Sauron's Great Miscalculation

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

As Gandalf noted in The Last Debate, Sauron's victory would have been 'complete' with his possession of the One, meaning he would have had the power to utterly crush the West, instead of just beating it down.

Yes, but what does that mean? He was going to triumph militarily anyway. This would have presumably included a massacre and enslavement of all hostile populations. What could they have done against him anyway. How could it have been more complete?

That's probably a topic for another thread, but concerning Arnor and Gondor at least, I think their slow procreation was attributable largely to their desire to keep their Númenórean blood as pure as possible, and not 'pollute' it with the blood of lesser Men.

Rohan, though it seemed to have a sizable population, seems to have also been afflicted with some racist tendencies: looking down on their Dunlending neighbors and looking warily at those without the coveted golden hair.

Orcs, and Men from Rhûn and Harad might not have been so self-constrained.

I had forgotten but I think the Kingdom of Dale repopulated quickly, so there is one instance.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Yes, but what does that mean? He was going to triumph militarily anyway. This would have presumably included a massacre and enslavement of all hostile populations. What could they have done against him anyway. How could it have been more complete?

I suspect that without the One there was a much higher possibility of resistance being maintained despite his victory, even as desperate and isolated pockets. With the One in his possession he would, presumably, be able to eradicate all opposition, however slight, and maintain this state of affairs for a much longer period of time.

For instance I imagine that his already vast empire, were the West added to it, would have been extremely unwieldy to control without the One allowing him to dominate the wills of his subjects. This may have particularly been a problem in the West as many of the older realms knew of him and his evil, which might have made their subjugation much more difficult than the wide lands to the East and South which had been blinded by the Shadow since the Elder Days.

Lacking the One would have also made it much more difficult for him to attack Rivendell and Lórien, perhaps impossible without coming himself, which would have possibly been a risk he was reluctant to take.

Overall I think it's a question of the pervasiveness and stability of his control with and without the One in his possession.

[Boromir88]

For instance I imagine that his already vast empire, were the West added to it, would have been extremely unwieldy to control without the One allowing him to dominate the wills of his subjects. This may have particularly been a problem in the West as many of the older realms knew of him and his evil, which might have made their subjugation much more difficult than the wide lands to the East and South which had been blinded by the Shadow since the Elder Days.~Zigur

That's an interesting hypothetical that I don't think many (or at least I haven't) really considered. If the Ring wasn't destroyed, Sauron's victory appears inevitable. If he gets the Ring back, I can see the argument that his domination over Middle-earth would be swift. If it's not destroyed, but say he never gets it back, say at the Council of Elrond it's decided to throw the Ring into the Sea. Sauron's victory would still come, as the pockets still resisting "fight the long defeat" (as Galadriel puts it)...but then how does Sauron maintain control over his whole "empire?"

He's not Morgoth, he isn't trying to destroy the world. He wants to enslave it to his will and that would be a lot harder to do without the One. It may even come to a point where Sauron realizes he can't do it without the One, and falls to nihilism like Morgoth.

I think we get a glimpse of Sauron's plans of how he would maintain control over his newly expanded empire when he wins:

'These are the terms,' said the Messenger, and smiled as he eyed them one by one. 'The rabble of Gondor, and its deluded allies shall withdraw at once beyond the Anduin, first taking oaths never again to assail Sauron the Great in arms, open or secret. All lands east of the Anduin shall be Sauron's fore ever, solely. West of the Anduin as far as the Misty Mountains and the Gap of Rohan shall be tributary to Mordor, and men there shall bear no weapons, but shall have leave to govern their own affairs. But they shall help to rebuild Isengard which they have wantonly destroyed, and that shall be Sauoron's and there his lieutenant shall dwell: not Saruman, but one more worthy of trust.'
Looking in the Messenger's eyes they read his thought. He was to be that lieutenant, and gather all that remained of the West under his sway, he would be their tyrant they his slaves.~The Black Gate Opens

So, if we take these terms as the truth to Sauron's new world order after his victory. Everything east of the Anduin is Sauron's empire fore ever and shall not be assailed again. Everything west of the Anduin to the Misty Mountains will be ruled from a rebuilt Isengard by Sauron's lieutenant (presumably the Mouth). I wonder about the lands then west of the Misty Mountains? Eriador and the Shire? Would he place another lieutenant in Angmar, or does Sauron think with the Kingdom of Arnor already destroyed and just viewing hobbits as little rat-spies, there would be no issues enslaving them?

Although, I agree with Zigur, without the One this would be much harder for Sauron to establish and maintain.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I wonder about the lands then west of the Misty Mountains? Eriador and the Shire?

I suspect that the impression the Captains of the West gained, that the Mouth of Sauron would "gather all that remained of the West under his sway", suggests that, in actual fact, everything between the Anduin and the Sea would be under the Mouth's jurisdiction (and thus Sauron's), and that the statement about the Mountains and the Gap of Rohan was just empty politicking intended to sound more reasonable. After all, despite how duplicitous the Mouth was being in any event, there was no one present to represent two of the major powers of the North, Erebor and Dale, who would have come under Sauron's 'East of the Anduin' dominion.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Zigûr

I suspect that without the One there was a much higher possibility of resistance being maintained despite his victory, even as desperate and isolated pockets. With the One in his possession he would, presumably, be able to eradicate all opposition, however slight, and maintain this state of affairs for a much longer period of time.

For instance I imagine that his already vast empire, were the West added to it, would have been extremely unwieldy to control without the One allowing him to dominate the wills of his subjects. This may have particularly been a problem in the West as many of the older realms knew of him and his evil, which might have made their subjugation much more difficult than the wide lands to the East and South which had been blinded by the Shadow since the Elder Days.

Lacking the One would have also made it much more difficult for him to attack Rivendell and Lórien, perhaps impossible without coming himself, which would have possibly been a risk he was reluctant to take.

Overall I think it's a question of the pervasiveness and stability of his control with and without the One in his possession.

While the elimination of the defenses of Rivendell and Lorien is a good point, I'm not convinced regarding Sauron's domination of the wills of his subjects. In some respects the Ring doesn't seem to have helped him much in that regard. His forces abandoned him when confronted with the Numenoreans (which could be interpreted as a feint). The Faithful (mere men) continued to defy him, some of them in person. It is ambiguous if Sauron had the Ring with him then, but the fact that Tolkien himself laid out a scenario for Sauron's possession of the Ring in Numenor potentially strengthens the case of Sauron having it there.

Originally Posted by Zigûr

there was no one present to represent two of the major powers of the North, Erebor and Dale, who would have come under Sauron's 'East of the Anduin' dominion.

Gimli was there, but I suppose he couldn't claim to represent his people.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Gimli was there, but I suppose he couldn't claim to represent his people.

I can't believe I overlooked that. I was going to include Mirkwood, but then I thought "Wait, Legolas was there." How could I have forgotten Gimli?

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

The Faithful (mere men) continued to defy him, some of them in person. It is ambiguous if Sauron had the Ring with him then, but the fact that Tolkien himself laid out a scenario for Sauron's possession of the Ring in Numenor potentially strengthens the case of Sauron having it there.

Certainly the Ring wasn't guaranteed to control people, but in the same letter in which Professor Tolkien imagines Sauron having the Ring in Númenor he also says that "He naturally had the One Ring, and so very soon dominated the minds and wills of most of the Númenóreans." This implies that the Ring could be quite effective in dominating the wills of others, if not one hundred per cent. Perhaps Faithfulness was some defence.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Zigûr

After all, despite how duplicitous the Mouth was being in any event, there was no one present to represent two of the major powers of the North, Erebor and Dale, who would have come under Sauron's 'East of the Anduin' dominion.

A week prior to The Black Gate there was the Battle of Dale where King Dain is slain, and King Brand, with the remaining dwarves and men hold up in Erebor and are besieged. So it's probable Sauron already felt assured Erebor and Dale under his dominion (or was about to be).

And prior to The Council of Elrond, Sauron already sent a messenger to make an offer to the dwarves of Erebor, in exchange for info on a Baggins:

'At this we were greatly troubled, and we gave no answer. And then his fell voice was lowered, and he would have sweetened it if he could. "As a small token only of your friendship Sauron asks this," he said: "that you should find this thief," such was his word, "and get from him, willing or no, a little ring, the least of rings, that once he stole. It is but a trifle that Sauron fancies, and an earnest of your good will. Find it, and three rings that the Dwarf-sires possessed of old shall be returned to you, and the realm of Moria shall be yours fore ever. Find only news of the thief, whether he still lives and where, and you shall have great reward and lasting friendship from the Lord. Refuse, and things will not seem so well. Do you refuse?"~The Council of Elrond

The dwarves realize the messengers offer from Mordor is full of deception and refuse to help. But it establishes, if Sauron could afford to do it, he would offer some form of "false friendship" instead of spending resources on war and force of arms. When the Western powers show resistance, he uses military force.

[Ivriniel]

The rise of the Shadow while the Ring was severed from the Body of Sauron, implies something I have always wondered about and that has left me with indications of doubt. How did it occur. On what basis was he able to re-corporate and then ADD in *nine* Nazgul to manipulate (who remained enslaved). Presumably they were difficult to control, and with a nett power quotient loss, at the least it makes no sense that he could rise *and* control them.

Then, there's that weirdo thing that happened at the obviously corrupt Counsel of Elrond.

1. Frodo's body was already somewhat 'transparent' after being 'healed'. The Nazgul got part of Frodo's body. The process is irreversible as implied by the invisibility of 'wraithishness' residual.

2. The Nine of course did know about the Ford of Bruinen. Sauron is not stupid. They knew their horses would die. They wanted them to die. They wanted water to flush all touch of the Living from them, so they could Telekinetically, or tele-sentiently, clairsentiently have an Unviolated contact with Sauron. The UNDEAD FLESH to EYE OF SAURON, was, ergo, a triangulation to Frodo's part UNDEAD part ALIVE ruin of hobbit. And Sauron had telepathic links with the Three PRIOR at Orodruin (Agh Burzum Ishi Krimpatul), and had intimate contact with Celebrimbor for hundreds of years. Thus, he was aware of the degree of deranged depravity the Three had tapped into, in their making.

3. Has it occurred to us ever that the idea of "preservation" and the incepting need of the Elves was a vulgarity and as a Vanity of conceit, and violation of Eru's order of Ea in what it had been vested into. To believe as a Peoples that they had the right to Annexe that kind of Power in realms DIVIDED from Middle Earth, with such xenophobic impetus is the Evil of Vanity. Galadriel was the most divisive, as an abomination. Her realm was covetous, separatist and defined by her Ring. Therefore, to so greedily closet her zones of 'preservation' is abomination. Her mirror is a nausea of narcissistic self fulfilling aggrandisation. Looking her own wonder and beauty and expansive vomit.

4. In the Council of Elrond, hasn't anyone wondered how overly eager Frodo was to continue. Greedily enslaved at the unconscious level, I mean seriously, he's just had two weeks of telesentience with The Nine, and there he is rising in seeming candour.

5. The fact that Elrond acquiesced at was a malevolence of conceit, not Sauron's but Elvish in nature. The Noldor all, in Middle Earth were premised on the Kinslaying in a greedy pursuit of their vanity to own a pretty light (the Silmarils). Such rebellion against the Laws of Creation is gerationally transmitted. And Aule links together, Feanor (Noldor), Sauron and creations of Vanity. That's the parable of Aulie, in its undertones where excessive greed, beyond need of a Crafting are involved.

Sauron was atoned of excess Greed by the removal of the Ring from his body and in an atonement that was not 'emotionally felt' but implied by an endpoint--ORODRUIN. So, the Ring at its melting, was an "Unflow incident" of the reuniting of the Body of a Maia with greeds, resolving the nett areas of Sauron's residual malevolent Greeds. He is restored. He went back from 'whence he came' prior to the dividing of his Body from the Body of Ea and he was a master craftsman of Aule. The Shadow Hand at the Morthoron was the warning --DIRE-- to the hosts transliterally, that 'what thou seest, is what though art, and this time, mine hand cometh unto, into and through thee, to manifest resolution of Elvish insanity',

That is, he did GOOD. He got the last of the Elvish perversions in balance of ruinous selfish vanity and Greed to covet 'preserved' areas of enstasised reality. Galadriel has a debt of suffering yet to atone for.

Sauron's body, no doubt recorporates as Spirit of Maia, and penetrates Ea, and no doubt stands by Aule's side. You cannot slay a Maia. And Saruman's warning to Hobbits I would say is same same. Saruman's discorporation in the Shire, was the unconscious self sacrifice and made possible the manifestation of the Mallorn. And a gift of restitution from that vile vomitous conceited Galadriel "unfriends with Feanor forever". That should have warned us to heed. She hated in him that which she was, indeed. We hate what we see in others as a hatred of conceit to deny that trait exists in ourselves. She was no better. Look at her works of Vanity and how they mirror (of Galadriiel) self-ponderance and naval gazing.

As for Celebrimbor. The relationship with Sauron is of his seduction by power. Tolkien does not speak explicitly about whether or not it had sexual overtones, but relationships of POWER ALL have a sexual undertone. More often those manifest as aphrodisiac of the power master. I've no doubt that Sauron knew that much, at the least. And that because Celebrimbor COULD not speak of the latent sexual undertone of a POWER MOTIVE ('yes lord Annatar, I am indeed en-greeded to obey your master teachings LORD OF GIFTS' I shall craft a realm of defiance of the Valar and preserve'). Sauron, I wonder then, must have known that the Rings touched or not, were imbued WITH Sauronic Endeavour and BY proximity to Sauron was Celebrimbor. And Body of Elvendhom of Body of Maia, no doubt, the Rings three Afire with malevolent greeds of desire, NON discerned.

. dot (DOT)

[Ivriniel]

autopoietic (DOT) DOT .

The above are transgenic inferences - that is, there was no indication in the narratives that Elvish persons were immune from the trappings of Greed.

Maeglin is case in point, who was LESS prone to perversion by the Vanity of Conceit to "hide from even himself" THAN Celebrimbor (quote by Tolkien about Sauron after the War of Wrath). This comment I place 'first last' (ie I had it I mind for the big post and it governs context of overview of my prose. Celebrimbor is Noldorin and Feanor's very VAIN grandson. "I CELEBRIMBOR DID WRITE THEM". Doors to Khazad Dum. Really, did you Celebrimbor! Glad you needed to tell us how very GRAND you are, lovely VAIN ELF,

Sauron, after begging for mercy from Eonwe, pleaded in earnest (so he thought but lied even unto himself). Annatar had a new acquired wisdom about this. Entre, Eregion, and Celebrimbor.....Sauron is Coming Back and knew from Eregion that he had

3, THREE (Music of Ainur) TERMS of GOVERNANCE. Count them up. The THIRD (three Rings) manifested closure with the THIRD END of his Body Corporeal (Barad Dur toppling).