Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Looking back on the last few minutes to see where my head's at gives me a pool of Lommy, Brinn, and Pitch. Based on prior QTs, it's entirely possible I'll wake up, see how everything has gone, and be shruggy about any wagon that isn't one of those three.

It feels like Zil is a bit of a meme at this point. Like, he hasn't really been on my radar, I recall agreeing with a couple of things he had to say, but I feel like literally everyone else suspects him (I recall seeing several versions of "And Zil, he's just been suspicious all game, I don't need to go into detail here") which is how I kinda feel the Huin and Lhuna QTs went, to a certain extent, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him be QT'd and a wolf, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

I feel a bit at odds with the entire village in terms of who I suspect, to be quite frank. But I got G55 and Rikae correct, so I'm taking this game as a personal win regardless.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hm, I lied. I'd be decidely un-shruggy about a Greenie or Lottie wagon. Don't let me wake up to that.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Hey, I called out G55 and Rikae correctly D1! And there was only one Cobbler to find!

I also called Gal cobblerish and thought Rikae looked innocentish and I think so did several others(?), so, it's not enough to ping my psychic radar

Originally Posted by Inzil

Who there could "have information we don't" besides the wolves?

Everybody. They have Huinewolf to observe. Of course, we have no idea what he's doing there, I mean the extremes are posting nonsense all Day and Night (in which case the innocents there do not know much) and him having actually spilled the names of his packmates there either as a newbieish mistake or as the ultimate trolling move. The likely scenario, form what I've seen from Huine before he was lynched, is something in between. Also it's worth bearing in mind that the qt is full of innocents who are freer to think outside the box than living innocents because 1) their time/energy is not swallowed up by having to defend themselves from accusations and 2) they can't fall into the trap of kneejerk suspicion against people who suspect them unlike we do (nor can they conversely discard their valid suspicions just because they might be kneejerk). Of course, they might also be paying less attention to the game than us living ones because understandably they have less to do. But still. I do think they have certain advantages in wolf spotting if they're willing to use them.

I find it interesting that first Pitch says there's a Greenie-Eönwë-Shasta connection, then I agree about Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta but not Shasta-Eönwë, then Shasta himself chimes in and says him-Greenie maybe but not him-Eönwë, and lo what happens? Ka posts a long analysis heavily pointing at Shasta-Eönwë, which Shasta quickly retailiates to by suspecting Ka-Eönwë. Something is very furry in here...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

They have Huinewolf to observe. Of course, we have no idea what he's doing there, I mean the extremes are posting nonsense all Day and Night (in which case the innocents there do not know much) and him having actually spilled the names of his packmates there either as a newbieish mistake or as the ultimate trolling move. The likely scenario, form what I've seen from Huine before he was lynched, is something in between. Also it's worth bearing in mind that the qt is full of innocents who are freer to think outside the box than living innocents because 1) their time/energy is not swallowed up by having to defend themselves from accusations and 2) they can't fall into the trap of kneejerk suspicion against people who suspect them unlike we do (nor can they conversely discard their valid suspicions just because they might be kneejerk). Of course, they might also be paying less attention to the game than us living ones because understandably they have less to do. But still. I do think they have certain advantages in wolf spotting if they're willing to use them.

YesterDay's result indicates they aren't just "posting nonsense" (at least not the innocents). I seriously doubt though that anything Huey, or now Lhuna, say can be taken at face value. The good side there is certainly very solid.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I find it interesting that first Pitch says there's a Greenie-Eönwë-Shasta connection, then I agree about Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta but not Shasta-Eönwë, then Shasta himself chimes in and says him-Greenie maybe but not him-Eönwë, and lo what happens? Ka posts a long analysis heavily pointing at Shasta-Eönwë, which Shasta quickly retailiates to by suspecting Ka-Eönwë. Something is very furry in here...

Does that put Steve as the lynchpin?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I find it interesting that first Pitch says there's a Greenie-Eönwë-Shasta connection, then I agree about Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta but not Shasta-Eönwë, then Shasta himself chimes in and says him-Greenie maybe but not him-Eönwë, and lo what happens? Ka posts a long analysis heavily pointing at Shasta-Eönwë, which Shasta quickly retailiates to by suspecting Ka-Eönwë. Something is very furry in here...

Yeah, I'm home now and can elaborate. Gimme a sec.

[Brinniel]

Again, my time is limited, but I've been reading posts in between my normal workday.

For what it's worth, if I were to vote now, I would vote +-Inzil. And to a lesser extent +-The Ka.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Zil

YesterDay's result indicates they aren't just "posting nonsense" (at least not the innocents). I seriously doubt though that anything Huey, or now Lhuna, say can be taken at face value. The good side there is certainly very solid.

I'll be very disappointed if the innocents there are just posting nonsense.

But Huine's position there is really interesting! Would he say basically anything, knowing everybody knows he's a wolf and it could be used against his pack? Would he bluff? Double bluff? How did he and Galadriel arrive to the conclusion of voting Brinn on Day3? Since they had to discuss openly on the thread, is it possible Huine let slip something that the innocents that joined the QT later can use (or have already used by voting Lhuna)? Is it possible the QT didn't just get lucky in their guess about Lhuna but they actually knew she was a wolf?

I would really REALLY like to know what's going on in the QT. But I should probably be careful what I wish for...

And by the way, I still maintain that them dropping off the Brinn vote as soon as the innocent majority took over is a point in Brinn's favour. The innocents in the qt thread have read what lead to Huine and Gal picking Brinn for the second Day in a row, and they're in a much better position to judge Brinn's connection to Huine than we are.


edit: xed with #1114 and onwards

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And by the way, I still maintain that them dropping off the Brinn vote as soon as the innocent majority took over is a point in Brinn's favour. The innocents in the qt thread have read what lead to Huine and Gal picking Brinn for the second Day in a row, and they're in a much better position to judge Brinn's connection to Huine than we are.

I have to say that's a good point, at least the first part. The ones who came after the QT Brinn vote still don't know, though, the true intention behind it.

x/d with Steve

[THE Ka]

(Back, sorry, trying to plan and coordinate with family stuff.)

Originally Posted by Pitch

I get where the suspicion of Ka comes from, but I wouldn't want to vote her after she just defended me against Shasta, because it would feel mean.

That's thoughtful, but if I look suspicious and you have evidence to identify so, then go for it. I'm not holding it against anyone for going ahead and playing the game.

Honestly, part of me is really still curious about the QT (as much as some of you wish I'd stop talking about mechanics... Sorry!), so if I end up there so be it.

Originally Posted by Shasta

but I also kinda want to hold my vote until the end on general principle.

Gotta keep the tradition alive friend.

Originally Posted by Boro88

I don't feel like I'm walking into a trap with her questions. So yeah, not sure, but feel good.

... Hmmm.


As for the QT vote... not expecting that and I don't really see why Rune.

Originally Posted by Zil

I can't see them splitting their votes. Surely there was a bloc against the evil contingent.

I'd certainly hope so, the innocent should hold majority and be suspicious of anything the other three say. To be zany, considering the two wolves can PM each other, they could have decided to push some other choice than Rune knowing the rest besides G55 would do the complete opposite, but that's a reach. I'd hope the majority would have considered that factor, because three shouldn't be able to overthrow that much of a majority.

I'd also assume that if anything, the innocents are going to trust any past insights their two gifteds could have, which might mean either Kit and Sally voted elsewhere, or at least one of them suspects Rune. Neither of them is the Seer, so at the end of it, whatever information they have isn't sure proof on roles. It would be down to the feeling of trust that innocents are going to want to back their gifteds.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I'd certainly hope so, the innocent should hold majority and be suspicious of anything the other three say. To be zany, considering the two wolves can PM each other, they could have decided to push some other choice than Rune knowing the rest besides G55 would do the complete opposite, but that's a reach. I'd hope the majority would have considered that factor, because three shouldn't be able to overthrow that much of a majority.

I'd also assume that if anything, the innocents are going to trust any past insights their two gifteds could have, which might mean either Kit and Sally voted elsewhere, or at least one of them suspects Rune. Neither of them is the Seer, so at the end of it, whatever information they have isn't sure proof on roles. It would be down to the feeling of trust that innocents are going to want to back their gifteds.

This makes very little sense to me. How do you determine which players are "opposite" choices in a way that you can manipulate with? And why would any ordo trust a known hunter/ranger's word any more than a known fellow ordo's?

[Thinlómien]

I quickly read all Rune's posts (sorry, no summary, I didn't think I'd have time for that), and he really doesn't strike me as very suspicious. His tone is pretty genuine, and I like his no-nonsense attitude, but I have a bit of a vibe that he's watching the situation from the sidelines with popcorn, which would fit a wolf largely slipping under the village's radar.

The only thing that really stands out is possibly trying to save Lhuna yesterDay, but he's been very consistent about suspecting Eönwë and never suspected Lhuna much so the choice is perhaps understandable. Apart from Eönwë, he consistently suspects Zil.

But re: Eönwë and Lhuna, I find it rather interesting that on Day1 he said:

Just so you know I am biased (or blind) in some ways. I naturally suspect Loslote and Eonwe, I believe it has always been thus. I always want to believe the best of Lhuna, I know it has always been thus.

Is he really a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was this him laying grounds for trusting fellow!Lhuna and going for innocent!Eönwë (and possibly innocent!Lottie) later in the game?

Gonna xpost with everyone since my last.

[Inziladun]

What the heck. At least I'm pretty certain the QT isn't trying to lead me astray. He's also voted me at least once.

++Rune

[Thinlómien]

QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3

I would still prefer one of Zil/Ka/Eönwë over Rune, but I'm not sure which. I still find Zil the most suspicious of them, but this whole debacle toDay makes me sorta more eager to prod in the Ka/Eönwë direction.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I quickly read all Rune's posts (sorry, no summary, I didn't think I'd have time for that), and he really doesn't strike me as very suspicious. His tone is pretty genuine, and I like his no-nonsense attitude, but I have a bit of a vibe that he's watching the situation from the sidelines with popcorn, which would fit a wolf largely slipping under the village's radar.

I just did the same, and can't find any fault with your description here.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But re: Eönwë and Lhuna, I find it rather interesting that on Day1 he said:

Is he really a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was this him laying grounds for trusting fellow!Lhuna and going for innocent!Eönwë (and possibly innocent!Lottie) later in the game?

Interesting. From my experience being packmates with Rune last game, I remember him not being too confident in his lupine capacity, so this could actually make sense.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

... Hmmm.

That's my best attempt of quote imbedded in quotes...hopefully it looks ok.

Anyway. Yes?

An innocent can set a trap for a wolf as easily as a wolf can set a trap for an innocent.

When answering Kath's questions, I just don't feel any veiled attempt to cast suspicion or make it a "gotcha" question. Makes her probing for information look innocent.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I find it interesting that first Pitch says there's a Greenie-Eönwë-Shasta connection, then I agree about Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta but not Shasta-Eönwë, then Shasta himself chimes in and says him-Greenie maybe but not him-Eönwë, and lo what happens? Ka posts a long analysis heavily pointing at Shasta-Eönwë, which Shasta quickly retailiates to by suspecting Ka-Eönwë. Something is very furry in here...

I'm coming around to the idea of suspecting Eonwe, though I would still rather quarantine Ka. I could easily see Ka's latest post as an attempt to tie an innocent Shasta to her packmate Eonwe. I don't have a good sense for where Greenie fits in here. I am more inclined to trust her and Shasta at this point in time.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm coming around to the idea of suspecting Eonwe, though I would still rather quarantine Ka. I could easily see Ka's latest post as an attempt to tie an innocent Shasta to her packmate Eonwe. I don't have a good sense for where Greenie fits in here. I am more inclined to trust her and Shasta at this point in time.

Holy crap this x10000. Gooooo Lottie!

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Okay, hot take - Ka is evil. Potentially with Eonwe, based on her last stuff.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I find it interesting that first Pitch says there's a Greenie-Eönwë-Shasta connection, then I agree about Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta but not Shasta-Eönwë, then Shasta himself chimes in and says him-Greenie maybe but not him-Eönwë, and lo what happens? Ka posts a long analysis heavily pointing at Shasta-Eönwë, which Shasta quickly retailiates to by suspecting Ka-Eönwë. Something is very furry in here...

I'm obviously not going to contradict Ka's reading of me, and I've been thinking along similar lines, but this (I mean Ka's post) would also make sense from a packmate of Eönwë's who doesn't have high hopes for his longevity and wants to implicate Shasta if Steve is a wolf.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Everybody. They have Huinewolf to observe. Of course, we have no idea what he's doing there, I mean the extremes are posting nonsense all Day and Night (in which case the innocents there do not know much) and him having actually spilled the names of his packmates there either as a newbieish mistake or as the ultimate trolling move. The likely scenario, form what I've seen from Huine before he was lynched, is something in between. Also it's worth bearing in mind that the qt is full of innocents who are freer to think outside the box than living innocents because 1) their time/energy is not swallowed up by having to defend themselves from accusations and 2) they can't fall into the trap of kneejerk suspicion against people who suspect them unlike we do (nor can they conversely discard their valid suspicions just because they might be kneejerk). Of course, they might also be paying less attention to the game than us living ones because understandably they have less to do. But still. I do think they have certain advantages in wolf spotting if they're willing to use them.

All good points.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm obviously not going to contradict Ka's reading of me, and I've been thinking along similar lines, but this (I mean Ka's post) would also make sense from a packmate of Eönwë's who doesn't have high hopes for his longevity and wants to implicate Shasta if Steve is a wolf.

Pitch with the same thing. Nice.