Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Don't think it's wolvishly cruel of me to say this, but if both Eomer and SpM are innocent I will not be able to stop myself from laughing at the absurdity of it all (from beyond the grave, of course).

Yes that would be rather ironic wouldn't it.

Now, I have yet to make up my mind in this whole debate of Eomer and SpM. I don't know if one is guilt, both are guilty or neither are guilty. However I would like to add another name to the mix. The person I strongly feel is a wolf is Alcarillo. I would like to see voting close between all 3 candidates for today. But it's appearing that Eomer is in the lead currently. My gut tells me that it's highly unlikely that there isn't a wolf among these three so

++ALCARILLO

[Boromir88]

And what's this? Boromir88 votes for Eomer and offers no reason!~Eomer

Aye, but I did offer a reason. You just have to look for it. As I said in post 161

I got a bad feeling about Eomer, if you want to know scrounge through posts yesterday and try to find it. I wish to not incriminate anyone.

Don't you know also, if you do turn out to be innocent we know who two wolves are.

Now, I have yet to make up my mind in this whole debate of Eomer and SpM. I don't know if one is guilt, both are guilty or neither are guilty.~mormegil

I think tomorrow's death will shed more light on the matter. I agree in what you said earlier that if Eomer does turn out to be a wolf we shouldn't automatically say Sauce and Cailin are innocent. Depending on who's killed next by the wolves, will shed more light on whether they are both innocent, both guilty, or one-one.

The person I strongly feel is a wolf is Alcarillo.

It would appear so, but it just seems to obvious and you have to ask would a wolf be that obvious? Only two reasons can explain Alcarillo's voting behavior, he's an innocent convinced by argument, doesn't have a lot of time to get on, so can't really come up with anything, or he's a wolf. I just don't think a wolf would be this obvious, but you have to question it.

[wilwarin538]

I suppose its voting time then. I personaly am not suspicious of SpM, and only slightly of 'Mer. Since I was only really suspicious of Perky beofre now there isn't really anyone I have been suspicious of before now. So I will vote for:

++Alcarillo

Mainly because there isn't any one else I could think to vote for and I don't want to get on the Eomer bandwaggon incase he is innocent. I would rather not give myself more suspicion by doing so.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Who could possibly vote for Eomer? He's so loveable...

I'll take my death for the good of the village, though. Think better of me if it turns out that way. At least I recognise that the village will be in extremely good stead tomorrow.

I dislike admitting to stupidity but I don't understand you Boromir. I know it sounds like it's dangerous for anyone to press you on your reasoning but I really don't realise why you're voting for me. Couldn't you be more straight-forward and gladden my heart just a little bit? If not then don't. The wolves will be scrabbling for clues everywhere.

And to ease my situation somewhat, I am now going to spend what seems likely to be my last few hours at a ceilidh. I'll try and have fun.

Until next time...

[Márcolië Lamen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'll take my death for the good of the village, though. Think better of me if it turns out that way. At least I recognise that the village will be in extremely good stead tomorrow.

Assuming you are innocent, a death of an innocent for the good of the village? Doesn't make sense.

I would be voting for Eomer now but I'm afraid of bandwagoning... so instead I'll hold off on voting to see if another innocent vote would be needed for strategy of weeding out the wolves.

[The Saucepan Man]

I know that I am usually one for spreading out the votes, but I would suggest that those villagers who are innocent cast their vote either for Eomer or for me. Because, if neither of us is eliminated, we are going to go through this whole Eomer v SpM thing again to-Morrow. And, if to-Day's lynchee turns out to be innocent, you cannot afford to make a mistake to-Morrow.

To-Day, you can afford to make a mistake. That mistake would be to vote for me, but at least it would point you in the right direction for to-Morrow. So, I would rather that you cast your vote for me than for someone who may well turn out to be innocent and then have to go through this whole thing again to-Morrow. Of course, I would advise you to vote for Eomer, but it is for you to make up your minds.

I think that it's a fairly safe bet, from your point of view, that either Eomer or SpM is a Wolf, so I would counsel you to choose between us.

Incidentally, I would not be quite so forthright in offering this advice if I strongly suspected Alcarillo, the only other candidate for lynching who has been put forward so far to-Day. But I have no reason to strongly suspect Alcarillo, other than for his quietness. And that's a trait shared by a number of villagers. I would regard a vote for Alcarillo to-Day as risky.

[Formendacil]

Curious...

By his suggestion here that this be a two-way race, Saucepan Man is either very craftily and wolfishly saving his own skin, while pretending to look innocent, knowing that the wind is blowing Eomer's way. On the other hand, it could be an honest attempt to help straighten things out, and lead to a victory by us villagers over the Werewolves...

I am still not decided as to which way to vote, but I agree that we should keep it between Saucepan Man and Eomer, for the sake of simplifying tomorrow's ramifications.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

AbercrombieofRohan - Someone who has not attracted much suspicion yet, but we should not forget about. She did not vote the first day, but claimed she would have voted Perky (not really such a great excuse now, huh?) and steadily votes for Perky the next day.

Ahem, read again Cailin, I voted for articstorm.

Abercrombie-not attracted much suspision, which is the main reason I'm suspicious of her, either as a ex-cursed, or as a wolf. I wouldn't find Abercrombie suspicious except for it seems like the wolves are always who you least expect. I'll give her the benefit of the doubt for now though.

I would call your attention to this:

Day 1:

Eomer and AbercrombieOfRohan both jumped on Formendacil's case, after Saucepan Man mentioned his suspicions of him. Are they werewolves trying to subtly lead the village into lynching an innocent?-Cailin

Abercombie also seems to have been following along with my train of thought to an extent. This unnerves me, since I am worried that one or both of them may be trying to identify themselves with me. -SPM

You said that you do not trust me because I am an asset to the Village and because I seem to be trying to weed out the Wolves. An innocent mistake - or a Freudian slip? -SPM

Well, if they don't vote, I shall expect explanations from Abercrombie and Arcticstorm tomorrow. -SPM

And so on and so forth... I take it you catch my meaning? I have been suspected, perhaps not as much as say, articstorm or Saucepan Man, but I still have.

Also, what kind of suspicion is suspecting someone because they haven't garnered any suspicion? Is it my fault that I haven't gained suspicion? Shall I put some more suspicion on myself? I'm just pointing out that it seems ridiculous to suspect someone because they've been ignored. Not that I want suspicion, but hey, I don't particularly want to act cobblerish and get myself lynched over here.

On to the SPM/Eomer thing:

I think both of them are wolves and they are attempting to pull off one of the old "go for each other's jugulars to avoid suspicion if one of us get's lynched" things. They've alternated suspicion, yesterday was SPM's day and today is Eomer's, but unfortunatley for them, it appears one of them will probably get lynched today. Unless some new evidence comes to light, I shall probably vote for one of them today.

[Cailín]

Ahem, read again Cailin, I voted for articstorm.

Sorry, AoR... My mistake.

I have to say you seem rather insulted by the attacks on you, while there is simply not anyone here who has not at least gathered some sort of suspicion. Be careful.

Eomer's vote is a bit more difficult to fathom, and I hesitate to make an predictions based on it, at this time.

Of the two, I am inclined to think Eomer the Werewolf at this time.

But I shall save my vote for a later hour.

I'd ask you, Form, and any other innocent villager still holding their votes to please make a decision soon. The longer you hold your votes, the more chance the wolves have of manipulating the voting so it will go their own way. Also, SpM has it right toDay. One of them has to go and spreading out the votes will not be very helpful - we might lose another innocent and be in the exact same situation tomorrow.

The wolves know who they can trust. We do not. They have that as a major advantage. Do you honestly believe there is anything anyone could still say toDay to make you trust either Eomer or SpM? I don't think so. Except, perhaps, a straightforward comment from the Seer, but that is not very likely to happen. Follow your instincts here, because SpM and Eomer are admittedly both strong players with clever reasoning abilities.

They are not both innocents. They have not been furry pals from the beginning. It is highly unlikely they are both wolves, though they may be trying to clear each other by having us lynch one of them today. So what? At least we'll have caught a wolf.

I know I have nothing solid to back this up. *dramatic sigh* But whatever the turn out tonight, I will die for it. What more can I give than my life?

You'll never hear me say this again. But please. Join the bandwagon.

Who could possibly vote for Eomer? He's so loveable...

I know, we're all having a hard time.

[Márcolië Lamen]

There is good in voting for a suepct that is going to be repeatedly taking attention away from everyone else, even if it does cause a type of bandwagoning. But at tghe same time, it'd require a loss of a day of trail for the wovles, since they could easily have followed 'innocently' in the bandwagoning. Do not vote for Eomer or Saunce if you don't feel them, but instead feel another guilty. It'd just lead to over the top bandwagoning. However, more importantly, if you feel them guilty do not hesistate to vote either.
So with that I must vote for who I truely feel guilty
++Eomer

[Boromir88]

I dislike admitting to stupidity but I don't understand you Boromir. I know it sounds like it's dangerous for anyone to press you on your reasoning but I really don't realise why you're voting for me.~Eomer

You'll see all in good time, all in good time, though you might not live to see why.

The wolves know who they can trust. We do not.

And you never want to trust someone that says trust me. So, Cailin...trust me.

Votes so far:

Eomer (4)
Sauce
Cailin
Boromir
Marcolie

Alcarillo (2)
Mormegil
wilwarin

Sauce (1)
Eomer

With...Azaelia, arctic, Formendacil, Alcarillo, Abercrombie left to vote.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Might as well join the bandwagon.

++Eomer

Also, Cailin, I didn't mean for you to think I was insulted. It was more along the lines of mock horror/sacrcasm. I suppose I should've added a smiley or two...

[arcticstorm]

I have been looking at the evidence and I might as well vote for
++Eomer

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I'd ask you, Form, and any other innocent villager still holding their votes to please make a decision soon. The longer you hold your votes, the more chance the wolves have of manipulating the voting so it will go their own way. Also, SpM has it right toDay. One of them has to go and spreading out the votes will not be very helpful - we might lose another innocent and be in the exact same situation tomorrow.

Well, I'm flattered to know you believe me innocent. Such a statement is hard to come by in these troubled times. Do not fear for the manipulation of my vote. I shall vote how I want to, when I want to, with little fear of being too badly manipulated.

As of this time, however, Eomer already has what is essentially a convicting vote: 6 out of 12, and no retractable votes allowed.

I'm going to stick with my older gut feeling and vote ++Saucepan Man, though it does no good (or evil) now. I still think him the more likely suspect, on whole. The Eomer bandwaggon, although it FEELS right, doesn't seem to have as much SUBSTANCE behind it as it ought...

[mormegil]

I believe with those two votes from Artic and AoR, Eomer will be lynched today. I truly hope that we bagged a wolf today and don't loose any gifted tonight. However, only time will tell. I still would like to see Formendacil and Alcarillo vote today.

Cross posted with Formendacil--thanks for the vote

[mormegil]

Sorry for the double post but I was wanting to know who people think the other wolves are, assuming Eomer is a wolf of course. I suspect most

Marcolie
Alcarillo
SpM

others to a lesser extent but I think this list may prove helpful if we get it from enough people.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK. Now that voting’s more or less done, it seems a good opportunity to set out my thoughts on the remaining villagers. Of course, this will be a complete waste of time and effort if Eomer turns out to be innocent, because you’re all going to lynch me to-Morrow. But that ain’t gonna happen ‘cos (unless I have been taken for a true fool, in which case I deserve to die) Eomer is as guilty as they come.

So, these thoughts are predicated on Eomer’s guilt.

Cailin: For her part in helping us to nail Eomer, I believe her to be innocent. Could have been the Cursed, but her behaviour to-Day speaks strongly against it.

Boromir88: I suspected him yester-Day, but my suspicions have greatly been reduced. Largely because he seems to have spotted the same thing that I did in connection with Eomer. But also because I don’t think that two Wolves voted for me yester-Day and I don’t think that a Wolf would have voted for another Wolf at the stage at which Boro voted for Eomer to-Day.

Mormegil: I have a strong feeling that he was the Cursed and is now a fully paid up member of the fangs and fur club. He would have been a good choice for the Wolves last Night, as he had attracted little suspicion and is a shrewd player - er - villager. He seemed helpful in the first 2 Days, and has continued to try to give that appearance. But his nitpicking of me to-Day got me worried. And his suggestion that both Eomer and I were Wolves, with one of us having been the Cursed, would be a perfect ploy to divert from his own formerly Cursed nature and also to keep suspicion of me up to-Morrow with one Wolf down to-Day. His vote for Alcarillo rang alarm bells with me too. With it being odds on that either Eomer or I was a Wolf, and even the innocent one’s death being of help, it was sensible to keep the voting between the two of us to-Day, rather than brining in alternative candidates, particularly ones like Alcarillo with little in the way of strong evidence against them.

Wilwarin: Another Wolf. She has been from the start. Throughout, she has said very little, and nothing much of substance at all. Yester-Day and to-Day, she made no accusations other than of the ones she voted for. Her grief for Perky (the oh crap and all that) seemed over done to me. She introduced the plan of looking for the new Wolf by trying to second guess the Wolves’ choice of victim, a plan that seemed to me to be designed to divert us away from the evidence before our eyes concerning the original Wolves to-Day. And she voted for Alcarillo to-Day, so the same reasoning applies in that regard as with mormegil.

Marcolie Lamen: I did suspect her quite strongly, and still believe that she may still be a Wolf. Her vote for Eomer could have been a Wolf-on-Wolf vote, sacrificing the doomed Eomer in an effort to establish innocent credentials.

Abercrombie: Not a lot to go on. But seemed over-sensitive to Cailin’s oversight and suggestion that she had not been under suspicion. Seized on wilwa’s plan to look for the fourth Wolf with relish. Again, vote for Eomer could have been a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Arcticstorm: After yester-Day’s fiasco with Perky, I was inclined to think him probably innocent. But he has said very little of help to-Day. His vote for Eomer could have been a Wolf-on-Wolf vote, but, as it condemned Eomer to the lynch mob, I am doubtful. If he was a Wolf, it would have been sensible to wait to see if someone else condemned Eomer, and then vote for him. Unsure, but still inclined to view favourably.

Formendacil: I really don’t know. He has said little, but what he has lacked in quantity, he has made up for with quality. He also pushed wilwa’s Wolf 4 search party idea, but his vote for me to-Day makes him less suspicious in my eyes. With Eomer condemned, a Wolf would surely have looked to put in a Wolf-on-Wolf vote, rather than voting for one who is soon (I hope) to be shown to have been one of those instrumental in getting said Wolf lynched.

Alcarillo: Very little to go on, but I do not see any evidence really that speaks of his guilt. He voted for Gil on Day 1 and Perky on Day 2, but it is inevitable that innocents will end up voting for other innocents, especially in the early stages. His late vote for Gil on Day 1 (effectively to condemn him) speaks in his favour as far as I am concerned, since I still believe that the Wolves would have wanted to keep Gil around for a few Days to take the heat off them.

Azaelia: As with Boro, I suspected her yester-Day for her vote for me. But I’m fairly sure that only one Wolf voted for me yester-Day, which makes her a lot less suspicious in my eyes. Very similar to wilwa in having contributed little of substance. But, whereas I believe that wilwa could get stuck in if she wanted to, I suspect that this is just Azaelia’s style. In any event, it is highly doubtful that both Azaelia and wilwa are Wolves, since they would avoid acting so similarly. And, to my mind, the evidence against wilwa looks stronger than the evidence against Azaelia.

So, my top suspects are mormegil (as the fourth Wolf) and wilwarin. Not really sure about the remaining Wolf, but Abercrombie and Marcolie Lamen seem possible candidates.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Sauce

Azaelia: As with Boro, I suspected her yester-Day for her vote for me. But I’m fairly sure that only one Wolf voted for me yester-Day, which makes her a lot less suspicious in my eyes. Very similar to wilwa in having contributed little of substance. But, whereas I believe that wilwa could get stuck in if she wanted to, I suspect that this is just Azaelia’s style.

Ouch, Sauce, ouch. Thanks for holding such a high opinion of me.

Well! A lot has changed since I was last here.

I have thought and re-thought and have reached the conclusion that there is nothing I can do now, anyway...

++Eomer .

I hope we've caught a wolf today.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Azaelia

Ouch, Sauce, ouch. Thanks for holding such a high opinion of me.

I meant it in the nicest possible way.

[mormegil]

Sauce just so you know what you consider nitpicking I found rather material. You claimed that you found Eomer to be a patsy at the end of the day yester DAY, however the quote came from this morning. The difference being if you were the fourth wolf you would have knowledge today you didn't yesterday. Therefore you tried to change your story, but when you say it didn't work you went back to attacking Eomer. Now I don't know if my theory is correct but I want it to be considered.

You of all people should understand the importance of minutia

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I meant it in the nicest possible way.

But of course!

And just to make this *not* a total nothing post, I do apologize for my lack of participation. I have a lot going on during RL days. (though, happily, I am able to participate once work is over in the evenings). I know I haven't been contributing much, and wish I was.

[The Saucepan Man]

Mormegil, just to be clear on this:

Originally Posted by me towards the end of yester-Day

But it is clear to me that either Boromir88 or Azaelia is a Wolf, for their subsequent votes for me. What an opportunity for the Wolves to rid themselves of one thorn in their side (me) while implicating another (Eomer). It's unlikely that both are, as that would be risky, but it's a possibility.

I may have used the word "patsy" to-Day, but the theory was the same.

[Holbytlass]

After the shock of another one being bitten and having evil course throught their veins, the villagers couldn't face each other yet. Paranoia lay heavy like the storm clouds over the island. It was bad enough that there were three to begin with but now somebody who was on their side had defected.

Some worked in the fields scything off the wheat and barley heads imagining them to be wolf-heads. Some worked the fishing nets flinging them over the sea wishing they could fling the wolves into the sea. Hammers rang, axes thudded, pens scratched, all trying to purge themselves through sweat and tears of their pain and hatred.

A wicked but necessary routine had integrated itself into village life. Time had come again to accuse, defend and vote. Two had risen in suspicion thanks to the finger pointing of each other. In the end, Eomer of the Rohirrim-purveyor of mystical oddments, garnered the most votes. Trepidation filled the villagers' souls, they had to kill a wolf, they needed to kill a wolf, but are they today?

The villagers took a moment to think how they were going to do the deed. Eomer seized the moment, transformed and grabbed one of the young ladies.

"Not one move." Eomer growled as he backed towards the door pulling the miss with him, her large amber eyes pleading for help. Slowly, slowly, still eyeing the others, Eomer made it to the door, then in an instant, shoved the gal towards the people and bolted for the woods.

The people reacted quickly, a couple of them caught the gal, and a bear- like shape darted out the door and threw his axe with precision. Whooh-whooh-whooh, the axe whistled end over end, till it thucked into Eomer-wolf's skull. He fell down dead.

The villagers cautiously walked up to his now human form and nudged it.
"How could such a handsome man do such a thing?"



villagers:8
wolves:3

dead
Holby(mod) clawed from wolves night 1
Gil-Galad(Ordinary)shot by firing squad day1
Shelob(ordinary)killed by wolves jack-o-lantern style night2
The Perky Ent(ranger)executed by his sword day2
cursed villager transformed on night3
Eomer of the Rohirrim(wolf)whacked by lumberjack's axe day3



living
Morm
Formendacil
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo
Abercrombie
Marcolie
Azaelia
Boromir
Cailin


~wolves P.M.
~names from wolves, seer, hunter

[Holbytlass]

Squelching through the misty moisty bog, intermittenly wafting up hot reeky air. Searching, searching, but what is lost? Have to keep looking. Feet sticking, arms reaching for stunted trees to pull free. Gagging on the rotten heat blown on the face. A figure ahead shrouded in mist, with head turned back.

Jerking awake from the dream, the villager felt the hot reeky breath of the wolves standing over them. "It's.......!" But whatever 'it' is was never heard.

Morning came again, the wind biting cold. The villagers made their way past the Inn, through the cemetary, along the river to the easterly side of the island to the home of the missing villager.

There was no need to search. In the front lawn was a large wooden tub filled with water and apples, a figure kneeling into it, no doubt drowned. As the villagers pulled the body gently out, the head lolled back with eyes missing.


villagers:7
wolves:3

dead
Holby(mod) clawed from wolves night 1
Gil-Galad(Ordinary)shot by firing squad day1
Shelob(ordinary)killed by wolves jack-o-lantern style night2
The Perky Ent(ranger)executed by his sword day2
cursed villager transformed on night3
Eomer of the Rohirrim(wolf)whacked by lumberjack's axe day3
Cailin(seer)drowned bobbing for apples with eyes ripped out night 4




living
Morm
Formendacil
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo
Abercrombie
Marcolie
Azaelia
Boromir

[mormegil]

Alas, I feared this would be the fate of Cailin today. I thought it fairly obvious that she were the seer. Notice how at the end I tried to get her, be asking all, to give us their suspicions. I was hoping that she knew at least one more or maybe could shed light on who was innocent. What I don't understand is why Boromir and SpM brought attention to it by saying they weren't going to bring attention to it.

[The Saucepan Man]

So now do you all see why I was so certain that Eomer was a Wolf? Cailin was the Seer. She made good choices with her dreams. She dreamed of me on Night 1 (hence her trust for me) and Eomer on Night 2. I didn't pick it up until Night 3, but the clues are there. Of course, I fully realise that her dream for me is now of little benefit, given the transformation of the confounded Cursed one. But at least it allowed her to trust me for a while.

Cailin, wherever you are, you played your role marvellously and most of the credit for catching Eomer-Wolf must go to you. It is a great shame that it was necessary for you to reveal so much of yourself in the end in order to reveal that cruel beast. You have made a great sacrififice for the benefit of the village. I take my hat off to you.

We must find the three remaining Wolves, not just to save ourselves, but to avenge Cailin's cruel death and ensure that her sacrifice was worthwhile.

It would be useful to know who Cailin dreamed about on Night 3. I am sure that the clues are here, in post #176.

In the meantime, here's the voting from yester-Day:

Voting:
1. SpM for Eomer (Eomer - 1)
2. Eomer for SpM (Eomer - 1; SpM - 1)
3. Cailin for Eomer (Eomer - 2; SpM - 1)
4. Boromir for Eomer (Eomer - 3; SpM - 1)
5. Mormegil for Alcarillo (Eomer - 3; SpM - 1; Alcarillo - 1)
6. Wilwarin for Alcarillo (Eomer - 3; SpM - 1; Alcarillo - 2)
7. Marcolie Lamen for Eomer (Eomer - 4; SpM - 1; Alcarillo - 2)
8. Abercrombie for Eomer (Eomer - 5; SpM - 1; Alcarillo - 2)
9. Arcticstorm for Eomer (Eomer - 6; SpM - 1; Alcarillo - 2)
10. Formendacil for SpM (Eomer - 6; SpM - 2; Alcarillo - 2)
11. Azaelia for Eomer (Eomer - 7; SpM - 2; Alcarillo - 2)

Did not vote:
Alcarillo

My own thoughts are much the same now as they were when I posted here towards the close of Day yester-Day. But I will ponder further.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

What I don't understand is why Boromir and SpM brought attention to it by saying they weren't going to bring attention to it.

And so it begins. Or rather, continues from yester-Day.

I suspect that Cailin's fate was more likely sealed because others apparently could not see what Boro and I had picked up, and she was therefore forced into saying more than she would have liked in order to nail your fresh acquaintance.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

The wolves know who they can trust. We do not. They have that as a major advantage. Do you honestly believe there is anything anyone could still say toDay to make you trust either Eomer or SpM? I don't think so. Except, perhaps, a straightforward comment from the Seer, but that is not very likely to happen. Follow your instincts here, because SpM and Eomer are admittedly both strong players with clever reasoning abilities.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Saucepan Man - I trusted him yesterDay (which is pretty obvious when you look at the way I voted) and still am pretty much convinced he at least wasn’t an original wolf.

I think this shows one thing and only one thing. SpM was innocent to begin with. It doesn't mean that he didn't turn wolf the other night. Again I want to emphasize that I am not certain that my wacky theory has any merit but I think that we need to recognize that it's possible.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Arcticstorm - I trust arcticstorm far more than yesterDay, but I don’t think he’s entirely cleared just yet. I very much hope he turns out to be a wolf, so we weren’t wrong about everything. On the other hand, he voted for Perky, following me, more or less because I asked him to (yeah, that was an oops), which would be risking thing to do if he were a wolf indeed

Now this looks good for Articstorm, my guess is that she dreamt of him after all of the initial suspicion but didn't want to outright say it. My suspicion of him has lessened but not vanished.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Marcolie - I said I’d be keeping an eye on you, but I failed miserably. I seriously distrust you now, especially since you voted so strangely yesterday. Certainly, Azaelia was on most people’s suspect list by then, especially after Perky bravely decided to reveal himself, but it’s a very easy vote, for you are not suffering from post-Day 2 trauma right now, as most of us secretly are.

This seems pretty close to an accusation. That would mean that Cailin dreamt of SpM, Eomer, Articstorm and Marcolie. Now I could be wrong but this is by far the strongest suggestion she gave besides Eomer.

Originally Posted by Cailin

My suspect list, as of now:

1) Eomer
2) Marcolie / AbercrombieofRohan
3) Wilwa / Boromir
4) Formendacil

Let's keep this in mind while our discussion begins. I think there is wisdom in it. Notice that Marcolie ranked 2nd on the list.

[arcticstorm]

So they got the seer,
I knew that they would find him eventually, unfortunately with the cursed villager caught, not all of the seer's dreams will be able to help us. I tend to concur with Mormegil's choices on the dreams, as they seem to fit. I will be going and analyzing previous events and will let you in on my own two cents worth afyer I examine everything.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK. Why am I not the Cursed Wolf?

1. I took a lead role in slaying the Eomer-Wolf.

2. At the end of Day 2, there was much suspicion surrounding me. It is unlikely that the Wolves would have chosen to target someone who was a reasonable candidate for lynching on Day 3 (and who's death would have at least implicated Eomer). I am sure that Eomer felt that he would have a good chance of turning the village against me, with saubtle help from his buddies. He might have succeeded, but for Cailin having dreamed of him (something of which the Wolves were clearly unaware on Night 3, as they would have gone for her then had they been).

3. Mormegil's "theory" that Eomer and I were both Wolves, sparring with each other so as to establish the innocence of the survivor, does not hold water. As I have repeatedly explained to morm (seemingly to deaf, or more likely, Wolvish, ears), I viewed Eomer as more likely to be the innocent victim of a ploy by either Boro or Azaelia at the end of Day 2. Had I been tranformed over-Night, I would have been much more likely to stick with that approach and take the role of sacrificial Wolf myself, to Eomer's benefit.

In light of this, mormegil put a lot of effort yester-Day into trying to sow the seeds of doubt about me in the minds of the remaining innocent villagers, even though he did not end up voting for me.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I was thinking along the same lines myself. If I were guessing who would have died tonight I would have said that 3 candidates were most likely.

SpM
Eomer
Cailin

Hmm. Who's top of that list, I wonder?

Originally Posted by mormegil

Much of the reason I suspect them has already been stated so I won't repeat that but on SpM onpost 165 he is rather emphatic in his assertion that he is innocent. I believe I counted at least 4 times his expression that he is innocent, a very uncharacteristic thing for SpM to do. This makes me view him as the fourth wolf.

I explained the reasons in this regard. The reasoning set out in that post was predicated on my innocence. My innocence was therefore an integral part of the analysis.

Originally Posted by mormegil

This is highly interesting and fits perfectly into what I would expect to see from Eomer and SpM. If Eomer was an original wolf, as I suspect, and SpM is the fourth wolf, as I suspect, I had anticipated seeing both of them going at each other. This seems counterintuitive but I shall attempt to explain.

… For Eomer letting go of SpM would be too obvious and SpM giving up on Eomer would be too easy as well.

As I have already explained, I would have been far better off in such circumstances sticking with the theory that I set out at the end of Day 2.

I've noticed a change in posture of SpM that is very uncharacteristic of him and I think he's trying to adjust to his new role as a werewolf and is experiencing some growing pains.

I would be interested, morm, if you would cite some examples. To the extent that I did act any differently, it was because (following Cailin's continued strong accusation of Eomer and his attack on her) I became certain of Eomer's guilt and therefore acted accordingly.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I was wanting to know who people think the other wolves are, assuming Eomer is a wolf of course. I suspect most

Marcolie
Alcarillo
SpM

Bottom of the list now, but the only one remaining from the previous list - just so as to reinforce the suggestion.

Originally Posted by mormegil

You claimed that you found Eomer to be a patsy at the end of the day yester DAY, however the quote came from this morning. The difference being if you were the fourth wolf you would have knowledge today you didn't yesterday. Therefore you tried to change your story, but when you say it didn't work you went back to attacking Eomer.

Wrong! As I explained at the end of yester-Day, and again above.

But you see how busy mormegil was yester-Day in laying the groundwork to attack me to-Day, notwithstanding my role in Eomer's death?

Mormegil's vote yester-Day is also extremely suspicious (as is wilwa's). It was clear that either Eomer or SpM was a Wolf. Better to vote for one or the other since, even if the innocent one (ie me) had been lynched, the village would have known who to lynch to-Day. So why vote for Alcarillo, in respect of whom the evidence is circumstantial at best, and certainly no stronger than most other villagers? My guess is that two Wolves voted for Alcarillo and one voted for Eomer (it could have been one for Alcarillo and two for Eomer, but I see that as less likely).

In any event, I am pretty much certain that mormegil is the Wolf formerly known as the Cursed villager.

[Boromir88]

A brave sacrifice my lady Cailin, thankyou in helping us with the wolf you found, and I'm sure this will help us weed out the others. I thought she was going to go today. After her words when I sided with Eomer Day 2 of voting, it was pretty apparent she was the Seer. That's why I was surprised she wasn't killed that Night. I hope this goes to my benefit of now showing people my innocence. I knew she was the Seer before, and I don't care what's the risk, if a wolf spotted the Seer they will have the Seer killed that Night, it's the most dangerous role in the game.

I concur and agree that she did also dream of Sauce. So, that makes me see less suspicious of him. It doesn't mean that he isn't the newly turned wolf, however as I explained yesterday I don't think Sauce would be a target for wolves. They usually don't kill loud-mouths until they become a big thorn in the wolves side, Wolves typically go after possible dangerous players, yet ones that don't leave a big trail to follow.

I will post what I normally do, but here's my thoughts coming into today. Ok, so I think we have one wolf that didn't vote for Eomer (maybe two).

DID NOT VOTE for Eomer:

Mormegil
Wilwarin
Formendacil

All these people look suspicious. I'm more inclined to believe Wilwarin is the wolf here. With Eomer's fate still uncertain she gets the voting within 1 between Eomer and Alcarillo. Plus said basically nothing yesterday except she was sorry for voting for Perky.

I would also attach suspicion to Mormegil and Formendacil. Formendacil's vote seemed like a throw-away, didn't have enough in ya to vote for a fellow wolf? Mormegil's vote is less suspicious, he was pretty suspicious of Alcarillo all day long (as was I). But, both aren't as suspicious as Wilwarin's that came out of the blue...possibly to try to swing the anti-Eomer opposition?

I think we also have probably two wolves that voted for Eomer. At this point I'm more inclined to believe that they were the ones who voted at the end (Marcolie, Abercrombie, arctic, Azaelia) once it was pretty apparent Eomer was going to be hanged.

Marcolie's is less suspicious as it gets Eomer ahead by two, but Abercrombie and arctic's seemed like tagging along to go unsuspected. Azaelia just seemed to vote, to throw off suspicion from herself. Especially when I spotted the only person she really strongly suspected that day was Marcolie. (Though I may have missed something).

Alcarillo's actions just seem way to suspicious to be a wolf. With so much question going to him, I would expect a wolf to say something in his/her defense, Alcarillo seems to go along with the majority, which is a characteristic of a wolf, or an innocent persuaded by arguments.

So my wolves at the moment are: (No real order and subject to change at any moment).

Wilwarin
Azaelia
arctic

I feel pretty confident now that Sauce is innocent. As much as we would think that wolves would go after a "leader" such as Sauce, it typically isn't the case early on. Though, I have been fooled, and it's still possible.

[Boromir88]

What I don't understand is why Boromir and SpM brought attention to it by saying they weren't going to bring attention to it.

Mormegil, I didn't really bring attention to it. The post is there for everyone to read, I basically said if you're interested in wondering why I'm suspicious of Eomer you'll have to look for it. To me it was pretty clear with Cailin and my exchange the night before, Cailin was the Seer and she had dreamed of Eomer. Honestly, I really didn't think we could have been more blatant in that exchange except for declaring that she was the Seer. Which was why I was surprised she wasn't killed that night. With that, I felt a little foolish in following Eomer in his vote for Sauce, but I can't take it back and wasn't going to make the same mistake the next day.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by SpM

Hmm. Who's top of that list, I wonder?

Bottom of the list now, but the only one remaining from the previous list - just so as to reinforce the suggestion

My lists have been in no particular order.

I would be interested, morm, if you would cite some examples. To the extent that I did act any differently, it was because (following Cailin's continued strong accusation of Eomer and his attack on her) I became certain of Eomer's guilt and therefore acted accordingly.

One was the assertion of how innocent you are. I know you've explained it but it still seemed odd to me. Another was your most recent post. Why such a strong defense when there has been no attack? The only possible people I could see that would want to defend themselves so emphatically are gifteds and wolves. And I know that you are not a gifted. An innocent shouldn't be so concerned about self-defense. Also your stong defense was interesting because it came after I said this today.

I think this shows one thing and only one thing. SpM was innocent to begin with. It doesn't mean that he didn't turn wolf the other night. Again I want to emphasize that I am not certain that my wacky theory has any merit but I think that we need to recognize that it's possible.

I admit it's a bit far-fetched but possible and I want people to recognize that you are not exonerated simply because you were key in Eomer's lynching. I wasn't anticipating having a showdown with you today, but you are seeming rather intent on it. I must ask myself why? I can't say that what I said about my theory was very offensive so again why are you so defensive?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

This seems pretty close to an accusation. That would mean that Cailin dreamt of SpM, Eomer, Articstorm and Marcolie.

But Cailin only had three dreams before being slaughtered by the Wolves (discounting the dream they interrupted last Night).

Arcticstorm is a possibility, although she did say that he was not entirely cleared yet. My feeling is that, if she dreamed of a Wolf, she dreamed of wilwarin. And if she dreamed of an innocent, she dreamed of Azaelia:

Originally Posted by Cailin

Wilwarin - I think Wilwa might be one of our wolves here. She attracted some suspicion during the last few days, but never quite enough to get her in any real danger. When we started suspecting her, it was together with the other quiet villager Azaelia, but now Azaelia is the only one still really on our radar. It’s hard to explain, but if Azaelia is innocent, I think Wilwarin is definitely someone to look at.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Azaelia - I do not think she’s a wolf. She has been attracting suspicion since Day 1, yesterDay at the end of voting time, everybody suddenly believed her to be furry and evil. Sure, she has a little explaining to do, but I’m one of those crazy ones who think that the more suspicion people attract from the beginning, the more likely they are innocents.

It looks the more liekly to me that she dreamed of Azaelia and found her to be innocent. Azaelia would have been a logical choice, given that she was looking very suspicious at the end of Day 2. Also, I directly accused her of being a Wolf, and Cailin would still have fully trusted me at that point. My question is, if Cailin dreamed of the Cursed villager that Night, the Night that the Cursed tranformed, would that person have been revealed to her as an innocent or a Wolf?

Boro, I am pretty confident that you are innocent too. You and I have one suspect in common (wilwarin), but I would ask you to take a close look at mormegil.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Another was your most recent post. Why such a strong defense when there has been no attack?

Um - that came well after you accused me of having undergone a change in behaviour.

I would have thought that the answer is obvious. Part of my case against you is your eagerness to point out yester-Day that, even if Eomer was a Wolf, that did not mean that I was innocent and your "whacky" theory involving me as the fourth Wolf sparring with Eomer-Wolf. In order to put that case, I needed to show why it was unlikely that I was the fourth Wolf.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I wasn't anticipating having a showdown with you today, but you are seeming rather intent on it. I must ask myself why?

Again, a no-brainer. I believe that you are a Wolf.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Poor Cailin, her sacrifice caught a wolf. Her extreme hinting in the end was a sacrifice for us so we must take it and have at least some innocents suvive because of her sacrifice.

Reading through I must agree, I appear to be a pretty strong possiblility of being dreamed to be a wolf. I won't be able to prove my innocence so if you must lynch me then don't keep me around to take attention away from those truly guilty.

I feel Azalelia to have been the one drempt and shown to be innocent, at least before the wolves got their fourth member.

In terms of SaucepanMan I have been persuaded that he is most likely not the ex-cursed, but I am not sure. We know he wasn't one of the original three at least...and it'd be more likely a quiet one had become the wolf instead of such a leader. We can't make assumptions though.

Most likely one wolf didn't vote for his or her peer and two did. I'd say at least one of these are within the last few to vote because at that point he was unsavable. The last four people were Me, Abercrombie, arctic, and Azaelia. I know I had an excuse to voting late, but it would not persuade anyone of my innocence. I had written up my post and went to submit it and lost wireless for an hour before I was able to actually vote because we were leaving school and I was trying to get it in before we got out of the wireless range.

So I suspect at least one of
Abercrombie and
artic

because they were the only two within the last 4. Possibly Azaelia too if she was not the one drempt of.

on Alcarillo I don't know what to think. The actions seem one of a wolf, but could also be an innocent, and with the little defence I wonder if he hopes people will defend him if he doesn't defend himself...

In terms of wilwarin I feel wolf. Hasn't posted much of value, and partnered with one of the three who didn't vote for Eomer and my theory that one didn't, the most suspicious one becomes even more suspicious.

In terms of Morm I feel a possible ex-cursed. Definitally not one of the original three but as a vicitim makes sense, and hasn't helped at all since we were unfortunately cursed. I wouldn't say I suspect him half as much as I did Eomer yesterday, but I can't cast him off as an innocent.

Boro and Form I suspect to be innocent, Form because of voting for Sauce yesterday instead of a wolf-on-wolf vote. (or was it bluffing?) and Boro because of the overall helpfulness.


High suspision
Wilwarin
Morm

Middle suspision
Arcticstorm
Abercrombie

Middle/Low suspision
Azaelia
Alcarillo
Formendacil
Boromir

Low Suspision
Marcolie
Saucepan Man



I know this will be cross-posted with some so sorry for repetitions

[mormegil]

I hope that no ill comes of this, but I feel that it will help the greater good even though it's likely I will die. I am the Hunter! I attempted to hint to SpM in saying that I know he's not gifted but seemingly he has me stuck in his head as a wolf and won't reconsider . Now I do this because it will help give some clarity to our councils and cut out this seemingly endless blather about Mormegil being guilty.

Originally Posted by Márcolië Lamen

In terms of SaucepanMan I have been persuaded that he is most likely not the ex-cursed, but I am not sure. We know he wasn't one of the original three at least...and it'd be more likely a quiet one had become the wolf instead of such a leader. We can't make assumptions though.

This was my goal, I wanted people realize that SpM is not necessarily innocent. I agree it's not likely he's a wolf but let's please keep that in mind that we can't assume.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Good try Morm the wolf. But alas! You are not the hunter, because I am! I surely expect to die tonight at the paws of your murderous devious little fellows.

Saucepan, your suspicions of the treachrous deviant are completely based in reason. You've already set out detailed claims of mistrust against Morm, so I shall not repeat them. I cannot stress this enough Do not hesitate to ask for more proof on my part , for I am willing to give. But as of right now, I have quite a lot of studying to be doing and I can't provide it. It is quite clear to me, who at least one wolf is tonight.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by AbercrombieOfRohan

Good try Morm the wolf. But alas! You are not the hunter, because I am! I surely expect to die tonight at the paws of your murderous devious little fellows.

Interesting! Unless our Moddess made a mistake, which isnot likely, your claims of huntership are patently false. I must say that I am glad that I stepped forward because now I know my death will not be in vain, for if I am lynched today I will bring you down with me. But as to your lynching or mine, I will let the village decide that fate.

Originally Posted by AbercrombieOfRohan

It is quite clear to me, who at least one wolf is tonight

Quite so my dear!

[The Saucepan Man]

Good grief! Well, there's a turn of events!

So, unless anyone else comes along and claims to be the Hunter ( ), we know for sure that either morm or Abercrombie is a Wolf.

My inclination is to trust Abecrombie. If she was a Wolf, she would surely not claim to be the Hunter simply in reaction to a declaration by a mormegil-Hunter, as she is not in particular danger at this time. Given what has been said so far to-Day, a Wolf-mormegil is more likely to claim to be the Hunter than a Wolf-Abercrombie. Plus I had mormegil pinned as a Wolf in any event.

What do the others think?