Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Morsul the Dark]

Ok. So I'm voting.

Now it's time for me to say that weird thing no one likes.

I honestly think the bads have a lot more to lose than us. Not going to lie... gifteds to me, anyway, are less than helpful. You get reveals and counter reveals and a seer in a game where characters can change roles? I'm just not convinced losing them is entirely game breaking. Getting the evil wizard though destroys the baddies chances. Especially if we get lucky and get him day one.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I honestly think the bads have a lot more to lose than us. Not going to lie... gifteds to me, anyway, are less than helpful. You get reveals and counter reveals and a seer in a game where characters can change roles? I'm just not convinced losing them is entirely game breaking. Getting the evil wizard though destroys the baddies chances. Especially if we get lucky and get him day one.

The Wizards cannot be lynched, though I wonder (see above) how that plays out if they're put on the block, either by a lynch, or a wolf-kill on the Good Wizard.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The Wizards cannot be lynched, though I wonder (see above) how that plays out if they're put on the block, either by a lynch, or a wolf-kill on the Good Wizard.

Yeah, I imagine it just means that they are outed as a a wizard, but we can't really do anything about it, and we won't know which they are. And the worst part is, even if we did get the Evil Wizard toDay, they'd still have 2 more Nights before they could be taken out by the Good Wizard, by which point they could've worked all sorts of mischief.

[Morsul the Dark]

So... yeah I just reread the whole Wizard doohickey. I'm slightly less confused. But still think having a confirmed identity of the EW would be good. Then there are the visitors... oy I'm so confused.

But I stand by my statements.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Yeah, I imagine it just means that they are outed as a a wizard, but we can't really do anything about it, and we won't know which they are. And the worst part is, even if we did get the Evil Wizard toDay, they'd still have 2 more Nights before they could be taken out by the Good Wizard, by which point they could've worked all sorts of mischief.

Sensible, this. No help with deciding on a vote, though.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

In terms of actual suspicious behaviour, while my last post was intended as a joke, Lommy's comments on Lottie's "[eyebrow-raising]" behaviour could actually be a classic case of the "this seems suspicious but I'm not actually suspecting you" wolf-tactic to sow distrust early on and have evidence of early suspicion to fall back on if necessary. While I do agree that it's best practice not to discuss the evil side's tactics too much, I also think Lottie was right to point out that it's not necessarily the case that a wolf will be added each Night. Though, ok, talking about how this might differ from the GW and what strategies might underpin these differences might be a bit much.

I was, as usual, thinking while typing. I didn't like Lottie discussing what are reasonable strategies for the EW, so my brain went "suspicious", but as you can see towards the end of that paragraph, I kinda reasoned it would have been a weird/bold move from either a wolf or the EW to openly speculate about the EW's startegies in her very first post. HOWEVER, to do a Lommy flip flop now that I think of it, it *might* not be so weird from an EW. Like sure, she'd be drawing attention to herself, but as the EW would be thinking a lot about the EW tactics it might feel natural to her to post about it without thinking much? And for another flip flop: I always suspect Lottie on Day1 so I'm gonna give her the benefit of doubt this time. Probably. But she's really the only one who stands out to me so far, even if it's rather as "someone whose actions caught my attention" as opposed to "someone who's a likely wolf/EW".

Originally Posted by Eönwë

And the worst part is, even if we did get the Evil Wizard toDay, they'd still have 2 more Nights before they could be taken out by the Good Wizard, by which point they could've worked all sorts of mischief.

But that isn't a reason not to try to bag him today. If we can guarantee the GW can take him out on Day3 if she wishes, then that's amazing. (Yes the EW is a 'he' and the GW is a 'she'. For disambiguation. And feminism. )

I'm all for making up a way for dead thread communication, but it probably isn't the most urgent issue since the DL is approaching?

PSA: Nogrod probably doesn't know the game has started since he hasn't been here and it's 1.30 am Finnish time. I meant to text him earlier but I forgot but I did now so he should be around for Day2 I hope! I'll send Sally and Lalaith facebook messages too even though it's a bit late for that too...

Okay: next up: a list to organize my thoughts and a vote. It IS late here.

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen - seems like normal self
Inziladun - seems like normal self
Loslote - kinda shady but not necessarily (probably?) evil
Boromir88 - probably the most eyebrow villager so far, the overtly cheerful banter seems a bit off (I don't want to say you're not allowed to have fun but something about his behaviour seems like an act)
Shastanis Althreduin - I'll facebook message him too oops
satansaloser2005 - not here not judging
Eomer of the Rohirrim - predictably rubs me the wrong way, ignoring that
Morsul the Dark - seems innocent?
Lalaith - not here not judging
Legate of Amon Lanc - seems like normal self
Mithalwen - seems like normal self
Eönwë - if I was dead I'd empower him
Nogrod - not here not judging
Pervencia Took - not here not judging
Brinniel - seems like normal self

edit: xed with the last 4 posts

[Morsul the Dark]

++Lottie

Right out the gate she was giving strategies for wolves and wizards. I'm also interested in her mentioning wolf and wizard not being in contact. So the wolf has to find the wizard? If that's the case another reason to go for a wolf right? Keep the wizard isolated.

Edit X'ed since Boro vote

[Eönwë]

Kuru, are you counting Lal's vote?

Edit: Well, looks like it's a tie anyway.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Kuru, are you counting Lal's vote?

Edit: Well, looks like it's a tie anyway.

So long as no one else votes

[Boromir88]

Gotta love how these early Day deadlines always turn out.

This is exciting.

[Lalaith]

It's ok I've sorted it sorry. Half asleep and voting via phone. Good luck everyone and goodnight.

[Eönwë]

Just to keep things clear for future Days, see the following post.

[Mithalwen]

]++Loslote



Money where mouth is

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, going through Lommy's posts:

During Day 1, her first suspicion whatsoever was towards Lottie for discussing possible EW strategies, although she was being flip-floppy about that (several times in several posts). She also very strongly advocated for a vote and she was also the first one to actually go through with it. She found Boro the most eyebrow-rising, said about Eönwë "if I was dead I'd empower him" and called him a new phantom in the next post for his elaborate plans on Dead communication.

On Day 2, she expressed puzzlement on the death of Morsul, pointed out that it points at Lottie, but that such a conclusion would be hasty. Continues to think Boro "shady".

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

First off, I'm a bit puzzled by the choice of Morsul. It does lead tracks to Lottie, but that seems like a hasty conclusion - especially in a game with no seer. I'm sorry but my first idea of "why Morsul" is because in the last dead thread game he was (at least from my pov) majorly confusing the communication between the living and the dead, so maybe the baddies are wishing for a reprise. Or maybe they just wanted an entertaining start to the dead thread.

Also the vote yesterDay was a bit of a fiasco. I'm looking at Boro especially, who has continued being very shady toDay. Would it make any sense for the EW to act cobblerish and try to make people not take him seriously????

After that, there started a very long argument against Nogrod's lack of faith in the Dead thread. At the same time, she was posting many generally helpful suggestions (try to prevent a tie etc.) which made her (in my opinion) look more innocent. This might have been one factor for her death.

She also pretty much dismissed the idea of Wolves killing Wolves.

There also came her initial reaction to the Inzil-Nerwen incident, which went like this:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't understand why what Zil said would have been a slip?? And the suddenly escalated Zil-Nerwen spat is very interesting. Doesn't make either of them look better in my book tbh.

Afterwards, she had more to say to Nogrod about the dead-strategy discussion, some unclarities about Boro (but it doesn't look like she would suspect him), and agreeing with Lalaith once again that Wolves killing Wolves doesn't make any sense. Then, in relation to Eönwë's "conspiracy theory" about Boro-Wolf and EW-Lottie, she said:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I think that's not semi-crazy, that's actually one of the few theories that makes sense. It just seems quite unlikely that our top lynch candidates would have been the wolf and the EW, and bold of them to play it this way. But that's one of the reasons I haven't been too keen on scrutinizing Boro and Lottie toDay - we shouldn't get fixated on this logical but rather wild scenario.

In the same post, however, she continued:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And I agree very much with Lottie about Eönwë. There's something about him that's different, and he would have been a good (but obviously also short-sighted) pick from the EW. I mean picking the villager that is the most widely trusted/ considered reasonable/productive is great if it works but not exactly sneaky. But in this case I wouldn't be surprised... which kinda sucks for Eönwë of course if it's true - imagine being such a good good guy that you're turned evil and then lynched because you were the obvious choice because you were so good?

Which was the suspicion for Eönwë which appeared yesterDay and based on which (presumably) Lommy eventually also voted him. Then she said she didn't understand what the Nerwen-Zilcident was about:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now can someone please explain it to me too. I have read it 2 times and I still didn't see Zil saying anything weird.

She also wasn't entirely convinced by Lottie about Eönwë being shady.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That could be considered fishy, but given that he loudly advocated no lynch on Day1 it's not half as shady as you make it sound.

After this, she posted a list of people (post #236). Ok, I can quote it in full:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Innocent
Legate and Mithalwen - seem like their normal innocent selves, haven't said anything particularly eyebrow-raising.
Eomer - he rubs me the wrong way with everything he says, so it is as it should be. The way he commented on the Nerwen-Inzil spat sounded very genuine and innocent to me too.

Idk
Boro and Lottie - yesterDay was weird. I would like to wait at least one more Day and see. But Boro is certainly fishier than Lottie and seems to have a death wish, so out of the two I'd vote for him again.
Lalaith - she's hard to read.
Nogrod - aka the advocate of the dead I initially thought his tone was off but it's been getting better. I'm watching him but wouldn't like to lynch him yet.
Brinniel and Shasta and Sally - they are all under my radar atm, will need to pay more attention toMorrow.
Pervencia - where is she (again)?

Suspicious
Nerwen and Zil - I don't like the way the spat escalated, it actually made me think of those times two wolves thought it would be "logical" to suspect each other and went for it and nobody who was actually innocent thought it was logical.
Eönwë - it's maybe not the fairest or best of arguments, but he'd have been a very logical wolf convert pick. Has been markedly guarded toDay and continues to talk about the dead thread which is useful (I really appreciate someone trying to work out a system, I do!) but also conveninetly something else than finding wolves/EW, which is especially bad this late.

People she lists as "suspicious" are Nerwen and Zil because of the spat and then Eönwë. Apart from that, Boro and Lottie and Nogrod are sort of in the "watching" cathegory (like it seems she could come back to vote for some of them if it came to it). So if the reason for her elimination should be some basic fear of Lommy being on somebody's trail, it would be one of this group - except for one important detail which I will get to below.

Then, after getting an explanation what the Zilcident was about, she responded:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But, they didn't??? Unless they asked privately?? And it would be far more of a stretch to assume they did than that they didn't, if you ask me. I would have jumped to the same conclusion as Zil did. *side-eyes Nerwen (and Lottie a bit too)*

But soon afterwards, after getting responses from the people in question:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Okay okay.

Boro and Nerwen, thanks for the clarifications. I actually think Zil looks better not worse because of this. But I also think Nerwen looks a bit more innocent. It starts to look like an innocent-on-innocent spat to me. Argghh.

This basically seems to have put the matter of the Zilcident to rest for her. And that was effectively the last thing she said before voting (for Eönwë - quite obviously, after she did not have such a strong suspicion against Zil and Nerwen anymore, he would be the only left in that cathegory).

So the interesting thing is that out of the people who were in her "suspicious" cathegory, it seems like actually at the moment of her death she did not suspect two of them much anymore. That's an interesting thing to consider if the reason for her death was because the Wolves thought she was a threat to them. Because at that moment, Nerwen would (presumably) no longer be suspected by her (or at least not as much as before).

So what altogether? She certainly was not a "no-trace" kill, because she offered opinions on lots of things and people.

I don't think she said anything that would look specifically "Gifted"-ish, but then again, we are in a bit different situation than normally.

She was also widely trusted, or in any case, at least generally not suspected. She was going after quite a few people, too, or mentioned the possibility that she could come back to them. A frame-up would be also a possibility, the question is the frame-up of whom. Eönwë? Or even somebody else like Lottie? (The problem is we have the classic dichotomy of "this could be genuine, or it could be a bluff".)

EDIT: x-ed basically since my last

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Anyway, the other thing I was thinking was that the baddies might be worried by now about a Hunter being amongst us. They killed Lommy, and Lommy suspected Zil and Nerwen, also Eonwe who she voted for. Presumably, the wolves killed her without worry that a Hunter-Lommy might take one of them down. So, should we feel less worried about Eonwe and Nerwen as a result of this?

That's actually a good point. Except - and that is exactly the thing I've now been trying to wrap my head around - Lommy did not seemingly suspect Nerwen anymore at the time of her death (see above). So essentially, a Nerwen-Wolf could have also felt safe even under such circumstances. This actually makes me want to take a second look at Nerwen, since I haven't really questioned her before very much.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Basically, my guess is that we've probably got 3 wolves now, but Eonwe is not one of them, because the Lommy kill puts Eonwe firmly in the spotlight. I doubt Inzil was a wolf, but we might find that out soon.

She did (again, unless it was a double-bluff or whatnot). That is a fair point.

Originally Posted by Eomer

There are unfortunately lots of excellent wolf-candidates now. Shasta, Sally, Mith, Brinniel and Lalaith would have been my top choices on Nights 2 & 3 (let alone Night 1!). 2 wolves in that lot, put money on it!

Indeed. I think I also want to focus on the quieter players a bit more and also generally reevaluate my approach to things. Also in light of what Lalaith has just said. The next level is the fact that many people haven't even posted on Day 1 - that would also have been pretty good thing from the EW to pick one of them on the next Night, because then they would start "fresh".

EDIT: x-ed with Nog and Eönwë

[Boromir88]

I get positive vibes from Eonwe's posts, Morsul's active and willing contributions, and Brinn's one post.

I'm fully anticipating and hoping to get blocky-posts analysis from Legate.

Anyone who hasn't posted makes me wary if they remember we've started and they're stuck here with the rest of us...

I think Lottie is doing what she likes to do best...go against the grain and counter groupthink.

I never trust Eomer...it could be he looks like he cooks better than he cooks.

I feel like I'm always attacking and voting for Inzil Day 1.

[Loslote]

Randomly killing someone who will probably be an ordo just to say we did something doesn't sit well with me, but if that's what we as a group want to do, I don't have any stronger objections than that I think it will be a waste of a number. I don't think we're in too much danger of killing a Gifted, so it's certainly not the end of the world to lynch someone toDay. That being said, I have no strong feelings as to who is on the chopping block, either. I haven't found anyone to be suspicious. 2/5 of the village have yet to post, but I don't know that I feel better about lynching someone who hasn't said anything either, though.

EDIT: xed with Eonwe, Zil, and Boro

[Mithalwen]

Well, hello. I have read through and got distracted looking at old games.
Anyway all I can say so far is Loslote is pinging my radar like mad. Maybe unfair but various alarm bells triggered. Maybe a bit too aware of potential evil strategy but then querying one of the few criteria even I in my dippy perimenopausal state grasped seemed odd. Or at least the sort of thing I was righteously lynched for in the past.

And the context of that suspicion makes the suggestion of no lynch a bit convenient. Anyway hope a few more bods will surface before voting is necessary. I don't want to leave it too late my insomnia has been replaced by near narcolepsy. It is true what they say about aging. Not fun but interesting.

[Morsul the Dark]

We've got only a couple hours to deadline and a lot of folks not here. I'm worried we're they're not present because they didn't realize we had started? If anyone can reach out on social media perhaps?

I wouldn't vote anyone not here. The biggest issue of the day is to vote or not, that being said while I'm all for voting I'm not sure I can do it in good conscience with so many absent...