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Old 06-02-2015, 05:44 PM   #161
satansaloser2005
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Nutshell version: I would rather lynch someone toDay than orchestrate a tie. While yes, a tie can be handy later on, right now our odds of getting a wolf are as high as they're likely to get, and to squander our opportunity to fight back and allow the baddies two kills in the Night seems wasteful to me. Frittering away our lynches before the dead can impact them really only benefits the wolves.

Crap. I got distracted. I'll give another quick read, but I may not end up voting. Sorry.


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Old 06-02-2015, 05:45 PM   #162
Rikae
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Okay then the list:

The Good
Rikae - so far so good, seems calm and collected which (sorry dear) Wolfkae often isn't
A setup? I don't think I've ever remained calm through any game, ever. Day 1, sure, but eventually I will get mad at someone and then Lommy springs the trap!

Or... is it a clever way to keep me in line?
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Old 06-02-2015, 05:49 PM   #163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
So if I am the one selected by the Dead, and I vote for the Phantom, the Phantom suddenly jumps up as the candidate for the lynch by two votes instead of just one?
Yes, the Empowered Person gets their one vote doubled to two.
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Old 06-02-2015, 05:55 PM   #164
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I'm back and have been reading.

If I were to vote on vague suspicions of a furry-biter...

Nogrod stands out...the insistence in needing a lynch tonight is pinging on my radar. I get the lynch is a needed weapon to get wolves, but as Form says sometimes it's worth waiting for the enemy to make the first move. And...


Quote:
I do not like the "let's not lynch anyone toDay" -meme (backed by the idea that we might lynch our Seer who is very important in this game) as the chances of lynching our seer are minuscule compared to any normal game and there are such loads of wolves around - and if we were to lynch the seer s/he could act on it before things get nasty thus at least securing another two dreams the next Night when the Ranger covered it for her/him...

There 24 players of which 1 is the Seer. The chances of hitting the Seer on D1 lynching = 1/24.

THere are 3+3 wolves in this game. The chances of getting a wolf on D1 lynching = 6/24 = 1/4. And add to that the practical stats we've just seen (a village is slightly better than random in picking up the villains), so yeah. Let's try and hunt a wolf toDay.
In the words of Han Solo...never tell me the odds! The bottom line is a Seer living through Day 1 with 4 dreams is a better asset and powerful gifted Seer than any village has arguably ever had. As miniscule as the chance is, it's not something I want to leave to chance, on a Day 1 lynch where we won't know anything about until later (or possibly never).

I'm not optimistic about organizing a tied-vote, there are too many variables and too many who probably would be against it. However, I'll be here for the rest of the night and it's likely what I will have in mind to do when I do vote.

Now to read through page 4 and beyond!
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Old 06-02-2015, 05:56 PM   #165
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Mmmm... Regarding the recent-running Agan vs Lommy spat, I can't say that I really see a 'slip' where Lommy does in Agan's comment. However, I do think that Agan's reaction to Lommy's pointing it out is rather... overt? I'm not sure that's the word I'm looking for there. But it does strike me as almost too much, even going so far as to vote her in what looks to me like pure revenge. Although she couched her vote in reasoning, ironically I think I'd feel better about Agan if she'd simply been like "I'm offended that you think that of me, so I'm voting you".

As it stands, Agan does seem defensive to me. Of course, this is the first WW game we've had in a long while, so it might just be that she doesn't want to be the first lynch? Still, it does stick out to me.
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Old 06-02-2015, 05:56 PM   #166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
An ordo would have no problems changing realms as the game will be quite intense and fun in the Dead Thread in a couple of days time.
Speak for yourself - personally I'm not looking forward to following two threads and trying to use my very limited powers for the best while not really being able to contribute to the outcome of the game and hitting my head against the wall when the village does something I consider stupid.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog, emphasis mine
I'm not willing to tie my hands at this point of the game to any such folly - or willing to give any lycantrophe a get-away basing her/his actions or words on a such a thing.
That's a good point.

Basically - the intended use of the dead thread is that the dead, who know more than the living, can tip the scale of the village vote by giving an innocent or innocent-looking person a double vote. What we have been discussing is if there's a way to use the dead thread even more to our advantage, by gathering information from their votes. I still think it's a good topic to discuss, but to be realist, the most likely use for the dead thread will be the intended one.

We should keep discussing it, but as morm so nicely points out, not on the expense of trying to find wolves. To be fair, I don't think that's a problem toDay though because we have to talk about something to give any vibes to each other toDay. If people abstain from voting or vote just to create a tie while not seemingly putting any energy in finding the baddies, *then* I might start getting worried.

PS.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Agan
Her village spokesperson idea was decent but I'm partly kind of offended that she chose to question my intelligence by holding a joke against me and partly suspicious of her "ERMAHGERD SLIP!!!111 Did ya see a SLIP!!!111" approach which would probably feel forced to me even if it wasn't about me.
I think we can start a club then because *I* am a little offended you continuously try to frame me as stupid and harmless. I think it's a good strategy on your part, but I dislike it nonetheless. As for my supposed misinterpretation, I still think you could have clarified it in a lot less (passive) aggressive way, and it's likely you resorted to that because it pushed your buttons, which it wouldn't have if you actually were innocent. That's all I have to say about the topic toDay.


edit: xed with morm's #159 and onwards
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:03 PM   #167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
I don't think I've ever remained calm through any game, ever. Day 1, sure, but eventually I will get mad at someone and then Lommy springs the trap!
In my experience, you usually get mad when you feel pressured, and you feel more pressured more often when you're a wolf. That's what I meant. But in a way you are right - there's been little pressure on you yet so maybe I shouldn't be judging yet. You just seem quite relaxed and reasonable so far, so I have little reason to suspect you.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:03 PM   #168
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Just a quick one

I like the points morm and Boro raise about Nogrod. Feeling better about morm now as well.

Leaning towards voting for Aganzir at the moment.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:04 PM   #169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
The bottom line is a Seer living through Day 1 with 4 dreams is a better asset and powerful gifted Seer than any village has arguably ever had. As miniscule as the chance is, it's not something I want to leave to chance, on a Day 1 lynch where we won't know anything about until later (or possibly never).
I don't think lynching someone today changes the odds of the Seer dying toDay or toNight all that appreciably, Boro. I especially don't think it changes the odds enough to forego a 1-in-4 chance of killing a wolf today. Someone more numbers-oriented than I could run the math on that, probably, but the fact that our lynch potential is limited is enough for me to think we should take a shot at a wolf today.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:05 PM   #170
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The Agan/Lommy fracas smells fishy to me, but that's one of those hindsight things I doubt I'll have a sense for until a couple Days have passed: they could be in cahoots or they could even both be innocent--but I doubt that latter one. One of them is probably a wolf.

It has occurred to me to make a list of people and rate them based on my impressions--but more than half the village would fall under "hasn't said enough for me to have any idea."

Still, I suppose bedtime is nearing (and my attention flagging as it approaches), so I should start to think about who to vote for. It seems the village tends away from a tied vote, so while I prefer that as a plan, I should probably come up with a Plan B.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:05 PM   #171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
For example, say the Seer is dead and has claimed Person X as innocent, and that Person Y is a wolf. In the Living thread, Person Z has voted for Person Y, but earlier, it was stated that if the dead give their extra vote to Person Z, it should signify that Person X is a wolf.

I can't think of any real way to circumvent this problem at the moment, but it's definitely a real one (sort of like getting Manwe lynched after my death during my first run-through as Seer ).
That's only going to be a problem, though, if ONLY person Z voted for person Y.
Which either means a very small village (as in, the last day) or that person Y has no chance of getting lynched anyway. Most days the village will be big enough that the dead will have lots of options.

Folks, please stop assuming people are trying to dictate to the dead! It's all the way back in post #34: the idea is that the dead have a choice. That way the dead can both cast a vote and send an additional message.
And as for me, if/when I end up on the dead thread, I'd prefer to have as much ability to get information to the living as possible. In fact, I would be rather frustrated with (and suspicious of) anyone who muddles that process. It doesn't matter who decides how the message will be sent. It doesn't require elaborate choosing of spokespeople, just an agreement well before the deadline. The strategy won't make sense if the village gets very small, because the extra vote will carry too much weight in its own right, but early on, it could be very valuable.

It's interesting how many people are arguing that it either can't be done or is somehow oppressive. And by interesting, I mean suspicious.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:07 PM   #172
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I have two candidates to vote: the phantom and Aganzir.


Aganzir felt bad from the very beginning - like Lommy said
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
enjoying your wolfing in this game with a nice pack and even the tiniest prospect that your enjoyment might be cut short both makes you fight back and gets on your nerves because you dislike being "busted" on something so trivial
But what actually made her into my list of suspects was the totally uncalled for "rubbing the right way" with me on her
Quote:
Originally Posted by Agan
I liked Nog's points in #141, but Shasta has a good point as well.
- when what I said was mostly against what she had been saying all along, and she kind of keeps her position with the actual substance by saying Shasta made good points against mine. So the whole thing of saying something positive on my contributions seems overstreched and unnecessary - and kind of out of place unless it was meant to just make me feel good about her - and she felt there was a need for me to not think of her as a suspect.


The Phantom then would be really cool Day1 wolf-lynch, something worth an anniversary -game! He's a darn good player and would be a real asset to the village if we knew we could trust him - and that could be done in the dead-thread. And if he's a wolf, well then good riddance!

What made me think of this idea more seriously was his reaction - when he went into defensive mode after I made my half-joking comment of us voting him. So first he made this "hey wolves, kill me, ranger don't protect me" which is futile in any way, but then he went to kind of forcing it:
Quote:
Originally Posted by tp
And just so you know, I'm operating under the assumption that any Wolf would be desperate to kill me in case I'm in the opposing pack.

One of the two it is then for me toDay.

Of those with votes already I'm kind of understanding what Form is saying (even if I disagree with him in general) and think Macalaure speaks sense - which goes for Lommy too (even if I do wonder her insistence on the spokesperson -idea). I have not enough to say on Legate as yet and Nilp's self vote I'm just disregarding at this point.

Of others (like most of the above) I have little to say - perhaps because I haven't paid that much attention to anyone thus far (which is purely my fault) but I am not going to make a full list of people when it is 3am.

Checking the latest, giving everything a thought and then voting...
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:14 PM   #173
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Okay, so here is a list of what I think of people so far...

GREEN ZONE
Nog - reasonable, okay, nothing that would require scrutiny so far
Lommy - also reasonable, nothing that would give me reason to doubt her innocence
Form - same thing, I disagree with his view of the situation, but he sounds genuine like a genuine innocent concerned about his village's wellbeing
Kath - very little info, but nothing bad there
Shasta - same thing
Morm - not sure if I played with him ever before, but no problem there so far, reasonable posts and all.
Mith - not any humongous amount of posts (which however on this thread might be an asset...), but certainly no signs of wishing to cast blame around, so, no problem.
Rune - fairly little to go with, but so far so good, as far as I can tell
Nerwen - likewise, been productive in any case and no evil Nerwen-vibes so far

Sally - well. Not sure if it belongs here, since there is literally zero info, probably she should go into "grey" cathegory for now... but can't say anything as of yet.
McCaber, Eomer AND Boro actually belong to the same cathegory; more or less. (And Gwath hasn't posted, or has he?)


YELLOW ZONE
The Phantom - being the spam-maniac he is, he could very well be a mastermind, but I at least think so far he does not seem that he would require removal
Mac - kind of the same thing, been active, trying to sound reasonable, there was a bit of doubt on my side as to the genuine tone of his concerns, but then again, nothing that would really convince me he is a Wolf.
Nilp - I have no idea if I ever played with him before, his style of posting sounds a bit fishy to me at times, but it is not really anything specific, might be just style - would have to really read more from him.
Aganzir - nah, I think she's here just because I don't like her (to be expected, though) jumping in the car with The Phantom and adopting the slightly bossy attitude "I know what's the best for the village and I know it the best".
Rikae - well she could totally be the Wolf, to be honest, but I mean, her points are well-reasoned, she is helpful, regardless of having different opinions on this on that, I could put her as well into the green league for the time being, it is just also that, like other of the "witty" players in this cathegory, her posts do not sound 100% clearly good-intentioned
Loslote - kind of similar, could be green zone. Is kind of like Rikae in a smaller, more quiet package, but effectively so far the impression is fairly similar.
Firefoot - at some point in the beginning did not make much sense, which made it overall a bit hazy (is he intentionally muddling waters, or just happened to phrase something in an unclear way), but otherwise, no reason to really vote for
Lalaith - kind of a similar case, generally there is rather too little to make out anything out of her

ORANGE ZONE
Greenie - just too happy with too many smileys at some point; she had reasonable points, but she is not stupid. I have no idea what to make of the comment to Agan I mentioned above, although now it seems to me like that was rather random. But that's just the sauce; bottom line being, her "I am the nice clever helpful girl next door" attitude is sort of making me wonder whether it is genuine. Probably one of my choices for vote toDay.

RED ZONE
- empty so far -

EDIT: x-ed after my last
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:21 PM   #174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Aside from the "tie or not to tie" discussion and so on, of the moments that "stood out", the only weird thing about the Agan-Morm exchange to me was Greenie's reaction to it, "defensive" one:

Just kinda defensive, because I think it seemed pretty clear that it was not meant the way Greenie is interpreting it???
This also stood out as a weird reaction to me. A strange thing to say and a strange way to take what was said.

In the Agan/Lommy exchanges, I felt that for all I dislike Lommy's reactions (in that they're not what I would do in that situation and to me at least seem counterproductive), it feels more genuine, like how an innocent would respond. Agan's, in contrast, feel like an opportunistic move to try and provoke something that the rest of the village could leap on.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:21 PM   #175
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Quote:
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Before anyone gives me a solid argument why we should go for an imagined "village spokesman" and do what s/he says, or think the dead will follow her/his thoughts / advice / commands / position (aka. that we should interpret what the dead mean based upon whether they give the "spokesperson" the extra-vote or not), I'll be against it and do my best to thwart any actions proposed or interpretations of facts based on such an entity whether living or dead - unless, of course, there is this solid argument why I should think otherwise.
I may be wrong, but my understanding was that by "village spokesperson", people meant the person who states what various dead votes will mean, not the person who gets the dead vote (the empowered person).

Assuming that, I agree with the phantom: the spokesperson is whoever gives a reasonable list when the voting is done. It doesn't matter whether person X or person Y gets the extra vote, when both voted for person Z. It also doesn't matter which meaning we assign to empowering person X or person Y, as long as we're clear on it before DL.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:24 PM   #176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Formendacil View Post
It has occurred to me to make a list of people and rate them based on my impressions--but more than half the village would fall under "hasn't said enough for me to have any idea."
Well, did you see my list?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
It doesn't require elaborate choosing of spokespeople, just an agreement well before the deadline. The strategy won't make sense if the village gets very small, because the extra vote will carry too much weight in its own right, but early on, it could be very valuable.

It's interesting how many people are arguing that it either can't be done or is somehow oppressive. And by interesting, I mean suspicious.
I'm only skeptical how the village will reach an agreement that the dead consider enough of an agreement to act on it. Then again, given how we're toDay kind of sliding towards an agreement that we'll vote as normal and not try to orchestrate a tie, maybe you're right and I'm just being pessimistic. The bottom line being (sorry for being the Captain Obvious here!) we can't of course know whether an "organic" direction by the living towards the dead thread will work or not until we've tried it. (There is a voice in my head asking if we'll know it even after we've tried it, but I'm getting too tired to think it through.)

As for those who consider such direction oppressive, well, I think it's an emotional knee-jerk reaction, and while I don't think they've thought it through, I can definitely see where they're coming from so I don't personally find it very suspicious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
The Phantom then would be really cool Day1 wolf-lynch, something worth an anniversary -game!
We can hardly pat ourselves on the back for lynching the phantomwolf on Day1 if we do it just because he's the phantom. Also I'm starting to get a little suspicious of Nog's push to lynch the phantom despite not even suspecting him. Just, why would you do that?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
which goes for Lommy too (even if I do wonder her insistence on the spokesperson -idea)
Just nitpicking a little, I didn't insist on the spokesperson idea, I merely suggested it. But for the record I think it's still worth thinking about, even though I can't really see how it would be orchestrated without wasting a horrible amount of time and energy. It's very much worth keeping in mind if we ever have a known innocent though.

In any case, I'm going to sleep now as it's past 3am (oops - how I've missed werewolf! ). Choose well.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:27 PM   #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Assuming that, I agree with the phantom: the spokesperson is whoever gives a reasonable list when the voting is done. It doesn't matter whether person X or person Y gets the extra vote, when both voted for person Z. It also doesn't matter which meaning we assign to empowering person X or person Y, as long as we're clear on it before DL.
That sounds like even more far-fetched and flimsy... (Ok I need to check the rules and what was indeed proposed tomorrow - but with my understanding of the suggestion now it sounds ridiculous)

The votes so far.

Nilp -> Nilp
Rune -> Formendacil
Mormegil -> Macalaure
Lalaith -> Legate
Kath -> Formendacil 2
Aganzir -> Lommy
Lommy -> Aganzir


A pause for thought and then a vote.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:34 PM   #178
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Originally Posted by Kuruharan View Post
Yes, the Empowered Person gets their one vote doubled to two.
Thanks for the clarification, Kuru.

Anyway, as for the matter at hand - suddenly I feel the sleep is really coming at me, and it's really getting deeply late. (I do not understand the Finnish people, since it's even one hour more there than where I am at the moment.) My brain simply can't work any more, so just a few quick points.

I am probably going to vote for Greenie, she really strikes me as the most suspicious person toDay.

As for the sudden Lommy-Agan row, aside from probable tiredness of both. It of course is possible that the escalation might be coming from one of them being a Wolf; if so, then personally I'd say Agan. But because it might be really just an escalation of absolute nonsense, I am not really inclined to vote for either just because of that. That said...
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Originally Posted by McCaber View Post
Agan's, in contrast, feel like an opportunistic move to try and provoke something that the rest of the village could leap on.
This is what I would think is exactly what happened, but that could be the case whether Agan is a Wolf or innocent. So here, not really much to base strong judgement on.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:36 PM   #179
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Anyway, my brain is literally switching off, so

++A Little Green

And good Night, village.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:37 PM   #180
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Quote:
Assuming that, I agree with the phantom: the spokesperson is whoever gives a reasonable list when the voting is done. It doesn't matter whether person X or person Y gets the extra vote, when both voted for person Z. It also doesn't matter which meaning we assign to empowering person X or person Y, as long as we're clear on it before DL. - Rikae
We should be able to set up a fail safe too, just in case relayed information via the Dead vote gets tampered with, or in the event the Dead are innocents who know the identity of a living wolf, or a living gifted, we don't know and thus vote accordingly to lynch/save someone. Some sort of fall back to let the Living know "We the Dead, for whatever reason, did not get the information your spokesperson requested. Abort and disregard our vote."
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:40 PM   #181
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Since Aganzir looks far more suspicious to me than Form (who has two votes already) and no one seems to pick on my "let's send the phantom to be checked by the dead" -idea, I'll go with

++ Aganzir

She felt wrong all Day, too happy to be the one who is on top of everything and her totally unnecessary - and weird - "liking my points" when she did not (and was getting to sleep) looks too suspicious. Like trying to feel good as the point of making such a "point".

But let's make sure we know what tp is sooner than later - or there is a firm chance we regret not doing it.

Good night and see you in one of the threads toMorrow.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:45 PM   #182
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Well I'm home and I just want to go to sleep.

As of now, I have no idea who I should vote, and I'd actually still like a tie->no lynch today (only today, not every day, I don't even know who first twisted it that way). Let me explain once again why.
  • Whether we lynch somebody on DAY 1 or not, the Dead can only start voting for role reveals on NIGHT 3. If we lynch now, they'll have to choose between 4 people. If we don't, there will only be 3. I see that we'd benefit from narrowing down the options. Especially as the role vote is the only way to find out dead people's alignment until the seer dies.

If somebody would like to explain the actual benefits of lynching somebody today, I'm more than willing to reconsider, but as I see it, we're trying to apply old rules to a new concept.
Very tired but skimming through looking for oddities, this post by Aganzir struck me. This is surely (deliberate?) misinformation. The dead get their power of voting and enquiry not on the third night but when there are three dead. Since there should be (barring a successful protection or double targeting) one lynching and two night kills that means that it is more likely than not that the dead can start influencing things in the second cycle.
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Old 06-02-2015, 06:46 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
We should be able to set up a fail safe too, just in case relayed information via the Dead vote gets tampered with, or in the event the Dead are innocents who know the identity of a living wolf, or a living gifted, we don't know and thus vote accordingly to lynch/save someone. Some sort of fall back to let the Living know "We the Dead, for whatever reason, did not get the information your spokesperson requested. Abort and disregard our vote."
Yeah, that's what I was getting at with "at least 3 people in the wagon" earlier. So there is a "neutral" way for the dead to join that particular wagon, if they wish, too.
So, we shouldn't be putting the "signals" into bandwagons of less than 3.

Nog, the only way it's flimsy and far-fetched is if someone insists on jumping in and arguing needlessly about what vote should mean what (and anyone who does that looks very, very furry). As long as the dead have enough options, whatever the first person says should be fine.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:03 PM   #184
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I would think the Lommy vs. Agan stuff looked wolf-on-wolfy, if this were a game where that made sense.

Missed this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
Basically - the intended use of the dead thread is that the dead, who know more than the living, can tip the scale of the village vote by giving an innocent or innocent-looking person a double vote. What we have been discussing is if there's a way to use the dead thread even more to our advantage, by gathering information from their votes. I still think it's a good topic to discuss, but to be realist, the most likely use for the dead thread will be the intended one.
I can't speak for Kuru but when I came up with the idea for the first such game, I was kind of hoping the players would try to use the dead vote in interesting ways like this. So, in a way, it is "the intended use".
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:04 PM   #185
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
We can hardly pat ourselves on the back for lynching the phantomwolf on Day1 if we do it just because he's the phantom. Also I'm starting to get a little suspicious of Nog's push to lynch the phantom despite not even suspecting him. Just, why would you do that?
I agree it's not the most beautiful way of getting rid of a phantomwolf on D1 to do it "just because" - but it would be a remarkable deed anyway.

But looking at this game (with the Dead Thread aka. no one is actually booted out of the game - and that changes everything) I still wonder how differently people think. I mean I'm happy to go to the Dead Thread as I have nothing to worry (if I'm lynched no gifted is lynched - and lynching a wolf is anyway a remarkable deed - so an innocent goes every now and then) and I think an innocent tp would think the same as well. But he clearly doesn't - and that's why I suspect him.

So Lommy: I do suspect him and made the point in my post up there (#172) - like Agan he was overly defensive in his quick reactions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Nog, the only way it's flimsy and far-fetched is if someone insists on jumping in and arguing needlessly about what vote should mean what (and anyone who does that looks very, very furry). As long as the dead have enough options, whatever the first person says should be fine.
It may be I'm missing something from this ingenious plan of yours, but it looks dowright doomed. Why would the dead pick the choices of the living? Why would they go for a "neutral voter" if they had better plans? How would we orchestrate it that they'd be forced to do our picking? How do you tell, if the "decision" of the dead is made by well informed majority of innocents?

The dead will basically know 1/3 of the roles - well alignments - there's a lot of rom for distraction, tom-foolery, laziness, well made plots etc. to twist the vote of the dead not being what the Living would like it to be - or think they could interpret it to be.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:09 PM   #186
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I'm fading fast from this waking world--which is quite unfair since I still have a good five hours or more on the Europeans--and I don't have a firm idea of who to vote for. If we go for actually lynching someone, my gut says to go with the 50% chance of Agan/Lommy over the 25% chance of "Just Anyone," but that's hardly fair to spring at the last minute after they've gone to bed--and grounded to begin with in a tenuous gut feeling that one of them is probably guilty.

Basically, my suspect list looks something like:

Too Little Information to Guess:

-Some of these people have posted more than others, but they're all still close enough to blank slates to me:
Kath
Shasta
Boromir
Mithalwen
Rune
Sally
McCaber
Eomer
Nerwen
Nilp
Loslote
Firefoot
Lalaith
Greenie
Gwath


The Others:
Morm - In general, he seems sensible, but none of his opinions have stood out one way or another. Good camouflage for a wolf?
Nogrod - The brashest personality offering commentary/suggestions today (setting Lommy and Agan aside). That makes me wary of him, but I think that's his style anyway--and I've agreed with enough of what he said.
Lommy - She seems a bit too defensive, but that's not reason enough to lynch her. I incline to think her more innocent that not.
Aganzir - Slightly more innocent than guilty to me--more flippant than defensive is the vibe I'm getting, for whatever little that's worth. She has the votes (as of starting this post) that we get a tie-waggon rolling between me and her, but I don't see that taking off giving the village response thus far.
The Phantom - Oddly enough, I don't think of him as a wolf, so he probably is one--or worse, he's probably the Special Role and he's playing the a Werebear-Mythomancer. But that's not a concrete reason to lynch him on Day 1--and if we'll regret having him alive, we may regret having him take over the Dead Thread from the beginning just as likely...
Mac - I've liked the statistics, but I'm not honestly sure what he's actually said beyond offering them.
Rikae - Ought to be up with the "Insufficient Information" crew, probably, but posted late enough in the day that my attention has been flagged and... I'm not sure: hasn't said anything alarming, but I agree that something feels off about that... but it's nebulous.
Legate - Similar to Morm in that I think he's contributed but in a camouflaged manner. I probably shouldn't trust him, but for now I do...


Vote coming next post or so, most likely...
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:09 PM   #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mithalwen View Post
Very tired but skimming through looking for oddities, this post by Aganzir struck me. This is surely (deliberate?) misinformation. The dead get their power of voting and enquiry not on the third night but when there are three dead. Since there should be (barring a successful protection or double targeting) one lynching and two night kills that means that it is more likely than not that the dead can start influencing things in the second cycle.
I think what she means is on the Dead thread, during the DAY they vote on who gets an extra vote amongst the Living, and during the NIGHT phase, vote on who amongst the Dead gets revealed as a Predator or Prey.

Therefor, they won't cast a vote to reveal one of the Dead's roles until NIGHT 3. If we lynch today, and 2 wolf kills tonight. DAY 2, the 3 dead will be able to vote who in the Living gets an extra vote. And if there's a lynch DAY 2, than NIGHT 3 they make their first role reveal vote, but there's 4 dead now. Where if we don't lynch someone today, and the same plays out...wolves kill 2. The 2 Dead, on DAY 2 aren't enough to grant a Living the extra vote. Then we make a lynch DAY 2, so by the time they reach the 3 Dead residents, it's during a NIGHT phase where they will vote on revealing one of their roles.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:16 PM   #188
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1 hour to deadline, and people are still discussing dead thread stuff. Wolves trying to look like they're contributing? Innocents who can't let go of a topic now that they've sunk their non-canine teeth into? I'm slightly leaning towards the latter, since in this game wolves don't have to fabricate cases, so there's no need come up with stuff out of thin air, or to look for an alternative to not have to.

I like how, in this game, if someone you suspect votes for somebody else you suspect, it doesn't cause you to second-guess your suspicions. Makes things easier. Whether this is a good thing in the larger picture is something else.

I don't really suspect morm anymore now, and I'd rather not vote for Rune. Nogrod made his way up my suspect list, but I feel quite unconfident about it.
Unless something unexpected happens, I will vote for Aganzir.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:16 PM   #189
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Hmm maybe.. but it still seems wrong - maybe because it is so passive and seems to give too much of a free rein to the wolves for too long before we do anything. Gah..
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:18 PM   #190
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The votes so far.

Nilp -> Nilp
Rune -> Formendacil
Mormegil -> Macalaure
Lalaith -> Legate
Kath -> Formendacil 2
Aganzir -> Lommy
Lommy -> Aganzir
Legate -> A Little Green
Nogrod -> Aganzir 2



Nine votes. Assuming nothing comes in under the wire, my vote will make ten. That still leaves 14, which is more than enough to tidal wave all that has come before--but we're into the final hour and who knows if all shall vote?

++Formendacil

I still think a tied vote with no lynch is the way to go, so I'm going to put myself up one more. It's either that or not vote at all, and I think not voting would be a worse cop-out than voting for myself. I do think Aganzir could be guilty, but I don't think it strongly enough to put her in the lead. I'd rather trust the village to tie us up--at the very least, maybe this will force the Silent Majority to make a decision between lynching or not.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:20 PM   #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Folks, please stop assuming people are trying to dictate to the dead!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
the idea is that the dead have a choice. That way the dead can both cast a vote and send an additional message.
And as for me, if/when I end up on the dead thread, I'd prefer to have as much ability to get information to the living as possible. In fact, I would be rather frustrated with (and suspicious of) anyone who muddles that process.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
It doesn't matter who decides how the message will be sent. It doesn't require elaborate choosing of spokespeople, just an agreement well before the deadline.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
It's interesting how many people are arguing that it either can't be done or is somehow oppressive. And by interesting, I mean suspicious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
the spokesperson is whoever gives a reasonable list when the voting is done. It doesn't matter whether person X or person Y gets the extra vote, when both voted for person Z. It also doesn't matter which meaning we assign to empowering person X or person Y, as long as we're clear on it before DL.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
As long as the dead have enough options, whatever the first person says should be fine.
Yes. Yes to everything.

Nog and others- if you are good and Rikae is evil, I do wonder what your excuse is for being so clearly dominated when it comes to exercising common sense. Rikae is just hitting it out of the park.

People seem to be trying to make things more difficult than they have to be. It's like we're trying to hand you a weapon and you don't want to take it.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:20 PM   #192
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Form, I don't think you can do this. I'm pretty sure Nilp has trademarked senselessly self-voting on Day1.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:22 PM   #193
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++ Aganzir

Still feels wrong too tired to look again
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:24 PM   #194
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Can someone start at the beginning and explain why Agan is suspicious? I just skimmed over the exchange and it looks like she's suspected because she made a joke, and then she is further suspected because she didn't like being suspected for making a joke. Is that accurate or am I missing something?
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:24 PM   #195
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++Formendacil
That's copyright infringement!


I'm here....ish. Sorry. Replying is a bit of a trick tonight.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:29 PM   #196
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Wow, I forgot how long it takes to read through four pages of Day 1. Anyway, I'm all caught up now (finally!).

I can kind of see where the Agan suspicion is coming from, since she did seem a little defensive at times, but she's not my top choice. Honestly, the person who jumped out at me most was Nog, who seemed to be pretty conciliatory despite being firmly planted on one side of the biggest debate of the Day. I'd prefer to vote for him if at all possible.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:32 PM   #197
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Yeah, I wouldn't mind voting for Nog, but only if we have an actual real chance of leaping him with or ahead of Form and Agan. Otherwise it feels like a waste.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:37 PM   #198
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It may be I'm missing something from this ingenious plan of yours, but it looks dowright doomed. Why would the dead pick the choices of the living? Why would they go for a "neutral voter" if they had better plans? How would we orchestrate it that they'd be forced to do our picking? How do you tell, if the "decision" of the dead is made by well informed majority of innocents? ~ Nog
I don't see it as forcing the dead to vote the way they want to vote, but as a way to give us some information about roles revealed in the Dead thread.

Ok, hypothetical, you and me living have 4 votes, and say hypothetically the phantom is dead and the dead wanted to know his role during the NIGHT.

Lommy, spokesperson during the next DAY phase says something like "if you know phantom is a predator give your extra vote to one of Nog's voters (leaving 4 options). If you know phantom is a prey give your extra vote to one of Boro's votes (again leaving 4 options). If you don't know phantom's role, or you know stuff about the Living lynch we don't know...abort. Don't tell us something with your extra vote and give it to anyone who did not vote for Nog or Boro."

That's not forcing the Dead into a box to give an extra vote to only a few people. Although it leaves it up to open to tampering if their are more wolves. But, that would in turn mean we're doing a good job (or the wolves are doing a good job killing each other...or both). Also, a Dead wolf I would imagine shouldn't be completely put off with a chance to work with Dead innocents if it means they help their own pack by weakening their rivals.

If I happen to die soon, the first wolf I'm aware of in the Dead thread, I will certainly make a proposal to make a temporary alliance in an effort to kill off their rival pack. I don't know if any of them will take up that offer, but I can be quite persuasive.
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Old 06-02-2015, 07:37 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
It may be I'm missing something from this ingenious plan of yours, but it looks dowright doomed.
It's basically the phantom's plan, in this post.

Not that I trust the phantom, necessarily, but it's a plan that can get us some of the dead's information, and therefore, a good idea.

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Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
Why would the dead pick the choices of the living?
I'm not sure what you mean. The living would finish voting early, so the dead would already know who voted for whom before choosing who to empower.

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Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
Why would they go for a "neutral voter" if they had better plans?
There would be more than one "neutral" choice.

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Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
How would we orchestrate it that they'd be forced to do our picking?
Forced to do our picking? I'm not sure what you mean by that at all.

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Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
How do you tell, if the "decision" of the dead is made by well informed majority of innocents?
I addressed the dead wolves issue here and Nilp did here.

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Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
The dead will basically know 1/3 of the roles - well alignments - there's a lot of rom for distraction, tom-foolery, laziness, well made plots etc. to twist the vote of the dead not being what the Living would like it to be - or think they could interpret it to be.
So, you'd rather get less information from them? That doesn't sound like you, Nog. Next thing, you'll be telling the living to post less, because loud wolves create confusion!


Oooh, refreshed and saw this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom
Nog and others- if you are good and Rikae is evil, I do wonder what your excuse is for being so clearly dominated when it comes to exercising common sense. Rikae is just hitting it out of the park.
Buttering me up, eh? Wolfish. True, but wolfish.





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Old 06-02-2015, 07:38 PM   #200
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I'm here, I'm caught up, and I'm confused.

The Lommy/Agan thing is odd to me but I'm not sure which one seems more suspicious. I don't know Agan at all so I have no idea if this is normal. Lommy seems snappy though.

I don't have time for any kind of thorough analysis so a vote will be a shot in the dark... one thing that has occurred to me is that it seems unlikely to me that a wolf would be expressing much confusion about the rules, having had the whole previous night to hash some of those issues out with their buddies? Nogrod seems a little too bumbling in the beginning to feel wolfish to me, for example (picking on you because your name is currently being discussed, sorry!).
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