Arda Cup Football 2013

[Boromir88]

Nutty, nutty week and hopefully it's not too anti-climatic but really need to get the scores up so we can all get moving on the next round. Stories will be filled in by tomorrow:

Anduin 1-2 Armenelos
on target 6-5
tot shots 13-11
GOALS:
*51, 0-1 TarAncalimon (ArAdunakhor)
*70, 0-2 Elros (ArPharazon)
*88, 1-2 Eorl (Boromir II)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Anduin- Fram
*Armenelos- Tar Calmacil

Next match: Quarterfinal Armenelos vs. TIG in their first rematch since the thrilling Bronze medal game of 2008. When TIG walked away with a controversial 3-2 victory.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Bracket:


Power Rank:



(Teams in bold are group leaders; teams in italics are eliminated.)

Greatest gain:

• +5 Valimar, Armenelos
• +4 Barad-dûr
• +1 Tol-in-Gaurhoth, Hithlum, Eriador, Arnor

Greatest loss:

• -7 Angband, Nargothrond, Gondolin
• -3 Tirion
• -2 Misty Mts

The Power Ranking is based on the aggregate of offensive and defensive ranking, combined with the adjusted goal difference rank of each team. The listed offensive and defensive rankings are from the actual numbers by the teams, and not adjusted. Ties are broken by a) win-draw-loss record; and b) goal difference.

The offensive ranking is based on the goals scored throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) greater number of shots made on target; and b) greater number of shots made.

The defensive ranking is based on the goals allowed throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) least number of shots allowed on target; and b) least number of shots allowed.

Top Individual Performers:
(Players in italics are from eliminated teams.)

GOALS + ASSISTS

5+1
Túrin (Hithlum)

4+2
Curufin (FC Valinor)

4+1
Arien (Valimar)

4+0
Scatha (Wilderland)
Glaurung (Nargothrond)

3+2
Hador (Hithlum)
Eöl (AC Beleriand)
Maeglin (Gondolin)

3+1
Maedhros (Inter Beleriand)
Sauron (Barad-dûr)
Argon (FC Valinor)
Ar-Pharazôn (Armenelos)
Ancalagon (Angband)
Fëanor (AC Beleriand)
Tuor (Gondolin)

2+3
Finrod (Nargothrond)

1+3
Míriel (Real Valinor)
Yavanna (FC Valinor)


GOALKEEPING

• 88.89% – 08/09 – Huan (FC Valinor)
• 87.50% – 14/16 – Tulkas (Real Valinor)
• 84.62% – 11/13 – Elrond (Eriador)
• 83.33% – 20/24 – Tar-Atanamir (Armenelos)
• 83.33% – 10/12 – ShastaWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)

[the phantom]

MESPN Quarterfinal Round Table
Live from Armenelos

Philip McPhantom: The playoffs are in full swing, and we’re here to discuss the past and predict the future. I’m Philip McPhantom, MESPN Lead Football Coordinator, and with me I have the dragon Ruharg the Red, the lead sports editor of Monster Magazine, and Ar-Tar-Aradil, sports writer for Westernesse Weekly and president of the Numenorean Association for the Advancement of Football.

Ruharg: Greetings.

Ar-Tar-Aradil: Good to be here.

P McPhantom: We’re here in Armenelos, one of the two sites for the quarterfinals. But before we set up those matchups, why don’t we reflect back to the first round. Starting from the top—what did you think about Valimar’s victory over Arnor?

Ar-Tar-Aradil: We pretty much nailed this one. I remember Ruharg and I were very much in agreement that Arnor would try to play nice and slow things down, but that Arien would wreck the plans.

Ruharg: Yes, I felt good about that one when I saw the score line. And viewing firsthand, you saw what we expected?

Ar-Tar-A: Indeed I did—Arnor managed to avoid cards and they kept Witch King hidden a bit so as not to arouse the wrath of the Valar. All in all it was quite a good gameplan and well executed, but Valimar was just better.

PMcPhantom: We’ll move on to what may have been the biggest match of round 1, AC Beleriand vs Angband.

Ruharg: Another one I had right. And Ar-Tar had it as well, though I was more correct if I may say so.

ATA: That’s fair—I did say AC would win “solidly”, and it ended up being a closer fight.

R: Well, before the tournament these two I had rated as the top two, so I figured it would be close.

PMcP: What made the difference in the end?

R: That quartet up front for AC just created too many chances to be denied forever.

ATA: It really says something of them, because Angband’s defense was quite good.

PMcP: It was definitely fun to watch—fantastic play on both sides. And now let’s move on to the other overtime game, Real over Tirion.

ATA: Now this one I was the one more correct than Ruharg.

R: Heh heh… yes, I don’t believe I’ve ever felt so foolish on a correct prediction.

PMcP: Ah, that’s right—you both said Real would win, but Ar-Tar said it’d be tight and low-scoring, whereas Ruharg—

ATA: I believe his words were “free pass to the quarterfinals”.

R: Now, now, do you have to start pulling out direct quotes?

ATA: Ha ha, sorry. I’m just feeling so good about seeing this ahead of time.

PMcP: Indeed, it seemed that Tirion was in fact uniquely equipped to slow down Real. The Sons of Feanor nicely hamstringed their mother and grandmother for most of the match.

R: But they got it done in the end. Good effort and perseverance.

PMcP: How about the other Valinor match?

R: I just watched the replay of it this morning, and it was… weird.

ATA: That’s what I thought. FC really seemed to rein things in that second half, and I wouldn’t think they’d be the ones to do that.

R: Yeah, once they had Misty on their heels I figured they’d go for the throat, but it was as if they weren’t getting any joy out of it or something.

PMcP: I wonder if this is a more serious squad this year after that infamous upset last year after they were looking so unbeatable.

ATA: Yes, perhaps they were looking at injury risk and not getting themselves tired out for the next round etc. plus just wanting to prove to themselves that they could decide to shut down an opponent and then do it.

PMcP: How about the big shootout match?

R: I got it wrong. We were right that it would be low-scoring, but I bet on Sauron.

ATA: I bet on Eriador’s midfield, on the other hand, and lo and behold the midfielder NogWight comes through in the shootout.

R: Sauron had to be upset about that one, seeing as Nog nearly signed with Barad-Dur before the season, but elected to go with Eriador instead.

ATA: It begs the question—would Barad-Dur be going through if they had signed NogWolf?

PMcP: Just goes to show that every signing matters. Now how about Hithlum and Nargothrond?

ATA: We definitely had it right that there would be heavy scoring.

R: Unfortunately I had Nargothrond scoring more. And really as I watched that match I found myself wondering why on earth I didn’t take Hithlum. Nargothrond had Turin, Hurin, Beleg, and Hador running at them. How could they not give up 5 goals?

ATA: Ha ha, I know what you mean. That’s why I went with Hithlum. If a team doesn’t have an A-level defense then they’re toast.

PMcP: You guys both were right on TIG and Gondolin.

Ruharg: Yes—Gondolin just couldn’t handle the attack, though it was nice to see that they made TIG work at the back, and even scored on them once.

ATA: It made the game much more interesting with Gondolin grabbing the early score, but in the end it seemed inevitable that TIG had it.

PMcP: Last game—Anduin and Armenelos.

R: And this one officially made this round a bad one for me. Barad-Dur, Nargothrond, and Anduin all lost, which puts me at 5 and 3.

ATA: I’ve lost track of things—you don’t happen to know my record, do you?

R: You know good and well how it stands.

PMcP: Yes, Ar-Tar, let’s not pretend to be modest, go on and blow your own horn.

ATA: Well, since I have your permission—I went 8 and 0 in the first round! Well done, me!

R: Well, you were bound to pick Armenelos, seeing as you’re from there.

ATA: Now now, I gave tactical reasons as well.

PMcP: Why don’t we go ahead and give predictions for the next round, and see if Ar-Tar can stay perfect, or if Ruharg and catch up to him…

ATA: I was waffling for a bit on AC versus Valimar-

R: Oh come on, how can you be unsure on that one!

ATA: It isn’t as easy as that! Valimar has been very sharp, and Arien’s scoring touch makes them more dangerous than ever.

R: But look at their defense. They just don’t have the right personnel to contain that AC offense.

ATA: But there’s always a chance for some righteous rage, which really ups their level. I mean—AC does have a Balrog on the squad, and that could set them off.

PMcP: Are you justifying picking Valimar, or justifying waffling on choosing AC?

R: Ha ha! He’s probably overthinking things trying to preserve his perfect record.

ATA: I’m just saying it won’t be a blowout.

R: But you’re choosing AC, right?

ATA: Yes, yes, I’m picking them. But only by a goal.

R: I’d guess 3-1.

PMcP: Well, that’s a clean sweep of picks there. How about the battle of the Valinors?

R: Now this match deserves some waffling.

ATA: Indeed! And what a great matchup! Everyone’s been looking forward to this.

PMcP: Indis will likely end up on Miriel quite a bit—the wives of Finwe doing battle. And then Maglor will be asked to take his mum out of the equation from time to time. Then two of the most dangerous defenders to make a run forward will be on the field, Eonwe and Tilion, and two fantastic keepers in Huan and Tulkas…

R: Anticipation is half the fun, isn’t it?

ATA: *sigh* But we have to choose between them…

PMcP: I’ll go ahead and volunteer that I have FC.

ATA: So do I. With those defenders and keeper they are able to slow down opponents without having to over-commit, and if the opposition dares to try and win a numbers battle up front they are just asking for Curufin to score on a counter.

R: But Nahar and Nienna will be back there to stop him, and Ingwion and Tilion will be close behind marking his outlets. Really I don’t think there’s an advantage to be gained here, so the difference will be the experience and will to win—advantage to the defending champions.

PMcP: While I agree with that statement to an extent, that they would have that intangible edge against every squad in the field, I don’t think they have it against FC. FC and Real have played three times and Real has never won. I think FC just has their number, and perhaps it is in Real’s head at this point.

R: I disagree. Real’s best result, a draw, is the most recent, so I believe they have faith in themselves, and believe that they are now due for a win.

PMcP: We’ll see. And now onto Eriador and Hithlum.

ATA: Opposing strengths for certain. Elrond is so good between the posts, and he organizes things well in front of him, and he has great players to work with at the back.

R: Yes, Gil-galad, Aragorn, Arwen, Asfaloth… Most every squad would envy a back line like that, but, but- look at who is attacking them this round.

ATA: Turin, Hurin, Beleg, and Hador, and of course Morwen, Balrog, and Aradan lending support from time to time. I agree—that’s scary stuff.

PMcP: Who emerges as the victor then?

ATA: I see this match as being a product of the opposite matchup—Eriador’s offense versus Hithlum’s defense. I think the Balrog will have to lend heavy help to contain Glorfindel, so that takes him out of the other end.

R: But I see Galdor and Gundor doing decently against Isildur and Arveleg, and with Arroch there to lend help doesn’t Hithlum stack up pretty well?

ATA: NogWight and the other midfielders will push the advantage back to Eriador. They’re too good to discount, and their offense is flexible enough to allow scoring to come in from anywhere depending on what the defense is doing. They’ll get numbers on Hithlum, because we all know that the Hithlum attackers won’t want to help at the back, as they’re always waiting for counters.

R: Which they will get, and that’s how they’ll score.

ATA: I think the back four and Elrond can handle it. They play off-the-ball defense very intelligently, and Elrond himself is always good for a miracle save or two. I’ll say Eriador 2-1, perhaps in overtime.

R: Hithlum 2-1.

PMcP: All right then, on to the final contest, Armenelos against Tol-In-Gaurhoth.

R: Picking your home friends again, Ar-Tar?

ATA: If they should win I would be quite overcome with joy, but no, sadly I cannot bring myself to pick them.

PMcP: Well, I’m the only one then. I figured Armenelos’ patience and execution might be what it takes to tempt the aggressive monsters into making mistakes.

R: That’ll be the gameplan I figure, but I think TIG has enough to overcome. Their Wights are wily and tactical, so they won’t be caught off guard, and I think the same is true of Thuringwethil. I think they’ll bring enough coolness and stability to keep such a plan from working to its full potential.

ATA: Plus there is the pure play-making ability of the Wolves. I just figure there will be a time where Armenelos plays things perfectly and TIG just one-ups them with sheer athleticism and power.

R: I can see that happening as well, but I do see McP’s point—if Armenelos can minimize those opportunities, and one of the defender Wolves gets too hot-headed…

PMcP: Exactly. I see this coming down to the play of the Werewolves at the back. I think Armenelos will be looking to get one of them carded out of the game.

ATA: Oh, definitely they’ll be looking to force such an issue, and I hope they can, but I just think TIG is working too well this season, thus 2-1 to them.

R: I picked the same.

PMcP: Well all right, we’ve made it through all the games. Now we just sit back and see what happens, and enjoy all the drama and play-making. We’ll be back before the semis to do this again!

ATA: Can’t wait.

Ruharg: Enjoy the football.

[Nogrod]

The quarterfinals will be really tough – and superbly hard to predict. But here’s the AKM’s shortish take on them.


Valimar vs. AC Beleriand

Some Valimar players had publicly hoped to meet Angband in the quarterfinal to “kick Morgoth out of the tournament” but there was probably another reason as well for their desire, and that is the fact that AC Beleriand looks clearly the more dangerous team of the two – and Fëanor sure is a thorn on the leading Valar’s side as much as Morgoth is – but in a way more annoying to them.

The stats seem to favour AC Beleriand – and one can’t say Valimar would have had a harder tournament before this game. Actually one might claim the opposite: that AC Beleriand has made their superior stats in slightly tougher matches than Valinor.

So the AKM thinks AC Beleriand to be the favourites to win the game, even if the margin isn’t that great and many things will affect the outcome beside what the games already played can tell – like the possibility Manwë will step up their game just because it’s the “Fëanor clan” they’re opposing. And you can never underestimate Arien, if she’s on fire – if you forgive the bad pun.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins 2-1


Real Valinor vs. FC Valinor

Some analysts and fans alike think the game between the two Valinors is the moral championship-game – that had the grouping been different these two teams would have only met in the final, implying that they would both have been able to beat any other team on their way to the final. Now that view sure is backed by a host of facts and can’t be discredited lightly – but the AKM thinks it still is a bit premature stance. There are other teams that could pick the cup this year besides the two, especially AC Beleriand and Valimar (the upper side of the bracket that is) with maybe Hitlum or T-I-G as wild cards.

Everyone is probably familiar with the late history of the two teams but it might be worth recapitulating once more. So last year FC Valinor plainly crushed Real Valinor two times (once in friendlies, another time in the group stage) but Real Valinor were the champions in the end as Erebor kicked FC Valinor out from the competition in a penalty shoot-out in the quarterfinals. This season the teams met in the friendlies and played a draw. As it is now their stats are pretty much alike, but Real Valinor has had a tougher schedule than FC Valinor has.

So with the mutual draw behind the teams this season and Real Valinor having almost even stats from a lot tougher schedule, the AKM holds Real Valinor the favourites to win the game. But that said, there will be so much more than just stats to decide this game – the history, the personalities, the playing-styles…

The AKM predicts: the game ends in a draw 2-2, either team may make it to the semifinals but the AKM belives Tulkas will beat Huan in the penalty shoot-out.


---------


Eriador vs. Hithlum

So it is a game between a defending-machine vs. an attacking powerhouse. Many – including the AKM – have not been convinced on Eriador’s form this year. Compared to other teams through the last eight they clearly score a lot less than others while their defence isn’t that superb in comparison to other teams as to compensate it. Actually some teams defend better than Eriador… Then again Hithlum’s defences are the worst of the final eight – with seven goals allowed they have given in almost 50% more goals any other team has.

Now Eriador’s problem is taking advantage of Hithlum’s weak spot in their defence while keeping Hithlum’s hurricane for an attack at bay – while Hithlum’s challenge is to show they can open also tough defences while not letting the opponent to take advantage of their own uncomfortable areas of game.

The AKM thinks that Eriador is not able to stop Hithlum from scoring – even if Elrond will stand brave at his goal – and that their scoring skills are just that notch worse they would need to come even, not to talk of prevailing.

The AKM predicts: Hithlum wins 3-1 (or 2-0)



Tol-In-Gaurhoth vs. Armenelos

The Werewolves and Wights have been on fire this year after a few seasons of less impressive performances and at this point it is clear no team affords to take them lightly but as serious candidates to go far in this tournament. Now were they placed in the upper bracket of the tournament the AKM wouldn’t bet a lot on their survival into the finals, but located in the lower one they actually have a chance to get it even to the final – and the question is just on stamina and continuity: T-I-G sure could challenge any of the teams left on a good day, but being on the upper bracket would require them to win the best teams in a row. On the lower bracket, Gondolin and Armenlos are both quality teams, but not comparable to those on the upper bracket – and even Hithlum is kind of an “on-off” –team which can either perfotm brilliantly or just fall down, as Real Valinor so clearly showed.

That said the stats predict quite a tough and even game.

Tar Atanamir and ShastaWolf have the exact same saving percentage (83,3%) but Tar Atanamir has been tested twice as much as Shasta so there’s an edge for Armenelos as keeping that high quality tending for more shots speaks well of Tar Atanamir.

Both teams score with almost the same percentages but the T-I-G shoots more – and the T-I-G also let’s the opponent shoot less - so an edge from there to the T-I-G.

To be honest, the T-I-G hasn’t exactly met any offencive powerhouses thus far but some rather pathetic attacks (like Imladris or Anfaughlith) – but neither has Armenelos convinced anyone that they wolud be back in their former glory.

The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 2-1 (or a draw 1-1 and then anything’s possible)