Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

As well as that, Nessa was involved in that speculation earlier. I don't really get what was going on, but it could have been used as cover for a wolf.

Which speculation was this?

[Coppermirror]

Whoa, so they took Nerwen. I'm really surprised. They must have thought she was the Seer. I thought she was a possible Seer too, but evidently not. I was sure that they would go for me or for Galadriel55, unless they thought they could get the Seer.

I wrote up a post earlier. I'll just copy-paste it here with some alterations based on Nerwen's death, and then leave to watch some more of the Olympics. Er, I mean the village hop-scotch championships.

Post I wrote up overnight:

We got a Fenris! Take that, Saruman. (And I am very happy that my first WW vote ever was for a wolf.) My minimum goal for the game has been met: for us to nab a wolf in the first two days and thus not lose in such a short space of time. I don't even mind much if I get eaten, from this point on; I'm already satisfied with this game. Of course, I'll still be working to help us get rid of the other two wolves, but I'm going to relax and enjoy it more. We've now got a fighting chance of victory.

I'm glad that Pitchwife didn't show up yesterDAY, because it meant that Nessa decided to vote for him. I was planning to vote for Nessa anyway, but out of a last minute "I have to vote for somebody and don't want to get on the Kitanna bandwagon or waste my vote!" worry rather than any actual suspicion. But her voting for Pitchwife seemed suspicious and gave me a real reason to vote for her, and also made Galadriel55 suspicious enough to vote. It's great that she really was a wolf.

I'm going to assume from now on that Galadriel55 is innocent. It's possible that she's a wolf playing a very dangerous wolf-on-wolf game having realised that Nessa was looking suspicious and hoping there would be more Kitanna votes, but I don't think that would be a sensible course of action for her. Too risky. So in the absence of further information, Galadriel55 is the closest thing to an innocent in my eyes.

We've got a great amount of information to work on from the first DAY. Quite a few people now look suspicious to me.

Chart of suspicion

Wolf: Nessa (deceased)
Very suspicious: Inziladum
Suspicious: Eomer, Sally
Unknown: Shasta, Pitchwife, Kitanna
Almost certainly innocent: Galadriel55
Innocent: Coppermirror, Nerwen (deceased)

I'll be back later with reasons for the above, though after that I may change my mind and revise my list. And at some point I'll do an analysis of possible wolf packs.

Eomer, you said that you didn't like either of the two votes for Nessa. Why's that? Also, why did you vote for Sally?

[Inziladun]

On the face of it, I don't see anything thus far to have recommended Nerwen to the wolves. She didn't even vote.

To clarify my own vote, I decided that it was more unlikely Sally as a wolf would have latched onto Kit the way she did, than it was that Kit herself was evil. I wasn't all that enthused about voting Kit, I just didn't see any better options.

It's a worthless thing to say, I know, but if I'd seen Nessa's vote for Pitch of all people, that would have changed things for me.

[Coppermirror]

Just working through my thoughts on Nessa's vote and the wolves' choice to go for Nerwen here. I'll look at the content of the rest of the discussion on this properly once I'm done. (And I still need to write up some analysis...)

Why did Nessa vote for Pitchwife?
Nessa knows whether Pitchwife is innocent or not. She placed her vote at 12:43 PM GMT. Menel in the admin thread said at 12:54 PM GMT that he wouldn't mod-fire Pitchwife on the first day, so Nessa did not know at that time that there would be no mod-firing.

Why would she vote for a Pitchwolf?
At the time she probably thought he would be mod-fired. Then it could be as Pitchwife suggested, with her making a throwaway vote for a packmate in an attempt to look innocent.

Why would she vote for an innocent Pitchwife?
If Kitanna is innocent, Nessa was aware of this and might consider Pitchwife a safe vote. Most people didn't look very suspicious yesterDAY.

If Kitanna is a wolf, Nessa might have thought Pitchwife was a safe vote too, distancing herself from the lynching. She might also have wanted to take attention away from Kitanna. In any case, I think it's unlikely that she was a sacrificial wolf, because I don't think wolves benefit much from a bold strategy here.

Why was Nerwen killed?
She didn't vote. Ordinarily if I heard that in a tale I would see that as a sign that wolves were trying not to be traced, but I'm not sure about it now.

They must have had something to gain from it. If Galadriel and I are both innocent, and perhaps neither of us is Radagast, and Radagast has by now had two dreams...that's a maximum of two probably-innocents and three known innocents. 5 innocents in an 8 person village, along with 2 wolves and 1 other villager. To me it would make sense for the wolves to have got rid of me or Galadriel last NIGHT, to cut down the number of probably-innocents, unless they had a really good idea who Radagast might be. Perhaps they were being reckless and hoping for maximum gain? Their current odds may not be great.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Good questions both, I'd like to hear that too. But Cop, why did you think Nerwen a possible seer?

She mentioned Nessa a few times, but was fairly mild and reasonable about it. She also mentioned a few other people in a light sort of way, emphasising that she wasn't making accusations. It could have been a subtle way for Radagast to hide an actual suspicion on the first DAY.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay. Pretty "thin", indeed, but I suppose it's enough to justify Zil's "ill-defined feeling of unease" comment, given this is Day One and there hasn't been that much else to analyse yet. Sally's vote, though, looks pretty opportunistic and her explanation sounds like hedging.

–Also– as a general thing, I find myself looking askance at people (Zil, Nessa, Sally), who paint lack of gifteds or excess of wolves as a positive thing, mostly because there's then statistically less chance of hitting the former than the latter. While true, this quite misses the point. I mean, I suppose one should always look for the silver lining and all that– but it's also often in the lupine interest to play down the village's danger. (None of this is an accusation, mind you– still much too early for that.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

If Kitanna is a wolf, Nessa might have thought Pitchwife was a safe vote too, distancing herself from the lynching.

Um, why would she want to distance herself from the lynching of a wolf? Doesn't make sense to me (unlike the rest of your reasoning here).

Originally Posted by Coppermirror re Nerwen's death

She didn't vote. Ordinarily if I heard that in a tale I would see that as a sign that wolves were trying not to be traced, but I'm not sure about it now.

They must have had something to gain from it. If Galadriel and I are both innocent, and perhaps neither of us is Radagast, and Radagast has by now had two dreams...that's a maximum of two probably-innocents and three known innocents. 5 innocents in an 8 person village, along with 2 wolves and 1 other villager. To me it would make sense for the wolves to have got rid of me or Galadriel last NIGHT, to cut down the number of probably-innocents, unless they had a really good idea who Radagast might be. Perhaps they were being reckless and hoping for maximum gain? Their current odds may not be great.

She mentioned Nessa a few times, but was fairly mild and reasonable about it. She also mentioned a few other people in a light sort of way, emphasising that she wasn't making accusations. It could have been a subtle way for Radagast to hide an actual suspicion on the first DAY.

The thing is, everything she said against Nessa or other people was based on sound reasoning, and nothing looks to me like it was arrived at by Nightly inspiration. Trailless kill seems much more likely to me.

(x-ed with Kit and Cop. )

[Coppermirror]

About Inzil's plan to hook wolves yesterDAY...I do think that what he said was consistent, at least in terms of having me as the target. On the first page he mentioned me in a pointed way about three times, and sounded deliberately unconvinced another time when I explained something to him. He mentioned mild suspicion of Kitanna twice. And really, I thought that my first few posts in the thread looked a little suspicious myself.

Apparently nobody likes to lynch first-time players on the first DAY, so it would have been fairly safe to be suspicious of me and see who reacted. That sort of move wouldn't have been a bad idea to try to stir up discussion on a DAY when it was important for the village not to keep solely to banter.

When I first read the posts on the first DAY, I also felt mildly suspicious of Kitanna. But when I looked at her posts again later in the DAY, I decided it was my imagination. So I think I can see why Inzil might have had a vague feeling of suspicion.

Which is not to say that Inzil isn't still suspicious.

Anyway, in light of things people have said, I think I may need to reconsider my opinions about people's suspiciousness. But that'll be much later. I'll probably be gone for at least the next 9 or 10 hours.

[Kitanna]

++Zil

I almost didn't make it yesterday. I assumed I'd be lynched because no one else was in the lead. I can't take that chance when I know there's a wolf.

This is a small village and I'd rather sacrifice myself then let Zil live another Night to terrorize and kill.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

++Zil

I almost didn't make it yesterday. I assumed I'd be lynched because no one else was in the lead. I can't take that chance when I know there's a wolf.

This is a small village and I'd rather sacrifice myself then let Zil live another Night to terrorize and kill.

You "know" he's a wolf...Are you saying that you're the Seer?

If not, could you expand a bit on your reasons for why you think Inzil is a wolf? I know you gave some reasons yesterDAY, but a little more would be helpful.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm back! And it appears quite a bit(of banter? ) has ocurred in my absence. There are votes already, as well! I can see the Kit suspicion as being relatively okay considering it's only day 1 with not much to go on - we're all pretty much grasping for straws.

But I'm not sure I like the way sally ends up latching onto Inzil's random unease with Kit, admittedly upon much the same reasoning.

[Meneltarmacil]

"I have a confession to make," said Kitanna after gathering the townsfolk together. "I am not the simple hermit you see before you. I am in fact Radagast the Brown, and have used my magic to reveal that Inziladun is a werewolf."

"I have had enough of your lies, hound of Saruman," replied Inzil. "I am the Brown Wizard, and this beast is trying to trick you."

"If you're a wizard, then I'm the King of Gondor," retorted Kit.

"Give it up, you animals!" shouted Sally. "I'm Radagast, and you're both wolves!"

"You can't all be Radagast," observed Coppermirror. "But which one's telling the truth?"

"I say we put them all to a test and let Eru sort them out," G55 suggested. "That way, it'll be fair."

"OK, pie eating contest in five minutes!" said Inzil, accpting the offer. "Let's get this over with."

The villagers agreed, and soon a large number of pies were brought out. After an hour or so, Inzil had won.

"Congratulations, Inzil," said G55. "You get to be lynched."

"What?"

"You picked a contest you were sure to win, baker, and that ravenous appetite doesn't help you any."

Inzil suddenly flew into a rage. "That's it! I don't care how secret we were supposed to be! I've had it with these people!"

With that, he transformed into a ferocious wolf and charged at the villagers. However, he hadn't noticed just how many pies were still left. A food fight started, and the villagers shoved pie after pie into the wolf's face until he suffocated.

---------------------------------------
The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Kitanna: Cranky hermit
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2
Inziladun (Werewolf): Killed in pie fight with villagers on Day 2

It is now Night 3. Villagers, stop posting. I need names from Radagast and the remaining wolf.

[Meneltarmacil]

The rain was falling hard and fast that night, and Kitanna had retired to her small cabin on the outskirts of the village. Once inside, she dispelled the illusion that had been maintained during the day. Where the hermit had been now stood an old man dressed in a brown hood and robe, holding a gnarled oaken staff.

For the hermit Kitanna was merely a cover for Radagast the Brown, who had moved to Rohan upon learning of Saruman's treachery. The wizard lit a fire with his staff and pondered what to do about th last wolf.

Suddenly, there was a loud Bang and the door shuddered. Radagast raised his staff and peered cautiously at the door.

"Enter if you must, wolf, but be warned, for I came from the same stock as your master," he said.

The wolf accepted the challenge, knocking down the door and leaping upon the wizard with a savage growl. The old man was surprisingly strong when provoked, and threw the wolf back. The wolf momentarily paused, seeing Radagast somehow greater in stature and glowering menacingly.

"Begone and trouble this village no more!" shouted the wizard. The wolf was no fool, though, seeing the illusion for what it was. The beast leapt forward again, knocking the wizard back and shattering his staff into pieces. Shaken by this new twist of fate, Radagast offered little resistance as the wolf snapped his neck.

Before the wolf could devour the body, though, it dissolved into a grey mist. Rising upward, it hovered for a while until a wind mysteriously picked up and carried it west.

All the villagers found in the morning were a pile of tattered robes and a broken staff.

Saruman grinned upon seeing what had transpired. At last that meddlesome, bird-loving fool had gotten what he deserved.
--------------------------------------------------------
The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2
Inziladun (Werewolf): Killed in pie fight with villagers on Day 2
Kitanna (Radagast): Neck snapped by wolf on Night 3

It is now Day 3. Villagers, post away.