WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ergo:

Wolves - Skip, Eomer and Sally or Encai, or possibly Nogrod, Lottie or me

Lovers - Wilwa and Rikae

Seer - Coppermirror (or possibly Volo)

Ranger - Eönwë

Hunter - the one of Encai and Sally that isn't a wolf, or possibly Mac


See, I solved the game purely based on ic stuff. Can I have cake now?

Going to bed now, I'm too tired to think about dynamics with a changed hunter and a werebear and their lover. You guys be good and figure it out while I sleep. I'll be back around the European noon and make more sense then.

It would be hilarious if you listed all the lions correctly here. It wouldn't even be the first time someone did that - in fact, I think a wolf has done that before.

Originally Posted by Skip

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

I can see reasons for pretty much anyone to reveal as Targaryen, if they're willing to take the risk. A Targaryen who survives a kill attempt is a known innocent, but someone who simply reveals as one will not be, as far as I'm concerned.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

Duly noted...

Edit: X'd with Encai

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can see reasons for pretty much anyone to reveal as Targaryen, if they're willing to take the risk. A Targaryen who survives a kill attempt is a known innocent, but someone who simply reveals as one will not be, as far as I'm concerned.

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

But enough of that, we have to trust the Targaryan's own judgement on this.

Would the real Targaryan please stand up?

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:

++Gil Galad

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

X:d from Boro

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:

++Gil Galad

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

X:d from Boro

Ha, I had a feeling I would get some votes on the first day because I was being talkative (I have a history of these games of either being lynched for talking too much or not talking enough) and I am a safe lynch vote at this point. But I honestly thought my defense of the bear was being rather strong and forward, and even controversial. I wanted conflict, not to be careful, and hopefully draw out some Lions. Throw caution to the wind!

Sure it is a moot point, but what else are we talking about? Which houses we belong too (which has no effect on the role detirmination of the game that I know of)?

I have an idea of who I want to vote for, but will hold off till closer to deadline time.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.

And that's all the real Targaryen could do, unless he was a)killed and b) won the coin toss. He couldn't even counter-reveal without losing his power.

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Inzil
I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

This is assuming the known ordo/Targaryan can survive through the off night. I agree with Zil. Right now there is no reason for the hunter to reveal. I'm not sure why skip thinks having the hunter step forward is good. We have a known innocent who knows as much as every ordo in this game which at this point is nothing.