Arda Cup Football 2013

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Group Tables:



(1) secured first seed
(2) secured second seed
(x) eliminated

Bracket:


Power Rank:



(Teams in bold are group leaders; teams in italics are eliminated.)

Greatest gain:

• +9 Angband
• +8 Hithlum, Gondolin
• +6 Misty Mts

Greatest loss:

• -8 Barad-dûr
• -6 Dwarves Utd
• -5 The Havens, Inter Beleriand, Erebor

The Power Ranking is based on the aggregate of offensive and defensive ranking, combined with the adjusted goal difference rank of each team. The listed offensive and defensive rankings are from the actual numbers by the teams, and not adjusted. Ties are broken by a) win-draw-loss record; and b) goal difference.

The offensive ranking is based on the goals scored throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) greater number of shots made on target; and b) greater number of shots made.

The defensive ranking is based on the goals allowed throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) least number of shots allowed on target; and b) least number of shots allowed.

Top Individual Performers:
(Players in italics are from eliminated teams.)

GOALS + ASSISTS

4+0
Scatha (Wilderland)

3+1
Maedhros (Inter Beleriand)
Túrin (Hithlum)
Sauron (Barad-dûr)
Argon (FC Valinor)
Curufin (FC Valinor)

3+0
Glaurung (Nargothrond)
Ar-Pharazôn (Armenelos)
Eärendil (The Havens)
Arien (Valimar)
Tuor (Gondolin)
Aredhel (Tirion)

2+2
Eöl (AC Beleriand)
Maeglin (Gondolin)
Hador (Hithlum)
Durin’s Bane (Misty Mts)
Finrod (Nargothrond)

2+1
Smaug (Erebor)
Aegnor (AC Beleriand)
Ancalagon (Angband)
Fëanor (AC Beleriand)
Fingon (Inter Beleriand)

GOALKEEPING

• 90.00% – 09/10 – Tulkas (Real Valinor)
• 87.50% – 07/08 – ShastaWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
• 83.33% – 15/18 – Arvedui (Arnor)
• 83.33% – 15/18 – Tar-Atanamir (Armenelos)
• 83.33% – 10/12 – Amroth (Anduin)
• 83.33% – 10/12 – Manwë (Valimar)
• 83.33% – 05/06 – Huan (FC Valinor)

[Nogrod]

The group-phase is over and it’s time for the play-offs! And what thrillers there are on offer!

Sure a few games look like the one going through is more or less secured based on the huge difference in the quality of the groups – but even in those games one must remember that it is now up to a single game and even the mightiest teams can screw it up and the lousiest teams may have luck on their side… or then some teams just are harder for some others to play against even if they would crush other types of teams likeBalrog does a flower. But just glancing at the possible quarterfinals makes one shiver – what pairings there wil be, and how many “moral finals” already on these early stages!

But to the first round of qualifiers first.


A1 Valimar vs. H2 Arnor

Valimar: Through the years all Manwë’s teams have been formidable by their looks and scary by their inherent power but they have never quite delivered, being the team that famously wins with one to nil, gets risen only againt the baddies and loses when some real talent plays against them. This year it looks a bit different and the adding of Arien into the offence (or her return actually) makes them look really dangerous this season.

Arnor: The kings of the north are a proud team but sadly their quality is not one matching their elders or the other powers of Arda. Last season they fought bravely against Inter Beleriand and Eriador only to be run over by Gondolin – this year they started by losing squarely to Anduin only to rise up and redeem themselves with narrow victories over Mordor and Rohan – hardly teams winning of which would make you rise up on any table of odds for the cup. The Witch King and Elendil sure are players no one can bypass but neither has shown anything tremendous thus far.


From that it should be easy to deduce the AKM will not bet on Arnor to qualify. To make an immediate disclaimer the AKM notes though that Arnor is maybe suited better than any other team to prove to be a hard opponent for Valimar just because of their goody-good looks and their defence-first strategy. But there is also the issue of the Witch King who might be – and normally would be – an asset for the team having him, but who could actually arouse some righteous anger in team Valimar making them by-pass their initial drive to be nice against Arnor’s northern Dunedáin.

The stats are favouring Valimar in no uncertain terms. As themselves the stats are basically even or somewhat favourable to Valimar – but looking at the level of the game in the two groups the teams played one sees immediately that Valimar has earned their stats against pretty much a league better opponents than Arnor.

And to close the case the AKM wishes to draw the attention to two stats in particular. Valimar’s efficiency in scoring (counting all the shots) is 15,2% against Arnors’s 7,9% - and Arnor has allowed 45 shots againt them while Valimar has only allowed 33 – and that is, against a lot tougher opponents.

The AKM predicts: Valimar goes forward winning 2-0.

Valimar		5-2	2-1-0
4/10 – 3/10	5/14 – 4/12	4/9 – 5/11	= 13/33 – 12/33	5/33	15,2%
Manwë	0/3 + 1/4 + 1/5 = 2/12	83,3%

Arnor		3-3	2-0-1
4/13 – 7/16	6/13 – 6/15	4/12 – 5/14	= 14/38 – 18/45	3/38	7,9%
Arvedui	2/7 + 1/6 + 0/5 = 3/18	83,3%

B1 AC Beleriand vs. G2 Angband

AC Beleriand: Fëanor-tribe has been just cool and collected this season, rising up to be one of the serious candidates to win the whole cup this year. Their game has been impressive and efficient both ways – even if many people tend to worry about their downstairs. And it is coming forth more and more as a team and not like Fëanor and his minions; actually Aegnor, Eöl and Balrog #4 are ahead of Fëanor in phantasy points and Fingolfin shares the fourth place with him. That said, Fëanor still is the biting teeth only few teams have and he can change the course of a game single-handedly if there is need for it.

Angband: Melkor’ team took a really bad beating from the T-I-G on the first round of the group-stage and many thought their star was descending – but since that they have gathered themselves and shown they can really play some impressive and efficient football. And no team in their senses would disregard the threat of Ancalagon and Morgoth playing together. Behind them, with Tevildo there goes also Oikeroi who has shown himself a real threat as well. So Angband is not a team to be taken lightly by anyone – even the Valimar-based teams.


Fëanor vs. Morgoth would be a classic anytime but this time both teams have also a lot to claim – AC Beleriand sure is willing to go to the final from where they were shut off last year and Angband still remembers sorely the shoot-out they lost to Minas Tirith more or less to the floppiness of their performance during the game. With the animosity between the teams already in the air, everything talks of one of the hottest games of the round taking place here. Well, Fëanor vs. Melkor… how hot can it get?

Both teams have met with some real tough opposition in the group phase – but a bit different ones. AC Beleriand has met with strongly offence-orientated Gondolin and Inter Beleriand and the strong defenders Dwarves Utd. while Angband has met lousy Imladris, defending-powerhouse Anfaughlith and the all-around aggressive madness of the T-I-G. Therefore one should take AC’s statistical lead over Angband in offence with a pinch of salt. That said, AC Beleriand has been almost double more effective in scoring than Angband – and the difference of their opponents’ defending thus far hasn’t been that great.

Carcaroth may be having a shinier legend as a goal keeper but Marach is on the other hand quite unjustly one of the least appreciated top-goalies of the tournament basically year after year – and Marach does beat Carcaroth in percentages thus far. Carcaroth has the minus in his stats for meeting T-I-G – in other games his percentges are pretty good indeed (1/6 aka. 83,3%) – but as Marach has stood against both Gondolin and Inter Beleriand with 81,8% one should deem that more or less even – or then even favouring AC Beleriand slightly.

Those facts considered – and taking in the great rivalry the game is going to have the AKM thinks AC Beleriand will qualify – even if it’s going to be a tough one.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins 2-1.

AC Beleriand	8-2	3-0-0
7/16 – 6/12	6/13 – 3/10	8/16 – 2/7	= 21/45 – 11/29	8/45	17,8%
Marach	1/6 + 1/3 + 0/2 = 2/11	81,8%
Angband		5-3	2-0-1
4/14 – 6/15	8/19 – 3/10	8/17 – 3/9	= 20/50 – 12/34	5/50	10%
Carcaroth	2/6 + 0/3 + 1/3 = 3/12	75%

C1 Real Valinor vs. F2 Tirion

Real Valinor: Before the season many thought Real Valinor would not be top contenders both because they felt satisfied with the last year’s victory but also because they lost their single most important game-changer with Arien moving to Valimar. But Real has shown the doubters they’re in the game also this year for real, for Real (if you excuse bad puns). They draw with FC Valinor in the friendlies (losing them twice last season), beat the mighty Hithlum 3-1 and took comfortable 2-0 victories of the lesser teams of their group (Melian’s Doriath and Gandalf’s Shire-Bree – teams good enough to have caused a lot of trouble to many teams qualified from other groups).

Tirion: With last season’s bitter memories (facing FC Valinor, Real and Armenelos in the group phase and left the last of the group) Tirion is all for revenge – and they have been quite impressive. Beating Gondolin in the friendlies 2-0 showed their qualities and drawing with Angband solidified their status. Pushing the Sea off the qualifiers is a mark of a good team and being able to contain Nargothrond to a draw tells the same story. Finwë and Aredhel form one of the deadliest offencive duos of the tournament and with them the team either takes the glory or perishes.


Even if the AKM thinks Tirion is a great team and would have talent to advance a long way it seems Real Valinor is just a level too tough an opponent for them – as last year. The chance Tirion might have is if Real is already looking forwards to their game against FC Valinor the next round and forget they need to win Tirion first. But looking at the professionalism within the ranks of Real Valinor that seems like a vain dream.

Finwë, Aredhel and Mahtan should make any opponent worried, but compared to Miriel, Nerdanel and Oromë backed by Nessa… well there just is a difference. Caranthir leading the defence with Amrod and Amras is great and having Finarfin at the goal even more so – but compare it to a defence led by Tilion including Nienna and Nahar and goal guarded by Tulkas himself – and once again you see a difference.

Drawing with the Sea and Nargothrond are merits to Tirion, but Real Valinor’s beating of Hithlum 3-1 is just on a different class. Tirion will not let Real win easily but Real will prevail in the end – and Real will be their undoing once again.

The AKM predicts: Real Valinor wins 2-1.

Real Valinor		7-1	3-0-0
9/22 – 5/14	7/15 – 2/8	6/14 – 3/9	= 22/51 – 10/31	7/51	13,7%
Tulkas	1/5 + 0/2 + 0/3 = 1/10	90%
Tirion		5-3 	1-2-0
4/13 – 4/12	8/16 – 3/9	8/18 – 6/15	= 20/47 – 13/36	5/47	10,6%
Finarfin	1/4 + 0/3 + 2/6 = 3/13	76,9%

D1 FC Valinor vs. E2 Misty Mountains

FC Valinor: Everyone is afraid of brothers Curufin and Celegorm and with Huan backing them up – aided by Yavanna, Eönwe and Thorondor… well they are a bunch no one wishes to meet in contest. Talk about elite players and here you have them, a full house scoring eight goals to one conceded in the group phase. They have so much to grunt from last season and such a crew you hardly see them lose a game this year with their superb offencive power and tight defence.

Misty Mountains: The wild-card of this year’s tournament made it through before Erebor and Wilderland – maybe because of the success of the Hobbit movies (Azog!) or something – no one really undestands it. After drawing with Imladris and losing to Barad-Dûr in the friendlies they were able to knock out two major teams! That belittling aside, Durin’s Bane is a top class player and Gwaihir has the character of being able to win things by himself when needed (like he kind of did in their last game against Erebor).


Now Gwaihir might have been able to fool Meneldor and Landroval but Thorondor, the king of Eagles, will have none of that happening under his watch. Durin’s Bane may be a mighty one but faced with Eönwe and Huan he will have no chance whatsoever to bully his way through – or to threaten Tulkas. On the other end of the field the brothers, Yavanna and Argon will just vreac havoc even if the defences are big…

One might argue that FC Valinor’s stats are mileading as they had one of the easiest groups to qualify from whereas Misty Mts. really had to battle it out – and one could add that Huan’s fit this year has not been seriously tested as he has only been shot at six times (while Chief Wolf has faced 18 shots), but even that taken in to account it is hard to see any other result but FC Valinor going forwards from this game – to meet Real Valinor!

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor wins 3-1.

FC Valinor		8-1	3-0-0
7/14 – 1/7	6/14 – 2/8	7/16 – 3/10	= 20/44 – 6/25	8/44	18,2%
Huan	0/1 + 0/2 + 1/3 = 1/6	83,3%
Misty Mountains	5-5	1-1-1
4/12 – 6/12	5/13 – 7/18	7/14 – 5/14	= 16/39 – 18/44	5/39	12,8%
Chief Wolf	2/6 + 2/7 + 1/5 = 5/18	72,2%

E1 Eriador vs. D2 Barad-Dûr

Eriador: Led by Elrond Eriador has been as effective as possible with the minimal effort once again. Eriador is a team the AKM journalists love to hate: steady, careful, risk-avoiding, temperate, quiet, low-laying yet effective and inpenetrable fortress for a team – and that doesn’t mean you can’t score against them, no way – but somehow in the end of every tournament Elrond is one of the best goalies even if he doesn’t have the most work, and they win games to reach the final stages of the games whoever they meet on the way. But like never 4-0 but rather 1-0 or 2-1. Annoyingly efficient team –and can go far this year as well.

Barad-Dûr: Sauron got it from the group phase and gave a decent fight to already satisfied FC Valinor – other than that would have been scandalous: had they not qualified as Gondor and Isengard were more jokes than real teams this year (and yet Gondor forced them into a draw). Sauron has added credibility to the defences – and he must be cursing now the fact that the stubborn NogWolf didn’t see the ingenuinity of his plan to make Nog as a wolf the pillar of his defence but went on for a mediocre midfield status to Eriador as a Wight - a classy werewolf would have been a great add-on to the wizards and one Fellbeast. But it’s not only that: Castamir and Beruthiel are not delivering – like they didn’t the last year – and Sauron has a lot to do to try and score games by himself.


Only a few would bet on Barad-Dûr but if they get it right they’ll earn some real bragging rights. And the AKM actually thinks that if you have to (or want to) bet against odds in one game this might be the one you might try it.

Now Eriador’s stats are a bit better than Barad-Dûr’s but FC Valinor disregarded the opponents of Eriador were league ahead of those Barad-Dûr has faced. Now the wizards of Barad-Dûr’s defence might pose a problem for Isildur and Arveleg but it is doubtful they could enchant Glorfindel or NogWight. On the other end Sauron is always a trouble for any defence, but looking at the line of Gil-Galad, Asfaloth, Aragorn and Arwen in front of Elrond it would seem Sauron’s chances of scoring more than Eriador as a team is slight.

As said, the stas are pretty close, but consistently favouring Eriador.

The AKM predicts: Eriador wins 2-1.

Eriador		4-2	2-1-0
6/12 – 4/12	5/12 – 3/12	3/10 – 4/11	= 14/34 – 11/35	4/34	11,8%
Elrond	1/4 + 0/3 + 1/4 = 2/11	81,8%
Barad Dûr		4-4	1-1-1
6/14 – 4/13	5/13 – 5/11	3/10 – 7/16	= 14/37 – 16/40	4/37	10,8%
Grishnakh	1/4 + 1/5 + 2/7 = 4/16	75%

F1 Nargothrond vs. C2 Hithlum

Nargothrond: The offencive powerhouse number one, but not that impressively ahead of others –they are more or less falling into the same category with teams like Gondolin or Armenelos: teams that have what it takes and yet have hard time to deliver it. But with the attacking trio of Finrod Felagund, Glaurung and Gwindor, how is it they just don’t seem to deliver? Orodreth sure isn’t the hottest goalie but guys like Beor the Old and Barahir should be able to keep the defences tight.

Hithlum: Last year was just a disaster. This time around Hithlum has put all their eggs in one bucket. Yes, they lost to Real Valinor badly on the first round and their friendlies were not exactly showing them as an unstoppable force… but nonetheless Hithum is serious to advance and it takes quite a team to stop them. Just looking at their goal difference from the last two games, 7-1, should make any opponent pause. Especially the “founding father” Hador Lorindol has really stepped up this season (well with all his familys fortunes in the team he should) and Túrin has been getting hotter and hotter every game. Huor at the goal might be their Achilles’ heel though – even if he os not exactly a bad keeper – but is he a winning keeper and for how far?


Looking at how different the two groups were it is astonishing how similar the stats of both teams are. Shots to goal and shots allowed – as well as overall shots and overall shots allowed are almost identical. Hithlum is more efficient in scoring (16% vs. 13%) but Orodreth keeps the goal reasonably safer (79% vs. 74%) – which is (with the similar numbers with shots made and allowed) quite accurately shown in their scores: Hithlum has made on goal more while Nargothrond has allowed one less.

So statistically the game starts with neither team having an edge – and both teams rely on forcefully attacking football. Add to that the tensions between some players in the teams… If Fëanor vs. Melkor is a hot duel then what should one say about Túrin and Glaurung fighting it off? And well, we’re going to have another really hot game here!

But where to pick the difference then? Nargothrond has been consistent against tough adversaries drawing with both The Sea and Tirion while Hithlum took a beating from Real Valinor. On the other hand Nargothrond beat the very weak Minas Tirith “only” 3-0 while Hithlum cleared a lot tougher (compared to MT) Shire-Bree and Doriath 4-1 and 3-1 respectively. On Nargothrond’s side Gwindor has yet to find his form and Nienor who was in flames in the friendlies has somewhat disappeared. On Hithlum’s side both Beleg and Húrin have been playing in a low key thus far as surely a lot more has been anticipated from them. So hard to say…

The AKM predicts: a draw 2-2 (or 3-3), the ensuing shoot-out will be anyone’s game.

Nargothrond		7-4	1-2-0
10/25 – 4/12	6/13 – 7/15	6/15 – 8/18	= 22/53 – 19/45	7/53	13,2%
Orodreth	0/4 + 2/7 + 2/8 = 4/19	78,9%
Hithlum		8-5	2-0-1
5/14 – 9/22	8/18 – 4/10	9/18 – 6/14	= 22/50 – 19/46	8/50	16%
Húor	3/9 + 1/4 + 1/6 = 5/19	73,7%

G1 Tol-in-Gaurhoth vs. B2 Gondolin

Tol-in-Gaurhoth: The wolfpack has been quite anemic since the restrictions on their lupinity took place and being forced to play more as Wights than Werewolves. But with the eased rules they are now allowed six werewolves in their pack (one of them being actually none less than Draugluin himself) and with the surprise-signing of Thuringwethil they suddenly look like they used to be: dangerous, aggressive, athletic, fast, furious and deadly – and all that with solid defences. And they have suddenly bounced to be one of the most talked-of team, but also a serious contender to go, very far at least.

Gondolin: Many say Gondolin is not playing up to their credentials and that the days of their glory have waned away – and somehow dismiss them as not “any more” a great team. And it is true they haven’t played on the final rounds in a few years now – but they are still a formidable team. Last year, like this one, they took themselves out from the group-phase with a glorious last match fight. Last season they had the tough luck of being thrown under a bus called AC Beleriand in their first qualification game (they lost then cleanly 0-2 but this year in the group stage only 1-2). Looking at their friendlies kind of tell a lot: they were beaten by Tirion 0-2 but draw with Hithlum 2-2 – so they are capable of challenging even the great teams on a good day and they do know how to fight – but can also collapse like they did against Dwarves Utd. at group phase.


In a sense this is actually a perfect match-up for both teams as the first round of qualifiers go. If T-I-G is willing to rise as a serious contender for the whole Cup they need to be able to beat Gondolin which is a level tougher opponent than Imladris or even Anfaughlith (which T-I-G draw with) – especially as Gondolin is going to attack in force unlike most of the teams T-I-G has played against. But also, if Gondolin is willing to pose as a serious team they need exactly this kind of very physical and rough-playing opponent to hone their defence and show they can actually outscore a team of that kind.

And yet as you could see both teams as quite challenges to each other, one can see both teams having decent chances in winning the game as well.

Leaving all that behind it is true tht T-I-G’s stats look consistently – if narrowly – better, except in goal-keeping where the difference is big indeed for T-I-G. It’s not only Shastawolf’s excellence compared to Rôg but the difference is rooted in the number of shots the teams allow. Eight shots towards goal in three games vs. eighteen shots makes a huge difference. But there is a “but” as well. Both Beleriand teams – and even Dwarves Utd.! – are actively offensive teams who shoot a lot whereas Imladris and Anfaughlith are almot opposites to that. Then again T-I-G defences managed to keep Angband’s shots relatively few in numbers even if they normally do play aggressive offence.

So in the end it will all be up to whether the T-I-G can keep their goal clean as it seems Gondolin will allow a goal or probably two anyway. So how many will Gondolin score?

The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 2-1 (or draw 2-2).

Tol-In-Gaurhoth	5-1	2-1-0
6/15 – 4/14	6/14 – 1/8	5/14 – 3/8	= 17/43 – 8/30	5/43	11,6%
ShastaWolf	0/4 + 0/1 + 1/3 = 1/8	87,5%
Gondolin		5-6	1-0-2
6/12 – 7/16	6/16 – 4/13	9/21 – 7/17	= 21/49 – 18/46	5/49	10,2%
Rôg	2/7 + 2/4 + 2/7 = 6/18	66,7%

H1 Anduin vs. A2 Armenelos

Anduin: The strength of the team is not in having one or two superstars to bring the games home but in their quite level quality through the team. So no stars but no weak links either. Winning group seconds Arnor 2-0 was confident work but other than that they have hardly impressed anyone (playing even with Shire-Bree or Mordor hardly sounds like a quarterfinalist performance). It maybe the river Anduin may host a great team in years to come able to go far in the tournament, but it is not this year.

Armenelos: The proud kings of their great island of Númenor have downgraded their salaries but at the same time made their team more solid – with the come back of Elros the team is ready to make good the last year’s disaster. If you can call losing to FC and Real Valinor a “disaster” instead of calling it just understandable – and that might be their greatest problem this year, they themselves. If they only concentrate on setting things right on a grander scale they might forget to play football – which they sure know how to do. Taking a bit more relaxed attitude would do them good and could carry them all way at least to the semis – or even to the end. But concentrate on wrong things and their tournament might even end here.


Both teams are rare breeds in a way that they both are pretty rock-solid through and through with no real weak links in them. And the stats are astonishingly similar up to the exact same percentages in both goal-scoring and –keeping. Anduin has a little better defencive stas overall while Armenelos is an inch better in the offensive stats.

But then we come, once again, into comparing the groups in which the stats were made – and only a fool would say that playing against Arnor, Rohan and Mordor would come even near equalling games against The Havens, Valimar and the Barrow-Downs (the last one maybe, but not the two earlier ones). Taking a look back at their friendlies confirms the matter. Both lost a game in the friendlies with one goal: Armenelos to AC Beleriand and Anduin to Eriador – all respect to Eriador but quite a few would bet on AC this year if the two met. They both also played a draw: Anduin with Shire-Bree and Armenelos with Nargothrond – and there should be no question which one draw was the great deed and which one was not.

If they play their best Anduin can challenge Armenelos but the AKM wouldn’t bet a lot on their chances against the mighty Númenorians.

The AKM predicts: Armenelos wins 2-1.

Anduin		5-2	2-1-0
7/16 – 4/13	4/12 – 5/14	5/14 – 3/10	= 16/42 – 12/37	5/42	11,9%
Amroth	0/4 + 1/5 + 1/3 = 2/12	83,3%
Armenelos		5-3	2-1-0
6/14 – 6/14	4/12 – 5/14	8/16 – 7/15	= 18/42 – 18/43	5/42	11,9%
Tar Atanamir	1/6 + 1/ 5 + 1/7 = 3/18	83,3%

[Nogrod]

Now before the play-offs really beging it’s a good time to turn one’s eyes back for a monent to hear from them who are not among the teams playing any more, for sure there will be things interesting the audience concerning both their performance this year as their plans for the next season. The AKM managed to meet Bandobras Took (Shire-Bree United), Elwë Singollo (Doriath), Bard The Bowman (Erebor) and Scatha (Wilderland) at the AFA meeting and sat them down for a short chat. And we also managed to wrestle out from them predictions on how the tournament will go...


The AKM: Mr Bullroarer, how do you think your tournament went this year?

Bandobras: Well we did draw with mr. High elven king’s team here, but if you put any team in the same group with Hithlum and Real Valinor, well then phewffft… We played well and can contain the 3 million we lost unlike many others who will be deep in trouble.

The AKM: But can you keep the Grey Wanderer and his horse with you the next year – and we understand Gildor was playing for you with a one season contract anyway? So where do you turn for reinforcements? More Nazgûl with ten million salaries each? Khamûl scored zero in the tournament and #6 collected two assists in five games…

Bandobras: Don’t you lecture on me young man. Sure we’re no AC Beleriand or Real Valinor everyone would take a major cut down in salary only to just be able to play for them. But we’re not that unattractive either. We can both attract good players as afford to make our terms clear for those possibly wishing to come or stay. Just take my word for it.

The AKM: Are you possibly referring to what what we heard from your young relative, mr. Peregrin back there that he might be having an old friend of his “from the top circles” joining him next season – and thus actualy betraying he will play for you the next season? And maybe young mr. Meriadoc is joining as well – I think he would have a friend in “the top circles” as well?

Bandobras: Oh, no… nonsense. That fool of a Took! You media-people go sell your magazines and adds with over too-early speculation. That’s what you’re good at.

The AKM: Okay, thank you mr. Took. Now lord Thingol, how about your teams performance this season?

Elwë: Well, obviously we’re not happy being left into the group stage this year, but to be fair, hats off to Real Valinor and Hithlum, they were just better teams this year and we had tough luck in the group-lottery.

The AKM: You seem to take it quite gracefully – and sure you lost some talent from last year’s squad… so what are your plans for the next season?

Elwë: Wouldn’t it be a bit premature to play or show one’s hand while this year’s tournament is still underway?

The AKM: Obviously. But could you give us something?

Elwë: Well, we made quite a nice financial result with only 5 million in losses – but all the merchadise and luxury-packages we were able to make on top of the pure ticket-sales, which of course go to the AFA, while hosting the group kind of brought us into a nice balance – so unlike some other teams which like mr. Took already noted – will have severe financial problems we stand on a firm footing and let’s say, we’re doing our best to bring some talent back for the next season to be more competitive. We sure will have the markers next year both to the players from the big teams whose teams need to make cuts and to those of smaller teams who can’t afford to pay their stars anymore.

The AKM: So you’re wishing for Hithlum to fail this year with their mighty economical investments – getting Beleg back to lead your troops by the side of Mablung? Or maybe getting Beren and Luthien back from Inter who did fail?

Elwë: That’s what you say…

The AKM: All right then… How about you mr. Bowman, not exactly a bullseye this year…

Bard: Well not… Personally, it just felt I couldn’t quite come to play on my level – and in a way the whole team had a similar kind of feeling. Don’t know where it came from, though. An underperformance, yes.

The AKM: And it all culminated in your last game against Misty Mountains… now some have already suggested there were foul play involved, especially Bolg’s red card. Was he bought?

Bard: I find that kind of speculation deeply disturbing and against the ethics of the sport.

The AKM: Are you then inferring that these baddies turn into highly ethical and virtuous beings as soon as they just get a glimpse of a white leather ball on a green?

Bard: Of course not… but that would have been degrading beyond reproach. Anyway, it is hard for me to see Bolg playing for Erebor the next season – or well, never.

The AKM: 29 million losses. How’s you next season looking?

Bard: Do you call that a question? Erebor Crftsmen Union does have deep pockets and Moneybags Monetary Management isn’t downright poor either – but sure we’re facing some major cuts… and the cuts in salaries will most probably involve everyone.

The AKM: What if Smaug is offered more somewhere else – like by Sauron to play for Wilderland?

Bard: Let’s hope even the greediest of the dragons has a spot in his soul for his home.

The AKM: Thank you mr. Bowman. Turning to you Scatha – how would it feel to play alongside Smaug the next season?

Scatha: Oh, the talented youngster? Why not, why not… our playing-styles sure are quite different – him having all those fancy wings and such – but why not? It might even be fun.

The AKM: Am I right in thinking that you were not pleased with your team’s performance this year either?

Scatha: Either you’re not too smart little-man or then you think me a simpleton – which isn’t very smart from you either… But the fact is this: if you just play three draws you seldom advance – and this year we didn’t have that final energy or stamina to pull a win from those close games.

The AKM: Who would you like to buy off from Erebor for the next year; Smaug, Bolg, a Nazgûl maybe?

Scatha: If you ask my opinion, I’d pick my kin of course – the Nazgûl are overrated as they are just men and the goblins rarely have what it takes to play a game. But the bosses decide these things, not me. I just play.


The AKM: Thank you all for your views. Now could I just bother you with your comments or predictions about the tournament: how’s it gonna go?

Elwë: With my dear commander Beleg our prodigal son Túrin will reach far in this tournament. But I’m going to cheer more for my dear friends and relatives with Nargothrond and Tirion to be honest…

Scatha: I could actually side with you cheering for Nargothrond – but unlike you I think that led by Glaurung they will crush Hithlum – and who’s to stop them then? But the team most people seem to forget is Angband… you think this Fëanor guy is that good, really? I think it’s reality-check -time.

Bard: Well, if Nargothrond beats Hithlum Eriador will stop them in the next one. I mean they may not be all the flash and all that jazz, but they produce results – and I’ll be cheering for them for sure. Anduin and Arnor are close to my heart as well and I think both have chances to get at least one step ahead.

Bandobras: Really? Have you ever seen Valimar play – or played against them? I’m afraid even the proud northern kings are no match for them – even if I will be there cheering with you for them.

Bard: I’d be betting my money rather on Anduin beating Armenelos.

Elwë: I would not wish to sound rude, but do you have any understanding of the Dúnedain – or the difference between the likes of you and them? With all due respect, that is.

Scatha: Ha-ha! Old vain elves and their golden days of old… you guys lost it, haven't you realized it?

The AKM: Okay, okay… easy, please… Your favourites to win the championship?

Bandobras: Valimar beats T-I-G in the final 2-1.

Elwë: Hithlum meets AC Beleriand in the finals and on that occasion I’m going to cheer for Túrin and his father.

Bard: I need to stick with Eriador coming through all the way from the “lower” bracket. But who would they meet there? That’s a bit fishy… Either Valinor-team or AC Beleriand. I do hope Eriador wins it and clears their runner-up status from last year into champs.

Scatha: Hithlum is the worst opponent Nargothrond could have on the first stage as they are the only other team I’d say Nargothrond needs to give credit on their side of the bracket. But if – and I’d say when – they clear it, then it is finals for Nargothrond. There they’ll meet Angband, naturally. Even if the semifinal between Tulkas and Morgoth will be a tough one I’m quite confident Ancalagon beats the Fëanor-brats.

The AKM: Well, thank you all for your time and all the best for the next season.

[the phantom]

MESPN Round-Table Discussion
Live from Amon Obel

Philip McPhantom: Well folks, here we are- it's playoff time again! And as always we’re here to provide views of the way group-play ended up and to give predictions for the first round of the playoffs. I’m Philip McPhantom, MESPN Lead Football Coordinator, and with me I have the dragon Ruharg the Red, the lead sports editor of Monster Magazine, and Ar-Tar-Aradil, sports writer for Westernesse Weekly and president of the Numenorean Association for the Advancement of Football.

Ruharg: Hello again.

Ar-Tar-Aradil: Pleasure as always.

P McPhantom: Well, first things first, why don’t we all say where we’ve been and where we’re headed.

Ruharg: I spent group play in Erebor, and for the first round I’m headed up to Mithrim to watch AC Beleriand and Angband play.

Ar-Tar-A: I spent the first two rounds about Tol Eressea mobile stadium, and when it docked in the Blessed Realm I went on to Valimar to watch the final game there. For the playoffs I’m headed back to Valimar to watch them play Arnor.

PMcP: I watched the first round at Anduin, then I made it down to Dol Amroth in time to catch Tol Eressea when it docked briefly there and caught the second round at Balar, and then went up to Gondolin for the third round. For the playoffs I’m headed to Tol-In-Gaurhoth.

Ruharg: I have wings, so I can get around pretty darn fast, but how are you two getting around so quick?

PMcP: Well, a few eagles cut a deal with MESPN—they’d get our correspondents around quickly, and they’d have their choice of seating for free wherever we were headed, and meals on us of course.

ATA: Yeah, a big thanks to our eagle friends.

PMcP: And in case any of our listeners are wondering why we’re in Amon Obel, it was just a nice meeting spot for all our analysts. Adanel was covering the Anfauglith group and she was passing through on the way to Nargothrond, Finwanaro is also on his way to Nargothrond from the Doriath group, and it wasn’t much out of the way for Mortakh, as he’s going from Anfauglith to Mithrim.

Ruharg: Will any of those three be joining us today?

PMcP: They’re actually doing a show of their own right now, but I do have lists of their picks and comments, so maybe we’ll mention them later.

ATA: Where are the rest of the MESPN folks?

PMcP: Well, Haldan ended in Dol Amroth and he’s headed up to Amon Hen, Glain is headed from Gondolin to the Blessed Realm, and Arvagil is going from Anduin up to Weathertop.

ATA: So MESPN will have all the sites well covered.

PMcP: You know it!

Ruharg: Can we get down to business now?

PMcP: My my, can you believe someone is anxious to discuss football?

ATA: Heh, I think we all are.

PMcP: So first things first—what did you two think of the group stage? Ruharg first, since he’s so impatient.

Ruharg: I’m not exactly happy about the group I witnessed firsthand, obviously.

ATA: Yes, your dragon buddies had some hard luck in Erebor.

Ruharg: I thought Smaug and Scatha might give Eriador some trouble, but credit to them—they handled things professionally. And Misty Mts, well—I feel they sort of outdid the others at their own game.

PMcP: Durin’s Bane played like a dragon, didn’t he?

ATA: And the Misty defense proved rough and tough enough to handle the Wilderland and Erebor attacks.

Ruharg: All true. Credit to the Misty Mts.

PMcP: Why don’t we back up a minute and start at the top—Group A.

ATA: It was much as I expected—Armenelos and Valimar advancing and The Havens giving them a good run for their money.

Ruharg: And I was pleased to see the Barrow-Downs step up their game.

PMcP: Yes, they gave Armenelos and Havens all they could handle. How about Group B?

ATA: Also as I expected.

Ruharg: About everyone had AC Beleriand through, but Gondolin wasn’t who I picked.

PMcP: Picking the second team from this group was very tough. I had the Dwarves.

Ruharg: I had Inter Beleriand.

ATA: Those were both worthy picks. The defensive organization and talent of the Dwarves set them apart in group, while the offensive flare of Inter made them attractive.

Ruharg: But in the end Gondolin outscored them. I shouldn’t have doubted Maeglin and company.

PMcP: Did everyone get Group C correct?

Ruharg: Real and Hithlum here.

ATA: Same. I toyed with the idea of Doriath and Shire-Bree as a second team—they weren’t pushovers. But the other two squads just had too much firepower.

PMcP: How did you fare in Group D?

ATA: I thought Gondor would get in ahead of Barad-Dur.

Ruharg: That’ll teach you to bet against Sauron. How could you not have him in the playoffs?

PMcP: To be fair, he doesn’t have the hottest talent helping him score. Though I did think they’d have Gondor’s number—he’ll forever be a thorn in their side.

ATA: Everyone had FCVal of course.

PMcP: Heh, yes, no reason to discuss that. How about Group E?

Ruharg: Now, now, no reason to rehash those bad memories. I think we covered it.

PMcP: Ah right. Group F?

ATA: I definitely got this one wrong. I had The Sea and Minas Tirith.

PMcP: I had Sea and Tirion.

Ruharg: Sea and Nargothrond.

PMcP: So why didn’t the Sea come through?

ATA: Scoring. Tirion and Nargothrond had the weapons and the mindset, but The Sea just didn’t know how to be aggressive, so they were left out despite having good possession numbers and a solid defense.

Ruharg: Yep, they just needed a bit more fire.

ATA: *sigh* Maybe fire and water don’t mix.

PMcP: Group G?

Ruharg: This was probably my favorite group—three of the squads had creatures after my own heart.

PMcP: How did you pick between them?

Ruharg: I didn’t think there was any way Morgoth would get left in groups. He’d will his way to victory one way or another. As far as choosing the second squad, I went with Angfauglith, and I was wrong.

ATA: I picked them too.

PMcP: I got this one right, boys. I had TIG winning the group. I thought their midfield was better than Angfauglith’s, and their defense was just as good, and their style better suited for Angband. And onto the final group…

Ruharg: I had Anduin, but not Arnor. I had Mordor instead.

ATA: You were nearly right, but you should’ve stuck with Arnor.

PMcP: Arnor was smarter and more organized, yes, and perhaps Witch King was helpful in breaking down the opposition. He’s familiar with Mordor’s players after all.

Ruharg: And it’s a shame that Rohan goes home without points, but it doesn’t surprise me. They simply lost too much from last year.

PMcP: Now let’s look forward at the playoff matches, guys. Valimar versus Arnor.

ATA: We know the Dunedain of the north have upset the high-flyers of the Blessed Realm before, but I’m having trouble picking them this year.

Ruharg: Yes, Valimar wins this one. With Arien spear-heading things up front, Arnor won’t be successful with their tactics.

PMcP: What do you think those tactics will be?

Ruharg: They’ll try to own the ball a lot and clog things up and play politely etc. and generally try to keep things at 0-0 for as long as possible, then try for a miracle goal.

ATA: That does sound about right. And really I’d give them some chance at pulling it off against most given their execution and discipline, but you’re right Ruharg—I think Arien is too hot to handle like that.

PMcP: So then, any chance Arnor realizes that and tries a bit more attacking to keep Valimar honest?

ATA: I’ve debated about that, and in the end, I just think Arnor will stick to character.

PMcP: Okay then, how about perhaps the most anticipated match of the first round, Angband versus AC Beleriand?

Ruharg: This ought to be everyone’s most anticipated match. I mean—look at the squads. Before the start of the tournament, if you’d have said that this would be the championship game, no one would have expressed any surprised. It’s almost a shame that the clash happens so soon and one team will go home so early.

ATA: Heh, yes, this is definitely a match of epic proportions, but I’m not disappointed to see it early. With the way the tournament is set up there will always be a match or two like this early on, and it’s part of what keeps things interesting, right?

Ruharg: I guess that’s one way to look at it.

PMcP: Any bold predictions?

ATA: I think AC wins this one solidly. But of course Ruharg will disagree.

Ruharg: Well, actually, I’m leaning towards AC as well.

PMcP: What?!

ATA: Surely not!

Ruharg: Ha ha, yes, I know, it’s out of character. You know I’ve always liked Morgoth-led teams, and Ancalagon is definitely one of my favorite players, but just looking at the matchup…

PMcP: Go ahead and get specific, Ruharg, tell us what you see.

Ruharg: Well, AC actually has a defender that can provide some match for Ancalagon’s speed and size, with their Balrog, and Fingolfin is a fabulous athlete and should be able to shut down the primary make-things-happen man, Telvildo. And at the other end I just don’t think Angband is prepared for the four-headed attack of AC.

ATA: That’s what I saw making the difference. Eol and Feanor are so similar—Feanor is obviously on a skill level by himself, but they play the same with the creativity and ability to keep the ball on a string. To shut down the offense you have to stop both of them, and then Angrod and Aegnor seem to really work well with them.

PMcP: Yes, I thought it was a good call letting Beren go and bringing in the brothers. Sometimes quantity outdoes quality.

ATA: And let’s not pretend that those two are low quality either. Perhaps not individually on Beren’s level, but they aren’t far, and there are two of them.

Ruharg: I agree—Angband would have a better shot at shutting them down if they only had three to worry about rather than four.

PMcP: Well then, let’s get on to Real Valinor versus Tirion.

Ruharg: I thought from the start that the defending champs had a free pass to the quarterfinals.

ATA: Not so fast—I think Tirion won’t be easy.

PMcP: But you do think Real wins?

ATA: *sigh* I guess, but I don’t want to sound like it’ll be a romp. I think the three sons of Feanor at the rear will be, with their skill-set and experience, uniquely qualified to put the brakes on Miriel and Nerdanel. If Real is going to score I think they’ll need Orome to show up in a big way.

PMcP: And what about Tirion’s attack?

ATA: The trio of Finwe-Aredhel-Mahtan has to be respected. Now, I think Real can shut them down about as well as anyone if they commit to it in front of Tulkas, but that will detract even more from their offense if Tilion and midfielders have to be defense-first. I think all of this adds up to a low-scoring affair.

Ruharg: I’ll believe it when I see it.

PMcP: How about the other Valinor, FC, playing against Misty Mts.

ATA: If there’s a first-round blowout, this is where it happens.

Ruharg: I won’t say that. Misty has earned enough of my respect. I’ll say they put up a fight and frustrate FC a bit. But yes, FC wins in the end.

PMcP: Why a blowout, Ar-Tar?

ATA: Caradhras, William, and the Watcher aren’t known to be the most mobile defenders. They match up better against size and power. What chance in the world do they have with Curufin, Celegorm, Yavanna, and Argon running at them?

Ruharg: But perhaps won’t Durin’s Bane and company be able to keep pace?

ATA: Between Eonwe and Thorondor that threat will be erased, and Maglor is more than a match for any of the other attackers.

PMcP: Okay, what do you guys think of Eriador versus Barad-Dur?

Ruharg: An intensely meaningful and interesting game, Elrond against Sauron. Both of them have been trying to stretch their investment influence, and in the future I imagine they and their business partners will be seriously sparring over influence in the Misty Mts and perhaps Wilderland.

ATA: Much of that will depend upon how successful their current squads are.

PMcP: Quite right, and that’s what makes this important. It’ll be a few extra million to the winner.

Ruharg: I figure it’ll be low scoring—

ATA: No surprises there.

Ruharg: Indeed. And frankly I’m at a loss to predict a winner. I suppose I’ll go with Barad-Dur because of Sauron as the x-factor, but I don’t feel good about it.

PMcP: How is he going to score all alone against an Arda-class keeper and a fine defense in front of him?

Ruharg: That’s why I don’t feel good about it. But I don’t like Eriador’s chances of scoring either, not with the two Blue Wizards now hanging about.

ATA: My tie-breaker is the midfields—I think Eriador’s will get them more chances, whereas Sauron won’t see much of the ball.

PMcP: That’s where I ended up with my picks. So how about Nargothrond versus Hithlum?

Ruharg: This ought to be an extremely entertaining view. Both offenses should be able to overrun the opposition.

PMcP: How many goals in the game?

Ruharg: I’ll say six.

ATA: That sounds about right.

PMcP: Who wins? Adanel, Mortakh, Haldan, and Arvagil all went with Hithlum, but Glain, Mortakh, and I have picked Nargothrond.

Ruharg: Nargothrond. When Hithlum gets it they just try and score, but Nargothrond is more flexible with building their attacks, and I think their ability to morph out of the break-neck pace and control things will work to their advantage.

ATA: I think the opposite—I think Hithlum’s attitude of attacking without hesitation will lead to more goals, plain and simple. And Ruharg is just picking Nargothrond because of Glaurung anyway.

Ruharg: Har har.

PMcP: All-righty, let’s move on to Tol-In-Gaurhoth versus Gondolin.

ATA: I think Gondolin can score on TIG. They’re crafty and good tactical ball-movers—

Ruharg: Where’s the “but”?

ATA: Ha ha, yes, BUT—Gondolin won’t be able to stop TIG from scoring. They just don’t have enough at the back.

Ruharg: Exactly. TIG will play longball after longball and the Wolves and Thuringwethil will win enough to create a few chances, and from those chances they’ll score enough to win.

PMcP: So we’re all in agreement there. How about the final game, Anduin versus Armenelos.

ATA: Predictably I’m going with my home city. I think Armenelos will dominate the midfield and possession, and Boromir and Eorl won’t be able to impose their will on anyone. And at the back I think Anduin will be outmatched.

Ruharg: Slow your roll, there—I don’t think Celeborn or Fram will feel outmatched, and Felarof is always useful at getting up high for headers and blocking lanes. I can see that Armenelos will probably own possession, but I don’t think they’ll score easily. And Grimbeorn—frankly I like his chances of scoring off a set piece or off a corner.

PMcP: So you’re picking them?

Ruharg: Yes, Anduin for the win.

PMcP: Well, there we are, just in time—we made it through all the first round playoff games. Enjoy watching, you two, and of course everyone else out there listening. We’ll be back in a few days to discuss how tragically wrong or geniusly correct our picks were.

Ruharg: The latter referring to me, of course.

ATA: *chuckle* I suppose stranger things have happened.

PMcP: Now, now, you ought to know it’s too early to gloat.

Ruharg: And you ought to know that now is the only time to gloat—we never make it through with unblemished picks!

*laughter*

PMcP: Well, we’ll see if anyone can break that streak this year. Have a good one.

ATA: Thanks.

Ruharg: See you later.