Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

This is what I meant by relieving Eönwë of his suffering. His posting toDay is coming across as an increasingly desperate wolf.

It's actually an increasingly frustrated innocent who's realised he doesn't know what's going on at all and is trying to connect things before he gets killed off.

[Eönwë]

Those of you who are innocent: I urge you to talk more and actually have meaningful discussion toDay. When it turns out I'm innocent, you don't want to have realised you've wasted the Day's discussion as well as the vote.

edit: x-ed with Rune (I wrote this post and forgot to actually click 'submit')

[Eönwë]

Well done Brinn! I'm interested to see how the wolves react to this.

[Eönwë]

To those of you who did want to quarantine me, think about this: if you were an innocent and someone who very well may have made a wolf slip was pretending to be the seer and voted you two Days in a row (while a real Seer would have already checked by that point), wouldn't you you go after him once it was clear he was not?

And when, after this ended up backfiring, someone else posted seerishly but hinted at you also being a wolf, wouldn't you suspect that too, even if the person they voted for does look a bit suspicious to you?

I really don't see what the benefit would've been in doing any of this as a wolf, except for maybe a more toned-down and refined version of my first post against Boro yesterDay.

[Eönwë]

Let's do this then.

++Kath

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Incredible. Absolutely amazing. What a Seer game! I don't know about the wolves, but I didn't think it was you for one second. What a play!

Thank you! I did my best to leave clues but remain undetected. When dreamed of Lhuna, I made my suspicions of her clear, but I didn't want to be the driving force of her lynch, especially once that bandwagon took off. I never did dream of Inzil because if I was wrong about him, pulling a Legate180 could be too obvious to the wolves (sorry Inzil). I really thought I could be killed last Night after defending Eonwe's innocence, but they went for Shasta instead.

Originally Posted by Lommy

But something's just very off about the Shasta kill.

I was a little surprised about it. But my guess is they thought he was a seer who hadn't dreamt of Eonwe yet. If that's the case, then I think Lottie's more likely innocent.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I am not the last wolf; my initial reaction would be to say that I don't think it's Boro, either, but I was so wrong about Eonwe, maybe it's not a great idea to trust that at this point! Still, I don't know why a Borowolf would give up control of the QT vote if he secretly knew he had it, so I would guess that the last wolf is Rune.

My guess is Rune too, but I'm not going to completely discount the possibility of you or Boro being evil.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Seriously this is a bit too good to be true?! If Brinn is legit, we just won???

I think yeah, pretty much. That's why I had to come out toDay.

If the Innocent Child doesn't come out, we can technically afford a mislynch toMorrow if I don't dream a wolf. However, I can't understand why they wouldn't come out at this point.

[Thinlómien]

We're 8, including 2 wolves.

We lynch an innocent toDay? ToMorrow is Day7 - we are 6, including 2 wolves. We lynch a wolf, then on Day8 we are 4 including 1. We need to lynch a wolf again. (We don't lynch a wolf toDay or toMorrow, game over immediately. But frankly that's not possible.)

We lynch a wolf toDay? ToMorrow it's 6, including 1 wolf. We miss our shot? On Day8 we have still the 4 including 1 scenario.

So: in short, in order to win we have to lynch 2 wolves in 3 days. In other words, we can afford to mislynch once.

So: I don't think it would make sense for the wolves to fake seer reveal in this situation. Okay, maybe to "flush out the real seer" but what's really the chance at this point that the real seer 1) won't come out toDay anyway, 2) would survive the next Night in hiding?

I'm still quite baffled by this turn of events, probably because I still find it hard to believe Eönwë is innocent (really, the wolves have been killing people who suspected him for at least three Nights in a row. What's up with that?)

(Side note: Also recalling what I said about there having to be one wolf among Brinn-Boro-Eönwë. Hmm...)

Lastly - I did the maths, what Brinn says about the innocent child is foolproof, especially with the clever qt communication plan. The innocent child will not die if they come out in this case. (Of course if they're neurotic, they can do it very late toDay and wait if a more credible counter reveal appears. But I just don't know what would be a more believable counter reveal. I mean this reveal comes with a great innocent village plan that no sane wolf would spell out loud. MAYBE this could be a brilliant wolf move if the wolves would win if we mislynched toDay. But as it is? Highly doubt it. Stellar job from Brinn either way. )

Seriously this is a bit too good to be true?! If Brinn is legit, we just won???



But yes, the innocent child has to come out for this to work. And there's no way the bad guys in the qt can mess this up either.