Arda Cup Football 2013

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Minas Tirith vs Tirion


[Projected formation. Minas Tirith in silver and black; Tirion in teal and yellow.]

Formation:

A fierce midfield clash seems to be in the works for these two sides. Minas Tirith have a natural numbers advantage in the centre of the pitch (3 vs 2), and Mardil has a tendency of tucking in to allow Cirion space to move forward, giving them a fourth player in that area. On the other hand, Mahtan also prefers to play more centrally, and either of Tirion’s forwards is comfortable dropping deep to close down the opposition’s deepest midfielder (Eärnil II, in this case.)

Tactics:

Whoever wins the midfield battle—a battle for possession—has a leg up over the other team. If Minas Tirith wins the possession battle, they could deny the ball to Tirion’s impressive attack and allow Cirion to move forward more often (with a possession advantage, Cirion would have less fear of a Tirion attack through his vacated part of the pitch.) They could then patiently probe Tirion’s solid defence and wait for a crack to show up.

If Tirion wins the possession battle, then the game would resemble Minas Tirith vs Nargothrond from the last round. Tirion could pen Minas Tirith in their own half and then bring their full attacking power into breaking them down. Considering the talent gap between the two teams, the greater onus is on Minas Tirith to control the centre of the pitch.

Prediction:

Minas Tirith’s midfield advantage might be enough to balance Tirion’s talent advantage, but, whereas Minas Tirith would have a tougher time breaking Tirion’s defence down, Finwë and Aredhel would need only a few chances to score against Minas Tirith’s defence. This won’t be the hammering that Minas Tirith-Nargothrond was, but the result for Minas Tirith would be the same.

Tirion 3-1 Minas Tirith
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Nargothrond vs The Sea


[Projected formation. The Sea in white and blue; Nargothrond in green and yellow.]

Formation:

Nargothrond’s midfield advantage means nothing to the Sea. Ulmo’s team would sit back, absorb the pressure, and then move the ball quickly up the pitch upon gaining possession. Nargothrond’s task would then be to turn possession dominance into tangible results against a team far more defensively solid than Minas Tirith.

Tactics:

Glaurung has shown ability to dominate games from his position in the hole, but in this game he would need more help. Gwindor would not run circles around Salmar the same way he did against Cirion, and Tar-Ciryatan and Voronwë would give the dragon a little more trouble than Eärnil II and Tarondor had; Finduilas and Nienor need to show more attacking intent than they did against Minas Tirith.

The tip of the Sea’s offence is Tar-Minastir, a forward far better than Boromir I of Minas Tirith. Orodreth should be quicker to claim passes played behind their defence—he would get worse than a ball in the face if ever Tar-Minastir gets a decent touch in. Also, Barahir should be more careful with his forward runs—Tar-Meneldur, along with his son Tar-Aldarion, is frighteningly quick on the counter, rushing forward to support the lone forward.

Prediction:

This game is one of the underrated gems of the round. The Sea has an Arda-class defence, as shown by their clean sheet against FC Valinor, but Tirion managed to breach it. Nargothrond’s attack is about a notch better than Tirion’s, but their defence is a lot worse. However, they managed to keep an impressive clean sheet against Minas Tirith through their high pressing and control of possession. If they hope to make serious noise in the cup after two years of disappointment, this is where they should start. On the other hand, a clean sheet against one of the premier offences of the tourney would be another feather on Ulmo’s cap. With that said, it is likely both teams will score, but not by much.

Nargothrond 1-1 The Sea

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Group A

The Havens 2-1 The Barrow-Downs

It must be terrifying for Olwë and company to be a good Bombadil game away from being eliminated. But they have to win, and they have to keep something in the tank for their game against Valimar.

Armenelos 1-1 Valimar

Unless Arien gets her chances and makes them, this game has the makings of a draw. Valimar’s defence could blunt Armenelos’s on-form offence, while the Westron defence would be enough to contain any Valimar attacker short of a dominant Arien.

Group C

Hithlum 3-1 SB United

While one could argue that SBU’s offence can give Hithlum’s defence problems, no one would argue that SBU’s defence would be in for a proper shellacking.

Doriath 0-3 Real Valinor

A game even more one-sided than the other fixture in this group.

Group D

Barad-dûr 2-0 Isengard

A Sauron-led team finally has a proper defence. This doesn’t bode well for Saruman’s squad.

Gondor 1-3 FC Valinor

Provided the Black Tower doesn’t spring an upset in the last round, the second spot of this group would go to whomever outscores Isengard—and whoever gets hammered by FC Valinor less.

Group E

Misty Mts 2-3 Wilderland

Misty Mts offence looks stronger than expected (with a goal against Elrond), while Wilderland’s defence looks as brittle as ever. This has the makings of another high-scoring affair.

Erebor 1-1 Eriador

Eriador’s defence won’t be as porous as Wilderland, but their offence doesn’t pack the same punch as Wilderland’s, either.

Group G

Imladris 0-3 Tol-in-Gaurhoth

Much has been made of Varda in Imladris’s back line. She is just one defender, whereas TiG has three quality attackers who can overpower or outmanoeuvre defences.

Angband 1-1 Anfauglith

A tough game to predict. One came off a bad loss, while one managed a narrow win. Still, it’s difficult to imagine Angband losing twice in a row. But it’s also difficult to see how they can score more than one against Anfauglith without opening themselves up to counterattacks.

Group H

Arnor 2-1 Mordor

Rohan was a favourable match-up for Mordor (Minas Morgul also beat Dunharrow in the 2011 Arda Cup), but the Men of the North won’t be similarly intimidated—especially since the Witch-king leads their line.

Anduin 2-0 Rohan

Anduin finally lives up to the quality shown by their price tag, defeating a decent Arnor squad featuring last year’s finalists Witch-king, Malbeth, and Arassuil. Surely they could also dominate against last year’s quarterfinalists who have lost much of their quality.