Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Absolutely, and I agree with waiting and seeing. I think following Mac's plan (and not Mediumming anyone, to tell them we have no known wolf) is a plausible Plan C, but I think we can do better.

My Plan A would be to follow the Mac plan, but with a wolf as the target of the Medium's vote. So Nilp , Brinn , or maybe Mac - whichever votes for a likely wolf. The main issues here are a) they might not vote that way, and b) we'd be deliberately lying to the village.

Plan B would be to ignore the Mac plan entirely and just Medium someone voting for a probable wolf. This gives us the highest chance of affecting today's lynch, but would be wildly misinterpreted if the villagers buy into Mac's plan. We'd definitely want to avoid Mediumming Pitch, Sally, or Lommy, since those three would 'implicate' a known innocent.

hS

They'd better not hold off on voting until the last ten minutes, or we'll never be able to sort through all the ramifications in time.

[Loslote]

But yes, I agree with you, Huey - I'd lean towards even deliberately misleading them into thinking we know a wolf over holding our vote.

[Loslote]

If Pitch was a wolf, he would have known that Form was innocent, and I don't think he would have reacted so strongly to Rikae's Seer hinting. But if he was a cobbler, he would have shown up as an ordo, and wouldn't have had to worry about the Seer at all. I'm very confused about him right now.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie

But yes, I agree with you, Huey - I'd lean towards even deliberately misleading them into thinking we know a wolf over holding our vote.

I agree. Right now I still think Mac, Lommy and Kath are the likeliest candidates for our remaining wolves, though I could be very wrong too. But guys - if we wanted to nudge them towards having a look at Lommy, in Mac's list that would mean empowering Brinn again Trouble is, they'd probably just think we were trolling and not take us seriously. And anyway, a Macwolf might be a bigger problem at the moment than a Lommywolf, given how he's taking the reins now..

Second thing - I won't be around at deadline (it's 1AM here and I'm not good at staying up late) so if we need to react quickly to last-minute voting again I won't be much help. But if we do come up with a plan by around 2h before deadline, I can vote then and you guys can still change the plan afterwards if something comes up?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I agree. Right now I still think Mac, Lommy and Kath are the likeliest candidates for our remaining wolves, though I could be very wrong too. But guys - if we wanted to nudge them towards having a look at Lommy, in Mac's list that would mean empowering Brinn again Trouble is, they'd probably just think we were trolling and not take us seriously. And anyway, a Macwolf might be a bigger problem at the moment than a Lommywolf, given how he's taking the reins now..

Yes, I think Mac is a very big problem right now for the village. He seems to be very good at leading the innocents astray.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Second thing - I won't be around at deadline (it's 1AM here and I'm not good at staying up late) so if we need to react quickly to last-minute voting again I won't be much help. But if we do come up with a plan by around 2h before deadline, I can vote then and you guys can still change the plan afterwards if something comes up?

Yes, we can afford for two innocents to vote early and still be able to change our minds last minute. Probably a safe early vote if you have to vote before the Living start voting would be for Nilp, as that would implicate Mac.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yes, I think Mac is a very big problem right now for the village. He seems to be very good at leading the innocents astray.

Yes, we can afford for two innocents to vote early and still be able to change our minds last minute. Probably a safe early vote if you have to vote before the Living start voting would be for Nilp, as that would implicate Mac.

Sounds solid. Although another thought - if Mac is the cobbler he's a total genius.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

if Mac is the cobbler he's a total genius.

If Pitch is not the Cobbler it might actually be Mac.

Trying to enforce that voting-scheme would have been a genius idea from a cobbler.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Shasta

I think it's entirely possible we're too close to numbers being even to discount the use of the Medium vote as what it actually is - a vote.

Yesssss Shasta thank you.

I can't see Lommy's 'let's muddy the waters on what their votes mean' as anything but wolfish. For bonus points, her 'we think this is stupid' Medium is Pitch - who under Mac's scheme implicates a known innocent.

I think the wolves spotted the Seer-post ((after all, they know who Greenie would see as innocent or guilty!). That means they know Greenie had no known wolves before last Night, and they must suspect she dreamed of Legate. The Seer post hinted at Lommy as last Night's dream - and by Mac's plan, a Lommy wolf would be signalled by a vote for Brinn, which is the easiest to disregard as trolling.

Come to think of it, pointing the finger at Mac by empowering Nilp is also easy to dismiss - 'they were just supporting the person we all know is innocent!'. So it's only Kath who's in danger.

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Because we need to lynch a wolf toDay, not toMorrow. ToMorrow may be too late. If we mislynch toDay and the Ranger fails to foil the Night kill it'll be 3:1:3 toMorrow - in which case the Wolves could just come out and call on the cobbler's support to lynch anybody they like.
I'm getting really really suspicious of Mac right now.

And there's the issue right there. A "known wolf" toMorrow is too late. They NEED to lynch a wolf toDay. Mac and Kath keep insisting there's a known wolf to discover this way, but in the mean time, they're not helping anyone find the actual wolves on the Day it matters.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Pitch

If we mislynch toDay and the Ranger fails to foil the Night kill it'll be 3:1:3 toMorrow - in which case the Wolves could just come out and call on the cobbler's support to lynch anybody they like.

Uh-huh. And we can only help if all 3 innocents vote before all 4 evils.

I assume the Wolves will kill Nilp tonight, since it seems the Ranger protected him last Night. So it would be really nice if we could kill one of them today and not lose...

hS

[Loslote]

Really wishing we could just vote for someone instead of Mediumizing like last game. But that would be too easy...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sorry for not being with your sooner, I had a surprisingly busy day (but I spent part of it right after waking up by reading up on most of this thread - which was before everything else came tumbling down on me. But I must say, delightful read)!

I will try to do my best to make up for everything by accompanying you now, my dear, clueless friends.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another result that would make me disappear from the planet for a few lifetimes in shame would be seeing Legate here.

I am very glad you did not have to do that back then, Nog! Incidentally, first thing I wanted to do once I got here was to apologise for contributing to your lynch, except... except I realised if I speak strictly and only for myself, I was being perfectly genuine in my intent of lynching you, so... that would be hypocritical of me. But I could say that I would not have minded having you around longer and could have lynched someone else had there been better targets available. To pick one good example for all, in retrospect I would not mind hadGreenie been lynched already then

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I agree, Form. I'd like to vote that we have a Dead Thread every game, even if the Dead play no role. Just to chat.

Let me just absolutely second... third... tend (?!?) this. I think a DT should always exist, even if for only discussion, however I think it would be better that it should have some power (and obligation) so it motivates and gives the players a purpose, and isn't just empty talk.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I mean granted so far this is just dead villagers, but it is a uniting force you don't get as a "live" player. And just my luck these are the only games I'm immortal in and never die

Then we just gotta keep doing it every game, one Day, you are gonna die early...

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Some day I want to mod a game.

Well, once this is over...?

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

My guess is Legate is a Wolf. Greenie is the Seer. Greenie is dying tonight.

That was pretty impressive.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, once this is over...?

The rules say mods have to have seven games under their belt and I don't think I do. However, modding would be significantly easier than playing.

But if I do mod I think I'd make a rule that the living can't communicate with the dead.

[A Little Green]

Okay I just read Lommy's most recent post and I'll be astonished if she's innocent. Like, I know it's been a confusing game but this is nuts -

Originally Posted by Lommy

I read Brinn's analysis and I very much agree with the conclusions. It's fairly intriguing Rikae comes to less certain conclusions with the possible remarkable difference of downplaying Shasta's perceived innocence. This *could* point to Rikae being a wolf reluctant to give the village a known innocent, or to Brinn being a bold packmate of Shasta's.

I can't even.