Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Nogrod]

One more thing that came to my mind while I was having a cigarette before going to sleep...

the phantom's little joke with claiming to be a lover just ten minutes before the DL kind of made me think about the issue in general. I'm too tired to think through all the ramifications myself now, but would like to bring the issue forth anyway for you others to consider - and well the future lover / ranger who comes here to consider.

The first thing that crossed my mind reading tp's "revealment" was kind of "of course, that's brilliant!" (well it would have made understandable his stubborness in connection with us possibly willing to check him as that would then have been in vain).

The clue sure would be that if the gifted didn't reveal us the gift s/he could observe us more "objectively" as no wolf among us would know to posture to the gifted in the right way. So s/he might get better knowledge out from this thread than if s/he revealed the gift to us (s/he could of course reveal sometime late - like tp "did", like after all voting is done or something).

But on the other hand, if the gifted told us of her/his gift, we could concentrate our efforts to help the village exactly on that D/N, and knowing the info we gather that D/N is the latest thing to go forwards, we could also think our decisions with that in sight.

So what do you think?

Surely it is up to the gifted to decide what to do, but we might help in thinking out some obvious problems in doing it either way - more minds find out more POV's than just one.


Okay, now to bed.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The clue sure would be that if the gifted didn't reveal us the gift s/he could observe us more "objectively" as no wolf among us would know to posture to the gifted in the right way.

Yeah that's what I thought earlier that phantom might be doing (even if framing me as his lover wouldn't then have made sense). And I think it's a good idea. The seer should obviously reveal as soon as she comes here, but for the ranger and the lover, waiting would make a lot more sense. Then the wolves among us would never know when it's safe to be checked (not that it's ever safe, you know, but they could argue hard for other people on the night(s) the returning gifted is here).

Another idea - now that the thread is getting longer, should we put together a summary post for the newly deceased before each new phase starts? You know, telling the roles we know and the general ideas we have (such as what we've discussed above).

Okay actually bed now.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Yeah that's what I thought earlier that phantom might be doing (even if framing me as his lover wouldn't then have made sense). And I think it's a good idea. The seer should obviously reveal as soon as she comes here, but for the ranger and the lover, waiting would make a lot more sense. Then the wolves among us would never know when it's safe to be checked (not that it's ever safe, you know, but they could argue hard for other people on the night(s) the returning gifted is here).

Another idea - now that the thread is getting longer, should we put together a summary post for the newly deceased before each new phase starts? You know, telling the roles we know and the general ideas we have (such as what we've discussed above).

Okay actually bed now.

That's what I thought might be helpful. That's what I'd do, anyway. Simply so you have at least something to work with once you are here, and then you can look at the rest more in detail, but aren't like "umm... hi guys... wait... I'll spend some time reading and then I'll be back..."

Anyway, bedtime for me too.

[Rikae]

Ok, bad news: I'm the seer.

Neutral? news: tp is innocent.

Good news: Mac is a wolf.

[Macalaure]

Two newly-deads and a bottle of wine. This will end well.

In other words, I'm here, and I'm ready and prepared to catch up on 6 pages of your nonsense!

Why did you guys not give out an extra vote yesterDay? You had one job!


edit: crossed with EVERYTHING!

[Rikae]

Also Boro, Lommy, Agan and Firefoot. No wolves.

Pretty bad seering, you guys. I'm terribly sorry. But why couldn't anybody have the common decency to suspect me? I'm always suspicious!

Not even you suspected me, Nog. I am disappoint.

EDIT: My next post, #239, at 9:36pm

Originally Posted by Me

Morm is looking creepy now. Why did I not look at him earlier? He was under the radar, which is weird for him, and now he comes out and starts steering things in... iffy directions. Grrr.

What do you think, Mac?

[Macalaure]

First: Sorry to Agan! I really did think you slipped, and then you acted the same way that I felt when I slipped some time ago. Should've listened to my gut and pushed a waggon against Lottie or Firefoot.

So Greenie is an ordo? Dang. For some reason, being hunter killed, I convinced myself you were a wolf during the Night, and Legate consequently the seer.

Do we know who was wolf-killed and who was special-role killed? If there is a good-aligned assassin in the game, I'd assume I was their kill. I don't see why any wolves would have targeted me last night.
So Legate and Rikae were wolf kills? Legate I understand - seer based the assumption that Greenie was on the other wolf team. And Rikae just because she was considered innocent by everyone?

Originally Posted by Rune

Also do Mac count as a dead European?

Jawohl!


Aaand here I was having fun reading the thread up until the very last post I had to catch up with.

You're the seer and you've dreamt me. Right. Nobody suspects you, and somewhere in the dead thread someone (forgot who) mentioned you could be the seer, so you snatch the opportunity. Well played. They're probably going to believe you for a good while, and depending on who the real seer is, and how innocent s/he is regarded, and how good s/he is at leaving a track, they might even continue to believe you over him/her.

You had to deliver them a wolf, of course, to be believable, and among the presently dead, I'm the most suspicious. Easy pick.
Agan and tp are innocent. Agan is virtually proven to be, and tp is extremely likely. And both are perfectly reasonable seer picks, of course.
Did you hide both your packmates among Boro, Lommy, and Firefoot? Would be bold, but why not? If one of them joins us at some point, the dead will not bother checking them.

As I said, well played.

[Rikae]

So sorry to spoil your fun, Mac. More wine?

At least tp and I can outweigh your vote at the deadline!

So anyway: I would very much like to check Legate, regardless of who joins us next. Between me and all of us, we get three roles, out of the unknowns Rune, Nog, Leggy & whoever.

Unless you want to confirm my role which would be understandable, I guess.

I hope the village manages to get their act together and vote early so we can empower intelligently...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

First: Sorry to Agan! :-( I really did think you slipped, and then you acted the same way that I felt when I slipped some time ago.

It's okay! I was suspicious of your insistence at first, but then going along with it seemed less and less important because your gleefulness seemed so genuine (unlike Lommy's who was all "GOTCHA you're so dumb haa haa haa"). Still, I'm super careful when I'm a wolf.

I also think Mac's reaction to Rikae's fake reveal makes him look good. It would take a lot of self control for a wolf not to do a little dance in Schadenfreude if he had reason to believe the seer had died with only one wolf.

You know what makes me laugh though? If Kuru hadn't changed the "Hunter picks her kill each NIGHT" rule to include DAYs as well, I would've hunted sally on DAY 1. And if I'd been lynched, the only information she could have brought back would've been... pretty much the only two people whose roles can be proven in this game anyway (okay okay there would've been somebody on NIGHT 3 but still).

I'm wondering - if Legate was killed as a presumed seer, the pack must have assumed Greenie was in the rivalling pack. Would they kill somebody based on that assumption, or leave it to the pack suspected by the "seer"?

It's very easy for the wolves to hide behind the "please check this person and let us know" agenda. If they can convince us to check ordos, or make it so difficult for us to vote without risking giving them wrong information, they will effectively impair our ability to influence the lynch. Especially this in Lottie's #445 was, well-meaning or not, very low-risk for the wolves:

We have fifteen Living and eight Dead. Couldn't we just assign two Living players to each Dead player, one to be given an extra vote in the case that their assigned Dead player was revealed to be predator and the other to be given an extra vote if that player was revealed to be prey? Since we have one too few Living toDay, we can assign the last possible result to the case that there is no extra vote granted, since the Dead have tied their vote. That way the Dead don't have to wait for us to vote, and we can receive their message loud and clear no matter how the voting goes down on our side.

[the phantom]

Well well... Guess I'd better get out my Rikae page...

Originally Posted by Mac

You're the seer and you've dreamt me. Right. Nobody suspects you, and somewhere in the dead thread someone (forgot who) mentioned you could be the seer, so you snatch the opportunity. Well played. They're probably going to believe you for a good while, and depending on who the real seer is, and how innocent s/he is regarded, and how good s/he is at leaving a track, they might even continue to believe you over him/her.

Well, maybe. We'll see. We knew this would/could happen, heh. A WW would false reveal just for the pleasure of making us use our Night pick on them instead of elsewhere. You're perfectly right, Mac, but do forgive us if we seem overly trusting of Rikae, as we're rather hungry for information.

Anyway, Rikae, my early notes on you truly echo your lament. When I did my readthrough of the thread I gave G marks (for possible Gifted) plus marks (when someone seemed clearly innocent) and checks (for red flags). You received zero G marks, so if you are the Seer that is fantastic Seer play, I must say! *claps* But, but, you received zero check marks while simultaneously receiving the highest number of pluses in the village, i.e. you looked incredibly innocent. Thus if you are a Wolf, fantastic play again. (Except for the fact that being too innocent gets you killed, ha ha.)

Anyway, who would want you dead if you were the Seer. Not Green's pack, since she isn't a Wolf. You mentioned liking Mac and Morm and voiced suspicion of Lottie, so a pack with Lottie but neither of the boys in it might target you.

Originally Posted by Mac

I convinced myself you were a wolf during the Night, and Legate consequently the seer.

Yes, you'll note we hypothesized Legate's Seership here during the Night, and if he was targeted as the Seer then the pack that killed him did not include Nerwen, Lommy, or Mith, because they would've been his innocent dreams.

Now Boro listed Rikae, Shasta, Lommy, and Legate as his innocent group of four yesterday. Why wasn't he suspected of being the Seer and killed? Because he had a Wolf from each pack listed as innocent? That would certainly take him off the kill list. Or if he himself is in a pack and listed a Wolf (or two) from another pack.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Anyway, Rikae, my early notes on you truly echo your lament. When I did my readthrough of the thread I gave G marks (for possible Gifted) plus marks (when someone seemed clearly innocent) and checks (for red flags). You received zero G marks, so if you are the Seer that is fantastic Seer play, I must say! *claps* But, but, you received zero check marks while simultaneously receiving the highest number of pluses in the village, i.e. you looked incredibly innocent. Thus if you are a Wolf, fantastic play again. (Except for the fact that being too innocent gets you killed, ha ha.)

If I may ask...

what did I get plus marks for?

[Macalaure]

phantom, I agree with everything you say, except:

A WW would false reveal just for the pleasure of making us use our Night pick on them instead of elsewhere.

I think a wolf kind of expects to be a highly likely Night pick, and confirming a wolf is among the best information we can get. So I think a werewolf would rather not be picked, and not the other way around. A low-credibility false reveal doesn't benefit a wolf much at all, since all s/he gets is one day of general confusion, but a high-credibility one that people are willing to believe without a check, that is very dangerous.