WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

To be clear, my summary did not include every detail of Kitanna's posts, just the points that stuck out to me.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.

Since you keep bringing this up, I suppose I should address it. I hadn't until now because I thought it was fairly obvious that I was joking around. G55 and Eomer had been going back and forth, so I jumped in with a joke post. Lightening the mood, as it were -- we do play this game for fun, right? -- though it seems to have backfired.

I'm going to go back and attempt to summarize the posts from Inzil and Eonwe, who are my two remaining suspects.

[Encaitare]

Note: As I begin this post, there are 45 minutes left toward the deadline. So, this will not be an exhaustive post, but I will make note of things that stand out to me.

Inziladun

Page 1, notes that the Lovers can choose which side to support, and change at any time.

Page 2, says the Lions should be the main focus, not the Lovers, and agrees with Kitanna that a Cobbler is not the worst that could happen.

Page 3, says that he is leaning toward suspicion of Skip, because of the Targaryen reveal stuff, and his "seemingly easy" vote for Gil. Then votes for Skip.

Page 5: Wonders what G55 did to get the Lions' attention, saying it's probably the only useful information from the Night. Various other discussion, agreeing and disagreeing with certain people, very little new information introduced.

Page 6: Says the votes should be examined. Agrees that it's likely that a Lion voted for Skip, and repeats that killing the Lions is the priority. Is curious about Boro and Mac's votes.

Page 7: Says that out of the Skip voters, he was the first to cast suspicion on Skip.

Final thoughts on Inzil: I don't know why a "seemingly easy" vote on Day 1 is a red flag. It's Day 1, almost no one knows anything. I think it's unusual that he thinks there's little use in analyzing why the Lovers chose to kill Wilwa. Could Inzil be one of them? But if he were a Lover, that would be a clumsy thing to say...

I'm still suspicious because of his vote placement yesterDay. Now to analyze Eonwe before the deadline.

[WythDryden]

The dynamics and and complexities of this game is pretty huge. A question I have is if the bear and the lions both go after the same person in the night what happens, and how does that get resolved?

Admittedly I'm a bit overwhelmed by all the different people, and I dont think that I have the time to go back and find all the quotes to guide my suspicions, but I'll lay out the list here as my gut feels. And honestly, everyone has made so many points about each of the people here that I don't think I can really contribute more to them, even if that does make me suspicious for not contributing.

No idea:
Eönwë
A Little Green
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Coppermirror
Nogrod - Seems innocent. Exploring many options and generally putting ideas on the table.
Gil-Galad
satansaloser2005


Maybe an idea:
Kitanna
Encaitare
Thinlómien
Boromir88 - Says a lanister would let the village do the dirty work, then disappears.
Loslote
Nerwen
Rikae
Volo
Macalaure - With the poking and prodding and such of today, I'm less convinced than before that he is a lion. It seems to be the strategy to try and draw lions out of the woods, so he's looking ok here. Though I do think he could be a bear.


Squinty-eyed:
Inziladun

Ultimately I think the bear is still on the side of the villagers. Even if the kill takes an innocent they may still be operating under the intentions of trying to get a wolf. Which is why I don't think I'll be voting for Mac. Though, I'm adittedly a little afraid of voting for for Inz, in the event that he is an innocent, it may look like I'm jumping on a bandwagon there too and putting myself in a bad position. Oh well, I'm still learning as I go. Apparently I'm suspicious of more people than not. And that's subject to change.

Edit: X'd Volo

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

The dynamics and and complexities of this game is pretty huge. A question I have is if the bear and the lions both go after the same person in the night what happens, and how does that get resolved?

If they target the same person, whoever makes it there first (that is, sends their kill first) gets the credit.

If they target each other, both parties die.

(12 people left to vote, Lommy - did you forget to count yourself again? )

[Nogrod]

Bah... it's like everyone except Mac, Volo and maybe Skip whom G55 kind of "does not mention"...

That said, I might be ready to consider Kit among a few others. Adding the point Lommy & Greenie have brought fore about people defending her it might be a decent try.

Can you say who have done that defending though? I think I have no time to go for checking that - but if you two or one of you had a clearer idea than just "people have been" defending her?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Can you say who have done that defending though? I think I have no time to go for checking that - but if you two or one of you had a clearer idea than just "people have been" defending her?

I checked people who have made points in her favour are: Mac, Cop, Encai, you, Rikae.


edit: xed with everyone, wow

[Encaitare]

As with my previous post, I won't cover everything here, but make note of the things that stand out.

Eonwe

Page 4, first and only post of the Day. Discusses the possibility of a Targaryen reveal, including what if a Lover and a Lion both fake-reveal. Votes for Skip and says this:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

And since I wouldn't expect a fellow lion to start a concrete vote against one when the feeling was already against one, if he is one, I suppose this'll make Lottie look innocent.

This is confusingly phrased and took me a minute to parse. I think he means that Lottie wouldn't start a vote against Skip if they were both Lions, so that if Skip turned out to be a Lion, Lottie would appear innocent. But initially the phrase "fellow lion" struck me as a slip of the tongue.

Page 7, clarifies something he said about a false-reveal Targaryen potentially buying an extra day of life. Lists his general feelings, is most suspicious of Boro and Inzil.

Final thoughts on Eonwe: He hasn't really done enough posting for me to get a vibe off of him. I still feel that one of the Lions voted to kill Skip, but I'm not leaning toward this one.

[WythDryden]

++Inzil

[Nogrod]

Do I recollect it wrong, but didn't someone make the same point just a moment ago that if X then Lottie would look better?

No time to check or grandiously revise my opinions now, but let that be checked toMorrow...


EDIT: Referring to Encai's post two above this one here...

[Nogrod]

I was ready to lynch Mac yesterDay before Skip as the wagon looked so spurious (actually Eönwë's late joining was the deciding thing and didn't gain the attention it deserved - fault also on me in that, as I only just remembered it now).

Now I'm a bit torn that we have the same candidates as yesterDay up front... yesterDay I would have felt fine but now it seems many are also sticking to Zil as an easy vote as well.

Blah.

[Nogrod]

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)
Wyth -> Zil (3)
Zil -> Mac (2)
Gil -> Mac (3)
Enca -> Zil (4)
Mac -> Inzil (5)
Greenie -> MAc (4)

[Boromir88]

If Kit's a lion I'll flay myself...

Just got super busy at work, but the short of it
1) she's been just vocal enough to appear helpful, but not so vocal as to draw too much attention
2) she seemed very chummy D1, especially with Eomer
3) her vote for Nogrod looked very safe to me

These are reasons a blind know-nothing (but well intentioned) person has to give...there's no other choice when you truly have no special knowledge. It's the same reasons Skip's vote, as much as I didn't agree with the read he got of Gil, looked innocent.

Lions have special knowledge, they can manipulate the lynch, use rivalries and houses against each other. There is far more scheming and reasons behind their voting (of course the best lions will hide their intentions well)...Point being, if Kit is a wolf, trying to get attention off of her mate Mac, she could have done a much better job than giving a flimsy reasoned vote to try to set up Enca as another choice.

I'm saying lions were fully involved in that Mac-Inzil showdown yesterday...

[Boromir88]

Oh right...

*vanishes*

[Thinlómien]

Maybe the wolves killed Volo to baffle us. I can't think of a reason why they'd go for him, because at least to me Volo didn't give any gifted vibes, and almost as little bearish vibes. Maybe Nogrod has a point though and the wolves thought Volo was a bear/lover because of his pro-bear attitude?

Our best lead toDay, however, is definitely not Volo but Mac. I'm personally quite impressed by the fact that he managed to convince half of the village (yours truly included) that he's the werebear. Since he was a wolf, though, we have a nice bunch of data to analyze to see who might be his fellows. I'll get to that at some point today.

Why is Kitanna again trying to steer the discussion to the lovers' motivations instead of those of the wolves' by lengthily analyzing Nerwen? This combined with the fact that Mac was one of the ones to side with her yesterDay looks very fishy to me.

And Boro has reappeared? Good.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But if there was someone who tried to save Mac (on top of Mac himself and now known innocent Volo), then that person is Encaitare. Her vote-placement looks pretty bad indeed.

Agreed. That combined with her non-committal posting doesn't really look too good to me.

Originally Posted by Boro

So she does the only thing she can do...try to argue Mac vs Inzil will lead us no where and we should drop it to look some place else.

Well I'm glad you guys didn't listen to me, because Mac vs Inzil did definitely lead somewhere. (I'm not entirely sure people should listen to me at all in this game, given that I managed to vote the seer on Day1. ) That said, I didn't honestly think Mac with his odd chaotic behavior would be a wolf, rather the werebear or an ordo, and lynching the werebear when all the wolves were still alive wasn't my choice number one. As I didn't find Inzil particularly suspicious either, what should I have done? When I voted, there were still quite a few people who hadn't voted yet, many of whom suspected for example Kitanna whom I found and still find very fishy. (And before we know her role, you can't say she would've been any worse a choice, unless you have more information than you should.)

Originally Posted by Boro

Point being, if Kit is a wolf, trying to get attention off of her mate Mac, she could have done a much better job than giving a flimsy reasoned vote to try to set up Enca as another choice.

Flimsy-reasoned? As far as I recall, quite many people were finding Enca suspicious, and she even got a couple of more votes.

Okay, so either Boro and Kit are lovers, or Borowolf is going a bit too far in latching onto Kit who he knows is innocent. This does not fit with my theory that Wilwa dreamt of innocent!Boro though. But seriously, I don't understand at all why Boro has suddenly decided to become Kitanna's knight in shining armour, again when really hasn't been that much suspicion against her. (Notable also that he attacks me, the person who has probably suspected Kitanna the most.)

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Do I recollect it wrong, but didn't someone make the same point just a moment ago that if X then Lottie would look better?

No time to check or grandiously revise my opinions now, but let that be checked toMorrow...


EDIT: Referring to Encai's post two above this one here...

Could be, I'm not sure. I brought this up not because of Lottie, but because the use of the phrase "fellow lion" in Eonwe's post made me wonder if he was a Lion, and slipped. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but you never know.

[A Little Green]

Again, unless I'm mistaken -

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen – Mac
Rikae – Encai
Kit – Encai (2)
Wyth – Inzil (3)
Inzil – Mac (2)
Gil – Mac (3)

[A Little Green]

I almost feel like I'd prefer Kit over Mac after all, but bringing in yet another candidate seems a bit silly at this point.

[Thinlómien]

bah, I think this Mac-Inzil war is leading nowhere.

++Kitanna


edi: xed & fixed highlight

[A Little Green]

Ah well. I'll keep wondering about him for the rest of the game, otherwise.

++ Macalaure


EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Eönwë]

They're both kind of suspicious, but the death that I think will give us more information is:

++Mac

edit: x-ed with this page

[Encaitare]

I've explained my reasoning in other posts, but in summary, I have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the Skip bandwagon. Loslote was first and so is less suspicious to me. Kitanna has played very reasonably. Wilwa was the Seer, and Eonwe has not posted enough to give me a strong feeling either way. So that leaves...

++Inziladun

Though if Inzil turns out to be innocent, I will start to wonder about Eonwe.