Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

So to me, the only logical reasons for them not to kill Boro are either

1) he was far enough off in one of his "dreams" that the wolves knew he wasn't the real Seer, or
2) he's one of them.

And

1a) After not falling for it. Granted I only tried to for like 2 days, once it turned out Lhuna was a wolf. I said what the heck, go for it and lay it on thick.

But wasn't convincing so now I'm probably being kept as an easy lynch. Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days. If they didn't fall for it, the pattern seems to be kill the people who look obviously innocent/difficult to lynch.

Eonwe and myself are the new Zil and Mac. At least that's what my thoughts are now. With my luck the QT innocents will now vote for me, because I ruined their trust and they're probably ****ed off. I still will tell them though, no rash decisions, I did all that I could to try to let the QT know I wasn't the seer. I thought it would send a good enough signal if they saw no purpose to what I was proposing and figured I'd be dead by now anyway.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And

1a) After not falling for it. Granted I only tried to for like 2 days, once it turned out Lhuna was a wolf. I said what the heck, go for it and lay it on thick.

But wasn't convincing so now I'm probably being kept as an easy lynch. Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days. If they didn't fall for it, the pattern seems to be kill the people who look obviously innocent/difficult to lynch.

Eonwe and myself are the new Zil and Mac. At least that's what my thoughts are now. With my luck the QT innocents will now vote for me, because I ruined their trust and they're probably ****ed off. I still will tell them though, no rash decisions, I did all that I could to try to let the QT know I wasn't the seer. I thought it would send a good enough signal if they saw no purpose to what I was proposing and figured I'd be dead by now anyway.

Genuinely not seeing Boro's side, why he thinks himself an easy lynch. Ka and Eonwe both go before Boro, IMO.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Boro

Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days.

I think Pitch did, actually. Like I said when I went through his posts, he definitely backed off quite quickly after initially engaging with Boro at the start of the Day.

[Thinlómien]

Typical of the ball to start rolling just as I have to get to cooking dinner etc but -

I might prefer Eönwë over Ka just to relieve him of his suffering earlier

I'll be popping in and out for the rest of the Day but you can consider my werewolf fatigue greatly alleviated and my vote for Eönwë or Ka guaranteed.

[Thinlómien]

I almost feel like patting Boro on the head (if he's not guilty that is ).

For the record, your paranoia about a potential last-minute bandwagon against you greatly added to my belief that you were the seer

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kath

I think Pitch did, actually. Like I said when I went through his posts, he definitely backed off quite quickly after initially engaging with Boro at the start of the Day.

Pitch definitely seems to have bought Boro's fake reveal.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm very confused all in all but - Eönwë, what post do you refer to? Why is the jury only "maybe" out on me?

Boro's post, quoted yet again:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

I felt like one possible interpretation is that in talking about innocents he may have only been talking about previous Days - and this seems to have maybe been the interpretation taken by Lalaith because she only pushes him on Day 1 (Brinn) and Zil (Day 3). But upon reread it does seem less likely.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I still don't suspect Lottie really (unless maybe if Boro turns out to be a wolf??) but her list made me raise about five eyebrows. What's the difference between "probably innocent" and "probably not a wolf"?? Like is there a middle ground? Also why on earth would you list yourself as "probably innocent"? Shouldn't you be more sure about that????

Originally I had only two groups, but I got nervous about being that confident about so many people, so I split the innocent group and put Boro and Rune into a slightly less confident group. Also, yes, I am very confident that I am innocent! But with the village getting so small, it was helpful for me at least to write out all of the names, and see who's left on the other side: Ka, Eonwe, Brinn, and Shasta (but only by default).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Originally I had only two groups, but I got nervous about being that confident about so many people, so I split the innocent group and put Boro and Rune into a slightly less confident group. Also, yes, I am very confident that I am innocent! But with the village getting so small, it was helpful for me at least to write out all of the names, and see who's left on the other side: Ka, Eonwe, Brinn, and Shasta (but only by default).

I'm so sad that your only feeling about me is default.

[Eönwë]

I still see no good reason for Boro to try what he did as an innocent for the reason he gave. It required him to really really strongly believe that Brinn, Zil, and Lommy were good and I was evil, and I find it very unlikely that any innocent is confident enough to do that and take such a gamble.

On the other hand, if he's a wolf, getting those innocents on his side would be a good way to softly take control of the village and exert some influence - he both gets to be listened to, and gets to hush discussion of a possible slip he made. A nice attempt at a save, but I still don't buy it.


+- Boro

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So yet another list from my hand… Inspired by Lottie.
This is not a thorough summarization of pros and cons, just a status on my feelings right now.

Big ol' wolf
Eönwë - Seriously let's get this done.

Possible wolf:
Brinn - My initial suspicion of her dwindled somewhat, probably due to her voting pattern and her playing it pretty safe.

Seems more innocent than not
Ka - I haven’t personally spotted any clear wolf like behaviour, but I see suspicion is mounting.
Boro - I assumed him the seer. Right now I believe him innocent. But it is a confusing plot, that could be devious.
Shasta - Probably the person I have the least read on.
Lottie - I started thinking Lottie looked very suspicious, but as the game progresses I think she makes more and more sense.

Probably innocent:
Lommy - Hmm there was the whole Sally thing so maybe she belong further up the list, but otherwise I feel really good about Lommy.
Greenie - Nothing but good vibes, she over analyzes stuff though.
Kath - Seems Kath-like and helpful (in the innocent way)

I have a toddler feeling ill at home, and a girlfriend taking an exam, so I will be voting shortly. Just in case. I will in all likelihood vote for Eönwë.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Yes, unless Brinn is a wolf. (Or for argument's sake: if I was.)

That's fair actually. Hm...

Anyway, regardless of all this madness, THE Ka is still the likeliest wolf in my book. I'm on the fence about Rune and Brinn, second-guessing Lottie (Lommy is right, that list was weird) and somewhat Eonwe too, and starting to get paranoid about Kath. I'm feeling pretty good about Lommy and Shasta, and will now stop talking about Boro because that's what he deserves.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Anyway, regardless of all this madness, THE Ka is still the likeliest wolf in my book. I'm on the fence about Rune and Brinn, second-guessing Lottie (Lommy is right, that list was weird) and somewhat Eonwe too, and starting to get paranoid about Kath. I'm feeling pretty good about Lommy and Shasta, and will now stop talking about Boro because that's what he deserves.

Fair enough, I'll just say though, I'm not the only one dropping seer hinting like crazy over the last couple days. I feel like we have 5 seers or none.

To answer Lommy on my real impressions...

I genuinely think I have a good read on Lommy, so sorry for you to find out I often include you in planning. It's just a habit, you're someone I read well.

I also feel good about Kath. Her questioning were like the few moments of clarity I had, because I don't feel like I'm getting tricked.

Lottie after I caused a disturbance Day 4, also someone I put in "trust."

Greenie I lean innocent, but not someone I would say I "trust."

Unsure about Rune and Shasta at the moment, because they're going with the seer vibes, which could be innocent as well, but after I came out with the truth they could be trying to seize on an opportunity. As they add to my feeling that we have all these seers, but none at the same time.

Eonwe and Brinn I could vote for either today, but not my preference. I think we need (or maybe just myself) a full day of rethinking since I kind of threw a big wrench at everyone today.

Ka as my preferred choice and vote today.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Hmmm. I reread Boro's non-reveal. I think I have been thinking him the seer for longer than he has pretended to be one, so perhaps I should blame mostly myself... I thought it explained not only some of his cryptic comments, but also why he gave me both unusual and innocent vibes, why he chose to act so weird on Day1, and why he's been so adamant about my innocence when basically everyone else has questioned it (and perhaps why he did such a legate180 about Brinn). I think his reveal sounds fairly innocent (why would a wolf do any of this? or admit it?), but I would like to ask him more than ever give his updated, honest opinion of everyone - but in particular Eönwë, Brinn and myself.

In my own self-quarantine I've been going back to the earliest of earliest beginnings. I miss the banter and the "I suspect SPM because I was woken up by pots and pans banging" or "I saw horse prints at the scene, it has to be Firefoot!" Or how I nicknamed SPM, Spam, because of his habit to have long novels of analysis and theory on everyone and every topic.

Now everyone hates Day 1s. And the longer I stay around, the tighter things get, the more tense I get because I don't want my natural weirdness to cause irreparable damage. In the banter you can find the some of the best and most entertaining interactions.

Like, fair enough if he was pretending to have dreamt of innocent me and Brinn. But how did he know Inzil was innocent?

I don't think I did say anything about knowing Zil's innocence? It was G55 and Brinn Day 1. Day 2 Huey and Mac. Day 3 everyone voted sally, there was no other wagon.

Not sure what to make of Boro's newborn fatalism. Also:

I TRUSTED YOU BUT I COULDN'T SAY IT TOO OPENLY BECAUSE I THOUGHT YOU WERE THE SEER AND IT WAS BETTER TO KEEP ENOUGH VOICED SUSPICION ON YOU TO KEEP YOU ALIVE.

I took that as seriously no one trusted me. Like an "Ok I can lynch Boro whenever because he's weird." I mean, what you say in hindsight makes sense. At the time I was twitchy by all the suspicion people were tossing around, without actually getting the votes. Hence the nerves after sally's reveal that there could be a bandwagon against me.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Genuinely not seeing Boro's side, why he thinks himself an easy lynch. Ka and Eonwe both go before Boro, IMO.

Whenever I'm in these villages, I always feel like it won't take a lot for a bandwagon. Someone says they're the hunter/ranger/seer and it's "well let's lynch Boro." QT votes and it doesn't take a lot of convincing to hop on that train.

[Loslote]

Just from a very quick scan of yesterDay's posts, I found a couple of posts from Shasta that looked Seerish. If that was on purpose to draw fire, well done, Shasta.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

This one in particular REALLY sounds like a Seer who might've dreamed me and Greenie innocent, and may have even dreamed Ka and Eonwe guilty. Followed by:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think at this point if I had to pick a third wolf for an Eonwe/Ka duo it would be Brinn. Outside shot at Kath, maybe - I've barely looked at her.

Which sounds a lot like "I'm going to dream Brinn next; I haven't dreamed of Kath, don't assume I have just because I've said she looks okay."

I haven't looked past yesterDay, but at this point I sort of assume the wolves are looking for Seer clues in the more recent Days. The Seer has more info now than they did early, so there might be more clues to find.

[Boromir88]

My poor child, thanks for giving your life to bring down more than one infector.

Which sounds a lot like "I'm going to dream Brinn next; I haven't dreamed of Kath, don't assume I have just because I've said she looks okay."~Lottie

I might have botched my plot, but glad some good came out of it for coming out when I did.

[Eönwë]

Looks like we managed to buy ourselves another Day!

I also think I'm going to have to go back and re-evaluate my opinions on everyone, since clearly I have no idea what's going on.

[Eönwë]

First though, an updated full vote count:

Bold is evil, italics is good.

Day 1
Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
Kath -> G55 (2)
Shasta -> Pitchwife (2)
Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
---G55 Fake Ranger Reveal---
Sally -> Brinn (7)

Reminder: while G55 is evil, because she's the Cobbler she and the Infectors didn't know who each other were at this point.



Day 2
Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7
Shasta -> Mac


Day 3
THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4
--- Sally Hunter reveal---
Inzil -> Brinn 2
Lottie -> Sally 5
Lalaith -> Sally 6
Legate -> Sally 7
Shasta -> Sally 8
Brinn -> Sally 9
Rune -> Inzil 2
Boro -> Sally 10
Pitch -> Eonwe



Day 4
Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7



Day 5
QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5
Pitch -> Inzil 6
THE Ka -> Shasta



Day 6
Shasta -> THE Ka
Rune -> Eönwë
Greenie -> THE Ka 2
QT -> Brinn
THE Ka -> Brinn 2
Brinn -> THE Ka 3
Lottie -> THE Ka 4
Boro -> THE Ka 5
Lommy -> THE Ka 6
Kath -> THE Ka
Eonwe -> THE Ka

[Eönwë]

So what, do we learn from the votes? Commenting as I look through.


Day 1
It looks like there were good and bad voters among the Brinn voters, so it's not clear whether we learn much here.

If Brinn is evil, it is unlikely that Rune is.
If Brinn is evil, Kath, Lottie and Lommy all voted to save her, so they could be evil.



Day 2
Plenty of good-aligned people voted for Mac, so a Mac-vote doesn't necessarily make you evil.

Rune and THE Ka voted for Lottie, which makes both Lottie look better - it's unlikely that THE Ka would make a packmate into a viable quarantine candidate. It also makes Rune look better - it's unlikely that wolves would vote for the same person immediately after one another.



Day 3
Both good and bad people voted for Sally, so we can't tell much from that. Theoretically, wolves might want to not vote Sally as a way of looking better later, but again, innocents voted for non-Sally candidates so we can't tell that much.



Day 4
I haven't gone back to look at the times, but Rune's vote definitely was to quarantine me and save Lhuna. Boro's may have also been, but it was a bit late.

It turns out THE Ka is capable of turning a packmate into a viable quarantine-candidate. Maybe Day 2 doesn't make Lottie look as good by association after all.



Day 5
We have one confirmed innocent voting for Inzil, and one confirmed innocent voting for Rune, so nothing obvious there.

If Rune is evil, Lottie seems likely to be innocent, since she brought him pretty close to being quarantined.



Day 6
Only Rune and THE Ka herself didn't vote for THE Ka. I see three options here. If Rune is evil, he tried to save a packmate, and the third packmate realised they had to go with the flow or get discovered, the wolves saw the current and decided to go with the flow, or, based on THE Ka's last posts about RL and time, she agreed to be sacrificed for the good of the wolfpack, which means that the earlier voters could also be wolves. Hard to tell

[Eönwë]

Looking at people's votes over all Days:

Lommy - Voted for Lhuna before it was a given that she was going to be quarantined, and THE Ka when it was. Voted to save Brinn on Day 1 and Rune on Day 5. Verdict: mostly good based on votes; less good if Brinn or Rune is evil.

Loslote - Voted Hui at a time when it could've gone in either direction, voted Boro before the village had made Lhuna a viable candidate, made THE Ka a clear frontrunner. Voted to save Brinn on Day 1 Verdict: mostly good based on votes; less good if Brinn is evil.

Kath - Has voted Zil (a known innocent) 3/6 Days, and voted THE Ka after her quarantining was inevitable. In her favour, she strengthened Lhuna's lead at an important time. Verdict: mostly good based on votes.

A Little Green - Until THE Ka yesterDay, only voted people who we know were innocent - Mac and then Zil. She did turn THE Ka into a viable candidate, but if THE Ka did offer herself up to be sacrificed, then this would fit into that account. Additionally, a second vote does not necessarily make a viable candidate. Verdict: mixed.

Boromir88 - Until yesterDay, when THE Ka's fate was mostly sealed, has only voted for innocents - Pitch, Mac, Sally, who are known innocents, and me for 2 Days. Verdict: bad.

Brinniel - Voted for Hui when it mattered, voted for Lhuna after it didn't, voted against Rune when it did. Made THE Ka votes a full-blown bandwaggon. Verdict: mostly good, but if Rune is evil, mixed; if Greenie is evil, less good (since that suggests that there was a plan on sacrificing THE Ka).

Rune Son of Bjarne - The only times his votes have had an impact is to save Lhuna on Day 4, and himself on Day 5. Voted for Brinn on Day 1. Verdict: bad; mixed if Brinn is evil.


So ignoring the conditionals, that leaves:

Mostly good: Lottie, Lommy, Kath, Brinn
Mixed: Greenie
Bad: Boro, Rune

Boro and Rune I already suspect, but I think moving forward it would be worth looking at Greenie more closely.