Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Oooor what if both packs targeted the phantom who was the Hunter and Rune his pick?

Did you do this!?

Actually, I think it is pretty clear that I was a wolf-kill from the narration.

Anyways, the dead should rule the living! But as Nogrod and others have stated, that will be very difficult, with most of the voting being done just before the deadline. In most cases I will have to vote some 5-6 hours before deadline... The next few days being possible exceptions.

I won't be in front of a computer until perhaps just before deadline today, but if I can I will check in via my portable communication device.

[the phantom]

I'm disappointed in the Living thus far. A lot of folks have been rather absent (both yesterday and today) and not enough folks have been quoting the Night kill victims in an attempt to point out why they were killed (in terms of "Because of X they thought he was the Seer, because of Y they thought he was the Ranger" etc.).

Originally Posted by Agan

I also like phantom. I don't necessarily find him innocent but I like him. Hey phants I missed you.

Originally Posted by me

Right back at you, my lion.

I'm incredibly surprised no one has picked up on that exchange. At least they did quote me "painting the bulls eye" where I was daring the packs to kill me.

But why kill Rune? It was obvious he was busy with RL stuff and he basically didn't declare anyone innocent (except Form when he voted for him, which would seem to undo a defense) and didn't really paint anyone as guilty (he labelled Green as more annoying).

If I was a WW the Seer would be the only viable target in the early going. So I have to ask why Rune would be killed. And what would make me look like a Seer? As someone on the Living thread pointed out I had groups of 4 (rather than 2) at the top and bottom of my list. So no, I don't really think there's good Seer evidence for me.

So that leaves (1) truthful kill and (2) misleading kill. In other words, one pack could've targeted me because I somewhat suspected all three of them, or because I felt good about all three of them. But of course if option 2 was the case I'd expect one of the pack to hint as much on the thread (suggest I was killed for having correct suspicions to see if others would latch onto it).

Oh, and Rune- if I had been the Hunter I would've chosen ++Phantom as my Hunt victim in the early going, until I had some information to go on.

[Nogrod]

Why I tend to think you tp might not be a wolf just now? Exactly because Rune is the other one killed last Night.

I mean some people when they are wolves want to make confusion-killings by killing someone nobody expects and whose death leads the village into totally wrong tracks (even I can appreciate that tactic early in the game if there just isn't anyone you'd get seer-vibes from), but like you (and a tons of players during WW-history - myself included) have said: it's the seer, the seer, the seer, the wolves want and need to pick, the sooner the better. And in this game it is doubly important as otherwise the villagers are more or less in total darkness but the seer gets double-dreams.

Had it been you tp and Aganzir here as my company, I'd think differently about your lycantrophy. But yes, I see little reason in your team of wolves picking Rune - or your team to not pick Aganzir as your Nightkill (unless you are mates of course - which I'm not counting totally off as a possibility).

If I was a wolf and Aganzir was not on my wolf-pack I'd sure have tried to kill her: whether she'd be a competing wolf or a gifted - positive outcome for my wolf-pack both ways.

Might I add a third explanation for the Night kill of Mr. phantom? It might have been nothing you said or seemed to know or think on D1. It might have been just them removing you from the list of the living as a possibly dangerous rival wolf / influential villager aka. as someone who might thwart their plans later on or just leaving the village without one loud, sharp and critical voice to better orchestrate their schemes?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

It might have been just them removing you from the list of the living as a possibly dangerous rival wolf / influential villager aka. as someone who might thwart their plans later on or just leaving the village without one loud, sharp and critical voice to better orchestrate their schemes?

It did occur to me, but I sort of have that idea on hold for now seeing as no one has really stood up and tried to lead the village on a terrible tactical path. But I suppose that wouldn't be seen until Day 3 anyway seeing as the Dead have no info to give them today. Okay, so yes, that is a possibility to keep the eyes open for.

And in the meantime, we're just killing time until the voting gets rolling. We can't take action until they do, so it's a waiting game. Bleh.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

And of course Nerwen today bolded a "my shining star" at Shasta. So maybe them....?

And today Shasta signaled back, similarly in bold "my sun in splendour". So like I said, a possible Lover combo, and does that make it slightly less likely that they are WWs no matter what? Because would a WW fake being a Lover? Wouldn't that make them a more likely Night kill? I faked a Lover connection because I didn't mind dying, thus I'm itching to extend an innocent label to anyone who does the same, but perhaps I shouldn't?

What do you think?

[Nogrod]

I think the thing between Nerwen and Shasta goes far back and occurs in every game they play, calling each other with over-honeyed terms... So I wouldn't go making any inferences from that.

I've almost read the thread through but need now to prepare some late night dinner for Lommy & Legate who are just coming here after a day of renovating their flat.

Just a few thoughts I've picked along while reading...

It seems Rune’s death is not that odd it felt to me in the first place – or how odd you tp like to paint it.

Aganzir is too careful and observant for her own good (she had thought fex. that tp will call the shots here as both me & Rune are Europeans so that you tp most probably get the final say). Also she is backing Sally whom I tend to suspect for several reasons.

I'm a bit uneasy with Greenie and Lottie

(That's like without reading the last page through)

And you're right. There's little to do before people start voting - except to try and collect our thoughts...

See you soonish (aka. an hour or two).

[the phantom]

Okay, so I have to ask- who are your Seer suspects?

Fact is, since Agan is one of the only sensible possibilities at the moment, how can we justify putting her under the gun.

In this game format everything is an absolute mess.
1) You can't tell if you've lynched a Wolf.
2) You can't tell if a Wolf was night killed.
3) Wolf-on-Wolf means nothing because there are separate packs, therefore voting is less telling than usual.
4) Wolves can't tell if someone looks Seerish because they don't know who all the Wolves are, thus night kill choices aren't as telling as usual.

The fact is, the double-dream Seer is BY FAR the best (maybe the only) thing the village has going for it in terms of making rational decisions, thus our top priority early in the game is NOT lynching WWs, but rather our highest calling is avoiding lynching possible Seers.

So even if Agan is 75% likely to be a WW, I still wouldn't kill her if she is 25% likely to be the Seer.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Oh, and Rune- if I had been the Hunter I would've chosen ++Phantom as my Hunt victim in the early going, until I had some information to go on.

The narcissistic play, I am not surprised.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rune

The narcissistic play, I am not surprised.

Heh, I wouldn't say that. Rather, the cautious play. As a Hunter I'd be much more terrified of blowing it than excited about the prospect of hitting it, if you follow.

As I said earlier, this village is rather blind so as a Hunter I'd almost feel like I was more of a threat to the village than to the Wolves. Well, statistically speaking that's true!

Thus I would hunt ++myself because I'd be scared of accidentally killing someone valuable. A Hunter is much more of an asset late in the game because (1) he can reveal & be ruled out, (2) Baddies may be afraid to kill him after the reveal thus he possibly survives that night to be a known innocent the following day as well (3) the percentage of hitting a Baddie increases as the village population decreases. So my Hunter strategy would be to refuse to use my Gift and try to stay alive long enough to make my Gift a factor.

[the phantom]

Anyway, while we're waiting around we should share music/sports/humor links on YouTube or something. And make the innocent wonder why on earth the Dead thread is so active.

Also, did anyone notice the first letters of Boro's first three posts? F-B-I

It's almost certainly coincidence, but those are the sort of things I look at just in case.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Det

Originally Posted by the phantom

Heh, I wouldn't say that. Rather, the cautious play. As a Hunter I'd be much more terrified of blowing it than excited about the prospect of hitting it, if you follow.

As I said earlier, this village is rather blind so as a Hunter I'd almost feel like I was more of a threat to the village than to the Wolves. Well, statistically speaking that's true!

Thus I would hunt ++myself because I'd be scared of accidentally killing someone valuable. A Hunter is much more of an asset late in the game because (1) he can reveal & be ruled out, (2) Baddies may be afraid to kill him after the reveal thus he possibly survives that night to be a known innocent the following day as well (3) the percentage of hitting a Baddie increases as the village population decreases. So my Hunter strategy would be to refuse to use my Gift and try to stay alive long enough to make my Gift a factor.

This level of empathy And matureness does not become you.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rune

This level of empathy And matureness does not become you.

Ha ha! But really, people ought to know that my ego is not my defining feature in Werewolf- rather it's an everpresent humorous sidebar. My defining feature is- I want to win. Nothing else gets in the way of that. (e.g. the last Dead Thread game where I was a Cobbler, some thought my ego was getting in the way because I didn't want to be lynched as a Cobbler, but in fact what was really going on was I was trying to clinch the win by lynching the Hunter and having her kill me- it was purely about tactics).

Originally Posted by Nog

How about the Champions League final on Saturday? Do the Spanish billionaires continue dominating the field or has Juve what it takes to kick them off the trophy?

Well, I'm fine with Barc winning if Messi puts on a show as he did a few days ago. But really England has won it a couple times semi-recently (Man & Chelsea) and Italy and Germany have both won it, so I wouldn't call Spain's run too dominant.

Originally Posted by Nog

I'm having hard times believing Aganzir to be the seer (in which I can of course be wrong). She looks nervously confident and scheming and (too)cognizant (too well informed), not seerish.

But the Seer is well informed, right? The WWs know three roles, whereas the Seer currently knows five. The Seer is the most informed.

And if not her as Seer, who else?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

But the Seer is well informed, right? The WWs know three roles, whereas the Seer currently knows five. The Seer is the most informed.

And if not her as Seer, who else?

Yes, but the seer works alone - one who can discuss things with other good players is much more widely understanding of the different aspects of a situation in a totally weird game like this.

I don't know who else, but could you give me a reason to believe she actually is the seer - I mean if we just stick with this kind of meta-arguments (nervous, tries to hide or not make any controversies etc.) they ill include half the village - well third or fourth at least.

I see you tp backing her very consistently and it might be you're right and she's the seer and you're a bright ordo guessing that correctly. But I think there is another explanation which puts you two in the same pack... with probably Boro as the third? (Okay the last one is kind of a result of two things I read within a short interval - your neat way of noticing Boro had this FBI and Boro's post #286 in the living thread which would fit nicely if you three were a pack together.)

The biggest trouble is, I'm not too confident I would have managed to spot one whole wolf-trio on Day2... and I am totally aware it might be just totally wrong. But it is the most coherent explanation for several things that have happened I can come up thus far.

But we can check people here and need not get caught in unnecessary pointing at fingers here. So let's continue the discussion. (And I'll try to reach the flow of the living thread)

[Nogrod]

I'm having hard times believing Aganzir to be the seer (in which I can of course be wrong). She looks nervously confident and scheming and (too)cognizant (too well informed), not seerish. But yeah, I need to go back to do some reading again.

Originally Posted by tp

Also, did anyone notice the first letters of Boro's first three posts? F-B-I

It's almost certainly coincidence, but those are the sort of things I look at just in case.

Nice pick!

How about the Champions League final on Saturday? Do the Spanish billionaires continue dominating the field or has Juve what it takes to kick them off the trophy?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm having hard times believing Aganzir to be the seer (in which I can of course be wrong). She looks nervously confident and scheming and (too)cognizant (too well informed), not seerish. But yeah, I need to go back to do some reading again.

Nice pick!

How about the Champions League final on Saturday? Do the Spanish billionaires continue dominating the field or has Juve what it takes to kick them off the trophy?

So The Old Lady is more likeable because she got caught?

[Nogrod]

It's just that the Spanish billionires have won basically everything the last two decades (except what Bayern has taken from them) and it would be nice someone else did for a change.