Arda Cup Football 2015

[Boromir88]

Two Towers Network - Group C Preview
-Boro88

*Team Name (Round team was knocked out in 2013 ; Goals scored - Goals conceded)*

GROUP C

Group C features 2 teams who made it to the final 2 matches (Tol-in-Gaurhoth the Champions, and Hithlum the Bronze match) and 2 teams eliminated in the Group stage. And despite several changes to all the teams TTN sees the same fate playing out...TIG and Hithlum will advance, Rohan and Isengard get left behind.

Hithlum (4th Place ; 16-12)
-Additions: MF Fingolfin, MF Forweg, DF Rochallor
-Losses: FW Hurin, MF Hador, DF Arroch

Hithlum is never an elite defense, usually just good enough to concede less goals than what the amazing duo of Turin and Beleg can produce. Swapping one horse for another doesn't weaken the defense, but no one should expect anything different from a defense that's "just good enough." They bring in Fingolfin to address the losses of Hurin and Hador. Fingolfin is a solid attacking MF, and of course there's still Turin and Beleg. However, they lost talent in the offense... Turin-Beleg-Fingolfin is not quite as dangerous looking as Turin-Hurin-Beleg-Hador. Still the trio will produce many goals and should with relative ease advance out of Group C, but it'll be hard to improve on their 4th place finish from 2013, unless the best partnership in all of Arda have a magical tournament.

Isengard (Group ; 2-8)
-Additions: DF Radagast, DF Meriadoc, DF Snowmane, GK Théoden
-Losses: MF Wormtongue, MF Nazgul #5, MF Lugdush, MF Wulf

Isengard perhaps has some of the most drastic shake up in the off-season. With several players changing positions and Saruman revamping the entire defense. A team that conceded 8 goals in 3 matches in 2013 definitely needed addressed. The additions do improve the defense, but by how much? They won't concede 8 goals this year, but Isengard also had a serious lack in scoring and I don't see bringing Treebeard down to the MF improving the goal-scoring. Isengard will get left out of the playoffs again, but they had a positive offseason and appear to be going in the right direction.

Rohan (Group ; 1-5)
-Additions: MF Eomer, DF Cirion, DF Ghan-buri-Ghan, DF Firefoot
-Losses: MF Brytta, DF Snowmane, DF Windfola, GK Théoden

Rohan also made many changes, but overall the talent on the roster is improved, and they're still one of the "low-budget" teams keeping their salary under 70 mil. Eomer takes Brytta's place in the MF, and that is an improvement. Then Rohan gets Cirion, Ghan, and Firefoot to replace Snowmane and Windfola, improving the defense. Hama steps in between the posts for Théoden, and that is a little bit of a loss, but with a better defense in front of him, the difference is negligible. As I mentioned in the "Surviving on a Low-Budget" article, I think the biggest issue holding Rohan back is how the team is organized. With Helm as the lone striker, he should be in the MF. The "Hammerfoot's" skills are better on set pieces or when delivering crosses and long blasts into the opponent's box, and occasionally being able to hammer home a long shot. Eomer and Eowyn should be the pair of FW who can work in tandem and run into open lanes. Rohan's 4-5-1 formation just doesn't fit the talent on the roster. IF they went to a 4-4-2...with Cirion and Firefoot additions improving the defense, Faramir commanding the MF with Helm to deliver set pieces, and Eomer and Eowyn as the FWs? That just looks like a much better formation, fitting the strengths of the roster.

Tol-in-Gaurhoth (Champion ; 15-5)
-Additions: MF Orodreth, MF Finduilas, DF Edrahil
-Losses: FW Thuringwethil, DF NilpWolf, DF Drauglin

I haven't included the changing new wolves and wights on this years TIG squad, since the depth of the TIG community is unrivalled when they tryout for the national team the competition is intense. I do include NilpWolf in the losses, since he has departed for Inter Beleriand. A defense that only gave up 5 goals in 7 matches has lost quite of bit of it's ferocious bite with both NilpWolf and Drauglin leaving and only getting Edrahil to replace them. There's no sugar-coating the fact the defense is weaker. BoroWolf had a solid 2013 campaign, but now being expected to fill in NilpWolf's paws and we're not too far removed from BoroWolf's 2012 debacle of getting sent off with a red card against The Downer squad and TIG not even making the playoffs. Don't get me wrong there is still excellent talent on this team, and the wolves have enough to get through this group (and I give them good chances to win this group over Hithlum). But TIG is fresh off a championship, so the necessary focus to repeat might be off, combined with the loss of defensive talent, I'm not seeing a back-to-back champion.

[Boromir88]

Two Towers Network - Group D Preview
-Boro88

*Team Name (Round team was knocked out in 2013 ; Goals scored - Goals conceded)*

GROUP D

This is perhaps one of hardest groups to predict. It features three 1st Age clubs that are investing considerable amounts of money to win, and all have a great strength, but a glaring weakness that could be their undoing. Then there's the low budget Arnor team, that always remains scrappy and competitive despite being vastly outspent by the other 3. In 2013 Arnor and Gondolin made the Round of 16, Real Valinor were quarterfinalists, and Anfauglith missed the playoffs but made additions to (they hope) improve their offense and put them in this year. Yes, this is a tough group to call...

Anfauglith (Group ; 2-3)
-Additions: FW Thuringwethil, MF Borlad, DF Draugluin
-Losses: MF Bor, MF Rian, GK Ungoliant

Anfauglith kept their stellar pair of Balrog defenders then added Draugluin and moved Ecthelion back to the defense. So, this defensive groups is just as intimidating and powerful as ever, perhaps even better. Then they add Thuringwethil to pair with Gothmog and on paper that partnership will be better than Gothmog and Ecthelion from 2013. So, in theory a defense that only conceded 3 goals in 3 matches should be better, and a better striking partnership should mean Anfauglith produces more goals? Not so fast. The loss of Ungoliant and getting replaced by an untested Haldir leaves one question mark. And is the MF good enough to supply the better pair of FWs with quality passes and better scoring opportunities? They weren't in 2013, leaving another question mark as to whether they will be able to this year.

Arnor (Round of 16 ; 4-5)
-Additions: MF Earnur, DF Nazgul #5
-Losses: FW Witch-king, MF Arantar

Any investors with limited funds need to emulate Arnor's philosophy. I mean just each and every year they manage to put together a competitive roster for a fraction of the cost of the big spenders. Unfortunately Arnor's run into the difficult task this year to win in a group of all 1st Age team and that may be too much for this sturdy and veteran group of Men from the North. Add to it the loss of the Witch-King and I don't see their offense scoring enough goals. Elendil drops down to pair with Araphor, but that's the weakest FW partnership in Group D. They have the spirit and fight to get a result and effect which 2 teams do get out of this group, but Arnor's not good enough to be in the Top 2. It won't be this year, but don't divert from your philosophy and you'll find yourselves back in the title hunt soon enough!

Gondolin (Round of 16 ; 6-9)
-Additions: FW Turgon, DF Voronwe
-Losses: FW Tuor, MF Salgant

Turgon's in and Tuor's out so Gondolin hasn't lost anything in the offense. Since they still maintain Maeglin, Duilin, and Idril the offense will be fine. The problem is Gondolin did nothing to address their defense and goalie situation that conceded 9 goals in 4 matches in 2013. And in this group containing the striking pairs Gothmog-Thuringwethil and Miriel-Nerdanel, I can't see how Gondolin will be able to keep these opponents off the scoreboard. As mentioned, Anfauglith has its own question marks with their roster, making it nearly impossible to call a victor. Anfauglith-Gondolin should be one of the premier and most exciting matches in group play this tournament,

Real Valinor (Quarterfinals ; 10-4)
-Additions: DF Irmo, DF Thorondor, DF Irime
-Losses: FW Orome, DF Tilion, DF Nahar

I think Real Valinor got considerable weaker this year. They brought payroll below the 100 million mark, but it's still quite high and they lost two solid talents with Orome and Tilion and just didn't replace them with enough in return. This is still a playoff team, simply because Miriel and Nerdanel are more than capable of picking up the loss of Orome as Real Valinor goes from 3 FWs down to 2. And Tulkas moves out of GK to take Tilion's place as the top defender, which he's also more than capable of filling Tilion's spot. Nienna moves to GK. So, really they shuffled some pieces around and still have the top talent in each position to fill the voids left by Orome, Tilion, and Nahar. But the additions just aren't enough for Real Valinor if they hope to improve on their Quarterfinals appearance from 2013. They should have enough to get through this group, but it'll be tough, and TTN places emphasis on should, since it's by no means certain.

[Boromir88]

Two Towers Network - Group E Preview
-Boro88

*Team Name (Round team was knocked out in 2013 ; Goals scored - Goals conceded)*

GROUP E

Anduin (Round of 16 ; 6-4)
-Additions: FW Beorn, MF Isildur
-Subtractions: MF Leod, DF Celeborn

Anduin's trying to make a push this year with their offseason signings and increased payroll. They're taking a few risks and everyone will just have to wait and see if Anduin's increased spending will pay off. The loss of Celeborn weakens a stout defense that only surrendered 4 goals in 4 games. However, working in Anduin's favor is having arguably the deepest mid-field in the tournament. Eorl, Haldir, Boromir II and Isildur are all capable of putting the ball in the back of the net and won't have to rely solely on one player to produce the offense. The sturdier mid-field play and keeping possession should offset the loss of Celeborn at the back. There's another risk taken with making Beorn the lone FW. However, TTN believes this is Beorn's natural position and best fits for his skills set. Beorn is best when he's in a berserk bear-form, and as a GK he showed a lot of inconsistency. As an aggressive lone FW, he should be in a berserker frenzy often and always looking to push the action.

Inter Beleriand (Group ; 5-6)
-Additions: MF Hador, MF Bor, DF NilpWight, DF Imlach, DF Huan
-Subtractions: MF Haleth, MF Forweg, DF Gorlim, DF Haldad, GK Turgon

Inter Beleriand were the biggest movers this offseason and are clearly trying to show the Arda world they are not AC Beleriand's "little brothers." The best player you lost was Turgon (GK) but bring in a better goalie (Huan) and also manage to sign Hador from offensive power-house Hithlum, then poach defensive specialist Nilp from the Championship TIG squad. And still have the funds to sign Bor and Imlach who can fill in supporting roles. Inter Beleriand has added quality to every position and looks poised to make a deep run this year. The investors not only spent, but spent their money well. I'm not sure it's going to be quite enough for a championship this year, but there is championship pedigree up and down this roster. Inter Beleriand had arguably the best offseason and still managed to keep payroll under 100 million.

Imladris (Group ; 1-6)
-Additions: MF Ohtar, DF Celeborn, DF Arwen, DF Roheryn, GK Aragorn
-Subtractions: MF Figwit, MF Gilraen, DF Varda, DF Erestor, GK Valandil

The loss of Varda and Erestor was huge for Imladris because it forced the owners to reload their defense. They found worthy replacements so their defensive talent shouldn't drop off. But those losses means Imladris couldn't focus on bringing in a stronger MF player to help their offense, which only scored once in three matches! Granted in 2013 Imladris was in perhaps the toughest defensive group (Angband, Anfauglith, TIG all ferocious and nasty defenses). They may be better suited against the teams in Group E, but I'm not convinced it will lead to enough goals to get the results needed to advance. Anduin's MF is vastly superior to Imladris' and Inter Beleriand is just top-to-bottom a better roster.

Minas Tirith (Group ; 1-7)
-Additions: MF Pelendur, MF Herion, DF Ostoher, DF Imrahil
-Subtractions: MF Eomer, DF Cirion, DF Firefoot, DF Earnur

I won't sugar-coat this analysis either, Minas Tirith are the whipping boys of this group and were losers in the offseason. 2013 they were in a group of death and vastly outclassed by Nargothrond, Tirion, and The Sea. However, their future isn't looking much brighter this year. They lost some of their top players and replaced them with well...nobodies. Even Imladris on a low-budget managed to attract some talent to bolster the losses of their stars. Statistically they may end up better than that 1 goal scored and 7 conceded from 2013, but only because they're not in a hellacious "group of death" this year. It's a mirage. Minas Tirith is in worse shape than it was in 2013.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Elenrod: Today: the staggering numbers. And no, not those numbers. After 629 days of waiting, 352 players form 32 teams, play 64 matches, for the sake of one trophy. It’s the return of the Arda Cup. The Matchday opens with a preview of the Arda Cup group stage, and we do so in stunning fashion, with not three, not four, but five pundits on the panel! First off, we have, finally a phantasy winner, Maikalomion of ArdaCup.com Stats Report.

Maika: Mae govannen. Yeah, I finally got that monkey off my back.

Elenrod: And the man who continues to deny being an economist, Adam Smith.

Adam: Noswaith dda. That's Welsh for ‘good evening.’ Not Scottish, mind.

Elenrod: And no, dear viewers, he hasn’t escaped us: captive blogger Felagundion.

Felagundion: I thought I was free.

Elenrod: Apologies, Felagundion, but you just fit so well in the show. And now we have two guests, because that's how special this show is. First, now a regular in the show, Iorithil of Quenta Noldorin Sport.

Iorithil: Before anyone asks, I’ve no book to promote. I’m still in the process of writing one.

Adam: Haha, defensive much? But glad you’re back.

Elenrod: And… joining the panel for the first time, to provide us with a Middle-earth perspective to things, it’s Louis of The Orthanc Times.

Louis: Hello, all. Glad to get the call-up.

Elenrod: And welcome to you. Now let’s begin with our preview, starting with Group A: Dwarves United, Misty Mts, The Sea, and Wilderland. Who would advance, who would be left behind?

Iorithil: On paper, the Sea are better than the rest of the group, but…

Adam: Yeah, their quality has not yet translated to success in the Cup. To be fair, they’ve been in somewhat tight groups in 2012 and ’13, so maybe this time they’ll finally take nine points from nine?

Felagundion: As for second, the Dwarves have the second highest wage bill, and they’re slightly more talented than the other two groups, but again…

Louis: I think Misty Mts will pip them to second place. They’ve got goals in them, and I’m sure they can contain Dwarf U’s attack.

Maika: I agree. We’ve seen for many years now that, overall, a good attack gives a team a better chance of getting out of the group than a good defence. That’s why Wilderland have a chance to put a scare on someone, with their Scatha-Thranduil-Bolg front line.

Iorithil: I somewhat agree that it’ll be down to that Dwarf U-Misty Mts fixture, but I’m afraid of the effect of refereeing decisions and the hatred both teams have for each other might have on that match.

Louis: Oh, I forgot about that. Especially now that there’s no Narvi on the Misty Mts to perhaps soften the Dwarves’ temper.

Elenrod: So to sum it up, we have:

Group A

1. The Sea
2. Misty Mts
3. Dwarves United
4. Wilderland

Elenrod: On to Group B, then. Angband, Doriath, Erebor, and the Havens.

Adam: A bonafide Arda Cup giant and a bunch of second-tier teams. And I have no favourite among said second-tier teams.

Felagundion: I think you can safely drop the Havens from the choices. They’ve had a massive drop in quality. Their best players, Círdan and Olwë, are probably the fourth- or fifth-best midfielder and defender in this group.

Iorithil: I agree with Felagundion. Doriath have a better squad, top to bottom, than the Havens, and Erebor have a much better attack. In fact, I think what their attack does to Doriath and how quickly Doriath’s front line gels are the keys to the group.

Maika: Doriath have now, in Eöl and Daeron, two top-drawer playmakers. And the Dark-Elf can score. You’d probably all disagree, but I think he’s the best attacking player in this group.

Louis: …Hm, the Dragons are better scorers, true, but overall, yeah. But do bear in mind he’s been playing with Fëanor for two years now.

Maika: But he also did contribute to 2011 Doriath’s title run. He’s a good player, especially when surrounded by good players… and he’s surrounded by good players in Doriath.

Adam: I dunno, man. Mablung had that hat trick against Nargothrond in 2012, but he’s not come even remotely close to a scoring form like that ever since. Maybe it’s just Nargothrond’s defence. Sorry, Fel.

Felagundion: That’s okay. It’s true, anyway.

Elenrod: To cap it off, your thoughts about the group?

Maika: Angband and Doriath.

Louis: I fancy Angband and Erebor.

Adam: I agree with Louis.

Iorithil: Hm, losing Bolg and Beorn will be a blow for Erebor, and Doriath have the better defence. Angband and Doriath.

Felagundion: The better teams on both ends, and with higher payrolls: Angband and Doriath.

Group B

1. Angband
2. Doriath
3. Erebor
4. The Havens

Elenrod: Moving on to Group C. We have Hithlum, Isengard, Rohan, and Tol-in-Gaurhoth.

Felagundion: I think this’ll be a short one.

Louis: Yup, it’d be Rohan and Isengard. …I kid, I kid. The Wolves and Hithlum, in that order.

Adam: I mean, what do you expect the Middle-earth teams to do? Would any of their players get into Hithlum or TiG? Cirion as a left-back for Hithlum? Maybe?

Elenrod: Who’ll take third place though? And would any of them have a chance against Hithlum?

Iorithil: To answer the second question first, no. And Isengard would edge Rohan for the higher consolation slot.

Elenrod: That was a short one indeed.

Group C

1. Tol-in-Gaurhoth
2. Hithlum
3. Isengard
4. Rohan

Elenrod: I suppose Group D wouldn’t be that foregone, with Anfauglith, Arnor, Gondolin, and Real Valinor in it.

Louis: We should probably get this out it of the way: Arnor have a chance. With Super Araphor they always have a chance, but realistically…

Adam: Real take the top spot, and Anfauglith and Gondolin have an almight battle for the second spot. I think Anfauglith would just about edge the Hidden City.

Felagundion: But didn’t you just say that 2013 Anfauglith’s midfield was, and I quote, ‘LOL’? Guess what: they haven’t addressed it. And they lost Ungoliant!

Adam: Hmm, okay. Fair enough.

Maika: They lost Rian over the summer, who was their best midfielder.

Adam: That’s like choosing which Kardashian you like best. But carry on.

Maika: And Gondolin’s switch to a 3-5-2, with Idril and Elemmakil perfectly suited to own the flanks, matches up well against the Gasping Dust’s 4-4-2, especially since they have no wide midfielder of note to help overload Gondolin’s wing-backs.

Iorithil: Yeah, I think Gondolin are, by a small margin, the second best team in this group.

Elenrod: So to cap it off:

Group D

1. Real Valinor
2. Gondolin
3. Anfauglith
4. Arnor

Elenrod: Group E, then. And this is one of the groups whose games you can view exclusively here on MenelSport. Anduin, Imladris, Inter Beleriand, and Minas Tirith are the teams in this group.

Adam: Hahaha, I just want to watch how Inter would screw this up. Surely they’ll make it out of the group this time, right?

Louis: Anduin’s the only team who could challenge them here, and on paper they’re much better than the Riverfolk.

Maika: Inter’s another team that’s switched to a 3-5-2. Their central midfield’s much weaker than Gondolin’s, but that shouldn’t be tested much in this group. And they have a much better defence—Imlach, NilpWight, and Beren, all proven players, forming a back three, with Lúthien and Hador bombing down the wings.

Felagundion: And you didn’t mention that they’ve somehow acquired the walking ticket to the semi-final, Huan. Wow. I bet that’s what turned NilpWolf’s head. He wouldn’t have transferred to such an star-crossed club otherwise.

Iorithil: I agree with TTN’s assessment of Minas Tirith. They’re a mess. They’ve lost three of their four stars, with Cirion, Éomer, and Firefoot moving to Rohan. Mardil won’t be enough to give this bunch a win against the rest of the group. I think they’d be hard-pressed to get even a point against Imladris.

Louis: Of course, Imladris aren’t in any good shape themselves. They’ve got no proven striker, or any goalscorer, in their squad. If the Stewards manage to keep a clean sheet against them—well, they’re probably not scoring on Imladris, either, but at least that’s a point.

Elenrod: So barring a karmic conspiracy, this group’s likely to end up:

Group E

1. Inter Beleriand
2. Anduin
3. Imladris
4. Minas Tirith

Elenrod: Let’s proceed to Group F, featuring Armenelos, Mordor, Valimar, and the Barrow-Downs.

Adam: Another group with two heavyweights, though one of them is flaky. But not to the extent of Inter though; Inter’s ability to wilt under pressure is just special.

Felagundion: Valimar won’t give quarter to Mordor or the Downers though, and Arien just burns lesser teams.

Iorithil: I agree. As long as Arien’s on that squad, they’re not a normal Manwë team. What is more worrying are the Downer’s forwards, the Witch-king and Bombadil. You get them on their day, they just score on you. Are the two favourites ready to shoot back if that happens? I think yes.

Louis: Well, Wiki’s far more consistent, but yeah. Him and SallyWight give them the firepower to scare certain teams, especially if Bombadil’s feeling it.

Maika: As for Royals vs Powers… We’ve been through this in 2013, too, right? I’m reversing my prediction from that time: Armenelos have a chance to top the group, but I think Valimar are the better team.

Group F

1. Valimar
2. Armenelos
3. The Barrow-Downs
4. Mordor

Elenrod: Group G, another group covered exclusively by MenelSport. And what a group it is: AC Beleriand, Nargothrond, Tirion, and FC Valinor. All four teams made it out of their group in 2013, with AC Bel and FC Val ending up as runner-up and bronze medallists, respectively.

Felagundion: When we lost Orodreth and Finduilas and failed to bring in players of higher quality, I’ve given up. Just please, don’t concede five goals to AC Bel. Or to Tirion. Or to Curufin. I mean, FC Val.

Maika: Well, AC Bel have lost a lot of continuity. The Imlach-Rochallor pairing was the bedrock of their defence, and can Húrin be as good a back-line leader as Fingolfin was? They also lost Eöl’s ability to complement Fëanor and the wingers, but they did get Tuor as a replacement.

Iorithil: Tuor’s more comfortable as target man, though, using his height to win headers and knock down balls for other attackers. Maybe they’ll have Fëanor and Tuor switching like him and Eöl used to do, except that it’s the Fëanor starting up front this time.

Elenrod: Okay, questions: who’ll top the group, and do Tirion and Nargothrond have a chance?

Felagundion: I’d be happy if the Cave Elves concede less than six goals total, never mind their points, and never mind if they get out of the group.

Adam: As for Tirion, they won’t give up, and they’ve kept a lot of continuity on both ends. But—

Louis: Fëanor and Curufin.

Adam: Exactly.

Maika: I think FC Val will top the group. They’re out for vengeance, and even though they’ve also replaced much of their defenders, at least they have the more settled midfield.

Group G

1. FC Valinor
2. AC Beleriand
3. Tirion
4. Nargothrond

Elenrod: And finally, we have Group H, featuring Middle-earth’s Barad-dûr, Eriador, Gondor, and Shire-Bree United.

Louis: There’s just no looking past Eriador and Barad-dûr. Gondor and the Black Tower were qualification rivals in 2013, sharing a group with FC Valinor, but whereas Sauron’s squad become increasingly improved, Gondor have steadily taken a step back. And Shire-Bree United are just a shambles, as a team and an organisation, as shown by that TTN exclusive.

Iorithil: Gondor have failed to build up from that 2012 knockout round run, failed to build up on the foundation given by their attackers Anárion and Eldacar. It didn’t help that Anárion was out of form in 2013. I wonder how he’d be this year.

Felagundion: I’m just shocked that Sauron’s bought an actual team, with actual defenders and midfielders, and that he has a chance of making it to the quarter-final while Nargothrond get destroyed at the group stage. Just kill me now.

Adam: Well, if they’re making the quarter-final, they’d have to beat the first seed of Group A, because Eriador’s not likely to concede first place in this group.

Maika: I agree, they just have better talent across the board. I wonder if NogWight’s gelled with the team this time. With Gil-galad learning the ropes of lone striker play, an extra attacker would ease the burden on Glorfindel.

Group H

1. Eriador
2. Barad-dûr
3. Gondor
4. Shire-Bree United

Elenrod: All right, then. Before we end, I’d like to ask you for any prediction for this upcoming Arda Cup. Last time around, Maika predicted three out of four semi-finalists correctly.

Adam: Oh yeah? Well, I predict that the two Beleriands and two Valinors will be this year’s final four.

Maika: Haha, that’s what I had as well. Although TiG and Hithlum… A possible Wolves-Real quarter-final clash will be something to behold.

Nilpaurion: As for me, if Nargothrond get a point—or, Eru forbid, three—I’ll be over the moon.

Iorithil: Again, I just want the games to start. I’m not any good at that long-term prediction business.

Louis: Same for me.

Elenrod: Haha, well then. Thank you, dear viewers, for seeing another episode of the Matchday to the end. We’ll be back next week with our predictions for the first round of fixtures, as well as phantasy advice. Until then; bye for now.