Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Proposed Empowerment List

ZIL = PREY
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Eönwë
Lalaith

ZIL = PREDATOR
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Mithalwen
Nerwen

NONE OF THE ABOVE
Nogrod
Pervinca Took
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin

Any objections?

Starting the day with this so I don't forget. This sounds fine.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lommy cast suspicion on Loslote very early on.

Eonwe calls Lommy out for this.

Interestingly, on Day 2, Lommy was then the first to jump onto Loslote's suggestion that Eonwe had 'changed' in Day 2 (post #221) and proceeded to cast the first vote for Eonwe.

Even on Day 1 (post #61) she brings the same thing up, making this comment for Eonwe: "if I was dead I'd empower him" The explicit nature of this comment is fascinating.

My thinking is that the second lynch seems like more of a set-up than the first.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Apologies, I meant the second night-kill, not lynch. Meaning Lommy's death sets up Eonwe.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

So the Dead will empower someone BEFORE they know what way that person is voting or if indeed that person is going to vote at all?

Before or after, I think - they simply vote at any time they want, and during the final calculation, it is all taken into account.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Proposed Empowerment List

ZIL = PREY
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Eönwë
Lalaith

ZIL = PREDATOR
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Mithalwen
Nerwen

NONE OF THE ABOVE
Nogrod
Pervinca Took
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin

Any objections?

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

At the risk of seeming a complete cow the extra bod should go in the last category if it must be Alphabetical order has clumped unreliable voters with a debutant player which the Dead may not find ideal. Sign up order would be preferable.

At the risk, I actually see what Mith means here. But maybe we should just try not to let this fall into another two-hour debate and hope the Dead would be able to pick somebody? I mean Pervinca is a new player, sure, Nog's opinion on the whole thing notwithstanding he is probably going to vote, Shasta has posted thus can be expected to vote, Sally likewise plus she needs to vote so she doesn't get modfired... I think we could leave it at that. (Also I don't want to now spend more time researching what was the signup order etc. But maybe we can use it toMorrow?)

Originally Posted by Mith

Otherwise I would agree to anything just to get a different topic of conversation. I am about ready to do a Boro. Is this a personality trait to be so obsessive or some kind of distraction technique?

It's important, but once we get this done, we can focus on the Day's content and all. It's next on my list.

EDIT: x-ed with two Eomers

[Mithalwen]

I know it is important but it is now 2/3 of the way through the day and we have not really discussed much that will affect our votes today in favour of finding something out after day's end.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Basically, my guess is that we've probably got 3 wolves now, but Eonwe is not one of them, because the Lommy kill puts Eonwe firmly in the spotlight. I doubt Inzil was a wolf, but we might find that out soon.

My top suspect for evil puppet-master is still Loslote.

There are unfortunately lots of excellent wolf-candidates now. Shasta, Sally, Mith, Brinniel and Lalaith would have been my top choices on Nights 2 & 3 (let alone Night 1!). 2 wolves in that lot, put money on it!

[Nerwen]

So I was going to do a proper analysis of Lommy, but ran out of time- toDay has been somewhat difficult for me as far as participation goes. She was rather similar to Morsul in being an active player who was not widely suspected; different in that she herself had a range of suspects, which she listed both Days.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien, Day One

Nerwen - seems like normal self
Inziladun - seems like normal self
Loslote - kinda shady but not necessarily (probably?) evil
Boromir88 - probably the most eyebrow villager so far, the overtly cheerful banter seems a bit off (I don't want to say you're not allowed to have fun but something about his behaviour seems like an act)
Shastanis Althreduin - I'll facebook message him too oops
satansaloser2005 - not here not judging
Eomer of the Rohirrim - predictably rubs me the wrong way, ignoring that
Morsul the Dark - seems innocent?
Lalaith - not here not judging
Legate of Amon Lanc - seems like normal self
Mithalwen - seems like normal self
Eönwë - if I was dead I'd empower him
Nogrod - not here not judging
Pervencia Took - not here not judging
Brinniel - seems like normal self

Voted Boro.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien, Day Two

Innocent
Legate and Mithalwen - seem like their normal innocent selves, haven't said anything particularly eyebrow-raising.
Eomer - he rubs me the wrong way with everything he says, so it is as it should be. The way he commented on the Nerwen-Inzil spat sounded very genuine and innocent to me too.

Idk
Boro and Lottie - yesterDay was weird. I would like to wait at least one more Day and see. But Boro is certainly fishier than Lottie and seems to have a death wish, so out of the two I'd vote for him again.
Lalaith - she's hard to read.
Nogrod - aka the advocate of the dead I initially thought his tone was off but it's been getting better. I'm watching him but wouldn't like to lynch him yet.
Brinniel and Shasta and Sally - they are all under my radar atm, will need to pay more attention toMorrow.
Pervencia - where is she (again)?

Suspicious
Nerwen and Zil - I don't like the way the spat escalated, it actually made me think of those times two wolves thought it would be "logical" to suspect each other and went for it and nobody who was actually innocent thought it was logical.
Eönwë - it's maybe not the fairest or best of arguments, but he'd have been a very logical wolf convert pick. Has been markedly guarded toDay and continues to talk about the dead thread which is useful (I really appreciate someone trying to work out a system, I do!) but also conveninetly something else than finding wolves/EW, which is especially bad this late.

Voted Eönwë.

[Mithalwen]

Oh come on Eomer. Since when have I been an excellent wolf choice? I have only survived once which was a fluke. Apart from being founder member with darling Anguirel of the Fenris pack, my main claim to fame was revealing out of sheer boredom.. Noone in their right mind would actually choose me.

[Lalaith]

Anyway, here are my thoughts about the wizards...as we are on Day 3 which I believe is technically the first day we could see a Weeeeeezaaaaard’s Duuuuel.

For both EW and GW, as far as I read the rules, creating roles is as good as scrying - because trying to 'turn' the other wizard will reveal them.
For the GW, Gifted are a nice bonus but not essential to winning. At the beginning of the game, the numbers are on his/her side.
However, the EW, to improve chances of victory, needs to make as many wolves as possible and keep them live if s/he can.
So not creating wolves some nights or rushing to send wolves to the Dead Thread would be rather reckless policy and I am going to assume that the EW has been creating all the wolves s/he can.
(From this, it would also follow that even if the EW discovers the GW s/he might hold fire on the duel, and would be more worried about keeping their identity hidden.)

So, at this stage, therefore, after three Nights, chances are we could have the maximum permitted pack of wolves (ie 3) in our midst - the EW would be creating or at least trying to, each night. Of course, any one of following things could mean we have fewer than 3:
* if Zil was a wolf
* if there is a Ranger and s/he protected another player from conversion
* if the EW tried to turn a gifted
* if the EW tried to turn the GW

Anyway, the other thing I was thinking was that the baddies might be worried by now about a Hunter being amongst us. They killed Lommy, and Lommy suspected Zil and Nerwen, also Eonwe who she voted for. Presumably, the wolves killed her without worry that a Hunter-Lommy might take one of them down. So, should we feel less worried about Eonwe and Nerwen as a result of this?

And finally - this is directed at my fellow innocents - if you haven't been turned yet, it might be worth wondering why. The wolves wouldn't necessarily want a new member of the pack suddenly turning their suspicions around.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Anyway, the other thing I was thinking was that the baddies might be worried by now about a Hunter being amongst us. They killed Lommy, and Lommy suspected Zil and Nerwen, also Eonwe who she voted for. Presumably, the wolves killed her without worry that a Hunter-Lommy might take one of them down. So, should we feel less worried about Eonwe and Nerwen as a result of this?

Maybe slightly, but there's still only a 1/13 chance of hitting a Hunter at this point. Is there any evidence of Lommy changing her behaviour in a way that makes her seem more huntery?

The really cynical and paranoid part of me wonders whether this could be a wolf-Lalaith (potentially a newly-wolfed Lalaith, because she didn't seem suspicious to me yesterDay) attempting to make a fellow wolf-Nerwen seem more innocent by grouping her with others. Like a strong version of the 'a wolf wouldn't pick someone who leads back to them'.

The problem in this game is that now potentially just under half of the living (6/13) have a role they didn't start off with, so I'm just seeing potential new wolves everywhere. I think I need some time to reread.