Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Then what do you mean by "do it again"?

Again, by "do it again" I mean "trap another wolf."

Am I not explaining this correctly?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Again, by "do it again" I mean "trap another wolf."

Am I not explaining this correctly?

I hope you're just covering your tail here, and not assuming I'm too slow to understand the surface meaning of what you said.

Your cover story doesn't work. The beast hunter has one trap.

[Rikae]

I've seen it a million times - baddies can't resist the temptation to make those kinds of jokes, and I could see Sally *especially* giving it to it.

Trouble is it could be just as cobblerish as wolfish. Wolf-playing-cobbler-playing-ordoish. Nobody wants to lynch the cobbler toDay.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I've seen it a million times - baddies can't resist the temptation to make those kinds of jokes, and I could see Sally *especially* giving it to it.

Trouble is it could be just as cobblerish as wolfish. Wolf-playing-cobbler-playing-ordoish. Nobody wants to lynch the cobbler toDay.

Oh my God. I reread the rules after the narration posted and missed the part where he only got to do that once. Well....biscuits and gravy.

Nope, that's fair. Suspect away, because that was stupid of me. I totally forgot about that rule.

[Macalaure]

Formendacil, or rather, what people said about him

Day1
He pretty much got under scrutiny right away, with people forming some half-joking suspicions based on ic posts, wolf strategy, possible cobbler hints, Day1 grumpiness, and no-lynch stuff. Rereading/reskimming it, he sure made it easy to suspect him, which gives the cobbler suspicions some merit. Anyway, among the still-alive, Sally, Brinn, Pitch, Lommy, Shasta, and Rikae are the ones caught up in it, so more than half the village. I don't feel like I can tell for sure here who may have been grasping for straws to set him up and who was grasping for straws because there wasn't anything else to grasp for yet. Oddly none of the still-living ended up voting for him.


Day2
-Kath analyzes Lottie and is lead to mention a Form-Legate-Nog pack.
-Pitch agrees with BG about her bad Form gut feeling, and with Kath's idea, too, while throwing more names into the pot.
-Brinn agrees with Legate that if BG is a wolf, Form likely is not, and vice versa.
-Pitch brings up Form's gifted discussion and says that if Form or Nilp were the NW, the pack would not have come to save either.
-Lommy: if Form is a wolf, look at Nog and Kath. Also agrees with Pitch. Puts him on her list of suspects and says she's flip-flopping on him.
-Sally finds Form suspicious without giving a reason, putting him as No. 1 in her possible wolf pack list.
-Rikae has Form as vaguely suspicious.
-Pitch goes after him because of the way he worded his suspicion of Pitch and Kath. Legitimate in general, but Pitch's reaction seems a bit much.
-Shasta brings to attention that people point out BG's gifted discussion but not enough go for Form's, though he also says that wolves don't have much of a reason to in the first place. (Why point this out if you don't think it's wolfish?) Kath replies to this that she didn't notice and Pitch replies that he did.
-Pitch adds that wolves have no reason to, but cobblers do.
-Brinn adds that the NW might as well, and Shasta agrees.
-Pitch puts Form in his fourth tier of suspicion, due to cobbler suspicions, I assume.
-Lommy puts him into a very large "who knows" category, saying he doesn't sit right with her, but that it might be kneejerk. Later considers voting for him and still later does, since he's the most suspicious one among those who have votes.
-Brinn could go for him as well, says his posts look calculated. (Not sure what she means by this.)
-Pitch wanted to vote for Kath but Form's vote makes him reconsider.
-Lommy tries to steer Nog into voting for him.
-Pitch could vote for Form but rather wouldn't, since he thinks he's the cobbler.
-Brinn wants to vote for Nog but doesn't consider him feasible at this point. Form is her second choice.
-Kath votes Nilp, wants to go through Form's posts before judging him.
-Sally, too, doesn't vote Form due to cobbler suspicion.
-Shasta votes for Form without time to explain.

Not sure whether the Form-cobbler faction is more or less suspicious, honestly. None of the still living had him as their first suspect, but many considered voting him and some did. There's a lot of agreeing posts in here, which doesn't sit too well with me.


Day3
-Brinn says that she preferred Nog over Form since Form looked more like a cobbler. She analyzes BG and concludes that it doesn't look good for Form.
-Sally is the first among the still-living to actually go all out to suspect him. Didn't like that Form suspected her for being quiet. Says the Nogrod lynch may have been to save Form. She lists Kath alongside him.
-Brinn changes her mind from Form-cobbler to Form-NW.
-Shasta is the first to say that Form is suspicious for still being alive and that he's being saved.
-Rikae doesn't buy Form's vote explanation, implies they think he's a wolf.
-Lommy agrees with Brinn on Form looking suspicious due to BG, but still hesitates, and also on Form possibly being the NW. Picks up a post of Greenie on me and Form and adds that it wouldn't surprise her to see me be wolves with him.
-Nilp states that he had trusted Form but is confused about it now.
-Lommy lists him as double hmmmmm, due to not dying, posting statistics instead of opinions, and BG's suspicion.
-Brinn doesn't like Form's reaction to Nilp's reveal.
-Kath says the general suspicion about Form makes more sense now that she noticed... his Day1 post about not voting??
-Shasta lists Form as first option next to Kath, because of the traction thing - i.e. since he keeps not getting lynched.
-Rikae envisions a scenario with Form as wolf and Brinn and me innocent (which yesterDay at first struck me as a super obvious seer hint) and then speculates on packmates based on this. (And they manage to rub a whole bunch of people the wrong way which is quite amusing to read, no matter who's guilty or not in this bunch.)
-Kath went back to reading up on Form and finds a number of points against him, which each look ok on their own.
-Brinn says that Form and Pitch stick out to her, leaning Form, who she suspects to be the NW planning to foil Nilp in death. Kath will agree with this and also with that the NW should still be lynched.
-Shasta states that Rikae and Legate wanted to save both, Kath and Form.

And here come the votes:
-Kath++Form
-Sally states she still wants to lynch Form.
-Rikae++Form
-Sally++Form
-Shasta++Form
-Lommy agrees with Shasta's Form/Kath idea, though she's not sure about it. Wants to vote for Form since she's not convinced of Legate's guilt.
-Lommy++Form
-me++Form
-Legate++Form
-Brinn doesn't like that everybody is voting for Form.
-Pitch++Form, after briefly considering Legate.
-Nilp++Form
-Brinn++Form
-Lommy has heavy second thoughts after Form's testament.

Kath - ignores him at first then warms up to lynching him after others prod her to. Her one larger post about him looks ok by itself, but given that Form did do a lot of odd things, it's not too hard to fabricate for a wolf. So while on the one hand this was a very convenient way to go for her, why would wolfKath ignore him for so long at first?

Rikae - I really don't know what to make of them at all...

Sally - giving credit to her for being the first among the still-living to firmly suspect him instead cobbler stuff or him being one of many suspects. The tightness of her case is just so-so.

Shasta - two things rub me wrong pretty strongly: pointing out Form's gifted talk while one sentence later saying it's not wolfish. Very much feels like he's trying to make other people suspicious of him while washing his own hands of it. Then there his idea that Form is more suspicious because he keeps surviving, which is still nonsense to me.

Lommy - she's the only one who, while suspicious of Form, maintains a hesitant tone. A wolf might do that to not look too bad once the innocent is dead, but it feels genuine. She too though says that Form is suspicious for not dying, though.

Pitch - maintains the Form-cobbler thing for the longest time. A wolf could discuss the cobblerness of an innocent to make them look bad without accusing them of being a wolf. Interestingly, he doesn't meaningfully mention him at all on Day3.

Nilp - only says that he's confused. That's it. Yep.

Brinn - has Form high on her list pretty consistently. Said she held back because she thought him to be the cobbler, but changed her mind on Day3. Getting the feeling of an innocent, though a somewhat single-minded one.


Based on this only, I'd say roughly:

Shasta - Pitch/Kath - Rikae/Sally - Nilp - Lommy/Brinn

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Mac

Brinn - has Form high on her list pretty consistently. Said she held back because she thought him to be the cobbler, but changed her mind on Day3. Getting the feeling of an innocent, though a somewhat single-minded one.

I truly have had tunnel vision these last couple Days unfortunately. Maybe these folks with spreadsheets are doing something right, though the thought of creating spreadsheets myself makes me cringe.

Mac, I'm curious to know who you think Greenie dreamed of. Mainly because I thought Shasta seemed likely to be one of her dreams and if I'm right, that would make him innocent. However you list him as suspicious, so clearly you disagree.

[Brinniel]

This post includes any quotes of living players that talk about/interact with Legate (excluding Nilp whom I will presume is the BH as nothing has led me to think otherwise).

Day 1

Originally Posted by Lommy

Under my radar so far - Legate, Mac, Pitch, Brinn

Originally Posted by Lommy

Agreed with Nogrod re: Legate's point about wolf and cobbler quietness correlating not making any sense.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

Added this quote because I forgot about this post. Which reiterates my theory that the wolves didn't kill Lottie because she was a seer who already dreamed him, but because they thought she would.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't get Legate about quiet wolves & cobbler either - at least for the latter, isn't being quiet kind of the contrary of their job description, i.e. drawing attention from the wolves?

So other than Lommy and Pitch agreeing that Legate's comment "But if we do have a quiet Cobbler, the WWs themselves may also be less bold." didn't make sense, there is no other mention of our known wolf. Inconclusive.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Kath on Lottie's death

Could be a ploy from a Form-Legate-Nog wolf-pack (but please, please, no to that). If she's the Seer and had dreamt one of them it's so early in the game it's worth the risk, and if she's not the Seer they could claim set-up.

Originally Posted by Mac

I think Legate was the only one to mention me at all yesterDay, so he deserves a reply. I was kind of stressed out on Day1 and couldn't participate as much as I wanted to. I do have every intention to do better toDay. Still, "almost zero content" is harsh. Not entirely inaccurate at that point, but still harsh.

Originally Posted by Mac

If the wolves thought she was the seer, it would obviously point to Legate, but I don't see it.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...

Originally Posted by Mac

Am I paranoid or does Legate's #228 read like a paraphrase of my #222 with a higher word count?

Originally Posted by Lommy

For the record, those who DON'T sound particularly innocent to me are:

Brinniel
Formendacil
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
satansaloser2005

and I'm likely to vote one of them toDay. The one who stands out to me the most is probably Nogrod, who seems to be contrivedly making mountains out of molehills (yes, I know we don't have much to go on, but there's a fabricated undertone to his speculations) and a little tense too. I know he prefers to be innocent so being a wolf could totally make him act like this.

Legate, Sally, and Brinn I'd all like to hear more from.

Originally Posted by Rikae

If I were a wolf-Legate, her shift at last minute would certainly have been alarming, but my likely conclusion would be either she's a) a seer who hasn't dreamt me yet but is likely to, or b) a perceptive ordo. In the first case I'd be as good as dead, in the latter, my best chance of survival would be to not kill her immediately. I would see little harm in letting her live another day. for observation, on the off chance it was b) and I'd get out of it unscathed.

I'm really not buying (lots of that going on, is this a village meeting or a market?) Nog's theory that Lottie would have looked like a seer who dreamed Legate already. If she wanted to hint, she'd have been way more subtle, not ignored him all day and then painted a big target on herself at deadline.

Now, Nog is another matter. If I were a Nogwolf, there would be every reason to kill Lottie, both as a potential seer and as someone the village was likely to treat as a semi-known innocent toDay, and little reason not to, as it doesn't draw attention to him nearly as dramatically as to Legate.

Of course this mostly applies to any other wolf as well. I'm going to need to go back and look at what Lottie said about those she found innocentish, I think.

But for now, -1 wolf point to Legate, +1 wolf point to Nogrod.

For the record, I think they were spot on with scenario A in the first paragraph. Doesn't necessarily indicate their role either way.

Originally Posted by Sally

Legate: Yellow light in that I have NO impression and that bothers me

This feels fishy to me.

Originally Posted by Sally

I hate to just repeat someone else, but I think this is one of the things about Legate that makes me uncomfortable this game. He made some good points, but someone else had made them first, so he's able to say the same thing while also being safer and less likely to be attacked for saying it.

This makes me think that its less likely Mac and Sally are in a pack together. Would two wolves openly agree on suspicion against a packmate?

Originally Posted by Mac

Legate - Something feels off about him.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I wanted to make a list, but I could more or less just copypaste Legate's. I don't know what to make of that (in regards to how I feel about Legate's innocence). It's kinda creepy.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Actually, trying to arrange my impressions into a scale, suspicion increasing top -> down:
Lommy/Greenie/Brinn
Rikae/Mac
Legate/Shasta/BG
Form/Nilp
Nog/Kath

Originally Posted by Lommy

Legate - I find him making a lot of sense but also he seems more passive and less confrontational than last time when he was an ordo and I think he usually does flow more under the radar when a wolf

Originally Posted by Lommy

PS. Legate's latest post is AGAIN creepily similar to my own thinking. Maybe it makes me feel a bit better about him?

Originally Posted by Brinn in response to Lommy's analysis of Legate

I have noticed that he has been a bit quieter than what I've normally seen from him. I've been in agreement with him on a lot of things, but of course that doesn't mean he isn't evil. Legate is not someone I'd care to see lynched toDay, but I think he does gander a closer look toMorrow.

Yes, to be fair, I'm including myself in the quotes.

Conclusions: There were a bunch of psuedo-suspicions of Legate that may be wolf-on-wolf as no one follows through on them. Sally or Mac feel the most sinister, followed by Pitch.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Mac

Legate -> Nogrod - x'ed with Rikae. Nog had been over him all day, so this vote seems understandable, if a bit knee-jerk. I don't think either Rikae or Legate expected their vote to take off like it did.

Originally Posted by Sally

I'd also consider a lynch of Legate or Mac.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I took a look through Legate's posts since I said I would. His posting seems less frequent than last game, but I like the content of his posts, probably because I agree with a lot of it. I don't really buy into Nogrod's theory that Lottie died because the wolves thought she dreamed of an evil Legate. Sure it's possible, but I still find it more likely that they thought her a seer that dreamed of Hui. Her suspicion of Legate came late in the Day, and I think a Legatewolf would more likely risk another Day than immediately kill her as a possible seer.

I am now going to sound reactionary because from what I've read toDay I am concerned about Greenie. As I'm her top suspect, that may well be because she's trying to get me lynched, but actually it was what she said to Legate that made me look again.

This just seemed a little harsh! Last minute voting is often an issue and I just don't recall her being so up in arms over it.

How about a Greenie-Legate-Nilp + someone else wolf pack. I've nothing to back that up but I can imagine the logic vs kamikaze battles would be intense.

Interesting how she defends Legate's post, then proceeds to list him in a possible wolfpack.

Originally Posted by Mac

He latched on to the "if the wolves thought Lottie was the seer then why is Mac still alive" thing that Nog brought up (though Nilp says he thought of it on his own), and this was his reason for suspecting me (while Nog didn't take it that far). I thought the reason was bad and suspected him in turn.
Not the most solid of suspicions, and reflecting I might have gotten carried away by being annoyed by it, but it was not one bit random and I don't know how you got that impression.

Pre-emptive, obviously. It basically seemed like Nog was causing a lot of controversy and suddenly, there came votes for unexpectedly (at least in my perspective back there) Kath and it looked like it was a stone starting to roll. That's it.

Hmm... this exchange makes me feel a little better about Mac.

Originally Posted by Mac

I feel like I'm confusing myself right now and don't have a clear picture. I'm seeing fangs all over Legate's last post and I can't even begin to wrap my mind around Nilp right now.

Again, feeling better about him here.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I agree with whoever said Rikae and Legate probably didn't expect their votes to take off like that - unless Form and Kath are BOTH wolves, introducing a last minute wagon for an innocent who'd been widely suspected isn't the most likely wolf move.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Greenie and Legate - I find myself agreeing with both of them a lot, which makes me inclined to trust them, even though I'm not sure that's smart. I don't know what to think of either of their relation to Kath - both Greenie's strong suspicion that I don't necessarily agree with and Legate's defensiveness of Kath stand out to me as midlly weird.

Originally Posted by Mac

No idea:
Legate - still meaning to get to him

After his previous opinion on Legate, he seems to slightly retreat here. If I were using a Rikae point system, this would be a -1.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Greenie had points about Lommy and Legate that I liked

Originally Posted by Rikae

Legate - Kept Form in the running Day 1 with his 3rd vote. Reasoning and vote look innocentish.

I have doubts that an evil Rikae would call their packmate innocentish.

Originally Posted by Lommy

As for Rikae-Legate-Form-Kath - that would be a pretty epic wolf pack hiding almost in plain sight. Not impossible, but I'm a bit hesitant to jump on a big conclusion like that. I haven't followed all their interactions well enough but it doesn't sound implausible.

Originally Posted by Mac

I can definitely live with a Form lynching, though I'd prefer Pitch. I'd rather have Legate stay alive for at least one more day.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I would prefer to vote Form toDay. Not too covinced about Legate's guilt.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I think this is a good point. I mentioned before that I like the content of Legate's posts (regarding suspicions and such), however he also seems quieter and more reserved than normal. I still don't think the wolves killed Lottie suspecting she was a seer who dreamed of Legate because Hui seems like the more likely dream were she the seer. However, a wolf pack that includes Legate could've killed her for the latter reason even knowing that it could implicate Legate.

That is not enough reason for me to want to vote Legate toDay, but maybe I need to look at him toMorrow (again).

Originally Posted by Pitch

I keep wondering about the plausibility of a Rikae-Legate-Kath-Form pack. As for Rikae, I'm obviously biased right now, so I'd like to re-evaluate toMorrow. Kath has suddenly started to make possibly innocent sense toDay, I hope this continues. I'm really torn between Legate and Form, but my suspicion of Form is older and stronger.

Okay, Day 3 had even more pseudo-suspicion of Legate without it turning into anything. I think if he hadn't been trapped last Night, the suspicion would've legitimately turned into something (especially with the seer's death).

Based on this, I'm thinking maybe a Pitch/Sally/Kath pack or alternatively a Pitch/Mac/Kath pack. But I need to look at what these players have said about each other to get a bigger picture (if I have time tomorrow as it's late). For one, I'm not entirely positive how likely a Pitch/Kath combo actually is.

If there are NOT three wolves out of the four that I listed above, I would guess that the outlier is Lommy.

Anyway, Pitch and Sally are my biggest suspects right now.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Mac, I'm curious to know who you think Greenie dreamed of. Mainly because I thought Shasta seemed likely to be one of her dreams and if I'm right, that would make him innocent. However you list him as suspicious, so clearly you disagree.

Gonna try to keep this concise and I have to admit, I started this hoping I would not find Shasta to be innocent. Biased? Me? Nah.

All quotes by Greenie:


Day1

So far I like what I've seen of Shasta, Lommy, Rikae and Mac. Not alarmed about Lottie.

Night1 most likely one of these, with Lottie the most likely.


Day2

I'm glad to see more of Nilp and Mac toDay. I get a somewhat better feeling of Nilp now, and Mac worries me a little

Not me for Night1 or 2. Nilp for Night2 possible.

I’m notoriously bad at reading Rikae, and this could go either way

And not Rikae for Night1 or 2.

I felt good about Shasta yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too.

Doesn't necessarily sound like she dreamt of Shasta Night1 or 2 either.

She votes Kath in the end, but it feels like suspicion, not knowledge.


Day3

Her list helps a lot.
not dreamt of: Brinn, Form, me, Pitch, Sally, Lommy
possible wolf: Kath, Legate
possible innocent: Nilp, Rikae, Shasta

Again somewhat meta, but Kath's confusion about the BH rules is enough to give me vague second thoughts about her.

Doesn't sound like she dreamt of Kath.


Ergo:

Night1: probably Lottie, maybe Shasta
Night2: probably Nilp, maaybe Rikae?
Night3: Legate

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

First of all, that's it, that's my trap. I'm now just a confused Ordo. And I don't know if I just drew the Ranger away from protecting Greenie.

Second, the vote list:

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold. A plus after the name indicates the Medium.)

+2238: Kath – Form (Form – 1)
+2258: Greenie – Legate (Form – 1, Legate – 1)
+2302: Rikae – Form (Form – 2, Legate – 1)
+2310: Form+ – Legate (Form – 2, Legate – 3)
+2310: Sally – Form (Form – 3, Legate – 3)
+2317: Shasta – Form (Form – 4, Legate – 3)
+2322: Lommy - Form (Form – 5, Legate – 3)
+2324: Mac - Form (Form – 6, Legate – 3)
+2327: Legate - Form (Form – 7, Legate – 3)
+2329: Pitch - Form (Form – 8, Legate – 3)
+2329: Nilp - Form (Form – 9, Legate – 3)
+2330: Brinn - Form (Form – 10, Legate – 3)

My only comment is to note that 2317 to 2329 avalanche of votes. I had in my notes: 'Bet my chances of rolling Merlin this Saturday that at least two of those five are wolves. Also, when are we lynching Legate?'

Okay, so I got Legate (at the cost of our most important villager), but my nose tells me there's still at least one more baddie among Shasta, Lommy, Mac, and Pitch.

Now off to lunch and earn my paycheck for the day. Hope to be back posting in six or so hours.

PS. To the Dead thread, I'm endorsing Mac's list. And despite being on my list, this line:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.

makes me want to trust you. Please don't be a Wolf.

PPS. Dominos, rolling balls, and strings? Classic Rube-Goldberg, Boromod.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The Wolves have an option of picking who gets killed by my trap. Now, I can see some reason why the pack chose Legate (he's already under heavy suspicion), why not let the Nightmare Wolf start using their powers?

I think this means our Nightmare Wolf wasn't under much of a suspicion, and letting them die to my trap is giving away a baddie 'for free', so to speak.