Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Holbalysis

Holbytlass, Day One.

#18.

Originally Posted by Holby

i have been gone long in my travels and only now return.
some are known but most aren't.

i did want to come to the village square and say hello before returning to my humble abode and unpack and think and become paranoid and....

#33

how 'bout voting for these confusing debaters of the "rule of three"-too bad we cant "lynch of three"

highly suspect
Shasta
Nerwen
Green
Boro
Steve

very suspect
Kath
Dun
Cop

much suspect
Lottie
Echo
Legate
Lommy

innocent
McCobbler


it should be plainly obvious my reasonings!!

Echo believed this list was arranged according to number of syllables in the players’ names. Holby’s next posts tends to support this.

Originally Posted by Holby

don't like abstaining voters, esp day 1 where any reason is mostly justified because it is day 1.

the wagon jumping done here by legate and little green to lommie's suspicions of copper is unsettling. [arranging suspect list to first letter of names]

So... one of those Holby “suspects” here is an innocent (Legate). It’s a common enough wolf-ploy to pair one’s fellow’s name with that of an innocent, and that could have been what she did here. Or not. It would be quite a stretch to call it an actual point against Greenie.

Originally Posted by Holby

a three way tie!?!

++LEGATE

since out of the three hes suspicious to me

This was the third vote for Legate, bringing him to a tie with Kath. Other candidates were Cop (2 votes) and me (1 vote). Note that Holby’s stated intention here is to break the tie (as was Lottie’s in voting for Kath). If we take that at face-value, then their votes crossed and Holby did not realise Kath had just got a third vote. However, Holby’s vote is timestamped two minutes after Lottie’s.

Where am I going with this? Not sure... just looking for signs of our known wolf showing a preference for one candidate over another. Hmmn. Inconclusive, I’d say.

Holbytlass, Day Two
#130. Post consists entirely of the “Stick out tongue” emoticon, in response to a comment of Lottie’s (#101) the Day before. Not very informative, but it does rather sum up Holby’s attitude!

#133.

Originally Posted by Holby

ooh, good thinking-even if i'm on the list

but then they will start looking at me..buts its helpful no matter what..but i hate people looking at me..we must find sorcers and kill them..cant we just leave,again..?

is this a subtle protection from those in league?

yes, maybe if one checks out #21 and #30, could be deflection..ooh using fancy words-and i just said that..but i was agreeing

must huddle and think and look at others

Um... Holby is an actual flesh-and-blood person, right? Not, say a sock-puppet of Nilp’s, by any chance?
Anyway, #21 and #30 are two Day one posts of mine. I’m not sure what she’s getting at, though– I think the idea is supposed to be that Lottie and I (and Coppermirror?) are packmates, raising points against each other only to dismiss them, or something like that.

Then Holby vanished for a long while, and voting happened.

When she returned, the tally run thus:

Boro -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Cop
Kath -> Cop (2)
Lommy -> Nerwen
Greenie -> Cop (3)
Lottie -> Holby
McCaber -> Holby (2)
Cop -> Holby (3)

Holby then cast her own, final vote:

Originally Posted by Holby

++ Nerwn

Apart from the fact that this “Nerwn”, whoever she may be, is not listed among the players, the vote isn’t even bolded. And yet Cop already had three votes. Had Holby resigned herself to death? But why? With only two players left to vote, she might well have survived if she voted Cop.

Obviously, this looks pretty bad for Coppermirror. This may, however, have been the idea (i.e. Holby thought she hadn’t long regardless, and thought it worth it to implicate an innocent). Or she may have panicked/lost count of the votes. Or just not cared. Very hard to know what Holby’s aims were at any point, really.

[Nerwen]

Oh yes–

I haven’t finished with you, yet, Mr Eonwe.

This is what you actually said, earlier in the Day (my bolding):

Originally Posted by Steve

I do think it should be addressed though.

If the sorcerers thought Echo was a seer, then Cop and Greenie are the most obvious answers for possible wolves (which funnily enough have topped my suspicion list since D1, but I won't let that cloud this post). Of course, it would also be risky to kill with such links - though Echo was enigmatic, Cop was next to Holby in the suspicious list, and Greenie a step below (and also pointed at in the annotated Holby's list) - though maybe not as risky as being found out. And of course if they're not, the sorcerers could just want to frame them.


On the other hand, it could be a 'let-them-think-we-think-Echo's-a-seer' kill, in which case it points to Kath. If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely, so by killing Echo, Kath makes herself look amazingly innocent (i.e. makes us think the wolves thought her innocent).

Here it is, plain and clear: you stated that Echo’s death potentially implicated three players (with “Holby as sorcerer” being the least likely “dream”).

I took the (considerable) trouble to examine the evidence in some detail, in the course of this demonstrating why it didn’t actually support your conclusions.

This, according to you, is a highly sinister course of action, not to mention useless, since–

Originally Posted by Eonwe

we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely.

Who’s “we"? You certainly hadn’t.