Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Nogrod]

The QT has voted.

They give their vote to ++ Brinni..

Nope.

Not this time.



They give their vote to

++ Lhunardawen

[Loslote]

How interesting!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Differing Seer tactics, I guess. I certainly wouldn't single one person out as innocent on Day 1.

For the record, he didn't single him out. I singled him out in my analysis. Because everyone else Legate called innocent he at least had some doubts about, or made a point in passing about how something they said could be suspicious. Rune is the only one he was unanimous about, but it was pretty vague.

edit: xed with everyone after Greenie INCLUDING THE TROLLING MOD

[A Little Green]

I had a quick (and frustratingly inconclusive) look at Brinn yesterDay and toDay. I have to say I sort of get why she’s been scrutinised a lot less the last two days: her behaviour has been a lot less controversial.

Day 3:

Originally Posted by Brinn

I was really hoping that Kit was an ordo acting like the ranger, but alas.
The Hui bandwagon really did come from nowhere - I'm just glad I trusted my gut. I don't think the wolves saw that bandwagon coming, however, I do think there's a fair chance that a wolf is hiding among the Hui voters, so I will not disregard them.

This is Brinn reacting to Day 2 and Night 3. The tone doesn’t feel genuine to me, but that isn’t really an argument.
- Thinks there is at least one wolf in group that didn’t vote either Huin or Mac D2.
- Analyses Ka, doesn’t come to a conclusion either way; analyses Rune, concludes she is wary of him but not as suspicious as of some others; analyses Lhuna and finds her suspicious.
- Thinks Lalaith or Eonwe are most likely wolf-on-wolfers among Huin voters.
- List: most concerned about Inzil, Sally, Lhuna; somewhat worried about Boro, Rune, Lalaith, Eonwe; not sure about Kath, Ka, Shasta, Greenie, Lottie; feeling okay about Pitch, Lommy, Legate, Mac.
- Suspects Sally; after reveal, skeptical about its authenticity. Votes Sally because thinks real Hunter-Sally would have revealed her intended pick.

Day 4
- Reaction to previous Day again rubs me the wrong way, but again, this is a gut feeling thing more than anything else:

Originally Posted by Brinn

My gosh yesterDay was a mess. I am baffled why Sally last-minute switched to Mac - compared to everyone else, he appeared to be on the more innocent side. But I guess that at least takes the question of whether two wolves were on the table Day 2.

I don't think a Lommy-wolf would be so bold to lead the charge against Sally. It's more likely to me that a wolf (or two) just went with the flow because with seven votes against Sally post-hunter reveal, that would've been a much easier way to hide. The fact that Inzil was so keen to jump on her doesn't make me feel any better of him. I do not trust him one bit.

I'm actually liking what Boro has to say toDay. Strange, I know. I'm still wary of him due to the timing of his vote on Mac, but maybe less so.

- List: leans innocent on Lottie, Lommy, Pitchwife, Shasta and Kath, going back and forth on myself and Boro, no read on Rune or Ka, suspects Lhuna and Inzil, and thinks there’s a fair chance either Eonwe or Lalaith is a wolf but probably not both. Later states Inzil as her fake vote preference.
- Discusses Legate kill – either safe and boring or “seer” who dreamed Rune and Huin.

And that’s it up to time of writing. Aside from a vague bad feeling about her opening posts both days, there’s nothing here that screams “wolf” to me – if not exactly screaming “innocent” either. Not massively useful, but at least I know I haven’t overlooked anything very glaring either way.

[Thinlómien]

So presumably at least 2 dead innocents including Legate, or 3 innocents not including Legate, think Lhuna is fishy?

Gotcha, dead folks. A bit unsure how much we should let their choices affect ours though. They don't (barring some catastrophe in the qt thread) have evil intent, but they still don't know anything more than we do.


edit: xed with Greenie

[Lhunardawen]

Hmm. Interesting.


Well it's 3 AM here and I have work in 5 hours and I can barely keep my eye open, so I'll call it a night.

[Inziladun]

Interesting from the QT, however, Lhuna is not my first choice.

I'm at work today, and some may recall that my line entails a level of unpredictability.
That said, I can't see my main suspect changing.

++Lommy

I'll try to get back, but no guarantee.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So presumably at least 2 dead innocents including Legate, or 3 innocents not including Legate, think Lhuna is fishy?

Gotcha, dead folks. A bit unsure how much we should let their choices affect ours though. They don't (barring some catastrophe in the qt thread) have evil intent, but they still don't know anything more than we do.

SORRY, Sally not Legate. It's the last lynchee who's the tie-breaker, not the last dead.


edit: xed with Zil

[Thinlómien]

So

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Zil -> Lommy

[Lhunardawen]

Taking advantage of my weird timezone to greet sally a happy birthday! *waves and blows a kiss to the QT thread*

[Pitchwife]

+-Eönwë


For reasons explained yesterDay, plus I'd have expected an innocent to react a bit stronger to this continued suspicion.


An unordered list:



Zil and/or Lommy - on the fence

Boro - haven't studied him enough to form a qualified opinion.
Brinn and/or Greenie - wary for involvement in sallywagon, but apart from the bit from Greenie I quoted above nothing in yesterDay's posts really stood out as fishy
Lottie - leaning innocent
Rune - no wolfy vibes so far
Kath - see Rune
Lhuna - darned if I know; she's a slippery fish in the sense that I can't quite get a cognitive grip on her
Lalaith - a bit like Lhuna but less so (does this make any sense?)
THE Ka - another one; like somebody said, she seems to exist in a bubble of her own at one remove from what else is happening
Shasta - not concerned so far, we'll see what happens when he gets more involved

[Nogrod]

Managed to catch up only now, so here's the tally of the Day so far, a bit late...


Votes (1h 45 min. before the DL)

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy


EDIT: X'd with Lommy's list... It's always good to do a double-check.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

So

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Zil -> Lommy

This is interesting. I'd still prefer Inzil, but I'm also tempted to follow the Cuties' lead on Lhuna. I was uneasy with her to begin with, and since she isn't the most obvious choice for the QT vote, it makes me wonder if they haven't deduced something from Huin that led them to believe she's a fellow of his.

[Thinlómien]

I would prefer Zil, but I can also content myself with Lhuna and Eönwë who both give me somewhat concerning vibes. There's not as much logical reason to suspect them as with Zil, but logic hasn't served me too well in this game...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Almost done reading through todays action, and my initial thoughts are thus:

Lommy’s involvement in the Sally lynch, definitely makes me wary of her. To me, it was one of the most nonsensical things I have seen in a long time. I must note however that a known innocent (Legate), defended Lommy’s reasoning. So yeah, Lommy moves up my list of suspicions, but it would not be prudent to make that our only focal point.

I don’t care for Inzil's way of pushing the Lommy agenda, nor do I like the energetic way in which Lommy seems to pursue the tactic of “the best defence is an attack” today.

I get good vibes from Pitch and Lalaith so far today.

Also I like that you have gone with the early fake votes.

[Loslote]

In the spirit of avoiding last minute chaos...

++Boro

He is the most suspicious to me. I wouldn't be too upset if any of the people who currently have votes were quarantined, but I think Boro is our best bet.

[Boromir88]

That is some good news that makes me happy. Understand, I hold them in the highest respect at the moment.

G55 and Huey did well to make the QT vote useless for 2 days. Now it's changed.

A lot of people were looking for an alternative to sally here though, and Boro had previously stated he didn't want to lynch the Hunter, and with 8 votes to go another candidate could have garnered votes. Ok, self preservation, but did you actually believe sally? ~Kath

I was going back and forth. At first I agreed that it would be better not to lynch sally, there was roughly maybe 45 minutes until DL. But after revealing she just went and disappeared, while everyone else (except Lommy) was talking about other options. I think there was still about 15 minutes to go, someone asked for other options I said Zil or Lhuna. Then it was just a mad dash, where 5 minutes to go, there was still so many people who hadn't voted, sally was still gone, so I figured at that point she had to be a wolf.

I feel pretty good about Kath. I like her direct and straight way of asking questions.

Lommy's first post of the day wasn't exactly the most helpful. Although, we've all been there and terribly wrong about someone.

I'll most probably be following the QT's vote. Seems to me like they've got a good head on their shoulders now.

Edit: crossed with Rune and Lottie

He is the most suspicious to me. I wouldn't be too upset if any of the people who currently have votes were quarantined, but I think Boro is our best bet. ~Lottie

Of course, because you're not one of the people who have a vote. In all seriousness though, I don't know about you yet, but you can very easily have a day like Lommy's yesterday and be terribly wrong. That's a risk I guess we all take here.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If I was to vote right now I would probably go for Inzil, Eonwe or Brinn.
I am currently flipflopping on whom I suspect the most, and I would also like to look a little on Lhuna and Boro before I vote. People that I haven't been able to get a read on, but whom interesting points have been made.

+- Inzil
+- Eonwe
+- Brinn


Lastly I wouldn't want to vote Lommy today, yesterday was foolish and suspicious, but in it self not something that convinces me of her guilt.

[A Little Green]

++ Inziladun

I don't think I need to reiterate why he's suspicious, but as to why vote for him -

First, and quite simply, I think he's the most suspicious person around.
Second, I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I don't have a particular interest in putting someone in the lead to save someone else (sounds cold-hearted, I know); out of those who currently have votes, I somewhat suspect Lhuna and Boro and lean innocent but am not convinced about Lommy and Eonwe.
Third, I think a vote that is more spread out gives us more info later on; as we've seen, giant bandwagons are easy places to hide.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I don't have a particular interest in putting someone in the lead to save someone else (sounds cold-hearted, I know)

'I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I'll vote for a fifth person who is a likely candidate for getting lynched." - *ping*

[Thinlómien]

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

'I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I'll vote for a fifth person who is a likely candidate for getting lynched." - *ping*

I'm not fundamentally opposed to quarantining Zil toDay, but I am a little suspicious of the people who are pushing for it, as I think we could learn a lot more if we quarantined someone else. Zil's been so suspected for so long that even if he is a wolf, there's no way the wolves haven't already distanced themselves.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

'I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I'll vote for a fifth person who is a likely candidate for getting lynched." - *ping*

Yeah but, tbh, it also makes Greenie sound like someone who has nothing to lose. Suck as packmate's lives. So if she's a wolf, either she doesn't care about a packmate getting offed a this point (they could possibly afford it but I doubt they'd want it?), or none of her packmates is among the voted ones so far. Which would make them quite a formidable team

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm not fundamentally opposed to quarantining Zil toDay, but I am a little suspicious of the people who are pushing for it, as I think we could learn a lot more if we quarantined someone else. Zil's been so suspected for so long that even if he is a wolf, there's no way the wolves haven't already distanced themselves.

I agree with this assesment, but as I said with Sally (lol), better a likelier wolf lynch than a potentially more informative one.

I'm still a little undecided, and a little afraid that I might need to hold onto my vote a little longer in case the wind starts blowing my way again.

[Lalaith]

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm still a little undecided, and a little afraid that I might need to hold onto my vote a little longer in case the wind starts blowing my way again.

I'm sure this will creep people out, since I'm also saying it. But I'm holding my vote too...maybe not to the last 2 minutes again. I'd prefer not to, but I'm saying it with the intention of putting some minds at ease.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

A bunch of dead innocents think she's the most suspicious person here/ someone we should pay more attention to. But as long as we don't know their reasoning, what can we do except say "ditto, noted"?

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Clarification: this doesn't mean that I'm not considering voting Lhuna. It just means that I'm considering it only a rather flimsy basis, which doesn't make me too happy.

[Lalaith]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

[Lalaith]

But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Yes - definitely.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

I think it is interesting that Lhuna , a relatively non-vocal player (at least not great quantities of posts), choses to introduce her theory that there we are dealing with submarine-wolves in a relatively subdued manner. Also she only does so after she has cast a vote fore Eonwe.

I am afraid I don't have an analysis though.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

You and me both.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Well, I did do an analysis of her yesterDay, but I don't have time to look any further into her posts toDay.

I could vote for Lhuna, but my preference lies with Inzil.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading. Without having read the last two-plus pages or so, I'd probably be voting for Lommy if forced. Let's see if my mind changes any.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

I haven't done one today, haven't quite had the time to follow too close. Trying to catch up on the details of today. This was I think from Day 2:

#502

[THE Ka]

For referral, from yesterDay after QT vote:

Originally Posted by Legate

Also a quick list I made for myself just before I came back here:

Wary of:
Greenie
Lhuna
Inzil
Boro
Brinniel
Eönwë

Thought guilty earlier but think better now:
Lottie

Flip-floppy about:

Thinlómien
Sally
Lalaith
Macalaure

Nothing particular on:
Pitchwife
THE Ka

Feeling good about:
Kath
Shasta
Rune

Originally Posted by Lommy

For the record, he didn't single him out. I singled him out in my analysis. Because everyone else Legate called innocent he at least had some doubts about, or made a point in passing about how something they said could be suspicious. Rune is the only one he was unanimous about, but it was pretty vague.

I decided to go back, again, before my eye glazed over and try to find this reference to Legate's suspicion on Rune and discussion that Lhuna mentioned, because from this back and forth with Lommy I kept trying to figure out what the vital focus on Legate and Rune was.

Checked several posts with lists he makes, #667, #642, and then #632 which has the only direct mention of Rune that I can find. In it he is looking at votes for Day 2 and on the Rune topic for his vote for Lottie:

Originally Posted by Legate, post #632

Now depending on the context this could be anything: a throwaway, likely though not an attempt to save a packmate (too little momentum already and stronger bandwagons elsewhere). It looks mostly like an innocent going stubbornly after his own.

After reading it again, this supports Lommy's words more than Lhuna, which out of the two on trying to force the interest of suspicion, makes me a bit more wary of Lhuna's mounting interest in pushing it. Granted this could all be a possible fabricated tit-for-tat between the two, but I would assume both parties would have gone back and made sure the basis of the Rune-Legate connection checked out and not just one of them.

As for the QT and since Sally is the tiebreaker for their vote toDay (if I'm getting that right), back in post #724 Sally follows the theory that the QT vote is to be ignored since who is controlling it at that time. ToDay we'd have: G55 (cobbler), Rikae (villager), Kit (Ranger), Huin (Wolf), Sally (Hunter), and Mac (villager). I'm assuming Mac does count since he was lynchee ala Sally and not voted by the wolves?
That's 4-2 difference with far more insight and influence for innocents given the gifteds around them along with help from Legate. I find it hard that G55 and Huin could have thrown that vote to protect Lhuna and prevent us from picking her. So I can see Sally's stance changing but it gives me more reassurance she was at least aware yesterDay this could be a factor, along with Legate.

If I gave Lhuna the benefit of the doubt that she just slipped up, I still don't see it working in her favour as a wolf. It would be a gamble to put it all in Lommy's corner to argue and believe that none of us would go back and check Legate's posts for insights, let alone clues for who would want him out of the way the most if how it's looking the wolves thought he might have been a Seer candidate.

All this in mind, I'm trusting QT and going with:

++Lhunardawen

x'ed probably with everyone, been writing since 12:20 my time and haven't refreshed yet.

[RL - I have to step away now and check on family along with getting them to focus on travel plans before it's too late. Thanks again everyone for giving me a break.]

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil

I'm pretty okay with this tally. The QT vote for Lhuna is interesting - unsure if I want to follow up on it today, but I don't think she and I are ever going to agree about how long I held my vote the day we QT'd Huin, and I can't decide if I think it's wolvish or not.

I currently think there's a Lommy/Boro connection - specifically I think there's a case for them being wolves together. It's at gut-and-pings level right now; if I were to research anything it would probably be that.

Zil and Eonwe both have minor dings against them but also both have places where I agreed with what they had to say, so...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

++ Inziladun

I don't think I need to reiterate why he's suspicious, but as to why vote for him -

First, and quite simply, I think he's the most suspicious person around.
Second, I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I don't have a particular interest in putting someone in the lead to save someone else (sounds cold-hearted, I know); out of those who currently have votes, I somewhat suspect Lhuna and Boro and lean innocent but am not convinced about Lommy and Eonwe.
Third, I think a vote that is more spread out gives us more info later on; as we've seen, giant bandwagons are easy places to hide.

I have zero problems with this - this is almost exactly my own train of thought (bar that I seem to be more suspicious of Lommy than Greenie appears to be.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Do I like Lottie? My immediate reaction is that yes, I like Lottie, but ask me why and I don't think I could tell you. Huh.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Brinniel has fallen completely under my reindeer and I consider that an issue.

(I'm in stream-of-consciousness-mode, apparently.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Almost done reading through todays action, and my initial thoughts are thus:

Lommy’s involvement in the Sally lynch, definitely makes me wary of her. To me, it was one of the most nonsensical things I have seen in a long time. I must note however that a known innocent (Legate), defended Lommy’s reasoning. So yeah, Lommy moves up my list of suspicions, but it would not be prudent to make that our only focal point.

I don’t care for Inzil's way of pushing the Lommy agenda, nor do I like the energetic way in which Lommy seems to pursue the tactic of “the best defence is an attack” today.

I get good vibes from Pitch and Lalaith so far today.

Also I like that you have gone with the early fake votes.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

If I was to vote right now I would probably go for Inzil, Eonwe or Brinn.
I am currently flipflopping on whom I suspect the most, and I would also like to look a little on Lhuna and Boro before I vote. People that I haven't been able to get a read on, but whom interesting points have been made.

+- Inzil
+- Eonwe
+- Brinn


Lastly I wouldn't want to vote Lommy today, yesterday was foolish and suspicious, but in it self not something that convinces me of her guilt.

This seems a bit of an odd turnaround, Rune.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

I don't know why we should read too much into that. Wolf-on-wolf is always a possibility. Eönwë hasn't been under that much suspicion; a packmate Lhuna could vote him quite safely. Also, Lhuna voted an hour before the QT deadline which is probably but not certainly enough time for the QT to react to. At any rate, I don't see why we should assume their vote says more about their thoughts on Eönwë's role than Lhuna's.