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06-30-2014, 07:31 PM | #481 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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Not an exaggeration: If toDay does not end in us lynching someone who voted for Kit yesterDay, I am withdrawing from this game.
What with the midafternoon DL, inability to keep avatars straight when on my phone, and references I don't understand and therefore have to take at face value much to my apparent detriment, I have very little reason to keep playing at this point (other than the narrations, which have been fantastic, for which I heartily applaud our fair lady moddesses). I have no other focus toDay. If we can't manage a more sensible lynch than the sham that was yesterDay, I have no further purpose here, and I'm done. Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why? I have a headache and it's currently super hard to look at my computer. I'll be back in a bit when I'm medicated and fed.
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06-30-2014, 07:33 PM | #482 |
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I'm here and reading. I'd love to analyze everyone, but I've had an exhausting day and I really don't have the energy.
Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team. We have to get toDay's vote right. Edit: X'd with Sally |
06-30-2014, 07:41 PM | #483 | |
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There's twelve of us, though. 10/12 non-lions, 8/10 innocents; even if everything goes as poorly as possible, we've still got 5/9 innocents toMorrow. So, it's not great, but it's not as dire as that yet.
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06-30-2014, 07:44 PM | #484 |
Mellifluous Maia
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06-30-2014, 07:46 PM | #485 | ||||
Gruesome Spectre
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At any rate I think that Bear-hunting is less effective than Lion hunting at this point. x/d with Sally, Rikae, Lottie, and Rikae again.
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06-30-2014, 07:54 PM | #486 | |
Gruesome Spectre
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I've already answered that. And how were you so certain she was innocent?
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06-30-2014, 07:55 PM | #487 |
Gruesome Spectre
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Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage?
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06-30-2014, 08:32 PM | #488 |
Animated Skeleton
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06-30-2014, 08:39 PM | #489 |
Laconic Loreman
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I do believe sally isn't messing around, she's not one to talk about withdrawing unless she's being honest. It's just really sad to see she's this frustrated she might leave...
I think there are evil paws in the Kit votes last night, but there's got to be a better way than "do it or I'm done"?
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06-30-2014, 08:52 PM | #490 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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YesterDay's voting
Green-->Kit
Boro-->Lommy Gil-->Lommy (2) Dun-->Kit (2) Enca-->Kit (3) Wyth-->Kit (4) Cop-->Kit (5) Kit-->Enca Lottie-->Kit (6) Lommy-->Kit (7) Sally-->Lommy (3) Nog-->Kit (8) Rikae-->Enca (2) Eomer-->Boro We have two wolves and a werebear/maiden combo. While the latter pairing isn't technically evil, they are killing during the Night, so in any case, we have four troublesome folks about. Of all of the votes yesterDay, only six of them weren't for Kit, and of those six, two are dead, and one is me. It is mathematically impossible for Kit's lynch to have been purely innocent-driven. Entirely. Mathematically. Impossible. I'm not saying that all of the people who voted for someone else are innocent, but there is at least one villain among the Kit voters, period. x'd since Dun
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06-30-2014, 09:00 PM | #491 |
Gruesome Spectre
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Ok. I wasn't counting the Lovers like you are.
I'd still like to know how you could have been so sure Kit was innocent.
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06-30-2014, 09:00 PM | #492 |
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Sally, don't forget that Eonwe did not vote yesterday. This bumps the number of people who were not on the Kitwagon, AND who are still alive, up to five (Eonwe, Boro, Rikae, Eomer, and yourself). So while I don't think it's likely that all four "troublesome folks" didn't vote for Kit, it IS mathematically possible.
Last edited by Encaitare; 06-30-2014 at 09:02 PM. Reason: Edited for clarity, cross-posted with Inzil |
06-30-2014, 09:08 PM | #493 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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x'd since Dun again
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06-30-2014, 09:17 PM | #494 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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FYI: I need to get some sleep in the semi-immediate future, but I should be able to pop on briefly during breaks and things tomorrow and hopefully can vote sometime in the afternoon.
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06-30-2014, 11:09 PM | #495 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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I should be on my way to the train to work already, but real quick -
Worried about Lommy, not worried about Boro, Sally confuses me but seems likely innocent, and I had a lot of stuff I wanted to comment on but have no time! I'll be back sometime before DL.
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07-01-2014, 02:31 AM | #496 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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So the lions win now if there are them and two non-lions/innocents/ordos/villagers left? Which of those and with what kind of definition? What is the Bear and what is the Maiden - and do their status in regards to counting the result change somehow if one of them dies? The rules say that in case of one going down the remaining lover "effectively becomes" an ordo or a cobbler. Those both are normally counted as "non-lions" and thus someone whose numbers are counted for the village. But what does it mean they "become" it? Isn't the maiden a non-lion already for counting purposes? To put it plainly. How many normal villagers (ordos and/or gifteds) we need to have to win a) if both the Bear and the maiden are also alive, b) if of the lovers only the maiden is alive, c) if of the lovers only the Bear is alive? EDIT: HAHA. Sorry the bad phrasing: the plain question of course is: how many normal villagers will lose the game... Naturally we need to kill all lions to win, but at which numbers we lose (presuming there are two lions alive)?
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07-01-2014, 03:12 AM | #497 | |
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Kath is at work (as am I, but I have a neat desk job and don't have to spend all my day yelling at children), so I'll take the liberty to decide. I would say that as long as they are together, the lovers are on nobody's side and don't count as "normal villagers" in the tally. If there are two lions, you'll need to have two villagers in addition to the lovers. However, if one of them dies, the other will count as a normal villager. If there are two lions, you'll have to have two villagers, and one of them can be the surviving Maiden or the Bear (acting as an ordo or cobbler depending on the nature of their lover's death). I feel this is fair because otherwise the Maiden & the Bear would have a hard time winning with the lions, and it also makes sense game-wise - if the bear is actively defending himself against the lions (in a game ending situation), he's too big and strong for them to tackle without suffering losses, so it's in their best interests to let him and his lover go.
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07-01-2014, 03:21 AM | #498 | |
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What kind of bothers me is your insistence that Kit was somehow self-evidently innocent and your willingness to jump on everyone who thought differently. I mean you do understand that only the lions knew that Kit was not one of them. We know it now, but that's hindsight. We didn't know it then - and I do still stand behind my vote as having been the reasonable one then. It's not the first or the last time innocent people get it wrong even if they think they have fair points and have reasons to believe so. That said you're correct in saying the lions could have used the Kit-Wagon to their advantage as it is an easy place to hide when most of the people are of the same mind. Actually I think I already said earlier toDay, that my educated gut-feeling would be that one of the lions voted Kit and the other for someone else. And anyway, the fact that someone voted Kit doesn't make that person a lion even if it is possible or even probable that at least one of them did so. Seven of the Kit-voters are alive and we only have two lions left, so probably 5 to 6 of the 7 are not lions... Okay. I'm off for quite some while now but will be back later and willing to go back to the drawingboard and restarting from the only fair source of knowledge aka. Maclion and things around him. I see Aganzir's rule-confirmation now... and it kind of confirms also my point about the order of importance. With two lions we still face a possibility the lovers might think of going to the dark side but if we get one more lion down... well it's basically really close we win as it makes a lot of sense for the lovers to join us then.
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07-01-2014, 03:39 AM | #499 |
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Ok, so RL got in the way of me posting yesterDay, but seriously, what happened? I'm going to reread yesterDay, but that vote seemed to come out of nowhere. I may be slightly overreacting because she was the only person I was almost certain was innocent, but still...
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07-01-2014, 04:35 AM | #500 | ||||||||||||
Shady She-Penguin
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Commenting as I read, as usual
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Boro's return makes more sense than his actions yesterDay. I feel better about him already, even though it seems we still disagree. Quote:
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What on earth is going on with Sally. Also, since Eomer has been asking the same questions as you, the reasons why Kitanna was voted yesterDay have been and will be repeated. Quote:
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As a side note, toDay seems to be the Day when people start getting emotional and frustrated (yours truly included), so let's just all take a deep breath and calm down. This is supposed to be a fun game. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody gets suspected, and the village doesn't always do what you think is right. Let's not let that ruin any of our fun. I'm going now, and I will be back later, not sure when and for how much time, but I'll be here.
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07-01-2014, 04:56 AM | #501 | |
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Quote:
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07-01-2014, 05:03 AM | #502 | |||||
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Zil and Mac, pt.1
Looking at some interactions I've found suspicious.
{} = my own comments {*} Added more of the original post for context than is actually quoted. Day 1 Quote:
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07-01-2014, 05:04 AM | #503 | |||
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pt.2
Zil's vote:
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Thoughts: The constant flirting (for want of a better word) of the "Oh, I suspect you! Not really!" or "I always suspect you haha! Vote!" sort made me suspect they might actually be really bold lovers on Day 1. But the fact is, Zil is talking about how Mac's suspicious but he won't actually vote him because he's 'giving him a pass for the Day', and Mac is voting Zil but with no actual backing. (I mean, it is Day 1, but still...) And he waits until he sees Skip has a clear lead, and then votes for Zil. That seems suspicious to me, because he could just about claim that there was still time for a Zilwaggon (and that it wasn't really a throwaway vote, which he denounced), but he left it long enough that it was unlikely. Now onto Day 2...
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07-01-2014, 05:43 AM | #504 |
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To Lommy: whether you are a villain or not I very much like your last post. To clarify: I was really on no high horse when I asked for some Kitanna-explanation; I was only straight-forwardly asking "Ok, guys, let's collect ourselves - can someone please explain this to me" rather than "you jerks got some explaining to do."
Sally, I get frustration in WW (though I personally haven't felt it for years and years) but you have to recognise that your post today didn't make much sense. What are the innocent villagers supposed to make of it? I perhaps had a similar reaction on Day 1, when I was fairly certain that the Skip-bandwagon was a total mistake, but I obviously wasn't absolutely certain - I couldn't be unless I was evil. Of course, I love it when people make strong cases in these games, and those who don't can be labelled as playing 'safe', but there are better ways to do it, I reckon. And now I'm still very confused by you and Boro. But for now I'm gonna put my confusion on hold and attempt to focus on other players. I for sure need to look at Enca and Rikae who have escaped my attention thus far.
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07-01-2014, 05:52 AM | #505 | |||
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Mac and Zil, pt.3
Day 2
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07-01-2014, 06:01 AM | #506 | ||||||||||
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pt. 4
And then Mac goes into full suspicion mode:
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So, after Day 2, I'm not so sure. At the end, they turn on each other, but this is likely no matter what Zil's role is. Either an attempt at self-preservation for Mac, or distancing from each other if one of them gets killed and they're both lions. Or a bit of both (splitting the vote to try to maybe get someone else lynched?). Anyway, I wouldn't say Day 2 makes him any more suspicious, but I'd still put Zil in the "suspicious" category because he hasn't done anything that makes him seem more innocent (I still need to give yesterDay a thorough reread, so this may change).
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07-01-2014, 06:05 AM | #507 |
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On a side note, after going through Day 2, I wonder if there's more to Rikae and Zil's argument than meets the eye...
Anyway, back to rereading.
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07-01-2014, 06:36 AM | #508 | ||
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Mac and Zil, addendum
I think I missed this rather key quote:
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07-01-2014, 06:37 AM | #509 |
Animated Skeleton
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I'd like to believe Sally's innocence (or at least non-wolfness) from her post at #485. I admit I thought it was a little suspicious how sure she could be, especially after how many of the votes were cast already, and it's easy for a wolf to take that role. But to react that strongly after the fact AND be a wolf would be a very DIRTY tactic. I would be sure to remember something like that in any other game we played together.
And to agree with Eonwe about his suspicions with Zil/Mac. It felt like their rivalry was a little forced through all their interactions, and by day 2, they were both the most suspicious. At that point turning against each other is really the only move, because one way or the other one of them was going to be lynched. May as well make a last ditch effort to make yourself look good right? And if true, it was successful, as Zil managed to survive day 3. I keep waffling at this point on him. At the moment, I'm squinty-eyed though. Edit: X/d Eonwe #508 |
07-01-2014, 06:42 AM | #510 | ||||
Gruesome Spectre
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x/d with Eönwë and Wyth
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07-01-2014, 07:12 AM | #511 | ||
Mellifluous Maia
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Nog is the one who's really bothering me toDay, math aside. I just get a feeling he's trying to subtly steer conversation in unhelpful directions. Innocent Nog might do the same, but he'd do it more blatantly! Others I don't feel so good about would be Encai (still) and Inzil, for wolf-on-wolfishness. Unfortunately I'm going to have to vote early toDay. |
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07-01-2014, 07:15 AM | #512 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Ok, just reading back a bit and I noticed something odd. Apparently Lommy listed me as one of those "defending Kit" (rightly), but toDay she lumps me in with those who argued against her.
*Adds Lommy to list of suspects* |
07-01-2014, 07:25 AM | #513 | ||||||||||||||
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Mac and Nog
Day 1
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Seems pretty one-sided. My suspicions based on posting start on Day 2, but given the fact that Nog gives Mac his 4th vote when Skip only had 5, he actually seems pretty innocent. I'm not sure if he's that crazy. There is some "would a lion really do this?", but then he actually follows through and votes. I will still look at Day 2, but I'm somewhat less suspicious of Nog now. Day 2 Quote:
In this post Nog tries to deny that the lions would have chosen G55 because of her suspicion of Mac. He also claims that he saw G55's evil side on D1 but her good only now she's dead. If he's a lion, it could be a good way to justify both times he went for her (the latter successfully). Mild suspicion from Mac: Quote:
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I really don't know. I wouldn't put it past Nog to be such a bold lion, but voting for a packmate two Nights in a row at crucial moments is pretty extreme. The last few posts could go either way. I wouldn't put it past him to show that sort of regret (maybe?) at voting Mac as a way to make himself not look like a lion trying to look like a villager (i.e. being quiet because he knows the outcome and then rejoicing in the victory), and also set up the next Day's Kit kill. If he is a lion, he probably was genuinely frustrated that he was a major force in pushing Mac's death unnecessarily (no overwhelming rush of Mac votes from the remaining 4). Overall, I'd say he seems less suspicious to me than when I started based on his Mac connections, but I wouldn't rule him out.
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07-01-2014, 07:28 AM | #514 | ||
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Some posts I came across that would be interesting if both are lions:
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And again even more strongly here (three layers of nested quotes is too much for me). And now to look at the mess that was yesterDay...
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07-01-2014, 07:40 AM | #515 | ||
Bittersweet Symphony
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Last edited by Encaitare; 07-01-2014 at 07:41 AM. Reason: Cross-posted with Eonwe |
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07-01-2014, 08:00 AM | #516 | |
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Ok, I think I've finally read up on yesterDay.
The village voted Kit because of this post!? Quote:
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07-01-2014, 08:36 AM | #517 | |
Shady She-Penguin
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And to everyone who suspects me, do you really think I would have killed Gil if I was a wolf? That would be plain suicidal, both because there was quite a lot of suspicion against me already yesterDay and because the hunter is still alive. Also I can't fathom why as a wolf would I have every Day talked about how it makes way more sense for the lovers to side with the village. Really, think about it. I have a feeling I'm being set up as a lynch candidate since the beginning of the Day and I don't like it. I don't want to die with such a crappy track record and I don't want to die as a helpless victim of a wolf ploy!
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07-01-2014, 08:54 AM | #518 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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A straight answer, I think, would be "no". But it would be a part of the reasoning for some (like me). I mean it's not only the "slip" (which turned out not to be a slip after all) of kind of letting it be seen in between the lines that she knows no lions were mentioned aka. she knows who they are because she is one herself - but also that it defends Mac who then turned out a lion...
But I think her relation with Mac (mutual) were the first reasons to vote for her - and her own votes the second reason, this maybe coming as the third important or something... but yeah, let's continue as these cases have been argued like dozen times already by several people. So I mean next time someone asks "why did you lynch Kit" I'd only say "read the thread" as many people have stated these reasons quite clearly quite many times already. But this spotting by Eönwë I do appreciate as at least I had totally overseen/forgotten it: Quote:
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07-01-2014, 09:06 AM | #519 | |
Gruesome Spectre
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I'm trying to not see Eönwë as a potential Lion boring in on a perceived easy lynch, but the possibility has gone through my mind.
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07-01-2014, 09:12 AM | #520 |
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I'd daresay the case for Inzil is not looking good for him at the moment. Taking a look at just the lynch-votes for a second. Of the skip voters, there are only 3 people left alive (and it was a pretty accepted theory day 2 that at least one of the lions was living in that group). Those people are Lottie, Eonwe, and Inzil (thus far, I've felt pretty trustful of Lottie and Eonwe, so I hope that doesn't come back to bite me). Next, the remaining kit voters are Greenie, Inzil, Encai, Myself, Lottie, Lommy, and Nog. Both Inzil and Lottie are here, so it doesn't look good for Lottie, but as I mentioned before I'm leaning more towards Inzil being the evil one, other posts considered. Hasn't seemed to be acting entirely weird toDay though..
Edit: X'd since Nog |
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