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#1 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Now, to business:
One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:
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Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place
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#2 |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Boro: Early on he's a bit of an oddball, but that doesn't point either way. Spends plenty of time posting about player style. In post #113, he fake-votes Legate for picking up on the fake-vote idea from G55. Does anyone see irony in that? He ends up actually voting Pitchwife for flip-flopping between G55 and Legate. ToDay he announces me as his primary suspect in post #332 without stating why, then states he's going to focus on possible suspects based on my guilt.
Impression: I actually find his vote reasoning for Pitch rather flimsy. Yes, Pitch was a little indecisive, but I don't think enough to merit a vote. And then there's toDay. I just don't understand the sense in looking at other players with the presumption of another unknown player's guilt without considering alternatives. --- Legate: Picks up on G55's fake vote idea which gathers plenty of attention. He begins to suspect Kit for her comments on Lhuna, then builds on suspicion when she switches her suspicion to him in post #88. He's unsure about me, but votes me over Kit because she's not in the running and my death could be revealing. Impression: His early comments of the Day could be a bold wolf, but I'm more inclined to think not. I don't like his vote, but it is not necessarily suspicious since he didn't want to spread out the vote and seemed least certain about me among those in the running. --- Lommy: In post #144, she suggests G55 could be the cobbler. She finds Pitch grasping at straws, Hui suspicious for his suspicion of her (that it seems fabricated), and Boro is acting odd. At post #150, her fake vote goes to Boro for shying away from confrontation and not giving normal vibes. In post #203, she thinks G55 looks bad in her confrontation with Rikae and later votes her. ToDay, she further explained her vote, stating she preferred lynching G55 over me. Impression: My opinion of Lommy hasn't changed either. She still appears genuine to me. Her suspicion of Boro was consistent and in my opinion, not too much out there. She didn't vote him, but clearly that was due to not wanting to spread the votes. --- Hui: Starts to suspect Lommy based on her comments about Day 1, stating that it gave "finding a wolf toDay is impossible, so why bother trying" vibes. There's some further exchanges that continue that suspicion. In post #93, he's wary of Mac suspicions, and backs off Lommy slightly. By post #183 Lommy is back on the suspect list. He points out the suspicion against me has come out of nowhere and then votes G55 to avoid me getting lynched (thanks) and thinks a wolf is behind the bandwagon. Impression: I don't agree with his Lommy suspicions, but I do like his concern about the bandwagon against me - however, that does not spell innocence. I could see a wolf trying to support an innocent to gain her trust. Hui does a lot of summaries of previous posts which appears helpful, but could also be a facade should he be a wolf. --- Mac: In post #111, he thinks there's too much focus on LGP and the Day could end up a race between them. He started to pick up on my comments and suspect them, which is why he votes me. ToDay he's been talking about theories of Rikae as the Night kill and thinks it could be way to frame him. Impressions: I was agreeing with his posts, right up until he started suspecting me. As for those suspicions, I'm not sure what to think - could be genuine or he could be helping to set me up. His theory toDay is a stretch - I just don't find it likely that the wolves would kill Rikae for that reason. --- Rune: In post #117, he's most worried about G55 for her fake vote idea then turning it back on Legate. For post #134, he says he's likely to vote Eonwe for being non-committal or Kit for her reaction to Lhuna. #221, he acknowledges there's a building case against me and then agrees with it. He states he'd prefer to vote Eonwe, but votes for me because I'm the better lynch option over G55. Impression: I don't really agree with his reasons for suspecting Eonwe and Kit - they seem weak. As for his suspicion of me, there's nothing unusual in itself about Rune suspecting me...he always does. But the way he piggybacks on the case against me is suspicious. Plus, what happened to his concerns about G55? They seem to have disappeared unless I'm missing something. More to come. P.S. I'm just posting right now and haven't had time to read anything new since #339. And I probably won't read anything til morning.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#3 |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Greenie: In post #135, she has concerns about the Hui/Lommy exchange. Her summary post is a bit non-committal, but I guess not too unusual at this stage. Post #178, she is wishy-washy about G55 in the Rikae exchange. In #206, she voices concerns about Mac's post on me feeling that his thought process is wolfy. She ends up voting him for this reason.
Impression: I'm not sure about Greenie. Yes, the timing of her vote made it a throwaway, but I don't know that this alone makes her suspicious. Greenie does tend to be someone who flies under my radar. --- Kit: Post #85 was her jump on Lhuna. In #95, she thinks a Pitchwolf could pick Legate as an easy target and later states that she think there is a wolf among LGP. She dedicates post #220 to looking at my post - she doesn't like what she sees, but lays off. After reviewing G55, she votes Pitch. Impression: Unlike others, I don't find her comments of Lhuna suspicious, just a bit aggressive. It is interesting that she spent a bunch of time concerned about my posts, then went along with Pitchwife. I was suspicious of her yesterDay because of her push for Pitch, which could be wolfy behavior should he be innocent. I am still wary of her. --- Sally: Not much content to go off from yesterDay. The reason behind her vote was obvious. Impression: Too little information to have an impression. Hopefully we'll hear more toDay. --- Kath: Post #81 she provides a summary list that's a bit inconclusive. She votes G55 because she doesn't like how she slides the fake vote idea to Legate. Impression: I noticed a lot of her posts talk about the players without providing actual opinions of them. I couldn't find where she suspected G55 earlier. She remains a mystery to me right now. --- Ka: In post #194, she plays into Pitch's idea that a wolf could be among Rikae, Kit, Lottie, and me. She finds me playing it safe and then votes me. Impression: I found her looking innocent early yesterDay, but less so now. Her reasoning for voting me is valid, but her timing is more suspicious. --- Eonwe: Posts a non-committal summary in #153. In his vote post, he throws out several names of possible suspects but is unwilling to commit and votes Urwen instead. Impression: Some pointed out that summary post and I agree it's wishy-washy, but not necessarily suspicious for Day 1. I don't like his vote, but again it's not necessarily suspicious. --- Lhuna: She mentioned she hates Day 1 and then voted for herself. Impression: Still too little to go on. Her self-vote doesn't point to anything. --- Lalaith: Not much participation yesterDay, apparently due to time constraints. Hopefully we'll hear more today. Impression: Not enough to have one. Though I will respond on her recent post disagreeing with my Night kill post - I see her point on Scenario 1, however I don't think a wolf would automatically suspect seer just because they are on a list. I could see the wolves suspecting a seer Rikae maybe if they thought they dreamt of G55 (considering they put her on the suspect list and their later exchange). --- Urwen: Votes G55 out of spite then threatens to disappear toDay. Impression: Don't like the vote, but I'm more inclined to think she's a confused ordo. If she does disappear, I'd rather not waste anymore time analyzing her behavior since she'd get modfired anyway. --- I think that was everyone.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#4 | |||||||||
Leaf-clad Lady
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Okay, Rikae then. Several theories on why they were picked.
Lottie seems to think the wolves took Rikae out because they were a powerful semi-assumed innocent after their fight with G55. Boro and Inzil seem to think the wolves can’t afford to pick someone just to frame an innocent, so there must have been another reason. Brinn seems to think Rikae was picked to frame her, and Mac seems to think Rikae was picked to frame him. More specifically: Quote:
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Then there’s Brinn’s scenarios on why Rikae was killed: Quote:
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And lastly, Brinn addresses this herself: Quote:
Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent. But I also have a hard time seeing them as fellow wolves. EDIT: x-ed with Legate
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#5 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Quote:
![]() ![]() ![]() This makes me hope he is indeed a wolf so we get to call him that.
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#6 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Quote:
As for Legate returning to the fake votes, I want to scream NOT AGAIN, but then again, perhaps something interesting can be gleaned from them, if one has the stomach...
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#7 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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After repeated experience of writing a post, fifty new posts coming while I write, then ending up with an endless scroll, I'm going to post one whole thought now and continue with more afterwards.
Quote:
It is *theoretically* possible that the Wolves are Lhuna, Boro, Shasta, Kitanna, Greenie and/or Eönwë (and/or Lalaith). And so in fact, there is rather a big chance that there is a Wolf among those, and to be honest, I am actually more convinced that there is at least one - or likely more than one. Since I'm at it, I could just as well look at them. Lhuna's self-vote would be a perfect cover. Perfect in the sense that she would do it regardless, so it has no objective impact as evidence. But if she was a Wolf, it'd be ideal way to keep her hands clean (no pun intended). More interesting are those who came later. All of those came after the 30 min mark and came sort of in response to the appearing bandwagons. The beginning came from the discussion "G55 or Pitch" and actually several people leaned both ways and didn't want Brinniel. Some of those who originally took part in the debate (Hui, Lottie) later voted G55 over Pitchwife, already at the point when it was very late and it came to the race between the two. Both Shasta and Kitanna voiced fairly reasonably backed suspicions based on the "Pitchwife goes on offense-defense" argument related to the whole trialogue. Greenie's vote for Mac is the "safest" in the sense that it comes up with a new bandwagon when there are others already going. I actually still don't like it because I think it easily could be faked. But I would need more data to form a broader picture. Eönwë is right in the same category with his single vote for Urwen. On second look, I have to backtrack on what I said in my previous post and say that it really looks throwaway, however, at the same time, I still think it looks rather like an innocent throwaway. Less than 15 minutes before end, a throwaway vote is a suspicious move, and not sure if an Eönwölf would do it. That's some musing on those. Lalaith I see has appeared since. I hope we are going to have more input from her, including a vote; same goes for Lhuna. Back to reading...
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#8 | |
Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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Quote:
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#9 | |||
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Commenting as I read...
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Note: I am able to pop in throughout the day, but I am multi-tasking between work.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#10 | |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Quote:
Combined with timing, I thought hiding behind Kit for your reason to vote him could possibly be wolf-on-wolf. I think Eonwe's vote could be more likely wolf-on-wolf - he put the nail in the coffin, but if he had voted Mac instead, his vote would look very suspicious indeed should Mac be innocent and Hui later revealed as a wolf.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#11 | |||||||||||
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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A look at Lhuna:
On Day 1, she self-votes which doesn't point innocence or guilt. Either way, I'm not a fan of it because it avoids tracing. This is where she also points out Hui's slip, in which I'd like to echo Lommy and Greenie's comments from toDay: Quote:
In the same post she writes: Quote:
Day 2: She replies to Inzil's comment on Kit with Quote:
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In post #394, she decides to focus on analyzing the G55 voters since it was still technically a vote for an innocent. In summary: Kath: Finds her vote fishy since she didn't say much about G55 until the last couple posts. Inzil: Calls his vote suspiciously bandwagonny. Lottie: Leaning innocent for sincerity. Lommy: Says of her: Quote:
Hui: Says Quote:
Brinn: Finds my vote reasonable being self-preservation, but my behavior suspicious. In post #425, she again questions my Day1 behavior and finds Eonwe somewhat suspicious for his Day 1 vote and current posting. Says she might vote Brinn, Lommy, or to a lesser extent, Mac (for his strange behavior, but she's not convinced it's wolfish). She ends up voting Lommy and adds this comment: Quote:
Okay, I had some concerns about Lhuna's posts from yesterDay, and after really reviewing them, I do find her suspicious. For her involvement in the ranger discussion, the way she encouraged suspicion against me in a subtle way, her vote yesterDay, and her bringing up Hui's slip. -- Okay, I was considering looking at Kath toDay, but I'm running short on time for another long analysis. And I'm actually feeling okay about her for now because I agree with several of her points in post #685.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#12 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Off to run some errands, but I wanted to drop in to say I am here and mostly awake.
Also, lynching me would either be a bad idea or a Very Bad Idea, depending on how my suspicions play out. Either way, you're not lynching a wolf, so maybe look elsewhere? Just saying. Back in a bit, hopefully with more to say!
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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