Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Formendacil]

Well, that was less to catch up on than I was expecting--I guess Monday is a busy day (and/or all the talkative people are over on the Dead Thread).

It seems that Boro has declined to establish or deny a connection to Nerwen's PM--fair enough, even if I'd have preferred at least a verbal "I'm not going to confirm or deny it."

Looking at the current List of the Living, here are my current impressions:

Definitely Innocent:
Formendacil
satansaloser2005

--I suppose the theoretical possibility exists that Sally is faking being the lover, but I don't see that this is at all likely unless the Lovers both died right away, in which case how would the wolf playing at it even know that?

Most Likely Innocent:
Boromir88
Nerwen

--It's possible Boro is not the Special Role, but that's not why I put him here. I'm willing to believe he is; my tiny hesitation is due more to the fact that I don't know if the Special Role is on the side of the Village. It keeps making me thinking Werebear more than any other existing role, with a few special twists to make up for the fact that the Bear has no team. I don't think it likely, but I do think it possible.

Nerwen's apparent innocence is, similarly, convincing but not definitive. Not knowing where her PM came from (something that she may be forbidden to reveal anyway or which may have come through the proxy of our late, beloved Kuru), it's not impossible that she IS a wolf AND has relayed all information about this PM in complete, transparent honesty. Again, though, the fact that her lycanthropy remains possible isn't sufficient reason to think that it is.

The Rest:
Eomer of the Rohirrim
McCaber
mormegil
Thinlómien
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kath
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen

--These are in order of most suspicious to least suspicious, but it's no more than a Hobbit's cubit between the first and last of them.

The frustrating thing is that we don't know how many wolves are left--let alone which packs. If we've actually eliminated an entire pack (hence the one death less), then we could have as few as one wolf in eight here. On the other hand, if both packs are alive and one simply failed (either via Ranger kill or by going for the same target) to get its victim, AND assuming that we've killed two wolves in Lottie and Mac, we could have as many as four wolves left--a 1 in 2 statistic out of these remaining eight.

That seems less likely, simply going by gut feeling. One thing I wonder about is the Ranger. If the Ranger is still alive, their self-revelation would give us a third Known Innocent AND a record of their protections/guesses. Which is not to say that I think the Ranger should out themself (especially if they think we still have something like 4 wolves abroad), but I'm wondering if we could examine our recent dead and find a Ranger candidate. If I understand the rules aright, they have to remain dead a complete Day (so anyone lynched yesterDay or killed last Night would be a candidate) and could return. Both of last night's kills, Lalaith and Firefoot don't seem completely implausible (Lottie does seem to be rather beyond the pale there). And, in any case, it's probably worth going over their posts again just in case there's something to be found that might suggest Giftedness--even in Lalaith's case, if Boro *IS* on our side, nothing yet suggests he's omniscient, and who knows if he might have coincided with a kill from a wolfpack.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm not sure what to make of that from Form. I mean, there's no way a wolf has missed what's gone down today; but I guess evil-Form would make such an effort to paint himself as an ignorant innocent.

So is it genuine? Or a bold attempt at disguise?

[Thinlómien]

...? what???

Form, what are you suggesting?

Say, the dead empower Kath, then Firefoot what?? Is one whose role is known by the dead? But is she innocent or guilty???

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

...? what???

Form, what are you suggesting?

Say, the dead empower Kath, then Firefoot what?? Is one whose role is known by the dead? But is she innocent or guilty???

Heh. I actually got so caught up in lining up names alphabetically, I forgot about making anything actually WORK.

That said, I think it could be made to work. If we ask that the Dead confirm one of their number as known Wolf, we could potentially discover a third wolf (which tangentially makes me realise that Loslote was somehow left off my list. I guess only Sally gets left off--or should it be Boro, since he seems to have special knowledge).

Or is it better to discover a definitive innocent among the Dead? Depending on who it is--and I assume the Dead would have inquired about the most interesting names first--that might be more valuable for us in looking over the voting records.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Heh. I actually got so caught up in lining up names alphabetically, I forgot about making anything actually WORK.

That said, I think it could be made to work. If we ask that the Dead confirm one of their number as known Wolf, we could potentially discover a third wolf (which tangentially makes me realise that Loslote was somehow left off my list. I guess only Sally gets left off--or should it be Boro, since he seems to have special knowledge).

Or is it better to discover a definitive innocent among the Dead? Depending on who it is--and I assume the Dead would have inquired about the most interesting names first--that might be more valuable for us in looking over the voting records.

Not sure I understand. We can't ask the dead to give us a dead wolf's name, because they might not have any.

What if we just upgrade Firefoot's scheme [original version] from yesterDay:

(just deleted dead people from the voting options and replaced the phantom and Greenie with Rikae and Legate)

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Nerwen
If Rikae is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro
If Rikae is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy
If Legate is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer or morm
If Legate is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp or shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

I think this will create the least confusion, in case the dead have started voting already (TIMEZONES) and I don't think it's implausible they went with Firefoot's scheme again if the person they scried was on it...

I also strongly suggest figuring this out in the first half of the Day toMorrow.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Not sure I understand. We can't ask the dead to give us a dead wolf's name, because they might not have any.

What if we just upgrade Firefoot's scheme [original version] from yesterDay:

(just deleted dead people from the voting options and replaced the phantom and Greenie with Rikae and Legate)

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Nerwen
If Rikae is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro
If Rikae is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy
If Legate is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer or morm
If Legate is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp or shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

I think this will create the least confusion, in case the dead have started voting already (TIMEZONES) and I don't think it's implausible they went with Firefoot's scheme again if the person they scried was on it...

I also strongly suggest figuring this out in the first half of the Day toMorrow.

I saw this is our best option for now and we go with it as a guide for the dead to use.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Not sure I understand. We can't ask the dead to give us a dead wolf's name, because they might not have any.

To be honest, I'm not sure I understand either. I'm constantly trying to get my mind around how everything in this game works and the normal milestones of a regular game, which I might use to get my bearings, are mostly missing. If we did try to salvage my scheme, they would at least be able to give us the name of Mac or Lottie if they had no other wolves--and if they did, that would be evidence (though not quite confirmation) that no other wolves were still alive.

What if we just upgrade Firefoot's scheme [original version] from yesterDay:

That's fine with me--it does seem to have been better thought out than mine. It doesn't invalidate using it, but I agree with Eomer that we may have to consider Nerwen a lost voice this late in the day.

Morm and Eomer both seem to find me very confusing. Fair enough: I find Eomer suspicious and Morm oddly under my radar for someone who both posts a fair bit and finds me suspicious. The whole metaphor of being under the radar is that of concealment, so I sort of do worry about Morm, but not for any particular reason I can lay my finger on (well, other than suspicion of me, but that's hard a ground on which I can convince anyone else).

[Thinlómien]

(yeah, that's how I feel like, not knowing anything and having to trust people with really weird reveals - and not really having the time to mull them over - and having probably been wrong about the three people I've suspected the most - Agan the Hunter, Sally the Lover and Boro the Itch Man /end rant)

So assuming no one who's done a reveal is lying and we can trust the dead and some common sense:

Alive Innocent
Sally
Nerwen
Boro
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

Alive Unknown
Form
McCaber
morm
Nilp
Mith
Kath

Dead Innocent
Aganzir
Greenie
the phantom
Firefoot

Dead Unknown
Rikae
Nogrod
Rune
Lalaith
Legate

Dead Guilty
Mac
Lottie

The good thing is that if we've been doing badly this far (Lottie and Mac would be the only wolves we've got rid of), then we have a 2/3 chance of bagging a wolf toDay. That is of some comfort.

Personally, I'm the most worried about kawaii Nilp and McSneaky. Form and morm have seemed like their innocent selves throughout the game - and now Form is so confused I'm not sure he can be a wolf and morm has been helpfully sharp in a way that genuinely suggests an innocent trying to think things through. Mith and Kath? Not much data, but I kind of think both would be more involved as wolves...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm hopeful that today's votes are gonna give us more to go on. I can't tell anything about McCaber, Mith, Kath or Nilp at the moment. Morm has very interesting interactions with both Loslote and Mac early in the game; normally I'd be very suspicious of this but in a game like this I can't tell if wolves would be covering their tracks in such a way from Day 1. I think it's probable that he's innocent.

My opinion on Form changes by the minute.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lommy, I'm concerned Nerwen is away for the day without voting. I forget where she's based, but doesn't she normally vote early in the day? Might be better to pair her up with someone else in your scheme.

It would be nice to know that everyone is voting today.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Lommy, I'm concerned Nerwen is away for the day without voting. I forget where she's based, but doesn't she normally vote early in the day? Might be better to pair her up with someone else in your scheme.

What happens if the dead give an extra vote to a person who didn't vote? I assume we would still be told they picked her?

edi: xed with morm

[mormegil]

I was going to post something similar to what Lommy posted and I'm thoroughly confused by Form. The outline he laid out would be impractical as we know some of the role already of those who he proposed. Plus with only an option of one it creates a situation that makes it more possible to have a negative outcome. His behavior is extremely odd. He's quickly overtaking Eomer and Nilp for my top spot.