Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[the phantom]

In complete seriousness, and with the expectation of receiving an honest result, all games aside-

Lottie, did you truly kill Legate?

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Fact is, unless other information contradicts it, we're considering both of you Wolves. Thus-

I'm thinking it might be in our mutual best interest to be up front about these kills because-
(1) It would help us ALL hypothesize the truth of the Unknown role. (For instance, if neither pack killed Legate I might have a workable theory.) Knowing this information could help both Goods and Bads attempt to impact the outcome in a way beneficial to their sides (just based on having more knowledge).
(2) It might help us catch the opposing pack. Now, you might say it could help us catch your own, but your own kill motivations are always going to be shrouded in the usual layer of bluff/double-bluff etc. thus we can't draw better conclusions about your pack than we can the other pack. So if your kill was well thought out that may give you the edge in that we'd learn more from the other pack kill than yours.

[Aganzir]

I started this thing over 24 hours ago but friends distracted me. Better late than never though!

DAY 1 and 2 opinions separated by |||
Brackets indicate a vague/changing opinion

NIGHT 2 VICTIMS

phantom suspected: Nogrod, Lottie, Mac, Firefoot
phantom found innocent: Aganzir, Boro, sally, Nilp

Rune suspected: Greenie
Rune found innocent: (Form)

**

NIGHT 3 VICTIMS

Macalaure suspected: Aganzir ||| Aganzir, (Legate,) Firefoot, Form, sally, Lottie
Macalaure found innocent: Rikae, Firefoot, Nilp, Legate, Greenie ||| Rikae, Legate morm, Eomer, Lommy, Lalaith, Mith

Rikae suspected: Lommy, Greenie, Mac, phantom ||| Greenie, Firefoot, Lottie
Rikae found innocent: ||| Agan, Mac, morm, (Firefoot)

Legate suspected: Greenie ||| Greenie, Boro, Firefoot, Lottie, Aganzir, (mentioned earlier but later put on his second-best zone: sally, McCab, Mac)
Legate found innocent: (Nog, Lommy, Form, Kath, Shasta, morm, Mith, Rune, Nerwen) ||| Nerwen, Lommy, Mith

Some things I noticed:

• Both Lottiepack and Macpack had a reason to kill phantom. Neither had a more likely reason to kill Rune than the other.
• I think it's certainly interesting that everybody who's been night killed so far (except Rune) has suspected both Lottie and Firefoot.
• On NIGHT 3, both Rikae and Legate had suspected Mac before but felt better about him later.
• It almost feels like both wolf packs wanted to frame Greenie.
• Everybody who died in the latter set found morm more or less innocent.
• Firefoot and Mac as fellows doesn't make sense but Firefoot and Lottie might. Will check later.

Anything else?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by phantom

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Your mom killed Rikae.


I'm thinking about being productive and giving my thoughts about who Lottie's fellows and who the other three wolves might be, but since you guys wouldn't take it at face value anyway, what's the point. Worse, you would probably try to turn it all upside down for any hint of who "my packmates" are.

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Your mom killed Rikae.


I'm thinking about being productive and giving my thoughts about who Lottie's fellows and who the other three wolves might be, but since you guys wouldn't take it at face value anyway, what's the point. Worse, you would probably try to turn it all upside down for any hint of who "my packmates" are.

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

If you were innocent, we would probably find out eventually from Nerwen or the seer, so why not go ahead and make your contribution?

All of our work here will only be appreciated posthumously, anyway.

[the phantom]

I'm with you so far, Rikae. So then what on earth was Sally up to if Lottie-Nerwen are together?

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm thinking about being productive

Your mom is thinking about being productive.

Originally Posted by Mac

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

Well then. I will agree to it as an experiment if you agree to include an explanation(s) of Nerwen's PM dream as part of the package.

[the phantom]

Also, has it already been noted that Lottie's plea to her pack and the village to kill Firefoot may have been cover for someone in her own pack? Telling her own pack (Firefoot) obviously wouldn't make her kill herself, and if the village tries it FF can just tell them not to be silly and do what Lottie wanted them to do, since obviously Lottie can't be trusted. Just saying.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by the phantom

In complete seriousness, and with the expectation of receiving an honest result, all games aside-

Lottie, did you truly kill Legate?

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Well, but I can be lazy and make you lot work harder by analyzing all possible combinations. I can still get the same amount of information about the other pack without potentially exposing my own packmates. If you guys stumble upon something, I will confirm whether or not it was the correct scenario and whether or not you've actually caught a wolf. Have fun.

Originally Posted by the phantom

So here we have a Wolf being quite truthful (probably) about her own Wolf kill, as often happens.

Hilariously, I wasn't at all truthful about my own kill. I will offer you two scenarios, and I do solemnly swear that one of them is true.

1. My pack did not kill Rune. I simply found morm's reaction to Sally's suggestion suspicious.

2. My pack did kill Rune, but not primarily because we thought he was a wolf. We did think he might have been Gifted.

Like I said, one of these two scenarios is the truth. You may choose which you think is more likely.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oooh! I know! Maybe the special role can commit suicide and be resurrected, but do nothing else.

And maybe that is me.

And maybe Nerwen & Lottie really are the lovers and it was all a scheme to get Lottie lynched. And now my ability is redundant.

Yup.

Seriously? But we worked so hard.

[the phantom]

Ooo, I like Wolves that are willing to play ball. We'll have to think about this...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I figure I'd go with it. I'd of course want the Lottie lynch to take place, but I'd tease Lottie as if I was in the competing pack. Maybe tell her Mac wasn't in my pack, and say that even without me we were going to win etc. Basically I'd try to tempt her remaining packmate(s) into Night killing me.

Not quite following you here, unless you're talking about an ordo sacrifice.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Also, Lottie should definitely adopt Nog as one of her packmates in order to throw us off by making us think she only has one partner left. If you do it, dearie, I promise I'll pretend to believe it just to annoy Nog.

Wouldn't it be cute if Lottie and phantom were actually packmates?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Also, if Lottie didn't lie, we at least know who's responsible for the dead Europeans.

*gasp*

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yeah, Lottie, *eat* that!

Lommy posted in the living thread about having to watch me crack up laughing at this thread. This was one of those moments.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now, kitchen calls!

Ooh what did you cook?

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think it would be best if we discussed who to scry but let Agan & Greenie lead the voting.

I think this is a very good plan, especially given it's easier for us to lead than to follow. Timezone-wise, I mean. I hope Legate turns out innocent too because what's better than dead Europeans controlling this thread?

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

Sadly, your reaction to Nerwen's reveal wasn't as convincing as to Rikae's reveal. Anyway - what do you think she was up to?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Agan

Not quite following you here, unless you're talking about an ordo sacrifice.

Exactly. But how likely is it that other Ordos would do what I would do? (Basically, does my reaction matter at all in determining whether Ff reacted properly?).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ooh what did you cook?

A late-night salad (lettuce, new cucumbers and baby-tomatoes) of smoked whitefish (cisco) and new potatoes with eggs and dill-oil.

It was decent for an early summer night. Missed the cool Riesling though.

[Aganzir]

I took the phantom's list from a few days back and expanded it based on DAY 2 voting. DAY 3 votes don't tell us much - looking at people's suspicions might, but I don't have the time for it now.

• Firefoot/Mac - dangerously placed vote, unless she'd decided to bus Mac.
• Kath/Form - low-risk vote on DAY 1 but just not worth risking it.
• morm/Lottie - Lottie voted morm early on DAY 2.
• morm/Mac - a DAY 1 vote would be totally useless, voted Mac again DAY 2.
• Nerwen/Mac - early DAY 2 vote, likely to be followed.
• Shasta/Lottie - throwaway vote very late on DAY 2, but he was the first person to cast a vote for her.

DEAD:

Nog/Boro
Nog/phantom
Nog/Lottie
Nog/Eomer
Nog/Shasta

Rikae/Lommy

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Some things I noticed:

• Both Lottiepack and Macpack had a reason to kill phantom. Neither had a more likely reason to kill Rune than the other.
• I think it's certainly interesting that everybody who's been night killed so far (except Rune) has suspected both Lottie and Firefoot.
• On NIGHT 3, both Rikae and Legate had suspected Mac before but felt better about him later.
• It almost feels like both wolf packs wanted to frame Greenie.
• Everybody who died in the latter set found morm more or less innocent.
• Firefoot and Mac as fellows doesn't make sense but Firefoot and Lottie might. Will check later.

Anything else?

Pretty good work there, Agan. For that matter, obviously if it comes to reasons for killing people, there might have been other reasons than just because they suspected someone; they might have just seemed Seerish (based on behavior, based on suspecting someone the Wolf-pack thought was a Wolf from another pack etc.). But generally, yeah.

Originally Posted by the phantom

If he's a Wolf he's nicely mimicking the innocent sound. We'll know for certain soon enough.

Thanks, you will. But I am innocent anyway.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm thinking about being productive and giving my thoughts about who Lottie's fellows and who the other three wolves might be, but since you guys wouldn't take it at face value anyway, what's the point. Worse, you would probably try to turn it all upside down for any hint of who "my packmates" are.

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?

I believe you are innocent! Now, tell me?

Originally Posted by the phantom

Your mom is thinking about being productive.

Now now, guys... behave

Originally Posted by the phantom

Also, has it already been noted that Lottie's plea to her pack and the village to kill Firefoot may have been cover for someone in her own pack? Telling her own pack (Firefoot) obviously wouldn't make her kill herself, and if the village tries it FF can just tell them not to be silly and do what Lottie wanted them to do, since obviously Lottie can't be trusted. Just saying.

Yes, that was one of the possibilities that crossed my mind: but it would still expose Firefoot, and since people know there are two packs, it would be dangerous. Of course, unless Lottie counted on the villagers not lynching FF because they would think "let's not waste our lynch on FF, the other pack will get her" and the Wolves from the other pack thinking "haha, Lottie probably framed an innocent, let's leave her around for the village to lynch."

Personally I hope it is not the case, although anything is of course possible. Depends also on the village, and on the Wolves.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Hilariously, I wasn't at all truthful about my own kill. I will offer you two scenarios, and I do solemnly swear that one of them is true.

1. My pack did not kill Rune. I simply found morm's reaction to Sally's suggestion suspicious.

2. My pack did kill Rune, but not primarily because we thought he was a wolf. We did think he might have been Gifted.

Like I said, one of these two scenarios is the truth. You may choose which you think is more likely.

Just reminds me of those old logical games. What if you put it that way for us, for instance, so that we could decipher it? You know, such as: "I will tell you three statements, one contains two truths, one two falsehoods, and one contains one truth and one falsehood. 1. I did not kill Rune. I killed Legate. 2. The other pack killed Legate. I killed Rikae. 3. I did not kill Rikae. I killed Rune."

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well then. I will agree to it as an experiment if you agree to include an explanation(s) of Nerwen's PM dream as part of the package.

Scroll up then. I thought about some possibilities up there. None of them seem likely, but one of them is probably true. (Unless something completely different is going on.) Obviously I can't explain them. I don't know what Kuru is up to with his secret rules either.

[Rikae]

Oooh! I know! Maybe the special role can commit suicide and be resurrected, but do nothing else.

And maybe that is me.

And maybe Nerwen & Lottie really are the lovers and it was all a scheme to get Lottie lynched. And now my ability is redundant.

Yup.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1 and 2 opinions separated by |||, DAY 2 and 3 by ///
Brackets indicate a vague/changing opinion
Known wolves underlined. Confirmed innocents italicised (yeah, only those we've found out here, just to be on the safe side.

NIGHT 2 VICTIMS

phantom suspected: Nogrod, Lottie, Mac, Firefoot
phantom found innocent: Aganzir, Boro, sally, Nilp

Rune suspected: Greenie
Rune found innocent: (Form)

**

NIGHT 3 VICTIMS

Macalaure suspected: Aganzir ||| Aganzir, (Legate,) Firefoot, Form, sally, Lottie
Macalaure found innocent: Rikae, Firefoot, Nilp, Legate, Greenie ||| Rikae, Legate morm, Eomer, Lommy, Lalaith, Mith

Rikae suspected: Lommy, Greenie, Mac, phantom ||| Greenie, Firefoot, Lottie
Rikae found innocent: ||| Agan, Mac, morm, (Firefoot)

Legate suspected: Greenie ||| Greenie, Boro, Firefoot, Lottie, Aganzir, (mentioned earlier but later put on his second-best zone: sally, McCab, Mac)
Legate found innocent: (Nog, Lommy, Form, Kath, Shasta, morm, Mith, Rune, Nerwen) ||| Nerwen, Lommy, Mith

**

NIGHT 4 VICTIMS

Firefoot suspected: (Lommy) ||| Lottie, Mac, McC, (Rikae), (Eomer, Shasta, sally - potentially suspicious for the Nogwagon) /// Boro, Lottie
Firefoot found innocent: (Nog) ||| Nerwen, Form, Rikae, morm, Boro, Shasta, Eomer, (Greenie, Agan) /// morm

Lalaith suspected: Legate ||| Aganzir, (Legate, Boro, Mac) /// Lottie, Mac
Lalaith found innocent: ||| Greenie, Nerwen, Lottie /// Firefoot, (Lommy, Nerwen, Mith - assuming Legate as the seer thesis was correct), (Eomer - didn't really say he was innocent, just that he had good points more than once)

**

Can't conclude much from NIGHT 4 though. I also included Lalaith even if there's reason to believe she was killed by Boro while the ranger blocked the Fang pack tonight. It seems the Grip pack killed Firefoot as per Lottie's instructions - I'm inclined to agree with whoever said Lottie believed her the Seer and tried to paint her as a rival wolf to discourage the Ranger.

However, there are a lot of leads back to Boro - both Legate and Firefoot (and Lalaith) suspected him. And as I said yesterday, everybody except Rune out of the first 5 victims suspected Firefoot as well.
If neither is a wolf, the remaining few are doing a good job slipping under the radar.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1 and 2 opinions separated by |||, DAY 2 and 3 by ///
Brackets indicate a vague/changing opinion
Known wolves underlined. Confirmed innocents italicised. Unknowns bolded for easier reading.

NIGHT 2 VICTIMS

phantom suspected: Nogrod, Lottie, Mac, Firefoot
phantom found innocent: Aganzir, Boro, sally, Nilp

Rune suspected: Greenie
Rune found innocent: (Form)

**

NIGHT 3 VICTIMS

Macalaure (KILLED BY BORO) suspected: Aganzir ||| Aganzir, (Legate,) Firefoot, Form, sally, Lottie
Macalaure found innocent: Rikae, Firefoot, Nilp, Legate, Greenie ||| Rikae, Legate, morm, Eomer, Lommy, Lalaith, Mith

Rikae suspected: Lommy, Greenie, Mac, phantom ||| Greenie, Firefoot, Lottie
Rikae found innocent: ||| Agan, Mac, morm, (Firefoot)

Legate suspected: Greenie ||| Greenie, Boro, Firefoot, Lottie, Aganzir, (mentioned earlier but later put on his second-best zone: sally, McCab, Mac)
Legate found innocent: (Nog, Lommy, Form, Kath, Shasta, morm, Mith, Rune, Nerwen) ||| Nerwen, Lommy, Mith

**

NIGHT 4 VICTIMS

Firefoot (KILLED BY GRIP) suspected: (Lommy) ||| Lottie, Mac, McC, (Rikae), (Eomer, Shasta, sally - potentially suspicious for the Nogwagon) /// Boro, Lottie
Firefoot found innocent: (Nog) ||| Nerwen, Form, Rikae, morm, Boro, Shasta, Eomer, (Greenie, Agan) /// morm

Lalaith (KILLED BY BORO) suspected: Legate ||| Aganzir, (Legate, Boro, Mac) /// Lottie, Mac
Lalaith found innocent: ||| Greenie, Nerwen, Lottie /// Firefoot, (Lommy, Nerwen, Mith - assuming Legate as the seer thesis was correct), (Eomer - didn't really say he was innocent, just that he had good points more than once)

(Nerwen presumably targeted by FANG.)

**

NIGHT 5 VICTIMS

Nerwen (KILLED PRESUMABLY BY BOTH FANG AND GRIP)

**

Need to look at morm and Lalaith's posts to find the third wolf. It would really help if we knew which kills they were responsible for. As I said before, a lot of traces back to Boro but not sure I want to start doubting him right now.

Also folks - remember that if Nilp survives toNIGHT, the more information we have for him the better.

That being said I need to get back to work, but I should actually be around in the evening.

[the phantom]

Just examining posts made the morning after my death.

Originally Posted by Mac

He did suspect four people in #130: Nogrod, Loslote, Firefoot, and me.
...
But why was he killed? Just because he looked innocent (many argued with him, but I don't recall anyone suspecting him) and made himself the village leader? Possible. Or maybe there is in fact a wolf (or even two? wishful thinking) among his four suspects. Did Nogrod's mates take revenge? Did wolf-Lottie or wolf-Firefoot get nervous? Possible, but it doesn't seem likely.

Hmmm... That's quite interesting if Mac is in fact a Wolf (and one of the ones that killed me). If Firefoot is a Wolf (as Lottie claims) Mac seems willing to set her up, and Ff certainly seemed to start that day ready to gun back at Mac.

Later Sally concludes that the Rune kill was an attempt to kill a rival Wolf. Morm thanks that's weird because surely the Wolves would try and kill the Seer.

Then Lottie-Wolf steps in-

Originally Posted by Lottie

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

So here we have a Wolf being quite truthful (probably) about her own Wolf kill, as often happens.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Anyway, in hindsight, I think it quite likely the phantom was an ordo and thus had no qualms about painting a target on his own back (as Boro phrased it) because he's a staunch supporter of ordos sacrificing themselves for the gifted, and I think he might have also been curious about the opportunity to seize control of the dead thread.

Rune, then, was notably short-tempered yesterDay. I agree with Rikae that this could have been read as a sign of a nervous gifted, and indeed knowing Rune I think it's possible he was. Then again he is quite grumpy by nature and the overwhelming rules hardly seemed to make him happy.

This makes her look rather good, as she doesn't give the official reasoning for killing Rune, and she doesn't seem like she would've wanted to kill me.

Originally Posted by Legate

So, basic ideas: the phantom would simply be killed because. just because. I mean, I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!! But, if tp is not a member of your pack, you probably consider him dangerous whichever the case. Imagine. If he is a Seer, you want him dead, if he is a Wolf of the opposite pack, you totally want him dead as well. And in fact, with the "kill me" encouragement, the WWs might have thought him a Hunter and wanted to get rid of him early on (especially if they felt safe from him??? Anyway, I think this is already a stretch, but simply put, there are like a million reasons to kill the Phantom).

Nice response here- very inconclusive. Provides a reason, but not just the "right" one. But insisting on denying the idea that I was killed because I wanted to be killed- that's the bit that makes him look a little suspicious (almost as if he's an offended Wolf). But not terribly suspicious.

Originally Posted by Legate

Speaking of that, given that there was the possibility that both packs might have targeted tp if he was innocent - I mean, really! Look at it, and he actually was targeted by one pack, and I think we are clear on that there are plenty of reasons to want to kill him, so the other pack might have considered it as well, and it simply didn't for some reason. - anyway, given that possibility, I would consider tp being part of one of the packs.

Here he expresses surprise that both packs didn't target me (and I admit I was certainly rooting for it due to the possibility of wasting a kill). But would a Wolf say this? In other words, "I can't believe the other pack didn't do this. Thank goodness we didn't depend on them for it." But that's a stretch. If he's a Wolf he's nicely mimicking the innocent sound. We'll know for certain soon enough.

Originally Posted by Boro

I've played a lot more with the phantom, and I think I'm one of the best when it comes to knowing his playing habits. When he wants to paint a target on his back, he will, and that's pretty much what he did. When he's an ordo, if he thinks he knows who is gifted he'll hang a large "KILL ME" sign and in that way try to protect the gifteds from the wolf-kill. That's pretty much what happened yesterday. Although, wolf is possible, because he would be a target for a rival pack as well, and we can't rule out that possibility completely.

This probably makes it very unlikely that Boro would be in Mac's pack, as he would've argued against my killing.

[Nogrod]

Top level argumentation from the 'Downs Werewolf

Originally Posted by the phantom

This makes her look rather good, as she doesn't give the official reasoning for killing Rune, and she doesn't seem like she would've wanted to kill me.

Firefoot and Lottie could indeed be a company rather than rivals. A bold tactics but in this kind of a game possibly worthwhile. With Lottie going like maniac there clearly is room for Firefoot to say "do you honestly listen to that madWoman" - and she can nicely remind everyone that naturally the wolves don't know the real identities of their rival-pack so Lottie is hitting in the dark as anyone else and well, is just a raving lunatic.

Kind of a nice trick, actually. If they pulled it.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Agan

Anyway - what do you think she was up to?

It's kind of hard to get motivated to post some long-ish maybe-helpful stuff if nobody appears to be reading my posts anyway.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

It's kind of hard to get motivated to post some long-ish maybe-helpful stuff if nobody appears to be reading my posts anyway.

I am actually interested.

Also, we're getting some (probably) quite interesting things going on here when the Day starts, so if you Mac want to be heard, or want to help, I think this could be the time.