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Old 04-17-2012, 05:26 PM   #161
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Ok, I'm back. I might not be totally coherent because of mock exams and tiredness, but these are my current thoughts.

For now, I'm accepting Rikae's reveal. I mean, I was getting non-ordo vibes from her from the start, and now at least that's certain (though the same goes for all of you). Yes, I am the sole innocent left here. You can disbelieve me if you want- I mean, I'd rather you killed me than any of the three gifteds. And now we're in a position where the hunter's life is arguably just as, if not more valuable than that of our seer, which is quite strange. And if she's not the real seer, then the real seer should definitely reveal now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
If you choose to believe me, we give one the boot now, and (unless that one should out of sheer cussedness decide to be the ranger, or I have through some bizarre circumstance been protected twice already), I can dream again next hour and find the final dirty rotten party pooper in our midst.
Hopefully, if we don't hit the hunter in the Day. Though on the other hand, if we cause a tie and have no lynches, while we definitely get another Day, we also know the identity of one less person, meaning that either you get lucky and find the committee member, or we have to choose between two.

edit: x-ed with Mac's first.
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Old 04-17-2012, 05:41 PM   #162
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
In which case, Steve is the only person I'd really consider lynching today - Shasta could be a committee member, but since we haven't seen anything from him yet whereas we've seen several suspicious things from Steve (the vote for me Day 1 and his suspicion of Nog, which amount to "oh, well, yes, he is suspicious, funny you pointed that out...but I was going to go for him all along"). Plus, I would like to give Shasta at least one Day to play.
Pretty funny that you'd say that when that's exactly what you did. I'd actually already said that I found him most suspicious before any of the votes.
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Old 04-17-2012, 05:53 PM   #163
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Ok, thinking about it, it seems unlikely that Lottie is evil.

Option 1- Seer-Rikae and non-wolf-Lottie:
Well, that's exactly what it they're saying on the thread.

Option 2- Seer-Rikae and Wolf-Lottie
Wouldn't happen. Much too risky.

Option 3- Wolf-Rikae and non-wolf-Lottie
Could happen

Option 4- Fake-revealing gifted Rikae:
Unlikely because of the high chance of guessing wrong, and if that is the case, not only negating the purpose of a fake-revealing innocent, but also narrowing down possible seer candidates.

So unless Rikae is a fake-revealing gifted, Lottie is not a wolf.
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Old 04-17-2012, 05:54 PM   #164
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Anyway, it's later here than I was expecting- I hope you all judge well while I'm gone.
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Old 04-18-2012, 12:39 AM   #165
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Well, it seems to have been a while since the last post, and since there's no real reason to disbelieve Rikae, I guess that means I just have to look at Mac and Eonwe. Easy enough.
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Old 04-18-2012, 10:43 AM   #166
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Well, I really would like to hear a bit more from Shasta, Mac and Steve (gone for the hour?) - don't any of you have anything to say that might influence our decision?
I know I've made it sound as though we had already won, but according to my calculations the wrong choice now will mean that two hours from now Lottie will have a 50% chance of voting wrongly losing the game. As interesting as such an hour might be, I'd rather vote as well as possible now, which means I'd rather hear more from the three gentlemen mentioned above...
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Old 04-18-2012, 11:17 AM   #167
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Firstly, since everyone's posted and no-one's refuted her claim, I'm willing to believe that Rikae is actually our seer, since at this point in the game it would be foolish not to counter-reveal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
I know I've made it sound as though we had already won, but according to my calculations the wrong choice now will mean that two hours from now Lottie will have a 50% chance of voting wrongly losing the game.
So now you're giving away her role? That's just added a whole new level of complication (more clarity, but it's changed the game).

I'll let my subconscious mull over it while I look at Mac.
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Old 04-18-2012, 12:44 PM   #168
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Nope, I was wrong, there's another possible outcome.

Still, if we lynch a gifted today we've squandered our advantage,

Quote:
Originally Posted by Enw
Yes, I am the sole innocent left here.
Is that your final answer?
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Old 04-18-2012, 01:03 PM   #169
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Ok, I had to go, but I'm back and have almost finished a Mac-post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Is that your final answer?
Yes. If you think it's less risky to kill me, go ahead. At least then you'll have all the gifteds.
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Old 04-18-2012, 01:08 PM   #170
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On which, note, I'd like to point out that Mac tried to inadvertently claim that role too (see here), which is one reason that I really suspect him (more on this in my next post).
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Old 04-18-2012, 01:43 PM   #171
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Since Shasta's posted so little, there's absolutely no way to tell whether or not he's a wolf. I'll ignore my meta-reasoning sense, which would suggest that he wouldn't accept such a hollow victory anway, and instead focus on Mac, which at least can be done (though his post count isn't very, at least he's said something).

Good stuff

This post seems pretty reasonable:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
It seems like people think of the messages mostly as a means to convey something to somebody else. Don't forget that your message prompts somebody to write a message back. If you send something to somebody you're not sure about, that's a good way to learn (even if they don't reply).

I don't think the information offered in a message is worth much. A reveal might be fake, and any opinions given are probably already available in the thread anyway, or have to be taken with a bucketful of salt. Like Greenie mentioned, as a wolf, I would be nervous to write a message: the risk of giving something away (even if it's just a bad vibe) is not necessarily worth the opportunity to sow some deceit.
And this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
I know it's not in the intended spirit of this game, but I would advise against too much analysis etc. during the night phase. It really only helps the wolves to sort out their own kill if they know who the inn thinks is innocent and who not. Usually they have some guesswork to do regarding the village's upcoming reaction to the lynch, which complicates their kill decision.
Of course, they're both points that aren't completely radical, so there is a large probability that someone else would come up with them, yet he definitely posts them firsts. Either this is proof of his innocence or he's going for the "I'll bring up useful points so they trust me." Still, some parts seem a bit too good to be intended evilly, but I suppose that it just depends on how sneaky a Macwolf is.


Other stuff

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Nog: I can't find a reason to suspect him, which makes me suspicious.
Wilwa - re-reading her posts, I think the vibe I'm getting is that of someone who's a wolf and tries rather hard to find something to talk about, so that she won't be suspected for not contributing. (Not exactly the best reason, is it?)
He's basically saying that there's no good reason to suspect either of the two known wolves, yet still says he suspects them. I don't know whether that's too obvious, but that whole suspecting-yet-defending attitude seems pretty wolvish to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
If Wilwa is innocent then clearly Mac and Inzil conspired to save their packmate Greenie.
Something about this joking comment doesn't sit right with me. It's almost as if he's specifically trying to show us that he doesn't know. Or, it could just be completely innocent. The second "not rusty" comment just furthers that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
I'm suspecting Inzil quite a bit right now. His vote looks incredibly fishy to me.
Could go either way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
My first impression of the McCaber-kill was that it made sense. Inzil and I look most innocent after the voting yesterHour(???) and were thus likely ranger picks. Unless they thought I was the seer (obviously not the case), it was not worth going after either of us. McCaber looked pretty innocent (I thought), so he was a good no-trace kill, since the only solid thing he leaves is some early strategy discussion and him thinking Inzil and me are innocent. He did also say that he liked Greenie least among the one-posters.
I'm trying hard not to look at this one biasedly, but I couldn't help thinking of him feeding us his Night-conversation.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Analyzing the voting, I noticed that Nog was in fact only the third person to mention Greenie negatively (Rikae and McCaber did so before). If he's a wolf who knew that Wilwa might be in moderate trouble, picking up on the mild suspicions of others, elaborating on them, and placing a preventative vote, would make sense to protect his fellow. Much more innocent-looking than waiting for a Wilwa-vote and then trying to put up a competing bandwaggon on the fly.

I do like Nog's point against me. It's wrong, but I still like it. If I was a wolf and Wilwa innocent, that's definitely something I could see myself doing. However, I would have been more strongly about telling people to make the tie possible (while hoping and being optimistic that it would fail). Doing wolf-on-wolf in such a situation is an entirely needless risk, though.
So first he suggests that Nog is evil, and then says something good about him? This seems to be a pattern throughout all his posts on Nog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
When I saw that Nogrod was lynched my first thought was "No! Why?"
If he is a wolf, this is pretty funny.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Killing Inzil was the best choice I suppose. He looked innocent, was vocal, and made sense. I don't think they thought he looked seer-ish.
Another kill-justification. Pretty neutral, considering that that I saw him as an innocent as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Sad thing is that Nogrod absorbed all attention yesterHour, and focused on Inzil (and lesser: me), so I don't think there's anything pointing towards the last wolf.
Very sneaky wording here. Again, suggesting his lack of wolfedness, as well as making it seem like Nog wouldn't try to pick out his fellow wolf, which is definitely something he'd do to mess with our minds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Wilwa-connection? He started out by an assumption (if I'm a wolf), then he starts treating it like a fact.
The fact that you were the first to vote for her connects you. I don't see the problem here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
While Eonwe lists Nogrod as most suspicious, he still seems most reluctant out of everybody to actually go after him.
Well that's completely not true. I said he was the one I was most likely to vote for and I did. I was just happy that a Nog-lynch had started while I was trying to articulate my suspicion of him.


Ok, now this thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
I don't see a reason to doubt Rikae's claim at the moment, which means:
Rikae: seer
Lottie: not-wolf
Mac: not-wolf (hoping you believe me there)
Shasta or Eonwe: wolf
Also, two out of Lottie, Shasta, and Eonwe are gifted.
If Shasta or Eonwe is the hunter, he should pick the other one to kill.
If one of them is the ranger and we lynch him, then... that would not be so good.

Barring any more reveals, I'm leaning towards voting Eonwe right now. Of course, we barely heard anything from Shasta so far.
Ok, so here, while he first just says "not-wolf", later he goes on to say that the other two gifted roles (not the seer- he believes Rikae) are among the rest of us. Which basically means that he's saying he's the innocent.

Now, I can't see any reason why at this point in the game, the Ranger would claim to be an ordinary innocent. We only have one Night left, and this means that the only choice the Ranger has is to protect the Seer. I mean, there will be no Day after toMorrow, so there is no need to worry. And so, since it's obvious that the Ranger will be protecting Rikae (which is basically our only chance to have a definite win toMorrow), there is no need for the Ranger to hide, since their power is then basically useless, as the wolf will almost certainly attack someone other than Rikae. And so, if the Ranger wouldn't hide, and I know that I am the innocent in the game, I'm forced to conclude that Mac is a wolf.
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Old 04-18-2012, 01:58 PM   #172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enw
Now, I can't see any reason why at this point in the game, the Ranger would claim to be an ordinary innocent.
Me neither.
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Old 04-18-2012, 02:58 PM   #173
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I had a lengthy defense post written, but then I came to Eonwe's last points and realized something.

First:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eonwe
Now, I can't see any reason why at this point in the game, the Ranger would claim to be an ordinary innocent.
A ranger save can give us two more nights:
5 players +lynch +safe=4 players next hour.
4 players +lynch +safe=3 players last hour.
Not likely, but could happen. If the ranger declares prematurely he's toast unless he gambles.
Add to this the more crucial fact that we might have a tie and therefore no lynch!

Second, all that ranger stuff makes me feel a lot better about Eonwe for a reason I don't want to tell yet. Which leads me to:

Why don't all gifteds just reveal? Since every role is left exactly one time, we will have exactly one revealed role twice (the real one and the falsely revealed wolf). With two guaranteed lynches left, we've got it. If we pool our votes well, no randomness or wolf vote can cause a tie.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:22 PM   #174
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Quote:
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Why don't all gifteds just reveal?
Ok, go on then. What are you?
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:37 PM   #175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Since every role is left exactly one time, we will have exactly one revealed role twice (the real one and the falsely revealed wolf). With two guaranteed lynches left, we've got it. If we pool our votes well, no randomness or wolf vote can cause a tie.
We already do (you and Steve as ordos). Discuss?
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:38 PM   #176
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Do you just know whether Lottie is innocent or not, or do you have her role?
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:41 PM   #177
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Don't trust me?
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:44 PM   #178
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16 minutes to DL, and only 3/5 people are here. Seriously?
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:45 PM   #179
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We don't need two days - that is, if we don't lynch a gifted now.

Should I vote for you, Mac?
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:50 PM   #180
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I don't think Rikae is bluffing, even though I know she likes to reveal falsely. She wouldn't have come up with the late dream initially if she wasn't the real seer.

Eonwe claims to be an ordo, and since Rikae doesn't say it isn't so, Lottie is not an ordo, but gifted.

Since I'm the ranger, Lottie must be the hunter, and Shasta and Eonwe are an ordo/wolf combo, one way or the other.


++Shasta

since Eonwe is actually around.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:51 PM   #181
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I don't like revealing.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:52 PM   #182
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and btw:

First Night: Inzil.
Second Night: missed .
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:53 PM   #183
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++Enw

Safest bet.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:53 PM   #184
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Rikae, what do you think?

edit: WHAT? REALLY?
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:54 PM   #185
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You claim not to be gifted, so you're the safest vote, Enw - sorry.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:54 PM   #186
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Ok, well since I know it's not me,

++Shasta
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:55 PM   #187
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Mac could well be a wolf (and I don't really care for the fact that he votes for Shasta now...) but if he is I'll know toHour.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:56 PM   #188
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Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Now, if this is wrong, as long as the Hunter picks Mac, we'll be fine.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:56 PM   #189
Macalaure
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Macalaure is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Macalaure is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Did Shasta and Lottie vote last hour, or will they be random?
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:57 PM   #190
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Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Shasta has not voted at all. I know that.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:58 PM   #191
Shastanis Althreduin
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Shastanis Althreduin is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Shastanis Althreduin is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Shastanis Althreduin is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Well, I happen to know that it's not me, either.

++Eonwe
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:58 PM   #192
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Rikae is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Rikae is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Rikae is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
If Enw was actually an ordo he should have voted for himself, as he knows it would guarantee a village win.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:59 PM   #193
Shastanis Althreduin
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Shastanis Althreduin is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Shastanis Althreduin is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Shastanis Althreduin is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Also, this DL is incredibly awkward. Wednesday is my busiest day.
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Shasta ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:00 PM   #194
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Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
If Enw was actually an ordo he should have voted for himself, as he knows it would guarantee a village win.
You know what? You're right. I was swayed by Mac, and, you know, my drive to stay alive, but you're completely right. I apologise, village.
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:01 PM   #195
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Rikae is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Rikae is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Rikae is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
And once again it comes down to someone not taking the game seriously, Lottie.

/facepalm
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:01 PM   #196
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Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
But guarantee is a strong word. If the hunter picks wrong and the wolf attacks the hunter, there will be no victory.
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:02 PM   #197
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I kind of feel like I just shouldn't have voted - I'd have died and the wolf would have been gone toMorrow. But I haven't done anything at all this game yet, so I kind of felt like I should do something. I hope you guys know I'm not just not participating because I don't feel like it. I really am quite busy, and the weather really was that bad.
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Shasta ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:03 PM   #198
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I kind of feel like I just shouldn't have voted - I'd have died and the wolf would have been gone toMorrow. But I haven't done anything at all this game yet, so I kind of felt like I should do something. I hope you guys know I'm not just not participating because I don't feel like it. I really am quite busy, and the weather really was that bad.
So then my suspicions are right. It was Mac. I can't believe I got sucked into that.
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:03 PM   #199
Macalaure
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Macalaure is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Macalaure is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
Tie.

If Rikae dreams of me we will be no smarter tomorrhour. Everybody has made a role claim (or can be deduced) except Shasta. His actual role is therefore most crucial and should be investigated.
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:03 PM   #200
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Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Enw is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Unless Rikae is the most cunning one of all.
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