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Old 06-04-2015, 02:33 PM   #321
A Little Green
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Am I right in that the only votes that have been cast this far are these two:

Lottie – morm
Nerwen – Mac

?

I don't want to vote for either of these two, I think morm is innocent and I don't have a clear enough opinion on Mac either way. My top picks would be Agan and Sally, but I'd prefer to hear more from Sally first before making a decision since right now she's in the "just plain confusing" category rather than the "downright evil" one.
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Old 06-04-2015, 02:54 PM   #322
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Looks like it's bedtime for me.

++ Aganzir

In brief - her reaction to Lommy's point against her is still the most suspicious thing I've seen this far. Sally seemed in a way even more off than Agan, but I want her to explain herself before deciding what to think.

That's all from me toDay, I'm sure there was something else I meant to say but if there was I've forgotten it. Leaky brain is leaky. Anyway, choose wisely, kids. Good night.
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Old 06-04-2015, 02:56 PM   #323
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It may be nothing of course but in such a sparse narration you grasp at anything... maybe the knownunknown isn't waterproof.
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:01 PM   #324
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Am I right in that the only votes that have been cast this far are these two:
Lottie – mormv
Nerwen – Mac

?

I don't want to vote for either of these two, I think morm is innocent and I don't have a clear enough opinion on Mac either way. My top picks would be Agan and Sally, but I'd prefer to hear more from Sally first before making a decision since right now she's in the "just plain confusing" category rather than the "downright evil" one.
Checking in again (still on this cursed phone). I agree with Greenie tha neither Morm nor Mac really strikes me (yet? I don't have much of a read on Mac--which is suspicious, I suppose, but knd of how I feel about everyone here. Morm feels fouler, but that could be a Gifted vibe). Rather thanvote for either of them just yet, I'd still like to see more options, especially off the Nogwaggon. The middle voters strike me as having been in the best voting slots to indicate wolves: trying to hide their votes and--maybe--cover a packmate in danger. And although he's obviously off the lynchable list today, I don't leave Phantom off the list if possible wolves. It'd be quite typical of him to disguise any lycanthropy by giving the village the soundest advice he could think of..besides him, Lottie, Eomer, a d Shasta have all been under the radar. Out of that bandwaggon midsection, we could easily have a lurkerwolf.
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:07 PM   #325
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Just popping in to say I'm not particularly happy with the options at the moment. I don't have much time but how do others feel about Firefoot, and about Lottie? These loud, controversial people - Agan, Mac - seem less and less wolfish to me, and I don't see much of a case against Morm.
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:23 PM   #326
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Commenting as I read

Macalaure seems horribly... mischevious? Carefree? I think that might be indicative of him being an ordo who's just decided to enjoy the ride.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etc
Wait - the only works from toMorrow on, right? Because last Night Nogrod would have hardly alone uncovered he role of... Nogrod.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
One small point: Lommy's post #271 mistakenly quotes me. I don't know who posted those words but it certainly wasn't me.
Oops, I'm sorry! I checked, it was Boro. I added a correction to the quote so it shouldn't confuse anyone anymore.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Form
In the cold light of day, the Agan/Lommy spat seems to have vanished as quickly as it started,which is either proof of innocence or a sign of Nightly discussion in my mind, which makes me think for the first time that they might be littermates.
Well, we're not arguing anymore but thre has been nothing to lessen my suspicion of Aganzir, and to be honest I don't have very many other leads before I sit down to think a bit more.

*off to do that next*
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:34 PM   #327
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
But anyway, you're being sloppy (deliberately or not) lumping me in with "the wolf-on-wolf people"
Hmm? *goes to read again*
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae, yesterDay
I would think the Lommy vs. Agan stuff looked wolf-on-wolfy, if this were a game where that made sense.
Ugh, yeah... reading comprehension. Never mind that part.
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:39 PM   #328
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Well, I'm back, she said.

I'd rather the Dead checked Nog first. I'm quite positive phantom was innocent (he wouldn't have acted the way he did, and somehow I doubt he'd have killed Rune under the circumstances), and I agree with Boro that checking the lynches is more relevant than checking the night kills.

Then again, the wolves will continue to use their influence to direct attention away from their fellows, dead even more than alive. So when a dead person is revealed to be a predator, I vote for taking a very close look at the people who tried to convince the Dead to scry somebody else instead.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
I'm wondering about that myself- I'm reading through yesterDay and there are interactions that *look* like "normal" wolf-on-wolfing- morm's with Mac
What was that? Mac is a player who likes his wolf-on-wolfing a lot, but I didn't think his interaction with morm was particularly fishy (pretty much all he said was that he can't leave morm under the radar), and I'm not sure morm would have gone so far as to vote for him (even if it was early in the day) if they were fellows.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
PS. For anyone who wants to have a laugh on the expense of dead people (very crass I know ;-)):
You know I kept skimming the thread in my meeting even after I got too busy to post, and I had to make a real effort to keep from laughing when I saw that quote.

Gah I really need to go to sleep soon and I just don't have the time I need today.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
I didn't consider it, I dismissed it. :P
Well Mac, I've also dismissed the chance of your being one, as the seer wouldn't dream of talking about me the way you do.

Boro's reasoning about phantom and Rune's roles in #286 feels good to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
I still think Agan is most likely a wolf, but I'll grant that there's a possibility that she's innocent. But why then was she so upset about Lommy's suspicion? It just makes more sense for a wolf who messed up.
Because, sleep-deprived as I was in the wee hours after a very long day, I thought her main reason to suspect me was not the angle of my joke but the fact that I chose to make it in the first place (this theory was supported in my mind by her strong reaction to it earlier). I felt she was accusing me of
  1. being so dumb and/or jumpy I didn't recognise a joke, and
  2. making a really lousy slip which - IMO - she ought to have known I wouldn't do.
Which I felt insulted my intelligence, especially as I don't slip when I'm a wolf (as you'll eventually find out ) - and even if I did, I'd never trip on something so elementary. I felt Lommy was calling me stupid and being very smug and gleeful about it, and if y'all want to know, I was actually snarling at the screen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith View Post
In the narration.

I thought of this. "The way is shut.
It was made by those who are Dead.
And the Dead keep it.
The way is shut."

Probably just me being fanciful.
Perhaps the special role can resurrect people!

Okay I'm going to put together some sort of a list.
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:43 PM   #329
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Some quick reactions to a few things I found suspicious or worthy of attention that I bumped into as I read...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Furthermore, I think the fact that the second person killed was tp is telling. I doubt the wolves thought tp was Gifted - unless they figured he was bluffing, or double bluffing, or whatever, but that's a hard loop to get into when it's all centered around tp. My thought is that, if the pack which killed tp had had a solid lead on a Gifted, they would have gone with that over tp. Therefore, I don't think it's a terrible assumption to say that neither pack had a solid lead on a Gifted last Night, and that both went with other options.
Oho! Well here is a suspicious thing if I have ever seen one. This sounds exactly like a Wolf accidentally telling about what they were telling their packmates at Night. "Our pack didn't have a solid lead on Gifted, so that's what happened." Just a note, but made Lottie jump further on my list.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mormegil View Post
I don't think the idea should be written off either, however as I've indicated it's much more likely they were trying to target a potential seer than a wolf from a different pack. What bothered me about Sally's post was how she immediately jumped to that conclusion that "Well they must have thought Rune was a wolf". Why must that have been the immediate conclusion? You don't strike me as suspicious because you are looking at other sides and sticking your neck out a bit. But when such an early post comes to an immediate and seemingly definitive conclusion that is somewhat counter-intuitive and the other possibility isn't even consider, yes I will consider that suspicious.
And this also a bit. The second part ("you don't strike me as suspicious...") is suddenly quite defensive, quite unnecessarily, I would say.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
The wishy-washiness of Firefoot's suspicions is the sort that often strikes me as wolfy fishing "let's put forward some candidates but not commit, see if anyone nibbles".
Agreed. Personally I do not know what to make of Firefoot, it isn't particularly striking impression, but the bit of wishy-washiness is there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Formendacil View Post
In the cold light of day, the Agan/Lommy spat seems to have vanished as quickly as it started,which is either proof of innocence or a sign of Nightly discussion in my mind, which makes me think for the first time that they might be littermates.
Interesting opinion! Wouldn't have occured to me, but at least on purely theoretical basis, why not. I am not too inclined to believe it, but it is possible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Just popping in to say I'm not particularly happy with the options at the moment. I don't have much time but how do others feel about Firefoot, and about Lottie? These loud, controversial people - Agan, Mac - seem less and less wolfish to me, and I don't see much of a case against Morm.
I just mentioned Lottie above (and Firefoot too, in fact), I am not sure if I would really go so far to vote for them. Mac does not seem any less suspicious to me than before, there is an aura of uncertainity about him, although too, he wouldn't yet probably get my vote. My top suspect still remains to be Greenie, and in regards to what she said herself, I think I could rephrase: it isn't really that she is being nice, it is that she is too happy. And if there is anything she is happy about, it's being a Werewolf. It's simply the whole behavior and attitude, while also stirring the pot without being involved in any horrible brawl (which could get her under scrutiny) and being noncommital.

I will probably post a list of what I think of everyone now, also for personal clarification.

EDIT: x-ed with the last few
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:48 PM   #330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
Then again, the wolves will continue to use their influence to direct attention away from their fellows, dead even more than alive. So when a dead person is revealed to be a predator, I vote for taking a very close look at the people who tried to convince the Dead to scry somebody else instead.
Sure, that's reasonable opinion.

And also interesting find, Lalaith, about the possible hint - I think also it might be about the unknown role (although I think we are left to speculate for now, hopefully perhaps more will follow?). Anyway, shows how for instance, I assume more people, like me, did not bother to read the narration very deeply...

The promised list coming soon.
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:49 PM   #331
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I'm both carefree and really defensive.

I can't win.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
Well Mac, I've also dismissed the chance of your being one, as the seer wouldn't dream of talking about me the way you do.
If I was the seer, I wouldn't be almost sure that you're a wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
making a really lousy slip which - IMO - she ought to have known I wouldn't do.
Hey, it happens to the very best of them.

*ahem*

*cough*




About the secret role. My first thought was that the itching may refer to a cursed villager. But now that people mention the Paths of the Dead, maybe it is another person who can go to the dead thread (under certain circumstances?) and maybe bring someone back with him?
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:49 PM   #332
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I have internet at the hotel, and I have my laptop!

I'll try and get caught up momentarily.

For now, Boro's explanation is acceptable; it just seemed odd to me at the time. Lottie is one I'd like to look at today; there's something she's normally done in games by now that she hasn't yet and I'm curious as to the reason.
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:51 PM   #333
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It's really quite impossible to make much sensible stuff out of yesterDay's votes without knowing Nogrod's role (grumble grumble).

Agan is unlikely to be in cahoots with Mith, Mccaber or Mac (hard to imagine the wolves would aim to sacrifice each other because it doesn't even make them look good with the undisclosed roles).

Likewise it's unlikely Nogrod's packmates were the phantom, Lottie, Shasta, Eomer or Sally.

Form does look innocent.

...and that's it.

Now, as I still think it's pretty likely Agan is a wolf (yes, my reason might seem like a small thing, but 1) it's this kind of small things that are actual clues and 2) it's not like I have a better idea), I'm going to sacrifice a moment for thinking who might (have) be(en) her packmate.

Basically it boils down to the nogawagon bunch: the phantom, Lottie, Shasta, Eomer and Sally.

Interestingly enough, I already suspected Sally yesterDay. This hardly makes her look better to me. Lottie? Shasta? Eomer? Hmmm, maybe. Entertaining myself with the idea that the phantom was Agan's packmate and tried to save her. (Yes, he would totally do that, especially in a game like this.) Then the other wolfgang () killed him, would've served him right.

But really, the above is just all flimsy speculation...

A quick list, including the dead:

(reasoning attached if it hasn't been mentioned before or is other than gut feeling/ general impression)

Innocent
Lalaith
Mac
Legate

Rikae - I disagree with them a lot but I think they're likely innocent
Form - I disagree with him a lot but I think he's very likely innocent
morm
Rune
Nilp


Questionable
Greenie - she just seems too sensible to me?
Firefoot - I agree she's throwing wishy washy suspicion around
Shasta
Eomer
Lottie
the phantom
Nogrod
Kath
Gwath
McCaber
Nerwen
Mith


Wolfy
Agan
Sally
Boro
- he's starting to rub me the wrong way really bad toDay; he just seems terribly fake (sorry muffin)

That was very substantial. I don't know if I should really just go with my gut/ the few points I've noticed and accept this is a different kind of game, or whether I should feel properly shamed about my lack of analytical thinking and do something about it.

I mean, I DO think I'm onto something with Agan so it's not like my brain's not working, but I'm still not very happy about the fact that my suspicion list looks very similar to how it looked like late yesterDay - toDay has hardly changed anything so far.

Sorry if this post seems like it was written by a scatterbrain, that's how I feel. (I've had a long day and too little sleep three nights in a row. Definitely going to bed earlier today. Meaning, soon.)


edit. xed with everyone
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:54 PM   #334
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So...yesterday I was feeling that Greenie made sense and this hasn't changed today. Nerwen and Loslote also seem mostly clear and helpful - (although having said that, Loslote's post 260 completely lost me, and did Nerwen explain her missing the vote yesterday?).
Rikae and Lommy fluctuate between clarity and obscurity. Firefoot seems to me to be chasing red herrings but that doesn't necessarily mean she's guilty - in a mad game like this, one woman's red herring is another's vital clue. Legate confused me yesterday and still continues to do so today. Half the time he seems to be setting up an argument only to knock it down. Boro and Mac make me uneasy. The rest, I don't know.

Having said all that, I am still pursuing the thesis I began to set up this morning. Yes, the Nog bandwaggon probably contains at least one wolf but it is very difficult to decide who they/he/she was. Aganzir looks the most ropey to me, not just because of her behaviour and not just because the Nog bandwaggon saved her, but because the Nog bandwaggon only began once he'd named her as someone he would vote for.
So, because unlike some of my fellow Europeans I do not have the steely stamina to stay at my keyboard til dawn, I'm going to vote now.
++Aganzir

edit: x-post with Lommy
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Old 06-04-2015, 04:03 PM   #335
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Okay folks, I really need to go to sleep, my brain is slowing down minute by minute.

I agree the dead should make the lynches their priority as they are a lot more informative about the wolves' identities (I mean we KNOW the wolves killed the phantom and Rune with 95% certainty) and thus check Nogrod toNight.

++Aganzir

Her perspective yesterDay still looks very wolvish, and even though she's been chill and conciliatory toDay, I'm not buying the idea that all her defensiveness yesterDay was only due to her tiredness. Also if she was a wolf and almost got lynched yesterDay, being nice and steering away from yesterDay's controversy would be exactly the smart thing to do. Which of course doesn't *make* her a wolf, but it's worth keeping in mind, especially for those who feel like letting her off the hook because of her less weird behaviour toDay.

Good night folks! /Lommy out


edit: xed with Lalaith
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Old 06-04-2015, 04:05 PM   #336
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
If I was the seer, I wouldn't be almost sure that you're a wolf.
Ooooh! Take heed, folks, my dear fellow wolf Macalaure is trying to bus me!

Quote:
Hey, it happens to the very best of them.
Not to me though. I am beauty, I am grace, I will rip apart your face.
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Old 06-04-2015, 04:05 PM   #337
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Oh, one more thing before I go. I'm still chewing over that narration... the 'itch' mentioned - could it be linked to Pippin and the palantir? Remember Gandalf saying to him "If you feel an itch in your palms again, tell me of it!"
Kuru spoke of the role having vulnerabilities, and indeed, looking into the palantir was dangerous...
Anyway, I'm a fine one for going on about others chasing red herrings...I think I need to stop this and go to bed....
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Old 06-04-2015, 04:06 PM   #338
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Well, I have a minute and neither of them posted much, so:

Loslote:

Day 1

12 - Banter
22 - Arguing against tying the vote. Interesting reasoning: if we can lynch a wolf from each pack, the wolves will turn on each other instead of trying to kill gifteds, so we should take a chance to lynch a wolf, or so I gather. Seems an odd line of reasoning - we want to lynch a wolf in general, after all, and the wolves are against each other already (or at least, want to whittle the other pack down), and even if they are down one, they are most likely to prioritize the seer while s/he is at large in any event. So, odd. Maybe wolfish, just for thinking in terms of whittling down (the other) wolf pack.
23 - Clarifies about responding to phantom.
28 - False reveal is unlikely, but possible. Concerned about the dead deceiving us.
48 - Village has a 25% chance of lynching a wolf, wolves at night have a 15% chance. Actually wrong (though I didn't realize it at the time) because of the two kills: it's actually 27.75 that the wolves kill a wolf. Also, the wolves had a higher chance of killing a gifted than the 25% she gives: 43.75% (wow).
Could just be mistaken math. I thought it was right at first, too. However, it does mislead.
54 -Against a tie because of last post, also against letting dead decide lynch (so that people leave trails with their votes).
196 -Doesn't think Agan is suspicious, suspects Nog. Pre-Nogawagon.
205 -Don't rule Nog, Agan, Lommy out for being in the spotlight. because it's their playing style.
220 - Votes Nog.

Overall, looks safe, fairly consistent in pursuing Nog (little too consistent? I'm not sure), said some misleading things. Bad vibes.

Day 2

250 - Sally's theory about Rune being killed for looking wolfish not too far fetched. Well, it is far fetched (says me). Far-fetched theories are a specialty of Sally's, though, so I find Lottie's defense of it (and subsequent suspicion of Morm) much more worrying.
260 - Theorizing that a third packmate (not Morm) was implicated by Rune's death, and Morm's trying to protect that person. Ok, this is getting really convoluted and is based on something unlikely (Rune being a wolf) in the first place. Looks like trying to patch together a theory after the fact. Innocents can do that too sometimes, of course, to back up a hunch or an unformed impression. No conclusion.
293 - Continues defending her theory. Now, I agree with her that wolves don't just go for gifteds, but it remains their top priority, and Rune looking gifted seems to have more basis in, well, his actual posts. Her "the other pack went for phantom" argument seems especially odd. She's accusing morm of being a wolf who knows the truth of the night kill, but that's actually the feeling I get from her. That is, maybe her pack actually did think Rune was a wolf, so that theory seems most reasonable to her, and therefore morm seems like an easy (and possibly enemy-wolfish) target for speaking against it?
296 - Votes morm "for reasons stated above".

Conclusion: There's much to raise an eyebrow here. I could vote for Lottie.

Edit: X'd with Shasta onwards.
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Old 06-04-2015, 04:27 PM   #339
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Old 06-04-2015, 04:35 PM   #340
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A list.

GREEN ZONE
Nerwen - no change from yesterDay, reasonable, no trouble and all
Lommy - more or less likewise
Mith - certainly no Wolfy vibes, seems like her innocent self

YELLOW ZONE
Macalaure - see the end of my post above, also his vote yesterDay was of the type easily cast by a Wolf (of course if we knew the roles of the lynchees, it would be easier to make more conclusions based on this, e.g. if that was a save attempt or whatever. But it was a bandwagon in any case and Mac was in the thick of it.)
Rikae - kind of a similar case, has certainly commited and reasonable posts; it is true she could totally be following some very well-thought sneaky hidden agenda with them. But I do not have enough that would make me cast a vote for her so far.
Lalaith - toDay pretty decent, and the point about the possible mention of a hidden role was good; of course a Wolf could try to ask info from the village as well, but still, makes me think better of her
Morm - there was the last post, but otherwise seems fairly good and reasonable and all
McCaber - mostly it's about the vote: he is the same case as Mac, a vote placement that would be typical for a Wolf on a wagon.
Nilp - I still have the "fishy-fishy" feel from his posts, but it really isn't anything concrete.
Sally - I don't find her suspicious, the stuff morm also pointed out was weird, but not necessarily suspicious in my opinion.
shasta - at times there's been a bit of "meh", but generally not Wolfy-looking.
Form - I have been convinced by the idea that a Wolf wouldn't self-vote, although I am kind of beginning to waver, also with the possibilities that the following wagons were attempt to save him. I am still not very sure I believe that would be the way for the Wolves to behave, though. In any case, I need to Form a better opinion on him (ho, ho, ho).
Eomer - I need to Eomer a better opinion on him (*embarassed cough*). There is just quite little for me to go with.

ORANGE ZONE
Boro - I don't know. He is behaving very... unconspicuously in this game? A bit too noncommital, which worries me.
Firefoot - see also my post above. Could just as well be in the yellow zone though, it is more a matter of distinction, I think it would be nice to reread the posts etc to get better opinion, but that's about it.
Loslote - I didn't like the sorta defensive attitude adopted in her reaction to morm's reaction to sally.
Aganzir - I am wary of her, but to be honest not to any large extent. It is also partly the traditional anti-Aganzir precaution, because every time I give her a pass, then she is guilty. But just for the record, if one of the packs has her and Greenie, then shame on you, Kuru, because that's like the oldest pack in the book. (If it was her and Lommy yesterDay doing a wolf-on-wolf show, though, then that's at least new trick in the book.)

RED ZONE
Curiously enough it seems the only file in this zone seems to be A Little Green, as I stated above: the very happy, nice attitude, combined with noncommital posts which at the same time include subtle nudges a la "the exchange between sally and morm is suspicious, just so that you know, village, but I didn't say anything".

GREY ZONE aka effective no-shows
Gwath
Kath

(I will become a poet.)

EDIT: x-ed since my last
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Old 06-04-2015, 04:43 PM   #341
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
About the secret role. My first thought was that the itching may refer to a cursed villager. But now that people mention the Paths of the Dead, maybe it is another person who can go to the dead thread (under certain circumstances?) and maybe bring someone back with him?
That would be really nice. Because at least as far as I can tell, the Dead thread is a very nice feature, but not really of much help to us here, and the way to get any info about roles in this game gets close to zero.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
Ooooh! Take heed, folks, my dear fellow wolf Macalaure is trying to bus me!
Why can I totally imagine this "joke" not really being a joke at all. Honestly!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith View Post
Oh, one more thing before I go. I'm still chewing over that narration... the 'itch' mentioned - could it be linked to Pippin and the palantir? Remember Gandalf saying to him "If you feel an itch in your palms again, tell me of it!"
Kuru spoke of the role having vulnerabilities, and indeed, looking into the palantir was dangerous...
Anyway, I'm a fine one for going on about others chasing red herrings...I think I need to stop this and go to bed....
So, a Seer who... dies upon use? Or somesuch? (Actually, that would be pretty thematic.) Well, like I said, hopefully the narrations might keep giving us more?

Anyway... probably going to vote and go to sleep now, too. At least should.
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Old 06-04-2015, 04:50 PM   #342
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++Greenie

For that matter, I find it interesting literally nobody shares this suspicion. Does it even cross your mind, folks? Granted, we are a big village (still) and there is a lot to choose from, of course, and many people seem to be suspicious a lot of certain people, but Greenie figures there very seldom, or in practically not at all.

And I really think toMorrow we could employ some scheme of trying to communicate between the Dead thread and our thread via the extra vote or whatever. Because at least so far it seems to me, it is really difficult to get any certainities here. I am really beginning to consider that the Wolves did get rid of the phantom because however overinflated his scheme was, it might have helped the village to get some advantage.

Anyway, good Night.
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Old 06-04-2015, 04:59 PM   #343
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For that matter, I find it interesting literally nobody shares this suspicion.
I kind of do, for similar reasons as you (as I'm writing on my miserable failure of a list that just can't finish itself).
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:01 PM   #344
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Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
For that matter, I find it interesting literally nobody shares this suspicion. Does it even cross your mind, folks? Granted, we are a big village (still) and there is a lot to choose from, of course, and many people seem to be suspicious a lot of certain people, but Greenie figures there very seldom, or in practically not at all.
I said something about it, I think, but between her and Agan I voted for the one I felt was worse. Still, having two wolfpacks around means that the interaction could be hostile on both sides.

I don't have a lot of time toDay, and things have been far too hectic on my end, but I believe I have enough to go on to vote again.
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:10 PM   #345
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On Lottie

#22 - First real post, where Lottie comes out as fairly anti-tie as regards the Day 1 lynch.

#28 - Warns against thinking a false Seer-reveal by the wolves is impossible, and also warns against trusting the dead thread implicitly. This second point isn't one I disagree with, necessarily, because everything she mentions is possible -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
I honestly had not thought of this, and it sounds really useful, but I am concerned about trusting the Dead Thread so much - what if they skew the vote? I don't think it's super likely, but all it would take is one wrong vote on the part of the Dead - maybe because of a wolf majority, maybe because of a lack of participation from the dead ordos, maybe from a misled and mistaken Dead - to deceive the whole village for, potentially, the rest of the game.
- but I'm not certain it's as dire a possibility. If we set up a complicated system for the dead to tell us if X or Y is innocent or wolvish, then it becomes more of an issue, but I'm not sure that who receives the dead thread vote is going to be... as big a deal, I guess is what I'm trying to say. It just came off as oddly doom-and-gloom for my tastes. I suppose if I were looking at it through wolf-colored glasses then it could be a Lottiewolf laying the groundwork to discredit the information coming from the dead thread because she knows it's going to be primarily innocent-based, but that's a bit of a reach.

#48 - Some math that's slightly in favor of lynching on Day 1 (or, rather, against not lynching Day 1 for reasons of having the wolves make the first move.)

#54 - More about not wanting to tie the vote, especially before the Dead thread becomes active. Also mentions that not giving the dead the power to dictate the lynch, but rather setting up a system through which they can communicate information to us, is probably the best solution. There's really nothing I disagree with here.

#196 - Most suspicious of Nog for being "conciliatory". This is really her first big suspicion of the day, and while I myself voted Nog I can't really wrap my head around this reasoning -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
Honestly, the person who jumped out at me most was Nog, who seemed to be pretty conciliatory despite being firmly planted on one side of the biggest debate of the Day.
Some help understanding this would be appreciated, because the way I read it I don't really find it that suspicious.

#202 - Would like to vote for Nog if there's a chance he'll be lynched, but is willing to vote Agan to ensure a lynch. I don't really find this that bad; I'd probably have done the same (sorry, Agan! )

#205 - Cautions Eomer against dismissing someone just because they're loud on the first day.

#220 - Votes Nog. It's clear now that she did cross with Phantom, so at the time it's assumed she was placing the second vote on Nog. It's worth noting that there was indeed a big upswing in support for voting Nog at this time; Eomer, Phantom, Sally, and myself had mentioned possibly voting for him at this point.

Next day...

#250 - Defends Sally against Morm, regarding Sally's theory on a Runewolf being picked off last night. On rereading, it does seem a bit jumpy of Morm to come out so strongly against Sally there. I may have to look at him next, time permitting. Regarding Lottie herself, she says she's suspicious of Morm here. Nothing really jumps out at me.

#260 - Speculates that it's not morm himself that's implicated by Rune being killed, but rather possibly Greenie or Form. Links Rune and morm by way of playstyle during the first day, which is an interesting connection to make; I'm not yet how relevant it is, but it's certainly one perspective.

#293 - This point -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
There are two reasons why a wolf pack might decide to kill someone in this game: a) they think the person is a Gifted, and b) they think the person was a member of the other pack - and yes, in that order, I fully acknowledge that.
- is a pretty good one, in my opinion, although I'm always a bit iffy about hard and fast rules about what wolves will and will not do in a given situation if one is not secretly a wolf themselves (). However, I tend to agree with what she says here. She also thinks here that Phantom biting the bullet last night means that it's likely neither wolfpack had a solid lead on a gifted last night; honestly I dunno if that's the case. That bit is an awful lot of speculation.

This bit, though -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
The fact that you (morm) were so quick to jump down Sally's throat for suggesting it and are so confident now about what the wolves are thinking
- strikes me as a bit hypocritical, though. Weren't you just talking in rather certain terms about why the wolves would make any particular kill? I can't decide if Lottie actually, innocently suspects Morm for this or if she's reaching for any reason to for its own sake.

#296 - Votes morm.



Thoughts:

Throughout most of this readthrough I was thinking Lottie looked pretty innocent. It wasn't until I got down to the end where I noticed a discrepancy and began to second-guess myself where she's concerned. However, I feel uncomfortable voting for her since she's already said she likely won't be back today, and I could use some clarification on one or two things she's said, so I won't necessarily be voting for her today.

Now to catch up on what's happened while I was typing that...
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:19 PM   #346
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So my brain isn't working and I can't get anything done and keep absentmindedly refreshing the thread to see if anyone has said anything I could reply to with a one-liner.

Half an hour later. This really isn't working. So all you're getting is very general impressions and my sincere apologies and no actual evidence.

GUILTY
  • Macalaure - he's off and I'm not comfortable with him. At the same time I'm wondering if a wolf would presume to be so convinced about my guilt.
  • McCaber - I didn't like how he interpreted my part in me and Lommy's fight.
  • Thinlómien - strong and overtly excited reaction to my joke, and tries to make it sound like I used tiredness as my only excuse when I in fact said I got really upset because I felt she was being intentionally rude.
  • Greenie - now I happen to know she's had a lot of time in her hands because she's been home with the most awful cough (I can occasionally hear her in the next room - yes all Finnish Barrow-Downers live together at one point or other), and she's made loads of good points. But amidst all this she's too spotless and pure, and butter truly wouldn't melt in her mouth. And it's the not ruffling any feathers part that makes me wary, most of all.
It feels a little lazy to suspect only people who have voted for me but that's apparently the way it goes today. I want to take another quick look at them before voting (not that I'm likely to post anything about it unless something strikes me as absolutely vital, I can't keep my eyes open).

INNOCENT
  • Formendacil - his whining, volunteering and self-vote on DAY 1 looked reasonably good.
  • Rikae - I'm liking their points so far and seems generally innocent, so I'm generally happy to keep them around for longer.
  • Firefoot - seems reasonable to me, nothing to worry about so far.
  • Mithalwen - I wasn't happy that she voted for me yesterday but other than that I have nothing against her.
  • Legate - seems more innocent than not. I think he said something weird on DAY 1 but I'm yawning too much to go back to check it right now.

EITHER
  • Loslote - She felt a little off to me on DAY 1 but I thought her point about no solid gifted clues was a decent one. Other than that no idea.
  • sally - I didn't entirely understand where she was coming from with Rune but I didn't see it as obviously wolfish, and I think she'd have been happy to get rid of me if she's a wolf. It's hard to tell though because she hasn't been talking about me a whole lot and that's usually my way of telling how it's going with her.
  • Boro - looking okay but I have too little to go on.
  • Gwathagor - I messaged him on facebook to ask if he's playing.
  • Eomer - has escaped my notice so far. Sneaky.
  • Nerwen - very observant but stays in the shadows
  • Lalaith - inclined towards innocent a little more than guilty, but (EDIT: apparently I got distracted here - I was going to say something like) hasn't been talking a lot and I feel she's focused a bit too much on me and Lommy's spat.
  • mormegil - mystifying but reasonable, no idea.
  • Nilp - no read.
  • Shasta - it struck me the wrong way when he said he would've felt better about me if I'd only said I voted Lommy yesterday in retaliation, but not much - it just felt a little bit wolfish to me. Other than that I have nothing.
  • Kath - have you forgotten you're playing dear?
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:26 PM   #347
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[*]Thinlómien - strong and overtly excited reaction to my joke, and tries to make it sound like I used tiredness as my only excuse when I in fact said I got really upset because I felt she was being intentionally rude.
So wait, you spend a lot of time toDay trying to smooth things over with her, and now she's back on your guilty list?

I'm running out of time and I might not be back before DL, but for me not a lot has changed.

++ Aganzir
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:29 PM   #348
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I apologize if I seem wishy-washy; the real problem is that I just don't have enough time to dig through the massive number of posts in this thread to make good analyses, but I don't want to be absent either, so I've mostly just been posting impressions. I have some time tonight to spend on it - we'll see how useful it is, though. My WW muscles are rusty and as I look for patterns in posts I just feel lost without any concrete knowledge of the identities of the dead...

I'm still not convinced of Agan's guilt, though the last minute rush to save her (?) and lynch Nog does bother me (this is more suspicious to me than anything Agan herself has done).
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:32 PM   #349
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I'm basically at a loss. There's no reference point, because I don't know anything about anyone. I'm just waiting to find out if the Dead will oblige with revealing Nogrod's role, and then DAY 3 getting some scheme together to relay that information.

I wouldn't want to lynch Rikae, Shasta, Lommy, or Legate today. I'm getting innocent vibes on top of they've been doing more than me so far. I'm afraid I'm pretty useless without a focal point and without knowing anything about the Dead.

Of those with votes, I could go for any of them, in the sense I don't feel anything wrong or dreadful if Agan, Mac, Greenie, morm, or Lottie were lynched. I could put sally in this group too, because I just haven't found anything trustworthy about them. Granted, I wouldn't trust anyone in that group, and untrustworthy doesn't necessarily mean wolvish. It just means they (like how I usually am) are usually up to something, and whether that's good or bad I have no idea.

How about Gwath? If he doesn't vote today is he mod-fired. And I know Kath voted yesterday but she's MIA today.
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:34 PM   #350
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++Mac

I have some RL projects that need completing and then getting kids to bed and all. I may be back before the deadline but I'd like to make sure to get a vote in. Mac still doesn't sit right with me though he attempted to. He seems off. I'm still suspicious of Sally and Agan but more so of Mac. There are others on the list that are working their way up a bit i.e. Shasta and others that are going down i.e. Legate.
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:35 PM   #351
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So wait, you spend a lot of time toDay trying to smooth things over with her, and now she's back on your guilty list?
I apologised for having upset her. I never said she looked innocent.
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:46 PM   #352
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Okay, some lists:

Innocent?
Nerwen - seems very reasonable
Form - the vote for himself seems very ordo-ish
Rikae - I suppose I'll get harped on for wishy-washiness again here, but after looking at her posts I don't know what was setting off warning bells except maybe her tone sometimes.
morm - I'm following his thinking most of the time and mostly agreeing
B88 - Acting very consistently
shasta - Just can't find anything suspicious

I keep going back and forth/can't get a read at all
Mith - no read
Eomer - not enough posts (weird because I remember Eomer as a prolific poster - but then again, I used to be to - life changes, I guess); the Nogrod vote is a little suspicious to me
Lal - haven't spent much time looking at her posts, maybe seems okay
Nilp - no clue
Kath - Every other thing she does I change my mind. The vote for Form is strange
Lommy - I don't understand her spat with Agan
Greenie - no read
Legate - seems okay?
Sally - Her posts also seem mostly okay, mostly here for Nogrod vote
Gwath - no posts
Agan - See the comment on Lommy

Suspicious
Lottie - See my comment at the start of the day - maybe chasing this tie thing really isn't useful, but she just feels suspicious to me
Macalaure - My suspicion of him has grown since the start of the day
McCaber - hasn't done anything to change my feelings today.

At this point I'm probably going to vote for Mac, but am open to persuasion.
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:46 PM   #353
Aganzir
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Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
tally

Lottie - morm
Nerwen - Mac
Greenie - Agan
Lalaith - Agan (2)
Lommy - Agan (3)
Legate - Greenie
McCab - Agan (4)
morm - Mac (2)

I'll be around for a little while longer because I need to pack for my weekend outing, but unless something drastic happens, I'll vote for Greenie. I'll be equally happy to vote for Mac to save my skin though because this bandwagon is ridiculous.
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Old 06-04-2015, 05:58 PM   #354
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
I'll be around for a little while longer because I need to pack for my weekend outing, but unless something drastic happens, I'll vote for Greenie. I'll be equally happy to vote for Mac to save my skin though because this bandwagon is ridiculous.
Well, you've kind of brought this attention on yourself, which isn't necessarily a bad thing (wanting to attract attention). But you also shouldn't be surprised when that attention gets turned against you.
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Old 06-04-2015, 06:03 PM   #355
Aganzir
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Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Aganzir is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
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Well, you've kind of brought this attention on yourself, which isn't necessarily a bad thing (wanting to attract attention). But you also shouldn't be surprised when that attention gets turned against you.
*makes a mental joke to stop joking forever so nobody can misinterpret me* and my god that was an honest typo and probably better left that way.

But if I die I'll at least get to be with the only person who understands me.
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Old 06-04-2015, 06:04 PM   #356
Eomer of the Rohirrim
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Right, I'll probably be around from now until closing if anyone wants a chat.

I've basically just been despairing about game mechanics all day and wondering how in Middle-earth we should be playing this game with so little info. But anyway:

The renewed suspicion of Aganzir today is taking much of my attention; she doesn't seem overly suspicious to me but she's once again the top suspect. Legate's lonely vendetta against Green is very curious and interesting: there's a fair chance that his intentions are pure but it reminds me all too much of a tactic I've pursued, with evil motive, in the past - focus with laserlike precision on a random villager of whom no-one else is taking notice.

So many people here it's hard for things to stand out.
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Old 06-04-2015, 06:20 PM   #357
Aganzir
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Originally Posted by Lommy
The Good
Rikae - so far so good, seems calm and collected which (sorry dear) Wolfkae often isn't
A setup? I don't think I've ever remained calm through any game, ever. Day 1, sure, but eventually I will get mad at someone and then Lommy springs the trap!
So I went back to check something before bedtime and noticed this. And I know it's not exactly related but it also kind of feels like what Lommy did to me - pushed some familiar buttons and was then "surprised" I reacted.
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Old 06-04-2015, 06:24 PM   #358
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Am back, am catching up to two pages of material. My post after this will be pretty touch and go--well, at least Legate already analysed the phantom killing possibilities, with roughly the same conclusions as I had (except I had pretty tree diagrams in mine.)
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Old 06-04-2015, 06:25 PM   #359
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Shield

I've just gone back and read his posts and, honestly, Legate's pursuit of Green is stranger than I had thought.

I would not presume to speculate on Green's loyalties at this stage, as I can hardly gauge a thing from her posts; I would not find it strange for anyone to have a hunch that she might be evil. It is the conviction in Legate's posts, however - constantly referring to her as most suspicious - which makes me take notice. Seems like he's acting as if he has a stronger case than he does.

Such behaviour is, of course, suicidal for a seer; but smart daytime survival tactics from a villager.
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Old 06-04-2015, 06:26 PM   #360
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
*makes a mental joke to stop joking forever so nobody can misinterpret me* and my god that was an honest typo and probably better left that way.

But if I die I'll at least get to be with the only person who understands me.
Come now, you know how this dance works. You think it's some cheap injustice because you get caught by a slip of the fingers, a lapse of focus of not carefully combing your words. And the thieves at your door say "ah-ha we got you!" and that's all they harp on because that's all they have. But sometimes that is enough. We both understand the feeling of being robbed right under our nose, it makes our blood boil, but in the end what can you do? Tip your cap and silently think, next time we shall have a different dance.
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