Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

Ahoy there, me hearties!

I am feeling most optimistic, you know, after the death of Rune. It's obviously not good that we lost Fin, but that was not unexpected. Not that it means much to the rest of you, but I expected the Wolves to leave Taliesin around, what with his supicions of me 'n all, so I was fully expecting the absence of either Fin or Caran this morning. Indeed, I must raise a metaphorical arched eyebrow at Glirdan's (feigned?) surprise over this turn of events. It was always going to be one of three people that we lost last Night.

"But why the optimism, Rear-Admiral?" I hear you cry. Well, two reasons in particular.

First, the innocents are the majority in a three-way fight. Effectively, there are seven innocents against two teams of two, with all to play for. At least one, and possibly both, of the known non-Wolves are on the innocents' side. And the rest of us may not know who each other are, but numbers remain on our side for now and, if we keep our wits about us, we may even be able to pull together in a fashion.

Secondly, the death of a Wolf always provides top quality evidence. However diligently that Wolf, and his fiendish comrades, may have tried to hide their tracks, there will always be clues. We now have a wealth of evidence to sift through. I suggest that we set to it. In particular, we should be looking at:

- The cumulative voting patterns over the four Days so far.
- In particular, the way the votes went yesterDay, given the (happily fruitful) prospect of Rune's lynching throughout much of the Day.
- The manner in which suspicion against Rune gathered yesterDay.
- What Rune has said about his fellow passengers over the four Days.
- What Rune's fellow passengers said about him over the four Days.
- Possible other connections between prospective Wolves and prospective Lovers.
- The possible effect of the Lovers' presence on Wolvish behaviour, both retrospectively and prospectively.

We should also, of course, continue carefully to consider what each of us says as the Day progresses.

Since I could be relatively reassured that I would survive the Night, I took the opportunity to do a fair bit of analysis along the above lines overNight. I'll try to post as much of it as I can toDay*, since I anticipate that I will not be around too much on the morrow*. I have no definite conclusions at this stage, and I am really aiming just to post the evidence, pose a few questions on the basis of it and perhaps put forward a few tentative theories.

I am really rather confident that we will catch another Wolf toDay, you know. Wouldn't it be interesting if we were to catch one of the two remaining Loveless Wolves, setting up the delicious prospect of two remaining Wolves who each know that the other cannot be trusted?

Oh well, best get on. Back soon.

Toodle pip!

Edit: * For clarity, I mean that I will try to post as much of the analysis RL tonight as I will not be around much RL tomorrow.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here's the first part of my overNight workings. Voting record from Day 1, considered in light of what we know now. Known innocents are in italics (with surviving known non-Wolves also underlined). Wolf is in bold.

1. Morm ->Glirdan (Glirdan-1)
2. Lhuna ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-1)
3. Rune ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
4. Glirdan ->Kath (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1)
5. Nilp ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
6. TGWBS ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
7. Durelin ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
8. Diamond ->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
9. Anguirel ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3)
10. Lalaith ->Form (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1)
11. Caranlondien ->Jenny (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1, Jenny-1)
12. Firefoot ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
13. SpM ->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
14. Holby ->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
15. Jenny ->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2)
16. Formendacil ->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-1)
17. Findeasea ->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2)
18. Gurthang ->Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
19. Eomer ->Glirdan (Glirdan-2, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
20. Taliesin ->Eomer (Glirdan-2, Eomer-5, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)

No vote: Kath

A few points worth noting, I think. First, as is often the case on Day 1s (whenever my line is present, at least), most of the votes went to innocents. The votees from Day 1 who remain unknown are: Glirdan (2 votes), Kath (1 vote) and Lalaith (2 votes). If we tentatively assume that at least one vote on Day 1 went to a Wolf (and I think it likely), then one of these is a Wolf. Then again, I'm not sure how far this gets us as, with 9 unknowns and 3 Wolves, one of these is likely to be a Wolf on the law of averages.

More pertinently, of those in the Eomer bandwaggon, one was a Wolf and only one, TGWBS, remains unknown. Would two Wolves have voted in the Eomer bandwaggon? I tend to think not, which reinforces my feeling that TGWBS is likely to be innocent.

Of those in the Nilp bandwaggon, three remain unknown: Durelin, Anguirel and Firefoot. Sticking by my theory that at least one Wolf voted in the Nilp bandwaggon, then at least one of these is a Wolf.

I think that the two remaining Wolves would probably have placed their votes elsewhere. Of the "other" voters, Glirdan, Lalaith, SpM, Gurthang and (non-voter) Kath remain unknown. I think two of these people (excluding myself, for my purposes, obviously) are Wolves.

Only one possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote - Glirdan's vote for Kath. I think it unlikely that a Wolf would have voted for another Wolf on Day 1, if for no other reason than it would most likely arouse their fellow Wolves' suspicions that they might be the traitor among them. If that's right, then either Glirdan or Kath is a Wolf, but not both. Glirdan's vote might be described as a safe vote, given that Kath was not under much suspicion. As for Kath's non-vote, well some of you have already considered whether a Wolf would be likely not to vote. Personally, I don't see why not.

Other than that, the only vote that strikes me as particularly Wolfish is that of Gurthang, a safe, throwaway vote for Diamond when Nilp was almost done for and the only either possible lynchee was Eomer, although that is a point which has been raised previously.

Day 2 voting record analysis coming up ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

If I had voted for Saucepan instead of Rune, our dear Rear Admiral would have been killed.

Indeed. Churlish though it may seem, given that you saved my life, I have something to say about that. But all in good time.

[The Saucepan Man]

Same format.

1. Morm -> Anguirel (Ang-1)
2. Findesea -> Lalaith (Ang-1, Lalaith-1)
3. Lhuna -> Firefoot (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1)
4. Lalaith -> Formendacil (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1)
5. Rune -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-1)
6. SpM -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holbytlass-2)
7. Kath -> Jenny (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Formendacil-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1)
8. Glirdan -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-1)
9. Anguirel -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2)
10. Caran -> Firefoot (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-1, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2)
11. Jenny -> Formendacil (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-2)
12. Taliesin -> Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-2, Jenny-1, Lhuna-3)
13. Durelin -> Holbytlass (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-3)
14. Holbytlass - Lhuna (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4)
15. Firefoot -> Lalaith (Ang-1, Lalaith-2, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4)
16. Gurthang -> morm (Ang-1, Lalaith-2, Firefoot-2, Form-2, Holby-3, Jenny-1, Lhuna-4, morm-1)

Did not vote: Formendacil, TGWBS, Diamond

Again, the majority of the votes were for innocents. The unknows who received votes were: Anguirel (1 vote), Lalaith (2 votes) and Firefoot (2 votes). Again, it's likely that there's a Wolf there, by the law of averages if nothing else.

The main bandwaggon of Day 2 was the Lhuna Express. Of the Lhuna-voters, Anguirel and Glirdan remain unknown. The voting on Day 2 was quite different in its manner from Day 1. There were no clear contenders for lynching, at least not until relatively late on. So I am not so certain that there's a Wolf among the Lhuna bandwaggon. They might well have sought to distance themselves from it. If there is a Wolf there, I tend to think Glirdan the more likely one. As I recall, it rather came out of the blue, Lhuna having featured fairly low on his earlier suspect list based on those who voted for Eomer. I cannot now recall, however, the circumtances of Ang's vote.

The secondary bandwaggon was that for Holbytlass, and there we find our known Wolf, Rune. The other two Holby-voters, Durelin and myself remain unknowns. It is, however, a well known fact that Wolves spread their votes, so it follows that the two of us are innocent. OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved ).

Again, only one possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote: Firefoot's vote for Lalaith. Based on the same reasoning as that for Day 1, I think it unlikely that any Wolf would have voted for another on Day 2. There was no need to. And Firefoot's vote for Lalaith, taking her to 2 votes with four potential votes still in the offing, looks far too risky to me in the circumstances to be a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. I am fairly sure, therefore, that, if Lalaith is a Wolf, the Firefoot is not, and vice versa.

Gurthang's vote again stands out as a possible Wolfish vote. With three non-voters, the one vote for morm (cast, I believe, shortly before the deadline) was never going to kill him. Again, a safe, throwaway vote.

As with Kath, TGWBS's non-vote does not exempt him from suspicion, even though his two fellow non-voters were innocent.

Day 3 to follow ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Caran

I can't help but wonder if he was an intentional sacrifice.

I am almost certain that it was, or at least one that became pragmatic during the Day. There was at least one Wolf voting for Rune yesterDay, possibly more, I am sure of it. But again, all in good time.

[The Saucepan Man]

Same routine.

1. Diamond -> SpM (SpM-1)
2. Rune -> TGWBS (SpM-1, TGWBS-1)
3. Morm -> Firefoot (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1)
4. Firefoot -> Durelin (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1)
5. Taliesin -> Glirdan (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1)
6. Durelin -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1)
7. SpM -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1)
8. Glirdan-> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1, morm-1)
9. TGWBS -> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1, morm-2)
10. Caran -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-2, morm-2)
11. Holby -> Durelin (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-2, morm-2)
12. Lalaith -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2)
13. Anguirel -> Kath (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2, Kath-1)
14. Kath -> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-3, Kath-1)
15. Gurthang -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1)
16. Findesea -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-3, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1)

Now things get interesting, as Rune begins to attract some votes.

But I will first turn to the morm bandwaggon, comprised as it was of 3 of those who remain unknown: Glirdan, TGWBS and Kath. I somehow doubt that the Wolves could have resisted the opportunity to get morm in the frame, even though there was never very much in the way of evidence against him as far as I can see. I am therefore pretty sure that one (but probably only one) of the morm voters is a Wolf. Based upon my feeling that TGWBS is likely innocent, that points to either Glirdan or Kath.

There was also a Holby bandwaggon, comprising myself and Gurthang (plus an innocent Caran). Hmm, if I were to conclude that a Wolf was likely to have joined this bandwaggon (and I'm not entirely sure on that) then, as far as I am concered, that can only point to Gurthang. His vote is an interesting one as it bucked the trend of the previous Days, being as it was for an innocent who was in severe danger of being lynched. I believe that this followed comments about his previous votes having been safe, so (as I think I speculated yesterDay) was he trying to disguide his Wolfish behaviour? Or is that too obvious?

Rune voted early for TGWBS. I think that the Wolves would probably still have been avoiding Wolf-on-Wolf votes at this stage and this would, in any event, have been a reckless Wolf-on-Wolf vote as I believe that there was a fair bit of muttering about TGWBS at the time Rune voted. I commented at the time that I thought the Wolves might have marked out TGWBS as a potential lynch victim for Day 3. Rune's Day 3 vote therefore puts TGWBS in a rather good light, I think.

The same might also be said of Lalaith's vote for Rune. Why would one Wolf put another Wolf on 2 votes, to bring him level with three other cadidates? The only credible possibility, to my mind, is that she is the Lover Wolf and was trying to kill him, but I think that very unlikely as it would be far too risky, or that she is a Loveless Wolf and suspected him as the Lover Wolf. On balance, though, I still think it unlikely that a Wolf voted for a fellow Wolf on Day 3 and Lalaith's vote for Rune therefore speaks in her favour as far as I am concerned.

One other possibility occurs to me. Perhaps Lalaith is the innocent Lover, knew Rune was a Wolf and was trying to take him out. Possible, but it would have been a risky move for her, as it risked exposing her to the Loveless Wolves.

Other possible Wolf-on-Wolf votes: Anguirel for Kath and Firefoot for Durelin. Neither of these seems likely to me, but it's possible that one of them was.

Relishing the prospect of a Day 4 analysis ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Format as before.

1. Diamond -> SpM (SpM-1)
2. Ang -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-1)
3. Caran -> Lalaith (SpM-1, Rune-1, Lalaith-1)
4. Durelin -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-2, Lalaith-1)
5. SpM -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1)
6. Kath -> Glirdan (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1)
7. TGWBS -> Gurthang (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-1)
8. Lalaith -> Gurthang (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
9. Rune -> SpM (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
10. Glirdan -> SpM (SpM-3, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
11. Firefoot -> Rune (SpM-3, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
12. Taliesin -> SpM (SpM-4, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
13. Gurthang -> Rune (SpM-4, Rune-5, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
14. Findesea -> Rune (SpM-4, Rune-6, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)

Two main bandwaggons - Rune and SpM.

I am pretty much convinced that at least one Wolf, quite possibly two, voted for Rune yesterDay, because I think it distinctly possible that Caran's speculation that Rune was put up as a sacrificial victim to make his fellow Wolves look good is spot on. If not, then his sacrifice certainly became pragmatic to them as the Day progressed. I am going to look at the way that suspicion built up around Rune as the Day progressed in a moment (it's important because one of the main reasons that Rune became such a prime lynching candidate was the spat with Gurthang over his vote for Eomer contrasted with his reasoning for being reluctant to vote for me), but for now I am just looking at the votes.

I have to acknowledge that my vote for Rune looks rather Wolfish, particularly as a great deal of suspicion was being thrown his way, and he already had 2 votes, at the time I voted. All I can say on this is that I am not a Wolf and my vote for Rune was not a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. It's up to you whether you believe that.

The other Rune voters who remain unknowns were Anguirel, Durelin, Firefoot and Gurthang. Much suspicion had been expressed of Rune already when all of these were cast, moreso the later ones. However, I think it likely that a Wolf would have been looking to put their vote for Rune in at a fairly decisive moment. To my mind, the votes of Firefoot and Gurthang look the most Wolfish. By the stage that they both voted, it was pretty clear that it was going to be between me and Rune, with Gurthang a possible contender at the time Firefoot voted. This only really helps me, but I know that my death would have proven me innocent. So, if Firefoot and/or Gurthang is a Wolf, they had the choice between being caught in the badwaggon of one who would be proven innocent (which would look bad) or sacrificing one of their own (which would look good). The Wolves could afford to lose one of their number. Perhaps two of them even thought Rune the Wolf Lover (although not if he had volunteered to be the sacrifical Wolf the Night before).

Indeed, if Gurthang was a Wolf, he found himself in the rather enviable (for a Wolf) position of being able to save me and take part of the credit for killing a Wolf. That would look doubly good if were to die at some point. And I rather agree with Lalaith that his self-serving post suggesting himself as a possible sacrifice to save me looks suspicious. Other than me, only the Wolves know that I am innocent and that this comment might therefore put him in a good light in the long-term. He has sought to explain it by saying that he was attracting more suspicion than me. YesterDay's voting (4 votes for me, 2 votes for Gurthang) hardly bears that out.

On balance, I think that two Wolves probably voted for Rune, and my tentative conclusion is that those Wolves were probably Gurthang and Firefoot, although I do not dismiss the possibility that Anguirel started the ball rolling with a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Durelin had been suspecting Rune from Day 3 (and voted for him on Day 3 too). So, unless there was a long term plan to sacrifice him (ie going back further than Night 4), she was being consistent. I also remain generally comfortable about Durelin for other the other reasons I have previously mentioned, so I am not too concerned about her vote.

The thing that troubles me about definately labelling Gurthang a Wolf is that, looking back at the way the case against Rune gathered during the Day, it is clear that he (or, more accurately, his spat with Rune) was the main force behind those suspicions. And the other two main instigators of them were Anguirel and Firefoot, my other two possible Rune-voting Wolves. If one or two of these three are Wolves, this would point towards the Rune sacrifice having been pre-arranged. But it gives me some cause for doubt.

On to some of the other votes.

Of those in the SpM bandwaggon, one was a Wolf, one was an innocent, one is a known non-Wolf and one, Glirdan, remains unknown. Glirdan's vote followed Rune's vote for me, although Glirdan had expressed strong suspicions of me from fairly early on in the Day. Nevertheless, I think it unlikely that there was more than one Wolf voting for me, so this somewaht eases my suspicions of Glirdan.

Rune's vote for me alas does not go very far towards clearing me, as it would benefit two Wolves to vote for each other in circumstances where the two of them were the main lynch candidates. With no double lynchings, one would die leaving the other in a position to take some of the credit.

Given how (to my mind at least) there seems to be much pointing towards Gurthang being a Wolf, the fact that TGWBS and Lalaith both voted for him gives me further cause to feel comfortable about the two of them. If Gurthang is a Wolf, and there was a plan (whether prearranged or ad hoc) to sacrifice Rune, it is highly unlikely that any Wolves would have cast a Wolf-on-Wolf vote for another of their number. Also, Rune had been attacking TGWBS fairly strongly on Day 3 and this also speaks in Guy's favour.

The other vote worthy of mention is Kath's vote for Glirdan. In my Day 1 analysis I noted that Glirdan's Day 1 vote for Kath made it unlikely that both were Wolves together. That is even more the case with Kath's vote here. Given that, as I recall, Glirdan was never a serious contender to be lycnhed yesterDay, this might be viewed as a safe vote. It was quite early, but Rune had already taken quite a lead in the lynching stakes.

[Gurthang]

Well, here's what I could scrounge together in the 25 minutes I had.

- - - - - - - - - - - - Day 1 - - - - - Day 2 - - - - - Day 3 - - - - - Day 4

Durelin . . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . .Holby . . . . . . . Rune . . . . . . . Rune
Caranlondien . . . . .Jenny. . . . . . .Firefoot . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . Lalaith
Kath . . . . . . . . . . (None) . . . . . . Jenny . . . . . . .morm . . . . . . Glirdan

Lalaith . . . . . . . . . Form . . . . . . . Form . . . . . . . .Rune . . . . . .Gurthang
Firefoot . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . . Lalaith . . . . . . Durelin . . . . . . Rune
Gurthang . . . . . . .Diamond . . . . . morm . . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . . Rune

Taliesin . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . Glirdan . . . . . .Saucey
Saucepan Man . . . Holby . . . . . . . Holby. . . . . . . .Holby . . . . . . . Rune
Anguirel . . . . . . . . Nilp . . . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . Kath . . . . . . . Rune

Glirdan . . . . . . . . . Kath . . . . . . . Lhuna . . . . . . . morm . . . . . . Saucey
TGWBS . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . (none) . . . . . . . morm . . . . . . Gurthang
Rune . . . . . . . . . . Eomer . . . . . . Holby . . . . . . . TGWBS . . . . . .Saucey

Sadly, I again have to leave. But now that I have constructed a table, you can all use it and maybe I'll get back and have the chance. Oh, and before you say it Lalaith, let me: "He's just trying to look helpful to throw off suspicion." 'Forgive me, but I have pretty much resigned myself to the gallows.'*

I think it's strange how all the pieces are falling into place and pointing straight at me. Although, as bad as this game has gone for me, it really shouldn't surprise me.


*Play on a PotC quote.