WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Thinlómien]

I'm here, I just read the thread and plan to reply all the posts that have come during my absence... But I can keep refreshing the thread every now and then if you want to talk...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Give us some info as to who you are quoting Boro... well that goes to everyone of you lazybones...

Oh come on now, it's not that hard to follow. I wrapped one of your posts, responded, one of Lommy's posts, responded, wrapped one of Shasta's posts of suspicions against me, and responded. It is not that confusing, I'm not going to put "Shasta" at the end of every quote if I'm responding to different points in one of his posts. All un-named quotes after the Shasta one are from Shasta's same post, except the one that I point out it's from Shasta's #234. Relax yourself Mr. Grinch.

I'm up early and here until 2-ish when I'll have to vote.

[satansaloser2005]

Enough snow that I'm too lazy to go to the office. (Besides, we'd decided to be closed today if it snows, so it works out.) Only three or four posts since I went to bed so I'm caught up, but I'm going to attend to some housework and then look through again and see what there is to see.


I haven't had a snow day since high school. ^_^

[Thinlómien]

I don't know why, but I get huge wolvish vibes from Wilwa's first post, more so on the first than on the second reading, though.

Shasta is seeming a lot more innocent to me since he's putting so much effort to the game. It is difficult for me to see a wolf-Shasta analysing stuff so thoroughly. I know that some wolves waste a lot of energy on analyses to look innocent or to get something to say (like Brinn), but some are lazy and avoid analyses because they're so much work and because they can't really profit of them the same way as innocents (like me). I'm not sure, but I think Shasta is more of the latter sort (and this is not an offense, or then it's also an offense against myself too - I think it's more a question of temperament ).

Shasta - I agree that Mac's interactions with Pitch are weird, but like I said yesterDay, if he's a wolf, he was trying to get fellow Mnemo lynched on Day2 and fellow Pitch was trying to get him lynched on Day1, and that is a bit too much of a stretch for my imagination at least.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, I think that, as a wolf, Lommy would say that. If you think about it, she's saying "Oh, well, I can't be bothered to pay attention. Someone'll have to do something to get me interested, 'cause I don't have a role to make me interested." Subtle wolfish hinting?

No, really, you're misinterpreting me again. I didn't mean I couldn't be bothered to pay attention or that I was bored - I had just problems getting a grip of the game after a long pause, that's it. However, that had nothing to do with my role: I bet I could've been just as lost as a wolf. I'm not one of those people who think the game becomes more interesting if I'm a wolf, more on the contrary since I don't like being a wolf. So, what I mean is that you should not make any conclusions on my role based on me feeling "detached", that could've happened to me with having any role (except possibly the seer since that is the most adrenaline-y role there is or some role I have never tried before, like the cobbler, but we don't need to bother ourselves with that because those roles are not included in this game). So take me either as an innocent feeling detached or a wolf feeling detached pretending to be an innocent feeling detached. And Shasta, no, I'm not going to say I'm feeling detached again, but simply because I have felt a lot more involved in the game (got the grip on it, so to speak) since sometime on Day2 (you can even check, I think I said it already then).

Originally Posted by Loslote

Interesting. She trusts Wilwa's analysis but puts her in the probably guilty category, and puts Pitchie in the probably innocent category. Hm...

I have no problems trusting people's analyses even if I suspect them: I very much doubt anyone is going to lie or hide stuff in their analyses even if they are wolves - that wouldn't be smart at all. My general attitude towards the facts provided in analyses is trusting while my attitude towards the conclusions of the analyses may be very critical. For proof: when I was writing my big analysis post ysterDay, I was using as my help summary posts from Nienna, Sally, Nogrod, Eomer, Mac and Wilwa, all of whom featured on my suspicion list.

Shasta, how does Inzil's death point at Wilwa's innocence? I could follow your analysis otherwise, but I didn't get that part.

On the Lottie issue... I tend to agree with Boro and Nerwen: let's let her be. I have no reason not to believe her claim, and I think the "birthday dreamer" role sounds highly plausible and something Legate could've very well come up with. (And no, this is no inside information, just a personal feeling.) And Sally's theory of a secret role who's forbidden to reveal sounds far-fetched: I think our mod would've been really short-sighted to make that kind of a role and thus give the wolves a huge advantage. So I'm thinking let's let Lottie be and reconsider it if there's a counter-claim. (As a side thing, I'm really not looking forward to another quiet unanimous lynch Day.)

Originally Posted by Boro

I don't like this either, there are an infinite number of reasons I'm (and other vocalists) are alive at this point, other than we must be wolves. That's poor reasons to suspect someone, because you make it sound like we're always the wolves primary kill choices when that's not true.

I know. I'm not stupid (stupid enough to think that as an innocent or stupid enough to try to mislead people like that as a wolf). I never said other reasons are impossible or unlikely - I just said this option exists, and you can't deny that. I know games where what I said has really happened, and those are not a few. That's what made me think of it, although I was never claiming that I suspect it's so in this game. It is a possibility we shouldn't dismiss, as well as we shouldn't dwell on it as long as there's nothing really pointing at it (most of the village is still alive etc).

Originally Posted by Boro

Start making assumptions based on more concrete information that you do know, like knowing they've chosen Inzil, Greenie, and Eomer so far. Why them? And then start looking for connections.

Bossing me around, eh? Well, I'm afraid it's an assumption we've all heard hundreds of times before, also. Inzil, Greenie and Eomer are all smart and independent thinkers, more difficult to lead than some and also less probable to make "alliances" with anybody. Maybe they died because the wolves thought them to be more difficult to thwart or get to their side than others. Or maybe they died because they seemed gifted: all these people tend to have a sort of "reserved" aura around them, which makes them usually feel more gifted than some other innocent players who scream ordo all the time (not necessarily being ones, though). My logic says the wolves would try to get the ranger (and have the hunter die rather early than late when there's a bigger probability for him/her to take one of them to death), so who knows, maybe these people have had a suspicious-looking connection with another player?

But if the wolves are merely looking for gifteds (like I would if I was them) there's precious little to analyse in their kills or conclude from them. Of course one could read each Day from the wolves' perspective and try to think "who looks gifted" and start thinking why the certain person was picked from all gifted-looking people, but that would be both futile and time-consuming: the effort would not be worth the results. And the gifted-hunting strategy could occur to any wolves, so it doesn't point at anybody special being a wolf.

Okay, let's assume for argument's sake, wolves are not after gifteds but want to remove independent thinkers. Who would then be a wolf? At least someone who seeks to lead and affect big masses, possibly someone who likes forming sort of alliances. I would put you, Boro, and Nogrod to the first category without hesitation, maybe some others. And to the second category, at least Sally and Wilwa, possibly myself. However, this does not really lead me to suspect any of the aforementioned people, because I don't want to make the assumption that wolves just want to get rid of independent thinkers.

And lastly, let's take a wacky theory that just occured to me. Maybe wolves are after ordos this time? Any gifted-looking player is with 50% chance the hunter and the ranger has reduced power when s/he's blind without a seer around - and how probable it is that a ranger makes a save randomly anyway? (Okay I just realised this doesn't really play out because it leaves a lot of possible revealers around, but let's keep going for the sake of the argument.) This could again be true, because maybe they thought Inzil was an ordo since he didn't reveal in the last minutes of Day1 (hey that actually makes sense!), and at least to me Greenie seemed very ordoish this time and maybe Eomer's boldness could've been interpreted that way. An ordo-killing wolf pack would consist of at least two bold wolves who could firstly even come up with this kind of idea and wouldn't be afraid of revealment-battles.

That's all I can come up with right now as long as it goes for general killing patterns, and I'm afraid these musings didn't make me any wiser, because none of my hypotheses seems likely. I would go for the interpretation that each kill had its own different motives and what they were, I have no idea of without reading the whole thread (eurgh) except that of course I can say general stuff like "everybody thought Greenie innocent".

Actually the only thing I've got from this is just the thought that since there are two wolves and two gifteds remaining (aprt from Los) the gifteds would do us a favor by revealing themselves before the last Day, if we happened to only lynch innocents from now on. I can just imagine the Day with five people with the gifteds saying "hi, we are the gifteds" and the wolves saying "no, we are the gifteds" and the poor ordo being left to choose... But anyway, this is not relevant yet, so no need to dwell on that now. I just wanted to mention it.

Oh, and that also goes for the hypothetical true secret role holder... I'm not going to buy it if anyone comes out on the last Day and claims to be "the Night7 birthday seer" or whatever.

Mac's analysis of Nogrod is interesting, although it leaves me just as undecided as it apparently left Mac himself...


edit: xed with Boro and Sally and sorry for writing such a novel!
edit2: fixed bolding

[Nerwen]

Hello again... internet went again out for an hour, and now it keeps not letting me quote...anyway...

Originally Posted by Brinniel

It's a good point to bring up, as too often I've seen wolves react in this manner. If any of them are wolves, I'd imagine it's just one as I can't see both wolves reacting in the same way.

For what it's worth, Sally and Shasta crossed.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Of course, these sort of reactions don't always necessarily mean one has to be guilty, but it certainly doesn't help that all three of them have happened to be on my suspicion list at one time or another.

Of course, it's nothing like proof... it does remind me rather of myself last time I was a wolf, though, puzzling over why those fiends of werewolves killed poor Mac.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Sadly, I can see your point. I wouldn't want to waste the Day's lynch, though. Who knows? Maybe the wolves will be nice and obliging and kill me themselves.

Oh, I can see the point, too– however, Nogrod has been saying, "sadly, we may have to lynch her in a couple of Days" over and over, as though it's already agreed on. Makes me a bit uneasy, especially since Sally's so keen on it, and she's one of the players I trust least at the moment. I mean, it's actually quite unnecessary... all we have to do is not treat you as an unlynchable known innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

If you mean a Night kill instead of "lynching" I might understand but otherwise I lost track with you there. I see no reason an innocent would wish to suggest that order but could see the wolves to wish that

Maybe Bes is confusing the Ranger with the Hunter– i.e. thinks it's a kamikaze role? He appears not to understand the rules at all– which could be newbieness, or could be a wolf hiding behind the newbie mask– you know, the usual. *sigh* Perhaps we really should bring in a "read-the-rules or die" law, like people keep saying. Remember Morsul's first game?

Originally Posted by Loslote

Just noting, when I saw that Morsul had posted, my first thought was, "Wait, he's in this game?" It was quickly followed up by, "Of course he is, but he's probably innocent."

Maybe I'm passing him over too much...going from suspecting him just because I always do to not noticing him at all...potentially a problem, but now that I give it some thought, I don't think so... He's not acting like Morwolf.

*shrugs* We've only ever seen one Morwolf, and that was his first game and he was pretending to be the cobbler. I'd forgotten about him too, to tell the truth.

EDIT:X'd with Lommy.

[Boromir88]

Wow, I think I need to digest that massive post of yours Lommy. And I didn't call you stupid, so don't say that about yourself. It aggravates me when people start suspecting me, because I'm not dead by a certain day, because there's no way to defend yourself from those suspicions. Maybe I should just ignore it, but as weak as they are, those types of suspicions snowball, on top of them being really frustrating, because it assumes if I'm not killed by a certain day, I'm a wolf.

Tell me how you would feel if most people were saying (about you): "It's good to keep Lommy around for a few days, because she can be very useful. But if she's not dead by a certain day, she's probably a wolf, therefor she's no more use and it would be a good idea to lynch her." I read stuff like that as...wow I'm only useful up to a certain day, and the only reason I am given those few days is because I can be useful, if I'm innocent. Seriously that's what it sounds like, and it's aggravating.

Bossing me around, eh?~Lommy (happy Nog )

Yes. But that bossing around goes for everyone, because I asked for anyone to look into Inzil's death.

There's only so much one person can do in a day, and I thought while Nienna wasn't the worst choice, there were still several questions to be answered before Nienna should have been lynched (above the others), one being Inzil's death. The only person who did look into Inzil's death, was ironically enough...Pitch. The other being, she was suspected for supposedly saving Mnemo, only when she had the chance she threw away her vote.

That's all good stuff Lommy (I still need to digest it before responding) but that's not the connections I'm talking about. I don't mean how they are similar players, I mean connections as in what names keep popping up between Inzil, Greenie, and Eomer.

Now I've finished Inzil, and I'm going to go through Greenie and Eomer. But the only reason is because I have the time today. This is a shout out to everyone to step it up (besides Shasta and Mac). I don't mean stepping it up, as in posting more, I mean don't waste your time driving yourself (and everyone else) crazy with paranoia. Use it by going through concrete things we do know, such as the 2-wolves being dead, what was going on at the DL in Nienna's lynching? And the people the wolves have killed, not why they haven't killed me, or other loudmouths yet.

Edit: crossed with Nerwen

[Macalaure]

Reading along toDay and writing down whatever comes to mind.

Why Eomer? Has anyone bothered to look up what he's been up to? Not sure whether I'll get to today. I guess he was innocent enough to not be considered a lynch for quite a while, but suspected enough (even though it was very vague), to not be an obvious ranger choice. As a wolf, the ranger would have dissuaded me from Lottie or Lommy. Lottie was probably protected last night, but who knows whether the ranger gambled. If they were not afraid of a ranger gamble, then the wolves probably thought that they could make the village paranoid enough to lynch Lottie. Nogrod comes to mind once again.

Why not Boro? He's not getting much suspicion either. I suppose Boro's suspicions are either very wrong or very right.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

the deaths are 6:2 (of which two are resignments, so actually 4:2 gamingwise) but we're having still 10:2.

Werewolf - the only game where winning means not losing too badly.

A lot of chatter going back and forth. I can't read much into it.

Reading over my own analysis. If Nogrod is a wolf, there's been a strong shift in the wolves' behaviour between Day1 and 2. I remember Mnemo suspected Pitch a little, but the next Day Mnemo and Pitch vote each other and Nogrod is after both. I'm definitely getting paranoid, but it all fits together so nicely! It even makes me wonder whether Nogrod and Brinn's clashing was staged.

Originally Posted by Brinn

This game he's been playing pretty smoothly; while he receives some attention it's not too much.

Apart from almost getting lynched on Day1 and being called jumpy? Jumpy/smooth... funny how people's perception differ.

Not happy with your suspicion in general, Brinn. Very vague. I hope you'll make it more solid today.


Can't rep you yet, Lommy, will get to it.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Shasta is seeming a lot more innocent to me since he's putting so much effort to the game. It is difficult for me to see a wolf-Shasta analysing stuff so thoroughly. I know that some wolves waste a lot of energy on analyses to look innocent or to get something to say (like Brinn), but some are lazy and avoid analyses because they're so much work and because they can't really profit of them the same way as innocents (like me). I'm not sure, but I think Shasta is more of the latter sort (and this is not an offense, or then it's also an offense against myself too - I think it's more a question of temperament ).

You can't really predict how someone may act effort-wise as a wolf, as it can change each game depending on time, calculated style changes, etc. I don't see how Shasta's high activity makes him more innocent. Why do you think he would be more lazy as a wolf? That could be a very wild guess considering in all the games he's played, Shasta has only been a wolf like twice. One of which I was a wolf with him and I actually recall that he was fairly active, though perhaps my memory is mistaken since that was a long time ago. Anyway, I find it interesting that you use me as an example of a wolf who wastes a lot of energy on analyses considering I haven't made a single analysis and yet you still suspected me yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Mac

Apart from almost getting lynched on Day1 and being called jumpy? Jumpy/smooth... funny how people's perception differ.

Not happy with your suspicion in general, Brinn. Very vague. I hope you'll make it more solid today.

Well, I wouldn't say it's quite suspicion...more like concern. But yes, I know it's vague, which is why I won't make anything of it toDay since I don't have time to look any further into why I'm feeling worried about you.

Also, perhaps my perception is different because I admittingly skim through most of the thread, so I probably miss a lot that others pick up on..

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh, I can see the point, too– however, Nogrod has been saying, "sadly, we may have to lynch her in a couple of Days" over and over, as though it's already agreed on.

If we agree on something like that, then of course the wolves won't kill her as they can safely assume we'll take care of her for them if she's still alive in a couple Days. So I agree it's rather ridiculous to say that.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The reasoning seems sound, but the fact remains, you voted someone of lesser suspicion over someone of greater suspicion. That's what doesn't sit right with me. That help?

It does, but weren't you the one who voted for Inzil on Day 1 not because you thought he was all that suspicious, but that Mac and Mnemo looked more innocent? It'll be an interesting stat to find out how many times someone actually votes for their "top suspect."

Now wilwa is my top suspect, and I voted for her first, because I wanted to see her lynched 2 days ago, and I still do. I'm slightly concerned about how she looks like the easy lynch that Nienna supposedly was, but also consider this. There's 2 wolves left, if wilwa is one of them, than all the jumps on her today are likely to be innocent driven. If not, than there's definitely wolf involvement.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Fair enough, but I still think it's silly to make that kind of generalization.

Less details may mean less likely to get caught, but more details means more likely to be believed.

We'll have to agree to disagree on those two, but this is what makes WW so fascinating to play all the mesh of styles and opinions.

Originally Posted by Shasta

You should reply to some of my other posts, Boro. I'm trying especially hard to participate today - I did my Grimoire stats and had it brought home to me today that I've been modkilled due to RL issues three (or was it four? I think it was three) times.

I noticed the effort, which based on your track record, I don't know if it really helps...your involvement is kind of scary actually. In all seriousness though, you're pointing this out does look better. I'll try to, I was going to point out your point about Bes looking good because of Pitch saying Lottie should dream of him. But I didn't really see a point since I was just going to agree with you. For some reason, I only feel the need to respond when we disagree...I do not know why that could be?

I also know that you like to make big votes at the DL, but so far the suspicious thing is you have been off. I mean even when you go through great efforts to try not to lynch a wolf (*cough* sally and me */cough*) you somehow do it.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

I guess he was innocent enough to not be considered a lynch for quite a while, but suspected enough (even though it was very vague), to not be an obvious ranger choice.

Oh, fair interpretation of Eomer's suspiciousness, and it would explain all the differences of opinion there.

Originally Posted by Mac

As a wolf, the ranger would have dissuaded me from Lottie or Lommy.

??? What does this sentence mean? It doesn't make any sense to me.

Originally Posted by Mac

Why not Boro? He's not getting much suspicion either. I suppose Boro's suspicions are either very wrong or very right.

Can we lynch Wilwa on these grounds (meaning the latter of course)?

Originally Posted by Mac

Can't rep you yet, Lommy, will get to it.

What's all this talk about repping? And do I get the mammoth post award or are you just grateful for me defending you...?

Originally Posted by Boro

And I didn't call you stupid, so don't say that about yourself.

No, you didn't, but your point more or less assumes so. And that happens in ww all the time: people make points (sometimes out of thoughtlessness) that assume some people are acting stupidly, and no one should be offended by such points or pointing out that the points assume so. And besides, smart people have been doing stupid things (or maybe the word "stupid" is a bit harsh here) in ww since the beginning, everybody makes mistakes. But people still feel naturally slightly annoyed if they are accused of doing something that seems stupid to them and what they haven't done...

Originally Posted by Boro

It aggravates me when people start suspecting me, because I'm not dead by a certain day, because there's no way to defend yourself from those suspicions. Maybe I should just ignore it, but as weak as they are, those types of suspicions snowball, on top of them being really frustrating, because it assumes if I'm not killed by a certain day, I'm a wolf.

Tell me how you would feel if most people were saying (about you): "It's good to keep Lommy around for a few days, because she can be very useful. But if she's not dead by a certain day, she's probably a wolf, therefor she's no more use and it would be a good idea to lynch her." I read stuff like that as...wow I'm only useful up to a certain day, and the only reason I am given those few days is because I can be useful, if I'm innocent. Seriously that's what it sounds like, and it's aggravating.

I don't know why you take it so personally - I said the same logic could be applied against several people, myself included. (Although with me there's less to wonder since I've been suspected more than you, for example, but that's a side issue.) And like I said, I'm casting suspicion on myself on that logic as well, and indeed that kind of suspicion has been cast on me before, not maybe as often as on you (I don't know your history with this) but I know how it feels.

Lastly, I would like to point out the difference between "Boro is still alive, he must be guilty" and "Boro, Nogrod, Mac and Lommy are all still alive, one of them must be guilty". In the first case, there's only one innocent person labelled guilty because he's considered helpful/dangerous and still alive, in the last case one of the four is labelled guilty (and three out of four innocent...) because there's a certain "group" of players that is still alive. It's the same as if all the silent people in the game were still alive at this point or if all the wacky posters were still alive or whatever: it's simply the fact that wolves like to keep people with similar styles around in order not to attract attention to themselves and it has nothing to do with the assumption "if you're a veteran player and no one suspects you, you must be dead by Day4".

There, no need to be so touchy about it. If it comforts you, I suspect Nogrod of all the "veteran loudmouths" by far the most and that would exonerate you and Mac according to this theory...

But in general, my top suspects are out of the aforementioned category. Currently my best guess at it is a Wilwa+Brinn combination (not sure if that works out together, I have to have a look at it possibly).


edit: xed with Boro and Brinn

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinn

You can't really predict how someone may act effort-wise as a wolf, as it can change each game depending on time, calculated style changes, etc. I don't see how Shasta's high activity makes him more innocent. Why do you think he would be more lazy as a wolf? That could be a very wild guess considering in all the games he's played, Shasta has only been a wolf like twice. One of which I was a wolf with him and I actually recall that he was fairly active, though perhaps my memory is mistaken since that was a long time ago. Anyway, I find it interesting that you use me as an example of a wolf who wastes a lot of energy on analyses considering I haven't made a single analysis and yet you still suspected me yesterDay.

First off, activity and analyses are two different things. I may be very active as a wolf, but I do less analyses than as an innocent because I rather talk around randomly than wade through the archives to find evidences of guilt that don't exist. But still, as a wolf, I have made analyses, sure. But I didn't claim that a wolf that shares my temperament wouldn't do that, only that it's less likely they do a lot of analyses and Shasta has several analyses this far, some of them in massive scale. I wouldn't do that as a wolf except in exceptional circumstances. Of course I'm not Shasta, but I would assume that a majority of wolves wouldn't "waste" so much energy on analyses (many would, but not a majority).

And I'm using you as an example because I'm still very impressed with one game where you were a wolf and posted an analysis of every single person on Day5 or something and stayed up until very late doing that...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Points against Wilwa:
-Very careful to stay on Nog and Roa's good side
-Attempts to keep Inzil as a viable lynch option while disavowing any attempt of such a thing on her part
-Sudden suspicion of Pitch, considering the timing
-Sets herself up to be able to say "I suspected Pitch" while voting for Boro; possible Mnemo-rescue attempt
-Her "ample reasoning" against Boro is that he "makes her uneasy"-Draws attention to the lack of bandwagoning-motive for her Boro vote
-Faulty logic in #461, regarding Inzil and Pitch
-Flipflops on Pitch after nearly voting him the day before
-Flipflops on Nog after being quite good with him
-Huge qualification regarding Lottie's reveal
-Flipflops again on Pitch in #497
-Rather "pot-calling-kettle" suspicious of Lommy
-Votes for Nienna out of the blue, very bandwagon-like
-Insistent that we don't believe Lottie (this could go either way)

Points for Wilwa:
-Makes a good point about past wolfery not being applicable in present games
-Reasonable defense against Boro in #490
-The wolf-killchoice of Inzil
-Reasonable (if a bit misguided) approach to whether or not to believe Lottie's reveal

My "ample reasoning" was more that I didn't like the way he claimed he's acting like an innocent Boro, and not at all how a Wolf Boro would act, I hate it when people do that. (and I believe you agreed that this was a bad thing). He just seemed to be putting a lot of effort into convincing us that he was acting like he normally would as an innocent, and yes, that made me uneasy. I don't really like being suspected for suspecting Boro, simply because no one else suspects him. And I defended my vote for him so vehemently because I'm tired of my first vote in the game always being seen as suspicious, like really, always.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Less details may mean less likely to get caught, but more details means more likely to be believed.

I agree with this, I have recently falsed revealed in a game and I think my large amount of details is what got me believed for as long as it did. And since her role is a secret role we don't know anything about it, so of course she could give lots of details. If she's a wolf it'd be the perfect thing to false reveal as, and anyone who would counter reveal possibly would not be any more believable. It'd be a gamble, but it's not all that unlikely that she guilty. Again, I'm not saying lets lynch her, but I don't like how quick everyone is to completely believe her, we could all be getting fooled.

I need to check something in the rules, and then I'll be right back...

x'ed with a whole lot of people

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Actually the only thing I've got from this is just the thought that since there are two wolves and two gifteds remaining (aprt from Los) the gifteds would do us a favor by revealing themselves before the last Day, if we happened to only lynch innocents from now on. I can just imagine the Day with five people with the gifteds saying "hi, we are the gifteds" and the wolves saying "no, we are the gifteds" and the poor ordo being left to choose... But anyway, this is not relevant yet, so no need to dwell on that now. I just wanted to mention it.

I think this is a valid idea. And I just went to double check, the Ranger and Hunter can PM each other at Night, so I think them knowing each other's identity would make it way harder for any false reveals, as long as they are both still alive, even then though, still makes it easier. Unless both wovles revealed as one, but I see that as being extremely unlikely.


At this moment I'm pretty sad that I don't really suspect anyone (but dear Boromir of course). And the fact that I'm probably getting lynched today is pretty discouraging, maybe why I'm having a hard time finding anything wrong with anyone. So my plan for the day: discuss any strategies/theories that people bring up, in order to remain useful despite my likely demise, and maybe find someone else to suspect, otherwise just voting for Boro just cause I can. Sidenote: if he's guilty I'm never trusting him again and in advance I'd like to say I told you so.....if he's innocent, well then I just give up on life altogether....

[satansaloser2005]

Why don't you analyze me, Wilwa? It'd take up lots of time and I think you'd enjoy it.


Also, I am in fact at work, hence my silence. Rubbish. I'm telling you, I'm going to have some time at some point to look stuff over and make proper commentary. For now though I'll just have to read through and multi-quote so I don't have to look over everything six times in order to make my comments.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I also know that you like to make big votes at the DL, but so far the suspicious thing is you have been off. I mean even when you go through great efforts to try not to lynch a wolf (*cough* sally and me */cough*) you somehow do it.

Ah, yes... as a gifted in that game, I remember feeling strangely superfluous...

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I agree with this, I have recently falsed revealed in a game and I think my large amount of details is what got me believed for as long as it did. And since her role is a secret role we don't know anything about it, so of course she could give lots of details.

A fair point.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Again, I'm not saying lets lynch her, but I don't like how quick everyone is to completely believe her, we could all be getting fooled.

Why do you say everyone completely believes her? That's not what I'm seeing at all.

EDIT:X'd since Wilwa at 812.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Shasta, how does Inzil's death point at Wilwa's innocence? I could follow your analysis otherwise, but I didn't get that part.

If a Wilwa-wolf was putting in the effort to keep Inzil a viable lynch candidate, why would she then (as a wolf) kill him at night? Just seems odd to me.

Edit: X'ed with Nerwen. Really, I'd much prefer it if that game never happened. Who's with me?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

??? What does this sentence mean? It doesn't make any sense to me.

As a wolf, I would have liked Lottie and you gone the most, but I would have expected the ranger to protect one of you two, which would have made Eomer the better prospect.

What's all this talk about repping?

I said I would rep everyone who would read my entire long post. Since you missed that, you probably didn't read the whole one and no longer qualify.

Wilwa doesn't look very suspicious today anymore. This makes my life more complicated...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The roads are all icy today, and my car's iced up, so I'm not going to class. Lucky you, you get me for a while longer.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Of course I'm not Shasta, but I would assume that a majority of wolves wouldn't "waste" so much energy on analyses (many would, but not a majority).

I disagree. If they have the time, I'd think wolves would want to analyse more. Because with an analysis, they can build a better case against an innocent to get them lynched. Well reasoned votes after an analysis don't get questioned as much as a votes made without providing analysis first.

Originally Posted by Lommy

And I'm using you as an example because I'm still very impressed with one game where you were a wolf and posted an analysis of every single person on Day5 or something and stayed up until very late doing that...

Are you talking about The Republic? I put a lot of effort into that one because I had to survive as a lone wolf for five Days and went to extreme measures to do so. But I also remember a game of Nogrod's where I spent literally all night analysing and by the end of the game had 70-something pages of handwritten notes. And what role was I? An ordo. But at the same time, I know I've also been a lazy wolf. Basically what I'm saying is that if anyone tries to figure me out based on my effort, they won't get anywhere because it frequently changes and mostly has to do with RL. It's also why I try to avoid suspecting/disregarding people for this reason, because surely I'm not the only one who is like this.

I have to run to class and won't be back, so time to go:

++Lommy

If you want reasons, just look through my posts from the past two Days. Sorry, but I really have to go now so I just don't have time to further explain here.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why do you say everyone completely believes her? That's not what I'm seeing at all.

More like a larger number of people then I feel comfortable with. I just think it's odd that as many people as there are would be so against never lynching her, I mean I get that she looks crazy good, and I want so badly to believe her, but there's still a part of me that's paranoid that she's totally fooling us, and I'm just surprised that not everyone is willing to consider that.

x'ed with Brinn

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Again, I'm not saying lets lynch her, but I don't like how quick everyone is to completely believe her, we could all be getting fooled.

Everyone was quick to believe her? Huh? There were extensive efforts to try and disprove her reveal for the timing of her reveal, how up to that point she wasn't making sense in her suspicions, from it being a crazy wolf-strategy to everything in between.

Then she gives us a wolf and there are still doubters, despite there being no counter reveals or no credible reasons beyond "this is a grand conspiratorial wolf-scheme" and we're all being played.

Every detail fits, and trust me on this, wolves can not create such air-tight fake reveals. I'll grant Shasta's point that the more details the better chance of a successful fake reveal, but they can't create something that fits this well.

Let's say you're right wilwa, can you answer why Lottie would give up Pitch? Pitch was basically written off as an innocent, based on Mnemo's vote for him, and Pitch's vote for Mnemo. So why give up Pitch, because he wasn't going to be on anyone's wolf-radar for a while?

Also, as I said to Nog, I don't like anyone saying "I don't want to lynch her today, but if she's not killed in a few days we should" business, because you are providing a great reason the wolves shouldn't kill her. If she is innocent, the wolves aren't going to kill her if everyone is saying we should lynch her if she's not dead in a few days.

I mean seriously, it does no good except to the wolves to continue to doubt Lottie's claim. And there is absolutely no foundation, or logic to even entertain the crazy possibility that she is a wolf. I will entertain the possibility that she hasn't revealed full details of her secret role, but I will speak in this absolute...she's not working for the wolves if she handed us one of them, and one who no one was seriously suspecting.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I think this is a valid idea. And I just went to double check, the Ranger and Hunter can PM each other at Night, so I think them knowing each other's identity would make it way harder for any false reveals, as long as they are both still alive, even then though, still makes it easier. Unless both wovles revealed as one, but I see that as being extremely unlikely.

I don't get this either. I think Lommy is assuming a scenario where there are 5 players left, 2 wolves, 2 gifteds, and one ordo. In that scenario it wouldn't be good for the gifteds to reveal, because the 2 wolves could counter leaving the ordo to choose. If the ordo lynches wrong, it's over the wolves win.

I think Lommy's saying with these numbers it would be good for the Ranger and Hunter to reveal before reaching that point, where the ordo is stuck in a do-or-die situation. The problems are...

There could be restrictions placed on the Ranger and Hunter revealing

If not, I would prefer only the Hunter revealing, because sometimes a known hunter is more dangerous to the wolves than a hidden one. Where a known ranger is just a dead Ranger. The problem here is, they can both PM, so the Hunter may understandably think if he/she reveals this gives up the Ranger to the wolves anyway. So, for the time being let's just let the Hunter and Ranger do what they will. They've done well to stay alive thus far and the benefits of them revealing now (or even tomorrow..etc - again assuming they can with no restrictions) doesn't seem to out weigh the cost of having our gifteds exposed.

We've made good, and wise decisions so far, lets not make a mess of things if we don't have to.

Originally Posted by wilwa

Sidenote: if he's guilty I'm never trusting him again and in advance I'd like to say I told you so.....if he's innocent, well then I just give up on life altogether....

You don't have to worry about the former, or saying anyone "I told you so." As far as the latter..."giving up on life altogether" it looks like you're trying to look for sympathy about how you've been wrong/get suspected all the time for your Day 1 vote, and sympathy does not make you look any better. Trying to pull a Greenie on me?

Let me also say, you're not only suspected for your first vote on me. That is not even my only reason for suspecting you. The fact is, you admitted Mnemo looked bad, but still defended her and then tied the vote between me and her. Look, I'm innocent, you might not like me saying it, but I am and Mnemo wasn't. Sorry, if that makes me suspicious of you.

And that still isn't the only reasons. I agree with Shasta that your vote for Nienna came out of the blue, and your reasons for doubting Lottie's claim were also suspicious. It's not possible for everyone who doubted her to be a wolf, but one of your reasons was because the limitted seer wasn't as exciting as you thought the secret-role was going to be? And now you and Nog still are trying to discredit her innocence because she wasn't killed yesterday, and your reasons today is you think that everyone believed her far too quickly?

Lommy, what's the reason in your change for wilwa? 2 days ago you said you thought her vote looked too clumsy for a wilwa-wolf.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

If a Wilwa-wolf was putting in the effort to keep Inzil a viable lynch candidate, why would she then (as a wolf) kill him at night? Just seems odd to me.

Ok, I see. But I don't think it exonerates her - if her fellows had good reasons for killing him, would she have objected? I don't think so.

Originally Posted by Mac

As a wolf, I would have liked Lottie and you gone the most, but I would have expected the ranger to protect one of you two, which would have made Eomer the better prospect.

Aha. Makes more sense. (I was thinking along the lines "as a wolf, the ranger would do this and that" and I was like what?! ) Lottie is obvious, but why me, though?

I said I would rep everyone who would read my entire long post. Since you missed that, you probably didn't read the whole one and no longer qualify.

I thought I read it all.


edit: xed with Shasta, Brinn, Wilwa and Boro

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Ok, I see. But I don't think it exonerates her - if her fellows had good reasons for killing him, would she have objected? I don't think so.

Don't misunderstand me, . There's a difference between her being exonerated and this being one of the (few) points in her favor. I'd be fine with a Wilwa-vote today.

Now, to look at Mac, or Boro? Either one is going to take forever...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boro

I don't get this either. I think Lommy is assuming a scenario where there are 5 players left, 2 wolves, 2 gifteds, and one ordo. In that scenario it wouldn't be good for the gifteds to reveal, because the 2 wolves could counter leaving the ordo to choose. If the ordo lynches wrong, it's over the wolves win.

I think Lommy's saying with these numbers it would be good for the Ranger and Hunter to reveal before reaching that point, where the ordo is stuck in a do-or-die situation. The problems are...

That's what I meant.

Originally Posted by Boro

Lommy, what's the reason in your change for wilwa? 2 days ago you said you thought her vote looked too clumsy for a wilwa-wolf.

Which vote? Honestly, I can't remember why I changed my mind eventually, but I know why I suspect her. In short, her vote record is bad, her interactions with Mnemo and Pitch look fishy (see my long analysis post yesterDay) and I get a dishonest feel from at least half of her posts.

edit: fixed quote, xed with Shasta

[Thinlómien]

So toDay is going to be a lynch battle between me and Wilwa?

I don't like that.

I don't like that because there really seem to be sort of "camps" on this issue. I don't like it because I can't see why I seem so suspicious to people. I don't like it because I don't want to be lynched.

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So toDay is going to be a lynch battle between me and Wilwa?

I don't like that.

I don't like that because there really seem to be sort of "camps" on this issue. I don't like it because I can't see why I seem so suspicious to people. I don't like it because I don't want to be lynched.

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

If it helps, I'd lynch both of you if we could. Does that make it better?




The recent discussion seems weird to me. I'm not sure if it's just me, but it seems like a lot of talk for the sake of talk. All this "Well, I've changed my mind but not really and I'm still not sure" and the continued coverage of Lottie worries me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm not really seeing what's so suspicious about Lommy, to be perfectly honest. Boro looks better from what he's said today, but his actions in the past still worry me a bit, and Mac is still probably my second-top-suspect due to his interactions with Pitch.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't know why you take it so personally - I said the same logic could be applied against several people, myself included.

There, no need to be so touchy about it. If it comforts you, I suspect Nogrod of all the "veteran loudmouths" by far the most and that would exonerate you and Mac according to this theory...

Afterwards will be a better time to explain, but I'll sum up. It's a combination of feeling bad because I get a pass the first couple days that others do not receive (maybe I shouldn't be open about this, but it has something I've said in private conversation). As a wolf, I love taking full advantage of it, but as an innocent it makes me feel pretty rotten. And the other part about being suspected simply for the fact that I haven't been killed yet. Now, I grant you weren't saying, I must be a wolf now, but if that's all your only reason to suspect me...fine...but that still doesn't mean I'm going to like it.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Which vote? Honestly, I can't remember why I changed my mind eventually, but I know why I suspect her. In short, her vote record is bad, her interactions with Mnemo and Pitch look fishy (see my long analysis post yesterDay) and I get a dishonest feel from at least half of her posts.

Her vote for me:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

The only way you know your theory is correct though is to know wilwa's role. Trying to figure out your theory now will just drive you insane and confuse you.

This is what I was trying to say towards the end on the day Nienna was lynched and people were popping out vaguely suspecting Eomer. Instead of following where the evidence leads (granted we all have to make assumptions about the evidence too, but at least that is based off of "known" info...such as deaths and roles) people have a tendancy to want to drive themselves crazy trying to figure out whether someone (like me) is fooling them, instead of going for the simple route.

The simple route is not always correct (as evidenced with Nienna being innocent), but it is the wisest and overall safer route. Since I've formed such strong opinions on wilwa, knowing her role will reveal a lot to me. I can say the same about Mac or Nerwen, who I have a pretty strong feeling they're innocent, but still wonder if they're fooling me. I can come to more solid conclusions by finding out their role for sure too. To ask a rhetorical question though, do I lynch the person, who will help me figure things out more and who I think is a wolf, or the one who I think is innocent?

If wilwa's a wolf, than everyone piling on her today makes sense as it looks to be an innocently driven bandwagon. If not, then there's still 2 wolves and it has definite wolf inolvement.

Also, it may look "too easy" but it is safer than saying you suddenly don't like voting for wilwa, because you have a theory of being fooled by the veterans (or someone else)...yet you can't possibly know how accurate that theory is until you know for sure about wilwa.

++wilwa

I'm willing to stand by that vote and bet she's a wolf. If not, than I'll accept the consequences. I'm just asking you trust the info, and me, above crap-shoot shot in the dark misgivings about being fooled.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Her vote for me:

By that I forgot to clearly point out your post about it (#539):

Originally Posted by Lommy

Wilwa - I confess I haven't paid her much attention myself, but others have brought up good points against her. If she's guilty, she's quite a good actress but could probably learn a bit more about plotting (the Boro-vote thingy would've been pretty clumsy from a wolf.)

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The fact is, you admitted Mnemo looked bad, but still defended her and then tied the vote between me and her.

Actually I believe all I did was admit that she was acting differently then she had been the day before, but I don't think I said she looked bad, at the time I didn't think she did. And again, no matter who I voted for it would have tied them with Mnemo, and I wasn't going to vote for her when I didn't think she was guilty (cause that's just a bad idea) so really no matter what I would have done it would have made me look bad. I just want you to understand it from where I'm sitting, because of the timing of my vote no matter what way I'd have gone it could have been seen as a bad vote.

And I know how good this whole thing makes Lottie look, and she probably is innocent, but I'm just paranoid. Since it's a secret role a wolf could easily make something up that sounds believable. I have no intention of voting for her or anything, I just don't want her to slip under our radar if there's even the slightest chance she's playing us. That's all I'm saying. Just trying to cover all the bases.

x'ed with Boro x 2, and so it begins...

[Nerwen]

Okay... I'm going to have to vote pretty soon.

I think we really do need to lynch one of the "evil" Day 3 voters; at least we'll get some information that way– at present the whole thing is just a conundrum.

The trouble is that the situation on Day 3, when we lynched Nienna, still pertains– that is, there's a number of more-or-less equally guilty-looking people, some of whom are not wolves, and depending on how things go, the real wolves may be able to nudge the lynch the way they want pretty easily.

Oh well. Can't be helped.

EDIT:X'd with two Boros and Wilwa.

[Nerwen]

Well, of the people I've been thinking about, Shasta and Lommy are looking less guilty, Sally and Wilwa more so.

I mean, sorry to keep harping on the "Lynch Lottie" business, but come on... the argument basically comes down to– "unless we lynch her by a certain, agreed-upon interval, she'll become a mighty unlynchable super-being, for... some reason..." As I can't see that this line of thought is helpful to anyone but the wolves, the people pushing it aren't looking good to me. (This applies to Nogrod, too, though I don't see enough reason to vote him now.)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay... I'm going to have to vote pretty soon.

I think we really do need to lynch one of the "evil" Day 3 voters; at least we'll get some information that way– at present the whole thing is just a conundrum.

The trouble is that the situation on Day 3, when we lynched Nienna, still pertains– that is, there's a number of more-or-less equally guilty-looking people, some of whom are not wolves, and depending on how things go, the real wolves may be able to nudge the lynch the way they want pretty easily.

Oh well. Can't be helped.

It is a mighty conundrum, but how many times do wolves get close to the noose one day only to be dropped from suspicion for some reason the next? I would rather know for sure about one of those "evil" Day 3 voters, than just drop suspicion on them out of paranoia that it looks too easy. And consider the benefits of being correct (another wolf down) and the cost of being wrong.

If we are wrong, at least we made a logical and wise lynch based on sound reasons which have less of a chance of turning out to be a crippling lynch than deciding we drop the suspicion on them and go for conspiracy theories about someone double or triple bluffing.

Now, I have looked at all the wolf kills, and I don't have the time to specifically point out their posts, but I'll summarize what I've written down.

Inzil's strongest suspect for two days, I would say was Mac. He suspected Mac for Mac's quick jump on the Boro-versy (good word Inzil ). On Day 2 he backed away Mac, but this looked like a forced decision from Inzil to try to consider other people. Which he wound up primarily suspecting Mnemo and Lottie...said Nog was a puzzle, he had some misgivings about me, and voted for Lottie.

Greenie on Day 1 was most wary of Mnemo, Morsul and Nog. Wound up voting for Mnemo.
Day 2 she thought Boro, Mac, Brinn, and Lommy were good. Still wary of Mnemo, found Pitch too agreeable and Nog was back to normal, but she was still unsure.
Day 3 is an interesting one, because she is now most wary of Eomer, Pitch, and sally. Unsure of Brinn, Nienna, and Nog.

I say interesting because she was pretty much after Mnemo from the start, and then on Day 3 Pitch moved from unsure, to being wary. Greenie was killed before Lotties revealed...is it safe to assume they thought Greenie had a special-seer role, with her suspicion against 2 now known wolves? I think we can say by killing her when she moved Pitch to the "wary" category they didn't think she was the hunter.

Eomer I haven't looked at as in depth as Inzil and Pitch. But what does stand out is his stance, that he didn't think there was wolf-on-wolf amongst the Mnemo voters, and concentrated on those who tried to save her. By his saying the next day that he was happy with the Nienna lynch (even though it turned out she was innocent), maybe the wolves thought Eomer would continue to focus on those who supported Mnemo.

Now, off the top of my head Brinn and I both raised our disagreements with Eomer, but that was because we gave more credence to the wolf-on-wolf voting than Eomer was considering (at the time). As it turns out at least one wolf did vote for Mnemo, there is a possibility of another. However, it is interesting that Eomer is the one who winds up killed, there is several "expressed shocks" about it, and also to recall one of Lommy's points from Day 2. Mnemo had just as many defenders as she did attackers.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

"unless we lynch her by a certain, agreed-upon interval, she'll become a mighty unlynchable super-being, for... some reason..."

I just died laughing.

Shasta - died of mirth, mid-Day 5

Edit: X'ed with Boro.

[Nogrod]

Interesting...

I would still say that the way Bes tried to reason us lynching Lottie before she had time to have a possibility to dream and come up with something we could consider looks wolvish, at least taking your "simple way through" approach Boro. It's interesting you don't consider Bes at all.

Also the way Wilwa has defended herself feels a bit wrong to me. It looks like she's trying to give up an impression of being innocent... but that she's overdoing it.

I'm not too happy with Mac either... or let's put it this way: I'm very uncomfortable with him as I kind of see him as a monomaniac on a crucade rather than a fair-minded innocent trying to get a hold of things in general.

Although to be honest I have to say that if he were a wolf there would have been an astounding amount of wolf-on-wolf voting in the first Days which I find a bit unbelievable. I mean you never know how much risks or what kind of show-offs wolves might wish to make but that lot of cross-voting between the wolves would be just meaningless and very risky indeed. Though let us not forget that we have no seer in this game and that might affect the boldness of the wolves.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boro

It's a combination of feeling bad because I get a pass the first couple days that others do not receive (maybe I shouldn't be open about this, but it has something I've said in private conversation).

If it helps you, I have lately been giving passes only for Day1 and only for first-timers and people who haven't played for a long time.

I can kind of see where Boro is coming from with his "we must lynch Wilwa now" speech, and currently it seems like the best option too. However, I don't think people should always try to get their top suspect lynched: often you find out later they're actually not that bad or someone else is more guilty. I don't like it either how he pressures on Wilwa getting lynched, but that's more like a principle thing than actually disagreeing with him about her.

And I'm still going to have a look at my theory, but it doesn't prevent me from seriously considering voting Wilwa toDay, especially if I'm the other option for lynch. I feel slightly heartless by saying this, but we can afford losing an innocent toDay (and yes I'm aware this applies to me too, but of course I'd rather not die).

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not too happy with Mac either... or let's put it this way: I'm very uncomfortable with him as I kind of see him as a monomaniac on a crucade rather than a fair-minded innocent trying to get a hold of things in general.

This doesn't exactly come as a surprise. Nog, most of what the two of you have been saying has been "Mac/Nog must be a wolf!!", with you also throwing in some "we'd better kill Lottie"s and one "please bold names". We get the point. Could you maybe get out of your little rut and say something new? Even if you're right and Mac is a wolf, there's another one out there. How about looking for them? Your last post was better. Keep it up.

Mac, this goes for you, too.

EDIT: xed with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Love your attitude, Loslote.

[Nerwen]

Okay, don't let's all vote for the same person.

++Sally.

What with seeming to know Nienna was innocent after she was done for but before her role was announced, and her "secret-role-that's-forbidden-to-reveal" theory, and her rushing to say how astonished she was by Eomer's death– I think she looks about as bad as Wilwa, anyway.

[Nogrod]

There's Juventus - Bayern München on telly right now and I'm torn between the match and the game...

Originally Posted by Lottie

Could you maybe get out of your little rut and say something new?

And it's actually me you're addressing with this? Of all the people I'm the one who says nothing new? We must live in some parallel universes...

Well to continue where I left... I'm getting a bit bad vibes from Boro as well looking at all that rambling about himself being not suspected for the right reasons and suspected for the wrong ones... or how secure he seems to be with his theories. I mean let's remember the wolves can be confident about their views but for innocents it's rare treat to be able to be that assured about one's own conclusions.

Also he makes a nice back-pedalling there saying that if he's wrong he has still acted in a logical and innocent manner. Kind of brings back to my mind the first Days when he was all the time saying how he can't be a wolf as a Boro-wolf would not act like he acted.