Arda Cup Football 2013

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nargothrond vs Minas Tirith, Pelargir Park

Minas Tirith supporters comprised barely more than half the stadium. With the proximity of another Arda Cup host site, some of the locals have chosen to watch Gondor in Dol Amroth (some of them believe that Gondor have a better chance of qualifying for the bracket stage). Of those who chose to go to Pelargir, some ten thousand Gondorians bought tickets for the game between Tirion and the Sea instead. While it was possible to watch both matches live (Minas Tirith vs Nargothrond ended twenty to thirty minutes before the kick-off of the Sea vs Tirion), it would be a tricky proposition, considering the distance between the two stadiums and the traffic jams that came with an Arda Cup matchday. Besides, the price of a ticket for Tol Eressëa’s mobile stadium almost was twice the cost of a ticket of the same class for Pelargir Park, and only a few could afford tickets to both games.

The other half of the stadium was composed of various Nargothrond fan groups. There were the Noldor from the House of Finarfin, who either travelled by land or aboard the floating isle (aside from the stadium, Tol Eressëa Mobile also carried lodgings for guests as well as restaurants and tourist shops.) A small band from Angband who made the journey to Pelargir to cheer Glaurung on were looked upon with suspicion, while a larger party of Bëorians who were there to support Barahir, Baran, and their founder, were treated with much respect by the Third Age Edain.

On the pitch, the players of Minas Tirith showed similar respect to their forefathers. Bëor’s hand was heartily shaken by all eleven players, and Telumehtar Umbardacil managed to secure Barahir’s promise to exchange shirts with him once the game was over.



Now, the game: the first twenty minutes was a midfield battle for possession, with the two teams hardly creating any scoring chance. With Glaurung dropping deeper to become a fourth central midfielder, Nargothrond outnumbered the Stewards in the centre of the pitch; they saw more of the ball and kept it for longer periods of time. After twenty minutes of chasing after the ball in vain, Minas Tirith conceded the midfield and formed two banks of four in front of their penalty area. They hoped to use Nargothrond’s high defensive line to their advantage, playing long passes behind the defence that Boromir I could run on to.

But Nargothrond were successful with pressing from the front, recovering the ball quickly after conceding possession. Minas Tirith gained just a few chances to test Nargothrond’s high line. Whenever Minas Tirith got a ball behind Baran and Arminas, Orodreth rushed out of his box to claim most of them. The best Minas Tirith chance of the half came during the thirty-third minute, when Boromir I got a foot in a long ball from Ecthelion II, but hit his shot directly at Orodreth’s face.

As for Nargothrond’s chances, the right flank looked promising. Cirion, like all Men of pure-blooded Númenórean descent, was athletically fit, beyond that of normal Men, but Gwindor made him look like a turtle, driving past him at will and forcing Ecthelion II to cover for him. This left Eärnur all alone to deal with Finrod and the threat of Glaurung, Nienor, and Finduilas running past him. Thankfully, the midfield protection offered by Tarondor and Eärnil II held fast.

Shortly before half time, Gwindor went on another flank run, easily beating Cirion again and forcing Tarondor to get between him and the goal. Gwindor played a short pass to Glaurung, who turned on Eärnil II. Tarondor recovered too late, and he was booked for tugging at the dragon’s tail to stop his charge. Glaurung laughed mightily at the Man’s cheek and shared a fist bump with him as the half-time whistle was blown.

During the second half, with Tarondor more reserved due to fear of a second yellow card, Glaurung became a bigger threat on the attack. His turn and tailer barely a minute after restart was blocked by Eärnur and kicked clear by his father. The clearance fell only as far as Finduilas, who fired a lateral pass to Barahir, charging from Nargothrond’s back line. With Finrod at the near post, Gwindor at the far post, and Glaurung romping through the middle, the Minas Tirith defenders were unsure who to guard. Who will he cross for? A simple shoulder turn by Glaurung caught the eye of the defence—was he angling for a piledriving tailer? But Barahir’s low cross only went as far as Finrod—the King of Nargothrond stabbed it in past a distracted Denethor II.

A goal down, Minas Tirith could no longer afford to sit deep and wait for counterattacking opportunities. They were forced to go forward, giving Glaurung even more space between the lines. He became the focal point of Nargothrond’s offence, the way it was meant to be last year. He snouted in a Gwindor cross around the hour mark, then pounded in a Finduilas through ball in the seventy-third minute. Half of Pelargir Park were silenced by the dragon’s rampage, and Nargothrond played keep ball the rest of the way. Minas Tirith no longer had the energy to chase after the ball, and contented themselves with taking it easy in preparation for their next two games. Their remaining opponents didn’t feature a speedster and a ferocious beast, after all, and they might have a better chance against them. At least, that’s what they believed that day.

Minas Tirith 0-3 Nargothrond
GOALS:
52, 0-1 Finrod (Barahir)
59, 0-2 Glaurung (Gwindor)
73, 0-3 Glaurung (Finduilas)

Total Shots
12-25
Shots On Target
4-10

YELLOW CARDS:
1-0
MTI: Tarondor
NGR: -

Tirion vs The Sea, Tol Eressëa Mobile Stadium

And now all eyes were on the River Anduin. The silhouette of the moving island was illuminated by fireworks and the light of buildings of Avallónë. Those who stood upon the shores of the river could hear a roar from the stadium, a scream of celebration, a cry of awe. No one who saw the mobile stadium remained unmoved by it.

Inside the arena, the ten thousand Gondorians who bought tickets for the game were praising Eru that they did. Tol Eressëa didn’t have the affluence of Menegroth, nor the grandness of Armenelos, but . . . the history. The grass that covered the pitch has been the same one upon which the first international game of football was played. It never grew too tall, nor did it wither even during the darkest hour of the Blessed Realm. The soil beneath it never got chipped; it never got too dry, or too muddy. It was just right for football. Football was meant to be played upon it.

Then the players of Tirion and the Sea walked into the pitch, and even the most callous Gondorian was moved to reverence. There was the Vala Ulmo, one of the Powers of the World, and with him were his Maiar and some of the greatest among the Men of the West. And on the other side, Finwë, High-King of the Noldor, and with him were some of the most famous names of the Eldar. Football was meant to be played here, and they were meant to play football here. At least, that’s what they thought.



The game, of course, was meant to start. Tirion moved forward with intent, and the Sea defended resolutely. The ball moved quickly, from Rúmil to Aredhel to Mahtan, testing, probing the defence of Ulmo and looking for a foothold, a patch of space from which to start things. But the two holding midfielders, Voronwë and Tar-Ciryatan, were smart to occupy those spaces. Time and time again, Tirion’s advance was rebuffed, and the ball went back to their midfielders, and the dance began anew.

Mahtan, Tirion’s left midfielder, preferred to play through the centre, so to offset this loss of width the left-back Caranthir moved forward to provide attacking options. But in one sequence of play, he was caught too high up the pitch when Mahtan misplaced a pass to Aredhel. Voronwë took possession, scanned the pitch, and found Tar-Minastir making a run behind Caranthir. The Elf from Gondolin sent a long diagonal towards him. Caranthir tried to run back, and Amras closed in on Tar-Minastir. But with his first touch Tar-Minastir sent a cross-field pass to a running Tar-Aldarion on the opposite wing. Easily beating Irimë to the byline, he sent a cross into the box; his grandfather Vëantur, charging from the midfield, beat Amrod and met it with a thundering header for the opener.

The Tirion faithful groaned, while the supporters of the Sea let out a thunderous cheer. Ulmo’s defence was enough to keep even FC Valinor scoreless; surely, a one-goal lead would be enough for them to win.

Finwë, however, was not fazed. He whispered a few words to Aredhel and dropped back closer to the midfield; Tirion returned to the formation they used against Angband.

There were doubts as to the efficacy of Finwë’s strategy among the more tactically astute sections of the crowd. Tirion were already enjoying a considerable possession advantage over the Sea (54-46), so what was he improving by being further away from goal?

It was space. Football was a battle for space: which part of the pitch would you give your opponents? Which part of the pitch is the opposition giving you? Can you create chances from that space?

Aredhel was left alone to battle with Ulmo and Ossë, but now Finwë had a little more space to win headers and play penetrative passes to Aredhel and Mahtan from the midfield. Neither Voronwë nor Tar-Ciryatan could do anything, as he simply outleaped them to headers and outmuscled them on the turn. After Mahtan came close to bagging the equaliser with a stunning volley of a Finwë flick-on (requiring a superb reaction save from Hyarmendacil), Ulmo himself stepped up from the defence to mark Finwë. This turned out to be a mistake—Finwë flicked on another Rúmil cross for Aredhel. The White Lady of the Noldor had too much space to pick her shot, and she sent a peach of a curler past Hyarmendacil. The Sea’s defences were finally breached, and Tirion got their equaliser with a little over half the game left to play.

But Tirion did not press their advantage. After the break, both teams played more conservatively: Caranthir no longer moved forward to join in on the attack, and concentrated on his defensive duties, and Ulmo left Finwë alone in the midfield, concentrating on shutting down Aredhel and Mahtan’s runs from the midfield. Both teams still managed to create chances, but they were long prayers or tame shots easily snuffed by the goalkeepers. Neither team changed gears, seemingly happy with a draw at this point.

The Sea 1-1 Tirion
GOALS:
24, 1-0 Vëantur (Tar-Aldarion)
42, 1-1 Aredhel (Finwë)

Total Shots
12-13
Shots On Target
4-4

YELLOW CARDS:
1-1
SEA: Tar Meneldur
TIR: Amras

------------ W-D-L Pts GD
Nargothrond  1-0-0  3  +3
The Sea      0-1-0  1  0
Tirion       0-1-0  1  0
Minas Tirith 0-0-1  0  -3

W-D-L: win-draw-loss
GD: goal difference

[Nogrod]

Group C @ Doriath


If one would have to name the hottest game of the first round there would be perhaps two or three candidates; perhaps Erebor vs. Wilderland in Group E with the full weight of the importance of the game and the flare of the both attacking sides, or maybe Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth in Group G with two extremely tough teams fighting it out. But the AKM would choose the game between Hithlum and Real Valinor even if one could argue that the two teams are favourites to qualify from their group anyway so it’s not that much a game of death as such.

Real Valinor are the champions from the last season and they have shown in the friendlies that even without Arien they are serious contenders to renew their title. Let’s remind our readers for just one single fact: last season Real Valinor lost to FC Valinor twice with no uncertain terms but went on to claim the championship with some confidence. This year they draw with FC Valinor in the friendlies – so one could say that they are a better team this year than the last year… and they were already champions last season. Go figure that.

Hithlum on the other hand has put in all their financial resources to fight seriously for the Cup this year and their offence with Túrin and Beleg looks the most intimidating – especially with Hador rising to his level in the friendlies (2+0 in two games) and the ever-dangerous Húrin parked in the middle of the offence. With a Balrog and Hador’s sons in the defence it should not be up to their defence either. Although many hold Huor to be a questionmark at the goal as he skipped the last season. But with a man like him you know that even his performance on a bad day would be a great achievement to a lesser one.

And it is clear neither team is prepared to lose a single game – even if some analysts hold Hithlum’s two draws in the friendlies a discouraging omen telling they are not up to the task this year either – while Real Valinor’s beating of Valimar confidently 3-1 is to many a sign of the sheer brilliance of the team. But the difference between the teams would be soon found out.

“The Cave” was full already for the afternoon game as everyone wanted to see the two teams included in the short list of the “most talked” teams of the tournament (add to them AC Beleriand, T-I-G and FC Valinor and there we kind of have it). Tulkas and Hador led their teams to the field showing great respect to each other following the fair play theme Menegroth had created for this year’s tournament. The Breelanders in the audience stood in awe for the nobility and both inner and visible strength radiating from the men of old while the elves recognized their partners of the days gone by with accepting embrace, but with the entrance of the Valar, Maiar and the noblest Noldor everyone just held their breath. The spectators knew they were witnessing something out of ordinary indeed.



The game itself was just as intense and high-quality everyone had hoped for. Both offences created beautiful combinations and chances at scoring but to counter that both defences played superbly forcing the shots from difficult angles allowing minimum reaction time to the strikers. During the first half an hour Real Valinor had probably a little more of the possession but Hithlum had probably an inch better chances at scoring – when Miriel suddenly exploded the stadium with a beautiful cross-run sweeping in Nerdanel’s inch-accurate pass from the air past Huor – leaving him standing in awe to the exact finishing of the great striker.

Many people seem to have forgotten that Nerdanel and Miriel had their dynamic duo already before Arien joined them – and now they showed why they are so feared by the opposite defences all over Arda. That was just fantastic.
After the goal allowed Hithlum put in a new gear and you could see the seriousness of their effort from Túrin’s game – he, and all Hithlum players, were chasing every ball, fighting for every possession to the end – and his eyes, which were shining steel and determination. And the sudden flame of Hithlum forced even a team like Real Valinor to draw back a bit to better contain the massive attack Hithlum was bringing forth.

Real Valinor managed to keep Hithulm at bay most of the time, even quite comfortably at times. Nienna was superb cutting passes into the box while Nahar and Ingwinion took care of Túrin and Beleg – and even Tilion worked hard in the defence running after anyone who was looking dangerous. But the sheer determination and number of chances Hithlum created led to the inevitable result.

Hithlum scored the game even just one minute before the half-time!

Hador gave a pass diagonally backwards from the edge of the box and while the defenders were busy closing any further passing-lines Húrin ran for the ball and booted such a swerving boomer into the upper-left corner of the goal even Tulkas had no chance of picking it.

Whether Hithlum had just exhausted themselves with the dynamic rage of the last fifteen minutes of the first half and never recovered or whether they were too happy to draw or whether it was something else no one will probably ever know. But the second half was just a Real Valinor show.

It was a different game on the second half. Real Valinor was in the driver’s seat commanding both the tempo and where the game was played. Moving the ball quick from player to player exhausted the Hithlum squad who were always running a bit late after it.

So if it was determination that decided the latter part of the first half it was confidence that decided the second half.

Balrog #5 was forced to take a yellow card when Oromë was breaking through into the box with the ball and the giant was just late. From the ensuing free-kick just inches behind the edge of the box Oromë himself made one of the greatest goals of the first round sure to end up in most of the YouTube compilations. He booted a cannon of a shot that swereved around the wall put up by Hithlum and before Huor realised it was not going wide after all it was too late for him to react as the ball went in hitting the post first.

Real Valinor was not finished with claiming the lead once more but continued dominating the field leaving little or no room for any counterplay ti Hithlum – even if they had a few controlled attacks and Túrin’s one fiery shot missed the post only about half a meter. But Real was the team calling the shots now – and it was no wonder they actually scored yet one more time about ten minutes before the end.

This time they just saw the defences open with criss-crossing passes finally leaving Nessa to just move the ball into the empty net from one meter’s distance. And many were just amazed of the energy Tilion had rushing to the last pass – it seemed to be true he flourishes immediately when he’s not just following Arien everywhere.

Sad for team Hithlum but in the last ten minutes of the game Real Valinor was actually closer of making it 4-1 than Hithlum was to cut the lead into 2-3. It had been an unexpectedly uneven game – even if some reporters were nodding their faces knowledgeably with the “what did I say” –look. Happily those few would be soo very wrong in their next predictions that no one cared.

Hithlum 1-3 Real Valinor
on target 5-9
tot shots 14-22
GOALS:
*29, 0-1 Miriel (Nerdanel)
*44, 1-1 Hurin (Hador)
*61, 1-2 Orome
*79, 1-3 Nessa (Tilion)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Hithlum- Arroch, Balrog#5
*RealV- Nienna



If the team Hithlum can be called a kind of an family-affair the same could be said of Doriath as well with Elwë and Melian and then their grandchild Dior with Elwing – and their forefathers and daughter – form the core of the team aided by a few of Elwë’s trusted elves. But talking about quality and family: many missed Beren and Lúthien.

Shire-Bree on the other hand looked more like a mötley crew of vagabonds and strangers walking into the bright lights of the Menegroth Stadium: a wizard, a great white horse, three Nazgûl, a beast, a couple of hobbits and men (of which one didn’t look exactly sporty)…

So when the hometeam took the reins into their hands with their organized play, most of the homeside-fans relaxed and cheered approvingly for a nice evening of football. But not everyone was happy with the seeming grip Doriath had on the game – for Gandalf was tricksy and with the two Nazgûl up front (and that odd but sturdy hobbit Bandobras Took) they were actually able to sneak in chances of scoring every now and then – and even if Doriath held the ball most of the time Shire-Bree did actually produce the better chances. And as the first half went on it became quite evident even to the blindest home-fans: these oddballs were challenging Doriath seriously – and that instead of a walk in the park they faced a serious struggle to win the game.

Towards the end of the first half the Shire Bree was actually calling the shots while the hometeam just tried to keep the ball out from the scoring-distance. It had so turned over that it was the Doriath fans and players who were relieved with the half-time whistle.

But Doriath-team had done some serious soul-searching during the half-time and came to the second period with a totally new energy. They were confident but not over-confident, playing now with a full 100% concentration. And they scored a goal in three minutes with Elwë sliding in a perfect pass by Mablung! And the crowds regained their confidence once again.

And it was obvious the second half was a much better football than the first as now both teams were playing seriously – and to the astonishment of the homecrowds it was an even game indeed. At times Doriath was able to press the game down to the Shire-Bree side but then on another the quests took the initiative and forced the game to the other end.

But the farther the clock ticked the more careful or unrisky game Doriath started to play to save their lead – and the more they left room for Shire-Bree to manouver. With Khamûl hitting the post less than ten minutes before the end the homeside fans went on gnawing their fingernails.
From the next attack Elwing managed to cut the releasing pass by Gandalf to Nazgûl #6 and Melian took care of heading the ensuing corner far away to the midfield.

On the next Elwing jumped in front of the crossing by Bandobras and Nimloth swept the ball away from Ferny’s feet from the throw-in.

Five minutes before the full-time Daeron slided late on Butterbur’s ankle giving Shire-Bree a free kick.

All three Nazgûl and Gandalf gathered around the ball at the 35 meters the kick would be given while Dior was organising the defences in to a wall where both Gildor and Shadowfax were trying to fit in.

Finally the referee blew his whistle and all the three Nazgûl and Gandalf rushed forwards at the same time. The Nazgûl were faster and while Khamûl was coming straigth towards the wall of defenders (and Shadowfax and Gildor who were pushing the defenders aways as hard as they could), Nazgûl #6 was rushing past the wall from left and #4 from right.

There was a moment of confusion and whilst most defenders tried to stand the center to stop Khamûl, Shadowfax and Gildor, Galadhon and Nellas fell to the sides to shadow the Nazgûls rushing forwards from the sides - and with Gandalf’s kick finally in the air and flying towards left and Nazgûl #6 Daeron also left his place from the edge of the wall to pursue the beast.

And there was the trick! Nazgûl #6 had no intention to possess the ball or put it forwards – even if Shadowfax, Khamûl and Gildor were making leaps forwards – and made Melian, Elwë and other defenders to fall in with them effectively breaking the defensive wall. But the Nazgûl just played it back diagonally to Gandalf who had meanwhile ran forwards and a little right to gain a free line to shoot – and with the combination of Dior concentrating on the other end of the goal and the power of Gandalf’s shot the ball went into the net just beside the right post before Dior had a chance to even try and stop it.

The Shire-Bree fans were exploding with righteous-joy while the homecrowds were silenced for good. It was four minutes of the game left and the game was even.

And it ended that way even if both teams made a decent try to change it at the last minutes – but it was clear that both teams were afraid of losing more they were keen in winning the game at the last minutes.

So Shire-Bree had forced the hostsinto a draw and no one could say the result was unfair.


Doriath 1-1 ShireBree United
on target 3-5
tot shots 9-12
GOALS:
*48, 1-0 Elwe (Mablung)
*86, 1-1 Gandalf (Nazgul #6)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Doriath-
*SBUnt- Ferny, Khamul

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Stadium on the Rock
Inter Beleriand vs Dwarves United

Banners of white, gold, and red, the colours of the royal house of Gondolin, flew upon the walls of the Stadium on the Rock, commemorating the return of the city’s ruler. Despite the fact that Gondolin’s match wouldn’t take place until evening, thousands of locals flocked to the stadium to watch Turgon play for Inter Beleriand. Their king was a wise ruler and a talented player, they said to each other. It’s just that his philosophy didn’t mesh well with the team’s style. They would be glad to support him—if he’s not playing against the home team, of course.

Dwarves United players entered the pitch to much applause. Aulë was still the Vala most beloved of the Noldor, and Galadriel, Celebrimbor, and Azaghâl were respected names. Then the Inter Beleriand players walked out of the tunnel, and the stadium exploded with cheers. And lastly, with the build-up of a returning hero, Turgon’s name was announced over the speakers, and the crowd replied with a roar that reverberated throughout the city.



Turgon was fortunate that Inter dominated possession for the first few minutes of the game, so moved was he by the home crowd’s warm reception that he looked a bit out of it at the beginning. Dwarves United had more midfielders (3 vs Inter’s 2), and their trio of Gimli, Fíli, and Kíli were technically better than Hunthor and Forweg, but they preferred to play on the break, whereas Inter felt the need to take control of tie so that they could get a leg up over their potential qualification rivals Gondolin. Beren moved inside from the left to be a third central midfielder, and Lúthien took up a more advanced position, turning Inter into a 3-4-1-2 when in possession. Luckily, their side of the pitch had the less attacking full-back Durin, meaning the only player of concern was right midfielder Gamil Zirak. On the other wing, Haleth played a more disciplined role, keeping an eye on Celebrimbror’s movement and often leaving right-back Baragund to deal with Telchar’s forward runs.

The first half ended with little incident. Dwarf U’s defence shut down all possible avenues of Inter’s attack, and Inter could not commit to an all-out attack due to fear of Dwarf U’s counterattacks. Legolas clearly received instructions to ignore link-up play—he latched on to passes from the defence and attacked Inter’s defence all alone. For most parts, Gorlim and Haldad limited his chances, but his pace was enough to give them fits. Their best chance of the half came from a sublime Aulë long ball behind Inter’s defence. Legolas outpaced the centre-backs and rounded Turgon. It took Baragund’s impressive goal-line clearance to keep Inter from going into the break a goal behind.

The second half began with another Aulë interception and long pass, another Legolas solo run, and another nervy defensive stop from Inter. Haldad got a leg in Legolas’s on-target shot, sending it out of bounds and giving Dwarf U a corner. Gamil Zirak took the corner kick, and Aulë met it at the near post to with a powerful header towards the top corner. Turgon leapt as high as he could and got a finger in to nudge it towards the crossbar. The crowd applauded their king’s effort wildly.

After the first few minutes, the game settled down and Inter slowly imposed their control on the game. Fingon shuttled between attack and midfield, giving Inter four passing options in the centre of the pitch and providing more creative outlets (Beren had been too easily shut down by the sons of Dís.) In the sixty-fifth minute, Beren, Lúthien, and Fingon formed a triangle down Dwarf U’s left flank, passing their way through Kíli, Gamil Zirak, and Durin. Beren got to the byline and cut the ball back for Maedhros. Aulë had been paying too much attention to the proceedings at the left flank that he failed to track Maedhros’s movement. The eldest son of Fëanor rounded Azaghâl and fired low past Galadriel for the lead.

After a goal Inter Beleriand were a little more relaxed. They could now start playing to their strengths, returning to their preferred counterattacking style, knowing that Dwarves United would be forced to commit more players forward. Barely two minutes after the opener Hunthor cleared a Dwarf U corner and Beren took the ball in stride and outsprinted Fíli. Kíli, Azaghâl, and Durin were all that stood between Beren and Galadriel, but the latter two were occupied by Maedhros and Lúthien’s runs. Beren jinked past Kíli, who fell to the ground trying to keep up with him. He reached out for Beren’s leg to trip him, and the referee rushed towards him, red card in hand, for denying a clear goalscoring opportunity. Kíli apologised to Beren and shook his hand before leaving the pitch.

Dwarves United player were obviously deflated after Kíli’s sending off. They were a man down and a goal down, and the crowds were firmly behind Inter. In the seventy-sixth minute, Haleth took on Gamil Zirak then surprised Celebrimbor by cutting inside on his weaker left foot. He fired a clumsly looping cross that looked to sail wide, but Fingon, who easily outleapt Azaghâl, managed to nudge it goalward towards the far corner, just out of Galadriel’s reach. The people at the stadium were silent for a beat, but then cheered wildly at the awkward-looking goal. Now Dwarf U was in a deep pickle: two goals behind and a man down. They elected to concede the field to Inter, conserving their energy for the next two matches. Inter silently accepted Dwarf U’s surrender and took their foot off the pedal for the remainder of the match.

Inter Beleriand 2-0 Dwarves United
GOALS:
65, 1-0 Maedhros (Beren)
76, 2-0 Fingon (Haleth)

Total Shots:
11-14
Shots On Target
5-5

YELLOW CARDS:
2-0
INB: Baragund, Forweg
DWU: -

RED CARDS:
DWU: Kíli (67, straight red)

AC Beleriand vs Gondolin

And now, the main event. AC Beleriand managed to bring a strong contingent into the hidden city, and they easily scooped up all the thirty-thousand tickets allocated for the away side. And of the ten thousand tickets for the neutral, they hoped that the Inter supporters would also support their fellow Beleriand team, although Turgon’s influence might tilt them towards supporting the home team instead. There was, however, nothing they could do against the forty-five thousand-strong home crowd. They were banging drums and singing ‘Gondolin, pride of the Noldor,’ at the top of their lungs.



The game soon started, and the home team fed on the crowd’s energy. They also remembered last year’s humiliating defeat. Salgant, especially, was like a different player—he was more judicious in his tackling, keener to stay on his feet than to launch into reckless two-footed slide tackles, but he remained dogged in chasing his mark around the pitch—last year it was Beren; this time it was the Fiery Boot himself, Fëanor.

The first half was a disjointed affair, a battle of tempo. AC Beleriand wanted to slow the game down, play the ball on the floor and gradually work it up the pitch towards their attacking four, whereas Gondolin played a very direct game and concentrated on getting the ball into the box as quickly as possible. Both teams had a decent number of chances, but none of them were clear ones. Duilin and Maeglin frustrated Ulrad and Denethor, keeping them from playing easy passes towards Fëanor and the wide players. On the other side, AC Bel defenders Imlach and Rochallor bracketed Gondolin’s forwards well, and full-backs Fingolfin and Balrog #4 checked the runs of Gondolin wingers Idril and Elemmakil.

Towards the end of the first half, AC Beleriand abandoned their patient build-up play and started launching long balls towards Gondolin’s box, disorienting the home team’s back line. Fëanor had the best chance of the half—he slipped Salgant’s mark and took a long pass from Imlach. He jinked past Penlod and Aranwë, but Rog snuffed his side-footed shot easily.

AC Beleriand finally scored the opener three minutes after the restart. With a burst of pace, Denethor managed to evade Maeglin’s marking long enough to fire a long diagonal to the right of Gondolin’s box. Angrod and Eöl dashed past their markers towards the ball, while Fëanor made a run towards the penalty area to draw Salgant and Penlod away. The Dark Elf took the ball with top of his foot, making it bounce up, and then launched himself into an overhead kick towards the top-left corner of the goal. The AC Beleriand supporters stood up and roared, while the neutral fans applauded Eöl’s effort. They have taken the lead in impressive fashion.

Gondolin pushed forward with renewed ferocity, but they were unable to make headway against AC Bel’s defence. More often than not, they had to get back quickly on defence after an attacking attempt; as soon as they lost possession, AC Bel played the ball forward quickly against Gondolin’s disorganised defence. During one such sequence, AC Bel gained a four-on-five opportunity, pitting their front four against Gondolin’s back four and Salgant. Aegnor managed to gain a few metres of space in the marking confusion and, after taking Eöl’s backheel pass, shot a fierce drive from fifteen metres out. Rog managed to make a stop; he then leapt after the rebound ahead of a sliding Fëanor. Scanning the field as he stood up, he threw a long overarm pass towards Duilin at the edge of the box, and the Gondolin midfielder sprinted past Denethor and Ulrad. Imlach stepped up to challenge him, but by then Duilin had already spotted Maeglin’s run from the right wing. He slid in a through ball past Imlach and Rochallor, and Maeglin needed just the simplest of tap-ins to put the ball past Marach.

There was less than half an hour left to play, and the mood at the stadium was tense. AC Beleriand had an advantage in possession, but Gondolin’s energy, fuelled by their home crowd, allowed them to play last year’s semifinalists almost evenly. Who will take control of this tie and take all three points?

After a brief huddle that took place while Gondolin celebrated their goal, Fëanor moved higher up the pitch to become a second centre forward, turning AC Bel into a 4-2-2-2 (Angrod and Aegnor were too far ahead of Ulrad and Denethor for them to be a bank of four.) The two wide midfielders were also instructed to send crosses into the box—high crosses when Fëanor was matched against Aranwë, low ones when their captain was marked by the taller Penlod. Twelve minutes before full time, AC Bel’s tactic paid off; Angrod crossed low for Fëanor, and the Fiery Boot easily exploited his quickness advantage to dribble past Penlod. With only the goalkeeper to beat, he curled his shot past Rog for the lead.

Gondolin pressed relentlessly for an equaliser, but, with Fëanor, Angrod, and Aegnor joining Ulrad and Denethor in midfield, AC Bel kept the ball successfully and killed the tie. The home team, however, didn’t surrender until the final whistle, and their supporters appreciated their effort. At least they managed to score a goal against a top defence, and, with their toughest fixture out of the way, they still have a chance to advance.

AC Beleriand 2-1 Gondolin
GOALS:
48, 1-0 Eöl (Denethor)
63, 1-1 Maeglin (Duilin)
78, 2-1 Fëanor (Angrod)

Total Shots:
16-12
Shots On Target:
7-6

YELLOW CARDS:
2-2
ACB: Eöl, Imlach
GDN: Penlod, Salgant

--------------- W-D-L Pts GD
Inter Beleriand 1-0-0  3  +2
AC Beleriand    1-0-0  3  +1
Gondolin        0-0-1  0  -1
Dwarves United  0-0-1  0  -2

W-D-L: win-draw-loss
GD: goal difference

[the phantom]

A Look at Phantasy Competitions
Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

As always there are quite a few folks in Middle-Earth entered in Phantasy Leagues based around this year’s Arda Cup. Of course the rules are slightly different—e.g. in many of the Orc-run leagues yellow cards are actually worth positive points, and Numenorean leagues going a game without being caught flopping or whining is worth a point. But overall the scoring mechanics are similar. So here’s a bit of blanket advice when it comes to picking your squad—and we’ll start with the two most important words.

Matchups matter.

Take a look at the teams your players are going up against. Are you picking a forward or midfielder that is about to battle a highly ranked defense like FC Valinor, Real Valinor, T-I-G, etc.? Then just know that it’s a risky play. Are you choosing a defender that’s about to be attacked by Hithlum, AC Beleriand, Nargothrond, etc.? Then don’t bet on getting points for a shutout. You can’t just pick good players—the opposition is every bit as important a consideration.

Also, you may want to see if you have players on your team that are set to face off against each other. Do you have an offensive player going up against a defender? Well then, it’ll be pretty tough to gain good points from both players.

And finally- what to do about a point train? In other words, if someone is scoring well, do you trade for them and hope they’ll keep going, or stay away because they’re due to fall off? Well honestly that’s a tricky question, but one thing to keep in mind—is that player a frequent strong performer? If a player that doesn’t typically score well goes on a binge, more likely than not they will fall off, whereas if a solid player hasn’t scored well perhaps they're due for a good game. Of course there are exceptions to every rule, but it’s something to keep in mind nonetheless.

Anyway, that’s just a bit of advice for you Phantasy players out there. Here’s hoping you score well!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Group Tables:



Power Rank:

The Power Rank shall return in the next issue of ArdaCup.com Stats Report.


Top Individual Performers:

GOALS + ASSISTS

2+1
Curufin (FC Valinor)

2+0
Scatha (Wilderland)
Glaurung (Nargothrond)

1+1
Irmo (Valimar)
Smaug (Erebor)

0+2
Nazgûl #3 (Wilderland)
Haldir (Anduin)

GOALKEEPING

1. 100% – 5/5 – Turgon (Inter Beleriand)
2. 100% – 4/4 – ShastaWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
3. 100% – 4/4 – Amroth (Anduin)
4. 100% – 4/4 – Silent Watcher (Mordor)
5. 100% – 4/4 – Orodreth (Nargothrond)
6. 100% – 3/3 – Manwë (Valimar)
7. 100% – 3/3 – Ungoliant (Anfauglith)
8. 100% – 1/1 – Huan (FC Valinor)

[Boromir88]

TTN's Stars (Round 1)
-Boro88

One thing we wanted to add to this year's Arda Cup is the "Star Performances." AKM launced their own "AKM Stars", but they've dropped the concept the past couple years. TTN wanted to add something noticeably different to their phantasy coverage this year, so we've come up with a revised "Stars" concept, and a different methodology from AKM's to highlight the best individual performances every round.

*Disclaimer: TTN's Stars are completely separate from the "star players" when picking phantasy players. This is simply our way of highlighting the top performances from each round. So, if TTN gives One Star to Tar Atanamir, that does not mean Tar Atanamir costs one "*" on your phantasy teams now.


Now here's how TTN has decided to award their stars. We had our field of reporters attending every match in every group and they picked the best players nominating from 2 to 4 for consideration in each match.

We obviously can't award every FW who scored a goal with stars, or every GK who saved 3/3...etc. So our panel deliberated, making cases for why so-and-so should be awarded a star (or why someone should be dropped off the list for this round) and how many stars someone should be awarded. Here is the system for this year.

Top Game performers "One Star" (5 at each position)

Top position performers "Two Star" (2 at each position)

Best Round Performance "Three Star" (One player, position doesn't matter)

Sometimes just scoring a goal or a couple assists isn't going to be good enough when stacked up to other players, so we had to take into account several different factors in coming to the final decisions. Factors included: strength of opponent, strength of victory, impact on the game (a MF scoring a game winning goal with under 10 minutes left is going to carry more weight than a MF scoring a single-goal in a 4-0 blowout for example).

We won't explain every choice made by the panel, but we will try to explain the choices that were the most contentious and debated.

ONE STAR

Goalies
Marach (AC Beleriand)
Ungoliant (Angfauglith)
ShastaWolf (TIG)
Amroth (Anduin)
Silent Watcher (Mordor)

The goalies were pretty much easily agreed on. Manwe was the one left off during the vetting process, because despite saving 3/3, our experts agreed it was against a weak opponent (The Barrow-downs) and other players for Valimar (namely Irmo) had a larger impact on the game.

Defenders
Maglor (FC Valinor)
Barahir (Nargothrond)
Tilion (Real Valinor)
Alatar (Barad-Dur)
Aragorn (Eriador)

A shutout plus an assist from a defender pretty much assured you of catching our attention and thus being awarded with at least one star (Maglor and Barahir). The debate came in when trying to decide if a defender who got the shutout has more impact than a defender who gave up 1 goal, but also contributed with an assist, in most cases we sided with the latter.

Real Valinor allowing only 1-goal against the deadly Hithlum attack, is worthy of notice, and then adding Tilion's key assist in the game it was a no-brainer. The other two were a little more hotly contested, but in the end Alatar's assist in a 1-1 draw was a big result in the game against Gondor. And Aragorn's assist in the 2-1 victory against the Misty Mountains had more impact than Luthien shutting down the pathetic Dwarve's United attack, or the Balrogs from Angfauglith shutting down the equally as bad Imladris attack.

Mid-fielders
Turambar (Gondor)
Nessa (Real Valinor)
Glorfindel (Eriador)
Nazgul #3 (Wilderland)
Nazgul #2 (Mordor)

The toughest choice here was 3 players (Turambar, Glorfindel, and SallyWight) battling it out for essentially 2 spots. Glorfindel's game-winner in the 87th minute held the biggest impact on the game. Where case for SallyWight was stronger opponent and stronger victory. But looking at other TIG performers (Shastawolf and NilpWolf), not that SallyWight's goal had no impact on the game, but just not as large of an impact as those two, nor as large as Glorfindel's game winner. Turambar's goal in the 1-1 draw vs. Barad-dur was also key. Without Turambar's performance, Gondor loses that game.

Forwards
Smaug (Erebor)
Earendil (Havens)
Feanor (AC Belerind)
Ecthelion (Angfauglith)
Ar Pharazon (Armenelos)

Ar Pharazon and Feanor both had late game winners in wins over their opponents. Ecthelion scored the only goal in a crucial result against Imladris. We decided to give the last One Star FW spot to Earendil (Smaug was automatic with its 1+1) because despite Armenelos' staunch guarding and gameplan to try to stop Earendil, they still couldn't and The Havens had Armenelos on the ropes for a significant portion of the game.

TWO STAR

Goalies
Turgon (Inter Beleriand)
Tar Atanamir (Armenelos)

Turgon's 5/5 was the top goalie performance of the round. Tar Atanamir's 5/6 we valued as next best (even over the other goalies who got shut outs) because he did it against a quality offense and the saves were crucial in limiting Earendil to just 1 goal.

Defenders
Fram (Anduin)
NilpWolf (TIG)

Mid-fielders

Irmo (Valimar)
Haldir (Anduin)

Both were the key factors in their team's offense. Both teams had 2-0 victories, and both contributed to each of their teams' goals.

Forwards

Scatha (Wilderland)
Glaurung (Nargothrond)

2 goals each from 2 dragons, they had the top performances amongst the forwards in Round 1.

THREE STAR

The single best performance in Round 1 then goes to...

Curufin, FW for FC Valinor.

Most might say this is not surprising, but it was one of the most contentious debates for our panel in Round 1. Whether to say Curufin had the best performance or Nilpwolf. The wolf's shutout of Angband (the result that probably shocked TTN the most) plus contributing with a goal. Where Curufin's evisceration of Isengard should not have shocked anyone. Still Curufun won out, I mean he should have had a hat-trick and scored 2 goals in a matter of mere minutes which had the game over by half-time for FC Valinor. Performances like Curufin's are the best, no matter the opponent.

[Nogrod]

Group A

First games:
Armenelos vs. The Havens 2-1
Barrow-Downs vs. Valimar 0-2

The Havens vs The Barrow-Downs

Group A is a threeway game and by beating The Havens Armenelos has taken a huge step towards qualification. So it is the Havens’ turn to take the must win over the Barrow-Downs for if they fail in it they can kiss their chances of qualifying good-bye. Now it should be self-evident they will do it but for the Barrow-Wight and Bombadil.

The AKM joins the group of football fans who question the existence of a B-D team as long as it is composed mainly of fictional entities whose only merit is their capability of making lousy jokes and behaving badly. And we hope the AFA would come up with a decent solution of giving the slot to a proper Arda-team the next season.

That said the AKM thinks there is nothing to stop the Havens from winning the game unless Bombadill is awake and willing to play (which we actually hope for fairness-sake he isn’t). For unlike with Valimar there are no Valier to stop him if he suddenly decides to play…

The Havens is actually a pretty tough team and the AKM would see them fighting neck to neck with Valimar for the spot in the qualification. Drawing in the friendlies with this year’s wild card team Inter Beleriand 3-3 and losing to the T-I-G only 1-2 makes them a team one should consider seriously as one to qualify.

If nothing unexpected happens the last round game between The Havens and Valimar will be a real thriller! But before that can take place Havens needs to beat the Barrow-Downs, which the AKM predicts they will.

The AKM predicts: The Havens wins 3-1


Armenelos vs Valimar

Armenelos vs. Valimar will be the hair-rising game of this round. Just think of the historical burden it carries with it and behold! And it will be a very hard one to predict as well.

Now both teams belong to the founding teams of the Arda Cup – and to the first teams to play football in the first place – and still belong to the top ten of the tournament, in the general meaning of the term. Neither though impressed the experts with their friendlies, but yet they both took pretty confident victories from the first round of the group-phase.

To spell that out let’s see their games this year. Armenelos draw 3-3 with the top-quality offence-machine Nargothrond and lost to the serious contenders for the whole Cup AC Beleriand 1-2. Then on the first round of group-play they beat the decently tough team of the Havens 2-1.

Meanwhile Valimar lost to Ulmo’s serious contender-team The Sea 0-1 and got beaten by the flashing Real Valinor 1-3 only to show they still were no pushovers by beating the the Barrow-Downs confidently 2-0.

So looking at the earlier results you might think Armenelos being the slight favourites – and that is the decent deduction. But with team Valimar and Manwê, Namö and Irmö playing nothing is that clear-cut or simple.

Probably one of the toughest games to predict on this round…

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 or Armenelos wins 2-1 (in the situation Arien gets wild Valimar has chances of winning the game, not otherwise)


Group B

First games:
Inter Beleriand vs. Dwarves United 2-1
AC Beleriand vs. Gondolin 2-1

AC Beleriand vs Inter Beleriand

The two Beleriand-teams make it out and while the AC is the obvious big brother when it comes to the success in the footballing-fields Inter seems to have built a very competitive team for this year to challenge their kin and friends.

Now that doesn’t mean AC Beleriand wouldn’t be the favourites to win the game and like last year, leave Inter to fight for the qualification with Gondolin (a fight they lost last season). But Inter did win Doriath and played even with The Havens in the friendlies and then managed the hurdle called the Dwarves United at the first round whose defence many teams fear by scoring two goals.

But looking at the AC Beleriand’s track record & the list of their players brings anyone wishing to see an even game back to the stands: AC Beleriand beat both Armenelos and Anfaughlith 2-1 in the friendlies – like they did with Gondolin on the first round of the group phase.

Long story short: everyone expects AC Beleriand to qualify, with decent reasons, and so the other three teams would only fight it out between themselves for the second position. Inter has beaten Dwarves United and have reason to be content – but as it is possible they need to go on counting goals made and allowed (if they end up in a draw with Gondolin and Dwarves United doesn’t make surprises) so they will be playing defensive trying to contain AC Beleriand -to AC Beleriand a win will do.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins again 2-1 (or 1-0)


Dwarves United vs Gondolin

Gondolin just needs to win this game against Dwarves United. There is no other way to qualify. Now you might ask why we don’t say Dwarves United needs to win this game? Well they lost already to Inter Beleriand and their chances are pretty low indeed while Gondolin “only” lost to AC Beleriand which is most probably going to qualify anyway.

But that doesn’t mean Dwarves Utd. would be giving up because of that. On the contrary. The AKM thinks Dwarves United will be the pain in the – well you know where – for every other team of this group with it’s tough defences and only teams that can really attack can actually walk over them. AC Beleriand seems to have what it takes to do that – and Inter did that already – so now all the pressure is on Gondolin to show they have it as well… And that is the trick of the game.

So the question becomes, whether Gondolin is able to break those defences for good or not. The good news are that they were able to beat tough-defending Arnor last year 4-0 – the bad news are that the architect and hero of that game for Gondolin Gothmog is no longer playing for them.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or Gondolin wins 1-0)


Group C

First games:
Hithlum vs. Real Valinor 1-3
Doriath vs. Shire-Bree United 1-1


Hithlum vs Shire-Bree United

Hithlum faces a “must-win” and Gandalf would be just too happy to deny it from them as the leading player of the underdogs and the team everyone thought would have no chance standing up against the greater teams of the group. Now their draw with the hosts Doriath has changed the mood somewhat and instead of a walk in the park everyone looks forwards to a fighting team Shire-Bree making it hard for Hithlum.

That said, it is clear Hithlum has the quality and stamina Shire-Bree lacks, even if they have proved themselves able to put up a fight. Gandalf, the three Nazgûls and Shadowfax are quality players and able to challenge the human heroes of team Hithlum (even if the Nazgûl were before the rings far lesser breed of kings than the Hithlum-heroes are). But the rest of the team just isn’t able to carry the day for them. Now there have been somewhat justified concerns about the narrowness of Hithlum’s talent as well – but that, the AKM thinks – is relevant only when we start comparing their eighth or ninth toughest player to those of the Real or FC Valimar or AC Beleriand… and not to these Fernys and Butterburs.

Just remembering their games this year might help put things into perspective. In the friendlies Hithlum draw with both Angband (tough team) and Gondolin (pretty tough team) and then lost round 1 game to Real Valinor (super-tough team). Shire-Bree has won the Barrow-Downs (crap team) and drawn with Anduin (decent team) and then on the first round with Doriath (decent / decent minus -team).

Also none of the teams Shire-Bree has met thus far this year has had a real killer-offence. But Hithlum has that. How will their defence handle it is a question worth asking.

So even if there is this nice idea the underdogs could shake the order of the world the AKM sees Hithlum being overall at such a different level that they will claim their first win of the year – and with the self-confidence thus boosted, who knows how far they will go?

The AKM predicts: Hithlum wins 3-1


Doriath vs Real Valinor

There is one clear conclusion to be made from the first round of Group C: Real Valinor is a plain marvellous team and anyone meeting them will have tough times. With Arien gone there seems to be a half-dozen players ready to fill in to score. So if the defence takes one out, another will make the goal. Bad news to any phantasy-players as it is hard to pick the right one from there, but great news for the team.

After the confident victory over Hithlum it is hard to see Real Valinor challenged for real by any other team of this group unless they just relax too much – which doesn’t sound like a plausible idea regarding the personalities playing for the team – and Tulkas as the one calling the shots in the end.

Doriath craves for a win after the disappointing draw with the Shire-Bree and they have the support of the home-crowds, but they just lack quality to pull out one from this game. And it might be added that the draw they played with the Shire-Bree was only partly following from the goodness of the S-B team – and there was also some real lack of flair and excellence in Doriath’s game – and it looks like the home team will not qulify from this group.

Anyway, this is one of the round’s most clear games.

The AKM predicts: Real Valinor wins 2-0 (3-1)


Group D

First games:
Isengard vs. FC Valinor 0-4
Barad-Dûr vs. Gondor 1-1

Barad-Dur vs Isengard

With Barad-Dûr and Gondor drawing their first round match it is then time for Isengard to make their claim for the other qulification-position in this group meeting Barad-Dûr. But unless FC Valinor means to beat the other two teams with such ugly numbers the Isengard-start wasn’t the best one. And lets face it: who would bet on Saruman against Sauron?

One could make a hypothetical case for Isengard by looking at the friendlies and stating that they had a caliber tougher opponents and only lost decentlyish (losing only 1-2 to Wilderland is actually prettu good for a weaker team) whereas Barad-Dûr didn’t convince in their own friendlies (a 0-0 draw with Arnor isn’t the best possible result from a team that aspires to go far in this tournament).

But still. Even if Barad-Dûr isn’t exactly the favourites to go far in the tournament Isengard seems to have little or nothing to throw against their reasonably strong defence.

The AKM predicts: Barad-Dür wins 2-0 (or possibly 2-1)


Gondor vs FC Valinor

The result of the game depends mostly on the attitude of FC Valinor. If they want to play with full strength and give their best there is probably nothing Gondor could mount against them and the game will end something like 6-0.

But that is not probable. FC Valinor got venting some of the steam out making the confident win over Isengard and can now either get some rest from pressures or practise their gameplans – and as Curufin has gotten his confidence back it seems he has nothing to especially show-off this time.

So the only possibility this might turn out an interesting game is if FC Valinor has a total attitude problem and think they can just walk with half-pace, score a few goals and the go home looking for the qualifiers. If that happens, Gondor’s organized team-play might frustrate them and then who knows with a lucky breakthrough by Anarion or Eldacar?

Then again, looking at the roster of FC Valinor it’s hard to see them as a team who would come to the pitch half-heartedly. But it is hard to see them playing with full-effort the whole 90 minutes either. THE script they probably wish to execute is making a few goals and then sitting back making sure the game is won.

Like the other game in this group, this looks like pretty much settled already as to who wins it, but with what kind of a score?

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor’s game-plan holds and they win 3-1 (2-0)


Group E

First games:
Eriador vs. Misty Mountains 2-1
Erebor vs. Wilderland 3-3

MistyMts vs Wilderland

After their pretty mediocre show at the friendlies Misty Mountains made a fresh performance in their game against Eriador and thus made themselves a bit more serious contender for the qualification. But fighting for the second qualification spot against both Erebor and Wilderland looks like a bit too tough a project for them.

Misty Mountains looks actually like a b-class version of the two other teams of the group. They all like to play rough and aggressive and outscore their opponents but whereas both Erebor and Wilderland have quality to actually pull that off Misty Monutains just falls short of it.

Wilderland needs the three points from here and it needs them bad. But the problem is that Misty Mountains defences would look like suited into denying them. Just think of the following: Gwaihir taking off the Nazgûl, Caradhras blocking the slow and unwinged Scatha, Watcher keeping it’s eye on Thranduil and William just blocking the first elves with its size.

But how many of you would betting on that scenario to work in the end – especially as Imin already showed he can score in the first game?

On the other end the ents should be able to hold Azog and Narvi at bay but Durin’s Bane will be a real problem – and it will mean the Misty Mountains will score. But Thranduil and the elves will still outscore Misty Mountains.

The AKM predicts: Wilderland wins 3-1 (3-2)


Erebor vs Eriador

Looking at the last year and the teams in paper this year it would seem Eriador is one of the top contenders to reach the final stages of the tournament once again this year. But somehow the AKM has been – and is – sceptical about their success unless they really show how they play first. If they clear this group with clean stats then yes, the AKM will give them a thumbs up, but before that we will be quite reserved indeed.

And the reason is simple: they haven’t impressed us yet.

Yes, it is not their style to beat the opposing team 6-0 if 1-0 is enough. And yes they can score when they wish to (like they beat the B-D 3-0 in the friendlies – or Gondolin 3-1 last year). But this year they have only won Anduin (decent team) 1-0 and the B-D (crap) 3-0 – and they didn’t impress with their win 2-1 over Misty Mountains on the first round even if you could say the Misty Mts. is a better team some people might think.

If one wishes to think about Eriador’s chances in this tournament they’d need to produce results against teams like Real or FC Valinor, or AC Beleriend, or the T-I-G, or… and there is nothing to show they are able to do that. And the AKM remains sceptical unless they play one tough game and show what they are made of this year.

That said Erebor is kind of a tough opponent to Eriador. The last year’s fourth is a considerable team even if most analysts agree it has weakened from the last year – and losing Gwaihir and Thranduil is exactly that, weakening of the team. Also, the last year they beat Wilderland in the group phase but this year they draw the game. ‘nuff said.

But still, their offence will finally give a preliminary test to Eriador’s overpaid defences (the AKM still thinks the signing of Aragorn and Arwen with 10 million each was a a bad move sportswise even if it felt nice to Elrond).

A lot will depend on how Smaug will fare against the Eriador defences – and in the last instance against Elrond. Nazgûl #7 will have no frightening effect whatsoever against Eriador’s defences and both Bolg and Bard will have hard times trying to outwit Gil-Galad, Aragorn, Arwen and Asfaloth.

But the real question is how confidently Glorfindel and Isildur can play against the eagles – and Beorn at the goal – and do Arveleg and NogWight have what it takes to support them when needed…

The AKM predicts after a lot of to and fro: Eriador wins 2-1 (3-2)


Group F

First games:
Minas Tirith vs. Nargothrond 0-3
The Sea vs. Tirion 1-1


Minas Tirith vs Tirion

Minas Tirith was facing an uphill battle in this group to begin with and then losing to Nargothrond 0-3 didn’t exactly make their situation any easier. To put it bluntly they basically have to beat both The Sea and Tirion to qualify now. And after they lose to Tirion on this coming round it is then clear they will not be qualifying.

Tirion in turn seems to have the bad karma to be always put in a group that has some relatively tough competition. But after their ill luck of being in the same group with both Real and FC Valinor and Armenelos last year they can consider this group a piece of cake – and they would truly deserve to qualify this year. And they have it in their own hands. Now they just have to pick that cake-piece.

But that may also require beating Minas Tirith with as big numbers Nargothrond did it just to be on the safe side – so Tirion will not go for this game intending only to win. They intend to win big.

Will they do that?

Drawing with The Sea gave them the keys. Now they may have some problems with really strong defences like Angband (they drew 1-1 in the friendlies) but Minas Tirith has nothing of the sort Angband has to offer. Then again, if they could score two goals behind Gondolin, scoring at least that much should be no problem against Minas Tirith.

The AKM predicts: Tirion wins 2-0 (3-0)


Nargothrond vs The Sea

Now the Sea might just have a problem. Keeping the scores low and accepting draws might just mean they are going to stay in the group phase with the offensive powerhouse Nargothrond and a very effective Tirion team there to beat the fourth team of the group with bigger numbers the Sea will…

So with a draw with Tirion already under their belt it probably has dawned to Ulmo they can’t afford to draw with Nargothrond any more – or then they need to put up some real fireworks against Minas Tirith.

But Nargothrond will have none of that. They count on their offensive power and will give The Sea a run for their money. And so it will be a real thriller indeed! One of the best defences against one of the toughest offences fight it out – and the proze for the winner is nothing less but a pretty good chances of qualifying (for Nargothrond it would actually be a safe qualification if they win).

For the stat-freaks there is an intereting piece of information: while Nargothrond has made eight goals in their three games this year (two friendlies and one group-game) The Sea has meanwhile only given up one. The opposite numbers are interesting as well: Nargothrond has allowed four goals while The Sea has scored two.

One of the hardest to predict this round…

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or Nargothrond wins 1-0)


Group G

First games:
Anfaughlith vs. Imladris 1-0
Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth 0-2

Imladris vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth

Tol-In-Gaurhoth made quite a spectacular show of their skills and stamina in their first game against Angband – with the restrictions on how many werewolves there can be eased and with a couple of sharp sign-ins they have reached back to the level they used to play years ago. And that spells trouble for Imladris.

If the T-I-G doesn’t win the game with at least two-goal difference the AKM thinks they’re showing a soft spot somewhere – or then they will just be guilty of playing it lazy.

Now that is a possibility – that the werewolves just walk around and hit one ball in – or if Imladris should score by chance before them – they get enraged and miss their chance for the clear sheet. But that is only a possibility – and too probable one.

On the other hand, with a win the werewolf-pack has a chance to nail their qualification in this game and they’d probably wish to do that and – knowing that the number two of this group will most probably meet AC Beleriand in the first qualification round – they are not that crazy to try their luck if they can avoid such an opponent in their first qualification-game.

So the T-I-G has the team, the skills, the toughness and the reason to beat Imladris – and that is exactly what they are going to do.

The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 3-0


Angband vs Anfauglith

Now the game between Angband and Anfaughlith is a tougher one. Melkor and Ungoliant have a mutual history – and they have fought it out before. If Melkor’s Angband would stand against Sauron’s Barad Dûr few would wish to bet on the latter, but Ungoliant’s Anfaughlith is just a few levels tougher a team. And Ungoliant has never been Melkor’s minion…

Looking at the friendlies you could say both had tough opponents. Anband managed to draw with both Hithlum (maybe not so toug a team afterall?) and Tirion (a good team but needs to fight for qualification), whereas Anfaughlith lost narrowly 1-2 against both AC Beleriand (one of the toughest this year) and Nargothrond (with their killer-offence).

One might say Anfaughlith’s first round win over Imladris only 1-0 was a disappointment and might tell of a lack of quality in the team – and that would not be totally unfair a judgement as Anfaughlith hasn’t been a top scoring team at any point. But then again Angband’s humiliating loss to the T-I-G werewolves 0-2 is if possible even a darker shadow hanging over Morgoth’s team.

And looking at the group it will be this game that decides the second qualifier. So neither will back off or give ground to the other even an inch.

It is a game of survival.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or then Angband wins 2-1 with Melkor having a major role in at least one of the goals)


Group H

First games:
Mordor vs. Rohan 2-0
Anduin vs. Arnor 2-0


Arnor vs Mordor

Many media outlets were saying that Arnor would be topping the table while the AKM said Anduin would rule over them – and well that’s what happened. Now Arnor needs to win if they wish to have any hopes of qualification alive – but they might be facing a tougher opponent anyone expected; or then the Rohanians are just an easily scared bunch of lesser men of late ages (well, which they are, actually).

But then comes the common sense and settles the matter: if Gondor was able to beat Mordor 3-1 then why couldn’t Arnor do the same – and there is a nice comparison to them, do they wish to be outperformed by their southern brothers and cousins?

Just looking at the overall price-tag of their team it must be admitted that Shelob, Mouth and the two Nazgûls have fared a lot better anyone expected thus far – but giving them the easily scared Rohanians as their first opponent may have boostec their image a bit over it’s real value.

The AKM still thinks Arnor will qualify, led by the Witch King – only to be devoured by whoever comes to meet them from group A – but nevertheless.

The AKM predicts: Arnor wins 2-0 (2-1)


Anduin vs Rohan

Now Rohan may prove to be a tougher opponent to Anduin than Arnor was – but nothing they couldn’t handle. Then again, if Rohan wishes to keep any hopes alive for qualification they must win the game – and if they fall in trying too much Anduin will surely punish them for that.

So it will not be a walk in the park for Anduin but they will emerge the victors in the end whether they just prove themselves the better team or punish the Rohanians for too far-reaching attack. For Anduin defences are far better than those of Rohan or Arnor – and if one of the teams from this group could challenge a team from group A it would be Anduin (well, we’d doubt their chances against Armenelos but against Valimar or The Havens they might put up a fight).

Rohan will play serious and will get some balm to their wounds as now everyone laughs at them, but it will most probably not be enough.

The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 1-0