Werewolf CXIII: Death at Deadmen's Dike - GAME THREAD

[satansaloser2005]

Yeeeeeeah, I saw that coming.

Also, my apologies to Nerwen. I done goofed real hard and didn't realize the state of things when I voted.

[satansaloser2005]

Obviously, for a whole bunch of reasons, I'm almost definitely voting for Huey today, but for now, I'm probably going to bed.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Obviously, for a whole bunch of reasons, I'm almost definitely voting for Huey today, but for now, I'm probably going to bed.

I would appreciate you (or someone else) outlining what exactly those reasons are.

hS

[Huinesoron]

From what I can see, Sally and Morsul suspected me primarily because wolf-on-wolf behaviour is possible (and was used by Morsul in his first game). There was also this:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Huey - For some wacky logic that seems off

But I don't know what Sally is thinking of, specifically. My logic may be wrong at times, but I've always tried to draw the best conclusions I could given the information I had. Unlike Morsul and Sally, I had no evidence Sally was innocent until Morsul Seer-cleared her (at which point I did my best to gracefully drop the issue).

Moving on from talking about myself... Pitch makes a good point here:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You know, she needn't have died if Boro hadn't been so keen on lynching me over Lalaith.

I'd missed this in my long post, but Boro voted right at deadline in a way that wouldn't alter the outcome of the lynch. He had a choice between lynching Lalaith or Nerwen (assuming Nerwen wasn't about to make a last-second vote), and chose to disown the decision by voting for a third party.

I would really like to hear more from Boro. His active-but-weird Day One was followed by a quiet-but-reasonable Day Two. Dare we hope for active-and-reasonable toDay?

Boro, Lalaith, Pitch, Shasta - there's a wolf and a cobbler in those four. And Boro and Lalaith are the ones who seem strangest.

hS

[Lalaith]

.

You know, she needn't have died if Boro hadn't been so keen on lynching me over Lalaith

Funnily enough, I feel the same way - as an ordo I am clearly of much less use to the village than Ranger Nerwen- if she hadn´t died then we would probably still have our Seer too.
Having said that, Nerwen not voting two days in a row might have led her to die anyway?
Which leads me on to Morsul. Like I expect a few others I picked up on his Seer hints, but as this was coupled with his clear suspicion of Huey I too followed the reasoning Huey mapped out below:

But a Seer who had caught the last wolf would just straight up say 'I'm the Seer, and he's the Wolf' -

I wondered if Morsul was Moon Moon as a result, hence my comments about disquiet in posts 129 and 131. - and my suspicion, picked on by Pitch, that a wolf or cobbler was "one of the quiet ones". However I couldn´t just come out and accuse Morsul outright, in case he was the real Seer.
However, this disquiet is obviously now dispelled with the sad events of last night.

Anyway I also agree that Sally at least is clearly innocent. (reading the rules again I see that the Seer can confirm all roles so would see if she were Moon Moon)

The obvious question is - did he also dream of Huey? The answer to the question, why didn´t he say so, might be that he found it unsporting to end the game on Day 2. My other question is, given that Morsul missed the first day, did he also miss the first dream?
State of play - we are down to six, we have four innocents who wish this village well, one of whom is, I am pretty sure, a confirmed innocent. There is the wolf and Moon Moon who may or may not have worked out who his wannabe packmate is.

Lalaith - who do you actually suspect? I haven't seen very much indicating you think anyone's guilty. Who is your #1 pick for the last wolf?

Well the answer to this, dear Huey, is obviously you, given the hints left by our late lamented Seer. But see my reservations above.

Who would be my suspect number two? My voting has sucked this far, and is partly explained by trying to make up my mind in the early hours of the night, fuddled by exhaustion or champagne. I will read through this thread again (thankfully it´s not too long) to see what I come up with.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

The obvious question is - did he also dream of Huey? The answer to the question, why didn´t he say so, might be that he found it unsporting to end the game on Day 2. My other question is, given that Morsul missed the first day, did he also miss the first dream?

I think he must have. His quote on the matter:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Sally to answer your question, I didn't realize we were starting I got me days mixed up.

If he got his days mixed up, he can't have sent in a Seer request on the initial Night.

There's also the fact that he took pains to clear Sally, but didn't mention anyone else as in the clear. So either he dreamed of Rune or Zil (always possible), or me as a wolf and decided that winning is for suckers (I guess?), or... he wasn't here, as he suggested. Looks most likely to me.

hS

[Lalaith]

So I started re-reading everything but only got as far as page 2 before RL commitments took over. I´ve focused on the surviving suspects. Here´s what I´ve come up with so far.

Huey – starts off with banter with wolf-Rune and writes a poem mostly about his suspicions of Boro.
Argues with Boro about first-day productivity and then semi-agrees with Pitch that Boro might be Moon Moon. Reading back over day 1 I realise that there really was a high level of interaction between wolf-Rune and Huey.
Rune says, like Boro, that he doesn´t want to vote for Huey on the first day of the first game, and he votes for Zil instead. If the two were packmates, that would make sense, but it would also make sense if they weren´t, as wolf-Rune would on a meta level still want to be sporting.
Huey makes the first vote for wolf-Rune, which as Boro and others have pointed out, was a high-risk strategy for a wolf-Huey when only two wolves were in play. This is still a point in his favour for me, despite Seer-Morsul´s suspicions.
Boro – also starts with banter, mainly interacting with ranger Nerwen. Says he´s suspicious of too much productivity (which actually kind of makes sense) Keeps saying that he doesn´t like first day lynches (neither do I, in general, although in this game it proved unusually fruitful) But anyway, this statement could be said by either a bad or good Boro. Next day he feels he helped to expose Rune. The dubious Boro behaviour people commented on actually feels less dubious now on second reading.

Pitch – sums up everybody´s behaviour so far and thinks Boro is Moon Moon. Gets annoyed with Boro for suggesting (probably in jest) a no-lynch first day.
Says this about Rune which to me sounds like quite honest wolf-hunting,

I see what you mean about Rune, he was a bit quick to agree without a good reason. He seems to be rather skimming the thread than digging in.

Now when he votes (for Boro) he asks Nerevar to guide him. I had no idea what this means and had to google it but this Elder Scrolls character appears to be the owner of a Moon and Star ring. Is this some sort of “I am Moon Moon” hint?
The next day he is arguing that Sally could still be guilty because Rune was apparently doomed on only 2 votes. I took issue with this and still do (Sally of course now a confirmed innocent)

Ironically, two out of the three non-voters on Day one are now confirmed innocents.
And something Sally about my voting for her

Why not vote for an established candidate?

Reflecting on this comment it struck me it´s actually a good case for my innocence. This is exactly what a Lal-wolf at that stage of voting would have done when a sole packmate was at risk - gone for Zil, Boro or Nerwen. There are players who take a more high-risk approach to wolfing but I´m not one of them.

[satansaloser2005]

Uh, right, there are only two wolves, so Morsul's post about voting Huey unless the seer came forward (and saying that was unlikely) probably isn't what I thought it was. Oops?

Sigh.

Work is quite busy today, and I didn't really have time to catch up over lunch. I'll be back in roughly five hours and will be able to get more done.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Also, my apologies to Nerwen. I done goofed real hard and didn't realize the state of things when I voted.

You know, she needn't have died if Boro hadn't been so keen on lynching me over Lalaith.

Off to work now, I'll rejoin you all when night falls on the old continent.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You know, she needn't have died if Boro hadn't been so keen on lynching me over Lalaith.

Off to work now, I'll rejoin you all when night falls on the old continent.

Bit of a travesty, that lynch.

I'm almost certainly voting for Pitch again today.

[Huinesoron]

This post was written last Night, under the suspicion that Morsul would be nightkilled and confirmed as Seer.

Well... bother. That couldn't have gone much worse.

With only six people remaining, I'll start again with my impressions of everyone, but first I'll address the Oliphaunt in the room: yes, I know this looks bad for me. But a Seer who had caught the last wolf would just straight up say 'I'm the Seer, and he's the Wolf' - with eight villagers left, that's a 100% certain village win. So no, Morsul couldn't have dreamed of me.

Sally - Innocent, as confirmed by Morsul in post 91:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I'm just going on information I'm Seeing is all, and that's that I trust Sally. So I'm inclined to see where she's coming from.

I don't think there's any room for doubt on this.

Boro - weird Day One, sounded sensible early Day Two. Late posts in Day Two also sound fairly reasonable.

Question for Boro: was your Pitch vote just an attempt to prevent Nerwen being lynched, or did you suspect him? (And if so, why?)

Pitch - Looking over everything... could the painting of Boro as suspect on Day One be weaker than I thought at the time? He was certainly quick to peg him as Moon Moon, and I agree with Shasta that Boro was clearly roleplaying/being playful with this comment:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Who's to say we HAVE to lynch anyone today? Is a random vote for the goofiest one any different than a random vote for the most talkative? A random vote for the most absent? Who's to say there are even murderers? Or that the only murderer is the Blossom?

Pitch jumping on him for that was a bit much. And then... let's see. He initially says we should ignore Boro as a possible cobbler, then in post 44 simultaneously casts suspicion on me and dismisses the argument against RuneWolf. That post also drops the first suggestion that BoroMoon could be BoroWolf, which was presumably the justification for his Boro vote Day One. Could this have been an effort to save Rune by offering an alternate candidate who'd also been suspicious all day? Zil hadn't yet made the second Rune vote, and in fact there were five people yet to vote.

Day Two... he backs off a bit on Boro, but still keeps discussing him for most of the day. He shifts to suspecting Lalaith (eventually) on... fairly solid grounds (see below). And that's the thing. Yes, it's possible to construe Pitch's behaviour as wolfish, but it just feels too organic and natural for that. The (joking?) initial Moon Moon accusation against Boro was reinforced by Boro's behaviour, and it all follows from there.

Shasta - Other than a post-vote post (123), spends most of the day either professing my innocence (which is nice, but kind of suspect given that most other people found me suspicious) or suspecting Pitch. That final post tags four of the other seven villagers as probable innocents, Boro as a possible Moon Moon, Pitch as the wolf (hence the vote), and Lalaith as an 'outside shot' wolf candidate. If we have wolf!Shasta, this would be setup for (if Pitch was lynched) shifting to attacking Lalaith today.

But... I don't think it's likely. I think the Pitch reading is a valid interpretation, and with comments on 3/7 (4 if you include Lalaith from the late post) villagers, Shasta hasn't really been tunnelling on one person like it seems at first.

Lalaith - Cast the second vote for Nerwen, lynching her. Also cast that suspicious vote for Sally on Day One, taking us up to 5/10 on the block - and Sally is confirmed innocent, if that matters here.

The Nerwen vote could have been a shot at a Gifted (I didn't see any hints, but I could've missed them), or a neat way to implicate me - 'voted innocent + dead Seer suspected him' is a good combo. And why did she say she voted Nerwen? Nerwen herself highlighted it:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

This looks like a possible attempt by Lalaith at avoiding "ownership" of her future vote. Note that this way she doesn't have to make a case against, or even express actual suspicion of whoever she ends up voting.

Both our Seer-confirmed innocent (Sally) and someone I can't see as suspicious (Pitch) voted for Lalaith. Argh, I wish I'd been able to stay later! Reading something like this:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Lal made several posts but was almost Ms Agreeable in terms of voicing no suspicion.

Could have backed up my own suspicions:

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Lalaith voted yesterDay to put half the village on the block, claiming just not to have noticed. Her first post toDay included a big paragraph about cobblers, who aren't actually our priority target. She's also spent a fair amount of time clearing people - me, Sally, Pitch - based on yesterday's events, which could be suspect, but feels more like genuine thoughts.

(Emphasis added)

... and maybe led me to vote for her instead of Nerwen.

Lalaith - who do you actually suspect? I haven't seen very much indicating you think anyone's guilty. Who is your #1 pick for the last wolf?

hS