Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Kuruharan]

~~~~~Our Tale~~~~~

The NIGHT was quiet.

Mostly.

Except that as dawn began creeping over the horizon there was a strange buzz.

It went on and on growing louder and LOUDER and LOUDER!!!!!!

The guests huddled in their rooms, terrified.

bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZZ BANG *fizzle* POP

Absolute silence.

As the sun rose over the horizon everyone slipped out of their rooms into the canyon.

They stood staring at each other around the guillotine.

All except for one.

Blood poured out from under the door of the chamber of Morsul the Dark.

Turns out Kuru was right.

What to do now?

I think an excellent place to start is to focus on how Kuru was right.

~~~~~~

DAY Two has begun. Morsul the Dark was killed in the NIGHT.

You may all post.

Living
Nerwen
Inziladun
Loslote
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Eönwë
Nogrod
Pervinca Took
Brinniel

The Dead
Morsul the Dark

[Boromir88]

I must be cursed.

Can we get one more ++Boro for a no lynch?

EDIT: Thanks, Boro!~Lottie

Erm...you're welcome. I guess? Just so we're clear, I didn't do it for you.

[Inziladun]

Craziness. So...Morsul was the Night-kill. Conventional wolf-wisdom says he could have been seen as a Gifted, or they had no real idea and just wanted to do something to make us obsess. I don't recall anything from him that might have marked him as a target.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Just so we're clear, I didn't do it for you.

Then why?

[Mithalwen]

He was one of the most vocal and was seriously gunning for Loslote. Can't fauLt him for that. Also anti no lynch. Ditto.

Oh look, stone me (don't actually stone me! I am being rhetorical). Kuru was right. Clever Kuru.
2 am... very sleepy. Unless someone has said something a2akening while I typed this...laters

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

He was one of the most vocal and was seriously gunning for Loslote. Can't fauLt him for that. Also anti no lynch. Ditto.

Are you putting those as reasons for his being killed? Not buying it.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Are you putting those as reasons for his being killed? Not buying it.

Not really. More pointing out that he doesn't fit the profile of a typical first kill of someone who has showed up but really not participated. Morsul posted a lot and offered strong opinions so frankly it seems a bit odd and aggressive to make out he isn't worth looking at the moment the day starts dismissing his death as something for us to obsess over. His death is all we have as concrete information and we ignore it? Really...?

[Nerwen]

Okay, I intended to have this done much sooner, but things got in the way.

Morsul, His First and Last Day.

#6.(Replying to Lottie at #5.)

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Certainly a good thought process, but the other side of the coin is a no lynch vote is in itself a bandwagon to easily hide in. It discourages suspicions and allegations and other information that can be dissected Day two.

#9.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Chance of getting a baddie with no lynch 0/16

Don't get me wrong mathematically I get the logic.

Then again I'm not entirely sure I get the whole wizard deal.

#10.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

*old man voice
Back in my day we had wolves and gifted not these new fangled wizards

#14.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I've certainly never played a game with them. But time to pretend to be serious since my posts are mostly banter.

1. My last thought on lynch no lynch. If my math is correct we have a 6.25% of getting bad wizard today. If we forego lynching and lose a friend overnight that leaves 1/15. 6.66666% not going to lie seems to me we could easily have the same exact debate tomorrow which is one reason I'm not a fan of the policy.

2. The dead thread. Even if we make a few mistakes the dead thread could be a little Kharmic power to help us later on.

3. For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

4. I'm going to sleep.

#24. (Replying to Zil at #22.)

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Perhaps I wasn't clear. In a 1/1 situation in theory the dead could swing a win in either direction. I'm just wondering if a tie is still an automatic win.

#26.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

To be fair with the mechanic of wolves being created at random times by the evil wizard we have no real knowledge of how many wolves we have at any given time plus people who were once considered iron clad innocent could be evil the next day. While I understand looking for sudden changes in behavior it seems to me we'll never have a clear grasp on who the bad guys really are because we won't even know how many.

Every day will be day one with a lot of information from the previous day being suspect at best. In my opinion in this type of game no lynch for the sake of information gathering isn't the most helpful strategy. And as Boro said we're straight out of the gate saying do nothing...

#35.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Ok. So I'm voting.

Now it's time for me to say that weird thing no one likes.

I honestly think the bads have a lot more to lose than us. Not going to lie... gifteds to me, anyway, are less than helpful. You get reveals and counter reveals and a seer in a game where characters can change roles? I'm just not convinced losing them is entirely game breaking. Getting the evil wizard though destroys the baddies chances. Especially if we get lucky and get him day one.

#39.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

So... yeah I just reread the whole Wizard doohickey. I'm slightly less confused. But still think having a confirmed identity of the EW would be good. Then there are the visitors... oy I'm so confused.

But I stand by my statements.

#45.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

We've got only a couple hours to deadline and a lot of folks not here. I'm worried we're they're not present because they didn't realize we had started? If anyone can reach out on social media perhaps?

I wouldn't vote anyone not here. The biggest issue of the day is to vote or not, that being said while I'm all for voting I'm not sure I can do it in good conscience with so many absent...

#92. Votes Lottie (Boro 1, Nerwen, Lottie 1)

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

++Lottie

Right out the gate she was giving strategies for wolves and wizards. I'm also interested in her mentioning wolf and wizard not being in contact. So the wolf has to find the wizard? If that's the case another reason to go for a wolf right? Keep the wizard isolated.

Edit X'ed since Boro vote

#105. (Replying to Eonwe’s suggestions for communicating with the Dead at #98)

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

sure thing

Xed a bunch

Thoughts: He had a lot to say generally, and doesn’t seem to have been suspected by anyone– but then that last was true of many players yesterDay, to the point that I think it can be discounted as a factor.

Talked a lot about–

a. The vote-or-not question.
b. The mechanics of the Dead thread.
c. The Wizards, in particular the desirability of catching the Evil Wizard.

I’d say that c. may have been what did for him– preoccupation with a particular rôle is very often a gifted tell (from the wolfish point of view). Claimed to be confused by the rules, but that could have been seen as an “obvious” blind (to answer Legate).

The other notable thing he did was, of course, vote Lottie. Apparently he thought her a possible wolf? But that oughtn’t to have been enough in itself to get him killed, even if she is one. Was not suspicious of anyone else.

One more thing we can say now– I think– is that a wolf was definitely created Night One– according to the rules, the Evil Wizard couldn’t have started off with a solo kill. Not that there was much reason to doubt it, but every bit of information helps.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I must be cursed.

Put on a coonskin hat, take a lit sparkler in each hand, and sing this backwards while walking the shore of Lake Erie. That'll take care of it.

[Nerwen]

Okay... I will look at Morsul's posts to see if I can glean anything.

Meanwhile- Boro, what was all that about? It looks like you believed you were breaking the tie and thus nilping yourself. Is that right?

Another thing- a number of voters yesterDay (including, I admit, both people who voted me) strike me as using the existence of the Dead Thread as an excuse for not really "owning" their votes- "no, I don't really suspect this person, but who cares? Dead Thread!" And yes, I know it was Day One, when reasons for voting tend to be flimsy, but still...

[satansaloser2005]

So what I'm gathering here is that no one was lynched and we don't know why, and Morsul was killed and we don't know why. Lovely.

The night kill tells us nothing right now, I believe, which is to say that I think it was a pretty standard first kill rather than a stab at a perceived gifted, and thus I'm not interested. I'm far more keen on looking into the Day One shenanigans and how on earth that happened. I think folks could do with a rehash of their vote explanations.

Also, my prince, I demand an explanation. You can't leave me so soon!

[satansaloser2005]

Just an FYI that I am headed to bed shortly. I will attempt to check the thread prior to work and will be in and out thereafter until my evening.

Let's not have chaos again, shall we?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Morsul

I honestly think the bads have a lot more to lose than us. Not going to lie... gifteds to me, anyway, are less than helpful. You get reveals and counter reveals and a seer in a game where characters can change roles? I'm just not convinced losing them is entirely game breaking. Getting the evil wizard though destroys the baddies chances. Especially if we get lucky and get him day one.

I do agree with him to an extent on this. While Gifteds definitely have their usefulness, we don't necessarily need to rely on them to win the game. Anyway, I wonder if the baddies picked up on this quote and suspected a gifted Morsul was attempting to play down his own role. Then again, finding a gifted is such a shot in the dark so early in the game, I'm not sure that the baddies would factor giftedness at all when selecting last Night's pick.

Boro's self vote at the end of yesterDay would be an awfully big risk if he were a baddie. I'm inclined to think he was innocent when he made that vote. But then that was yesterDay. There's a very real possibility that a new wolf is among us. Which means we can't use any of the previous Day's behavior as a grounds for innocence. That's always the tricky part about these Dueling Wizard games.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Sally

So what I'm gathering here is that no one was lynched and we don't know why

No one was lynched because there was a tie.

I do agree that what went down during those last minutes deserves another look.

But for now, I will be retiring for the night too as it is late and I am tired.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Another thing- a number of voters yesterDay (including, I admit, both people who voted me) strike me as using the existence of the Dead Thread as an excuse for not really "owning" their votes- "no, I don't really suspect this person, but who cares? Dead Thread!" And yes, I know it was Day One, when reasons for voting tend to be flimsy, but still...

A vote is a vote, and 'ownership' is beyond dispute. Knowing the Dead Thread awaits is also a bit of a balm for a guilty conscience.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I must be cursed.

Okay, first thing: let's make this clear. I absolutely didn't get what was that you were doing in the last minute there, because your post sounded first like you were saying in one sentence "goodbye, I am dying" and in the next "I have always wanted to die, but I am not dying yet". So what was it? What was your vote supposed to accomplish, a tie, or a break?

Otherwise, as for Morsul's death: I think it would obviously be a helpful thing for the Wolves to try to get a Gifted like in every normal game, especially since the Good Wizard would then lose them. The question is, with all the roles being unknown and all, how much of an important thing it would be for them. (What makes this worse to analyse now is also that since we didn't get to hear what his role was, there is no way telling whether he actually was a Gifted or not.)

That said, Morsul mentioned several times that the special roles confused him. By all logic, that would be a sign pointing to him not being a Gifted, unless the baddies would interpret it as a bluff from him. That's the same like what Brinniel said about him downplaying the role of Gifteds.

I tend to agree with Mith that he was certainly not a non-participating player, question is what does it mean in practice. There are many "participating players" (although again, I think Morsul was more active than he was usually, and so maybe that was again a reason for him to stand out as a target).

Of course, "all of the above" is also a reasonable explanation. I mean the more reasons the Wolves have to kill somebody, the more likely they would be to target him, obviously.

[Lalaith]

I was using the Night break to read back over the posts of Day One and I was thinking Morsul's contributions were helpful and sensible, and thus he was probably innocent.
Perhaps the baddies thought this too - in that lots of us might decide to trust him toDay.

I'm sorry I was such a berk with my highlighting etc last Day - the deadline is so late and I get confused when I'm tired, and I'm not nearly so clever at posting stuff via my phone as some of you young folk. I must say that last minute flurry of insanity was hilarious to read when I woke up. I will almost always be in bed at actual deadline and will thus nearly always be voting early and missing the fun.

So we can assume probably two baddies yesterday and perhaps up to three baddies amongst us today?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I was using the Night break to read back over the posts of Day One and I was thinking Morsul's contributions were helpful and sensible, and thus he was probably innocent.
Perhaps the baddies thought this too - in that lots of us might decide to trust him toDay.

I'm sorry I was such a berk with my highlighting etc last Day - the deadline is so late and I get confused when I'm tired, and I'm not nearly so clever at posting stuff via my phone as some of you young folk. I must say that last minute flurry of insanity was hilarious to read when I woke up. I will almost always be in bed at actual deadline and will thus nearly always be voting early and missing the fun.

So we can assume probably two baddies yesterday and perhaps up to three baddies amongst us today?

According to my reading of the rules, yes. Unless the Evil Wizard is able to turn someone and start killing the same Night, which I suppose is possible.
EDIT:x’d with Eomer.