WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Eönwë]

Ok, I think I've finally read up on yesterDay.

The village voted Kit because of this post!?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

If Galadriel was targeted as a possible seer by the lions I'd say her endorsement of an innocent Wilwa was likely why. Though she does mention Mac and Volo. But seems like a stretch to interpret what she had to say as seer hints about them.
Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions. In which case Volo and Mac look decent.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

The village voted Kit because of this post!?

A straight answer, I think, would be "no". But it would be a part of the reasoning for some (like me). I mean it's not only the "slip" (which turned out not to be a slip after all) of kind of letting it be seen in between the lines that she knows no lions were mentioned aka. she knows who they are because she is one herself - but also that it defends Mac who then turned out a lion...

But I think her relation with Mac (mutual) were the first reasons to vote for her - and her own votes the second reason, this maybe coming as the third important or something... but yeah, let's continue as these cases have been argued like dozen times already by several people. So I mean next time someone asks "why did you lynch Kit" I'd only say "read the thread" as many people have stated these reasons quite clearly quite many times already.



But this spotting by Eönwë I do appreciate as at least I had totally overseen/forgotten it:

Originally Posted by Inzil

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

So does he imply he knew Mac was a lion? It as also interestin g to follow the bickering between Mac and Inzil recollected. Somehow it feels a bit overdone if they would be both lions, but it is also possible that with both gaining suspicions and them tslking themselves into these dead-end alleys they were kind of forced to follow their susoicions with votes... Who knows? But certainly one more scenario to mull over - or at least one we should not overlook.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nog is the one who's really bothering me toDay, math aside. I just get a feeling he's trying to subtly steer conversation in unhelpful directions.

Like urging us to concentrate on the lionhunt - and speaking against wasting time on Bear-speculations? Like saying let's go back to Mac-bussiness as that is where we have any hints there could be? Very unhelpful direction indeed... Could you Rikae tell us which would be more helpful directions?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So does he imply he knew Mac was a lion? It as also interestin g to follow the bickering between Mac and Inzil recollected. Somehow it feels a bit overdone if they would be both lions, but it is also possible that with both gaining suspicions and them tslking themselves into these dead-end alleys they were kind of forced to follow their susoicions with votes... Who knows? But certainly one more scenario to mull over - or at least one we should not overlook.

That quote and back-and-forth with Rikae was about her saying G55 might have been killed as a possible Hunter. I replied that since she had suspected Mac I thought that if Mac were a Lion, taking her out would be a risk I wouldn't take myself. I fail to see what's suspicious about that.
I'm trying to not see Eönwë as a potential Lion boring in on a perceived easy lynch, but the possibility has gone through my mind.

[Rikae]

Encai

Day 2 – Gives Inzil a fourth vote when Mac has three, although due to cross-posting she would have thought it was Inzil's third to Mac's one and her own two. Iow, if there's anything behind it but suspecting Inzil, it would probably be self-preservation.

Inzil

-On Mac's “your side”, day 2 “You're lucky I missed that, as I could certainly have thought it voteworthy”

Day 2 – his “I was the first” stuff. Defensive? Indeed. Leonine? Not so much. I still think a lion would have checked before making that statement.

Post #304, Inzil gives Mac his second vote when he already has 2 himself (3 actually, but he crossed with Wyth's vote for him) and Encai has 2. I don't think a lion would do this, either.


Lommy

- Mac says of Lommy, day 1 “This would make me suspicious as well, for the same reasons as above. "The lovers are not as bad as I said before, but they're still very bad". The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold? “
The sort of wishy-washy “suspicion” a lion might use either to nudge suspicions toward an innocent while keeping his hands clean, or to distance himself from a fellow. However, it's worth noting that this is NOT the most suspicious thing about Lommy's statement: Mac is glossing over, and drawing attention away from, its hintishness.

- Lommy on Day 2: “Evil!Mac and evil!Volo seem like options too, but I think they were both suspected more by someone else, and the phrasing is not especially seerish at least in this post. “ and in the same post “And what is this talk about wolves wanting to off the hunter?? *looks especially at Rikae* Whenever people suggest the wolves killed someone for any other reason other than seeming seerish, it smells of covering trails to me. The wolves need to get rid of the seer, first and foremost. There needs to be a good reason not to go for someone who looks seerish to them.”

So, Gal wouldn't look seerish to Mac, but it is apparently inconceivable that no one looked seerish? I guess this is a point in Lommy's favor. I doubt a lion would be so locked onto the idea that Gal must have looked seerish for some reason.

Nog
- Reading Day 1, Nog is really quick to cast suspicion for flimsy reasons. Everything seems to be a possible wolf-slip in his eyes.

- Day 2 - Nog is the one who pointed out that Gal's playing style was different and it would have made her look generally gifted, while also saying that she didn't seem to be a seer who dreamt of Mac.
I agree with the latter point: others suspected Mac, so it wouldn't make sense for them to target her for that reason. I consider it likely the first reason is indeed the reason they went for Gal, but I only noticed it in retrospect, when Nog pointed it out. Perhaps Nog pointed it out to his fellows on the previous night as well?

Also, kind of a meta point against Nog – he isn't suspecting me, or arguing with me. When he's innocent, he pretty much always thinks whatever I'm saying is flagrantly wrong and goes on a crusade against it. I can't imagine I'm suddenly talking sense in his eyes; more likely, he's evil.
In particular, he picks up on a couple offhand/throwaway comments of mine and agrees with them in post #236. It gives a “buttering up” vibe.

Gives Mac his 5th vote when Inzil already has 5. At this point Inzil would still be lynched – lion!Nog would be making himself look very nice in the event of a Mac lynch, but not necessarily lynching Mac. I don't believe for a minute he wouldn't do this. Nogwolf is notorious for throwing comrades under the bus.

Once again I'm running out of time. At any rate, from what I've looked at so far
++Nogrod

Is the clear winner.

[Nogrod]

Oh. I see Rikae finally opened the game.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Also, kind of a meta point against Nog – he isn't suspecting me, or arguing with me. When he's innocent, he pretty much always thinks whatever I'm saying is flagrantly wrong and goes on a crusade against it.

Now if you really are a wolf, you were too hasty I think.

Although I'm also kind of disappointed... I thought you would have made a better one. I could have done a better case against myself.


Yes, I have been suspecting you Rikae on some gut-level for some time already but purposefully avoided a clash as I have kind of enjoyd the game without fire and brimstone thus far - and because I've had better candidates for suspicion anyway. So with you I have been kind of waiting if you make a move... and now it seems you took the gloves off... Hmm.

There is an interesting football match starting in a moment and I'm going to watch it and have some dinner, but I'll be back for the last two hours. Let's see if there is still something in the "Mac-diaries" or other promising leads. If not, then let's lynch Rikae - or me. We can nicely afford even lynching me toDay with the numbers we have if you then lynch her the next Day.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Oh. I see Rikae finally opened the game.

Now if you really are a wolf, you were too hasty I think.

Although I'm also kind of disappointed... I thought you would have made a better one. I could have done a better case against myself.

Well, sorry, but I have to spend the day with my in-laws, so you'll have to take what you can get. Be my guest, though. I'm sure you can give us all the real reasons you are suspicious. Who would be more qualified?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Yes, I have been suspecting you Rikae on some gut-level for some time already but purposefully avoided a clash as I have kind of enjoyd the game without fire and brimstone thus far - and because I've had better candidates for suspicion anyway. So with you I have been kind of waiting if you make a move... and now it seems you took the gloves off... Hmm.

I suspect you for not suspecting me -> you've suspected me all along, really? If you're innocent, it's a pity friendliness kept you from doing your best to hunt lions (I don't believe that for a second).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There is an interesting football match starting in a moment and I'm going to watch it and have some dinner, but I'll be back for the last two hours. Let's see if there is still something in the "Mac-diaries" or other promising leads. If not, then let's lynch Rikae - or me. We can nicely afford even lynching me toDay with the numbers we have if you then lynch her the next Day.

I'm just an ordo and have little time to play - you could do worse.

That's all the time I have now - I won't be back before deadline, I'm afraid.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

I looks like Rikae actually started preparing her attack already a bit earlier with that oddish:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nog is the one who's really bothering me toDay, math aside. I just get a feeling he's trying to subtly steer conversation in unhelpful directions.

If trying to convince some others that we should not "try to catch the Bear" (as there is no way of doing it) but hunt lions and actually getting the winning conditions clarified is steering the conversation in unhelpful directions - and not only that, but also unhelpful in such a magnitude it actually makes her seriously suspect me for because I did those things... well I can't see we're playing the same game or sharing the same reality.

So that was bogus.

The rest is as fabricated.

Originally Posted by Rikae

- Reading Day 1, Nog is really quick to cast suspicion for flimsy reasons. Everything seems to be a possible wolf-slip in his eyes.

That's D1 and everyone should try to find any suspiciousness everywhere. That's the point of the game. Also, I think there were two possible "slips" I discussed (although I'm not sure if they were both on D1), which obviously isn't "everywhere".

- Day 2 - Nog is the one who pointed out that Gal's playing style was different and it would have made her look generally gifted, while also saying that she didn't seem to be a seer who dreamt of Mac.
I agree with the latter point: others suspected Mac, so it wouldn't make sense for them to target her for that reason. I consider it likely the first reason is indeed the reason they went for Gal, but I only noticed it in retrospect, when Nog pointed it out. Perhaps Nog pointed it out to his fellows on the previous night as well?

I'm not quite getting this... but it seems clear all actual suspicion here is in the end, with: Perhaps Nog pointed it out to his fellows on the previous night as well? Sorry but I don't get what is this about. Perhaps someone said something to someone during the Night? How does it relate to anything - fex. if a lion said something to a fellow-lion at Night why should s/he say it again during the next Day? Or if a lion says something during the Day how do you infer from there s/he could have said the same thing the previous Night - and what that has to do with anything?

Also, kind of a meta point against Nog – he isn't suspecting me, or arguing with me. When he's innocent, he pretty much always thinks whatever I'm saying is flagrantly wrong and goes on a crusade against it. I can't imagine I'm suddenly talking sense in his eyes; more likely, he's evil.
In particular, he picks up on a couple offhand/throwaway comments of mine and agrees with them in post #236. It gives a “buttering up” vibe.

Need I comment to this? I used to enjoy dogfights and duels years ago... and I had more enthusiasm making crusades. We people change and peole who have played with me both years ago and more recently know that.

Gives Mac his 5th vote when Inzil already has 5. At this point Inzil would still be lynched – lion!Nog would be making himself look very nice in the event of a Mac lynch, but not necessarily lynching Mac. I don't believe for a minute he wouldn't do this. Nogwolf is notorious for throwing comrades under the bus.

I didn't use two votes to immediately get Mac lynched - so I'm a lion? Now, give me a break. I've thrown mates under the bus in few games where I have been a wolf but my experiences of that are mostly negative - and in this-sized village it would be stupid for a lion to lynch a mate as now with only two lions left the numbers are really against them. And really: if you take that kind of possibility as a proof of my lionity, well I don't know what to say about the quality of your points?

Originally Posted by Rikae

I suspect you for not suspecting me -> you've suspected me all along, really? If you're innocent, it's a pity friendliness kept you from doing your best to hunt lions (I don't believe that for a second).

First some close reading:

I have been suspecting you Rikae on some gut-level for some time (Me)
you've suspected me all along (Rikae)

but purposefully avoided a clash as I have kind of enjoyd the game without fire and brimstone thus far - and because I've had better candidates for suspicion anyway (Me)
it's a pity friendliness kept you from doing your best to hunt lions (I don't believe that for a second) (Rikae)

Honestly Rikae?

So all that is fabricated... I think the lions are getting desperate and they had to come forwards with some radical attempts.

That said, I'm quite ready to vote Rikae toDay as I don't see why an innocent or normal gifted would go to such lengths making that flawed case against someone she doesn't know the role of?


Uhh... the game was palyed overtime and this seems to have taken me longer I thought... Back reading now.

[WythDryden]

I'd daresay the case for Inzil is not looking good for him at the moment. Taking a look at just the lynch-votes for a second. Of the skip voters, there are only 3 people left alive (and it was a pretty accepted theory day 2 that at least one of the lions was living in that group). Those people are Lottie, Eonwe, and Inzil (thus far, I've felt pretty trustful of Lottie and Eonwe, so I hope that doesn't come back to bite me). Next, the remaining kit voters are Greenie, Inzil, Encai, Myself, Lottie, Lommy, and Nog. Both Inzil and Lottie are here, so it doesn't look good for Lottie, but as I mentioned before I'm leaning more towards Inzil being the evil one, other posts considered. Hasn't seemed to be acting entirely weird toDay though..

Edit: X'd since Nog

[Nogrod]

Oh, and asking to clarify the winning-conditions was the most unhelpful thing I presume...

Originally Posted by Zil

That quote and back-and-forth with Rikae was about her saying G55 might have been killed as a possible Hunter. I replied that since she had suspected Mac I thought that if Mac were a Lion, taking her out would be a risk I wouldn't take myself. I fail to see what's suspicious about that.

This is why Werewolf is so darn hard and fun to play - the same sentence can stem from different positions... it can be like you said that you were just speculating that if Mac was a lion and if you were a lion you wouldn't have taken that kind of a risk - or, if you actually were a lion with Mac you might have slipped that you wouldn't have done that were you him... Hmm... putting it openly in this way actually gives me second thoughts... yeah, the latter interpretation doesn't make that much sense - or at least makes less sense I tohught earlier it would.


EDIT: X'd with at least this page...

[Eönwë]

So, other than basic suspicion based on the Skipwaggon the Day before, the first real post I found to suspect Kit is Nog's:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:

I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

Then:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Kitanna - I can't pinpoint it, but something in her posting seems wrong to me, as does the fact that people have been defending her left and right even though she's hardly been under any suspicion toDay.

And then the start of the slip discussion:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Didn't mention any lions? Meaning what?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And Greenie: good catch (again) about Kitanna! Can you proofread my thesis when I finally get around to writing it?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey, I didn't even register that! What the-?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, Kit, now that you're here-

Indeed. Meaning what?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Seemed to me that she meant "it's possible she didn't mention any lions which would make her a random choice". In fact, that's the only way the stuff about Mac and Volo makes sense.

x'd with Rikae's previous post, but already finding more reasons to suspect Kit:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Kitanna - Confuses me. I'm not sure what to make of her saying that Gal didn't mention any lions (although it's more than possible that I just didn't understand what she meant), and I agree with Lommy about the strangeness of people defending her so strongly when nobody really suspects her.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not super happy with the three who have already got some votes; I don't suspect Encai or Eomer and have no idea about Inzil. I'd prefer Mac or Kitanna toDay, would be okay with Lommy, Copper or Loslote too.

Second time it gets quoted, this time with even less context!

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That was actually kind of mind-blowing - and I know I read the very same sentence earlier myself but didn't catch it...

Now this would be a slip of the year indeed! I mean yeah, how does she know she didn't mention any lions unless she knew who they were aka being one herself?

Could it be this easy? Probably not...

But I'm going to go back and see whom she actually left without notice (the first part of her list everyone - mysef included - have kind of ignored as "not seerish").

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I mean. That she was chosen because she didn't specifically mention any lions in her posts. So they chose her as a no trace kill.

Edit: just a theory on why her since what she said didn't look too seerish to me, with the exception of her Wilwa defense

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Wavering between Encai and Kit...

Inzil is a better choice than Mac, but not really too keen on either.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I almost feel like I'd prefer Kit over Mac after all, but bringing in yet another candidate seems a bit silly at this point.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

bah, I think this Mac-Inzil war is leading nowhere.

++Kitanna

Conclusion: Definitely something fishy. Just because so many people latched onto it already without checking (or at least pretending not to check) the context. If you're going to claim it's a slip, at least it should seem pretty convincing. But in this case, it only really looks like a slip without the context. And, I mean, a sentence that actually makes sense is always far more likely than one that doesn't and is also a slip (Sorry, started ranting there). Anyway, my point is that I don't think that everyone who latched onto it had the best intentions. Both Nog and Lommy were already suspecting Kit, so perhaps they could've overlooked it, being clouded by suspicion, but usually they're quite careful, so it seems unlikely that it's the case for both. And as was already proven by this point, pointing out a 'slip' (I'm not even confident that Mac's was one anyway, not that it matters now) is an easy way to spread a suspicion. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the three turned out to be a lion.

One more thing to note: mention of the 'slip' disappears after Rikae and Kit explain it away, but Lommy and Nog are still much more keen to lynch her after it's discovery. This could go either way: either it helped inflame their suspicions, or they're determined to have her as a lynch candidate.