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07-01-2014, 09:12 AM | #521 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Encai
Day 2 – Gives Inzil a fourth vote when Mac has three, although due to cross-posting she would have thought it was Inzil's third to Mac's one and her own two. Iow, if there's anything behind it but suspecting Inzil, it would probably be self-preservation. Inzil -On Mac's “your side”, day 2 “You're lucky I missed that, as I could certainly have thought it voteworthy” Day 2 – his “I was the first” stuff. Defensive? Indeed. Leonine? Not so much. I still think a lion would have checked before making that statement. Post #304, Inzil gives Mac his second vote when he already has 2 himself (3 actually, but he crossed with Wyth's vote for him) and Encai has 2. I don't think a lion would do this, either. Lommy - Mac says of Lommy, day 1 “This would make me suspicious as well, for the same reasons as above. "The lovers are not as bad as I said before, but they're still very bad". The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold? “ The sort of wishy-washy “suspicion” a lion might use either to nudge suspicions toward an innocent while keeping his hands clean, or to distance himself from a fellow. However, it's worth noting that this is NOT the most suspicious thing about Lommy's statement: Mac is glossing over, and drawing attention away from, its hintishness. - Lommy on Day 2: “Evil!Mac and evil!Volo seem like options too, but I think they were both suspected more by someone else, and the phrasing is not especially seerish at least in this post. “ and in the same post “And what is this talk about wolves wanting to off the hunter?? *looks especially at Rikae* Whenever people suggest the wolves killed someone for any other reason other than seeming seerish, it smells of covering trails to me. The wolves need to get rid of the seer, first and foremost. There needs to be a good reason not to go for someone who looks seerish to them.” So, Gal wouldn't look seerish to Mac, but it is apparently inconceivable that no one looked seerish? I guess this is a point in Lommy's favor. I doubt a lion would be so locked onto the idea that Gal must have looked seerish for some reason. Nog - Reading Day 1, Nog is really quick to cast suspicion for flimsy reasons. Everything seems to be a possible wolf-slip in his eyes. - Day 2 - Nog is the one who pointed out that Gal's playing style was different and it would have made her look generally gifted, while also saying that she didn't seem to be a seer who dreamt of Mac. I agree with the latter point: others suspected Mac, so it wouldn't make sense for them to target her for that reason. I consider it likely the first reason is indeed the reason they went for Gal, but I only noticed it in retrospect, when Nog pointed it out. Perhaps Nog pointed it out to his fellows on the previous night as well? Also, kind of a meta point against Nog – he isn't suspecting me, or arguing with me. When he's innocent, he pretty much always thinks whatever I'm saying is flagrantly wrong and goes on a crusade against it. I can't imagine I'm suddenly talking sense in his eyes; more likely, he's evil. In particular, he picks up on a couple offhand/throwaway comments of mine and agrees with them in post #236. It gives a “buttering up” vibe. Gives Mac his 5th vote when Inzil already has 5. At this point Inzil would still be lynched – lion!Nog would be making himself look very nice in the event of a Mac lynch, but not necessarily lynching Mac. I don't believe for a minute he wouldn't do this. Nogwolf is notorious for throwing comrades under the bus. Once again I'm running out of time. At any rate, from what I've looked at so far ++Nogrod Is the clear winner. |
07-01-2014, 09:14 AM | #522 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Kitwaggon part I: Origins
So, other than basic suspicion based on the Skipwaggon the Day before, the first real post I found to suspect Kit is Nog's:
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Conclusion: Definitely something fishy. Just because so many people latched onto it already without checking (or at least pretending not to check) the context. If you're going to claim it's a slip, at least it should seem pretty convincing. But in this case, it only really looks like a slip without the context. And, I mean, a sentence that actually makes sense is always far more likely than one that doesn't and is also a slip (Sorry, started ranting there). Anyway, my point is that I don't think that everyone who latched onto it had the best intentions. Both Nog and Lommy were already suspecting Kit, so perhaps they could've overlooked it, being clouded by suspicion, but usually they're quite careful, so it seems unlikely that it's the case for both. And as was already proven by this point, pointing out a 'slip' (I'm not even confident that Mac's was one anyway, not that it matters now) is an easy way to spread a suspicion. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the three turned out to be a lion. One more thing to note: mention of the 'slip' disappears after Rikae and Kit explain it away, but Lommy and Nog are still much more keen to lynch her after it's discovery. This could go either way: either it helped inflame their suspicions, or they're determined to have her as a lynch candidate.
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07-01-2014, 09:17 AM | #523 | |
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Oh, and asking to clarify the winning-conditions was the most unhelpful thing I presume...
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EDIT: X'd with at least this page...
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07-01-2014, 09:44 AM | #524 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Oh. I see Rikae finally opened the game.
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Although I'm also kind of disappointed... I thought you would have made a better one. I could have done a better case against myself. Yes, I have been suspecting you Rikae on some gut-level for some time already but purposefully avoided a clash as I have kind of enjoyd the game without fire and brimstone thus far - and because I've had better candidates for suspicion anyway. So with you I have been kind of waiting if you make a move... and now it seems you took the gloves off... Hmm. There is an interesting football match starting in a moment and I'm going to watch it and have some dinner, but I'll be back for the last two hours. Let's see if there is still something in the "Mac-diaries" or other promising leads. If not, then let's lynch Rikae - or me. We can nicely afford even lynching me toDay with the numbers we have if you then lynch her the next Day.
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07-01-2014, 09:55 AM | #525 | |||
Mellifluous Maia
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That's all the time I have now - I won't be back before deadline, I'm afraid. |
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07-01-2014, 09:57 AM | #526 |
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Well, it looks like I probably won't have time to look at Kit suspicion yesterDay, and to be honest, that's probably for the best. She just seems to have been scapegoated and pinned with all sorts of small suspicions, and that doesn't really tell us much. What I will say about it though is that Nog brought up the slip again (even though it had already been explained) in #364, Zil entertains it in #365, and Greenie chimes in at #370 Lommy practically mentions as fact in #377.
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07-01-2014, 10:26 AM | #527 | ||
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In that case, then, I'll have to revise my list: If these people are evil, they have well and truly fooled me: Nog Eomer Sally I don't think these people are evil: Greenie Wythy D. Rikae Eonwe I wouldn't be surprised if these people were evil, but I could well be wrong: Zil Boro Pretty sure, at this point, that these people are evil: Lommy Encai I'd be willing to vote for any of the four people in the suspicious categories. If we lynch one of the top three, I'll be very put out.
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07-01-2014, 10:28 AM | #528 |
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Worry me
Lommy - The bad feeling I've had about her still hasn't left, plus there's the Kit stuff. Nog - Reasons mentioned before (mostly the Mac and Kit stuff) Worry me slightly less Zil- For reasons mentioned before, but down a level because I always end up suspecting him. Encai - There are numerous times when I've read something that doesn't sit right with me, but it's hard to pinpoint anything specific. Boro - Quiet. Too quiet. And then he jumps in to fight for Kit. Something about that seems off. Greenie - Seemed overly innocent at the beginning, then the Kit stuff. Might be trying to misguide. Rikae - Always scares me. And seems to find similar people suspicious, which, in a game with so much uncertainty, makes me wary. Don't worry me, which worries me Eomer - Has seemed pretty good so far Sally - No idea what she was up to yesterDay, but nothing seems particularly evil. She really hasn't said enough though. Lottie - Has been quite quiet. Nothing particularly incriminating. WyDry - Still have no idea Note: Order within categories is just according to the modlist. edit: x-ed with Lottie
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07-01-2014, 10:35 AM | #529 | ||
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07-01-2014, 10:48 AM | #530 |
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Most people yesterDay thought Lommy was at least a little fishy, though (the notable exception being Encai, who had her solidly in the middle). The village was roughly divided down the middle between outright suspecting her and thinking she was 'kind of fishy' but not wanting to commit to full-out suspicion yet. She needed something to be able to point to as a solid reason why she isn't a lion, and I think we saw it when she claimed that she would never have killed Gil if she were a lion. I think that was the reason for the kill - she wanted something that would point back so obviously to her that she could then say she wouldn't have risked it.
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07-01-2014, 11:00 AM | #531 | |
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Quick list then, while I'm rushing through my lunch. Guilty: Lommy Boro Leaning guilty: Rikae Not sure: Greenie Nog Lottie Encai Wyth Eomer Probably innocent: Dun (see my post yesterDay) Steve
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07-01-2014, 11:39 AM | #532 |
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Ok, I need to go now, so
++Lommy
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07-01-2014, 12:06 PM | #533 | |
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It worries me somewhat that Eönwë, who at first seemed eager to lump me in with Mac, then broadened his suspects to include Nog and Lommy, has now voted for the latter.
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07-01-2014, 12:36 PM | #534 |
Animated Skeleton
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Stuff has been coming up at work so I don't know if I'll get another chance to post/follow what is going on before the deadline. The argument for Lommy is compelling, but I'm going to stick with my first instinct.
++Inzil If I'm wrong about him I'm sure I'm going to look bad toMorrow, but oh well. |
07-01-2014, 12:57 PM | #535 | |
Shady She-Penguin
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Also, what on earth is with this sudden Nogrod-Rikae fight? This looks way too staged to my liking. Our two wolves deciding to go at each other so that one looks more innocent when the other one dies? Or the lovers pretending to have a fight?
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07-01-2014, 01:01 PM | #536 | |||||||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Okay.
I looks like Rikae actually started preparing her attack already a bit earlier with that oddish: Quote:
So that was bogus. The rest is as fabricated. Quote:
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I have been suspecting you Rikae on some gut-level for some time (Me) you've suspected me all along (Rikae) but purposefully avoided a clash as I have kind of enjoyd the game without fire and brimstone thus far - and because I've had better candidates for suspicion anyway (Me) it's a pity friendliness kept you from doing your best to hunt lions (I don't believe that for a second) (Rikae) Honestly Rikae? So all that is fabricated... I think the lions are getting desperate and they had to come forwards with some radical attempts. That said, I'm quite ready to vote Rikae toDay as I don't see why an innocent or normal gifted would go to such lengths making that flawed case against someone she doesn't know the role of? Uhh... the game was palyed overtime and this seems to have taken me longer I thought... Back reading now.
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07-01-2014, 01:08 PM | #537 |
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A Brief List
Innocentish
Greenie - the same as before Eomer - still the confusion Medium Boro - sounds more honest toDay, still baffled by his behaviour Sally - no idea, and not appreciating the emotional manipulation Wyth - no one should be under the radar this late but he kind of is Encai - I've suspected her all along but at the moment she's not really the one I'm the most worried about Lottie - I don't like the way she's been at my throat, but that might be knee-jerk Inzil - Eönwë's argumentation has made me re-evaluate my conclusion that he and Mac weren't fellows, but I'm still quite unsure What on earth Rikae and Nogrod - this staged fight has made me basically re-evaluate everything I thought about them, just what?? You don't even know how tempted I'm to act on Nogrod's suggestion we lynch one of him and Rikae. And obviously I'm not in favour of lynching me toDay, even though that would at least shed light on who's the one that has painted target on my back toDay. edit: xed with Nog
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07-01-2014, 01:11 PM | #538 | ||
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Quote:
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EDIT: xed with Nog and Lommy
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07-01-2014, 01:16 PM | #539 |
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Also, Lommy seems to be doing her best to egg on Nog and Rikae - trying to get the attention off of herself? Or just enjoying watching to non-lions at each others' throats? I don't like how she jumped on that at all.
++Lommy For her reaction to the Nog-Rikae spat, as well as the other reasons I've listed earlier.
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07-01-2014, 01:17 PM | #540 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Okay. I'm not too interested in using the last hour to this, but just pointing at it... Where on earth did you Eönwë get that idea that Kit's "slip" was somehow definitively and positively "explained"? A different interpretation to it was sure given but there was no way of telling which interpretation was correct until after Kit died so by hindsight.
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07-01-2014, 01:17 PM | #541 |
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I'm leaning towards Nogrod's side in this debate with Rikae.
Rikae, if I may ask, what's with your obsession with Enca? I've read all your posts from the last 2 days and I just don't see much of anything there; but you keep repeating you will vote for or suspect Enca for 'previously stated reasons'.
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07-01-2014, 01:19 PM | #542 |
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I'm still not happy about having to follow Steve, but it doesn't look like I'm going to have a lot of time. Places to go. And for what it's worth, I'm inclined to trust Lottie.
++Lommy x/d with Nog and Eomer
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07-01-2014, 01:19 PM | #543 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Here at last, sorry it took me so long, now trying to read at least something before deadline. Sorry, I'm a mess.
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07-01-2014, 01:20 PM | #544 | |
Shady She-Penguin
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Quote:
edit: xed with Greenie and Inzil
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07-01-2014, 01:26 PM | #545 |
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There does seem to be a concerted effort to lynch Lommy today, and it reminds me of yesterday against Kit. Going to check those votes now.
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07-01-2014, 01:26 PM | #546 |
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I just read through the thread, and here's my list as of now, with names in no particular order:
Probably Innocent - Boromir - I think he's being bizarre, but I don't think he'd act that way as a Lion - Greenie - hasn't raised any red flags for me - Wyth - he's never played before, but I know him rather well IRL and I think he's being genuine ???????? - Lottie - Eonwe - Eomer - Nogrod - Sally Suspicious - Rikae - I wasn't suspicious of her before, but this business with Nogrod makes me wonder if she's a Lion getting nervous - Lommy - the Gil-kill might be a clever bluff, designed to throw us off her trail, since she was in second place for a lynching yesterDay - Inzil - Eonwe raised some good points about him, and I was suspicious of him since the beginning Last edited by Encaitare; 07-01-2014 at 01:27 PM. Reason: Cross-posted since Lottie's #538 |
07-01-2014, 01:30 PM | #547 | |
Shady She-Penguin
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Quote:
I believe the tally is: Rikae -> Nogrod Eönwë -> Lommy Wyth -> Inzil Lottie -> Lommy 2 Inzil -> Lommy 3
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07-01-2014, 01:30 PM | #548 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I think Lommy's voting record is more suspicious than Gil's death. Otherwise I'm a bit puzzled about this wagon gathering behind her.
Rikae acted in a way I can't see any innocent acting - but have hard times seeing her act like that as a lion (or lover) either - unless they are in really dire straits and desperate. Does anyone remember what the kind of "general air of things" earlier toDay - like was there some clear favourites to be lynched? I'll check it myself but if someone has the feel of the Day already I'd like to hear that. I mean that might actually explain why Rikae is acting that panickedly - if her mate was clearly the top suspicion. So like at the time - or a bit before - when she thought I was leading the discussion to unhelpful directions... EDIT: X'd with Eomer onwards...
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07-01-2014, 01:33 PM | #549 |
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Inzil and Loslote both voted Skip on Day 1; they both voted Kit on Day 3; and now they've both voted Lommy today.
The one anomaly was Day 2, when Loslote voted for, interestingly, Inzil. Inzil voted for Mac, who of course was lynched. Inzil was the second most likely to be lynched. I am not sure what to take from this.
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07-01-2014, 01:39 PM | #550 |
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++Lommy
Clearly. No time for more. Beyond too busy. More toMorrow if I'm around.
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07-01-2014, 01:41 PM | #551 | |
Shady She-Penguin
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Quote:
++Inzil edit: xed with Sally...
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07-01-2014, 01:41 PM | #552 |
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Ok, I'm annoyed with myself because I'm obviously missing something that's staring me right in the face. Either Lommy is 'clearly' a baddie, or there's just open collusion going on.
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07-01-2014, 01:43 PM | #553 |
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Being my own apocalypse clock, I guess
Rikae -> Nogrod
Eönwë -> Lommy Wyth -> Inzil Lottie -> Lommy 2 Inzil -> Lommy 3 Sally -> Lommy 4 Lommy -> Inzil 2
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07-01-2014, 01:43 PM | #554 |
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Well, at least there's no 'throwing my vote away' this time, because I still suspect Inzil for various reasons and I also sort of suspect Lommy for certain Mac-interaction.
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07-01-2014, 01:45 PM | #555 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Interesting... this is actually Rikae's first post of the Day:
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07-01-2014, 01:48 PM | #556 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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So we have the makings of a LommyWagon and InzilWagon. How do I get this deja vu -feeling?
Well, I can't deny I have suspected them both during the game, but I'd be actually rather leaning towards lynching Rikae at this point. Of course if no one else is up to it it would be a waste of a vote.
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07-01-2014, 01:50 PM | #557 |
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Nog, it's Lommy or Inzil. Where are you leaning?
Football's almost on...
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07-01-2014, 01:51 PM | #558 |
Bittersweet Symphony
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++Inzil
I'm still suspicious of Lommy, but her attitude toDay has been more exasperated than defensive. I have been suspicious of Inzil from Day 1, and Eomer's post #549 makes me wonder what his voting record means. Essentially, I want to know Inzil's role more badly than Lommy's at the moment. |
07-01-2014, 01:53 PM | #559 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Quote:
I don't know. Inzil somehow feels like a scapegoat that was used, but what Eönwë fex. said toDay might point him being a lion... Lommy's votes were somehow eye-catching and I could truly see her as a lion - or even more as one of the lovers...
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07-01-2014, 01:54 PM | #560 |
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I want to know both their roles. Alas! no double-lynches!
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