WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

His vote didn't change the outcome, but did bring it to an even number of votes between the two. It's possible he voted the way he did to leave a clue, and his post certainly makes it sound that way. However, it could also be framing by the lions. Must investigate further.

I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also, it has been a long time we've had such a big game and the dynamics really look different from a basic 15-player (or smaller) village. I kind of haven't given that a real thought yet, but I think we should all consider that as well.

Logically, it's easier to lie low with more players, letting the loud ones get attention.

x'd with Nog

[Gil-Galad]

Yesterday was a fairly quiet day, but man I was glad that in the vote-war Mac was a lion. It was a close vote, even with Mac assuming he was in the clear. I would look more closely at the Zil voters, seeing as they might be Lions.

I was hoping that the night kills would bag us a lion, instead it was two rather surprising kills in the sense that Volo and Nerwen weren't really aggressive in their posts and not that involved.

x,d since zill

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.

Good point. I got ahead of myself and forgot that it'd be made clear if they were a gifted of some sort, and I looked back at the post to see that he is labelled ordo.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I took his "last minute votes will be revealing" to mean something along the lines of "who is going to try to save Mac?" He made that post and Mac was in the lead. Though Volo voted Zil, tying them at 6 each, so I don't know if that can even be assumed of the statement.

That's a good angle I hadn't considered. Though, with only one minute to spare and most of the people who had been active yesterDay had already voted at that point, there wasn't much time left for someone jump in to save him necessarily. Also, if they had it's pretty flashy and puts them in a position to be suspected. The same could've possibly been made for Volo himself if hadn't been killed in the night revealing his identity.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

Good point. I got ahead of myself and forgot that it'd be made clear if they were a gifted of some sort, and I looked back at the post to see that he is labelled ordo.

And as our Seer is dead and gone (and our ranger hasn't saved anyone), so there is none with any special knoweldge about anymore the lions could have gone after trying to read hints from the posting on D1 & D2 - well the lovers to be sure, but yeah... that's the stinger - did they think him the Bear or not?

As I said - and Inzil agreed - it would be quite reckless from a Bear to go on doing that kind of hinting... but why kill him then?

Did the lions think him the hunter who tried to lure them into attacking him at Night and though they'd better take their chances with the hunter now than later when the hunter might become a more formidable threat?

Anyway. Volo talked about the lovers (and the bear especially) a lot and insisted we should forge an alliance with them. He even said: “I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with”.

Late yesterDay he argued though, that Mac is the Bear and said we should not lynch the Bear, and added also that Mac had contributed (so it's not anymore a reason to not lynch a Bear but not lynch Mac) - then he also tried to avoid the lynching of Mac in practise by his vote - and added these:

Originally Posted by Volo's two last posts

Last minute votes will be revealing.

Well, Mac didn't do a last minute reveal, so we didn't go too wrong - or right, I guess.

So the lions killed the one who tried to save one of them?

There is something fishy in here, but I can't say what.

What is it I have forgotten?

[Nogrod]

Voting Day2

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)
Wyth -> Inzil (3)
Zil -> Mac (2)
Gil -> Mac (3)
Enca -> Inzil (4)
Mac -> Inzil (5)
Greenie -> Mac (4)
Lommy -> Kitanna
Nog -> Mac (5)
Eönwë -> Mac (6)
Volo -> Inzil (6)


Things I think can be read from the voting-tally...


Eönwë most probably isn't a lion. That would have been totally unnecessary from him compared to fex. failing to vote or voting someone else and hoping for the best.

I also find it hard to think Greenie would be in cahoots with Mac looking at the instrumental nature of her vote on Mac.


Gil could of course be a Lannister giving a lion-on-lion vote - but I'd not put that high on my list of probabilities unless I had other reasons to believe it to be so. Zil again could have been trying to rid himself of suspicion he had gathered quite a lot and voted for a mate to clean his image... but that also, I think requires other information or reasons to suspect him than the vote.


But if there was someone who tried to save Mac (on top of Mac himself and now known innocent Volo), then that person is Encaitare. Her vote-placement looks pretty bad indeed.


Lommy's vote is a kind of "washing my hands from this mess" -vote. It could be both ways: a frustrated innocent unhappy with the options given or a frustrated lion trying to escape bad choices...


EDIT: X'd with the three above

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lommy's vote is a kind of "washing my hands from this mess" -vote. It could be both ways: a frustrated innocent unhappy with the options given or a frustrated lion trying to escape bad choices...

Now that's interesting, the read I get off of Lommy's posts yesterday is the same, trying to turn focus off of Mac and Inzil. Could be she's an innocent who thought 2 other innocents were going after each other...it's not like we're unfamiliar with those situations. What does an innocent Lommy gain by casting a "washing my hands from this mess" vote? Other than pumping up her honour in staying out of a mess between two innocents. But we know it's a fact one of them was a lion.

How would a Lannister-Lommy vote, I wonder?...I mean in that situation where it seems clear between either Inzil or Mac. Why not protect herself and throw Mac under the bus? Or if she feels family actually means something, how could she vote for a fellow lion? If that's the case, why not try to help Mac by voting and likely getting Inzil lynched? Unless she already painted herself into a corner earlier in the day...when she declared Inzil has been acting like a normal Inzil:

Inzil - people keep suspecting him but I think he looks the same as always. Which of course doesn't mean anything since he's probably been wolf half of the games I've played in.

She can't vote for Inzil...not after having made those statements. Or well she could have, but she couldn't without arousing suspicions that she's trying to save Mac. So she does the only thing she can do...try to argue Mac vs Inzil will lead us no where and we should drop it to look some place else.

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

She ended up voting for Mac, which was no real surprise. She mentioned him the most. She was also the first to vote him. I'm actually surprised the lions didn't target her.

We don't know that the lions DIDN'T target her, we just know the bear got there first if they did.

[Rikae]

Well, that was lucky - I say lucky, because I, and I think most, thought Mac was "just" a bear. I'm kind of sad to see him go, though - he seemed so happy to be playing again (I thought it might have been in part because of a special role).

I imagine the race between Mac and Inzil will be revealing, either with lion-on-lion or some desperate jumping on the Inzil-wagon, and I want to take a close look at it later tonight or tomorrow; right now I don't have much time. I still don't think Gal was a suspected seer, since others went after Mac more than she did. Volo might have been - or the meme might have made him look like a bear or hunter. I'm not sure why the lions would be going after hunter-hints, especially when this hunter is less dangerous to them than most with a 50% chance to do nothing, but maybe they have nothing better to go on.

Nerwen was somewhat suspected, as was Wilwa. Perhaps the bear is trying to kill lions after all, but we can't be sure of that. The lovers may just be going for kills they think will throw the village off their trail in some way. I'll have to give this more thought.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.
B

*A familiar voice re-emerges out of the shadows and speaks as if his absence was never noticed. But in truth was he ever absent?*

But the lions who killed him wouldn't have known he was an ordo when they killed him last night. Obviously they wouldn't fear he had any special knowledge with the seer gone, but either they killed him to set you up as a lynch candidate today or you're hoping no one starts suspecting some lion-on-lion voting. Set up an early kinslaying to make one of you look better? Convenient the seer isn't in the way anymore to check. Also even more convenient it was the bear that got wilwa.

Even I must admit I laughed at Wyth's observation about my disappearance yesterday.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

The best theories I can come up with on why the lovers went after Nerwen are
1) Mac fell under suspicion D1, so maybe the lovers thought Nerwen was a lion throwing her teammate under the bus in an attempt to look good and helpful to the village.
2) The lovers have chosen an alliance and it isn't in favor of the village.

The first is the more likely. The numbers favor the village, and the Lovers are going to ally themselves with the side the most likely to win.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Maybe they thought he was ranger or hunter. That last statement was too odd to have gone unnoticed, and if Volo was alive I would be wondering myself if he wasn't playing a gifted role.

It's possible. But as Nog pointed out, Volo might have come in for some suspicion toDay for potentially trying to save Mac, so if your scenario is true, there must have been some pretty strong Gifted vibes around him.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

[I]But the lions who killed him wouldn't have known he was an ordo when they killed him last night. Obviously they wouldn't fear he had any special knowledge with the seer gone, but either they killed him to set you up as a lynch candidate today or you're hoping no one starts suspecting some lion-on-lion voting.

Wyth was trying to say that Volo's "clue" might have some meaning for us toDay. You're misunderstanding, or deliberately misrepresenting.

[Loslote]

What are the lions (and bear) trying to gain from their kills at this point in the game? There is no seer to try to find. Rangers are difficult to catch until after they've revealed, so the lions could only have tried to spot general "gifted vibes" which might have also pointed to a hunter (who they probably don't want to kill at this point) or a lover (who they also probably don't want to kill, since they've been benefiting from the second Night-kill thus far. So would they try to kill people who are giving off gifted vibes? I don't know that the risks are worth the reward of killing the Ranger, especially not with the second Night-kill lessening the impact of a successful Ranger-save.

The lions are also not killing people who are suspecting them. That would be a giant neon sign pointing directly at them. So what are their options at this point? They could either try to frame someone - kill someone who heavily suspected another innocent and try to get that innocent lynched because of it - or they could be killing people who have not said much about them and are about as much of a no-trace kill as you can get at this point in the game. This would be an especially helpful strategy if they had not fallen under suspicion yet, and wanted to keep their heads down and wait for the village to trim itself down further. I would suspect that that's what happened with Volo and Nerwen, which would mean that Zil is probably not a lion or a lover after all and that Lommy, Kit, and Rikae are also not lovers.

Of course, that's assuming the lions (and bear) are trying to keep their heads down, which might be a completely wrong guess. But if Volo was killed in an attempt to kill the suspicion against Zil, there were plenty of other people who had been more vocal in their distrust of him and who would have served that purpose better. As for the people Nerwen suspected, only Kit had really been suspected by anyone else, and in Kit's case, Nog or Lommy both suspected her more vocally than [b]Nerwen[b] had, so that doesn't really work either. I would guess that Volo did not suspect any lions and that Nerwen did not suspect the bear or his lover.

EDIT: xed since Boro

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

What are the lions (and bear) trying to gain from their kills at this point in the game? There is no seer to try to find. Rangers are difficult to catch until after they've revealed, so the lions could only have tried to spot general "gifted vibes" which might have also pointed to a hunter (who they probably don't want to kill at this point) or a lover (who they also probably don't want to kill, since they've been benefiting from the second Night-kill thus far. So would they try to kill people who are giving off gifted vibes? I don't know that the risks are worth the reward of killing the Ranger, especially not with the second Night-kill lessening the impact of a successful Ranger-save.

It's tricky. The Lions are served by the double-kills, yet they're also potential victims. The question is whether they think the pros of the Bear outweigh the risk.
At any rate I can't see that being what brought them to Volo last Night.