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#1 |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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That was some Day 1!
I'm glad now that we weren't able to swing the vote, but I do think it's worth looking at those late votes. I know Shasta guessed that G55 was a cobbler, and Infectors might've guessed too, but they didn't know either, and I'm sure they wouldn't have rushed to save someone who claimed to be the Ranger if they had any plausible deniability...
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
Last edited by Loslote; 05-06-2020 at 03:04 PM. Reason: xed with Sally |
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#2 |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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As a quick reference...
Lhuna -> Lhuna Rikae -> Brinniel G55 -> Rikae Boro -> Pitchwife Urwen -> G55 Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2) Kath -> G55 (2) Shasta -> Pitchwife (2) Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3) Inzil -> G55 (3) Lottie -> G55 (4) Greenie -> Macalaure THE Ka -> Brinniel (3) Eönwë -> Urwen Rune -> Brinniel (4) Lommy -> G55 (5) Huines -> G55 (6) Legate -> Brinn (5) Macalaure -> Brinn (6) Brinniel -> G55 (7) Sally -> Brinn (7) (after "ranger reveal")
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#3 | |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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So Lalaith was the only person who didn't vote, and she only posted twice, the last one about six hours before deadline. We can probably assume she wasn't around at the deadline. Sally was the only person around at the deadline, and she did vote to save the "Ranger", which doesn't prove her innocence - a Sallywolf might have simply thought she had no choice but to vote in that situation - but I would say doesn't look especially suspicious. So it looks like that line of questioning might not be the most fruitful.
I am a little bit side-eyeing the late (but before the "reveal") Brinn voters. If you were a wolf, you'd probably rather keep the loud, distracting player who is haring after someone not in your pack than keep the quieter player who isn't going to help you hide as much. Specifically, Mac, Legate, and Rune. Greenie mentioned yesterDay that Mac's analysis post of Brinn reads like someone talking themselves into suspecting someone else, which most often happens when a wolf is looking for a reason to suspect an innocent. So I definitely don't trust him at this point. I think it's very interesting that Legate really didn't seem interested at all in the G55-Pitch options at the deadline yesterDay. In his last post before voting, he throws out Brinn, Kit, and Greenie as options, and then votes the only viable candidate there, but doesn't really talk about the other choices at all. It's not a huge thing, but it does kind of ping my radar as something a wolf might do if he wants to steer the vote a little bit, but doesn't want to look suspicious and isn't as invested as he would be if a wolf were actually in danger. Finally, Rune's vote post: Quote:
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
Last edited by Loslote; 05-06-2020 at 03:26 PM. Reason: xed with Huin, Zil, Brinn, Zil again, and Boro |
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#4 |
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Odinic Wanderer
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I imagine we will spend this day 2 scrutinising voting patterns, at least I see little in G55 behavior to warrant significant analysis. Besides the big bust up with Rikae, she seems to have mainly thrown a few non-committal comments about.
She turned on Legate when he picked up on her idea, had a little banter with Lommy about day 1 tactics, discussed the merits of cobbler hunting with Kath and challenged Brinniel for suspecting her. Wasn't that about it? Rikae seems like an obvious choice, having been in a public spat with a traitor and under all circumstances a capacity they would not want around, so we seem to have unadventurous and downright boring wolves. I didn't look to closely on Rikae's post yesterday, but they seem to warrant a bit closer scrutiny. |
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#5 | |
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Quote:
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#6 |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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After Rikae? My guess is, the wolves thought Rikae looked so innocent after the G55 fight - it's doubtful the cobbler went full tilt after someone they thought could be a wolf - that she wouldn't provide much cover for them. Semi-known innocents can be really powerful, after all.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#7 | |
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Quote:
x/d with Huey
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#8 | |
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Laconic Loreman
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A lot to unpack, but that could have gone much worse than how it turned out. First thought is it must be a cruel wolf pack to put G55 and Rikae together in the QT after their arguments yesterday.
2nd thought is there wasn't a whole lot of talk about how the QT voting will turn out. With the cobbler being there and holding the tiebreaker, we can't trust the QT vote at all today. It's going to be another nerve-wracking DL. Getting something to eat, will return with a look at the Brinn votes yesterday, and Rikae's last post warning about a possible "anti-Brinn wagon" Rikae Post 245 Quote:
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Fenris Penguin
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#9 |
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Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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YesterDay was certainly interesting. G55 didn't stay alive long, but she certainly helped cause some chaos. And now Rikae is stuck with her!
![]() Just a thought about the QT vote - there are now two players in that thread and one is a cobbler. It's highly unlikely G55 will cooperate with Rikae and I believe if I'm right, in the case of a tie, G55 swings the vote. So while she may not know who the wolves are, we will all have to take that vote with a grain of salt. I will need to review the voting from yesterDay. Some of that last minute bandwaggoning was highly suspicious - especially knowing that G55 and me are not wolves. With five of them, I am certain there are at least a couple hiding in those bandwagons, though I also don't think all of them were involved. I will actually have some decent amount of time later this evening to actually go through posts and analyze things. As I mentioned before, due to my work schedule, my participation at the later half of the Day is limited to short posts, so I will try to make the most of the time I have tonight. X-ed posted since #286
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#10 | ||
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Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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Oh I'd so love to be a fly on the wall of the QT now.
Quote:
![]() Rikae was thought innocent by most of the people who talked about them (except for Andrógiel55), which may be why they were killed. Also this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious? If Brinn is a wolf, I could see at least some of her packmates turning to G55 as a convenient lightning rod (which is one of the purposes of a cobbler IMO). Quote:
(x-ed since 288)
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#11 |
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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On another note, Steve's vote was odd, to say the least. It's natural to have been frustrated by Urwen's lack of reasoning (I was), but there was no chance she would be lynched.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#12 |
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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asdfghjklölkjhgfghjkllkjhgfghjk
^my summary of yesterDay But hey, quite a nice result after all! When I first saw Gal's reveal I was like "I can't deal with this right now", then I thought "but I gotta, and I gotta give her the benefit of doubt", then I fervently wished there would be enough votes to lynch Brinn instead but turns out it was okay this way. And in hindsight, it makes sense. But I already see people talking as if the bandwagon against Brinn is a sign of her innocence? No??? If the wolves were trying to orchestrate an innocent lynch yesterDay, it could have just as well been Gal, who they also knew wasn't one of them. As for Rikae - I guess she just seemed overall defensive and her touchy reactions to being accused by Gal could have been interpreted as signs iof giftednes? But it'd be worth it to look at her posts to look at "seer dreams" the wolves may have caught on. Ok, that was first thoughts. Now I will actually read what you guys have said so far toDay and comment on that...
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#13 | |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Quote:
Didn't vote yesterDay: Lal. I wonder if she knows the game has started. ![]() Weird votes yesterDay (Gal notwithstanding): Steve. What the frell? Also Green, which was another throwaway and strikes me as odd.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#14 | ||
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Quote:
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x/d with all since #301
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#15 |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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I don't think Brinn's innocence is proven by any means, but I do think that the vote patterns look (to me at least) very much like wolves choosing between two "innocents". I also think that the wolves would probably have rather lynched Brinn over G55, assuming neither was a packmate. I don't think they were trying to "orchestrate an innocent lynch" - I think, based on the overall tone of the late voters, that it came down to two options, neither of whom was a wolf. No one felt like a wolf nervously trying to avoid lynching a packmate without overtly defending them, or anything like that.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
Last edited by Loslote; 05-06-2020 at 03:53 PM. Reason: xed with Sally |
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#16 | |||||||
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Re: Hui's summary of G55 - when you put it all together it's pretty obvious how much distraction and havoc she caused, and how fun it must have been for her. (Gotta be a little envious; cobbler is maybe my fave role...) Well played *waves to the qt thread* but I'm glad we got you out of the way this early.
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But given that this follows with Quote:
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oops I did that yesterDay but not toDay, I'm so sorry Rikae!Quote:
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
Last edited by Thinlómien; 05-06-2020 at 04:20 PM. Reason: typos (my keyboard seems to be swallowing the letters "a") |
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#17 |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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It was a very safe move, that kept his hands very clean - but also, really didn't seem motivated by wolf hunting. If Urwen was a baby wolf, I might expect that she would've tried harder to be involved. I definitely understand his point of view - this game means a lot to a lot of us, and I understand the temptation to lynch someone to whom it doesn't mean as much. But in terms of wolf hunting, it wasn't really a strong argument.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#18 | |
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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You might expect an Urwolf to have gotten some pointers from her mates.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#19 | ||
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Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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Also, Zil has just made me raise a big eyebrow in his general direction. *ping* (No, Mac, I'm not going to stop it!)
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI Last edited by Pitchwife; 05-06-2020 at 03:55 PM. Reason: EDIT: x-ed since Lommy |
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#20 |
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Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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Service announcement unrelated to anything else in the game
Folks, can we please refer to Rikae as they/them/their? Thank you.
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#21 |
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Sure of that? I thought those lynched carried seniority over Night-kills.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#22 | |||
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Since I just saw this, I'll post this immediately before my long, actual post is complete:
Quote:
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Which would basically mean that yes, we will have a Cobbler vote from the QT toDay. And if we get a Wolf toDay, it won't get any better (but it will still be the best we can do). In that sense, lynching Cobbler on Day 1 was a really unfortunate thing, but on the other hand, it would have probably come up some Day anyway - and in that sense, it's better if it happened early rather than later when her decisive vote could be more harmful. (She can still team up with WWs, but that's a different issue and depends wholly on the specific circumstances in those future moments.) The worse part is that it makes any close voting toDay a bit more of a mess, but at least we will know who QT voted for two hours before. So they can't mess up the final voting. Imagine if they had the vote revealed only afterwards, as was once suggested! Ok, but now back to my... erm, longer (?) post. Will post shortly. EDIT: x-ed since the post I'm quoting. In the name of all how much are people posting?!?!?!
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#23 |
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Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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Meh, I got that wrong then.
I need to go to bed now, having a vet appointment in the morning. See yous.
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#24 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Rule clarification
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Those "random exceptions" would be situations where none of the "voted to be quarantined" are part of a tie-vote in the QT. In that case the tie-breaker naturally needs to be one Night-Infected (and then similarly, the newest one to join the QT). I have tried to use different terms of these different QT-dwellers, aka. "quarantined" for those voted out ("lynched") and "infected" for those ending there because of the Nightly activity of the Infectors ("Night Kills"). Obviously, I haven't been clear enough. PS. We can't count on getting someone to re-vote just before DL in case of a tie, so it has to be a vote already cast that makes the difference. There are only two people in the QT right now, but in a couple of Days it will be different. So the need for this kind of arrangement should become clearer soon.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#25 | ||||||
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Okay, first - there already so many posts toDay, and some struck me immediately, so...
Huinesoron's first post makes me wonder, because on the one hand, the way he's describing his Nightly activity as scribbling this post - which he clearly did - makes it more likely to be an innocent's endeavour; but on the other hand, I am just returning to my misgivings yesterDay and wondering whether he's exactly not being "helpful" here (perhaps WW with enought time on his hands, can imagine) plus subtly steering the discussion back to the "threesome" - and perhaps to Pitch, his yesterDay's suspect. If Pitch was innocent, it would be a safe way for a Wolf to keep on track with consistent suspicion onto a Day that starts the same way as the previous one: with the Village having nearly zero info. My problem with yesterDay's voting is that half the village (this size) voted for G55 or Brinn, so that says very little. At least, until we know who Brinn is. *glances ominously in her direction* - But black humour aside, that is a fact, and that was the first thing I thought of the moment G55 was lynched and revealed to be a Cobbler. Whatever Brinn is, G55 just bought the WWs an extra Day during which we know nothing. Quote:
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I have been thinking what kind of person, even if they are a Wolf, could be so cruel to send Rikae there with G55. Now I have one suspect. Quote:
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I am absolutely confused by Mac's tinfoilhatting post at the moment, so maybe I'll leave it for the morning when I can process it with fresh braaaains. EDIT: x-ed basically since my last. But ok, going to sleep on it for now.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories Last edited by Legate of Amon Lanc; 05-06-2020 at 04:57 PM. |
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#26 |
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Spirit of Nen Lalaith
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Meneltarma
Posts: 5,408
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I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.
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Tuor: Yeah, it was me who broke [Morleg's] arm. With a wrench. Specifically, this wrench. I am suffering from Maeglinomaniacal Maeglinophilia. |
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#27 | |||
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Hauntress of the Havens
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
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Off to work, will be back with what's left of my brains later toDay. And apologies for the lack of name bolding. I don't know how anyone manages to make proper Downs posts on mobile! Edit: crossposted with Urwen. Coming from someone who has committed game suicide more than once in the past, the sooner the better for the village. One less person to worry about. Last edited by Lhunardawen; 05-06-2020 at 05:12 PM. |
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#28 |
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Laconic Loreman
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Rikae -> Brinniel
Urwen -> G55 Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2) ---30 min mark---- Kath -> G55 (2) Inzil -> G55 (3) Lottie -> G55 (4) THE Ka -> Brinniel (3) ----15 min mark---- Rune -> Brinniel (4) Lommy -> G55 (5) Huines -> G55 (6) Legate -> Brinn (5) Macalaure -> Brinn (6) Brinniel -> G55 (7) Sally -> Brinn (7) (after "ranger reveal") Ok, so I took out those who didn't vote for either G55/Brinn. 2 wagons that big had to have wolf involvement. As noted already today, Steve's and Greenie's throw away votes came within the 30 minute mark. Looks of "not wanting to get their hands dirty." At the same time, can't tell if they're too suspicious without knowing Brinn's role. Excluding Rikae's vote, Pitch's vote for Brinn, looks the most innocent to me. It came before the really either "wagon" developed. Then came 3 straight votes for G55 (Kath, Inzil, Lottie). If Brinn's a wolf, this would be a prime spot to try to save a Brinnwolf. Kath's vote looks less suspicious as a "save Brinnwolf" vote, because she had early established suspicion of G55. Also, Inzil, and Lottie had made their votes for G55 after already knowing Kath's vote. If Brinn's a wolf that mates were trying to save. Inzil andLottie's votes are the worst. (Rikae also in their final post to us pointed out the growing "let's not start a wagon against Brinn sentiments - pointing to Huey, Inzil and Lottie). If Brinn's innocent, Inzil and Lottie's vote still look suspicious, because by pushing forward G55, with under 30 minutes to go it kind of boxed us into 2 choices. My head is going to hurt trying to unpack all those 15 minutes and under votes. Could be a wolf in there, but it's hard to tell with people voting and cross-voting. I'd have to look closer at their established reasons. Rune asked someone why they were suspicious of Brinn at some point prior to his vote and he seemed to accept it. Doesn't look suspicious. Brinn's vote is neutral. Self-preservation can't determine suspicion either way. sally's vote strikes me as a little suspect. In the spur of the moment with such little time, I think everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim. But if Brinn's not a wolf, sally's vote is the most suspicious. If Brinn's a wolf. The most suspicious voters: Inzil Lottie If Brinn's not a wolf, I still find Inzil and Lottie's votes suspect, because that essentially made the lynch between G55/Brinn Edit: cross posted since back somewhere on Page 8. Phew
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Fenris Penguin
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#29 |
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Elaborate, by all means.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#30 |
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Well, sure. But in this case I think there were better options.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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