WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[A Little Green]

Ok, I took a quick look at
KITANNA
(Note: I haven't included all her posts, only bits that stood out to me on rereading.)

Day 1

Starts the Day with banter about how she, Encai and Sally are lions because they're all peasants. In her next post, argues against a Targaryen reveal (and does so again in a later post) and flip-flops in some length about the lovers, saying that she won't actively hunt them but would like to be rid of the one extra kill and thus won't mind if one of them gets killed. Says she's busy and might have to vote half-random. Gives Skip his second vote:

Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.

Day 2

Starts off by speculating on why the bear went for Wilwa. Says that she had not really thought that the lovers might ally themselves with either the village or the lions. Thinks Gal looked nice and helpful but can't think of why the lions targeted her unless it was because she was too helpful. Argues that it's important to also discuss the bear but repeats that she won't be actively hunting him. Agrees with Lommy on a statement on the bear very similar to her own from Day 1.
Finds both Nerwen and Lommy suspicious for an exchange on Day 1, says Mac's fake reveal means he's either guilty and trying to distract us or a crazy ordo. Part agrees, part disagrees with Volo's ”bear is a friendly neighborhood assassin” -post. Still more elaboration on the same lions/lovers -debate:

I think this is a very sensible breakdown. I think we can all agree no one wants the double kills at night, but at the same time the lovers could be an asset if they are hunting the lions too.
The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

Thinks Lottie's suspicion list is non-committal, can't find much fault with Sally's vote, questions Boro slightly. Speculates about Wilwa's dream:

I think within these five [Mac, Boro, Rikae, Kit, Nerwen] is Wilwa's dream. It's most probably one of the four she felt good about, but I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac. He accused Wilwa of steering the conversation toward hunter/lover talk instead of toward the lions. Then her mention above just doesn't sit right with me. It's not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it.

Thinks Encai looks buddy-buddy with Eomer, says Wilwa's dream was most likely one of the ones she felt good about, calls Inzil's vote ”easy bandwagon, lack of time vote, which I am also guilty of casting”, subtly casts suspicion on Lommy by saying it's interesting how her top two choices for lynching on Day 1 are both dead, though adds that much shouldn't really be read into it.

She then has a long-ish and, to my eye, very odd exchange with Eomer. I couldn't make out what they were even talking about; it looked like they both misunderstood something the other said and tried to clarify it.

After that is the infamous slip, if it is one:

Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions.

Doubts the lions would have purposefully gone after the hunter. Flip-flops about Mac:

Where Galadriel's death is concerned I see Mac as somewhat innocent. She voted for him, but it's possible the lions thought she was seer based on her comments about Wilwa. Or if they thought they were getting the hunter, as both Rikae and Zil say, Mac looks pretty good.
However, I feel somewhat uneasy about Mac where Wilwa is regarded. Their interactions about the lovers yesterday was odd. A lion trying to get rid of the competition before the lovers get them? Or a bear nervous that a lion had pegged them?

She then analyses of the Day 1 Mac-wagon:

A lot of attention has been paid to skip's bandwagon, so I'm not really going to add much, since nothing I could say will be new.

Rather, I'm interested in the Mac voters. We know now that skip is innocent, so it's not like the votes against Mac piled up to save him, so why did he get his own bandwagon? According to the timeline (as provided by the lynch candidate himself) Mac didn't receive a vote until after skip already had five.

She concludes her analysis with

I'd say that there was a lion in skip's wagon for sure, but I feel there was probably one in Mac's too.

That said
Zil - Based on vote placement for Skip and his general agreeable attitude thus far I'd say he's the likely lion in that wagon. He also gained three votes of his own and at his vote placement he had one vote and his vote gave skip 4, thus pushing skip far into the lead.
Wyth & Greenie - I haven't seen a lot from them to make a really informed decision, but based on placement I'd say lion. I'm in the dark about Greenie, but Wyth has said a few things that I noted as odd. He seemed overly defensive earlier today, but hasn't been around much since to continue to watch. Also he was skip leaning yesterday, but switched to Mac. Which is odd to me.

I'm leaning toward an innocent Nog based on his vote.

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.
Mac - The more I see from others the less likely I find it that Mac is a lion. But his responses about the lover discussion are odd.
Gil - His vote was very, very safe. His comments haven't been unreasonable and though he's garnered some suspicion, he's stayed pretty well under the radar.

Votes for Encai:

Just got super busy at work, but the short of it
1) she's been just vocal enough to appear helpful, but not so vocal as to draw too much attention
2) she seemed very chummy D1, especially with Eomer
3) her vote for Nogrod looked very safe to me

Explains her slip:

I mean. That she was chosen because she didn't specifically mention any lions in her posts. So they chose her as a no trace kill.

Edit: just a theory on why her since what she said didn't look too seerish to me, with the exception of her Wilwa defense

CONCLUSIONS?
Three things above all caught my eye on reading Kitanna.
1) She concentrates a lot on the bear/lovers, despite saying our first priority should be the lions.
2) She flip-flops on Mac a great deal. She "can't shake an uneasy feeling about him", but later on "finds it unlikely that he's a lion".
3) Her odd slip about Gal not mentioning any lions. It still puzzles me, and I didn't really understand her explanation of it, either. But the idea of two genuine wolf slips in the same village sounds a bit ludicrous, so I'm not sure what to make of that.

Also - why vote for Encai? Her previous post made it look like she suspected Inzil (and maybe also Wyth and myself) a deal more than Encai. At the time she voted, Inzil already had two votes but Encai had none (if I remember correctly that her vote was cross-posted with Rikae's). Which makes it really odd that she doesn't vote for Inzil.


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy's novel, fixed typo

[A Little Green]

Two lions in the following bunch:
Eönwë - Still under my radar, although his yesterDay's vote does make him look more innocent than not. Unless, of course, Inzil is a lion too, in which case it doesn't tell us anything at all.
Inzil - I agree with Lommy that his and Mac's suspicion of each other is a bit extreme for lion-on-lion, but if Kit turns out to be a lion, I might change my mind and suspect him after all.
Kitanna - Suspicious (see previous post for details).
Encaitare - I think her response to Nog's argument against her toDay seemed genuine; not too alarmed otherwise, either.
Lommy - Still torn about her - she was really fishy on Day 1, then getting less and less so as the game progresses. Not my main suspect at the moment, but not comfortable with her, either.
Boro - Does someone pay him to make my brain hurt? What's all this cryptic *vanishes* -stuff? In a word: confusing.
Loslote - I like her argumentation, but what I mostly recall of her without closer reading is easy, likely noncontroversial votes on both days. Could go either way.
Wyth - Difficult to say; could be a lion-cub, could be a regular cub. Headache-material.
Eomer - Hmm. He's seemed innocentish to me this far, but his interactions with Mac do look slightly fishy.
Rikae - I still find her more innocent than not.
Copper - Still slightly suspicious of her for the same reasons as yesterDay - her reasons for voting Eomer yesterDay seemed a little like grasping at straws, and I got an uneasy feeling about her "Oh no, the seer is dead" -comment. Not top of my list toDay, though.
Nogrod - I still don't suspect him! What's wrong with me?
Gil-Galad - Haven't seen anything to alarm me this far, and his Mac-vote yesterDay made him seem more innocent than not.
Sally - Where is she?


EDIT: fixed typo again. "Suspicous" sounds like a brand of couscous.

[Coppermirror]

By the way, I'm still here, and still writing my analysis of Mac. Haven't even got to reading Day 3 properly yet. Oh hell, it's going to be daylight before I'm finished with this thing. And I still don't know who to vote for.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Sally - Where is she?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but...she didn't vote yesterDay, did she? This is a bit concerning. I think Boro didn't vote either.

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish
Inzil
Lottie
Eönwë
Greenie
Gil
(see my macalysis, I'm giving them the benefit of doubt for the time being)

Not too worried about
Rikae - seems more innocent than not, there are some things against her but overall she's far from the top of my suspicion list.
Nogrod - there is the worrying possibility of Nog being a mastermind wolf, but my gut-feeling says no. Like I said before, he seems way more secretive as a wolf.
Copper - I always have hard time reading her because her posts are like 75% summary and 25% interpretation, but there's nothing that has really caught my attention yet.
Wyth - his interactions with Mac could go either way, and I have hard time reading him. He's in this category because other people are way more suspicious.
Sally - in serious threat of getting modfired... Where are you, Sallycakes? Anyway, I don't find it very productive to discuss her until she appears (or is modfired).

Worried about
Boro - really weird toDay, and his conviction of Kitanna's innocence in strange. Also he talks about yesterDay's voting like he knows Kitanna and Zil are innocent, which is slightly alarming.
Encai - my gut-feeling is against her, and her vote yesterDay isn't the least suspicious either to phrase it mildly.
Eomer - mostly because of his interactions with Mac, also he somehow manages to be under the radar while being quite controversial and I don't like that.
Kitanna - my top suspect atm. Consider her slip, her concentrating on the bear and the maiden fair and her interactions with Mac, plus the fact that people (including Mac) have defended her even though there hasn't been that much suspicion against her. Why I hesitate: it looks maybe even too obvious, (plus if Boro happens to be a wolf, I doubt she is.)

[satansaloser2005]

So many avatars changing* has made trying to read the thread very difficult.

I'm here and reading. Hopefully I can get through the Day and get a good grip on things.


*Well, that and all of the people I haven't played with in forever, but that part excites me.

[Thinlómien]

Where is everyone? I'm not liking this silence one bit. Makes me feel like the remaining wolves are probably safe and happily in hiding while the couple of us who have been around toDay are arguing in circles...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Inzil's interaction with Mac does seem a bit planned to me, and I suspect Inzil anyway for independent reasons; however, simplest answer is surely that Inzil is probably no lion.

I don't know if Mac planned any of that interaction with me, but I may have put the idea in his head with my early, not serious, suspicion of him. Like I've said, we've always seemed to have suspected one another in the past, and I was just touching on that. He might have seen that as an opportunity to tie me to him in the event he was discovered.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm gonna go ahead and say that Wyth, Nog and Green are not lions either.

I'm fairly comfortable with Wyth and Greenie, but I'm wary of Nog just on general principles, though he looks rather clean thus far.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Also, Boro is acting weird.

No argument there. But Lion-weird? That's unlikely.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

So many avatars changing* has made trying to read the thread very difficult.

Yes to that too. It was already hard enough remembering who all was playing...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Where is everyone? I'm not liking this silence one bit. Makes me feel like the remaining wolves are probably safe and happily in hiding while the couple of us who have been around toDay are arguing in circles...

My feeling is that there's a loud Lion and a quiet one. There's several I've seen entirely too little of.

x/d with Greenie, Gil, and Nog

[Nogrod]

Doing my first list then.

Very probably innocent:

Eönwë - house Royce (because of the voting: deciding to finally lynch Maclion)
A Little Green - house Reed (because of the voting on both Days & general reasonableness)


Leaning towards innocence:

Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin (because of pressing Maclion and basically building a case againt him - too serious-looking to be lion-onlion + speaks sense)
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos (because of vote D2)


It's complicated...

Inziladun - house Tully (I have been suspecting him especially earlier but somehow things just don't seem to add up with Mac's role known)
Kitanna - illiterate peasant (Have been suspecting from D2 onwards and probably my strongest suspicion right now - but like Greenie said: "could it be this easy?")
Encaitare - random peasant (Made a good answer to my question on her vote yesterDay but that diesn't clear other issues)
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon (Spends first evening just hanging around and sending tallies... votes late on both Days but never takes sides between the top-candidates but ducks away...)
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark (that error - not knowing which baddie-side killed the seer - bothers me to no end: absolutely innocent or a double-bluff? I can see why some suspect him otherwise but...)


Sadly, no idea:

Boromir88 - house Bolton
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Rikae - house Tarth
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit x
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

[A Little Green]

Need an early bed this time as I'm pretty much dead on my feet, so I'm voting now and likely not coming back toDay.

++ Kitanna

In brief: her slip, her emphasis on the lovers, her interactions with Mac, and to some extent her inconsistent voting yesterDay.

[Gil-Galad]

I am here and reading as much as I can when I get the chance, though it is another quiet day. I have a feeling it will boil down to another last minute vote-off like last day.

[Nogrod]

Scrolling through the thread while watching football I happened to see this from early yesterDay

Originally Posted by Eomer

So if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group.
......
Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.

An innocent might have made that kind of an error... but a wolf or a lover/Bear wouldn't - unless it was done on purpose trying to look like an innocent?

Somehow my feeling is, that would be a bit far-fetched, but what do you think? Would Eomer pull that kind of a trick?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Scrolling through the thread while watching football I happened to see this from early yesterDayAn innocent might have made that kind of an error... but a wolf or a lover/Bear wouldn't - unless it was done on purpose trying to look like an innocent?

Somehow my feeling is, that would be a bit far-fetched, but what do you think? Would Eomer pull that kind of a trick?

Yes, I forgot about that. Personally I think it would be quite a dishonest trick to pull as a wolf, but Eomer's playing style is not the most nicey-nice or lawful and he does tend to think outside the box. Still, this makes me a little less suspicious of him. (Although maybe a wolf lost in his won fabrications could genuinely make such a mistake too, who knows.) /end lommy-flipflop