Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The reason (or the way it was achieved) itself might not be "fair enough" but it might be fair enough as a guideline for our vote.

Not sure what you mean here.

One thing we should be on guard against, though, is a tying our vote. That's one way the wolves could prevent our message about Greenie going through (and keep the village thinking Legate was the seer... maybe even to the point of casting doubt on a real seer reveal down the line).

There's going to be at least one probable-wolf around at deadline. Let's not give him room to mess things up for us.

[the phantom]

I was going to just follow Green and vote Shasta, but give me a minute to look at the options...

[the phantom]

Okay-

If Boro is the Seer we want the vote to go to Shasta (he dreamed him innocent).

If Firefoot is the Seer we want the vote to go to Nilp (she suspects Boro earlier perhaps reflecting on Shasta).

If Nerwen is the Seer we want the vote to go to Shasta (dreamed him innocent).

Any other factors we need to consider in this?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Okay-

If Boro is the Seer we want the vote to go to Shasta (he dreamed him innocent).

If Firefoot is the Seer we want the vote to go to Nilp (she suspects Boro earlier perhaps reflecting on Shasta).

If Nerwen is the Seer we want the vote to go to Shasta (dreamed him innocent).

Any other factors we need to consider in this?

Oh my...

Anyway.

Let's pick Shasta then and secure all vote the same so the wolves have minimal chances of swaying the vote, right?

Btw. there are some interesting things with Firefoot... I'll try to make it shortish - and soonish (to go to bed early today).

[Nogrod]

Oh, and putting my money where my mouth is...

++ Shasta

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Indeed. No need to delay, right? They also apparently have Lottie bagged, can't imagine what would have to happen to turn it over...

++Shasta

And really, Firefoot is now making so much sense there (e.g. raising the possibility that I might not be the Seer... unless, of course, unless she knows because she is a Wolf and knows I got something wrong? But then again, what... I didn't really post anything that conclusive). I really hope she's innocent, and she started acting really helpfully and all.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And really, Firefoot is now making so much sense there

Earlier toDay she argued for lynching the ranger...

It is an interesting read, her posting that is.

I'll be back with it soon as I can.

[Nogrod]

Firefoot


She seems to start every Day with a theoretical analysis of something. D1 it is the deliberate tie, on D2 it is how different sides would have either wished or not wished for the tie, and on D3 she counts possible innocent vs. wolf ratios among the dead / living.

The third one is actually followed by an interesting thing:

Originally Posted by Ff#406

The significance of this is that if either of the wolf packs is missing members, I would think they would be getting a bit nervous/desperate (depending on how many missing members...), not knowing whether the other pack is in similar shape. Could be telling toDay (for comparison, at the start of Day 2, there was a 51% all the people killed were innocent). (Hmm…)

How come she thinks about these things as the very first thing of the Day - maybe it's something very close?


On D2 she clearly goes nudging both Rikae and Mac in a way I'm used to see more from the wolves - but it is not anything conclusive of course as the innocents can test the waters as well.

With Rikae she jumps quite fast to Nerwen’s question whether Rikae actually knew Rune was killed because he was looking gifted (#253) by saying

Originally Posted by Ff

I was also getting some bad vibes from Rikae, but don't have any reasons or analysis to back it up yet.

With Mac (#284) she makes the classic:

Originally Posted by Ff

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

Being clearly more active on D3 she has been all over the place doing many things - like taking care we set up this information line Nilp had reminded should be there. And being invaluable in there.

But then in #419 She first makes a pretty detailed speculation as to how the wolves could kill if the lover sacrificed - and then turned to speculate with the possibility of rather lynching the ranger!

#427 is the post which Lottie-wolf spotted in her frenzy and where she puts the Night-kills nicely in place.

And then of course her #534 where she defends herself by saying that

Originally Posted by Ff

I'd also like to point out that I have been pretty consistent in my suspicion of Mac, and voted for him yesterday

And since when has consistency been anything but the privilege of those who already know something?


It seems her suspicions have been pretty consistent though - and yes we can also speculate if she then is the seer (happily we can do it here). But I'll check them and leave you with this thus far so that you can get some first ideas about how interesting Firefoot is (I mean she could be anything).

What do you think?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Not sure what you mean here.

One thing we should be on guard against, though, is a tying our vote. That's one way the wolves could prevent our message about Greenie going through (and keep the village thinking Legate was the seer... maybe even to the point of casting doubt on a real seer reveal down the line).

There's going to be at least one probable-wolf around at deadline. Let's not give him room to mess things up for us.

Good point. Because especially now, that we will be (hopefully) getting a known (hopefully?) Wolf here to the thread, regardless of how many are already present, we should start to stick a bit to some rules. Therefore, I suggest we all vote as unanimously as we can, and so for Shasta, since he already has a vote. Nogrod's argument for "being fair" is not really worth the confusion.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Not sure what you mean here.

Getting hints from someone's reactions in RL can't always be avoided. But using those reasons then publicly is another thing, and not quite fair - I mean you can't avoid getting things into your mind seeing someone's reactions but in the thread we probably should stick to the written stuff... gah... it's not worth a discussion now.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I suppose the most likely scenario is that Lottie & her pack found me seerish.

Wait, are you saying Lottie was lying about the pack kills?

Didn't she say her pack killed Rune and Legate?

(x-post, saying the same as Legate)

[Rikae]

Well, why wouldn't she lie, especially if I was on the trail of her packmate...

However, I just noticed in #490, Lommy calls for someone to look at me for
seer-hints. Would she do that, knowing it would point back to her?
Then again, that could be exactly what she'd do... call for someone else to do it in the midst of a long post, and then distract everyone with Legate-was-the-seer talk.

[the phantom]

Hmmm... Guess I'll have to do a separate exam with the kills flipped.