Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Am I paranoid or does Legate's #228 read like a paraphrase of my #222 with a higher word count?

I hate to just repeat someone else, but I think this is one of the things about Legate that makes me uncomfortable this game. He made some good points, but someone else had made them first, so he's able to say the same thing while also being safer and less likely to be attacked for saying it.

[A Little Green]

Nog, have some chocolate and come back please. <3

It's getting close to bedtime for me, and since someone has to get the ball rolling, it might as well be me. I feel most comfortable going for

++ Kath

I've said this before - she set Huin up as a suspect (based on reasoning that didn't really hold water, ie. saying Huin probed others without voicing opinions on them himself when he'd done more of that than almost anyone else at that point), left it to take root and then came back and voted for him once others already had. It's consistent in a way that looks choreorgaphed rather than genuine.

My other option was Nog, but I have more reservations about him than Kath at the moment.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Formy #267

Pitchwife - Right there with Kath in my morning post and he actually wins the tiebreaker because his vote is a real "not commiting to any bandwaggon" kind of vote, and those look and feel wolf-on-wolf to me--and, of course, my suspicion of Kath reinforces this concern. He's my top suspect, but I probably SHOULDN'T tie his judgement so closely to hers.

Wait a sec. So I'm your top suspect because of the (effectively inconsequential) placing of my vote would be perfect for wolf-on-wolf, which of course would depend on Kath being a wolf with me, but at the same time you seem to be saying your suspicion of me shouldn't be tied to your suspicion of her? Am I reading this right, or were you actually making sense and I just don't see it?
How could my vote be wolf-on-wolf WITHOUT Kath being a wolf?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Wait a sec. So I'm your top suspect because of the (effectively inconsequential) placing of my vote would be perfect for wolf-on-wolf, which of course would depend on Kath being a wolf with me, but at the same time you seem to be saying your suspicion of me shouldn't be tied to your suspicion of her? Am I reading this right, or were you actually making sense and I just don't see it?
How could my vote be wolf-on-wolf WITHOUT Kath being a wolf?

No, you read it right--though I might have said phrased it backwards. It would be more accurate to what I meant to say that my assessment of Kath should be more independent of the vote for her --but I was writing/thinking of the two of you together and that came out in your section.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Won't get much from me today, I'm afraid - I'll be much more active tomorrow, should I live to see it.

I do have a point I noticed while skimming - Pitch and Kath both call out BG for pointing out gifteds, but Form does the same (if less egregiously) and no one batted an eye. I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

Hey, I did bat an eye (#243)! I agree a wolf has no need of that (except if you think you can get them lynched or at least put enough pressure on them to force a reveal and confirm your suspicion, but normally you'd just kill them at Night, much less risky). A cobbler might, though, which fits my read on Form since pretty well the beginning of D1.


As for BG, well. I've noticed she seems to rely a lot on stuff other people have said (cf. 'Form as the cobbler because people say he may be'), which is not what we'd usually expect of an innocent, but in her case it's so blatant it may just be her playstyle, so I'm beginning to reconsider how suspicious her piggybacking on Hui's vote actually was.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

No, you read it right--though I might have said phrased it backwards. It would be more accurate to what I meant to say that my assessment of Kath should be more independent of the vote for her --but I was writing/thinking of the two of you together and that came out in your section.

Are you now saying that if I hadn't voted her there and then you wouldn't consider her as wolvish as you do?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Are you now saying that if I hadn't voted her there and then you wouldn't consider her as wolvish as you do?

Well, yes--it's the whole package and what actually happened that I find suspicious. Take out some of the pieces, and the whole Jenga falls.

As to the Shasta-noted Gifted-surmising... call it rust? I mean, I guess it makes sense to not point the wolves to someone you don't want them to hunt... but I don't actually know if that's true of either Nog or Shasta. They each give a vibe... I just don't know which side of the spectrum it is.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

As to the Shasta-noted Gifted-surmising... call it rust? I mean, I guess it makes sense to not point the wolves to someone you don't want them to hunt... but I don't actually know if that's true of either Nog or Shasta. They each give a vibe... I just don't know which side of the spectrum it is.

No you don't, but the wolves would knowwhether Shasta or Nog are among them or not, so in case they're not you're narrowing down the choices for the wolves. How do I even have to explain this? (Also why am I bothering?)

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shasta, yesterDay

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

=/=

Originally Posted by Shasta, toDay

Huey's answer to me was a good ping, but it didn't outweigh the bad pings I'd had about him throughout the day.

I mean, I believe that that was what was on your mind, but that's still not what you said.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Also note that I was the first real vote of the day (sorry, Nilp) and left the thread completely right after voting.

Not suspicious because of the placement of your vote, but because of the tone of "I like his answer, but oh well".

[Nogrod]

Well. The Japanese are fighting back ferociously so I decided to take a pause from the combat fatigue and see what's going on in here.

Some unarranged thoughts.

BG looks like a rookie trying to learn the ropes and making a few fumbles on the way. That said there was at least one newbie-wolf back in the days who took all the juice out of the role of being a newbie and went far - did they even win? I don't remember who it was, but it was several years ago. Anyway BG is not topping my list of possible wolves.

Rikae I find a bit confusing - albeit that is more a "feeling-thing". I'm used to not feel secure or easy about her ever, but normally she does turn into quite reasonable and productive player if innocent. Thus far I haven't felt it. Well, it's Day2 so there's time for that transformation to take place.

ShastaI've liked thus far, well yesterDay, as toDay he hasn't said much but explain some of his posts from Day1. Why? Because he was one of the very few who actually made points about others - and they were reasonable points to my ear (and mind) at least.

I have disturbing vibes from Kath, Form and Brinn, maybe also of Greenie. Some of them are related to the points already raised by some others, the rest are just personal feelings of something not being quite honest there.

I still see Legate as the best bet to vote, but I'll see if I can find better choices during the last hour.

(Say what you say, but I still think my points are valid. Instead of yelling "no!", please offer a more logical, or better fact-serving, theory of Lottie's death.)

[Macalaure]

Greenie - I find myself agreeing with her mostly, but something about her overall tone makes me uneasy.

BG - A wolf wouldn't do the things she's doing, I think.

Brinn - Not much of a read yet, slightly leaning innocent atm.

Form - No read whatsoever.

Kath - I get where Greenie is coming from, but I feel too unsure about it right now. Wait and see.

Legate - Something feels off about him.

Nog - Something feels very off about him.

Nilp - "Mac (by the reasoning Nog and I have advanced)" - you're kidding, right?

Pitch - Still not a fan of his vote yesterDay, but he seems fairly innocent toDay. Another wait and see.

Rikae - Feels fairly innocent.

Sally - Not much to go on yet. Repeats my point that Legate is repeating points. Yet I'm the one with the stones in the glasshouse.

Shasta - Still suspicious because of his behavior yesterDay. Hasn't changed.

Lommy - Feels fairly innocent.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Won't get much from me today, I'm afraid - I'll be much more active tomorrow, should I live to see it.

I do have a point I noticed while skimming - Pitch and Kath both call out BG for pointing out gifteds, but Form does the same (if less egregiously) and no one batted an eye. I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I still think Pitch is exactly the Cobbler, although I also thought Huin was the NW, so.

I think Mac is misrepresenting my vote and the reasoning behind it, but I don't know if I think it's intentional or not.

I was honestly a bit surprised to see the Huin-wagon happen, given the state of the thread when I left. It wouldn't surprise me if there was a wolf there; it also wouldn't surprise me if there was one in the set of people decrying his innocence after the wagon was set in motion. Those are the two groups I'll look into when I get time tonight.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think Mac is misrepresenting my vote and the reasoning behind it, but I don't know if I think it's intentional or not.

Do explain then.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Do explain then.

Well, for starters, this -

Originally Posted by Mac

Anyway, votes that struck me suspicious:
Shasta because "I like his answer but I'll vote him anyway". I'd expect an innocent to care a bit more than that.

- is not quite what I said.

Originally Posted by Shasta

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

Huey's answer to me was a good ping, but it didn't outweigh the bad pings I'd had about him throughout the day.

Also note that I was the first real vote of the day (sorry, Nilp) and left the thread completely right after voting.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Won't get much from me today, I'm afraid - I'll be much more active tomorrow, should I live to see it.

I do have a point I noticed while skimming - Pitch and Kath both call out BG for pointing out gifteds, but Form does the same (if less egregiously) and no one batted an eye. I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

I didn't spot that, Shasta. Whereabouts was that?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Kath

I didn't spot that, Shasta. Whereabouts was that?

Originally Posted by Form

Shasta, Rikae, Nog, and Kath.

Shasta has a relatively high post-count (tied for 3rd at 18), but this is somewhat deceptive as a guide to his activity level, since his modus operandi was to make quick, one-paragraph replies to specific people/topics. He rarely posted in great depth--but he was involved. My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf.

Rikae disturbs me, but I don't know why. Just a different vibe/posting style?

Nog DOESN'T disturb me, and I actually think that's suspicious--as though he's trying too hard to be mellow and disinterested. That makes me think Gifted/Wolf again, but I lean Wolf.

Kath seems just a bit off-kilter, but I don't know why. She's the only one of these four that I think a possible cobbler right now.

I'm sensitive to mentions of me () which why I spotted it the first time, but going back to grab it to quote I notice that he said it about Nog as well.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm sensitive to mentions of me () which why I spotted it the first time, but going back to grab it to quote I notice that he said it about Nog as well.

You're quite right and now you bring it up I think I did notice it when I first read through but missed it when skimming to find where I'd seen something about Gifteds that had bothered me.

So then Form, Nog, Nilp, BG. I sincerely doubt all four of them are wolves. Nilp's comment picked up on what Nog had said, which makes me think he is the more suspicious for it. BG is just ... I mean that whole post was picking out potential Gifteds and that is just a bad idea.

[Brinniel]

Shasta, I had previously noticed Formy's gifted comment about Nog but somehow missed the mention of you. And then there's BG... *facepalm*

But seriously, what is with all the open discussion of gifteds? I had thought by now it was common knowledge to keep that sort of speculation quiet in the game thread.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

I would also ask what need would an innocent have to call out possible gifteds? Perhaps a cobbler tactic... or a NW?

I understand Nog's frustration of being a suspect, but that could come from a frustrated innocent or wolf.

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Shasta, I had previously noticed Formy's gifted comment about Nog but somehow missed the mention of you. And then there's BG... *facepalm*

But seriously, what is with all the open discussion of gifteds? I had thought by now it was common knowledge to keep that sort of speculation quiet in the game thread.


I would also ask what need would an innocent have to call out possible gifteds? Perhaps a cobbler tactic... or a NW?

I understand Nog's frustration of being a suspect, but that could come from a frustrated innocent or wolf.

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.

That's an interesting point - maybe the NW would do it in order to draw votes.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

But seriously, what is with all the open discussion of gifteds? I had thought by now it was common knowledge to keep that sort of speculation quiet in the game thread.

Yes. I agree wholeheartedly. That said...

I promised not to make any defenses, but this has larger bearing than just my fate in this game. I mean, yes, I brought up the idea of Mac being possibly a choice for the wolves as the Seer - so I'm part of the problem? BUT, I thought it was obvious to anyone who read my posts, that I was making it a case that showed how bad the idea of thinking Lottie a Seer was based on her saying Hui is innocent. Like: if you thought that would be reason enough, then even this would be better (or as good).

My point was, and is, that Legate-version is much more believable - because even Mac could be seen as the Seer if that kind of posting would be a reasonable thing to pay heed to (Sure: frantic wolves desperate to find the Seer might of course take any straw they find to be grasped). Like someone has said already: it would be really odd, if Seer-Mac would have said something like that. He knows better than that.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I would also ask what need would an innocent have to call out possible gifteds? Perhaps a cobbler tactic... or a NW?

Actually it might make sense for a NW who is reckoning to get lynched and have no further chance of Night-talking with their pack.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.

I don't either, but so far she's looking rather innocentish to me.


Actually, trying to arrange my impressions into a scale, suspicion increasing top -> down:


Lommy/Greenie/Brinn
Rikae/Mac
Legate/Shasta/BG
Form/Nilp
Nog/Kath

sally should go on a hovering bar to the right of the scale, because darned if I know.