten minutes before the end the homeside fans went on gnawing their fingernails.
From the next attack Elwing managed to cut the releasing pass by Gandalf to Nazgûl #6 and Melian took care of heading the ensuing corner far away to the midfield.

On the next Elwing jumped in front of the crossing by Bandobras and Nimloth swept the ball away from Ferny’s feet from the throw-in.

Five minutes before the full-time Daeron slided late on Butterbur’s ankle giving Shire-Bree a free kick.

All three Nazgûl and Gandalf gathered around the ball at the 35 meters the kick would be given while Dior was organising the defences in to a wall where both Gildor and Shadowfax were trying to fit in.

Finally the referee blew his whistle and all the three Nazgûl and Gandalf rushed forwards at the same time. The Nazgûl were faster and while Khamûl was coming straigth towards the wall of defenders (and Shadowfax and Gildor who were pushing the defenders aways as hard as they could), Nazgûl #6 was rushing past the wall from left and #4 from right.

There was a moment of confusion and whilst most defenders tried to stand the center to stop Khamûl, Shadowfax and Gildor, Galadhon and Nellas fell to the sides to shadow the Nazgûls rushing forwards from the sides - and with Gandalf’s kick finally in the air and flying towards left and Nazgûl #6 Daeron also left his place from the edge of the wall to pursue the beast.

And there was the trick! Nazgûl #6 had no intention to possess the ball or put it forwards – even if Shadowfax, Khamûl and Gildor were making leaps forwards – and made Melian, Elwë and other defenders to fall in with them effectively breaking the defensive wall. But the Nazgûl just played it back diagonally to Gandalf who had meanwhile ran forwards and a little right to gain a free line to shoot – and with the combination of Dior concentrating on the other end of the goal and the power of Gandalf’s shot the ball went into the net just beside the right post before Dior had a chance to even try and stop it.

The Shire-Bree fans were exploding with righteous-joy while the homecrowds were silenced for good. It was four minutes of the game left and the game was even.

And it ended that way even if both teams made a decent try to change it at the last minutes – but it was clear that both teams were afraid of losing more they were keen in winning the game at the last minutes.

So Shire-Bree had forced the hostsinto a draw and no one could say the result was unfair.


Doriath 1-1 ShireBree United
on target 3-5
tot shots 9-12
GOALS:
*48, 1-0 Elwe (Mablung)
*86, 1-1 Gandalf (Nazgul #6)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Doriath-
*SBUnt- Ferny, Khamul

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Stadium on the Rock
Inter Beleriand vs Dwarves United

Banners of white, gold, and red, the colours of the royal house of Gondolin, flew upon the walls of the Stadium on the Rock, commemorating the return of the city’s ruler. Despite the fact that Gondolin’s match wouldn’t take place until evening, thousands of locals flocked to the stadium to watch Turgon play for Inter Beleriand. Their king was a wise ruler and a talented player, they said to each other. It’s just that his philosophy didn’t mesh well with the team’s style. They would be glad to support him—if he’s not playing against the home team, of course.

Dwarves United players entered the pitch to much applause. Aulë was still the Vala most beloved of the Noldor, and Galadriel, Celebrimbor, and Azaghâl were respected names. Then the Inter Beleriand players walked out of the tunnel, and the stadium exploded with cheers. And lastly, with the build-up of a returning hero, Turgon’s name was announced over the speakers, and the crowd replied with a roar that reverberated throughout the city.



Turgon was fortunate that Inter dominated possession for the first few minutes of the game, so moved was he by the home crowd’s warm reception that he looked a bit out of it at the beginning. Dwarves United had more midfielders (3 vs Inter’s 2), and their trio of Gimli, Fíli, and Kíli were technically better than Hunthor and Forweg, but they preferred to play on the break, whereas Inter felt the need to take control of tie so that they could get a leg up over their potential qualification rivals Gondolin. Beren moved inside from the left to be a third central midfielder, and Lúthien took up a more advanced position, turning Inter into a 3-4-1-2 when in possession. Luckily, their side of the pitch had the less attacking full-back Durin, meaning the only player of concern was right midfielder Gamil Zirak. On the other wing, Haleth played a more disciplined role, keeping an eye on Celebrimbror’s movement and often leaving right-back Baragund to deal with Telchar’s forward runs.

The first half ended with little incident. Dwarf U’s defence shut down all possible avenues of Inter’s attack, and Inter could not commit to an all-out attack due to fear of Dwarf U’s counterattacks. Legolas clearly received instructions to ignore link-up play—he latched on to passes from the defence and attacked Inter’s defence all alone. For most parts, Gorlim and Haldad limited his chances, but his pace was enough to give them fits. Their best chance of the half came from a sublime Aulë long ball behind Inter’s defence. Legolas outpaced the centre-backs and rounded Turgon. It took Baragund’s impressive goal-line clearance to keep Inter from going into the break a goal behind.

The second half began with another Aulë interception and long pass, another Legolas solo run, and another nervy defensive stop from Inter. Haldad got a leg in Legolas’s on-target shot, sending it out of bounds and giving Dwarf U a corner. Gamil Zirak took the corner kick, and Aulë met it at the near post to with a powerful header towards the top corner. Turgon leapt as high as he could and got a finger in to nudge it towards the crossbar. The crowd applauded their king’s effort wildly.

After the first few minutes, the game settled down and Inter slowly imposed their control on the game. Fingon shuttled between attack and midfield, giving Inter four passing options in the centre of the pitch and providing more creative outlets (Beren had been too easily shut down by the sons of Dís.) In the sixty-fifth minute, Beren, Lúthien, and Fingon formed a triangle down Dwarf U’s left flank, passing their way through Kíli, Gamil Zirak, and Durin. Beren got to the byline and cut the ball back for Maedhros. Aulë had been paying too much attention to the proceedings at the left flank that he failed to track Maedhros’s movement. The eldest son of Fëanor rounded Azaghâl and fired low past Galadriel for the lead.

After a goal Inter Beleriand were a little more relaxed. They could now start playing to their strengths, returning to their preferred counterattacking style, knowing that Dwarves United would be forced to commit more players forward. Barely two minutes after the opener Hunthor cleared a Dwarf U corner and Beren took the ball in stride and outsprinted Fíli. Kíli, Azaghâl, and Durin were all that stood between Beren and Galadriel, but the latter two were occupied by Maedhros and Lúthien’s runs. Beren jinked past Kíli, who fell to the ground trying to keep up with him. He reached out for Beren’s leg to trip him, and the referee rushed towards him, red card in hand, for denying a clear goalscoring opportunity. Kíli apologised to Beren and shook his hand before leaving the pitch.

Dwarves United player were obviously deflated after Kíli’s sending off. They were a man down and a goal down, and the crowds were firmly behind Inter. In the seventy-sixth minute, Haleth took on Gamil Zirak then surprised Celebrimbor by cutting inside on his weaker left foot. He fired a clumsly looping cross that looked to sail wide, but Fingon, who easily outleapt Azaghâl, managed to nudge it goalward towards the far corner, just out of Galadriel’s reach. The people at the stadium were silent for a beat, but then cheered wildly at the awkward-looking goal. Now Dwarf U was in a deep pickle: two goals behind and a man down. They elected to concede the field to Inter, conserving their energy for the next two matches. Inter silently accepted Dwarf U’s surrender and took their foot off the pedal for the remainder of the match.

Inter Beleriand 2-0 Dwarves United
GOALS:
65, 1-0 Maedhros (Beren)
76, 2-0 Fingon (Haleth)

Total Shots:
11-14
Shots On Target
5-5

YELLOW CARDS:
2-0
INB: Baragund, Forweg
DWU: -

RED CARDS:
DWU: Kíli (67, straight red)

AC Beleriand vs Gondolin

And now, the main event. AC Beleriand managed to bring a strong contingent into the hidden city, and they easily scooped up all the thirty-thousand tickets allocated for the away side. And of the ten thousand tickets for the neutral, they hoped that the Inter supporters would also support their fellow Beleriand team, although Turgon’s influence might tilt them towards supporting the home team instead. There was, however, nothing they could do against the forty-five thousand-strong home crowd. They were banging drums and singing ‘Gondolin, pride of the Noldor,’ at the top of their lungs.



The game soon started, and the home team fed on the crowd’s energy. They also remembered last year’s humiliating defeat. Salgant, especially, was like a different player—he was more judicious in his tackling, keener to stay on his feet than to launch into reckless two-footed slide tackles, but he remained dogged in chasing his mark around the pitch—last year it was Beren; this time it was the Fiery Boot himself, Fëanor.

The first half was a disjointed affair, a battle of tempo. AC Beleriand wanted to slow the game down, play the ball on the floor and gradually work it up the pitch towards their attacking four, whereas Gondolin played a very direct game and concentrated on getting the ball into the box as quickly as possible. Both teams had a decent number of chances, but none of them were clear ones. Duilin and Maeglin frustrated Ulrad and Denethor, keeping them from playing easy passes towards Fëanor and the wide players. On the other side, AC Bel defenders Imlach and Rochallor bracketed Gondolin’s forwards well, and full-backs Fingolfin and Balrog #4 checked the runs of Gondolin wingers Idril and Elemmakil.

Towards the end of the first half, AC Beleriand abandoned their patient build-up play and started launching long balls towards Gondolin’s box, disorienting the home team’s back line. Fëanor had the best chance of the half—he slipped Salgant’s mark and took a long pass from Imlach. He jinked past Penlod and Aranwë, but Rog snuffed his side-footed shot easily.

AC Beleriand finally scored the opener three minutes after the restart. With a burst of pace, Denethor managed to evade Maeglin’s marking long enough to fire a long diagonal to the right of Gondolin’s box. Angrod and Eöl dashed past their markers towards the ball, while Fëanor made a run towards the penalty area to draw Salgant and Penlod away. The Dark Elf took the ball with top of his foot, making it bounce up, and then launched himself into an overhead kick towards the top-left corner of the goal. The AC Beleriand supporters stood up and roared, while the neutral fans applauded Eöl’s effort. They have taken the lead in impressive fashion.

Gondolin pushed forward with renewed ferocity, but they were unable to make headway against AC Bel’s defence. More often than not, they had to get back quickly on defence after an attacking attempt; as soon as they lost possession, AC Bel played the ball forward quickly against Gondolin’s disorganised defence. During one such sequence, AC Bel gained a four-on-five opportunity, pitting their front four against Gondolin’s back four and Salgant. Aegnor managed to gain a few metres of space in the marking confusion and, after taking Eöl’s backheel pass, shot a fierce drive from fifteen metres out. Rog managed to make a stop; he then leapt after the rebound ahead of a sliding Fëanor. Scanning the field as he stood up, he threw a long overarm pass towards Duilin at the edge of the box, and the Gondolin midfielder sprinted past Denethor and Ulrad. Imlach stepped up to challenge him, but by then Duilin had already spotted Maeglin’s run from the right wing. He slid in a through ball past Imlach and Rochallor, and Maeglin needed just the simplest of tap-ins to put the ball past Marach.

There was less than half an hour left to play, and the mood at the stadium was tense. AC Beleriand had an advantage in possession, but Gondolin’s energy, fuelled by their home crowd, allowed them to play last year’s semifinalists almost evenly. Who will take control of this tie and take all three points?

After a brief huddle that took place while Gondolin celebrated their goal, Fëanor moved higher up the pitch to become a second centre forward, turning AC Bel into a 4-2-2-2 (Angrod and Aegnor were too far ahead of Ulrad and Denethor for them to be a bank of four.) The two wide midfielders were also instructed to send crosses into the box—high crosses when Fëanor was matched against Aranwë, low ones when their captain was marked by the taller Penlod. Twelve minutes before full time, AC Bel’s tactic paid off; Angrod crossed low for Fëanor, and the Fiery Boot easily exploited his quickness advantage to dribble past Penlod. With only the goalkeeper to beat, he curled his shot past Rog for the lead.

Gondolin pressed relentlessly for an equaliser, but, with Fëanor, Angrod, and Aegnor joining Ulrad and Denethor in midfield, AC Bel kept the ball successfully and killed the tie. The home team, however, didn’t surrender until the final whistle, and their supporters appreciated their effort. At least they managed to score a goal against a top defence, and, with their toughest fixture out of the way, they still have a chance to advance.

AC Beleriand 2-1 Gondolin
GOALS:
48, 1-0 Eöl (Denethor)
63, 1-1 Maeglin (Duilin)
78, 2-1 Fëanor (Angrod)

Total Shots:
16-12
Shots On Target:
7-6

YELLOW CARDS:
2-2
ACB: Eöl, Imlach
GDN: Penlod, Salgant

--------------- W-D-L Pts GD
Inter Beleriand 1-0-0  3  +2
AC Beleriand    1-0-0  3  +1
Gondolin        0-0-1  0  -1
Dwarves United  0-0-1  0  -2

W-D-L: win-draw-loss
GD: goal difference

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Elenrod: Today: Valinoreans arrive in Middle-earth and lay the smackdown on some petty tyrant. It’s not like they haven’t been doing it for ages. Meanwhile, in Doriath, scoring contest disappoints as Real Valinor and Hithlum put up only four goals, with Túrin getting none. Elsewhere: did anyone say goals? Dragon goals galore as Glaurung put two past the smouldering crater that was Minas Tirith, and Smaug and Scatha exchange blows in a draconic derby. And, finally, in Anfauglith, who’s afraid of the Big Bad… Dark Lord? PhantomWolf and company ask as Wolves maul Morgoth… and his little cats, too. All that, and more, in today’s Matchday. I’m your host, Elenrod, and with me today is someone who’s never won the in-house Phantasy Tournament, Maikalomion.

Maika: Yes, sadly. No luck for two years straight.

Elenrod: And joining us again, because we’ve been talking too much behind his back, not the economist, Adam Smith.

Adam: Oh, were you talking behind my back? I didn’t notice, because my head was enclosed in a block of wax.

Felagundion … That’s sarcasm, isn’t it?

Adam: So kind of you to notice.

Elenrod: And our captive guest for two centuries, Felagundion.

Felagundion: I’ve been betting on lotteries like mad. All I need to do is win one, then I’m free.

Adam: Good luck with that.

Elenrod: So, anyway, the games. Let’s start with Group A. How was it?

Adam: It was what I expected. The Havens put up a fight, but Armenelos win. Then the Barrow-Downs get hammered by Valimar.

Felagundion: Well, I was slightly surprised by the lack of fireworks from Arien or Bombadil—I mean, not even a goal between them—but other than that, I agree with Adam.

Maika: I was a bit surprised by Havens’ formation and tactics—Círdan was played out wide instead of just behind the main striker, and Olwë bombed forward a lot to help the attack. It almost paid off, too—they created a lot of chances.

Adam: Armenelos look pretty safe with a win then a game at hand against the Downs. But does anyone here think that the second seed of this group is safer because—

Felagundion: They’d avoid the AC Bel-Valinorean teams side of the bracket? Yeah, I thought that, too. Assuming those three finish first in their groups, any team winning Group A need a lot of miracles to get to the finals.

Elenrod: You think they’d drop the game against Valimar just for that, though? That’s a lot to ask, especially with the rivalry between Ar-Pharazôn and Manwë. But I guess that’s it for Group A. How about the games at the Stadium on the Rock?

Felagundion: Did anyone expect Inter to score twice against the Dwarves? I was thinking ahead of the game, this’ll go 1-0 either way, but kablam, Inter just dominated the game.

Adam: Dwarf U were a player short, though. But yeah, it would still have been 2-0 had Kíli not brought Beren down. He had a head of steam; I don’t think Galadriel could have done anything about him.

Maika: And Dwarf U’s attacking strategy was weird—Legolas just took the long balls and ran away with them without waiting for support. Had he a teammate during some of those chances, they could have passed their way past the centre-backs.

Adam: I guess that’s just due to his poor hold-up play. Gorlim and Haldad aren’t defensive studs, but they can outmuscle Legolas off the ball. So Legolas just exploited their clay feet instead of playing to their strengths.

Felagundion: And the three Dwarves behind him did try to catch up on the break—Dwarves are natural sprinters, after all. It’s just that Leggy’s so fast with the ball on his feet. Not particularly good control, though. Fluffed a lot of chances.

Elenrod: And AC Bel-Gondolin? Did anyone expect Gondolin to score a goal?

Maika: Gondolin do have a lot of pace in their squad. And AC Bel usually reserve their suffocating keep-ball play during the knockout rounds—remember, Doriath scored twice against them last year.

Felagundion: Also, Fëanor’s not that good at playing in the hole, is he? Glaurung’s this big beast who can overpower midfielders, but he can also supply other attackers.

Maika: Finwë also has the pitch awareness to play support striker/central attacking midfielder, despite being an out-and-out striker. His son, sadly, just doesn’t have the vision. When he gets the ball, he has this tunnel vision where it’s just him and the goal.

Elenrod: I guess we’ll see if they’ll keep their 4-2-2-2 permanently next game. How about the games in the Cave? Was anyone disappointed with Hithlum-Real?

Adam: Disappointed? It was a cracking match! They shot 36 times—more than once every three minutes of the game. It’s just that Hithlum’s defence improved, and Real’s defence remains Arda-class.

Felagundion: The game just showed where Hithlum are on the list of possible champions; they’re contenders, sure, with all that talent, but a notch below true favourites. Then again, Real last year were also taught a lesson by FC Val in their first game. Look what happened.

Maika: As for the other match, it was sad to see how far Doriath have fallen. They can’t even control possession against Shire-Bree, with the crowd behind them.

Elenrod: They did lose two Arda-class talents over the transfer window. Now, let’s move on to Group D.

Adam: Group of Desperately Scrambling for Second Spot, you mean. Well, what do you get when you put a full-grown tiger among kittens?

Felagundion: The other game was actually interesting. Surprising to see Barad-dûr just score one and concede one. Other than that, it was par for the course.

Maika: The highlight of the group was Curufin’s first goal—

Elenrod: We’ll leave discussion of that for later, Maika. On to the games at the Arkenstone Arena. The question: do dragons need wings? Scatha scoring two; Smaug had one and assisted one.

Adam: Now Group E had the first major shock result. I mean, did anyone expect Erebor’s defence to slip this badly? Last time I checked, Beorn’s still their goalie, and Wilderland’s offence is actually worse in terms of personnel, compared to last year. And their defence’s still rubbish.

Felagundion: Fun match, though. The fireworks.

Maika: A lot of people were surprised by Misty Mts goal vs Eriador. Elrond hasn’t exactly been as otherworldly as he had been two years ago, when he led in phantasy points for a long time. And Misty Mts’ offence is quite good. Rúmil, Azog, Narvi behind Durin’s Bane is a decent front four.

Felagundion: So long as he’s not conceding twice in a single game, I’m okay with it.

Elenrod: Okay, now, Group F, for Felagundion.

Felagundion: The hammer, baby!

Maika: The clean sheet was the most surprising result. Nargothrond’s pressing from the front was excellent, and adding Orodreth and Barahir to their back line worked wonders. You expected their scoring binge, though.

Felagundion: Glaurung is back in his favoured position, and he’s back on the score sheet!

Adam: Equally surprising: The Sea allowing a come-from-behind goal. Weren’t they supposed to be this suffocating defensive force that kept a clean sheet even against FC Val?

Maika: Tirion are about as talented as they are. Both these teams are in that contender tier Hithlum are in—I think they’d go far in the tourney. But not all the way, barring upsets.

Felagundion: Not if Nargothrond take one of the two spots.

Maika: We’ll just see how their defence holds up against the two.

Adam: By the way, did any of you catch Denethor’s post-match press conference?

Elenrod: The one where a reporter asked him if they need a miracle to qualify from this group?

Felagundion: ‘A miracle is just a trick played on your minds by conjurers and wizards,’ he said. Well, if he starts praying to Eru, the sea might just swallow the other three teams up. I don’t see any other way they’re staying up.

Elenrod: From Denethor, it’s on to the Den we go. Was anyone expecting TiG to do that to Angband?

Felagundion: Angband are in this funk ever since they lost Tilion. They’ve been struggling to replace his influence in the midfield since.

Maika: In one stroke, the Werewolves went from contenders to favourites. They look about as confident—and as talented—as their 2011 squad.

Adam: And Imladris look like sacrificial lambs. Anyone think they’ll score this year?

Felagundion: With Angband, a famous defensive squad, and TiG, the team who kept a clean sheet against said squad? I doubt it.

Elenrod: And last, Group H. Did anyone watch their games?

Maika: Anduin finally lived up to their billing, quite literally. They were the most expensive squad there, had the most talent, but they weren’t showing it during the friendlies. They showed it now.

Felagundion: And Mordor, wow! That’s the shock result of the matchday. I mean, Mordor are dirt cheap. Heck, even my outstanding debt to TENT is worth more than their entire wage bill.

Adam: Yeah. And Rohan were quarterfinalists last year. They were gutted of talent, true, but still. You didn’t expect Mordor to be anything more than a filler team.

Maika: They scored twice against last year’s top defence, and kept a clean sheet with their last year’s 27th ranked defence.

Felagundion: Maybe Sauron’s finally started training defenders and goalies.

Elenrod: Haha, maybe that’s it. Now, before we go, I’d like each of you to share your favourite goal of the week. I hope you’d all choose something different.

Maika: Like I said earlier, Curufin’s first goal. When I first saw it, I whistled and thought, ‘Are you sure you have enough defenders, Saruman?’

Adam: Hey, that’s a suggestion to Saruman: play a 9-0-1.

Felagundion: As much as I liked all of Nargothrond’s goals, my favourite was Eöl’s bicycle kick vs Gondolin. First, Denethor’s long diagonal pass was soo sexy, then he just receives with this Simon Cox touch, and finishes it like Philippe Mexes.

Adam: Eärendil’s solo run was the best for me. It had pace, technique, power. But, most importantly, it had plonk at the start.

Felagundion: ‘Plonk’? What’s that?

Adam: When he headed the ball towards space before he brought it down, the sound effect in my mind was ‘plonk’.

Felagundion: Um, okay.

Maika: Ar-Adûnakhôr’s turn on Imrazôr in the build-up to the winner was also brilliant.

Felagundion: Yeah! That one. I don’t really like him because he was the first of the Adûnaic kings, but his ball control—bloody hell.

Elenrod: I liked Thuringwethil’s knockdown for TiG’s opener. It was simple, but it was her telepathic connexion with SallyWight—she knew she was making a run, so she faked a goalbound header then placed it just right for SallyWight to one-time it in. But my real favourite was Shire-Bree’s set-piece routine.

Adam: Yeah, that was some tippy-tappy mind games from Gandalf.

Elenrod: Indeed. And with that, we’ve come to the end of our program. Our thanks to Adam, Maika, and Felagundion. Hope to see you again next time.

[Nogrod]

A few clips from the pre-game press conferences in Menegroth and Erebor, brought to you by the AKM.


Group C @ Menegroth

The AKM: How do you see your chances in challenging the Hador House and fighting for the qualification?

Gandalf: You know, small feet may move the wheels of the world when the eyes of the great are elsewhere.

Túrin: With due respect Mr. Olorin, we’re not intending to look “elsewhere” during the game.

Gandalf: I grant you a mutual respect – but not if you continue making puny jokes. You know, a wizard is never wrong.

Túrin: Uhh…

The AKM: Wait a minute. Wasn’t it that a…

Tilion: Should we continue the press conference? I’m in no doubt my fellow-Maia here says exactly what he means – and you should have nothing to correct there. Right?

The Menegrother: Have you been able to annul the first round catastrophy – or will it effect your game today?

Túrin: I suggest you media people try it out yourselves whether losing 1-3 to Real Valinor is a catastrophy – or shall we just wait until your hometeam meets them? And to your hidden agenda behind the question… no, your team Doriath has no chance of qualifying, for unlike your team we’re intending to bash the Shire-Bree team into oblivion – and we’re not in the mood to play it lopsidedly against your team either even if many of your players are good friends and former protectors of many of ours.

Melian: Now hear, hear. Sure this is football and not something that might danger friendships or question good-will… and we accept the challenge our friend Túrin here gives as far as the game goes. But we will be defending our goal with the same determination Menegroth was defended the days gone by - even against him. And weren’t I strongly against gambling of any sorts, I’d be giving him an open bet here that we will not allow three goals for Real Valinor like they did – and I will predict they will have a lot tougher time with my old friend Olorin and his team he thinks they will.

The AKM: Good, well… Tilion, how’s your form personally? Is it true what some people say that you perform well immeadiately when you don’t have Arien around aka. that her presence muddles up with your concentration on the game?

Tilion: Daring can be a good quality but it can lead to trouble as well young man. Let’s separate Eru’s orders and my private life, shall we?


Group E @ Erebor

The AKM: So some say it will be your game of life and death against Wilderland. How do you comment?

Narvi: You can say that. But with Erebor and Wilderland having a draw I’d say everything’s open. If they both lose to Eriador then it’s a three-way competition – and we’re not looking forwards to be left aside from the competition.

www,mirkwoodweb.com: A must win for Mirkwood then?

Thranduil: Well, as we clearly were not able to conquer Erebor in a straight fight we need to pick them the indirect way – and I think we have experience of that. So maybe doing some battle with the western neighbours could help us beat them?

The AKM: So you count now to beat Misty Mountains with as big a difference possible?

Thranduil: What else?

The AKM: And so the same applies to you Thorin?

Thorin: Lord Oakenshield to you boy… But yes. Of course.

Erebor Chronicler: Are going to challlenge Eriador for a win or are you just preparing for a hedgehog-defence?

Thorin: Do I look like a coward?

Goblintown Inquisitor: Well, your former track-record kind of suggests you hide your head when in trouble…

Thorin: Team Erebor is feared for it’s attacking frenzy and colossally firm defences all over Arda. I could take the lead in the offence if required but my post in the team is to defend and that is what I’m going to do. Standing firm and not allowing anyone to pass is not “hiding your head”.

The AKM: But it means allowing three goals for your opponent like against Wilderland?

Gil-Galad: I think this press conference has ended. It has been duly disrespectful and unless you can show some journalists with better manners I’m not sure there will be one for the last round.

Imladris Enquierer: Lord Gil-Galad, just one question, if you please. It seems many media-outlets don’t think you’re as good as you were last year even if your budget is higher. Anything to comment on that?

Gil-Galad: You fight only when you have to. Now we’re off to concentrate on the evening’s games, thank you.

[the phantom]

Group A at Valimar

The sun found its way over the top of the mighty Pelori and at last the second round of games was ready to begin in Valimar. The bells tolled once to announce the half-hour warning before kickoff—yes, the bells were ringing again. It didn’t take terribly long to get new ropes after they had been cut during the Valimar vs Barrow-Downs match, but the stadium caretakers were still mighty annoyed.

Everyone was quite certain that the culprits were Wights from The Barrow-Downs, but they didn’t leave any proof behind. “Today all maintenance areas, dressing areas, etc. will be under guard,” said one security official. “There will be no similar incident today.”

As Armenelos found in the first round, The Havens received solid support from the Valinoreans, and against The Barrow-Downs no doubt the crowd would be overwhelmingly against the Wights, particularly after their bit of vandalism. But the small section of Wights and their squad didn’t seem to mind, and looked eager to take the opportunity to annoy the stadium. During warm-ups whenever a Downs player spotted someone nearby in the crowd walking through an aisle with a full drink tray, they did their best to hit them with a ball. The first couple times were misses and people thought they were merely grossly inaccurate attempts at the goal, but then Saucepan Man kicked a beauty and struck an elf smack in the back of the head, causing him to spill his food and drinks all over the folks he was edging past in the row.

When SPM shouted in triumph and received enthusiastic high fives from teammates, the crowd realized what was going on and they were quite infuriated. A couple minutes later GwathWight saw a perfect opportunity and managed to knock a vendor down, causing quite a few bottles of wine to break. The near section of the stadium looked prepared to rush the field and take matters into their own hands, but it was game time and the refs asked for the players to take their positions.

As the match got underway it was clear to the spectators that the BDowns was doing a lot of talking, but they weren’t doing anything physical to get them in trouble with the refs. A couple of Havens players in particular seemed to be singled out for attention—Ar Zimrathan and Eriol couldn’t go anywhere without BDowns players getting right in their ear.

But The Havens were professionals and didn’t react, and began testing the defense of their opposition. Only a few minutes in Falastur found Earendil in the middle and he broke down the BDowns defense with a quick turn and pass to Cirdan who gave it right back, and only a correct guess by Alien in goal kept The Havens from taking the early lead. The Barrow-Wight and other defenders didn’t look concerned though—they knew coming in that they would have trouble containing Earendil and friends. And as the half rolled along it was clear that they planned for it, holding the ball for long periods of time and pulling back their forwards to help out with defense and possession. It was clear that they wouldn’t score playing like that, but neither would The Havens. BDowns was just trying to shorten the game.

Havens responded to BDown’s passivity by turning up their defensive pressure, and on offense they figured if things were going to be tough sledding they may as well go for some set pieces, hoping that the athleticism up front and their Numenorean height might yield a goal. And so they started purposefully earning corners—kicking it off of defenders and out of bounds instead of attempting to attack from the side. The tactic led to some wasted possession, but it also earned them a few opportunities, and sure enough it yielded results. On their second attempt Ar Zimrathan managed to get a clear header and forced a save, and then finally at minute 36 Cirdan put one nearly in and Earwen volleyed it back off the rebound. Havens had the lead!

As expected the bells rang in celebration, and the crowd felt much better indeed. It would satisfy them immensely to see these trouble-makers beaten.

When the second half started the crowd was expecting more of the same, but BDowns had a surprise in store, and on their first opportunity they played a long ball to SPM and dashed forward like maniacs in support. SPM brought it down brilliantly, stalled for just a second baiting his mark, then made the move past and sent one hanging up in the box. The mass rush had caught Havens off-guard and they were outnumbered in front of goal five to four, with WilWight and BarrowWight close behind. Mithrellas managed to get just the top of her head on the ball, but it went straight to Goldberry, and she immediately sent it at the left post. Amandil saved it brilliantly but couldn’t gather it in, and when Annael tried to clear it he was in too deep and surrounded, and the clearance was blocked across the goal face by Lalwende, and showing amazing reaction speed Bombadil stretched his big boot forward and redirected the ball into the net. It was tied!

The Havens supporters and Valinoreans groaned while the small Wight section cheered, and then to everyone’s surprise the bells started ringing! But it wasn’t the usual beautiful deep melodious booms, but rather more tinny and percussive, and no wonder—lone Wights around the top of the stadium were throwing rocks at the bells!

It took the security teams several minutes to round up and subdue the guilty, and while the crowd was paying attention to that the game on the field was going again. When the crowd finally paid attention again it looked like the game had reset back to the first half—apparently the Wights had forged their tie and were just going to keep it that way until near the end, back to the original plan. The Havens went back to work on offense, but they were trying a bit too hard it seemed, as they just didn’t look as clean and controlled as they were finishing the first half. And then to add to it all the talking (what on earth were they saying?) finally got to Ar Zimrathan and Imrazor, and just two minutes apart they both got carded for reacting aggressively, so now they couldn’t defend as aggressively.

Near the hour mark the BDowns changed their tactics back again. Earwen sent a long curving ball at the goal, but Lumpkin headed it away, and when it fell to Barrow-Wight he launched it high and across midfield. Olwe moved into position to receive it at his feet, but then realized that the entire Downs team was bearing down on him and may actually arrive before the ball, so he moved forward and headed it just before Goldberry could arrive. His header flew half the distance back to the goal, but unfortunately it was straight at GwathWight, and he boomed it forward again. Imrazor and Annael saw it too late and made a bad decision of moving the line up. If they had done so sooner they would’ve caught BDowns on the wrong side, but since they were late starting they released Bombadil, SPM, and Hookbill all behind them to face Amandil! The crowd hoped that the pass forward would be too tall or too hot to handle, but Bombadil caught it and slowed it with a deft touch, sent it over to Hookbill, and he made Amandil commit before sending it to SPM for the easy finish. The Barrow-Downs was up!

And again, the bells were being bombarded by naughty Wights, only there were more of them this time, and extra security had to be called upstairs to help apprehend the culprits, who led the guards on a merry chase. Meanwhile back on the field The Havens wasn’t looking as outraged as the crowd, but rather they seemed to appreciate the fight the opposition showed, and acknowledging that a worthy opponent was on the field seemed to steel their resolve and cause them to raise their game. The next ten minutes was just a clinic of spacing and ball movement and moving to open areas without the ball, and twice The Havens made BDowns sweat—once with a strong drive from Cirdan that went just wide, and again as Earendil found the seam only to be foiled last-second by Alien.

But The Havens could not be denied, and at last their star forward Earendil got the payoff he deserved off a nice cross from Falastur, and the game was level yet again. The crowd roared, happier than they had been since the first half. But the bells were silent. It turned out when extra security was called up to subdue the rock throwers, that left the bell ropes unguarded and yet again devious Wights had climbed up from below and cut them. (In fact that was probably the whole point of the rock-throwing in the first place—to give the bell-guards something else to worry about.)

The fans were annoyed again, and they grew only more annoyed as it was made obvious on the field that their team was at last slowing down, tired from the previous push, and somewhat unwilling to pressure the BDowns possession, perhaps concerned about another furious charge? At last the final whistle sounded and the fans half-heartedly applauded. They had gotten a point at least, but they had really hoped for more. Now Havens would have to defeat Valimar—the home team and true favorite for most of those in attendance.

Havens 2-2 Barrow-Downs
on target 7-5
tot shots 17-13
GOALS:
*36, 1-0 Earwen (Cirdan)
*48, 1-1 Bombadil (LalwendeMP)
*59, 1-2 SPM (Hookbill)
*71, 2-2 Earendil (Falastur)
YELLOW CARDS:
*BDowns- LalwendeMP, Hookbill
*Havens- Imrazor, Eriol, Falastur

The Havens fans and Wights streamed out and masses of Numenoreans replaced them, but the south side of the stadium stayed put—they had purchased double-session tickets. Most of the south-siders were Valinoreans that supported Valimar first then Havens, but here and there a Numenorean pocket could be found that simply wanted to see the first match as well. Once the stadium filled these Numenorean pockets gladly exchanged places with Valimar fans that found themselves in predominantly Numenorean sections, thus the stadium became nicely uniform, with Armenelos fans on the north and Valimar everywhere else.

Both sides were greeted enthusiastically—these were the clear group favorites after the first round, and particularly after the early game had resulted in a draw. If Armenelos or Valimar could claim a victory, they’d officially clinch a spot in the playoffs, and more than likely the right to host their first playoff match. There was definitely tension between the squads and fans, but things stayed respectful. They appreciated good play and sportsmanship enough to know that the respect was deserved.

As the match started it was soon clear that both sides were being careful. They trusted their discipline and intelligence, confident that they could keep the other side off the board so long as they didn’t make mistakes. And for the first half hour it seemed like they were correct, as neither side could make any headway. The best chance Valimar had was a long drive from Irmo that Tar Atanamir caught easily, and Armenelos only managed a couple headers that sprayed wide.

But knowledgeable Valimar fans were a bit worried, as those headers were won a little too easily, and too close to Manwe. The back line was getting out-jumped and muscled and couldn’t do enough to push Ar Pharazon and Ar Adunkhor away from where they intended to be. At the 40 minute mark it really got the attention of Manwe, as Tar Miriel curled in a beauty and Ar Adunakhor headed it perfectly, and only a finger-tip stretch from Manwe sent it off the post and away.

After that Namo retreated for the rest of the half and did his best to take on the forwards for Armenelos, and co-directing the defense with Manwe. During halftime Armenelos didn’t make any adjustments as really there hadn’t been time to see if the new defense was working better, but quickly into the second half it was obvious that Valimar was gaining ground. At 52 minutes Arien gained her first threatening look, as she took Vaire’s pass with a nice sideways first touch to get around Tar Calmacil and then held off Tar Telperien as she gave it a boot, but Tar Atanamir blocked it straight down and gathered it in.

The crowd was all a bundle of nerves, constantly rising out of their seats with a cheer only to have it die in their throats as they sat back down, and other times groaning and then sighing in relief as the other side had their turn. Both sides were playing skillfully, and the commentators were no doubt handing out compliments left and right.

Finally at the hour mark the scoreboard saw its first action—Tar Telemmaite appeared to look for the forwards and sent in a cross, but instead it bent farther out and to the opposite side for Elros, and the defense had sagged off of him towards the forwards leaving him clear. He sent a pinpoint header high and to the near post, and Manwe barely batted it away, but it ricocheted off Este and to Ar Pharazon, and he nudged it down and forward with his chest and kneed it between Namo and the diving Manwe to send Armenelos into the lead!

The Numenoreans began singing their ancient fight songs and the Valinoreans shook their heads. Armenelos already had the win over the Havens and was up a goal with 30 left against Valimar, and their remaining game was against the team picked to finish last. They were certainly in the best position, and if both of the home favorites were to advance Valimar would need to come back and do it fast.

And they certainly tried, opting for a more aggressive positioning and devoting Namo to supporting the attack again, but Elros ordered Armenelos to go on full defense and time-wasting mode, and it was tough sledding for the Ainur and their friends. The Numenoreans in the crowd debated the strategy, wondering if they could now catch Valimar with a counter if they were more aggressive, but most agreed that it was the right percentage play. Even if Valimar did manage to score once, surely they wouldn’t score twice, and a draw would be plenty good for Armenelos with only Barrow-Downs remaining on their schedule.

But the strategy was second-guessed quite a bit after the 70-minute mark when Namo nearly put one past Tar Atanamir, who was fortunately on top of his game. And then a bit later Ingwe managed to wrong-foot two defenders and took advantage by splitting them with a shot that skimmed just over the crossbar. While the Numenoreans were sweating, Valimar was more so, as close calls don’t equal goals, and time was ticking away.

At minute 85, just as Armenelos fans were starting to feel good, Valimar’s big off-season addition finally earned her paycheck. Arien received it from Ingwe a good 40 yards out, and she made to send it back, but instead turned suddenly and was past two defenders before they could register what she was up to. Tar Palantir was there to meet her but she angled right and rounded him with precision just as Telperien closed from the side. She then faked the shot to freeze the remaining defender and keeper then snapped her left foot and squeezed it between the post and Atanamir’s outstretched arms. Valimar had drawn level! And the bells were working again.

Arien wanted to push for the lead after that, but the rest of the team (and the stadium) thought it smart to just take the result as it was, and Armenelos seemed to agree. Both teams would leave with 4 points in group, sitting atop the standings and controlling their own destiny.

Armenelos 1-1 Valimar
on target 4-5
tot shots 12-14
GOALS:
*60, 1-0 ArPharazon (Elros)
*85, 1-1 Arien (Ingwe)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Armenelos- ArPharazon, ArGimilzor
*Valimar- Namo, Amarie

--------------------------------

GROUP A STANDINGS

---------  W-D-L   Pts  Score
Valimar    1-1-0   4    3-1
Armenelos  1-1-0   4    3-2
Havens     0-1-1   1    3-4
BDowns     0-1-1   1    2-4

LAST GAMES
Armenelos vs Barrow-Downs
Havens vs Valimar