Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Loslote]

Also, I don't buy that this clears Mac. I didn't catch the bait yesterDay, I don't think it's out of the question that the wolves might have missed it or decided to look elsewhere. Nilp didn't post enough otherwise for this to ping on radars, I think. I'm tentatively believing his claim, but I don't think it was as effective as he'd hoped.

[Loslote]

Also, if the wolves HAD killed Nilp, it would have been painfully obvious that Mac was a wolf.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nilp - there are so many things that could catch a wolf pack's attention. Like BG's seer comments. Or basically any arbitrary suspicion OR trust towards someone. Just because you weren't Night killed for weirdly suspecting Mac doesn't mean Mac is innocent - if he's a wolf, he has three fellow wolves who might have received even weirder suspicions.

Yes, thank you, Lommy!

[Blind Guardian]

Is it just weird to me that no one is taking Nilp as a Beast Hunter seriously?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Shasta - I keep flipflopping about him but I think BG's death is a big point in favour of his innocence.

I reread through the Day 1 and 2 posts and came up with some reason that Shasta was a ranger but even I don't remember what that was. No one should trust anything I say at this point. I was wrong about Nog, I am probably wrong about Formy..

And I don't even know what to think about Nilp except bad timing. No one was suspecting him of being the BH and now he's outing himself? I don't know man...

And I DEFINITELY don't trust that Nilp actually used his trap on himself last Night (if he even is the BH).

Also lots of people (almost everyone) thought that either Pitch or Nilp were the Cobbler. If Nilp is the BH and Pitch is the Cobbler than the Seer is still out there (and very well hidden).

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

And I don't even know what to think about Nilp except bad timing. No one was suspecting him of being the BH and now he's outing himself? I don't know man...

Yep, this. I have no idea what's going on with him.

We're at, what, 3.5 hours to DL? Does anyone have any thoughts on who we should a) Mediumize or b) boost a vote for? Personally I still don't trust Form, and agree with Lottie that Mac looks suspect. Kath... I don't know, I keep going back and forth on her. It would help (me) if she posted more than once a page.

As for who I trust... Lommy looks pretty innocent, but I don't like her focus on Rikae, because so do they. Greenie I still think good things of.

And then there's Nilp, who (per #386) seems to have noticed the same number issues I did, and is trying a neutered version of the Seer-reveal gambit. Except he doesn't actually no anything, so how would that work? And the whole execution seem so Cobblerish that... I just don't know.

(Pitch I just vaguely mistrust, Legate I can't get a read on, Sally hasn't posted enough for me to read, and... is Shasta still alive? Not sure there, either.)

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

And then there's Nilp, who (per #386) seems to have noticed the same number issues I did, and is trying a neutered version of the Seer-reveal gambit. Except he doesn't actually no anything, so how would that work? And the whole execution seem so Cobblerish that... I just don't know.

If he's legit, then he's essentially trying what I did D1, but he can actually control where the trap is. He's bluffing that he doesn't have the trap toNight, but he might have the Ranger save, so it's dangerous for them to target him - but they might take that chance anyway. It's all bluffs and double bluffs, and it might help confuse the wolves.

As far as who to Mediumize, do we want to draw attention to Greenie if we think she might be the Seer? We might want to avoid Mediumizing her so we don't put a target on her back. I'd want to see Mac or Legate lynched toDay, I think, so maybe someone who's voting for them?

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

As far as who to Mediumize, do we want to draw attention to Greenie if we think she might be the Seer? We might want to avoid Mediumizing her so we don't put a target on her back. I'd want to see Mac or Legate lynched toDay, I think, so maybe someone who's voting for them?

Good point on Greenie. I'm happy to gun for Mac, and will take your word on Legate.

We need three out of four votes, and we have no idea when they'll all start voting... is everyone here going to be available at DL?

hS

[Nogrod]

If Nilp was the Cobbler, that would have been a perfect act at the perfect time. Whether the Ranger would fall on it, is naturally another matter. But it would have been a nice try anyway - and if succesful, really genius.

I haven' read the actual Thread yet (well after my last visit here couple of hours ago), but I have one preliminary suggestion. If Greenie looks a) Seerish and/or b) good & reasonable, then let's vote for someone who votes the same she does. Greenie tends to vote early because she tries to go to sleep in decent hours, but us empowering her might draw too much unwanted attention to her (if she is the Seer).

But yes.

Are you all going to be around the DL, or are we in any hurry with this?


EDIT: X'd with both

[Loslote]

I’ll be around at the DL, and I agree with Mediumizing someone who votes the way Greenie does.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Greenie looks a) Seerish and/or b) good & reasonable, then let's vote for someone who votes the same she does. Greenie tends to vote early because she tries to go to sleep in decent hours, but us empowering her might draw too much unwanted attention to her (if she is the Seer).

This is a good plan (assuming she doesn't vote somewhere we really don't like - even Seers can go wrong).

She's commented on Nilp now (#392) and has essentially said 'I absolutely believe he's innocent' (but more subtly). To have not even shown a little wariness, I think she has to be either Seer or Fake Seer. (Not necessarily Evil Fake Seer, but with that many reads already...)

Edit: I can be here at DL (but would love to not need to be!).

hS