Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

What do you mean by the second option? We know the Herbalist has a limited supply of herbs.

I meant that the number of Herbalist saves might be limited to as few as three or four. They might also be lost when used regardless of if the target was genuinely afflicted or not.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I meant that the number of Herbalist saves might be limited to as few as three or four. They might also be lost when used regardless of if the target was genuinely afflicted or not.

I would even go lower - I wouldn't be surprised if the Herbalist only had two or three. With only five Nights to survive, three or four saves would make it too easy. I would guess the Herbalist has only one or two saves left.

I want to take a look at Zil, Lommy, and maybe Lalaith toDay, but I might not end up having a lot of time to really dig in. I should be around, though.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't think the Herbalist has any saves left. There wasn't any reason not to save Nerwen last night, based on the stall factor alone.

More to come when I'm not on mobile.

[Inziladun]

Well, if the Herbalist is at the end of the herbs, it's down to Bard to save.

In light of that distinct possibility, I still think lynching should start now.
If there's no counter to Kuru's Breath claim, there are obviously better picks than he.

[Kuruharan]

Welp...here goes.

KNOWN/LIKELY INNOCENT
Kuru
Legate
Lottie

UNKNOWN
Boro
Inzil
Lalaith
Lommy
Shasta

Somewhere amongst those bottom five I am convinced we have our three wolves.

Boro
I don’t know what to make of Boro. His play in this game has been noticeably odd. He has been so noticeably odd, in fact, that it tends to make me think he is innocent. I would think a wolf, even a highly distracted and busy one, would make more of an effort to appear more normal and helpful.

CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He is in danger of modfire if he doesn’t vote toDAY. I don’t think he should be a lynch priority.

Inzil
Inzil continues to rub me the wrong way while at the same time doing and saying some helpful things. He is, quite possibly, the most enigmatic player in the game right now. I could easily see him as a wolf but I can also easily see him as an ordo.

CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He might be a good lynch target…but for the time being I’d really rather not…and I will get to why in a minute.

Lalaith
DAY TWO she was still giving the impression of being helpful…without actually being helpful. While she seems ordoish my spidey-sense is going crazy about her. She always seems to me to be the sort of player whose level of seeming harmlessness and level of actual dangerousness share the exact same progression.

She got a negative strike in my book yesterDAY for suggesting we lynch McCaber because he might be modfired.

CONCLUSION: She might be a wolf. Not sure she’s the best lynch target, but she definitely might be a wolf.

Lommy
I don’t feel as good about Lommy after yesterDAY. She seems a bit too wishy-washy and trying to go with the flow for my mental comfort.

In Post 105 she says she wants more suspicions going around…which superficially seems like a good thing, except suspicions flying around is exactly the circumstance needed by wolves for them to manipulate lynches and at the time the Ward was trying to not lynch people.

In Post 138 she defends Lalaith a bit more strenuously than necessary to my mind. This post and Lalaith’s general behavior are two things that make me uncomfortable about Lalaith and consequently about Lommy. And I am also uncomfortable with her analysis of Shasta but I can’t really put much of a finger on it other than it just sounds like wolf defending wolf to me.

She’s also a bit crosswise with Inzil. And this is why I’m unsure about suggesting Inzil as a lynch target. Is it the sort of squabbling that suggests they are unlikely pack mates or is it the sort of squabbling that suggests they are trying to fan the public flames of rivalry too keep the heat off one or the other of them? She seems to have gone after Inzil more than Inzil has gone after her.

In this game format, is there any benefit to this sort of public wolf on wolf? I really don’t think so…but I might be wrong.

So, given that I feel worse about Lommy this makes me feel better about Inzil. But I could be totally wrong and they could be in it together.

However, I think the odds are one or the other of them has to be bad. I have a hard time believing that both of these 2 are our 2 remaining Innocents in the 5 Unknowns.

CONCLUSION: Unsure. Could well be a wolf…but might not be.

Shasta
I have a feeling that my opinions on this are going to be controversial.

On DAY ONE his first substantive post was about suppressing information.

Also on DAY ONE He defended Inzil, which could potentially be suspicious.

YesterDAY he was substantively absent.

ToDAY he starts off with a post that I think is far too pessimistic for the situation and seems designed to encourage defeatism.

Now for the controversial part…I think the attack on Nerwen points at him. Nerwen was not particularly forward in discussing plans or ideas on DAY ONE and yet she was the first person struck after the game got underway. That’s been bothering me. Why was that? Nerwen herself seemed puzzled by it.

They have a lot of familiarity with each other and if anybody would be able to smoke him out quickly if he was bad it would be her. Shasta might have feared this and persuaded his packmates that Nerwen had to be the priority to eliminate. Also, his relative absence while Nerwen was still in the game makes me uneasy about him on this point.

CONCLUSION: I might be completely off base on this one. I admit that, and am certainly open to discussion and persuasion on this, but out of all the players in the game right now, I feel worst about him.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

We probably need to assume the worst case scenario and assume that McCaber was an ordo.

That should be the basic approach.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Now Nerwen is confirmed as having been one. I don't think I will be able to do a numbers post tonight (I will tomorrow, which is still part of toNIGHT ) but we may have reached a point where we are going to have to try some lynches. Something I did not want to say before now is that lynches are not just a tool of the village, they are also a tool of the wolves and we are now in a precarious position. If we do lynch toDAY we need to do it right.

Indeed, that is the biggest problem I see here. It would probably still be possible to wait things out if we still have the Gifteds around (I think at least we could rule out the possibility of Nerwen being the Herbalist, since the rules say "they are allowed to treat themselves" - unless she had only one power to use, but really, I don't believe the role would be that useless. Same thing also goes for Cab, unless Lottie has been a Wolf all along, because somebody had to heal her). There are eight of us, so probably three Wolves and five innocents. If we lynch well, it will go much better, if not, then so much worse, of course. But I think in any case, it's about time we started trying to make sense of who might be a Wolf.

That's why, incidentally, I think people should say whom they would like to see lynched as soon as possible (can of course change later. But maybe we should agree on a pre-deadline for that kind of voting, say ten hours from now, so that a Rep can be chosen afterwards? Or, of course, if we choose a trustworthy Rep early enough - I would not be opposed to choosing Lottie again, btw - and if that Rep then promises to pass on the vote of the majority, it would work as well? And maybe that would even be better?).

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

The question I think we should start off asking ourselves is why did the wolves target Lottie and Nerwen first? Are the wolves people who would feel particularly threatened by them in some way?

I think that should be the thing to do now, because that is literally the only evidence we have about how the Wolves might think. With Lottie however, I think the selection would be rather arbitrary - given that it had to happen on Night 1, i.e. before the game even started. I would assume they'd simply pick someone whom they thought was not likely to be protected by the Bard, i.e. not too "obvious" target, but also not too "unobvious"... I think Lottie fits the bill.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I think a lynch needs to happen at this point. The odds are at least better now of striking evil.

Just as a remark, I am uncomfortable with that rhetoric. "Must" and "evil" sound very zealous, which would be a nice guise for a WW.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

This statement has a bit of an Captain Obvious air though, like evil trying to look nice and helpful.

I was actually thinking the same. However, I am thinking also another thing - that Inzil seems to be very happy now that Nerwen, whom he suspected yesterDay, died, to start immediately quite aggressively question Kuru.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Maybe Nerwen gave off Gifted vibes? That's the only reason I can come up with.

I guess that would be the main thing the WWs would go after. But the question would be, what kind of vibes? I must say it crossed my mind yesterDay morning that she might be Gifted since she shouted "woe is me, we will ALL die" as opposed to something that would concern only herself, but that was after she had already been targeted, so that would not qualify as a reason for the WWs. And apparently (or hopefully) that was misinterpretation anyway.
Also, the thing about this game is that if somebody gave too obvious vibes, they would likely not be targeted because the WWs would have a good reason to assume the Bard might notice as well and they might be protected. Nonetheless, there would probably be reasons why her and not somebody else.

...ok, I actually wanted to look through her posts later, but now did it even before finishing this post, so: the general feel from Nerwen's Day 1 posts is that she probably just looked innocent and helpful. Because she really does not say very much most of the time, and most of all, she is not really in a conflict with anybody. So that does not really seem like there would be traces to anyone, positive or negative, before the WWs picked her. Afterwards, the Day 2 is of course more dynamic, but that is a completely different cup of tea.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I think people should say whom they would like to see lynched as soon as possible (can of course change later. But maybe we should agree on a pre-deadline for that kind of voting, say ten hours from now, so that a Rep can be chosen afterwards? Or, of course, if we choose a trustworthy Rep early enough - I would not be opposed to choosing Lottie again, btw - and if that Rep then promises to pass on the vote of the majority, it would work as well? And maybe that would even be better?).

I would go with Lottie again as rep.

As for lynch choices, I would say no for Legate and Kuru (unless his Breath claim is challenged).

Based on that, and the fact that it's hard to see Lalaith as a Conspirator, I would put the lynch for Boro, Lommy, or Shasta in that order.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Just as a remark, I am uncomfortable with that rhetoric. "Must" and "evil" sound very zealous, which would be a nice guise for a WW.

I had a reason for putting it that way. For the moment I'm leaving it at that.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I was actually thinking the same. However, I am thinking also another thing - that Inzil seems to be very happy now that Nerwen, whom he suspected yesterDay, died, to start immediately quite aggressively question Kuru.

I was disappointed that the only one I had any strong negative feel for wasn't evil. Aside from that, crowing over her demise would have been recklessly stupid were I a Conspirator.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't think the Herbalist has any saves left.

Just a quick chime in before I go to work but I don't think this can be correct.

This is only DAY THREE. We've had one confirmed save. The way the rules read it strongly implies that the Herbalist has multiple saves. Now Sally could be yanking our chain in some way, but that seems an odd way to do it. That's the sort of thing people might be angry about after the game rather than thinking is a good joke and I don't think Sally would do something like that.

I would also like to note that this is exactly the sort of post that is bugging me about Shasta this game. Almost everything he says seems to have an unduly pessimistic slant.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Based on that, and the fact that it's hard to see Lalaith as a Conspirator

This just caught my eye, care to share why you think so?

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I would put the lynch for Boro, Lommy, or Shasta in that order.

Actually, whereas I have my uneasiness about Inzil, there is something to this as well. For example in regards to Boro, I have had similar vibes from him, and at least Inzil is talking and contributive and all. Whereas Boro is just sitting somewhere and not speaking at all. Also as a general thought, I would not be surprised to have at least a couple silent WWs (although I still think at least in the previous few Days, the village's plan of seemingly not lynching and just waiting it out would rather have forced them out to be active, methinks. That is, if I go back, also the reason why I am partly suspicious of Inzil being rather vocal on lynching. On the other hand, pushing a lynch would really make sense for the WWs only in case they weren't threatened (!) - important note).

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I was disappointed that the only one I had any strong negative feel for wasn't evil.

Understood. I can imagine that; having experienced similar situation in many games.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I would also like to note that this is exactly the sort of post that is bugging me about Shasta this game. Almost everything he says seems to have an unduly pessimistic slant.

Well, I think there is a certain generic approach Shasta has like this, almost always. Speaking of generic approaches however, where his proverbial psychic powers are in this game?

[Kuruharan]

Here is the latest run of numbers on a no-lynch scenario, discounting any saves.

DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen

DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3

DAY FIVE
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4

DAY SIX
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5

Now, my belief is we still have a few saves left in the can...at least I sure hope so.

That being said, I think we have reached the point where serious consideration has to be given to lynching.

I also want to say right now that I think Legate or Lottie are the only viable choices for Representative toDAY.

Player analysis post to come.

[Loslote]

First off, I regret to inform you that I will be even less available than I had hoped toDay. It turns out tonight is going to be the only clear night all week, so I have to run an observing session for the class I'm TAing - which means I will have to leave an hour before DL, and won't have as much time in between classes as I thought I might.

Since I don't know how much I'll be on, I will say that I do think we need to start lynching - the numbers for the passive scenario are no longer in our favor, so we need to start making moves. If I had to vote for someone to lynch toDay, I would say ++Lommy. I don't think Boro is playing very wolf-like - he's playing a lot quieter than usual, that's for sure, but when he's a wolf, I'm pretty sure he tends to be a louder, more aggressive wolf, not a quieter one. I wouldn't go for a lynch on him just based on him being quiet so far. Similarly with Shasta - I just don't think we have enough on him yet, and what I have seen doesn't strike me as being too far off the norm for him.

Lalaith and Zil I am concerned about, but I think my suspicion of Lommy is the more concrete of the three. Her tone in general has felt like she's trying to play it cool and like she always does, and she's been jumping on suspicions (like my Nerwen idea) too readily. I would go for her if I had to choose right now.

I would be happy with Legate or maybe even Kuru for rep toDay. I see no reason thus far to distrust Kuru's claim, and Legate has seemed trustworthy all game - and I trust that both of them will not deviate very far from the will of the people.

Edit: xed with Kuru and Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

This just caught my eye, care to share why you think so?

I guess it's just that she hasn't been very involved. That could also be said for the ones I said I would consider for a lynch.