Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Huinesoron]

Five minutes between a webex and actual productive work, so since Lommy replied I thought I'd return the favour

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Of course the early banter should not be completely ignored, I was merely saying that it's not a particularly novel and genius idea to look at more than that before voting. But anyway I maintain that later Day1 posts are on average more important than the first ones which are mainly banter.

I can see the argument here, but I'm also mindful of the fact that G55's original raising of no-vote Day 1 comes over as exactly the same kind of banter as 'that's just what a wolf would say!' or 'sounds cobblerish!' in opening posts. Yet it still wound up dominating the first half of the Day, and set up a lot of links (positive and negative) between the people discussing it. That could indicate a wolf taking the 'banter' and using it to cast suspicion, or using it to derail half the Day into non-wolf-hunting; it could also indicate G55 was a wolf sowing seeds to achieve the same end (which would tie in to my PitchWolf/GaladriWolf hypothesis*).

*I'm a scientist; I can't bring myself to say 'theory' on so little data.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I gotta applaud Legate for getting the discussion rolling by taking G55's fake lynch idea seriously and running with it; however I'm very confused why he'd do this (ordo trying to be helpful? wolf trying to look helpful? cobbler trying to distract people?). I mean he seems to later come to the conclusion that it is perhaps too complicated a scheme to realistically execute which is exactly why I thought it was an insane idea from the beginning. Also, as Boro points out, the game is so last-minute oriented that this scheme would not even help us very much.

Hah, I didn't read your post well enough before starting to reply... this is kind of half what I'm trying to say, but also half suspicious, because I feel like there's a lot of people who managed to 'contribute' by just talking about no-votes.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ah, have you not heard of my trademark fliflopping? Seriously though, I don't consider myself flipfloppy, my brain just works on an endless "one hand, on the other hand" loop, which is both useful and frustrating to me myself. So if I'm gonna articulate my whole thought process (like I often do, because ehhh who would think through a post before writing it? not me ) it is gonna sound wishywashy. But that being said, I absolutely don't think it's impossible to find a wolf on Day1, or that it isn't worth trying. That's why I ended my paragraph there by saying that I'm still staunchly in the camp "Day1 matters".

I totally understand that kind of thought process (I tend towards parenthetical irrelevancies myself), but I'm also wondering whether, for what is after all a 'first game back' for most of you, there's an element of playing into your** own legend: deliberately heightening your 'trademarks' to cover up for any suspicious behaviour.

**'Your' here indicates a general thought, not specifically about Thinlomien; I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and certainly not well enough to know who's acting 'as expected'.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Yes, concentrating our efforts on finding the cobbler is unhelpful and it would be a potentially beneficial path for the wolves to try to keep the discussion in that. However, I don't think anyone concentrated on the cobbler too much so far. People can and should point out when someone looks like the cobbler, even if they aren't our primary target (identifying them is still helpful, especially later in the game. After all, if the lynch shapes up to be a toss between an innocent and the cobbler, the choice is clear, and also having an idea whom not to trust in the late game voting is pretty useful).

[...]

As for "how would one spot the cobbler" - well, that's a question. Traditionally people assume the cobbler would mess around and distract the village and draw the attention and suspicion to themselves so that the wolves can slip unnoticed meanwhile, but that is certainly not the only way to play the role. The cobbler could just as well play cautiously, try to identify the wolves, and align their votes with theirs. Or something else completely. So that's certainly one more reason not to start concentrating on the cobbler instead of the wolves.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm supposed to be working atm so I'll be back with more substance later, but just a quick note on cobbler-spotting: yes, a village that focused extensively on speculating about the cobbler would probably be a happy place for a wolf. That said, I do think it's useful to keep the cobbler in mind - that is, to remember that there is one person around whose aim is to distract us from hunting our actual wolves. So discussing potential cobbler suspicions doesn't necessarily ring alarm bells for me, but I'd be wary of anyone mainly concerned with chasing cobblers (never seen that though) or voting for a suspected cobbler instead of a suspected wolf.

Thank you both. I'll keep this in mind (though I may reconsider if either of you turn out to be wolves! )

hS

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Most people have posted, I made a list of those who stood out to me in one way or another. It is not complete - meaning, it doesn't have everyone. Generally because they posted little or I don't get any strong vibes either way. This is for the time being, because I don't know how much I am going to be able to post in the following several hours (may be a lot, may be not at all), so better to post now what I have.

Pitch - I originally thought he could be a Cobbler, simply based on his first few posts. The kind of "stir the pot" stuff.

Lommy - nearly ditto. There was some talking in circles from her though, which is normal, and she is maybe a tad more careful than I would normally expect.

Brinniel - I have seen her (and played with her) a couple of times as a Wolf, and her initial posts make red lights flash. Of course, it's Day 1, half the people say noncommital things, yada yada. But in her case, there already were some topics to discuss, and it sounded like she was intentionally picking to comment more on noncommital things. Both her first posts have the same structure: one part - remark on hygienic procedures that is not related to the game, second part - something related to the game but of all topics discussed at the moment, not necessarily the most burning ones. (Now these were notes from some twelve hours ago, her later posts made me think slightly better of her, but... still. I know she's the kind of player who, when she's a Wolf, can stay out of spotlight by doing the right maneuvers, and her behaviour seemed to me like just that.)

Kitanna posted very little to the point of making me wonder whether it was deliberate staying out of discussion while maintaining presence.

(People like Lhuna have also posted zero content and admitted it, but that's a different type of behaviour - I hope to see more from her and similar others still later, of course.)

Lottie has raised some eyebrows, but it seems to me like she acts the way innocent Lottie would.

G55's posting feels horribly aggressive, as in, questioning people on absolutely random points (such as Boro's absolutely random remark), but on second thought, she's doing it consistently and I kind of seem to recall it may be her playing style in general.

Macalaure's first post was fishy as Angband (erm... in the future maybe), meaning, subtly pointing fingers while not accusing straightforwardly. Mesa not like this at all.

Rikae is being rather provocative in the curt yet to-the-point-statements, but that is very typical behaviour. So far I am actually thinking that may be rather a sign of innocence.

Kath's one post was very helpfully structured - okay, actually let me digress here and say that I really like that way of posting, the sort of "evolutionary" approach, so please keep doing that, I'm only happy to read it, because it offers an insight into your thought process (and if you are not innocent, then fabricated one, which would also be very useful) -
---but anyway, obviously, this does not indicate her innocence or guilt in any way, but so far leaning innocent-ish. She would, however, easily post the same thing even as a Wolf (for instance, either as an innocent, she's genuinely spotting the real course of events, while as a Wolf, she may have decided to single out that particular issue and then subtly point fingers at the "misinterpreters" like Pitch, Mac, then also G55 etc. It'd be actually a very convenient arrangement, but, I may also be happy that Kath is posting such detailed things so relatively early for once, so I am reserving imagining the worst-case scenarios here.)

Eönwë seemed okay (but waiting for more content there). So does Huinesoron thus far.

Hi, Rune. Hope to see more from you. Same goes for Sally, Urwen... and whomever else I missed now.

Ok, I'll post this, see whom I crossposted with, then see how much post-able I am in the near future... But this is the state of my thought process at the moment.

Edit: x-ed with Kitanna, Zil, and HS.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm here and will be reading. I'll do most of my posting from the work computer, so toDay might be a bit quieter for me since I'm unexpectedly busy with projects.

Also, stop with this fake vote nonsense before it makes me properly suspect people. It doesn't make any sense.

And, because I promised: Links links links.

[Rikae]

Quick post while working:

I still find G55 worrying, but I seem to recall her being one of those "always suspcious" players in the past, plus the way certain others ... Kath and Brinn ... went after her looks a little opportunistic.
Not enough to make me suspect them yet, but I am making a mental note.

Pitch's interactions with G55 could be a wolf protecting an innocent who is under suspicion so as to rack up some "brownie points" later on, or also a wolf protecting a wolf. His very first banter post seemed nervous to me, and subsequent posts seem calculated.

Why is Mac looking suspicious to me? It's mainly the way he goes after Legate initially. Yes, Legate was the one to push the "fake vote" idea forward seriously, but that felt very innocent to me. He stuck his neck out, provoked conversation, thought aloud, and generally behaved like himself. I would expect Mac to recognize the same thing, and instead he seems to ... take the bait? Nothing else, really, except the gleeful feel in his posts, but that could just be the joy of playing again after such a long time. I don't know. He does love playing as a wolf, but I think he also enjoys looking sinister as an innocent.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Speaking of overcomplicating things, where did this whole idea of waiting for guidance from the QT come from? And why would we 'always have to second-guess' the QT vote,
as G55 said in #56? Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven
by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.

Answer: I think Legate first brought it up, as an explanation for why fake votes would make sense, and I agreed. It was a worry I had since I saw the mechanic in the discussion thread. Yes, it's just one vote, but it will be a vote from a group of people whose roles are known, and therefore, it *will* be a source of valuable information (downplaying that is rather suspicious in itself). My fear is that players will hold back, wait for that information, and then cram the whole day into the last 2 hours. How exactly that would play out depends on the specifics, but in general I think anything that dampens conversation is detrimental to the village (not to mention probably annoying to people for whom the deadline is late).

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Legate

Seriously!!! That's about the most unhelpful thing ever!!! I mean, I understand you are substituting Nilp, but I'm with Kant on this one. You shouldn't make the example of doing something that might corrupt others to do the same!

I am assuming here that you mean Kath not Kant - but I'm still gonna take it and bask in the glory of being referred to as an eminent philosopher.

Originally Posted by G55

As in keeping the person you suspect as a cobbler alive on purpose? Certainly, if there is a person you suspect to be a wolf, because the cobbler doesn't count as a baddie in the tally. But surely, in terms of voting outcomes, a dead cobbler is better than a living cobbler when it comes to votes? After all, the QT just votes once collectively, which means the cobbler may or may not affect the choice of recipient. But a living cobbler always gets a vote. And gets to say a lot of things that mess with the village's head besides.

I think my train of thought was following the previous one about baddie numbers overwhelming goodie numbers in the QT if they ended up there early on. So say a wolf is lynched Day 1 and an innocent killed Night 2, the QT has even baddies and goodies - the baddies control the vote. The cobbler is lynched Day 2 and an innocent killed Night 3. The QT still has even baddies and goodies and all the Cobbler has to do is vote with the now known wolf for again the baddies to control the vote. But all of that only mattered in the case of a wolf ending up in the QT early on, which was the original thought I'd started at. Also, the villagers would know the roles of those in the QT, and so could be rightfully suspicious of any vote coming from the QT anyway. So I'm afraid it was all rather a thinking out loud exercise. In terms of voting outcomes, as you say, a dead Cobbler is better.

Originally Posted by G55

Yes, that's what I'm getting at. The QT vote can't be treated as a "known dead innocent" (possibly misguided, but still innocent). Because if it's the dead wolves dominating the vote, they know who to vote for. Which actually gives us more information than if the QT is innocently dominated. However, who knows what sort of chaos would be going on in the QT discussions.

Yeah, I think this sums up the ramble above.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Incidentally, the "fake votes" from yesterDay faded absolutely into obscurity. True, less than half of the people participated in them. But still. Wondering if anything can be gleaned from them? For now, listing them for referrence, as every bit of knowledge helps, right:

FAKE VOTES

Shasta: Lommy (according to Boro's classification - Shasta said it very early in the Day, and it went ("I *were* to vote right now, it would be for Lommy " So not sure how seriously should we "count" it.)
Boro: Legate
(both rather early in the Day)
G55: Rikae (at the heat of the debate)
Rikae: Brinniel (later real vote too)
Lommy: Boro (later voted G55)
Legate: Kitanna (my prime suspect at the time)
Loslote: G55 (followed real vote later)
Mac: Mac ("Fake votes, eh? Chew on that! ")
Huinesoron: Lommy (she was his top suspect until he had to pick among the bandwagons)

I may have missed something (some are marked ++, some are marked +-. I think in the future, IF we do this, we could do the "+-", which would make it easier).

In case we wanted to do this also in the future, I think we could set a DL for it earlier. I am not sure if it's helpful, but it may, after all, be a bit more helpful the further we go.

Except I don't know if we want to do this toDay of all Days when the CobblerThread can act based on that.

Continuing to read...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Rikae does love traps. Rikae was pretty clear yesterday in that they did intentionally set a trap and suspected Brinn fell into it. Turns out Rikae had no special knowledge, but trying to put myself back into Day 1, the wolves wouldn't have known Rikae was an ordo. Brinnwolf fell into Rikae's trap and overall with Rikae's posting yesterday felt Rikae was a gifted, or in the least Rikae was going to be an assumed innocent.

What makes you think it was "clear" that Rikae "set a trap"? Feel like I am missing something that you (and Mac??) consider obvious.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

On Rikae's death...

Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.

Well of all people, I can imagine you doing it exactly with this sort of double-trick idea.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Scenario 3. Rikae looked more innocent after the exchange with G55, so they were an easy kill.

My personal belief is 3. But even if it was not that, it likely was a part of the reasoning.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

My first thought on looking at the way the lynching went - we can assume that G55-cobbler did not think Brinn was a wolf or she wouldn't have tried to save herself?

G55 didn't know anything, so I think she'd just take the risk. It wasn't like there was much she could do. And in the case if Brinn turned out to be innocent, then self-voting would be stupid in retrospect.

[Thinlómien]

I agree the list "Pitchwife, G55, Macalaure" was a bait, but I don't recall much coming out of it. Furthermore, I can't see it looking as a seer dream by itself as they couldn't have had three dreams by this point and there's nothing to differentiate between the trio.

First "substantial" post #121: voices not particularly convinced suspicion of Gal, Pitch and Mac. Again, no seer vibes.

Vaguely defends Legate. I can kinda see the grounds for Mac's paranoia based on #128 because Rikae seems to be operating with rather "how do I prove my suspicion of Mac is correct?" rather than "is my suspicion of Mac correct?" But it's still pretty far-fetched.

#138 laconically puts Brinn in the spotlight (for saying "I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap.") which... sounds like an innocent catching a suspicious whiff they later fixated on, but it could of course have been interpreted as a seer finally finding a legit reason for voicing suspicion for their wolfy dream.

#148 it continues:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Anyway, right now my fake vote would go to:

++Brinniel

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.

Mac is sort of out of Rikae's main suspects by now. He was really like a side note on Rikae's suspicions. So why is he so fixated on that?

Rikae's real suspicions seemed to be divided between Gal and Brinn. And I don't think the Brinn suspicion looks very seerish; on the contrary, it builds up based on the events on the game thread.

Thoughts?

Based on this, I'd say Mac looks much worse than Brinn. If Brinn is a wolf, I very much doubt Rikae looked the most seerish of all the villagers (remember there are four more wolves who could have had seerish accusations against them).

If Brinn is innocent, then I think Boro might look more innocent too (for his weird presumption that she's guilty, would a wolf think that way?) and Lottie looks worse (as has been pointed out, she sounded like she knew Brinn was innocent).

While Mac's conviction of it looking like Rikae-seer dreamt of him looks very paranoid wolfy. I'm unwilling to go very meta on this, but it all makes even more sense to me with Rikae/Mac being a RL couple and with them having been unhappy being on different sides in ww before. It's not a reason enough alone to incriminate Mac, but I think wolf!Mac would like to kill innocent!Rikae early on even if they didn't look particularly gifted. Of course, there would probably have to be other reasons for picking Rikae to convince his packmates it's the best choice.

Also? I think Rikae's death makes Legate look a little more innocent. He was the only one they consistently talked of as an innocent (including mild defense of him) and that alone might have been enough to ping the wolves' seer radar if neither Brinn nor Mac is a wolf.

I still would kinda like to lynch Brinn because her role would shed light on others' but I'm leaning towards lynching Mac as the best option toDay.


edit: xed with Legate and Hui and no time to read or reply right now

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I still would kinda like to lynch Brinn because her role would shed light on others' but I'm leaning towards lynching Mac as the best option toDay.

I would concur that Mac has been the most obviously suspicious toDay, but I also remember I thought he seemed innocent yesterDay. Will have to check why that was.

Okay, looks like I said it in #93, that the suspicion of him seemed unsupported. But... that suspicion mostly came from Rikae (innocent) and Legate (I lean innocent). So I'm going to try and put that aside.

In which case, his taking my "I still think he looks innocent, why are you saying otherwise?" in #115 and trying to turn it into an implication that I thought he was guilty is looking at least slightly suspect. I can see the shape of his argument - but like his "the wolves thought G55 thought Rikae thought" thing, it's got a spirally feeling to it that could be a wolf just stringing things together to make something stick.

hS

[Lalaith]

If a wolf was defending themselves, they’d of made a script or perhaps several to accommodate for this. You could ask a wolf trying to hide to explain themselves and you’ll get a lot of words, very direct, but not entirely what you asked. Another is the ‘duping delight’ of WW, usually the confident little glimmer in responses ‘you can ask/vote however you want’ or ‘it’s whatever you make of it’, which puts the blame of ‘mean interrogator’ on who’s pressing for an explanation.

This was The Ka..
I don't agree. A wolf does this, a wolf does that...as all of us who have done this before will know, a wolf can do all kinds of things and there are lots of different wolf styles.

YesterDay I said I thought wolves might pick fights with each other. I also think that with five wolves they could afford to throw one of their number under a bus if the mood took them. I've seen them do that, too.
One thing all wolves do have in common however is superior knowledge. A wolf knows enough to be able to judge their voting well, look good and not draw attention to themselves, particularly in the day 1 voting when no-one else knows anything much. And they will also be able to subsequently pick on hapless ordos for 'odd' voting, bandwaggoning etc.
I speak from bitter experience here btw, in the last WW I played, I was stitched up like a kipper by the wolves who framed me for some apparently suspicious Day 1 voting.
From all of this I am less inclined to suspect Eonwe, incidently.

[Lalaith]

Lalaith - no vote

Lal, in the interests of the fact that the Day could have ended really differently, who would you have voted for there? I know it's with hindsight, but would still be interesting!

This from Kath.
Good - and fair - question! It would have depended on the time I arrived. If I had arrived just before deadline, as opposed to just after , I would have done exactly what Sally did, panicked and tried to save "the Ranger".
An earlier, more measured vote? - As previously stated, Legate and Boro were the ones worrying/scaring me yesterDay so probably one of them. Whereupon I would probably have been accused of spreading the vote in a suspicious way

Generally I am better at spotting innocents than wolves so votes are always a trial to me!

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If you're gonna stick with that, then you're wasting your Day. I see a lot of theories from you on who is suspicious based on the assumption that I'm wolf, but I am not aware of the reason why you suspect I am one in the first place.

My reasons were stated:

I should have started the day with this, but just to put it out here now, My predominant suspicion coming into the day is Brinn's a wolf. If the DL was NOW, I'd vote Brinn. Based on the voting yesterday and Rikae's death.

After you had acquired 2 votes (Rikae and Pitch) there was a spring of a handful of people saying they didn't want a bandwagon lynch of you.
Rikae Post 245

So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

Now, I found Pitch suspicious from the beginning, although just for vibes really, and Brinn could have started looking like a convenient vote. On the other hand, three people pushing back on a wagon for coming out of nowhere after two reasoned votes (by day 1 standards) is odd, too, especially if Brinn turns out wolfish or the trolley is redirected toward an innocent. Lottie's and Inzil's positions in the anti-Brinnwagon-wagon are, that is - Huey's is pretty bold.

And as far as Rikae's death, I meant the clear trap. To kill 2 wolves with 1 arrow...is that right? Wait, 2 birds with 1 stone...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

What makes you think it was "clear" that Rikae "set a trap"? Feel like I am missing something that you (and Mac??) consider obvious.

Rikae #148.

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

Onto some matters today. Brinn my suspicions today really aren't based on anything you said or did yesterday. Your vote is "neutral" in it can't determine wolf or not. In the light of yesterday's posts, your Day 1 attitude of "not being bothered by random Day 1 suspicion" felt innocent. That was yesterday. It's a new day and with more information on the 2 deaths, people start looking different, you being one of them.

Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.~Brinn

That looks suspicious. I rarely get a good feeling about "do you really think I'd be that dumb as a wolf." There's a variety of different styles and strategies that work. If Rikae was the seer, it wouldn't have been dumb at all for wolf-you to kill them. That fact that Rikae did not turn out to be the seer, doesn't mean you were dumb for targeting them, just means you were unsuccessful in finding the real seer.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Indeed. Can you explain that, Boro?

Yeah, I'm afraid I can't beyond having an intense headache that I left yesterday with and still have right now.

It's generally accepted I was weird as hell yesterday. Primarily because I do enjoy Day 1 discussion. I hate the voting, but I enjoy the banter and activity. You might say I like to "survey the landscape," do more observing of what people are saying/doing, but letting people do it and sort of watching how they play out. There was LGP fake voting, few folks talking about the QT, Mac getting buttered up. People think it's non-committal wolvery ok, but instead of immediately jumping on and drawing attention to every plot I see. I give it time to play out until solid evidence comes in.

What do I know now, that I didn't know then, in all the discussion yesterday.

G55. Cobbler. The fake voting stuff at the start looks like complete cobbler distraction. The 2 others heavily involved in that discussion (Legate and Pitch) I don't see a reason to suspect wolvery of on the basis of the fake-voting conversation.

My point on Rikae:

Rikae - a wild card. I have trouble pinpointing/figuring out whether what she's trying to accomplish is good or evil. But regardless of role, strives to accomplish something.

I know they will always be trying something, but I see little benefit in pointing out what someone's attempting until knowing more. What do I know now...Rikae's innocent. Night killed. Set an intentional trap. Maybe it caught an innocent, ok possible. But there's no reason to think Rikae had malicious intent. And there's no reason to believe Rikae was lying about it.

It would be foolish to just let that disappear/forget about.

But perhaps Boro or Mac has been reading them more carefully overNight. ~Lommy

That's plain evil looking. Of course I read people's post overnight. How else is anyone able to keep track of hundreds of posts while the day is ongoing and more posts being added to it? I have to read a lot of it in the night phase. Maybe I've underestimated your cunning ability to argue with yourself and look innocent. That's a bad comment.

I'm going to be gone quite a while, will make it back around 3 hours before dl.

Edit: crossed posts and forgot to attribute my last quote to Lommy. Corrected

[Kitanna]

Mac
Post #52: Jumps almost immediately into the fake vote debate. He takes it to mean no real votes, believing the wolves can throw votes wherever with no real consequence. He also brings up the tighter schedule for a lot of people in having two DLs. Casts suspicion on Legate naming him cobblerish. Doesn't think a wolf would stick their head out that far.
Post#97: He got a lot of mentions after his original post. Including some "fishy" feelings from Legate and Rikae misquoted him as suggesting Legate was infected, when he had said cobblerish. Agrees with Huin that Pitch was pinning no vote/fake vote on Legate. Notes Legate started going after those who cast suspicion on him. After this second post Lhuna called him scary and Mac was talked about quite frequently.
Post#111: Sees where Pitch is coming from in regards to a post where Pitch pings him. Subtly accuses me of wolfy behavior for saying in LGP there's probably a wolf, but then goes on to say he's also guilty of contributing. As were others who engaged in that conversation. I think he noted me because I said I suspected a wolf outright whereas most everyone else was saying "it's odd, it's fishy, etc."
Post#132: Makes a case for why a bold wolf might stick their neck out based on a comment from Boro

Originally Posted by Mac

I highly doubt the pack would come out in force and steer the wheel only to keep one packmember from fenrisizing themselves. Chances are that one of them will bite the dust at some point, and then people will look at their old posts. Such Day1 behavior can sink the wolfship on a later day.

Then says this

This is what I mean. I can feel a race between Pitch, G55, and Legate coming up, while the wolves are snickering in the background.
I'm not even saying that there isn't a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.

I don't think the distancing of himself from the whole thing. He was amongst those casting doubts in the direction of LGP and yet, despite his own involvement, finds me wolfy for it. Then continues to bring it up, but pulls a Han Solo "I have a bad feeling about this." I saw a few posts when skimming Day 1 about him being scary, I didn't get it at the time, but I do now.
Post#166: Comments on Rikae/G55 Questions G55 on why she thinks Rikae sidestepped questions. Fake votes self.
Post#196:

Legate seems fairly fine, actually. Pitch still seems tense to me, but that alone is not enough. The way Gala went all out after Rikae makes me think she's innocent. Rikae's response doesn't point in either direction, so I don't have anything there either. Inzil is suspiciously unsuspicious (for his standards). Huin seems reasonable. Boro plays with the pressure-less cheer of an ordo. I feel fairly good about Greenie and THE Ka. Many people are quiet. I don't have any opinion on a whole bunch yet.

Casts some light suspicions on Brinn but it's in a very non-commital "well innocents do this too" kind of way. But does quote her later calling her words very wolfy.
Post#218: Comments on some susicpion throw his way from Greenie over his aforementioned Brinn comments.
Post#259: Votes Brinn
toDay-
Post#303: Believes G55 believed Rikae to be innocent, believing maybe the former believed the latter was gifted.

Now Rikae is dead. Did the wolves follow Gala’s judgement and thought them gifted? I don't see it, unless maaybe if Brinn is indeed a wolf and the way Rikae suspected her set them off. Not gonna put too many eggs into that basket, though.

Why Rikae then, just because after yesterDay they'd look the most innocent of all toDay and thus least likely to be lynched? Possibly, but if so, our wolf pack is boring.

Unless... I'm being framed. By the exact thinking above, a mewolf would have reason to think Rikae really is the seer. If the wolves are preparing my head for the chopping block, I have to raise my eyebrow at those who suddenly suspected me near the deadline, since this would very much play into their hands/paws. *coughgreeniecough*

*raises on eyebrow* I don't love how he continually brings up himself as mewolf and crafts a conspiracy theory around wolves setting him up.

This would look perfect if Kitanna and Legate are wolves together. She’s suspicious of him and defending him at the same time. It’s easy to say that there’s a wolf in that group if you know that there is. Note how in conclusion, she finds Gala and Pitch more suspicious than Legate. Can't suspect a fellow wolf too much.

Except when I suspected Legate more later on. One could make the same argument for Mac. He jumped in on LGP throwing suspicion on the G&P, same as me.
Also says Legate did the same by suspecting me and backing away. I truly believe Legate would have voted for me if he didn't see it as a throwaway and could convince a few more people to hop on the wagon. Mac's comments actually make me think better of Legate. Mac is working hard to throw us together, while completely downplaying his own involvement in the Day 1 debate over LGP.
Post#305:

=Mac]

Except wolves know all day that they have to make up the reasoning for a vote for an innocent and can plan for it accordingly.

This whole debate gives me a headache. I'm not even sure what to say.
Post#331: Breaks down the fake/no votes. Says G55 sided with him, though in reading the quoted texts, I'm not sure sided is the right word, at least not siding with Mac. It seemed more like G55 was trying to get more people on her side about Rikae and since Mac was the only one catching what she was throwing. I'd say it was more G55 tried to convince others Mac sided with her and not the other way around.
Again brings up maybe G55 thought Rikae was gifted. Circles back to "maybe seer-Rikae" dreamt me"

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

All of this was already on my mind during the Night and now Rikae is dead. Obviously, it’s a bit of a stretch for me to assume the wolves saw everything the same way. But here’s the thing - I got some fire late yesterDay from Greenie and a few. With a bit of a push, that case could gain momentum and get me lynched toDay - and an innocent lynched is a wolf not lynched.

Tinfoil hats only, please.

Mac seems to be working overtime to get the "they thought Rikae was the seer and wanted to frame me" off the ground. I do not like it. It's possible to say the wolves looked for someone to frame up and that's why Rikae was chosen, but I think the more likely explanation is they thought in light of G55 dying a cobbler, Rikae would potentially be assumed innocent. A lot of people were leaning that way by end of Day. Mac's continued assertion it was a frame up makes me uneasy, but I find his behavior Day 1 more suspicious. Mac brought up LGP multiple times, casting suspicions to GP and finding Legate more innocent. But then backs off sharply to accuse me of the same behavior. Then votes Brinn because he didn't like the traction LGP was getting. It wasn't that the vote for Brinn didn't come with a decent argument, it was it looked so obviously like he didn't want to tangle himself in an LGP bandwagon. Looking at the voting table, when he voted G55 was ahead and his vote tied Brinn though it wouldn't have mattered since first vote of a tie dies. I'm not sure how cross-posted his vote was though. He may not have known that his would tie up votes.

I feel like I'm never going to catch up and analyzing everyone is not possible, though I had hoped it would be. Looking at those I have read through, I'd say Eonwe and Mac are the most suspicious to me right now.
Eonwe: His vote was really what gets me. It just looked like a classic vote to keep his hands clean. I want to keep a close eye on him for it.
Mac: His tinfoil hatting and backing so sharply from LGP worries me.