Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Exactly. But how likely is it that other Ordos would do what I would do? (Basically, does my reaction matter at all in determining whether Ff reacted properly?).

I would probably have reacted similarly to Firefoot, but then, I have a tendency - wolf or innocent - to defend myself vocally against poor suspicions (you could argue all suspicion seems groundless to me though ). And in this case, Firefoot had indeed voted for Mac at a critical-ish moment.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

It's kind of hard to get motivated to post some long-ish maybe-helpful stuff if nobody appears to be reading my posts anyway.

Aw sorry Mac I went back and saw the post phantom just quoted here - I'd forgotten about it because that's pretty much when friends used strong language to tell me to stop stalking the game on my phone.

I want to say I'm not convinced of your guilt. At the moment it seems more convenient to assume Nerwen was telling the truth, but I want you to know I'll listen to whatever you have to say. I kind of wish we'd checked you toNIGHT just to be on the safe side about this, but it is true that Legate has more leads.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A late-night salad (lettuce, new cucumbers and baby-tomatoes) of smoked whitefish (cisco) and new potatoes with eggs and dill-oil.

Sounds lovely! I had a nicoise salad and actually now that I started talking about it, I think I'm going to get another plate.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Why couldn't the power have been sending THAT night's dreams (and that night the Seer picked you and Lottie). Thus Nerwolf could feed the village Lottie and pretend you were guilty and never be caught (because the dream went to her rather than the Seer.

How about that as an explanation?

This occurred to me earlier.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Agan

that's pretty much when friends used strong language to tell me to stop stalking the game on my phone.

Tell your friends that we are more important.

Originally Posted by Mac

Not Lottie and me, Lottie and one of her own packmates. She couldn't be truthful about the second dream, so she substituted me.

If Nerwen is lying, why couldn't it have been you, just dreamed as innocent instead (so Nerwen just lies about that)?

Originally Posted by Legate

Julius Caesar, Napoleon and a few others would want a word with you.

Your Mom wants a word with you.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by the phantom

If Nerwen is lying, why couldn't it have been you, just dreamed as innocent instead (so Nerwen just lies about that)?

Why would she have lied about that? Little benefit (some confusion), high risk (seer knows she's lying). Unless it's her main plan to flush out the seer? If so, the seer is, thank God, staying mum about it.

[the phantom]

Who says the Seer even knows the results of the dreams? Why would he/she know Nerwen was lying?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Who says the Seer even knows the results of the dreams? Why would he/she know Nerwen was lying?

So the seer's dreams of just one Night are sent to someone else instead of him/herself? That sounds random and not very likely.

[the phantom]

It would be very useful if it was believed the Seer was about to die though.

Perhaps the power of the unknown role is he/she can take the Seer double-dream and have them sent to a random Living innocent on a night of his/her choosing. BUT, in order to make the power work correctly, the unknown has to correctly guess the Seer.

So, perhaps the Unknown believed Legate was the Seer and was about to die, and so chose to use the power. But because the Unknown incorrectly identified the Seer, the power still worked but as a consequence the dreams were sent to a Baddie.
OR as a consequence an innocent dream subject (Mac) was killed and labelled as guilty.
OR if Lottie is lying about the kill, the incorrectly guessed Seer (Legate) is killed and the dream is sent to a Baddie.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Perhaps the power of the unknown role is he/she can take the Seer double-dream and have them sent to a random Living innocent on a night of his/her choosing. BUT, in order to make the power work correctly, the unknown has to correctly guess the Seer.

So, perhaps the Unknown believed Legate was the Seer and was about to die, and so chose to use the power. But because the Unknown incorrectly identified the Seer, the power still worked but as a consequence the dreams were sent to a Baddie.
OR as a consequence an innocent dream subject (Mac) was killed and labelled as guilty.
OR if Lottie is lying about the kill, the incorrectly guessed Seer (Legate) is killed and the dream is sent to a Baddie.

If this is the correct version, I'll eat my hat... Oh, I don't have one - well the next time I meet tp I'll bow very low indeed and buy him a dinner.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

So the seer's dreams of just one Night are sent to someone else instead of him/herself? That sounds random and not very likely.

Could be the mystery role at work, either intercepting for herself (in case it's Nerwen), forwarding it more or less randomly, or forcing the seer to forward it to somebody else (with or without seeing it themselves).

edit: xed with phantom

[the phantom]

Ooo, gotta run! I'll check in before the Deadline.

[Nogrod]

Let's draw the basics for the old folks...

So Nerwen

1) Actually received the message she told she received and was true with it's content - whatever her own alignment. Thus we should trust both Lottie and Mac are wolves.

2) Actually received the message she told she received but was not true with it's content - because it implied herself or another one of her pack (which would be an interesting thing if the letter (PM) told her to refer it true - what kind of sanctions would breaking that kind of ruling by the mod have?). Thus we could probably trust she has Lottie correct (with her own admittance) but would be kind of in dark with Mac.

3) Is a lover with Sally and made it up to gain time - and happily managed to hit at least one wolf (Lottie, with her own admittance - wouldn't that be annoying Lottie?), but that wouldn't tell us anything about Mac - but maybe that lover-Nerwen probably suspected him seriously?

4) is the seer and gave everyone her two wolves as she saw it was time to do something. Thus we should trust both Lottie and Mac are wolves.


Something seems to be wrong in all the scenarios (except maybe the first)...

I mean could you disobey a clear rule in a game like this? Without sanctions? (2)

What is the idea of coming up with that kind of out of the blue scenario if you're a lover? There must be something I have missed with the arguments for this scenario. (3)

Why would the seer kind of reveal but yet not make it so the ranger would feel it her/his duty to protect her the next Night? Or is she counting on the wolves thinking that she's just an ordo with this kind of luck fallen on her and thus not worthy of killing? (4)


But then there is also the matter of this special role: if the special role is that someone get's the seer's dreams then who did the extra killing? Or is there a kind of merry-go-around -role when someone is for one day the seer-receiver, one is an assassin another etc.?

And what has all this to do with itching and scratching?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

3) Is a lover with Sally and made it up to gain time - and happily managed to hit at least one wolf (Lottie, with her own admittance - wouldn't that be annoying Lottie?), but that wouldn't tell us anything about Mac - but maybe that lover-Nerwen probably suspected him seriously? ... What is the idea of coming up with that kind of out of the blue scenario if you're a lover? There must be something I have missed with the arguments for this scenario. (3)

I'll take a very quick look at her and sally's posts to see if there's anything that would suggest this is the case.

[Nogrod]

This option 3 is something I've seen people talk about (I don't remember who) and it kind of escapes me - like what's the point? Or where did this speculation come that Nerwen is a wolf? Surely she hasn't been in a position where she would have been forced to make that kind of thing up?

Anyway, bedtime for me too.

Looking forwards to seeing who can we share the company of come the Day.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This option 3 is something I've seen people talk about (I don't remember who) and it kind of escapes me - like what's the point?

Buy one of them another day by making the wolves prioritise Nerwen over sally while simultaneously letting the Ranger know sally may need protection. It is a gamble though. But if this is the case, they managed to flush out a wolf nicely so I'm not complaining.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Buy one of them another day by making the wolves prioritise Nerwen over sally while simultaneously letting the Ranger know sally may need protection. It is a gamble though. But if this is the case, they managed to flush out a wolf nicely so I'm not complaining.

It seems, though, that it would have been too risky... what if Lottie had been gifted?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This option 3 is something I've seen people talk about (I don't remember who) and it kind of escapes me - like what's the point? Or where did this speculation come that Nerwen is a wolf? Surely she hasn't been in a position where she would have been forced to make that kind of thing up?

That she's a lover? I joked about it. Well, yesterDay, before Lottie confessed, I thought it might be some sort of lover-scheme, but that doesn't make sense now.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

That she's a lover? I joked about it. Well, yesterDay, before Lottie confessed, I thought it might be some sort of lover-scheme, but that doesn't make sense now.

I discussed it briefly shortly after Nerwen's reveal. Still don't think it's impossible.

[Aganzir]

NERWEN...

• Mentions the lovers for the first time in her second post (it's always the case that signs of pack behaviour may point at the lovers as well).
• Questions Firefoot's vote tying plan in #44 partly because it may expose the lovers.
• Says the NIGHT 2 narration indicates the lovers are still alive (this is like her fourth post).
• Lottie calls morm highly suspicious for suspecting sally. Nerwen indirectly defends her, calling morm eyebrow raising rather than highly suspicious.
• Asks if sally (or Boro) gave a reason for voting Nog on DAY 1.

• Okay. So that’s what you are, Sally. Let me think about this.

• We could certainly do with some information– and now the wolves will be searching frantically for Sally's lover, so the longer we delay her death the more chance she has of not getting resurrected at all. On the other hand, or paw, she isn’t a wolf. (At least, I don’t see why a wolf-Sally would be making a false reveal right now.)

• Really hopes Kuru won't answer Nilp's question about the lovers' gender.
• It was over 7 hours into the DAY before she started asking questions about Lottie and others.
• Says the village need to think the lynching sally business over, and voting for her right now would be very suspicious. This a little before her reveal.

SALLY...

• Before her reveal she didn't say anything about the lovers or about Nerwen.
• Mentions they have a new plan to protect her lover and it requires the ranger.
• Her belated DAY 1 commentary ends with:

  More on that in a bit. When last I read the thread, it sounded like Nerwen had something important to share, so I’ll check in on that and then sink my lack of teeth into Day 2 after I grab some lunch.

• Explains to Lalaith Nerwen very rarely votes on DAY 1.

Not conclusive but nothing suggests they couldn't be lovers.

(Why did I spend half an hour on this at 3 in the morning?)