The Midsummer Maulings (WW5)

[mormegil]

Currently I would rather vote for Durelin as I mentioned earlier. We have an interesting dynamic in this game where a clear majority needs to be reached. So bandwagoning isn't alltogether a bad thing. But her approach wasn't explained so I see some suspicion in Holby. I will probably vote for either Holby or Kitanna who I have mentioned before as well. Holby is new on my list but Fea's arguement actual does make some sense .

As for Kitanna's vote for me it's a bit odd and weak evidence at best. At that stage odds are you could pick anybody at random and say they are innocent and be correct. I, however, never stated definatively that Gil1 was innocent but that there is doubt in my mind as to his guilt and I'm giving him the benefit of that doubt. I want to preserve and innocents life and I'm accused based on that...

Well I shall be back soon and give my vote. Again I'd prefer Durelin today but seemingly the tide is going elsewhere.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

TGWBS: Huh?

Now the million dollar question: if I change my vote, will I be accused of wolvish association with Fea?

Probably. After all, I've already "slipped" in telling everyone I'm a wolf. In all seriousness right here: I just want you to remember that I'm not at all certain on Holby. There's an extremely good chance that all my seemingly shoddy evidence is just that: shoddy. But she's the one I suspect most. After her, it would probably be Mormegil. After him (and weirdly enough, I agree with him on this one), it would be Durelin. Morm could be a very clever werewolf hiding himself in plain sight. If he's a wolf, he's probably laughing his head off because so many people suspect him, but nobody's doing anything. On the other hand, if he's innocent, he's probably not laughing, and is probably thinking "Thank God they aren't voting for me. That would seriously shorten this game."

[the guy who be short]

TGWBS: Huh?

Let me try to explain better.

Say that all the villagers think Feanor () seems guilty. However, every member thinks somebody else seems even more guilty than Feanor. TGWBS thinks durelin is guiltier than Feanor, but think mormegil is innocent. Kath thinks mormegil seems guiltier than Feanor, but thinks durelin is innocent.

Normally, in this scenario, TGWBS would vote for durelin and Kath for mormegil. Votes would be spread out. Even though there was very real suspicion of Feanor in all minds, nobody votes for her.

It seems that a lot of us think Kitanna seems guilty, and I am certainly one of them. I believe durelin seems guilter than her, but have compromised and voted Kitanna instead, as a greater number of villagers think she is likely to be a wolf.

Comprendrez?

Additionally, this makes it hard for wolves to "point fingers" at one another as they often do, because as soon as they make an accusation, that person has one more "point," and so is more likely to be voted for by consensus and compromise.

The flaw I see with my plan is that all four wolves could name an innocent as a suspect so we could see this innocent lynched as a result. However, for the moment, I am still willing to compromise with the death of Kitanna.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Additionally, this makes it hard for wolves to "point fingers" at one another as they often do, because as soon as they make an accusation, that person has one more "point," and so is more likely to be voted for by consensus and compromise.

You realize that if the wolves decide to sacrifice one of their own, your plan is shot?

[mormegil]

I've thought about it a lot and reviewed the posts. While I am still highly suspicious of Kitanna and now Holbytlass I think I am going to vote for the person I find the greatest amount of evidence that she is a wolf.

++DURELIN

I realize that a consensus would help us out but I think that Kitanna is contributing more to our theories (even though I'm her suspect) than Durelin. Also Durelin's quick change and poor me approach raised many red flags that I think need to be addressed. I'm not willing to let her fly under the radar any longer. I suggest those who have voted for others look at changing their vote to Durelin. We can look long and hard at both Kitanna, Holbytlass, myself et al tomorrow. I vote Durelin and hope I am not wrong about her.

[the guy who be short]

You realize that if the wolves decide to sacrifice one of their own, your plan is shot?

Who cares? The point is about getting a wolf now. If they sacrifice one of their own at this stage, I don't really care, because we're still getting that wolf and preventing us from dealing with horrible odds tomorrow.

Mormegil: durelin does indeed look suspicious, and unless something changes, I for one will be pushing for her lynching tomorrow. As you said, though, consensus is quite vital at this stage.

Kitanna still has a majority of votes, and I don't think that's changing. However, if you think Holby looks more wolfy than Kitanna, be tactical and vote for her! She has a chance of being lynched, at least. I don't think a vote for durelin at this point will have any effect.

To clarify: I don't want to implement the plan I have laid out below tomorrow due to the two big gaping holes in it. I simply think it's better to use it now, for one day, to bag us that werewolf.

[mormegil]

As it stands now


Kath: 1
Mormegil:1
Gil-Galad: 1
Durelin: 1
Holbytlass: 2
Kitanna: 4

Only one person hasn't voted yet...Oro. So without people changing their votes no clear majority will be reached. We have around one hour (I think) to make our decision. While I am reluctant to change my vote but willing if need arises. It seems that need is arising. I am still torn on who to vote between our front runners Holby and Kitanna. I will review a bit more and come to a decision soon. I am open to discussion on who I should change to, if I change at all, but most likely I will. I know that suspicion will be garnered due to a change, but I'd rather get somebody we all feel is guilty than have somebody killed at random.

[the guy who be short]

morm, according to the most recent rules, an overall majority is not required, so Kitanna will still be killed unless some people change their votes.

It seems likes Kitanna will die. If she is a wolf, I will most probably be slain during the night. If she is innocent, our odds will be horribly reduced and I shall be spared so that I may be lynched during the Day.

Tomorrow, I would like to Seer to openly declare their dreams to date. At night, the Guardian must protect the Seer.
If the Seer dreams of a wolf, everybody should obviously lynch the wolf.
If the Seer dreams of an innocent, people know not to vote for the innocent. Additionally, the wolves will be forced to kill the known innocent during the night, thereby stopping them from killing the Guardian.
If the Seer dreams of the Hunter, they should use their judgement. If they think the Hunter has good judgement, declare the Hunter to be innocent. The wolves will then kill the Hunter during the night, and the Hnter will kill somebody to go with them. Hopefully this will be a wolf. If the Seer considers the Hunter to have poor judgement, do what you will.
If the Seer dreams of the Guardian, say nothing. The Guardian is who the plan revolves around. If the Guardian is slain, the Seer dies the next day. However, even this is permissable, as the Seer will have one more night to dream.

I've thought that plan through. If anybody sees flaws, please tell us as quickly as possible.
Should Kitanna be innocent, the plan must be implemented. Should Kitanna be a wolf, the need is less dire, but it would be helpful all the same.

[mormegil]

It's a desperate plan but I think it's the best we have for our desperate situation. It would give us a good idea who either the wolves are or who some innocents are. Two drawbacks. We loose the seer the next night but get some good knowledge from him/her. If either seer or guardian are killed the whole plan crumbles. Would it be worth the risk for the seer to declare him/herself tomorrow if the guardian dies tonight?

I will change my vote...after reading it through and checking back posts I'm as convinced of Holby as I am Durelin. Kitanna's a close third but I think we can wait for the seer to dream of her tonight and hopefully disclose her identity tomorrow.

--Durelin

++Holbytlass

[mormegil]

Kath: 1
Mormegil:1
Gil-Galad: 1
Holbytlass: 3
Kitanna: 4

Oro still hasn't voted.

[Holbytlass]

For the good of the village, and since TGWBS's plan is good (as good as any) and since we don't know if Oro will be able to vote and since I don't know if Kittana is gifted or not, I only know about me.

--KITTANA
++HOLBYTLASS

I am allowed to commit suicide. Goodluck, think better of me

[Orominuialwen]

Well, at this point it doesn't seem to really matter what my suspicions are, but for the record, I find both Kitanna and Holbytlass fishy. I'd been agonizing over which way to vote, but it seems that I now have a clear reason to vote for one of them. It would be much better to vote for one of the people I find suspicious and have a possible wolf get lynched than vote for anybody else and greatly increase the chances of killing an innocent through a tie. Only the wolves would relish that. In fact, that makes me wary of morm. Did he change his vote hoping that I too would vote for Holbytlass, thus causing a tie, which would probably kill an innocent and save Kitanna? Could her suspicions of him all be a bluff in order to distance the wolvish pair? I don't have the answers, but I'll take the possibility of lynching a wolf over the probability of killing an innocent and vote ++Kitanna.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

--Holbytlass!!!

Due to something that I've only just realized, I cannot in good conscience kill Holbytlass. She slipped something earlier that caught my attention, but I had assumed it was a wolf bluff.

I put forth my idea of werewolf hunting

or something to that effect. Now that she is willing to kill herself, either she is a wolf who is trying to secure a random lynching, or she is the Huntress, and she has a target. I am leaning towards the idea that she is Huntress, and we cannot afford to kill a gifted villager when the ratio of wolves to villagers is so slim. Most especially when we cannot be sure of the Huntress's target. It would be absolutely disastrous if two innocents were accidentally slain because of my faulty evidence. I hesitated to post my reasoning for changing my vote, because I am afraid of what the wolves will now do, but given what she has so publicly done (voted for herself), I am sure I am not the only one who just swore colorfully.

I have to change my vote and go with the crowd on this: ++Kitanna. I would vote my true suspicion, Mormegil, but I am terrified to see the result of a tied vote, most especially between three people, where I highly suspect that one takes out someone with her.

[Firefoot]

I think we can now be fairly certain that Holbytlass is innocent - we were about to lynch Kitanna, and if Holbytlass were a wolf, I think it would be likely that Kitanna would be innocent because why would a wolf sacrifice herself? If Kitanna were innocent, a wolf wouldn't do that anyway, and if Kitanna were a wolf we would know that, too.

We have:

1 Guardian
1 Hunter
1 Seer
4 Wolves
4 Ordinary Villagers

The two we really need to protect here are the Guardian and Seer; we have twice as good a shot of killing a werewolf than one of them. The hunter would kill one other person anyway.

I do not see that it is at all in our interest to lynch an innocent villager at this point. Holbytlass could be a wolf living on the edge, but I highly doubt it. Hence, --Holbytlass, ++Kitanna.

(I don't see anything that says I can't change my vote twice. )

Edit: I see Fea has gone the same way I have...

Edit II: Kitanna now has 6 votes - there's no turning back now...

[Mithalwen]

Pause while Mithalwen double checks

[Mithalwen]

Kath has not voted

[Mithalwen]

Voting stays open +injury time (Me checking.)

[mormegil]

Kath did vote here in post 112 .

[Mithalwen]

Sorry just found it...

For future please put votes on a separate line ... my poor dead eyes are struggling

[Mithalwen]

However Kit has only 5 votes by my reckoning
Holby has 3
Morm, gil and Kath 1 each

[Mithalwen]

Due to Firefoots wrong call Voting will stay open until 7.30

[mormegil]

Did you get Firefoot's change in 134? and Fea's in 133? I believe I am the only person left voting Holbytlass and they switched from her to Kitanna.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Todays votes (I promise they're accurate):

1 vote for Gil-Galad
1 vote for Mormegil
1 vote for Kath
2 votes for Holby
6 votes for Kitanna

Kitty looks to be lynched, m'lady mod.

[Mithalwen]

OK So I missed the double shuffle...... Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Firefoot....anyway

NEW RULE PUT YOUR VOTES ON A SEPARATE LINE OR DIE ....

Who decided retractable votes were a good idea?

Oh that was me...


I usually earn my corn doing Accounts and bear in mind there is only one accountancy joke.

What's 2+2?
What do you want it to be?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Todays votes (I promise they're accurate):

1 vote for Gil-Galad
1 vote for Mormegil
1 vote for Kath
2 votes for Holby
6 votes for Kitanna

Kitty looks to be lynched, m'lady mod.

It's merely semantics but there are 7 votes for Kitanna

TGWBS
Gil
Kath
Holbytlass
Firefoot
Fea
Oro

and one for Morm, Kath,Gil and Holybtlass

[Mithalwen]

Whole I no longer dispute the result

The vote on my umpteenth check is

Kitanna:

Firefoot
Fea
TGWBS
Gil
Kath
Oro

Holbytlass

Mormegil
Holbytlass

Mormegil

Kitanna

Gil Galad
Nilp

Kath

Durelin


The bloodthirsty need only wait a few moments.

[Mithalwen]

All through the day arguments had raged and despite Holbytlass's noble attempt to lay down her life to save her, the mob would not be assuaged. The feisty former hot dog saleswoman and lingerie buyer turned bailiff was doomed.

A few of the villagers hung back but there were enough certain to make what happened inevitable and they dragged her to the gallows and put the noose about her neck.

Just before they released her the words she had used earlier in an attempt to save her skin rang out:

"So go ahead and lynch me, but you're not going even the scores with the wolves"

Her body fell there was a swift crack, Kitanna's body jerked, there were a few soft thuds and a louder "plink" as items fell from her pockets. Then nothing.

The lynch mob got closer. After last night they weren't taking any chances after last night. But it was clear she was completely dead, she had ceased to be, she had joined the choir eternal and very shortly her mortal remains would lie in a grave alongside those of Mithalwen and Oddwen (the later was not particularly large as there had not been so much left to bury alas).

On the ground were a handful of sugar plums and a scrying glass.

Kitanna had not only been innocent. She had been the seer.

Night has fallen. It lasts until 8pm tomorrow unless I hear from all necessary parties sooner .

Guardian

Wolves

Hunter (please - just in case it would be helpful to know who you will take with you in the event of your death)

[Mithalwen]

Wolves 4 Villagers 6.

[Mithalwen]

Day dawned rather earlier thatn expected in Midsomer Mawlin and the villagers awoke to a new horror. Well it was new to five of them, to four it would have been familiar and the tenth - well they had gained intimate knowledge of the horror... but they weren't going to be able to tell anyone about it.

On the village green by the gallows was a tall tank with a number of unbelievably fat piranha fish burping as they basked in relatively shallow water. On teh surface floated a homburg hat that everyone recognised as belonging to Durelin. They ran to her cottage - decorated with an interesting mixture of gallic and oriental influences - and found neau trace erv their fellow villager. The did find teaumes of arcane knowledge on lycanthropy and papers with complicated calculations.

Durelin had been trying to protect them but had been unable to protect herself.

Wolves 4 Villagers 5. Enoeuf said?

Dead

Mithalwen - Killed by wolves
Gil-Galad(1)- Lynched
Oddwen- Killed by wolves
Kitanna (Seer) - Lynched
Durelin (Guardian)- Killed by wolves

Living

Mormegil
Firefoot
Feanor
Holbytlass
TGWBS
Gil-Galad (2)
Kath
Orominuialwen
Nilpaurion Felagund.

Day ends at 1.45pm tomorrow unless a clear majortiy (5) is reached before.

Please make you votes on a separate line and do not hide them in a paragraph.

Thank you

[Gil-Galad]

well now...this is looking like a massacre too me...

[the guy who be short]

And the plan is in fetters.

I shall be back to post shortly. I have very conclusive evidence against mormegil. I shall be voting for him next post, as well as giving reasoning for his guilt and defending what appears to be an accusation against me.

[Gil-Galad]

hmmm...Durelin is dead and the two people that voted againest him were Mormegil and Kath! maybe they are werewolves wanting to get rid of him?...makes me think...

[Firefoot]

No seer, and no guardian, and only a one person advantage over the wolves. All the villagers will need to vote for the same wolf for this to work.

Having since gone through the thread again, one thing that I've noticed is that our seer Kitanna seemed quite certain that Morm was a wolf. This may be our best bet for catching a wolf.

I think that we can be quite certain as well that Holbytlass is innocent, else she would not have changed her vote to herself when an innocent was about to die.

We should also be looking at who Durelin's partner the hunter may have been. The more innocents that we can figure on, the better our chances of catching a wolf will be.

[the guy who be short]

So it begins.

Originally Posted by Kitanna on day one

Yes, mormegil, are you afraid of Holbytlass learning something about you? Something dangerous and possibly deadly?

She voices suspicion of mormegil. She is to dream of him that night.

Day two:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'm not sure how I can put this, but I will try. Morm says he'll give Gil the benefit of the doubt and that "he is an inexperienced innocent" and then it turns out Gil (the first that is) really was an innocent. Maybe Morm was telling the truth and thought Gil was innocent. Or maybe he knew something the rest of us didn't. This could all be a coinedence or Morm just slipped in his keeping his identity a secret. I can't say for sure, at this point I will say I'm still suspcious of Morm as I was yesterday.

Here she identifies morm as her chief suspect.
Later:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I have a bad feeling about Morm, one which I can't quite explain. It was probably a coinedence, but I'm still watching him a little closer now.

A bad feeling? A dream.

Her last post:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I may not be the brightest penny in the fountain, but I know when something's not right and something is not right with morm.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

So I can up with a few theories about him and Kath
1) They're both wolves....
2) They have a werewolf/mythomaniac relationship....

I think her use of the word theory shows that Kath's guilt is not definite at all.

I'm not waiting any longer.

++mormegil

Now, on to other things.
In her last post, strangely, Kitanna accuses me. Fea says we should keep me around, to which Kitanna replies:

And that'll be the death of you all...

. However, I say this was pure speculation. She saw me as the ringleader in killing G-G1, which I was, and the ringleader in accusing her and durelin, which I was. She therefore thought I was a wolf.
I think Kitanna dreamt of durelin on night one, which is how she came to this conclusion.
In any case, Kitanna did not, unfortunately, explicitly defend anybody, so we have no known innocents.

The deaths. These are to frame me. I was the ringerleader in lynching G-G, as I said, and I was wrong. I was the ringleaderin lynching Kitanna, and I was wrong. I was most suspicious of durelin, and once again, I was wrong.
The wolves chose to kill durelin to frame me, this is clear. "Look, all ye people! TGWBS wanted to kill three innocents!"
All I can say is, I have erred, and I am sorry. Twice I have lead us into utter ruin. The third time pays for all. Consider the above evidence, and vote wisely.

I shall return soon to post an analysis of durelin's and mormegil's posts. By the way, G-G, durelin's a she.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++Mormegil,

I suggest explaining yourself. Now. Though I doubt it will change my mind about the fact that you're a sneaky, vicious, bloody WOLF.

[Firefoot]

++Mormegil

I was coming to some of the same conclusions as TGWBS even as he posted them. I don't think there can be a lot of doubt...

[Holbytlass]

Okay, now to explain myself....

I was fine with Kittana getting it at first, I voted for her early on.
But Mormegil has been nagging in the back of my mind since day one, but how can I doubt him when he and I had ideas along the same line. When I got a quick look I saw her and I were pretty close, than I saw TGWBS's plan. And for some reason it clicked. I didn't have time to get evidence against Morm but I knew I could save Kittana by voting myself, better a regular villager than a maybe gifted villager. I'm sorry that stupid wording of mine made a couple people change their votes.

++MORMEGIL

[Firefoot]

(Note: this is based on Mormegil's guilt, which remains to be officially proven.)

I am starting to wonder whether TGWBS hasn't done a fantastic job of covering his tracks. He and Morm have done some light accusing of each other, about the right amount for two werewolves who don't want to be associated with each other. However, TGWBS has also done some defending of Morm. This is one of two things: a) a wolvish slip or b) innocent confusion and genuine desire to only lynch innocents. I do wonder if his accusations of Morm are a huge bluff - point out one (now fairly obvious) wolf and thereby clear himself. Then there is Kitanna's comment to wonder about - did she dream about him, or was it just suspicion? If - this is a big if - TGWBS was a wolf, he would be playing an extremely tenuous bluffing game, but I have little doubt that he could pull it off.

I just wanted to put this out there, since the day seems likely to be a short one and in case I should be mauled tonight. I have no idea how much truth is in this; he may be an innocent and a very helpful one at that. I couldn't tell you.

Edit - one more point I left off. TGWBS found it necessary to point out in his very first post that he was "obviously innocent." Hmm...

[mormegil]

In post 87 Kitanna admits openly that her suspicions of me are mere speculation. She states that it’s nothing concrete so she obviously didn’t dream about me.

Post 95 Kitanna admits she is a moron. I don’t believe her to be such but apparently she lacks confidence in herself and her ideas. In the same thread she admitted that she had Gil-Galad pegged down as guilty which we know isn’t true. Point is the seer is not infallible and just because she suspects somebody doesn’t make them a wolf.

In post 118 she knew she was probably going to die and how did she word her decision to vote for me? “I’m going to stick my foot further in my mouth”. That to me doesn’t sound like somebody who is sure of herself. The only reason she gave to vote for me is because I gave Gil the benefit of the doubt and my suspicions of Kath have been put on the back burner due to others who I find more suspicious now. My defense for why I voted Kath and not Gil I have previously explained in post 121 . Many others have changed their minds on who to vote for. I wrote off Gil’s behavior to an overzealous innocent with a general lack of experience. I was correct many others weren’t. If deducing innocence and guilt is a cause for suspicion we may as well roll over and die and let the wolves take over.

As far as my vote for Kath and lowering my suspicions of her I have explained that briefly but will do so in a bit more detail. When yesterday started I kept my eye on her and waited to see what she would do. Then I found some rather large areas of suspicion in Durelin and others. Shortly after some suspicious behavior was pointed out by Fea regarding Holbytlass. Now as TGWBS and I discussed consensus was important at this stage. Holbytlass had garnered some votes so I felt more confident in voting for her than Durelin, hoping that other might change their votes. I was still under the impression, until TGWBS pointed it out otherwise, that we needed a overall majority of 6 to ensure the lynching. Again I found Holbytlass and Durelin more suspicious than Kitanna and I was correct again in presuming innocence. Would that others had followed my lead and not lynched Kitanna. Holbytlass whether innocent or guilty is not as important to us as our precious seer is. Firefoot and Fea were rather Fickle in the matter and should be examined closely.

It is puzzling to me that after TGWBS put out a plan to protect the seer Kitanna didn’t openly proclaim herself. Would we have believed her? I’m not sure, but if I were the seer and knew that I was heading for the gallows I would say with no room for doubt that I dreamt of so and so and he/she is guilty or innocent. She did neither. But merely suggested that she didn’t have a good feeling about me. If that alone isn’t enough evidence not to lynch me automatically then please read carefully

I’m not saying don’t kill me today but don’t make it a rash decision based on inconclusive evidence from our seer. Look back at my actions and decide for yourself if they are suspicious or if I have been a contributing member to out village. I do not make it a habit to defend myself with great zeal but I found it necessary to prepare this during NIGHT so that I could have it ready at the start of the day, knowing that the wolves won’t want such an easy target out of the way for today’s lynchings.

Now I see that TGWBS is saying this

Now, on to other things.
In her last post, strangely, Kitanna accuses me. Fea says we should keep me around, to which Kitanna replies:
Quote:

. However, I say this was pure speculation. She saw me as the ringleader in killing G-G1, which I was, and the ringleader in accusing her and durelin, which I was. She therefore thought I was a wolf.
I think Kitanna dreamt of durelin on night one, which is how she came to this conclusion.
In any case, Kitanna did not, unfortunately, explicitly defend anybody, so we have no known innocets

I can see that he also see that perhaps what was said by Kitanna is true speculation. Look at him closely too please.

I'm also surprised at how willing everybody is to kill me without so much as hearing anything I have to say. Wolfish behavior is afoot here.

[Kath]

Durelin is dead and the two people that voted againest him were Mormegil and Kath

No Gil2, I voted for Kitanna.

On to today, TGWBS has some seriously good accusations against Morm and after the revelation that Kitanna was in fact the Seer a read back over her posts does show some things in a different light. I find it hard to argue with any of what he (TGWBS) has said but I think it would be fair for us to listen to what Mormegil has to say first. However, if he can't explain himself in a way that makes sense and shows someone else as a wolf with good reasons then I will not hesitate to vote for him.