WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

Kitanna seems to try and ease pressure on Mac in a careful fashion while making a slip worthy of comparison with Mac's own slip...

It would be funny if we had a game where two lions gave themselves away with classical slips of tongue!

That's basically what I'm thinking - could it be that easy?

I'd love to do some analysis of voting, as well as take a closer look at Kitanna. Also, Boro is acting weird.

[A Little Green]

Another thing: very curious about the Volo kill. He would have been an easy target for suspicion toDay with his vote that could have been interpreted as trying to save Mac. I agree with Nog or whoever it was who said that the theory of his possible "bear hint" doesn't make much sense; why on earth would the lions think the bear left a hint?

[Rikae]

Mac the demon monkey

Day One

#27 IC post, with some complaining about the lack of a “sense of urgency”.
Also:

Originally Posted by Mac

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

This struck me as weirdly wishy-washy at the time and now even more so.

#38 Asking for clarification on the Targ, then does his fake Targ reveal.

Originally Posted by Mac

Aside from this, while I do agree that Nerwen's post was a bit suspicious, Lommy seemed a bit over-eager to jump on it.

#40 reacts to Volo's joke, says no one but a cobbler would false reveal as a Targ who survived a kill.

#70 Infamous “numbers may be on your side” to skip.
Casts mild suspicion at Wilwa for her focus on the lovers, and this about Kitanna:

Originally Posted by Mac

This one seems fishy, too. "I don't like the lovers, but I don't want to do anything about it" - Subtly leading the inn towards looking for lovers more than looking for wolves, while keeping their own hands clean. Don't like it.

Wishy-washy suspicion on Lommy's “worth keeping in mind” (about bear-lion alliances):

Originally Posted by Mac

This would make me suspicious as well, for the same reasons as above. "The lovers are not as bad as I said before, but they're still very bad". The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?

At the time, I thought Lommy's post looked questionable myself, and wondered why Mac was suspecting and excusing it in one breath.
This in response to Inzil's “Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. “.

Originally Posted by Mac

This coming in response to the slightest early Day One suspicion? Woah, there.

That is kind of odd, seems a little like an exaggerated response.

#80 Responds to me about the bear, arguing against going after him.

#92 Continues defending his “going after the bear is fishy” stuff, this time to Wilwa.

#96 List post:

Originally Posted by Mac

Blissfully absent:
Eonwe
Green Lommyhands

New to the game / haven't played with before (as far as I'm aware), so vote-exempt for now:
Loslote, Wyth, Copper (not too concerned about either of them at this point)

Seem innocent at the moment:
Encai (feels good)
Wilwa (been disagreeing with her, but she sounds innocent)
Rikae (playful Rikae is ordo-Rikae, or so I'd like to think)
Volo (feels good, too)
Gil (same)

No clue either way, really:
Lommy Greenhands (mostly fine, but just too much bear-talk overall)
Nerwen (does seem alright, but only a fool trusts Nerwen)
Galadriel (no real feeling either way)
Eomer (same here)
Nogrod (hasn't said enough yet)
Sally (hasn't said much either)
Skip (said plenty, but I don't know what to do with him)

Somewhat fishy:
Inzil (seems nervous)
Kitanna (really just this one line I pointed out earlier, very flimsy suspicion)
Boro (something seems off, can't put my finger on it)

Very fishy:
nobody

Totally fishy:
nobody

A lot of gut feeling in this list, and nobody sticks out as truly deserving of a vote. Day One at its best.

Mostly a lot of filler and vague stuff. There could easily be a lion in the fishy category, or among all the “hasn't said enough/no feeling, feels good” stuff. I can't see him outright calling his suspicion for a fellow Lannister “very flimsy”, so I feel better about Kitanna.


#100 Defending himself to Galadriel, This:

Originally Posted by Mac

Originally Posted by Inzil
As I said, if you ignored me or thought I seemed innocent I would be more concerned.
On second thought, I think Inzil looks quite innocent. I will ignore him for now.

and “What's wrong with bears?” to Wilwa.
#114

Originally Posted by Mac

Feeling better about Eomer and Galadriel as well. She's sooo insistent that we can't get a wolf today (not that I'm optimistic by any stretch), I highly doubt a wolf would act this way, and lacking a cobbler, she's most likely innocent.

This comes after Eomer saying “You just made a big mistake, pal. “ and he gives no reason for “feeling better” about him, and just lumps him in with Gal.

#120 Complains mildly about Gal's vote for him.

#131 Defends “your side”. Claims not to like Skip wagon.

Originally Posted by Mac

Of my "top suspects" only Inzil has gotten a vote, but I don't feel remotely confident enough about him either to try and get a bandwaggon for him on the rails. Voting for Kitanna or Boro would seem like a throwaway at this point, too, not that I feel strongly about them either.

#138 Votes for Inzil. “Don't lynch me, ok.” With a smiley. This gives me the feeling at one or both of the other lions hasn't voted yet, or at least, is still around to argue. Gil, Lommy, Greenie, Nog, Volo and Eomer voted after Mac. Greenie and Nog voted for Mac late in the day, bringing him to 3 and 4 votes vs. the 5 Skip already had.
Lommy's vote for Wilwa both avoids the Skip wagon and avoids giving Mac his third vote. She could have given Inzil a third vote at that point, too. Not liking the options as an innocent is legit, but the placement makes it look somewhat suspect.

Day Two

#175
Gloats (Seer down in Night 2? Wow.)
“Who might Wilwa have dreamt of” - confident that won't help us? That trail kind of pointed to him, but as a bear.

Continues explaining “your side”.

Originally Posted by Mac

When I voted and left yesterDay, I thought my "don't lynch me" comment might've been a bit over the top... but you guys almost did kill me! Not cool.

Would fit nicely if Greenie or Nog is a lion!

#179
Points out Wilwa's list of people she feels good about as having a possible innocent dream. (Boro, me, Kit, Nerwen). Since people have been talking about him as the seer dream, a self-defense move, whatever else it may be.

“If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. “


This should have been a tip-off.

Claims the lovers wanted to kill someone who drew attention to their role.



Aaaand... I have to go and don't have time to finish this. I also wanted to look at other people's interactions with/words about Mac, but I definitely won't have time for that. People, let's not forget that the lion we already caught is probably our best lead.

There's a small chance I won't make it back before deadline, but I really don't want to vote this early.

[A Little Green]

Ok, I took a quick look at
KITANNA
(Note: I haven't included all her posts, only bits that stood out to me on rereading.)

Day 1

Starts the Day with banter about how she, Encai and Sally are lions because they're all peasants. In her next post, argues against a Targaryen reveal (and does so again in a later post) and flip-flops in some length about the lovers, saying that she won't actively hunt them but would like to be rid of the one extra kill and thus won't mind if one of them gets killed. Says she's busy and might have to vote half-random. Gives Skip his second vote:

Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.

Day 2

Starts off by speculating on why the bear went for Wilwa. Says that she had not really thought that the lovers might ally themselves with either the village or the lions. Thinks Gal looked nice and helpful but can't think of why the lions targeted her unless it was because she was too helpful. Argues that it's important to also discuss the bear but repeats that she won't be actively hunting him. Agrees with Lommy on a statement on the bear very similar to her own from Day 1.
Finds both Nerwen and Lommy suspicious for an exchange on Day 1, says Mac's fake reveal means he's either guilty and trying to distract us or a crazy ordo. Part agrees, part disagrees with Volo's ”bear is a friendly neighborhood assassin” -post. Still more elaboration on the same lions/lovers -debate:

I think this is a very sensible breakdown. I think we can all agree no one wants the double kills at night, but at the same time the lovers could be an asset if they are hunting the lions too.
The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

Thinks Lottie's suspicion list is non-committal, can't find much fault with Sally's vote, questions Boro slightly. Speculates about Wilwa's dream:

I think within these five [Mac, Boro, Rikae, Kit, Nerwen] is Wilwa's dream. It's most probably one of the four she felt good about, but I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac. He accused Wilwa of steering the conversation toward hunter/lover talk instead of toward the lions. Then her mention above just doesn't sit right with me. It's not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it.

Thinks Encai looks buddy-buddy with Eomer, says Wilwa's dream was most likely one of the ones she felt good about, calls Inzil's vote ”easy bandwagon, lack of time vote, which I am also guilty of casting”, subtly casts suspicion on Lommy by saying it's interesting how her top two choices for lynching on Day 1 are both dead, though adds that much shouldn't really be read into it.

She then has a long-ish and, to my eye, very odd exchange with Eomer. I couldn't make out what they were even talking about; it looked like they both misunderstood something the other said and tried to clarify it.

After that is the infamous slip, if it is one:

Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions.

Doubts the lions would have purposefully gone after the hunter. Flip-flops about Mac:

Where Galadriel's death is concerned I see Mac as somewhat innocent. She voted for him, but it's possible the lions thought she was seer based on her comments about Wilwa. Or if they thought they were getting the hunter, as both Rikae and Zil say, Mac looks pretty good.
However, I feel somewhat uneasy about Mac where Wilwa is regarded. Their interactions about the lovers yesterday was odd. A lion trying to get rid of the competition before the lovers get them? Or a bear nervous that a lion had pegged them?

She then analyses of the Day 1 Mac-wagon:

A lot of attention has been paid to skip's bandwagon, so I'm not really going to add much, since nothing I could say will be new.

Rather, I'm interested in the Mac voters. We know now that skip is innocent, so it's not like the votes against Mac piled up to save him, so why did he get his own bandwagon? According to the timeline (as provided by the lynch candidate himself) Mac didn't receive a vote until after skip already had five.

She concludes her analysis with

I'd say that there was a lion in skip's wagon for sure, but I feel there was probably one in Mac's too.

That said
Zil - Based on vote placement for Skip and his general agreeable attitude thus far I'd say he's the likely lion in that wagon. He also gained three votes of his own and at his vote placement he had one vote and his vote gave skip 4, thus pushing skip far into the lead.
Wyth & Greenie - I haven't seen a lot from them to make a really informed decision, but based on placement I'd say lion. I'm in the dark about Greenie, but Wyth has said a few things that I noted as odd. He seemed overly defensive earlier today, but hasn't been around much since to continue to watch. Also he was skip leaning yesterday, but switched to Mac. Which is odd to me.

I'm leaning toward an innocent Nog based on his vote.

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.
Mac - The more I see from others the less likely I find it that Mac is a lion. But his responses about the lover discussion are odd.
Gil - His vote was very, very safe. His comments haven't been unreasonable and though he's garnered some suspicion, he's stayed pretty well under the radar.

Votes for Encai:

Just got super busy at work, but the short of it
1) she's been just vocal enough to appear helpful, but not so vocal as to draw too much attention
2) she seemed very chummy D1, especially with Eomer
3) her vote for Nogrod looked very safe to me

Explains her slip:

I mean. That she was chosen because she didn't specifically mention any lions in her posts. So they chose her as a no trace kill.

Edit: just a theory on why her since what she said didn't look too seerish to me, with the exception of her Wilwa defense

CONCLUSIONS?
Three things above all caught my eye on reading Kitanna.
1) She concentrates a lot on the bear/lovers, despite saying our first priority should be the lions.
2) She flip-flops on Mac a great deal. She "can't shake an uneasy feeling about him", but later on "finds it unlikely that he's a lion".
3) Her odd slip about Gal not mentioning any lions. It still puzzles me, and I didn't really understand her explanation of it, either. But the idea of two genuine wolf slips in the same village sounds a bit ludicrous, so I'm not sure what to make of that.

Also - why vote for Encai? Her previous post made it look like she suspected Inzil (and maybe also Wyth and myself) a deal more than Encai. At the time she voted, Inzil already had two votes but Encai had none (if I remember correctly that her vote was cross-posted with Rikae's). Which makes it really odd that she doesn't vote for Inzil.


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy's novel, fixed typo

[A Little Green]

Two lions in the following bunch:
Eönwë - Still under my radar, although his yesterDay's vote does make him look more innocent than not. Unless, of course, Inzil is a lion too, in which case it doesn't tell us anything at all.
Inzil - I agree with Lommy that his and Mac's suspicion of each other is a bit extreme for lion-on-lion, but if Kit turns out to be a lion, I might change my mind and suspect him after all.
Kitanna - Suspicious (see previous post for details).
Encaitare - I think her response to Nog's argument against her toDay seemed genuine; not too alarmed otherwise, either.
Lommy - Still torn about her - she was really fishy on Day 1, then getting less and less so as the game progresses. Not my main suspect at the moment, but not comfortable with her, either.
Boro - Does someone pay him to make my brain hurt? What's all this cryptic *vanishes* -stuff? In a word: confusing.
Loslote - I like her argumentation, but what I mostly recall of her without closer reading is easy, likely noncontroversial votes on both days. Could go either way.
Wyth - Difficult to say; could be a lion-cub, could be a regular cub. Headache-material.
Eomer - Hmm. He's seemed innocentish to me this far, but his interactions with Mac do look slightly fishy.
Rikae - I still find her more innocent than not.
Copper - Still slightly suspicious of her for the same reasons as yesterDay - her reasons for voting Eomer yesterDay seemed a little like grasping at straws, and I got an uneasy feeling about her "Oh no, the seer is dead" -comment. Not top of my list toDay, though.
Nogrod - I still don't suspect him! What's wrong with me?
Gil-Galad - Haven't seen anything to alarm me this far, and his Mac-vote yesterDay made him seem more innocent than not.
Sally - Where is she?


EDIT: fixed typo again. "Suspicous" sounds like a brand of couscous.

[Coppermirror]

By the way, I'm still here, and still writing my analysis of Mac. Haven't even got to reading Day 3 properly yet. Oh hell, it's going to be daylight before I'm finished with this thing. And I still don't know who to vote for.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Sally - Where is she?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but...she didn't vote yesterDay, did she? This is a bit concerning. I think Boro didn't vote either.

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish
Inzil
Lottie
Eönwë
Greenie
Gil
(see my macalysis, I'm giving them the benefit of doubt for the time being)

Not too worried about
Rikae - seems more innocent than not, there are some things against her but overall she's far from the top of my suspicion list.
Nogrod - there is the worrying possibility of Nog being a mastermind wolf, but my gut-feeling says no. Like I said before, he seems way more secretive as a wolf.
Copper - I always have hard time reading her because her posts are like 75% summary and 25% interpretation, but there's nothing that has really caught my attention yet.
Wyth - his interactions with Mac could go either way, and I have hard time reading him. He's in this category because other people are way more suspicious.
Sally - in serious threat of getting modfired... Where are you, Sallycakes? Anyway, I don't find it very productive to discuss her until she appears (or is modfired).

Worried about
Boro - really weird toDay, and his conviction of Kitanna's innocence in strange. Also he talks about yesterDay's voting like he knows Kitanna and Zil are innocent, which is slightly alarming.
Encai - my gut-feeling is against her, and her vote yesterDay isn't the least suspicious either to phrase it mildly.
Eomer - mostly because of his interactions with Mac, also he somehow manages to be under the radar while being quite controversial and I don't like that.
Kitanna - my top suspect atm. Consider her slip, her concentrating on the bear and the maiden fair and her interactions with Mac, plus the fact that people (including Mac) have defended her even though there hasn't been that much suspicion against her. Why I hesitate: it looks maybe even too obvious, (plus if Boro happens to be a wolf, I doubt she is.)

[satansaloser2005]

So many avatars changing* has made trying to read the thread very difficult.

I'm here and reading. Hopefully I can get through the Day and get a good grip on things.


*Well, that and all of the people I haven't played with in forever, but that part excites me.

[Kitanna]

I don't really get this "slip" I made. I explained what I meant, but

Originally Posted by A Little Green

That's basically what I'm thinking - could it be that easy?

No

Originally Posted by Zil

It was with Mac, but will lightning strike twice?

And it won't.

But please, go ahead and vote for me to assuage your fears. Otherwise you'll never be sure.

++Enca

I stand by my points from yesterday and her vote yesterday was conveniently placed.

I'm sorry I wasn't very vocal today. I had some RL projects to tend to.