TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Huinesoron]

Thinking about about Form's death - my first instinct was to say that even Wolf!Sally might not kill him as a suspected seer, because it would point the finger exclusively at her. I considered it more likely that he was a no-trail killing with a handy side-effect of implicating Sally.

But I've just remembered the Dead and the Ghost. The wolves know that the Seer's visions won't die with them - they can come back as a Ghost and attempt to convey them with no suspicion of lying. I think that tips the scales: they can't go "we'll kill him toMorrow Night when Sally looks less obvious as the reason", because that's another dream for the Seer that will come back to haunt them. I think they'd go for even a highly risky Seer-kill like Form's would have been for Sally.

Which means that if Sally isn't a wolf, then as Legate said a couple of posts back, none of the wolves felt they might have been scryed. I think that actually clears Morsul to an extent, because they could definitely have felt scryed yesterDay.

hS

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

But I've just remembered the Dead and the Ghost. The wolves know that the Seer's visions won't die with them - they can come back as a Ghost and attempt to convey them with no suspicion of lying. I think that tips the scales: they can't go "we'll kill him toMorrow Night when Sally looks less obvious as the reason", because that's another dream for the Seer that will come back to haunt them. I think they'd go for even a highly risky Seer-kill like Form's would have been for Sally.
hS

That’s an interesting thought I hadn’t really considered the implications of the ghost strategy, and how it affects the wolves’ aggression. This certainly could point in Sally’s direction. But if your follow up is correct(they didn’t feel they were found out) there’s two possibilities;

1. None of the votes are wolves, this is unlikely just based on probability but not impossible.
This would clear Me, Huin, Pitch, Sally, Lottie. I can’t believe that. That would leave five players Boro, Lommie, Legate, Kath, and Sorimon in this crazy unlikely scenario 3/5 of those players are the pack.

2. Far more likely, if they didn’t feel they were found out, it’s likely if they received vote(s) the reasoning behind those votes didn’t trouble them. This requires a must closer scrutiny of votes and reasoning.

Xed Boro

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

1. None of the votes are wolves, this is unlikely just based on probability but not impossible.
This would clear Me, Huin, Pitch, Sally, Lottie. I can’t believe that. That would leave five players Boro, Lommie, Legate, Kath, and Sorimon in this crazy unlikely scenario 3/5 of those players are the pack.

It's not quite that bad! Sally's voter was killed overNight, so they might have thought him the Seer. Pitch's voter was killed in the lynch, so they knew they weren't. That only leaves three of your "clears", and as you say:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

2. Far more likely, if they didn’t feel they were found out, it’s likely if they received vote(s) the reasoning behind those votes didn’t trouble them. This requires a must closer scrutiny of votes and reasoning.

I've already said I think you come out looking pretty good. Obviously I'm not unbiased about myself, but I think wolf!Lottie would (or could) have seen Boro's vote as standard Day 1 reasoning-based.

(And since I trimmed the end off a sentence in my last post: this "clear" of Morsul only applies if Sally is innocent!)

hS

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lottie

I would agree with this, but we don't have anyone who could qualify as a 'lurker' who I would be willing to vote. It's Soriman's first game, so it's expected that he'll be posting less often as he gets the hang of the game, Sally is usually quieter, especially on Day 1, I've really appreciated Kath's posts when she was here, and I think I'm next up for quantity of posts...

You want to vote for someone with only a few posts, but not Soriman because he is a newbie, not Kath because she's helpful, and not Sally... because she's Sally? I feel like Lottie is letting Sally off the hook a bit too easy here, which could be a wolf conveniently giving a fellow a pass on not particularly legit grounds. If either of Lottie or Sally turns out to be a wolf, I'd have a closer look at the other one.

Originally Posted by Lottie

My memory may be imperfect, but what I remember from playing with Huinwolf was feeling like we were on the same page, he's contributing great stuff, top of my innocent list, and then Legate caught something - a vibe or what, I don't remember - and we voted him out over a very short period of time. I am not getting that same vibe this game. Again, memory may be faulty - it's been a while - but toDay he feels more like the innocent Huin that I've played with before, who is always the first person stirring the pot and poking and prodding people. I'm not saying I trust him fully, just that I don't suspect him, and I think the people who are pushing that suspicion are pulling it a bit out of thin air. It's Day 1 - that's understandable - but you're acting like it's blatantly obvious that he's a wolf and it's bizarre that I'm not on board with that suspicion, when really, there's nothing more to this suspicion than there is to any other suspicion based on zero information. It's really easy to suspect Huin, and I don't know why you're so convinced of his wolfyness based on, from my perspective, not a ton to back it up.

I did not mean that it was weird that you consider(ed) Huin innocent-seeming or defended him, just that your rather strong language there caught my eye, as well as the fabricated seeming argument based on his performance in previous games. Something about the combo made me think "wolf protecting a fellow she doesn't want to see lynched on Day1".

Side note: based on these two minor points, I would be really tempted to jump into contemplating a Lottie-Sally-Huin pack, but I don't think I've ever made a 100% correct pack prediction on day2 so... But if turns out to be them, then I TOLD YOU SO, ALREADY ON DAY2.

Ok now that I got that off my chest, let's proceed...

Originally Posted by Pitch

Everybody hates seeing innocents lynched, but somebody will be lynched toDay, and if you don't vote you're just washing your hands. Wolves kill at Night, whether we lynch or not, and lynching is our only way of getting at them. So pick someone and remember, it's all just a game.

Can I have this on my tombstone? (Ok, maybe that's not a good thing to say during a ww game. ) But really, beautifully articulated. I should maybe steal it for my signature. This is exactly why I hate people suggesting - on Day1 or otherwise - not voting as an option. It's just stupid. That being said, RL problems or no, I'm not a fan of Sally's no-vote. If you're an innocent, you should vote. Even if you haven't had the time to properly read through everything. By abstaining from voting, you're giving the wolves' votes proportionately more weight.

Originally Posted by Boro

I will also trust my read on Lommy in my last post. It's weak, but every time I read her posts and get the image that she's arguing with herself, like Smeagol/Gollum it's a good sign. I mean it might not be good for her own sanity, but that reaction is hard for someone to fabricate.

Finally, someone who understands me and my struggles!

Originally Posted by Morsul

I’ve been consistent on Kath I think her early vote is convenient for a wolf.

Yeah but also the deadline is at midnight for her, so it's not a surprise if she chooses to vote early. Ergo, just "voting early" is not really a very strong grounds for suspecting her.